Group 1 - The report indicates that the return on equity (ROE) for A-shares is expected to stabilize and gradually recover, driven by improvements in net profit margins, asset turnover, and an increase in equity multiplier [2][3][15] - The broad-based valuation recovery of Chinese assets is ongoing, with the CSI 800 forward P/E stabilizing around 19x, reflecting a premium of approximately 5% over MSCI Emerging Markets excluding China [4][39] - Key assets such as A50, consumer sectors, and financials are expected to lead the recovery, demonstrating strong fundamental resilience during the past three years [2][5] Group 2 - The report highlights that the profit cycle is gradually re-emerging, with A-share profit growth expected to recover, alleviating previous concerns about a long-term decline [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of five investment themes: RMB appreciation, technology cycles, inventory cycles, capacity cycles, and capital market reforms [6][39] - The report predicts that the non-financial A-share net profit growth rate for 2025 will be approximately 8.3%, with a reasonable valuation for the Shanghai Composite Index estimated at around 13.1x [9][45]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [7] Core Viewpoints - The Dragon Boat Festival holiday travel was relatively subdued, with a total of 657 million people traveling, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, which is lower than the initial forecast of 7.7% by the Ministry of Transport [2] - Short-distance travel demand showed slightly better performance compared to medium and long-distance travel, primarily due to frequent rainfall in southern regions and the proximity of the holiday to the college entrance examination [2] - The report recommends the aviation sector, particularly China National Aviation (A/H), as well as highway companies such as Anhui Wanshan Expressway (A/H), Zhejiang Huhang Expressway, and Guangdong Expressway A [2] Summary by Sections Aviation - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation was 1.867 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.22%, which is lower than the growth rates of rail and road transport [3] - The three-day holiday saw stable growth rates of 0%, 1.3%, and 2.4% respectively, with international routes showing a significant increase of 17.6% in flight volume [3] Road Transport - The total road passenger flow during the holiday was estimated at 600 million, with a daily average of 200 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.14% [4] - The growth rate of road passenger flow was slightly lower than the growth rate of vehicle ownership, which increased by 5.1% year-on-year by the end of 2024 [4] Rail Transport - The total railway passenger volume during the holiday was 47.108 million, with a daily average of 15.7027 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [5] - The railway passenger volume experienced a good start on the first day with a 5.0% year-on-year increase, but saw a decline of 11.2% on the second day due to weather impacts [5] Recommended Stocks - China National Aviation (601111 CH) with a target price of 10.20 and a "Buy" rating [10] - Anhui Wanshan Expressway (600012 CH) with a target price of 18.60 and a "Buy" rating [10] - Zhejiang Huhang Expressway (576 HK) with a target price of 7.82 and a "Buy" rating [10] - Guangdong Expressway A (000429 CH) with a target price of 15.59 and a "Buy" rating [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the real estate market in China is stabilizing and undergoing transformation, with policies implemented since September 2024 showing positive effects on market recovery [1][2][3] - The report highlights that the adjustment period for housing prices has been significant, with new and second-hand housing prices decreasing by 10.1% and 17.4% respectively as of April 2025, marking a nearly four-year adjustment cycle [2][15] - The report emphasizes that the burden of home purchasing for residents is at a 20-year low, which is a positive factor for market stabilization [2][28] Group 2 - The policy environment is entering a phase of effect verification, with a series of measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including urban village renovations and financial support [3][39] - The market is experiencing a recovery process characterized by differentiation, with new home sales showing a weak recovery trend and second-hand home transactions performing better due to price adjustments [4][40] - The report suggests that investment opportunities lie in the commercial real estate and property management sectors, recommending "three good" real estate stocks and companies with stable performance [5][10] Group 3 - The report identifies that the land market is seeing a moderate recovery in transaction volumes, with a 28% year-on-year increase in transaction value for residential land in the first four months of 2025 [4][43] - It notes that the concentration of land acquisition among leading real estate companies has reached a high level, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][39] - The report forecasts a decline in new construction area, completion area, and real estate investment by 20%, 18%, and 8% respectively for the year 2025 [4][5]

证券研究报告 银行 把握资金脉络，掘金优质区域 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 03 日│中国内地 中期策略 把握资金脉络，掘金优质区域 年初以来中信银行指数取得 9.2%绝对收益+11.6%相对收益（截止 5/30）， 排名市场第二，银行板块凭借红利底色与避险属性，投资价值仍持续凸显， 公募基金改革落地、中国资产重估有望进一步推升板块配置热情。银行基本 面逐步筑底回稳，板块内部分化或持续，经济新旧动能转型过程中，预计优 质区域基建、新兴产业有望成为稳信贷重要抓手，当地区域行有望充分受益。 个股推荐：1）经济大省挑大梁政策导向下，发达区域优质银行业绩韧性较 强，如南京、杭州、成都、重庆 AH、渝农 AH 等；2）资金低配、经营稳健 的银行，如兴业、招行等。3）港股大行股息优势突出，如农行 H、工行 H。 资金观察：红利为底，权重为势 多维资金助推板块行情，近一年险资、ETF 持续买入，公募、外资为新增量。 一方面，险资普遍加大红利股配置力度，银行股盈利稳健、股息回报较高， 为增持优选。