证券研究报告 美光科技 (MU US) | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 27 日│美国 | 半导体 | 美光于美东时间 6/25 盘后发布 FY25Q3 财报，盘后先涨约 7%后收窄至 1%， 主要系营收盈利指引均超预期，但 NAND 产能利用不足，美光宣布到 FY25 年底将削减 NAND 晶圆产能 10%以平衡供需。此外，鉴于美光股价从 4 月 初关税影响的低位到现在已翻倍，我们认为短期可能存在获利了结情绪。我 们重申美光将受益于：1）GPU 和 ASIC 一并带动的 HBM 需求提升，美光 表示正在向四个客户（包括英伟达、AMD（新增）、以及两大 ASIC 设计公 司，我们预测为博通和 Marvell）大批量供应 HBM；2）HBM 规格提升，将 逐步换代到 HBM4；3）英伟达游戏显卡需求拉动将 GDDR6X 和 GDDR7 等高端 DRAM 产品。重申"买入"。 美光 FY25Q3 营收盈利及下季度指引均超预期，利润率均环比上升 FY25Q3 营收 93.0 亿美元，同比+37%，环比+15%，超彭博一致预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In recent years, as the TGA/reserves ratio increases, the influence of the TGA account on US dollar liquidity has gradually grown. The TGA account, used by the US Treasury to manage government revenues and expenditures, is an important part of the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Its balance passively reflects the Treasury's revenue and expenditure behavior. The impact of TGA balance changes on US dollar liquidity should be understood within the framework of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, often causing short - term marginal disturbances, while overnight reverse repurchases act as a buffer. Historically, the debt ceiling is the core factor determining its balance changes, with the account balance typically decreasing first and then increasing after hitting the ceiling. It is expected that the current TGA balance will be depleted by the end of August. After the X - date, the Treasury's issuance of short - term bonds to replenish funds may deplete the ON RRP balance and affect the reserve scale, potentially putting pressure on US dollar liquidity [7]. Summary by Directory TGA Account Overview - The TGA account is a deposit account opened by the US Treasury at the Federal Reserve for managing government daily revenues and expenditures. It is an important part of the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, with its share significantly increasing after 2020. Its balance is passively generated, reflecting the Treasury's revenue and expenditure behavior. The establishment of the TGA account has multiple purposes such as revenue and debt management and policy coordination, but it also has some drawbacks, including mismatched cost - benefit of funds, complex management of funds from different sources, and policy signals interfering with the market. The selection of the TGA account balance requires a trade - off between safety and cost. Fiscal cycles, tax rhythms, government expenditure patterns, and monetary coordination all affect the TGA account balance [3]. - The TGA account balance is affected by the Treasury's "revenue and expenditure behavior" in the market. Revenue inflows mainly include taxes, treasury bond issuance, government fees, and emergency funds, while outflows mainly include debt repayment and fiscal expenditures. Economic conditions, tax seasonality, fiscal policies, debt ceilings, bond issuance management, and fiscal expenditure resilience all influence TGA account changes [12]. - The Treasury's transactions with different market participants can cause TGA account changes. When the Treasury issues treasury bonds, the subscription by the Fed, commercial banks, and money market funds will affect the TGA account balance, and the corresponding changes will be reflected in reserves, currency in circulation, and reverse repurchases. When the Treasury conducts fiscal revenue or expenditure, the change in the TGA account balance will correspond to changes in reserves and cash [18][19]. TGA Account's Impact on Liquidity Levels of US Dollar Liquidity - At the macro - aggregate level, liquidity is reflected in the supply scale of the monetary base, which the Federal Reserve can regulate through policy interest rates, balance - sheet expansion and contraction. Currently, the US dollar liquidity is generally abundant, but the policy interest rate remains high, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity. The current US liquidity management framework is based on abundant liquidity, with the Federal Reserve setting a price range for the policy interest rate and absorbing excess liquidity through commercial bank reserves and overnight reverse repurchases [31]. - At the micro - market level, liquidity can be divided into four levels: the commercial banking system, the repo market, the real - sector financing market, and the offshore US dollar market. Each market has corresponding quantitative and price indicators to measure liquidity [35]. Relationship between TGA Account and Liquidity - The impact of the TGA account on US dollar liquidity should be understood within the framework of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's policy determines the direction of liquidity, while TGA balance changes are more of a short - term marginal disturbance. During the Fed's balance - sheet expansion, a rising TGA balance's pressure on liquidity can be absorbed, but a rapid decline in the TGA balance may lead to short - term liquidity abundance. During the Fed's balance - sheet contraction, a falling TGA balance can partially relieve the pressure on liquidity, but a rapid rise in the TGA balance may cause short - term shocks to liquidity [68][69]. - There is an inverse relationship between the overnight reverse repurchase balance and the TGA account balance, which can smooth the impact of TGA account changes on market liquidity. When the TGA balance decreases, excess liquidity is absorbed by overnight reverse repurchases; when the TGA balance increases, the reverse repurchase market provides liquidity [70]. - TGA balance changes usually have a small impact on the reserve scale, and reserves will only decline significantly in a liquidity - depleted situation. The change in the TGA account balance involves issues such as the sustainability of US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt repayment, and bond issuance, which may affect liquidity through indirect channels such as debt risk, sector leverage willingness, and bond - market structure [4][71]. Analysis of TGA Account Fluctuations and Trends Fluctuations and Causes