Group 1 - The economic transformation has entered a "new stage" since 2022, characterized by a downward trend in the contribution of traditional sectors like real estate to the economy, leading to a divergence in economic indicators and a "two extremes" situation in industries [2][8][25] - The pressure in this new stage is increasingly focused on terminal demand, resulting in a weaker CPI while PPI remains under pressure, with overcapacity shifting towards downstream sectors [2][14] - The traditional policy framework's effectiveness is declining, necessitating a comprehensive "policy innovation" to adapt to the new economic landscape, which began in late September 2024 [2][36] Group 2 - The external shocks, particularly during the tariff phases, have accelerated domestic industrial upgrades, with significant shifts observed in industries like automotive and electronics [3][66] - During the Tariff 1.0 phase, industries transitioned from "import assembly" to self-sufficiency in core components, leading to a decrease in low-value-added exports and an increase in high-value-added exports [3][66][77] - Tariff 2.0 has primarily impacted low-value-added consumer goods, while high-value-added sectors have shown resilience, indicating that the tariff impacts align with the direction of industrial transformation [3][99][107] Group 3 - The new policy framework emphasizes high-quality development, focusing on high-level openness, "dual circulation," and sustainable growth, with a shift from investment-driven to people-centered approaches [4][122] - The "anti-involution" initiative is seen as a structural reform on the supply side, gaining increasing attention from both government and industry since late 2024 [4][36] - The service sector is identified as a critical area for absorbing structural employment pressures during the transformation process, with significant support needed to address supply shortages [5][54]

Group 1: Key Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of "disappearing inventory" in the U.S. economy, highlighting that despite significant imports, inventory accumulation has not been substantial [4][5][17] - It raises questions about the sustainability of the U.S. strategy of "importing heavily" and its implications for future economic performance [5][17] - The article also addresses the challenges faced by the unemployment insurance system in China, suggesting improvements to better support unemployed individuals [6][8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The May PMI data indicates a deepening divergence between domestic and international economic conditions, with improvements noted in domestic demand sectors such as consumer goods and equipment manufacturing [8][16] - The article mentions that the new export index for May was relatively low, reflecting ongoing challenges in international trade [8] - It highlights the legal challenges faced by Trump's tariffs, which could impact trade dynamics and economic policies [12][22] Group 3: Policy Developments - The article outlines China's commitment to high-quality cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative, emphasizing infrastructure, market rules, and payment systems [15] - It details recent diplomatic engagements by Chinese Premier Li Qiang with ASEAN and Gulf Cooperation Council countries to enhance economic integration and cooperation [15] - The article notes the introduction of a five-year multiple-entry visa for eligible business personnel from ASEAN countries to facilitate trade and investment [15]