除享受红利收益、资本利得之外，长股投方式可享受并表收益 与银保合作生态附加值，配置吸引力较强；中央汇金等资金增持以沪深 300 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the scheduled interest rate cut is expected to improve the cost structure of life insurance products, potentially enhancing sales momentum in the second half of the year [1][3][46] - The current valuation of insurance stocks is at historical lows, with A-share PEV ranging from 0.51x to 1.03x and H-share PEV from 0.22x to 1.15x, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [4][36] - The liquidity in the market is improving, driven by the expectation of RMB appreciation and public fund reforms, which is beneficial for insurance stock valuations [2][15][26] Group 2 - The scheduled interest rate cut is anticipated to lower the predetermined interest rate for traditional insurance from 2.5% to 2.0%, which will help alleviate the cost-revenue mismatch faced by life insurance products [3][48][56] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism for predetermined interest rates will allow for quarterly updates based on market interest rates, which is expected to enhance the overall performance of the life insurance sector [62][63] - The report emphasizes the importance of asset-liability matching to mitigate interest rate risk, with companies like China Pacific Insurance and Ping An having relatively better matching levels [5][60] Group 3 - The report notes that the sales performance of the agent channel has been under pressure due to the cost-revenue mismatch, but the expected interest rate cut may improve sales dynamics [58][60][61] - The insurance sector has seen a year-to-date increase in new premium income, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel, indicating a potential recovery in sales [58][61] - The report suggests that the public fund reforms may lead to increased liquidity in the A-share market, which could further support insurance stock valuations [43][44] Group 4 - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Pacific Insurance, Ping An, AIA Group, and China Life, all of which are expected to benefit from the anticipated changes in the market [10][37][38] - The overall market sentiment has improved following the easing of tariff tensions, which has positively impacted the performance of insurance stocks in both A and H-share markets [22][35][36] - The report indicates that the insurance sector's performance is closely tied to macroeconomic factors, including interest rates and currency fluctuations, which will continue to influence valuations [36][29][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for non-ferrous metals is "Overweight" (maintained) [5] - The investment rating for basic metals and processing is also "Overweight" (maintained) [5] - The specific recommendation for the company "Shan Jin International" is "Buy" with a target price of 25.53 [6][54] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to show strong fluctuations due to tariff policies and inflation expectations [1][15] - Basic metals are experiencing strong near-term demand, with a focus on inventory turning points [3][13] - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies on both gold and basic metals, suggesting potential upward pressure on gold prices [2][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates that gold prices may experience strong fluctuations in the short term due to ongoing tariff policies and inflation data [1][15] - Basic metals are currently facing strong demand, with a particular emphasis on monitoring inventory levels as a potential turning point [3][13] Key Companies and Dynamics - The report suggests that the ongoing tariff disputes and U.S. fiscal expansion may provide upward momentum for gold prices, recommending investment in industry leaders like Shan Jin International [2] - Shan Jin International reported a revenue of 4.321 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55.84%, and a net profit of 694 million yuan, up 37.91% year-on-year [55] Sub-industry Insights - Basic metals are seeing robust near-term demand, with a focus on inventory turning points [3][13] - The report notes that the aluminum market is experiencing a decline in inventory, which may support prices in the near term [14] - The gold market is influenced by U.S. tariff policies, which may lead to strong fluctuations in prices [15]

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing deepening of capital market reforms in China, with the introduction of the new "National Nine Articles" aimed at investor protection and enhancing the investment financing functions, fostering a market ecosystem conducive to long-term investment [1][15][16] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, indicating a significant expansion of the capital market, which is expected to provide broader opportunities for the securities industry [1][22][24] - The report emphasizes the increasing concentration of the securities industry, with the top 10 firms accounting for 74% of industry revenue and 63% of net profit in 2024, reflecting a notable rise in industry concentration since 2010 [2][28][29] Group 2 - The report identifies a structural differentiation in the performance of capital-heavy and light-capital businesses within the securities industry, with capital-heavy businesses driving growth while light-capital businesses are showing signs of recovery [3][45][46] - The international business of major securities firms is entering a growth phase, with significant profit contributions from international subsidiaries, particularly from firms like CICC and Huatai [4][35] - The report forecasts a stable performance for the industry in 2025, with projected ROE under different scenarios ranging from 5.2% to 6.8%, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook [5][49] Group 3 - The report notes that the securities industry is benefiting from a robust capital market, with various business segments such as brokerage, margin financing, and stock pledges closely aligned with market conditions [24][28] - The report highlights the importance of comprehensive service capabilities among leading securities firms, as competition shifts from single business lines to full-service offerings [28][37] - The report suggests that the ongoing reforms in public funds and the introduction of floating fee structures are expected to enhance the quality of investment products and improve the long-term investment ecosystem in the A-share market [19][21][22]

证券研究报告 宏观 2026 年美国财政赤字和美债供需压 力或进一步上升 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 02 日│中国内地 专题研究 2025 财年以来，美国财政赤字规模整体超预期，而关税以及美丽大法案也 会对未来的赤字路径产生影响。我们认为，考虑关税收入和美丽大法案对财 政收支影响，预计 2026 财年美国财政赤字规模可能达到 2.2 万亿美元，赤 字率上升至 7%，超过市场预期。这一预测对美国宏观走势和资产价格变化 均有重大意义。赤字规模上升加大美债供给压力，短期内财政部仍有腾挪空 间，避免付息国债供给明显增加。但中长期看，美债财政可持续担忧推高美 债利率、并进一步加剧财政负担的"负循环"或成为美元资产持续的波动源。 1.预计 2026 财年美国财政赤字规模可能超预期 2025 财年以来（2024 年 10 月到 2025 年 4 月），美国累计赤字规模为 1.05 万亿美元，同比增速达到 13%，超过此前 CBO 预测。背后主要原因是强制 性支出以及利息支出的高增长。美国未来财政赤字规模主要受到关税以及美 丽大法案影响。一方面，特朗普加征的关税有助于增加财政收入降低赤字， 关税收入每年可能增加 210 ...