of the Current TGA Balance - Since the beginning of 2025, the TGA account balance has changed significantly, first decreasing and then increasing. As of June 18, 2025, the balance was $3836 billion. The changes are mainly related to the debt ceiling and taxes. At the beginning of 2025, the government debt ceiling expired, and government spending accelerated, causing the TGA account balance to shrink. Then, it was replenished during the tax season and due to increased tariffs, but later entered a phase of accelerated balance depletion [84]. Analysis of TGA Balance Trends - Historically, the debt ceiling is the core factor determining the TGA balance. After hitting the ceiling, the account balance usually decreases first and then increases. Before the X - date, the balance is depleted to meet fiscal expenditures, and after the X - date, it is replenished through bond issuance. - Regarding when the TGA balance will be depleted, it depends on fiscal revenue, expenditure rhythms, and the TGA scale. Revenue - side factors include tax - policy changes and economic trends. Expenditure - side factors involve rigid expenditures such as interest costs and mandatory spending. The TGA balance can be used to estimate the X - date. It is expected that the TGA balance will be depleted by the end of August [85][89]. - Regarding the impact of TGA balance changes on liquidity, before the X - date, the government uses fiscal deposits to pay for government operations and interest, creating market liquidity. After the X - date, the Treasury needs to replenish the TGA account by issuing bonds, which may deplete the ON RRP balance and affect the reserve scale, potentially causing significant pressure on US dollar liquidity [95]. Conclusions and Insights - The TGA account balance is expected to first decrease and then increase. The X - date may occur before August, and at that time, the TGA account balance will be difficult to support subsequent expenditures, increasing the probability of a bipartisan negotiation. - Before the X - date, liquidity will be relatively abundant, and after the X - date, it will tighten rapidly. The impact of TGA balance changes on different markets varies. For the bond market, the impact on yields depends on the Federal Reserve's policy direction. For the stock market, a decrease in the TGA balance benefits growth stocks, but the approaching X - date restricts risk appetite. For commodities, industrial commodities are more affected by fiscal policies, and gold is a good hedging asset [103][104][105].

Trade Trends - U.S. imports showed a low-to-high trend in June, with container arrivals indicating imports below last year's levels, particularly from China, while imports from Vietnam accelerated significantly[2] - Korean exports to the U.S. improved notably in June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in the first 20 days, compared to -2.3% in May, driven mainly by semiconductor exports[4] - China's exports to the U.S. have shown resilience, with container throughput at major ports gradually increasing, surpassing last year's levels[2] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Retail data indicates that inflation pressure from tariffs continues, with prices of imported goods rising approximately 1% and domestic goods by 0.3% since April[5] - U.S. consumer spending on goods and services has continued to slow, with the Redbook weekly retail index showing a downward trend in June[4] Business Confidence and Employment - Business investment expectations have been slow to recover, with a marginal decline in capital expenditure willingness reported in June surveys[5] - The labor market has shown signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising since late May, indicating a slight increase in layoffs[5] Financial Conditions - U.S. financial conditions have continued to ease, as indicated by Bloomberg's financial conditions index and narrowing corporate bond spreads[5] - Market inflation expectations remain stable, with 5-year inflation expectations slightly rising to 2.5% and 10-year expectations stable around 2.3%[5] Risks - Potential risks include the possibility of renewed fluctuations in tariff policies and unexpected price pressures from tariffs exceeding forecasts[6]

Trade Trends - In June, U.S. imports showed a low-to-high trend, with container arrivals indicating imports below the same period last year[3] - Imports from China have seen a mild recovery but remain significantly lower than the 2023-24 period, while imports from Vietnam and other countries have accelerated[3] - The forecast for container arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles indicates a significant rebound in the last two weeks of June, likely due to preemptive imports before the tariff suspension ends on July 9[3] Consumer Behavior - U.S. consumer spending on goods and services has continued to slow, with hotel occupancy rates significantly below seasonal averages since mid-June[4] - Retail sales have been affected by a slowdown in discretionary spending, with the Redbook weekly retail index showing a decline in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates[4] Corporate Investment - Corporate capital expenditure intentions have weakened, with some regional Federal Reserve surveys indicating a decline in investment sentiment[4] - Manufacturing output has shown marginal recovery, but overall inventory levels are declining, with soft data indicating a downward trend[4] Labor Market - The labor market has cooled, with a slight increase in layoffs and a rise in initial and continuing unemployment claims since late May[4] - Job openings have continued to decline, indicating a slowdown in hiring intentions among companies[4] Inflation and Financial Conditions - Market inflation expectations remain stable, with 5-year and 10-year inflation expectations at approximately 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively[5] - Supermarket prices have continued to rise, reflecting ongoing tariff impacts, with imported goods prices increasing by about 1% and domestic goods by 0.3% since April[5] - Financial