证券研究报告 5 月宏观数据回顾：1）5 月社零同比较 4 月的 5.1%回升至 6.4%，而工业 增加值/固定资产投资同比回落至 5.8%/2.9%；2）5 月出口同比增速从 4 月 的 8.1%回落至 4.8%，对美出口进一步回落，对东盟、欧盟出口维持高增； 进口同比从 4 月的-0.3%回落至-3.4%；3）5 月新增人民币贷款 6,200 亿， 同比少增 3300 亿元；新增社融 2.29 万亿元，低基数下同比多增 2,247 亿元； M1 同比增速从 4 月的 1.5%回升至 2.3%，M2 同比增速从 4 月的 8%小幅回 落至 7.9%。4）5 月 CPI 同比持平于 4 月的-0.1%；PPI 同比降幅走阔至 3.3%。 宏观 多重因素推动需求增长环比回落 2025 年 6 月 30 日│中国内地 图说中国月报 6 月宏观走势几何? 季调后财政支出力度在二季度以来环比回落，关税对企业利润率的影响逐步 凸显，同时 6 月高频指标显示地产销售走弱，消费或受购物节提前、补贴退 坡及违规吃喝监管等影响回落。但 6 月政府融资有所提速，有望对基建开工 形成支撑。整体而言，低基数下经济同比指标或维持韧性， ...

Group 1: Passenger Vehicles - The report anticipates a strong performance in Q3 2025, with a projected wholesale volume of 16.25 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% and a month-on-month increase of 21% [1] - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to reach 9.3 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 23% and a month-on-month growth of 42% [1] - The market share of domestic brands is projected to increase from 62% in 2024 to 69% in 2025, driven by strong performances from BYD, Geely, and Chery [20][24] Group 2: Motorcycles and Electric Two-Wheelers - The motorcycle industry is focusing on overseas expansion, particularly in Europe, where a high growth period is expected from January to October [2] - The electric two-wheeler market is anticipated to see strong sales growth in Q3, supported by policies and a demand upgrade, with a cumulative replacement volume of 6.5 million units by May 2025 [2][12] - The report highlights that the high-end electric two-wheeler market is becoming increasingly competitive, while the mid-to-low-end market is expected to consolidate, benefiting leading companies like Aima and Yadea [2] Group 3: Auto Parts - The report notes that tariffs are accelerating the globalization of domestic auto parts companies, with a focus on capacity relocation to regions like Mexico and Southeast Asia [3] - The optimization of supplier payment terms to within 60 days is expected to improve the health of the industry chain, particularly benefiting leading auto parts suppliers [3] Group 4: Intelligent Driving and Robotics - The Robo X initiative is gaining momentum, with significant advancements in logistics cost reduction and the commercialization of Robotaxi services [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological iterations in the intelligent driving sector, with a notable increase in the penetration rate of high-end driving assistance features in vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan [4][19] - In the robotics sector, the investment paradigm is shifting towards companies that can deliver real orders and have a strong technological and production capacity [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation and logistics industry [5]. Core Insights - The commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles is driven by industry demand, technological advancements, policy support, and new business models. The last mile delivery in the express delivery sector, which accounts for about 60% of total costs, presents significant cost reduction opportunities compared to other logistics segments [12][22]. - The current primary application scenarios for unmanned logistics vehicles include last-mile delivery from distribution points to collection stations, which corresponds to a market space of approximately 36.6 billion RMB. The report anticipates that by 2030, the incremental market value for various autonomous driving scenarios will reach 745.9 billion RMB [2][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Demand - The express delivery industry is experiencing a prolonged price war, with average prices dropping by 8.2% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, leading companies to seek cost reductions in last-mile delivery, which constitutes over 50% of total costs [23][26]. Policy and Technology - The report highlights that national strategies and local policies are increasingly supportive of unmanned logistics vehicles, with road rights being opened up for testing and application. This regulatory environment is crucial for the growth of unmanned logistics vehicles [39][41]. - Technological advancements in autonomous driving are making unmanned logistics vehicles more viable, with successful mass production by leading companies driving down costs [12][22]. Cost Reduction Potential - If 30% of delivery volume is handled by unmanned logistics vehicles, express delivery companies could see a cost reduction of approximately 4%. The cost of using unmanned vehicles for delivery is significantly lower than traditional methods, with a cost of 0.067 RMB per delivery compared to 1 RMB for manual delivery [13][34]. Market Size and Growth - The potential market size for unmanned logistics vehicles in the express delivery sector is estimated at around 36.6 billion RMB, representing only 4.9% of the total market. The report projects substantial growth in the overall market for autonomous driving applications, with various segments contributing to a total incremental value of 745.9 billion RMB by 2030 [12][13]. Competitive Landscape - The report suggests that the automation of last-mile delivery could lead to a redistribution of profits within the express delivery industry, favoring well-capitalized and well-managed leading companies. The competitive landscape is expected to shift as companies leverage unmanned logistics vehicles to enhance efficiency and service quality [4][14].