Group 1: High-Quality Belt and Road Initiative - The Chinese government aims to discuss a high-quality action plan for the Belt and Road Initiative with ASEAN and GCC countries, focusing on infrastructure, market rules, and payment systems [2][4]. Group 2: Anti-Monopoly and Fair Competition - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee emphasizes the need to enhance fair competition governance and address new challenges in the market [4][5]. Group 3: Modern Enterprise System - The Central Committee and State Council released opinions to improve the modern enterprise system in China, focusing on income distribution, management compensation, and corporate governance [8][9]. Group 4: Marketization of Resource and Environmental Factors - The government issued opinions to establish a market-oriented system for carbon emissions and water rights, aiming for a more active trading market by 2027 [11][12]. Group 5: Employment Public Service Model - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and other departments proposed a precise employment public service model to enhance job-seeking support and streamline employment services [14][15]. Group 6: Smart Supply Chain Development - Eight departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, released a plan to accelerate the development of smart supply chains across key sectors, aiming to reduce logistics costs and enhance supply chain integration [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's unemployment insurance system and how it can be improved to better support unemployed individuals through a closed-loop system of "ensuring livelihood, promoting training, and assisting employment" [1] Group 1: Current State of Unemployment Insurance System - The unemployment insurance fund primarily consists of insurance premiums and plays a significant role in counter-cyclical adjustment, with expenditures increasing by 22.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024 [2][9] - The fund's income is mainly derived from unemployment insurance premiums, with 89.5% of income from 2018 to 2023 coming from employer and employee contributions [2][18] - Expenditures focus on basic living guarantees for unemployed individuals, such as unemployment benefits and medical insurance fee payments, which accounted for 32% and 8% of total expenditures from 2018 to 2023, respectively [2][24] Group 2: Challenges Faced by the Unemployment Insurance System - The coverage rate of unemployment insurance in China exceeded 50% in 2023, but the coverage for key groups such as migrant workers remains significantly low, with only 19% of new flexible employment positions covered by social insurance [4][33] - The beneficiary rate of unemployment insurance has been below 5% overall, with only 3% in 2023, indicating that less than 15% of the unemployed population benefits from the insurance [4][39] - Some regions face significant pressure on the balance of unemployment insurance funds, with 9 regions having a sustainability period of less than 24 months in 2023 [5][48] Group 3: International Experience in Unemployment Insurance Policies - International unemployment insurance systems can be categorized into four types: mandatory unemployment insurance, non-mandatory unemployment insurance, unemployment relief, and dual unemployment insurance systems [6][74] - Germany's dual unemployment insurance mechanism combines unemployment insurance and unemployment relief, covering over 90% of the workforce, while Japan also has a dual system with substantial fiscal support for unemployment policies [7][65] - The U.S. system features a federal-state dual structure with flexible tax rates based on employers' historical layoff records, incentivizing job stability [7][71] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance the effectiveness of the unemployment insurance system, it is recommended to expand coverage, especially for new employment forms, and to improve the beneficiary rate by optimizing application conditions [7][75] - Implementing a model of "experience-rated" premiums could allow for localized adjustments, increasing policy flexibility [7][75] - Gradually establishing a dual system of "basic insurance + unemployment relief" could provide better financial support for long-term unemployed individuals [7][75]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent judicial challenge to Trump's tariffs, where the U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the IEEPA were illegal, infringing on Congress's trade legislative authority [31] - Following the ruling, Trump appealed to the Federal Circuit Court, which issued a stay on the lower court's decision, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect during the appeal process [31] - The article highlights the performance of major asset classes, noting that U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, saw increases of 2.0% and 1.9% respectively, while the Nikkei 225 rose by 2.2% [2][3] Group 2 - The article reports that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points to 4.41%, indicating a decline in bond yields across developed markets [13] - The dollar index increased by 0.3% to 99.44, while the offshore yuan strengthened to 7.2065 against the dollar [17][24] - Commodity prices generally declined, with WTI crude oil down 1.2% to $60.8 per barrel and COMEX gold down 1.8% to $3289.4 per ounce [26][29] Group 3 - The article notes that the April PCE inflation in the U.S. was in line with market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [37] - The meeting between Powell and Trump did not include discussions on interest rate cuts, emphasizing that the Fed's decisions are independent of presidential influence [33][55] - The article mentions that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were slightly below expectations, while continuing claims were higher than anticipated, indicating potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [43]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 2025年初以来，美国大幅"抢进口"，但"累库存"现象相对滞后。展望未来，美国"抢进口"能否持续，"安 全"库存水平会否提升？ 热点思考： 美国经济："消失的"库存？ 一、2025年初以来，美国累库幅度大幅落后于"超额进口" 年初以来，美国"抢进口"现象极为显著。 特朗普胜选以来，随着加征关税预期升温，美国"抢进口"现象 极为显著。中国出口、美国进口、港口数据对"抢进口"现象均有所反映。5月12日中美日内瓦谈判以来， 中国-美国集装箱预订量大幅提升，新一轮"抢进口"已拉开序幕。 但是，一季度美国补库幅度远弱于商品进口，库存"去哪儿了"？ 美国一季度GDP中，商品进口拖累经济 增速5个百分点（环比年化），但库存仅拉动GDP增速2.6个百分点，幅度仅为商品进口的一半。从月度 数据角度来看，美国商品进口增速也远超库存增速。 二、如何理解美国库存与进口的分歧？一季度内需稳健+库存统计滞后 内需韧性和统计的滞后性可解释"消失"的库存。 1）一季度，美国多数行业库存增速提升，但由于美国 内需保持韧性，尤其是投资需求，导致库销比相对稳定。3月，美国商业库销比仅为1.3 ...

Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [2][10][52] - The new export index remains low, while domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI shows overall improvement, with production and new order indices rising by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion threshold, while the new order index remains in contraction territory, indicating faster production but weaker demand [2][10] - Industries with high domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, have seen PMIs rise by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [2][21] - Conversely, export-dependent sectors like textiles and chemicals have underperformed, with production and new order indices below the critical point [2][21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, with the construction sector experiencing a notable decline due to weak real estate performance [2][67] - The construction PMI fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51%, while civil engineering activities are accelerating, as indicated by a PMI of 62.3% [29][67] - Service sector PMI saw a marginal increase to 50.2%, driven by improved activity in tourism and dining during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, necessitating close monitoring of fiscal policies' impact on domestic demand [45] - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs has created a temporary freeze on tariff enforcement, adding to the external uncertainties [45] - Service consumption and infrastructure investment are expected to be key areas for fiscal support, potentially enhancing domestic demand [45]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent U.S. legislative actions, particularly the tax reduction bill passed by the House of Representatives, and its potential impact on the economy, including deficits and interest rates [6][10][17]. Group 1: Deep Topics - The article analyzes the recent U.S. court ruling regarding Trump's tariffs, questioning the legality and future implications of such tariffs on trade [3][7]. - It highlights the ongoing "pressure test" series on tariffs, focusing on how these legal and legislative changes may affect market dynamics [6][7]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article raises concerns about an impending "storm" in U.S. Treasury bonds, suggesting that the tax reduction bill could exacerbate deficits and influence interest rates [9][10]. - It discusses new employment trends based on recent wage data, identifying sectors experiencing wage increases and those showing signs of "anti-involution" [11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policies following the tax bill's passage, suggesting that new policies may help stabilize fiscal spending and support economic recovery [13][14]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes a continuous increase in automobile sales, indicating a strong performance in the automotive sector despite broader economic challenges [15][16]. - It mentions that industrial production remains stable, although infrastructure projects have seen a decline, reflecting mixed signals in economic recovery [16][18].

Group 1 - The core feature of the 2025 fiscal policy is the significant "front-loading" of fiscal debt financing and expenditure structure, which has stabilized economic performance in the first half of the year [1][2][4] - From January to April 2025, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2%, indicating strong fiscal support for the economy [2][8] - The growth in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily supported by the rapid issuance of government debt, particularly treasury bonds, with net financing of 4.8 trillion yuan from January to April, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year [3][21] Group 2 - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a planned net financing scale of 13.86 trillion yuan for government debt, of which 6.3 trillion yuan has been financed by the end of May, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [4][32] - The issuance of treasury bonds has accelerated, with 42.7% of the budget target achieved by May 24, 2025, significantly higher than the average of 16.9% from 2020 to 2024 [3][21] - The government is expected to maintain high levels of net financing through the third quarter, with projections of 2.3 trillion yuan in the second quarter and 3.8 trillion yuan in the third quarter [4][35] Group 3 - The government may introduce incremental policies to smooth fiscal expenditure and ensure the achievement of annual economic goals, especially given uncertainties in economic recovery in the second half of the year [5][37] - Policy tools such as budgetary and non-budgetary measures will be utilized to stabilize economic fluctuations, with a focus on service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment as key areas for fiscal support [6][50] - The government aims to enhance consumer spending by reducing burdens and increasing income, with significant potential for recovery in service consumption, which currently stands at only 87.7% of historical trends [50][51]

报告正文 2. 政策跟踪：制造业是国民经济的重要支柱 2.1 总书记河南考察：制造业是国民经济的重要支柱 5月19-20日，习近平总书记对"十五五"规划编制工作作出重要指示并赴河南进行考察调研。习近平总书 记指出，"十五五"规划编制要坚持科学、民主、依法决策，企业要根据规划调整战略，把握政策红利，推动 产业结构优化升级。在河南考察时，总书记强调，制造业是国民经济的重要支柱，推进中国式现代化必须保 持制造业合理比重，同时，现代制造业离不开科技赋能，要大力加强技术攻关，走自主创新的发展路子。 2.2 商务部例行发布会：做强国内市场、促进消费 5月22日，商务部召开例行新闻发布会，剔除做强国内市场，促进消费，更好发挥消费对经济循环的牵 引带动作用。发布会上，商务部剔除将加快实施提振消费专项行动，推进促消费政策落实；加快完善现代商 贸流通体系，支持再生资源回收和二手商品流通，推进电商高质量发展；加快推进内外贸一体化，帮扶企业 有效应对外部冲击。对于刚刚结束的APEC第三十一届贸易部长会议，发言人表示中方愿与各方深化经济合 作，加快区域经济一体化。 | 时间 | 事件 | 内容概要 | 主要内容 加快实施提振消费专项行 ...