投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 14 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/10/13 | -87.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/10/10 | -96.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/10/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/10/13 2025/10/10 2025/10/09 2025/09/30 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign trade shows resilience with steady growth in imports and exports in the first three quarters of 2025, and the growth rate accelerates quarter - by - quarter [19] - Gold prices reach new highs, and institutions predict further price increases in the future [5][6] - The U.S. economic growth forecast is raised, but employment growth is expected to remain weak [3] - The price of refined oil is reduced, and the probability of the next adjustment being downward is high [11] - The price of live - hog futures hits a record low, and the pork market is in a "peak - season but low - price" situation [15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q2 2025 is 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing PMI business activity index is 50.0% [1] - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 is 6.0%, showing an upward trend [1] - In September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports are 8.3% and 7.4% respectively, showing a significant increase [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports are 33.61 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.1% and imports decreasing by 0.2% [2] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited establishes a new subsidiary in Dubai to expand commodity business and promote connectivity between China and the Middle East [3] - Economists raise the growth forecast of the U.S. economy for this year and next year, but expect employment growth to be weak [3] - On October 13, the Baltic Dry Index rises by 10.74% to 2144 points [4] 3.2.2 Metals - On October 14, the price of New York gold futures hits a record high of $4150 per ounce, and spot gold also reaches a new high [5] - The silver market experiences a rare short - squeeze, and the price of spot silver breaks through $52 per ounce [6] - The ILZSG predicts that the global lead and zinc supply and demand situation will change in 2025 and 2026 [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Zangge Mining's subsidiary resumes lithium resource development and utilization activities [9] - In September 2025, China's imports of soybeans, iron ore, and coal reach record or near - record highs [9] - Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 production of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum is announced [10] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Since October 13, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are reduced, and the probability of the next adjustment being downward is high [11] - China Petrochemical Beijing Petroleum Company promotes the transformation of traditional gas stations into comprehensive energy stations [11] - Saudi Aramco's CEO expects strong global oil demand in the next two years [12] - OPEC's September 2025 crude oil production data is released [12][13] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The live - hog futures price hits a record low, and the spot price of pork also shows a continuous downward trend [15] - The Chinese government arranges "Sanqiu" production work to ensure autumn grain harvest [16] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 13, the central bank conducts 1378 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1378 billion yuan [17] 3.3.2 Important News - China starts to collect special port fees on U.S. ships [18] - Trump hints at canceling new tariffs on China [18] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will be held from October 27 to 30 [20] - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 is completed [20] - The 9 - month non - standard trust market shows a significant divergence in volume and price [20] - Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission launches a "real estate fund hotline" [21] - China's real estate - related special bonds increase significantly in the first three quarters of 2025 [21] - Vanke's board chairman changes [21] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rebound, and the prices of Vanke and Shenzhen Metro bonds generally fall [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closes down, and the prices of some convertible bonds fluctuate significantly [25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closes down, and the US dollar index rises [29] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income believes that the issuance and net financing of local bonds will decline [30] - Guoxin Fixed - Income suggests not being overly aggressive in the convertible bond market due to increased uncertainties [31] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the short - term bond market has a high probability of winning but not to over - chase the rise [31] 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The A - share market opens lower and rebounds, with some sectors rising and some falling [35] - The Hong Kong stock market closes down, and the net inflow of southbound funds is significant [35][36] - Foreign capital continues to be optimistic about Chinese core assets and increases their allocation [36] - Insurance funds are optimistic about the A - share market in Q4 and focus on two investment lines [36] - The issuance of new funds is hot, and equity funds are the main force [36]

