Group 1: Trade Performance - In July 2025, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year (in USD), up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year (in USD), recovering 3 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Overall trade data defied market consensus, showing resilient exports and stronger-than-expected imports[5] Group 2: Export Dynamics - Exports to the US weakened again after a brief recovery in June, influenced by the postponement of tariffs[5] - Despite the decline in exports to the US and ASEAN, overall export growth rebounded due to increased market exploration in Europe and emerging economies[5] - Exports to the EU rose significantly, with a growth rate of 9.2% in July, indicating a shift towards European markets[7] Group 3: Import Insights - July's import growth of 4.1% was surprising, supported mainly by imports of semiconductors and machinery[8] - There was a divergence in import performance, with raw materials like iron ore and coal remaining weak, while crude oil and copper imports showed improvement[8] - The recovery in imports may be more influenced by external demand rather than domestic economic recovery[8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected due to active market expansion by domestic exporters, but import recovery may be more volatile[5] - The sustainability of export strength hinges on US demand, which is anticipated to weaken in the second half of the year[9] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings and unexpected changes in domestic economic conditions[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Viewpoints - Longxin General (隆鑫通用) is a leading player in the domestic motorcycle industry, with motorcycle export sales expected to exceed 1.5 million units in 2024, ranking first in the industry. The motorcycle business revenue is projected to reach 12.69 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, marking a historical high [3][4]. - The domestic motorcycle market is experiencing a clear structural evolution, with the penetration of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles accelerating. The penetration rate of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles in domestic sales has increased from 2.5% in 2020 to 11.4% in the first half of 2025, with expectations to reach 12% and 20% by 2025 and 2030, respectively [3][48]. - The global motorcycle market has a capacity of approximately 50 million units, with the overseas market for motorcycles above 250cc expected to have a market space of 5.5 million units in 2024, which is over nine times the domestic sales volume [4][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Longxin General is a diversified enterprise focused on the research, production, and sales of motorcycles, engines, general machinery, and other products. The company has undergone several strategic phases since its establishment, including partnerships with BMW and the launch of its high-end brand, Wujie [14][38]. - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% from 2019 to 2024. The motorcycle and engine business contributed over 75% of the total revenue in 2024 [18][39]. Motorcycle Industry - The domestic motorcycle market is witnessing a shift towards mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, driven by increasing consumer demand for leisure and recreational use. The market potential remains significant, with a projected increase in sales and penetration rates [40][48]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape of the motorcycle export market, emphasizing the advantages of domestic brands in terms of product quality and cost-effectiveness, which positions them favorably against international competitors [4][12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 20.16 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 1.88 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.91 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 12, and 10 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][7]. - The investment suggestion is based on the dual expansion of the Wujie brand in both product and channel aspects, which is anticipated to accelerate growth through volume and profit resonance [6][39].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [36]. Core Insights - In July, the S&P Global Services PMI for China rose to 52.6, an increase of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, while the China Caixin Services Business Activity Index fell to 50.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [3]. - The divergence between the two service PMIs in July represents the largest gap in nearly two and a half years, highlighting different underlying trends in the service sector [3][4]. - The Caixin Services PMI is more reflective of the retail and real estate sectors, while the S&P PMI captures the impact of international tourism on China's service industry [5][8]. Summary by Sections Section 1: PMI Analysis - The Caixin Services PMI covers a broader sample of over a thousand companies across approximately 40 industry categories, while the S&P Services PMI includes only 650 companies and focuses on a narrower range of industries [4][5]. - Historical data shows that divergences between the two PMIs often occur when the retail and real estate sectors are underperforming, while tourism is thriving [5][22]. Section 2: Sector Performance - The Caixin Services PMI is better at tracking the retail sector's performance, as it aligns more closely with the growth rate of social retail sales [23][26]. - The S&P Services PMI's high readings are largely driven by the recovery in tourism, with a strong correlation to air passenger traffic [8][31]. Section 3: Economic Indicators - The report suggests that the decline in the Caixin Services PMI may signal a cooling in the real estate market, while the S&P PMI reflects a robust tourism sector [6][8]. - The analysis indicates that the Caixin Services PMI is more sensitive to changes in the real estate market, as evidenced by its stronger correlation with housing price indices [6][27].