证券研究报告 东方电子 (000682 CH) 电力自动化先锋，虚拟电厂空间广阔 2025 年 6 月 30 日│中国内地 电气设备 首次覆盖东方电子并给予"买入"评级，目标价 12.6 元，对应 2025 年 20XPE。 公司为国内电力自动化先锋，持续内生外延，穿越行业周期，2008-2024 年 营收 CAGR 达 14.4%。基本盘业务（配用电、调度、输变电自动化）伴随 国内电网投资稳增长，同时出海带来更高增速，我们预计 2025-2027 年收 入增速在 12%~20%；此外，公司持续培育新增长极，虚拟电厂空间广阔， 新能源有望保持快增。 基本盘稳健向好，拓品类、扩市场带来更高增速 智能配用电、调度及云化、输变电自动化为公司的基本盘，合计营收占比在 8~9 成，伴随国内电网整体投资稳步增长，同时依靠产品品类拓展和加速开 拓海外业务带来更高增速，我们预计 2025-2027 年业务收入增速处在 12%~20%。公司在多个子板块位处领军地位，国内电表方面，行业正值替 换周期，新标准或带来量稳价升，公司市占率稳居前列，2024 年排名第四； 调度方面，公司承建南网总调云端系统建设，市场地位与技术壁垒较高； ...

证券研究报告 康缘药业 (600557 CH) 再看中新医药，重估创新价值 2025 年 6 月 30日│中国内地 中药 康缘药业作为中药创新药的龙头之一，2024 年全资收购中新医药，加码生 物创新药。随着季度基数回落、合规冲击解除，我们认为公司 2Q25 收入同 比环比均有望企稳恢复，2025~2026 年伴随中新医药在研项目数据读出， 生物创新药价值有望体现，带动公司价值重估，维持"买入"评级。 中新医药：海归科学家创立，聚焦代谢与神经，全资进入上市公司 中新医药成立于 2011 年，技术核心团队由海归与国内研发人才组成，创始 人张怡博士曾就职于施贵宝任首席科学家。收购前，中新医药 70%股权归 属康缘集团，30%股权归属南京康竹（中新医药核心团队持股平台）。11M24 公司以自有资金 2.7 亿元收购中新医药 100%股权。中新医药尚未盈利 （9M24 净资产-4.23 亿元），目前临床品种为 ZX2021（GGGF1 三靶长效 减重降糖融合蛋白）、ZX2010（GGF7 双靶长效降糖减重融合蛋白）、ZX1305 （rhNGF 注射液）、ZX1305E（rhNGF 滴眼液）。公司初步测算四条核心 管线 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 如何释放服务消费潜力 华泰研究 易峘 研究员 2025 年 6 月 30 日│中国内地 专题研究 如我们在《以旧换新的成效评估和后续展望》（2025/6/21）中分析，去年 9 月开始，"国补"相关消费品增速大幅回升，但对其他可选消费形成一定挤 压效应，鉴于 "国补"年化总额仅占可支配收入约 1.5%，而去年 4 季度以 来国补品类对零售增长的贡献高达 3 个百分点左右。下半年，随着补贴退潮， 此前被"挤出"的消费品类增长可能更快、尤其是服务消费。此时加大对高 频服务消费的支持力度可能事半功倍。本文从全球对比角度分析服务消费的 增长空间，并从短期及中长期探讨消费提升的政策选项。 1.中国 GDP 中总消费占比有所低估,但服务消费对比发达国家提升空 间较大 截至 2023 年，以支出法衡量的中国最终消费支出占名义 GDP 的比例约为 56.8%，低于日韩、欧美等发达经济体 65%-81%的水平。但可能由于统计 口径、估算方法等差异存在低估：1）住房消费采用成本法估算，较虚拟租 金的估算方法偏低；2）政府向居民提供的公共服务未计入家庭消费支出。 从消费结构看，中国服务消费占比偏弱。中国居民消费 ...