conditions have loosened further, as indicated by Bloomberg's financial conditions index and corporate bond spreads[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [6] Core Views - The coal market is expected to see a rebound in prices driven by seasonal demand, with recent positive changes in port coal prices and structural shortages supporting this trend [2] - The report highlights the potential for increased coal demand due to rising temperatures and declining hydropower output, which may lead to higher thermal power consumption [3] - A reduction in coal imports is contributing to a marginal contraction in supply, further supporting the coal market [4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 25, the prices for CCI5500/5000/4500 thermal coal have increased by 2/10/9 RMB per ton, reaching 617/546/481 RMB per ton respectively [2] - The average daily consumption of thermal coal in 25 provinces has risen by 2.1% and 5.2% year-on-year and month-on-month respectively [3] Demand Drivers - The report notes a 14.3% year-on-year decline in hydropower generation in May, while thermal power generation has turned positive with a growth rate of 1.2% [3] - The average temperature in major cities has increased by 15.7% from May to June, leading to a rise in electricity demand [3] Supply Dynamics - Coal imports for the first five months of 2024 reached 190 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% year-on-year, with Indonesian coal imports dropping significantly [4] - The report indicates that domestic coal production has contracted due to increased safety and environmental inspections, as well as maintenance shutdowns at some mines [2] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends investing in leading coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy, which are expected to benefit from the seasonal rebound in thermal coal prices [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the biopharmaceutical industry [6] Core Insights - The participation of domestic innovative drugs in the ASCO conference has increased, with approximately 67 domestic innovative drug studies included in oral presentations, a 35% increase from 2024, accounting for about 20% of all clinical results [1] - Several domestic new drugs, such as IBI363, MRG003, and others, have shown promising data that could revolutionize existing treatment protocols or fill therapeutic gaps [1] - The report recommends companies including Shiyao Group, Kelun-Botai, and Hutchison China MediTech, with industry-related companies including 3SBio [1] Summary by Sections IO Resistance - IBI363 shows excellent survival data in treating IO-resistant NSCLC, with a 12-month OS rate exceeding 70.9% and 71.6% for different cancer types, significantly outperforming chemotherapy and other innovative drug competitors [2][10] - MRG003 demonstrates significant PFS and OS improvements in PD-1 and platinum-based chemotherapy-resistant NPC patients, with HR values of 0.63 and 0.73, respectively [2][21] Lung Cancer - Phase III clinical trials for domestic new drugs show potential for therapeutic innovation, with results from studies on Beimuosubai monoclonal antibody combined with Anlotinib indicating PFS of 11.0 months and 13.3 months in different patient groups, outperforming competitors [3][24] - The SACHI study shows that the combination of Saiwo and Osimertinib in 2L EGFRm Met-amplified NSCLC achieves a PFS of 6.9 months, significantly better than chemotherapy [3][32] Gastrointestinal Tumors - Domestic innovative drugs have made breakthroughs in gastric cancer and CRC, with the Vidiqi monoclonal antibody showing an ORR of 82.4% in HER2 high-expressing patients, significantly outperforming existing treatment options [4][35] - JMT101 combined with Irinotecan shows a PFS of 7.4 months in 3L+ CRC, outperforming current SoC treatments [4][43]

Macro Overview - The report highlights the upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions, which may disrupt global trade, particularly as U.S. imports have shown a low-to-high trend since June, while South Korea's export growth has improved significantly [2] - U.S. consumer and employment markets are cooling, with weakened corporate confidence and persistent inflationary pressures, indicating potential trade volume disturbances as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches [2] Fixed Income Insights - Global liquidity has shifted, with funds flowing out of U.S. dollar assets back to local markets, leading to non-U.S. markets outperforming U.S. assets [3] - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions have eased, allowing funds to temporarily return to risk assets, while the basic economic outlook remains supportive of U.S. stock performance [3] Banking and Securities - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to support consumption, proposing 19 specific measures to boost the consumption sector [3] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in quality regional banks and leading brokerage firms, emphasizing the positive policy outlook and expected economic recovery [3] Transportation Sector - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for the second half of 2025: high-volatility airline stocks, core assets benefiting from foreign capital inflow, and shipping opportunities amid tariff and geopolitical disturbances [5] - Specific stock recommendations include major airlines and logistics companies with strong competitive advantages and stable profitability [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - The 2025 ASCO conference showcased a significant increase in the participation of domestic innovative drugs, with approximately 67 studies presented, marking a 35% increase from 2024 [7] - Notable drugs such as IBI363 and MRG003 have shown promising data, indicating potential breakthroughs in treatment options [7] Mechanical Equipment - The report notes a transition in the domestic manufacturing cycle towards passive destocking, influenced by strategic emerging industries [5] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on technological innovation and industry upgrades, particularly in AI, engineering machinery globalization, and new energy technologies [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This year, global funds have generally flowed out of US dollar assets and returned to their home markets. The spill - over of US dollar liquidity has led non - US markets to generally outperform US assets. However, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and the resurgence of the "US Exceptionalism," there are new changes in global capital flows. After the cooling of the Middle East situation, funds temporarily flow back to risk assets. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may continue to support the performance of the US stock market. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, the cooling of geopolitical conflicts and the dovish stance of the Fed have led to the repair of global risk appetite and the rise of easing expectations. Equity assets may be favorable in the short term, while crude oil and gold may face some correction pressure [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Capital Flow and Asset Performance - Global funds have flowed out of US dollar assets this year. According to TIC data, in April, overseas investors reduced their holdings of medium - and long - term securities by $88.9 billion, including $59.2 billion in US stocks and $46 billion in US Treasury bonds. Canada and the Chinese mainland had relatively large reduction scales [8]. - European stocks are the most benefited assets under the weak US dollar due to friendly policies, low - level fundamental repair, and frequent capital rotation between the US and Europe. European investors have continuously reduced their holdings of US stocks and returned to their home markets this year. The recent 3 - month rolling net capital inflow into European stocks has reached a high since 2010 [12]. - Multiple funds support the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market, including foreign capital inflows, southbound funds, and the liquidity injection by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The recent rise of the Hong Kong stock market is more of a valuation repair due to abundant liquidity. However, if the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market, but the long - term impact is limited [14][29]. - A - share market has abundant off - market liquidity and low opportunity cost, with active on - market funds. Since April, the trading sentiment has weakened, and the market is mainly in a state of stock game. Recently, large - finance (high - dividend), small - cap stocks have led the rise, and themes are active [21][31]. Short - term Changes in Global Liquidity - The cooling of the Middle East situation has improved market risk appetite, and funds have temporarily flowed back to risk assets. Risk - aversion assets are under pressure, and the focus will shift to fundamental data and the Fed's monetary policy stance [23]. - The "US Exceptionalism" has recovered. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may support the US stock market. "De - dollarization" may be postponed. In the short term, the net inflow of funds into US stocks has stabilized and rebounded, and the inflow of funds into US Treasury bonds is generally stable [23]. - The Hong Kong dollar has touched the weak - side guarantee. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. The subsequent depreciation pressure of the Hong Kong dollar may come from the appreciation of the US dollar and capital outflows from the Hong Kong stock market [29]. Market Condition Assessment - Domestic: Port throughput has slightly converged, the supply and demand in the construction industry are weak, and housing prices need to stabilize. Externally, the US consumption and real estate sectors face downward pressure, the impact of tariffs is gradually emerging, economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has raised its inflation forecast [38][39]. - Overseas: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month (previous value - 0.1%), industrial output decreased by 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%), and the housing start - up rate in May dropped to a five - year low, down 9.8%. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, and raised the core inflation forecast to 3.1% [39]. Configuration Suggestions - For large - category assets: In the short term, equity assets may be favorable, while crude oil and gold may face correction pressure [34]. - For the domestic bond market: The recent keyword is more upward direction, limited space, and emphasis on micro - operations. The yield of 10 - year Chinese bonds is approaching 1.6%, and small opportunities can be grasped from curve convex points and "micro - operations" [34]. - For the domestic stock market: Policy strength and performance drivers need to be realized. Continue to trade along industrial hotspots, policy expectations, and "high - to - low" rotations [35]. - For US Treasury bonds: The cooling of the US economy may bring short - term opportunities for US Treasury bonds. It is recommended to lay out 10 - year US Treasury bonds when the yield is above 4.5%, and the 2 - year variety is relatively more stable [35]. - For US stocks: Although the short - term sentiment is strong, the valuation has been repaired to a historical high, and there is still downward pressure on earnings. Pay attention to the return of the AI narrative and avoid tariff - affected sectors [36]. - For commodities: After the supply concerns are alleviated, commodities are generally under pressure and will gradually return to fundamental pricing. It is recommended to buy gold on dips, and crude oil is expected to be weak in the short term. It is judged that copper is better than oil [36]. Follow - up Concerns - Domestic: June official manufacturing PMI, June Caixin manufacturing PMI, and the Summer Davos Forum [52]. - Overseas: A series of US economic data including May new home sales, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, etc., as well as economic data from the eurozone, the UK, and Japan [54].