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" theme has a broader industry coverage compared to the supply-side reform from 2015-2018, including sectors like photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, steel, coal, building materials, basic chemicals, and pig farming [22][23][28] - The steel and coal industries are transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking, with steel profitability already improving, while photovoltaic and medical devices show stronger demand for "anti-involution" [27][28] - The report highlights that the photovoltaic and medical device sectors are in an active destocking phase, with high potential for price rebound if successful [27][28] Group 2 - The equity market is experiencing a slight decline in sentiment, with expectations for a high-level fluctuation in August, as the overall financial and industrial sentiment has decreased [31][32] - The 10Y government bond yield is expected to slightly decline to 1.70% in August, influenced by factors such as economic growth and inflation [50][53] - The real estate sector is under increasing demand-side pressure, with the industry pressure index rising slightly to 0.597, indicating a potential worsening of the market situation [69][71] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on high win-rate and high payout industries, including computer, electric equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, transportation, and light manufacturing [4] - The "clearing reversal" strategy suggests investing in industries that are at the end of the clearing phase, with rising demand and improved competitive landscape, such as oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and utilities [4][88] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of small-cap stocks, which have shown a slight increase in attention compared to large-cap stocks [87][88]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the heavy truck industry [7] Core Insights - The report focuses on the upgrade of the heavy truck industry chain driven by the mandatory installation of Beidou systems and the digitalization of insurance, with significant policy support expected to generate large-scale installation demand [4][11] - The heavy truck market is entering a structural recovery phase, with a year-on-year sales growth of 5.8% in the first half of 2025, indicating a gradual recovery trend since February [8][22] - The integration of Beidou technology is expected to enhance operational efficiency and data monetization, creating a sustainable business model from policy-driven installation to data value realization [30][38] Summary by Sections 1. Beidou Positioning and Heavy Truck Industry Upgrade - The mandatory installation of Beidou systems is transforming vehicle management from manual experience to real-time data, supporting dynamic scheduling and safety improvements [15] - The heavy truck market is experiencing a recovery with increasing concentration among leading companies, driven by demand recovery and policy support [16][24] - The new Beidou terminal solutions offer significant advantages in cost, precision, and safety, becoming the mainstream choice for heavy trucks [30][35] 2. Heavy Truck Insurance Challenges and Digital Solutions - The heavy truck insurance market faces a supply-demand imbalance, with high accident risks leading to reduced underwriting by insurance companies [9][44] - Digital transformation is essential for the heavy truck insurance market, leveraging high-frequency data from Beidou terminals to enhance risk management and pricing accuracy [10][42] - The report suggests a shift towards a usage-based insurance (UBI) model, which could improve risk assessment and reduce claims costs [53][57] 3. Investment Recommendations - The heavy truck industry is poised for structural opportunities driven by the dual forces of mandatory Beidou installation and insurance digitalization, with leading companies like Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group expected to benefit [11][61] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that actively promote the large-scale application of Beidou technology, highlighting their potential for data monetization and enhanced operational efficiency [11][61]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Random Forest Model **Model Construction Idea**: The core idea of the Random Forest model is to build multiple decision tree models and integrate their results to make predictions. It enhances generalization performance by reducing feature correlation through random feature selection and uses ensemble learning to improve accuracy and robustness[7][15][30]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use bootstrap sampling to extract multiple subsets from the original dataset[30]. 2. Build a decision tree for each subset, randomly selecting a portion of features at each node for splitting[31][32]. 3. Repeat the above steps until the specified number of decision trees is generated[33]. **Formula**: Entropy of the dataset: $ H(D)=-\sum\nolimits_{i=1}^{m}p_{i}log_{2}(p_{i}) $ Conditional entropy for feature "Market Sentiment": $ H(D|A)=\sum_{v\in{Values(A)}}\frac{|D_{v}|}{|D|}H(D_{v}) $ Information gain: $ Gain(D,A)=H(D)-H(D|A) $[22][24][25] **Model Evaluation**: The Random Forest model has strong generalization ability, effectively handles high-dimensional and missing data, and provides feature importance analysis. However, it has high computational complexity and sensitivity to parameter changes[12][66][70]. Model Backtesting Results - **Random Forest Model**: - **Annualized Return**: 39.76%[11][65] - **Excess Return**: 40.01%[11][65] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 2.82[11][65] - **Year-to-Date Return (2025)**: 73.81%[11][65] - **Year-to-Date Excess Return (2025)**: 60.49%[11][65] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -17.14%[65] - **Excess Maximum Drawdown**: -6.59%[65] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 4.78[65] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Selection**: Factors with an IC absolute value greater than 2.5% were selected for model fitting[8][44]. - **Factor List**: - **Positive IC Factors**: Turnover rate (6.44%), P/NAV (17.21%), Flow market value (22.02%), Previous week's return (15.38%), etc. - **Negative IC Factors**: Previous closing price (-9.95%), Opening price (-10.81%), Valuation of CSI REITs (-8.41%), etc.[45][46] Factor Backtesting Results - **Selected Factors**: - **IC Range**: From -23.87% to 22.02%[45][46] Model Construction Details - **Parameter Sensitivity Analysis**: - **Number of Trees (n_estimators)**: Tested within the range of 1 to 200. Optimal value selected at 100 based on RMSE minimization[49][51]. - **Feature Count (max_features)**: No restriction applied due to the limited number of features (27 factors)[52][53]. - **Tree Depth (max_depth)**: Optimal depth determined as 15 through grid search[55][58]. - **Minimum Samples per Leaf (min_samples_leaf)**: Optimal value determined as 15 through grid search[55][58]. Model Performance Metrics - **In-Sample Results**: - **Mean Squared Error (MSE)**: 0.00044[59] - **Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)**: 0.021[60] - **R² (Coefficient of Determination)**: 0.501[61] - **Out-of-Sample Results**: - **R²**: 0.51983 (max_depth=15, min_samples_leaf=10)[56][58] Model Evaluation - **Advantages**: - Captures nonlinear relationships and complex interactions[68]. - Robust against noise and overfitting[68]. - Provides feature importance evaluation for better interpretability[68][69]. - **Disadvantages**: - High computational cost and complexity[70]. - Requires extensive hyperparameter tuning[70]. - Limited interpretability compared to linear models[70]. - Potential overfitting with deep trees[70]. - Challenges in handling imbalanced datasets[70].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading platform in high-end manufacturing, with significant revenue growth driven by its diversified business segments, including consumer electronics, new intelligent products, and new energy vehicles [1][2][3]. - The acquisition of Jabil has strengthened the company's position in the consumer electronics sector, enhancing its market share among overseas clients [2][49]. - The company is actively entering high-growth sectors such as AIDC and robotics, which are expected to contribute to its future growth [2][54]. - The acceleration of automotive intelligence and the push for equal access to smart driving technology are propelling the company's new energy vehicle business into a high-growth phase [3][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Platform Expansion and Revenue Growth - The company has achieved a revenue of 177.3 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.4%, with a net profit of 4.27 billion RMB, up 5.6% [1][17]. - The revenue contributions from the three main business segments are as follows: consumer electronics (79.7%), new intelligent products (8.8%), and new energy vehicles (11.6%) [1][28]. 2. Deepening Consumer Electronics Sector - The company has over 20 years of experience in the consumer electronics field and has become a core supplier globally, with expectations for continued growth due to recovering market demand [2][34]. - The acquisition of Jabil is expected to expand the company's overseas client base and solidify its leadership in the consumer electronics market [2][49]. 3. Entry into High-Growth Sectors - The company is actively participating in the rapidly growing AIDC and robotics sectors, with a focus on AI-driven data center solutions [2][54]. - The company has launched new products in AI servers and is investing in R&D to support its growth in these areas [54][57]. 4. Growth in New Energy Vehicles - The company’s new energy vehicle segment has seen significant growth, with revenue reaching 20.51 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 45.5% [3][28]. - The company benefits from its relationship with BYD, which enhances its product offerings in the smart driving and intelligent cockpit systems [3][26]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 198.21 billion RMB in 2025, 218.93 billion RMB in 2026, and 242.96 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 5.27 billion RMB, 6.45 billion RMB, and 7.63 billion RMB respectively [3][5].

美国经济研究 美国经济成色究竟如何？ 2025 年 08 月 06 日 ➢ 关税给今年的宏观研究添了很多麻烦，这让"美国经济真的能完全摆脱关税 和高利率的影响平稳'着陆'？"这个困扰了大家多年的问题更加难以回答。 ➢ 从美国二季度 GDP 中我们可以窥探到部分答案，面对超预期回升的经济增 速，市场的反应并未如预想的一致乐观，这里面的原因除了有非农数据的"当头 一棒"，也有经济减速换挡的蛛丝马迹。细究结构来看，这份数据体现了贸易"噪 音"下的虚假"繁荣"，而非经济动能的真实体现。进口骤降与库存调整的短期效 应掩盖了内需疲软、投资放缓和通胀压力积压等诸多结构性矛盾。当前来看，美 国国内经济需求已经难言乐观，消费和投资都存在明显退坡的风险。 ➢ 通过二季度 GDP 数据，我们来剖析下这幅"虚实交织"的美国经济图景： [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 陶川 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100524060005 | | | 邮箱： | taochuan@mszq.com | | 分析师 | 林彦 | | 执业证书： S0100525030001 | | | 邮箱： | linyan@ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The further decline of US Treasury yields before September may be primarily driven by weaker economic data leading to higher expectations of interest rate cuts, or by the "see - saw effect" triggered by the weakness of other assets. The 10 - year yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 4.00 - 4.30%, but inflation and the "Big and Beautiful" Act may impede the decline of long - term yields [4][14]. - In the two - week period from July 18 to August 1, 2025, affected by the US July non - farm payroll report, global investors' risk - aversion increased, resulting in a double - kill situation in the US stock and bond markets. Different asset classes showed various trends, including significant declines in US and UK government bond yields, a new high in the Japanese stock market, a slump in the US stock market, an upward trend in the coking coal index, a decline in Chicago agricultural product futures prices, and a depreciation of the ruble and the euro [5][15]. Summary According to the Directory 1. What Conditions are Needed for the Further Decline of US Treasury Yields? - **Monetary Policy**: At the July FOMC meeting, the interest rate and other monetary policies remained at the June level, in line with market expectations. Waller and Bowman voted against interest rate cuts, citing signs of weakness in the labor market, and Kugler, who was set to leave early, did not attend or vote. Kugler's early departure may increase Trump's influence on the Fed and lead to more divided views within the Fed [1][10]. - **Growth**: Q2 GDP showed a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.0%, but the main drivers were a decline in imports and accelerated consumer spending. Private consumption and investment weakened, with PDFP growing by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter, lower than the 1.9% in Q1 [2][10]. - **Inflation**: In June, inflationary pressures emerged, with CPI at 2.7%, core CPI at 2.9%, PCE at 2.6%, and core PCE at 2.8%, all reaching the highest levels since March [2][10]. - **Employment**: In July, the ADP employment figure rebounded unexpectedly, but the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, which greatly disrupted the interest rate market expectations, causing the 1 - year yield to decline by about 17bp on August 1 [2][11]. - **Policy Stance**: Some Fed presidents still recognize the resilience of the economy and employment and maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance, denying the risk of recession and affirming the risk of stagflation [3][12]. 2. Bi - weekly Overseas Macro - analysis - **Interest Rates**: In the past two weeks, US Treasury yields declined significantly, with the 1 - year and 10 - year yields both dropping 21bp to 3.87% and 4.23% respectively. Affected by US Treasuries, UK government bond yields also declined on August 1, increasing investors' risk - aversion [5][16]. - **Equities**: The Japanese stock market reached a new high, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 2.46% in the past two weeks, driven by the US - Japan trade agreement on July 23. However, trading volume was low in July. The US stock market slumped after the release of the July non - farm payroll report, with the Nasdaq index dropping 2.29% on the night of the report release [17]. - **Commodities**: The coking coal index rose 12.07% in the past two weeks after the central government emphasized governance of low - price and disorderly competition in the coal industry. Chicago agricultural product futures prices fell across the board, pressured by high expectations of a bumper US autumn harvest [18]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The ruble depreciated by 3.44% in the past two weeks after the Russian central bank cut interest rates by 200 basis points on July 25. The euro fell 1.24% due to the impact of the US - EU trade agreement and a decline in investor confidence [19]. 3. Market Tracking - The report presents multiple charts, including the bi - weekly fluctuations of global major economies' government bond yields, global major stock indices, major commodities, and global major foreign exchange rates (against the RMB), as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, and the yield curves and inflation trends of US, Japanese, and German government bonds [24][28][30][32][35][41][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [8][15]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve total operating revenue of 584 million yuan in Q2 2025, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 49.90%. The order backlog reached 3.025 billion yuan, a 23.17% increase from the end of Q1 2025, marking a historical high [3]. - The company's intellectual property and mass production business segments showed remarkable performance, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 99.83%. Specifically, the revenue from intellectual property licensing fees is expected to be 187 million yuan, up 99.63% quarter-on-quarter and 16.97% year-on-year [3]. - The company has strengthened its SoC and ASIC customization capabilities, with clients including major domestic internet giants. The ASIC business has seen rapid growth, with 2024 revenue estimated at 725 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.18% [4]. - The global trend towards chip customization is evident, with significant opportunities for ASIC development as tech giants accelerate their ASIC strategies to capture AI computing power [5]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to report net profits of -103 million yuan in 2025, with revenues projected at 3.324 billion yuan. For 2026 and 2027, net profits are forecasted to be 45 million yuan and 314 million yuan, respectively, with revenues of 4.315 billion yuan and 5.535 billion yuan [7][12]. - The projected growth rates for revenue are 43.2% in 2025, 29.8% in 2026, and 28.3% in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in financial performance [7][13].