证券研究报告 关税影响显现，5 月工企利润同比转负 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 27 日│中国内地 动态点评 5 月工业企业利润数据点评 今年 5 月工业企业盈利同比增速较 4 月的 3%明显回落至-9.1%，出口相关 的中游制造业量价有所承压、或显示关税政策对企业利润率及订单的影响 显现，下游部分消费品行业或受促销影响、呈现"量增价跌"，亦对盈利形 成扰动。整体而言，工业企业收入同比增速从 4 月的 2.6%继续回落至 0.8%， 与 5 月出口增速放缓相印证，出口链相关行业盈利回升态势受阻，关税影响 或逐步凸显，电气机械、仪器仪表、专用设备、计算机通信等行业利润率及 收入增速均有回落；同时，油价及黑色系价格下跌对石化及煤炭开采等行业 利润率回升持续形成压制，对应中下游的石化加工相关行业盈利边际改善； 此外，汽车、服装、文教娱乐用品等行业营收增速回升，但盈利增速走弱， 或显示出购物节促销等因素对价格的拖累。 往前看，7 月 9 日"对等关税"豁免期后关税政策仍有较大扰动，外需不确 定性或对后续出口订单带来扰动，尤其是对企业利润率的影响或逐步显现。 内需层面，"以旧换新"政策补贴使用过半，虽然三四季度补贴 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 37.00 HKD [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's core competitive advantage lies in high-quality membership and comprehensive lifecycle management, with traditional beauty services as the foundation, complemented by medical beauty and sub-health services to extend customer lifecycles and enhance customer stickiness [1]. - The company is actively increasing its dividend payout ratio, optimizing its shareholder structure, and implementing long-term incentive mechanisms, which may improve liquidity and indicate potential for PE valuation recovery [1]. - The company is expected to continue industry consolidation and business acquisitions to enhance market share and strengthen economies of scale [2]. Financial Performance - The beauty and health services revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 1.443 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20.9%, and the company plans to increase the number of direct and franchise stores [2]. - Medical beauty and sub-health services revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 928 million RMB and 201 million RMB, respectively, with significant growth rates of 9.1% and 98.9% year-on-year [3]. - The company anticipates net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 315.33 million RMB, 367.89 million RMB, and 418.15 million RMB, respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5][20]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has outlined three strategic initiatives aimed at maximizing shareholder value: establishing a long-term shareholder return mechanism, attracting quality long-term institutional investors, and implementing a core management equity incentive plan [4]. - The company aims to allocate no less than 50% of annual net profit attributable to shareholders for dividends from 2025 to 2027, barring special circumstances [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a PE ratio of 25x for 2025, reflecting the company's position as a leading brand in beauty and health, with a target price of 37.00 HKD based on this valuation [5]. - The company’s cash position is strong, with nearly 1.4 billion RMB at the end of 2024, supporting its stable business development and ongoing market share enhancement [5].

2025 年北约峰会通过新国防支出目标，要求 2035 年国防与安全支出提高至 GDP 的 5%。因地缘安全环境和财政能力差异，各国实现路径存在差异：德 国、法国等国有望提前达标，而西班牙等国则面临较大挑战。整体而言，欧 盟的北约成员国防开支增加或将温和提振欧盟经济增速，但也可能导致财政 赤字上升、顺差收窄、国债收益率和欧元中枢上升。 风险提示：北约扩大军费开支计划实施进度不及预期；俄乌冲突加剧的风 险。 今日早参 2025 年 6 月 27 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：如何看待北约大幅提高国防支出的承诺? 研报发布日期：2025-06-26 研究员 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH374 宏观：关税豁免临近到期扰动全球贸易｜关税影响高频跟踪（6 月 25 日） 概览：贸易量上，6 月以来美国进口呈现前低后高走势，而韩国出口增速明 显改善，或由于 7 月 9 日对等关税豁免到期前美国抢进口、非美抢出口 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 71.20 [7][30]. Core Views - The launch of the YU7 SUV has exceeded market expectations with 289,000 units pre-ordered within the first hour, representing 82.5% of the company's previously announced annual shipment target for 2025 [2][4]. - The pricing of the YU7 is in line with market expectations, while its hardware specifications, including a 700 TOPS NVIDIA THOR chip and advanced driver assistance features, are above expectations [2][4]. - The AI glasses launched by the company are lightweight at 40g and feature color-changing technology, which has garnered positive market reception [3][4]. Summary by Sections Product Launch and Market Response - The YU7 SUV was launched with a pre-order of 200,000 units in three minutes and 289,000 units in one hour, significantly surpassing market expectations [2]. - The YU7 is available in nine colors, with a standard version offering a range of 835 km and equipped with advanced technology such as laser radar and a panoramic display [2]. AI Glasses - The AI glasses are priced at RMB 1,999 and weigh only 40g, featuring a Qualcomm AR1 chip and various functionalities including video calls and smart home control [3]. - The glasses have sold out on their launch night, indicating strong consumer interest [3]. Financial Projections - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at RMB 41 billion, RMB 51.3 billion, and RMB 63.2 billion respectively, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4][6]. - The target price of HKD 71.20 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, which includes a valuation of HKD 26.3 per share for the automotive business [4][30]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a revenue increase from RMB 270.97 billion in 2023 to RMB 727.78 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.13% [6][38]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from RMB 0.76 in 2023 to RMB 2.52 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [6][38].