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and supply risks, with WTI and Brent crude prices rising by 12.7% and 11.9% respectively since the end of May, reaching $68.51 and $71.48 per barrel [3] - The Chinese government has introduced 19 measures to boost consumption, focusing on financial support for key sectors, which is expected to enhance economic recovery and stimulate credit demand [2][6] - The transportation sector is projected to benefit from high volatility, with recommendations for airlines and core assets that demonstrate strong competitive advantages and stable profitability [6] - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to see a value reassessment, driven by a shift towards domestic consumption and supportive government policies, with a U-shaped recovery in consumer confidence [7] - The agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, is expected to experience a rebound in prices due to easing supply pressures and seasonal demand, with recommendations for leading companies in the industry [9] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market has seen a reduction in trading volume and a slight outflow of financing funds after two weeks of inflows, indicating a cooling of market enthusiasm [1] - The report notes an increase in refinancing and share reduction activities, suggesting potential supply-side disturbances in the market [1] Fixed Income and Consumption - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to support consumption, which may lead to increased financial services in the consumer sector [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality enterprises in the consumption chain and encourages the issuance of consumer ETFs to attract new capital [2] Oil and Gas Sector - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical events on oil supply and prices, with OPEC+ production adjustments and sanctions on Iran contributing to market volatility [3] - Long-term prospects for oil prices are supported by the ability of leading energy companies to increase production and reduce costs [3] Transportation Sector - The transportation sector is advised to focus on high-volatility opportunities, particularly in airlines, which are expected to benefit from various favorable factors [6] - Recommendations include major airlines and logistics companies that possess strong market positions and resilience [6] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry is positioned for growth as domestic consumption becomes a key driver, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating the economy [7] - The report highlights the potential for leading companies in this sector to achieve significant revenue and profit growth through innovation and efficiency improvements [7] Agriculture Sector - The agricultural sector, particularly pig farming, is expected to see price rebounds and improved profitability for leading companies due to favorable market conditions [9] - The report also notes the growth potential in the pet industry and the consolidation of the snack food market, with recommendations for key players [9]

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Growth - The stablecoin market has expanded from $5 billion in 2020 to over $250 billion by mid-2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 100%[2] - By 2024, the trading volume of stablecoins is expected to approach $37 trillion, significantly surpassing Bitcoin's trading volume of $19 trillion[24] - Over 95% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with USDT and USDC accounting for approximately 90% of the market share[24] Group 2: Future Projections - Conservative estimates suggest that the stablecoin market could reach $4 trillion in size within the next 10 years, implying a CAGR of over 30%[2] - The US Treasury Secretary has projected that by the end of 2029, the market value of stablecoins could reach between $3.5 trillion and $4 trillion, indicating a CAGR of over 80%[2] Group 3: Factors Driving Adoption - The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) has significantly contributed to the rapid growth of stablecoins, providing a stable medium for transactions in the crypto space[3] - Stablecoins offer high payment efficiency, especially in cross-border transactions, and can bypass traditional banking systems, making them attractive in regions with underdeveloped banking infrastructure[3] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape - Recent legislative efforts in the US (GENIUS Act) and Hong Kong (Stablecoin Ordinance) aim to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is expected to enhance their development and safety[4] - The clarity in regulatory frameworks is anticipated to balance efficiency and security in the stablecoin market, addressing risks related to compliance and redemption[4] Group 5: Potential Risks - The issuance of stablecoins could lead to an expansion of overall liquidity if monetary authorities do not adjust their statistical measures and design appropriate countermeasures[5] - Risks include compliance issues in cross-border transactions and potential redemption risks, which could impact the stability of the financial system[4]