运筹帷幄决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 42 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 3144.10 万吨，环比增 368.30 万吨，持续回升并刷新年内单周新高；其中澳矿 到货环比增 167.00 万吨，巴西矿到货增 95.20 万吨，非澳巴矿环比增 106.10 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运有所回落，全球矿石发运总量为 3207.50 万吨，环比降 71.54 万吨，高位持续小幅回 落。其中澳洲发运环比降 63.56 万吨，多因 RIO 发运减 124.45 万吨所致，巴西矿发运降 31.30 万吨，非澳 巴矿发运环比增 23.32 万吨，低位有所回升； 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将高位回落，整体降幅有限，海外矿石供应维持高位。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 10 月 13 日 橡胶甲醇原油 利空因素压制 能化偏弱运行 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，弱势下行， 大幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心大幅下移至 14940 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价大幅收低 2.73%至 14940 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度收敛至 15 元/吨。随着台风利多因素逐渐消化，胶市重新回归由偏弱供需结构所 主导的行情中。在宏观预期偏弱的背景下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡上行， 大幅上涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2358 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2302 元/吨，收盘时大幅收涨 2.05%至 2342 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度收敛 至 12 元/吨。受偏弱的甲醇供需基本面压制，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约继续反弹，面临较大阻力，关注 20 日均线压力。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 外部扰动影响有限，股指震荡整理 核心观点 今日各股指低开，全天震荡整理，小幅收跌。沪深京三市全天成交额 23742 亿元，较上日缩量 1599 亿元。消息面，上周五特朗普突发关税威胁， 11 月之前外部不确定性风险因素上升，叠加股指估值水平提升明显，投资 者止盈"落袋为安"的意愿有所升温。不过特朗普关税威胁对 A 股的影响趋 于短线，边际效应弱于今年 4 月初。从宏观基本面的角度来看，内需有效需 求不足的问题仍存，外部关税因素的扰动仍存，未来政策面稳定宏观基本面 的预期较强，政策利好预期构成股指的较强支撑。另外，A 股的投资属性受 到政策面重视，社会财富配置股市的趋势显现，资金面持续流入推动股指的 估值端修复。总的来说，股指后续走势重点关注政策利好预期发酵节奏与获 利资金止盈节奏的相互博弈，短期内股指预计保持宽幅震荡为主。 目前期权隐含波动率仍处于低位，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以继续 持有牛市价差或备兑。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货延续底部震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均高开，全天小幅收涨。消息面，上周五特朗普突发关税 威胁，资本市场风险偏好快速回落，避险情绪升温，利多国债期货。从宏观 基本面的角度来看，目前国内需求有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来需要偏宽 松的货币环境，政策宽松预期仍存，对国债期货构成较强支撑。不过短期内 国内经济数据表现较强韧性，短期内全面降息的必要性有所不足，目前市场 利率与政策利率直接隐含的降息预期较弱，国债期货上行动能也有所不足。 总的来说，短期内国债期货上行动能与下行空间均有限，以底部震荡整理为 主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色日内企稳 核心观点 沪铜 上周五夜盘，铜价由于中美贸易摩擦预期而大幅下挫，沪铜跌近 3000 元/吨。周一凌晨，美国总统特朗普再度发文，被市场视为 "TACO"交易。短期利空冲击在周五夜盘反映较为充分，国内周一 开盘前，LME 铜价触底回升，悲观情绪并未延续。沪铜早盘高开后围 绕 8.5 万一线震荡运行，持仓量变化不大。预计铜价持续企稳回升。 沪铝 上周五夜盘，铝价由于中美贸易摩擦预期而大幅下挫，沪铝跌近 300 元/吨。周一凌晨， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 10 月 13 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 贸易摩擦预期升温，市场避险需求上升 核心观点 今年国庆假期国际黄金价格持续上涨。纽约期金和伦敦金突破 4000 美元/盎司关键心理关口，假期涨幅超 4%，年内涨幅超 50%。此 番金价强势表现主要源于三大驱动因素的共振：1. 避险需求激增： 政府停摆与地缘冲突主导；2. 货币政策预期：降息交易与美元信用 受损；3. 资金结构性涌入：央行与 ETF 买盘共振全球央行净购金潮延 续。技术上，持续关注海外金价 4000 美元多空博弈，对应国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on copper prices. Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark. This was due to the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure as copper prices were at a near 5-year high, leading to a strong willingness among short-term bulls to close positions. The sharp rise was mainly caused by supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience. On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, but as prices fell, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. The short-term negative impact was fully reflected in Friday's night session, and LME copper prices rebounded before the domestic market opened on Monday. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit. However, aluminum prices faced certain pressure at the mid-September high, and there was a strong willingness among bulls to close positions. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories also put pressure on futures prices. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. Since late September, copper prices have recorded significant gains, so short-term bulls have a strong willingness to close positions. At the industrial level, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices after the holiday, but as prices fall, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. On Monday morning, US President Trump issued another statement, regarded by the market as a "TACO" trade [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark, affected by the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure [4][54]. - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Copper ore processing fees have rebounded slightly from a low level [25]. - **Electrolytic Copper De-stocking**: The pace of electrolytic copper de-stocking has slowed down [28]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: No specific content provided in the report. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit [5][55]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: No specific content provided in the report. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Stockpiling**: The pace of electrolytic aluminum stockpiling has slowed down [44]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories put pressure on futures prices [5][55]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 关税扰动情绪，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡回落，录得 0.77%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹供应收缩，而需求表现偏弱，供需双弱局面下产业矛盾持续累积， 假期库存大幅增加，钢价再度承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计螺纹 延续震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.88%日跌幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供应压力偏大，且需求存有隐忧，产业矛盾在累积，库存显著 增加，热卷价格继续承压偏弱运行，且需谨防需求转弱引发产业矛盾激 化，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 1.13%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶 段，矿石需求表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但供应高位，且需求韧性趋 弱，基本面存走弱预期，加之关税扰动下市场情绪走弱，高估值矿价上 行驱动不强，预期走势维持高位震荡运行，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 ...