证券研究报告 金工 6 月指数定期调样的影响估算 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 02 日│中国内地 专题研究 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% ≤-3 (-3, -2] (-2, -1] (-1, -0.5] (-0.5, 0] (0, 0.5] (0.5, 1] (1, 2] (2, 3] >3 个股冲击系数分布 资料来源：Wind，中证指数有限公司，深圳证券信息有 限公司，华泰研究 被动市场大幅扩容，指数定期调整或带来短期影响 A 股被动市场持续扩容，近年来增长尤为迅速，截至 2025 年 Q1 已经达到 约 3.26 万亿元。对于部分跟踪产品规模较大的指数而言，产品调整会对被 调动成分带来一定的短期影响；而随着被动市场的扩容，该影响可能变得愈 发明显。从测算结果来看，资金净流入的高冲击系数股票中，有 10 只股票 冲击系数超过 2 倍，或在短期内对价格提供支撑；而呈现净流出的股票中， 有 26 只股票系数绝对值在 2 倍以上，可能面临一定的潜在压力。 近年来被动市场呈现高速扩张趋势，总规模突破 3 万亿元 作为资本市场的核心投资渠道之一，被动基金近年来在国内呈现较为强劲的 发展趋势。一方面，被动产 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This is a long-short strategy that dynamically holds long positions in commodities with high roll yields and short positions in commodities with low roll yields. The strategy aims to capture the term structure premium in commodity markets while reducing dependency on single market trends[33][35][34]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Roll Yield Factor**: The roll yield is calculated to measure the contango or backwardation state of a commodity. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with high roll yields are dynamically allocated long positions, while those with low roll yields are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Balancing**: The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to maintain the desired exposure to the roll yield factor[35][38]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates flexibility in adapting to market risks and provides stable returns even in weak market trends[34]. 2. Model Name: Commodity Time-Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy captures medium- to long-term trends in commodity prices using multiple technical indicators. It dynamically allocates long positions to upward-trending assets and short positions to downward-trending assets[33][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Trend Indicators**: Technical indicators such as moving averages and momentum are used to identify price trends. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with upward trends are allocated long positions, while those with downward trends are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Rebalancing**: Positions are adjusted periodically based on updated trend signals[35][45]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively tracks price trends but may underperform in volatile or trendless markets[45]. 3. Model Name: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy uses inventory data to capture fundamental changes in commodity markets. Commodities with declining inventories are allocated long positions, while those with increasing inventories are allocated short positions[33][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Inventory Factor**: Changes in inventory levels are calculated to assess supply-demand dynamics. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with declining inventories are dynamically allocated long positions, while those with increasing inventories are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Rebalancing**: Positions are adjusted periodically based on updated inventory data[35][49]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy is effective in capturing fundamental supply-demand imbalances but may be sensitive to data accuracy and reporting delays[49]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 3.03% (YTD 2025)[33][38] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 2. Commodity Time-Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: -1.33% (YTD 2025)[45] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 3. Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 2.88% (YTD 2025)[49] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Roll Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the contango or backwardation state of a commodity to capture the term structure premium[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the roll yield as the difference between the spot price and the futures price. 2. Normalize the roll yield across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their roll yields and allocate positions accordingly[35]. 2. Factor Name: Trend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures medium- to long-term price trends using technical indicators[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use moving averages, momentum, and other technical indicators to identify trends. 2. Normalize trend signals across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their trend strength and allocate positions accordingly[35]. 3. Factor Name: Inventory Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures changes in inventory levels to capture supply-demand imbalances[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the percentage change in inventory levels over a specified period. 2. Normalize inventory changes across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their inventory changes and allocate positions accordingly[35]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Roll Yield Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 2. Trend Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 3. Inventory Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned