Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, surging then giving back gains, and stabilizing with a slight upward shift in the intraday price center to around 16,160 yuan/ton. The contract closed with a 0.53% increase at 16,160 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is currently driven by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and closing with a slight increase. The price reached a high of 2,310 yuan/ton and a low of 2,263 yuan/ton, closing 1.15% higher at 2,288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 0 yuan/ton. With differences between bulls and bears emerging, methanol futures maintained a stable and volatile trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a high of 454.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 444.4 yuan/barrel, closing 1.96% higher at 448.0 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical factors have become prominent again, overriding the weak supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term oil prices are expected to maintain a moderately bullish pattern [6]. 3. Summaries by Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons (4.48%). As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. In December 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The LPI in December 2025 was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high of 1.137 million vehicles in the past four years, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, a month - on - month increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0424 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.30%, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%; the acetic acid operating rate was 81.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.28%; the MTBE operating rate was 58.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.17%. As of January 9, 2026, the futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 264 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.1593 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons [10][11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 2, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.811 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day. As of the week of January 2, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 419 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.832 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.414 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.84 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 728,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 413.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 245,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 percentage points. As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 57,352 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 7,239 contracts and a 2.41% decrease from the December average. As of January 6, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 120,686 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 6,220 contracts and a 14.44% increase from the December average [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 16,160 yuan/ton | +185 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,280 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | 2,288 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 417.2 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 448.0 yuan/barrel | +1.3 yuan/barrel | - 30.8 yuan/barrel | - 1.2 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and operating rate charts, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [17][30][42].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the price of lithium carbonate is weakening. The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate, along with related indicators such as basis, registered warehouse receipts, and supply - demand relationships, are analyzed [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - Futures market: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 161,940 yuan/ton, down 5,040 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Spot market: The spot price of lithium carbonate was 163,050 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Basis analysis: The current basis was - 2,330 points (spot discount), 5,910 points stronger than the previous day, with the basis fluctuating in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate was 27,158 lots, an increase of 260 lots (+0.97%) from the previous day, showing an overall increase in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Supply - demand relationship: Some domestic lithium salt production lines are undergoing seasonal maintenance [5]. 3.2 Industry Dynamics - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 161,940 yuan/ton, down 5,040 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 19,640 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the settlement price was 165,380 yuan/ton, down 2,480 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 23,860 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium spodumene: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrates, as well as South African CIF China lithium spodumene ore, have different price ranges and changes compared with the previous day and 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium mica: The prices of lithium mica with different Li2O contents in the Chinese market have increased compared with the previous day and 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate was 163,050 yuan/ton, up 3,430 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 29,520 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 154,120 yuan/ton, up 3,560 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 30,060 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. - Ternary materials and related products: The prices of some ternary precursors and materials have changed to varying degrees compared with 5 trading days ago, while some prices remained unchanged compared with the previous day [7]. - Downstream products: The price of cobalt acid lithium (≥60%, domestic) was 396,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 11,500 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 25,000 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. 3.3 Related Charts - Ore and lithium prices: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and lithium hydroxide - lithium carbonate price difference [9]. - Cathode & ternary materials: There are charts showing the prices of manganese acid lithium, domestic iron phosphate lithium, domestic cobalt acid lithium (≥60%), ternary precursors, and ternary materials [12]. - Other related data of lithium carbonate futures: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of the lithium carbonate main contract [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume, with the open interest rising to 700,000 contracts during the session. The main contract price broke through the previous high during the session but fell back in the afternoon. As the delivery approaches, the discount of the 01 contract has weakened significantly, reflecting a decline in short - term spot market purchasing willingness. Although silver has been rising continuously in the short term, the upward movement of copper prices has slowed down significantly, with insufficient capital - driven willingness. The futures price may fluctuate and wait for industrial follow - up [6]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell today. The main contract price approached the 25,000 - yuan mark during the session and dropped significantly with reduced positions in the afternoon. The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, and the willingness of long - position holders to close positions is strong. As the aluminum price has reached the 24,000 - yuan mark, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has increased significantly. Technically, it once broke through the 2021 high during the session but then fell back, and the reference for the resistance level remains valid [7]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rose and then fell today, with the open interest continuously decreasing. In the afternoon, the macro - atmosphere cooled, and most non - ferrous metals declined. Nickel has accumulated a gain of over 30% since its low in late December, and the short - term willingness of long - position holders to close positions is strong. The short - term amplitude of nickel prices has narrowed significantly, and the willingness of long - position holders to continue pushing up is insufficient. Industrially, the electrolytic nickel inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME have continued to rise, and the weak industrial reality pattern remains unchanged. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 140,000 - yuan mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The copper price maintained a strong trend during the session, but the refined copper rod industry had a dull transaction, with weak orders. Downstream buyers were cautious and mostly held a wait - and - see attitude, mainly making purchases based on rigid demand. As tomorrow is the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2601 contract, due to the continuous widening of the monthly spread, sellers have reduced their willingness to sell, and it is expected that the spot premium or discount to the current - month contract will remain strong tomorrow [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 14, 2026, it was reported that the aluminum ingot premium at major Japanese ports (MJP) in the first quarter of 2026 was $195 per ton, up $109 per ton from $86 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2025, a rise of 126.7% [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][16]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, overseas electrolytic aluminum exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel price trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, showing a pattern of decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand is weak, with the fundamentals operating weakly. Steel prices in the off - season continue to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. Subsequently, rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily decrease of 0.09%, also showing decreasing volume and increasing open interest. At present, hot - rolled coil supply is continuously increasing while demand has slightly declined. Both supply and demand are at high levels, and the supply - increasing and demand - weakening fundamentals are operating weakly, putting pressure on prices. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. It is expected that the price trend will maintain an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.06%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, iron ore supply remains at a high level, and the improvement in demand is limited. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and inventories are rising at a high level, with weak upward drivers. The relatively positive factor is the pre - holiday restocking. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Exports were 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1%, and imports were 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5%. The total value of imports and exports reached a new high, and China will continue to maintain its position as the world's largest goods trading country [7]. - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached new historical highs, with production at 34.531 million vehicles and sales at 34.4 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. It has ranked first in the world for 17 consecutive years. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for over 50% of domestic new vehicle sales. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, and exports of new energy vehicles reached 2.615 million vehicles, doubling year - on - year [8]. - In 2025, China exported 119.019 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%, and imported 517,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. From January to December, China imported 6.059 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. In December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%. From January to December, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,341 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan, and the national average price was 3,308 yuan. - Tangshan billet: The spot price was 2,970 yuan. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price was 2,110 yuan. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 821 yuan. - Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis): The price was 782 yuan. - Ocean freight: Australia was 7.56 yuan, and Brazil was 20.83 yuan. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 108.19 yuan. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): The price was 108.20 yuan [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,162 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 764,719 contracts, a decrease of 73,160 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,691,461 contracts, an increase of 3,518 contracts [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,306 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09%. The trading volume was 309,018 contracts, a decrease of 95,043 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,448,875 contracts, an increase of 8,625 contracts [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 821.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.06%. The trading volume was 238,116 contracts, a decrease of 73,505 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 662,688 contracts, an increase of 9,381 contracts [14]. Related Charts - Steel inventories: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [16]. - Iron ore inventories: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (inventory and its monthly change, seasonal inventory), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [24]. - Steel mill production: Included charts of the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 independent electric arc furnace steel mills for building materials [31]. 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory. Building steel mills are continuously resuming production, and the weekly output of rebar has increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and has room for further increase. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. High - frequency transactions have rebounded due to holiday factors, but both are still at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. Subsequently, rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [41]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has not changed much. Plate steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and is at a relatively high level, and the high inventory level has not alleviated the supply pressure, continuing to put pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency daily transactions are at a low level. The relatively positive factor is that the production of downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, providing support for hot - rolled coil demand, but industrial contradictions are accumulating, and export performance is average, so there are concerns about demand. It is expected that the price trend will maintain an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [42]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is operating weakly, and inventories are continuously rising. Steel mills are starting to resume production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded from a low level. Last week, the average daily hot metal output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills increased month - on - month, but the overall increase was not large. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the off - season steel market can hardly accommodate a large - scale increase in production, so the room for improvement in iron ore demand is limited and the positive effect is weak. Meanwhile, port arrivals are continuously increasing, and the shipments of miners are weakly stable, both at relatively high levels. Overseas iron ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply is also rebounding, so iron ore supply remains at a relatively high level. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [43].

焦煤：1 月 14 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1196.5 点，日内下跌 1.52%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.13 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-3199 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1215.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 9.46%。整体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面 难言明显改善，但经济政策预期、"反内卷"政策预期、下游冬储补库预 期，以及春节煤矿减产预期等利好驱动渐显，多空因素交织，带动焦煤期 货低位震荡调整。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 14 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 持续性驱动有限，煤焦维持低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：1 月 14 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1738.5 元/吨，日内录得 1.28%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.84 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +472 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1490 元/吨，周 环比上涨 1.36%。本周，下游钢厂逐渐复产，但复产速度偏缓 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for TL2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Due to insufficient effective domestic demand, there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. With the decline of Treasury bond spot prices and the central bank's net injection in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, the strong resilience of December's macro - economic data reduces the urgency of a short - term interest rate cut, so the upward momentum is also insufficient. Overall, short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weak | Oscillation and consolidation | Low short - term interest rate cut probability, medium - and long - term easing expectation [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weak - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation and consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. The upward and downward momentum is limited. Due to insufficient domestic demand, a loose monetary and credit environment is needed, so there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. The decline of spot prices and the central bank's net injection reduce the downward momentum, while the strong December macro - economic data reduces the short - term urgency of a rate cut, limiting the upward momentum. Short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2.6% in 2026, according to the World Bank. The US GDP growth rate is projected to reach 2.2%, while the eurozone and Japan's economic growth rates are expected to slow down to 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. The US employment market remains weak, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by about 50bps in 2026. The price of oil is predicted to decline in 2026 due to an oversupply in the global market, and the price of coal may perform better than in 2025. Many metal futures prices have reached record highs, and institutions are still bullish on gold. The Chinese government is promoting the development of circular economy and industrial internet platforms, and taking measures to boost the service industry and consumption [10][19][31] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, and the non-manufacturing PMI for business activity was 50.2%. In November 2025, the monthly social financing scale was 2488.8 billion yuan, and the新增 RMB loans by financial institutions were 390 billion yuan. In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year. In November 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -2.6%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.0%. In November 2025, the monthly export amount increased by 5.9% year-on-year, and the monthly import amount increased by 1.9% year-on-year [1] Commodity Investment Reference - **Comprehensive**: The trading and intraday closing transaction fees for certain lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted, and trading volume limits will be imposed. On January 13, 2026, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 30 had negative basis. China will continue to impose anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the US and South Korea for 5 years. The Fed's Williams believes the current economic situation is favorable, with no strong pressure for interest rate adjustments. The CME Group plans to launch a 100-ounce silver futures contract in February [2][3] - **Metals**: Since the beginning of 2026, the futures prices of many metal varieties have reached record highs. The price of Shanghai aluminum's main contract has exceeded 25,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai copper has exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton. Many gold industry listed companies expect significant performance growth in 2025. The copper inventory in LME registered warehouses has decreased by 22%, and the copper inventory in US COMEX warehouses has increased by 444% in the past 12 months. The Chilean National Mining Association expects the copper price to be at $4.5 per pound in 2026 [5][6][7] - **Coking Coal, Steel, and Minerals**: Coking coal options will be listed on the DCE on January 16, 2026. S&P predicts that the upstream of China's commodity industry will perform better than the downstream. CITIC Securities believes that the coal price in 2026 may be better than in 2025 [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Venezuela's state oil company has restarted oil wells to increase production. The EIA predicts that oil prices will decline in 2026 due to oversupply, and global oil inventories will continue to increase until 2027. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be $56 per barrel in 2026, a 19% decrease from 2025. The EIA also provides forecasts for US natural gas and oil production and demand [10][11][12] - **Agricultural Products**: As of January 11, 2026, the EU's barley exports in the 2025/26 season reached 5.4 million tons, and soft wheat exports were 11.6 million tons. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters expects the country's soybean, corn, and soybean meal exports in January 2026 to reach 3.73 million tons, 3.27 million tons, and 1.82 million tons respectively [13] Financial News Compilation - **Open Market**: On January 13, 2026, the central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 342.4 billion yuan [14] - **Important News and Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate the "15th Five-Year" plan for circular economy development. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes that enterprises should participate in industry rule-making and resist "involution". The US has relaxed the export regulations of NVIDIA's H200 chips to China. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued an action plan for the high-quality development of industrial internet platforms. Eight departments have introduced measures to promote the high-quality development of the elderly care service and silver economy. The Shanghai government has issued measures to promote the coordinated development of the service industry and consumption. Many convertible bonds will be redeemed early. The World Bank has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%. Japanese government bonds have been sold off due to concerns about fiscal deterioration. The US budget deficit in December 2025 reached a record high. The US has taken a series of actions regarding Iran. The investigation of the Fed's Chairman Powell continues to ferment. Trump has made a series of statements on economic and political issues [16][17][19] - **Bond Market Summary**: Affected by the rise in capital prices, the yields of interest rate bonds have shown a differentiated trend, and the bond market is in a volatile pattern. The prices of some Vanke bonds have risen, while others have fallen. The CSI Convertible Bond Index has declined. The money market interest rates have mostly risen. The yields of European and US bonds have shown different trends [23][24][25] - **Foreign Exchange Market Express**: The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9765 on January 13, 2026, down 23 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose 0.28%, and most non-US currencies fell [29] - **Research Report Highlights**: CICC predicts that US inflation may experience compensatory growth in December 2025, January 2026, and April 2026. CITIC Securities believes that the US employment market is still weak, and the Fed may cut interest rates by about 50bps in 2026. CITIC Construction Investment reports that the primary market issuance of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds increased in December 2025, and the secondary market indices rose. Xingzheng Fixed Income suggests focusing on the secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds of certain regional city and rural commercial banks. S&P believes that China's local governments may continue to issue large-scale debt in the next one or two years, and interest rate cuts can relieve some debt pressure. Citi warns that the continuous issuance of short-term bonds in Europe may threaten the independence of central banks [30][31][32] - **Today's Reminder**: On January 14, 2026, 178 bonds will be listed, 126 bonds will be issued, 90 bonds will make payments, and 167 bonds will pay principal and interest [33][34] Stock Market Important News - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.9% to 26,848.47 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose slightly by 0.11%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.71%. Pharmaceutical stocks generally rose, while gold and non-ferrous metals were active. Commercial aerospace and brain-computer interface concept stocks declined. Zhaoyi Innovation's H shares rose more than 37% on the first day of listing. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$1.296 billion. The ETF managed by Huaxia Fund exceeded 1 trillion yuan, becoming the first "trillion-level" ETF manager in China [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term and oscillate in the medium - term. It was strong on the day of the report, and is expected to continue the strong pattern on Wednesday [1][5]. - The core logic is that pre - holiday overseas supply "hard contraction" is the key factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices. Iran, a major import source, faces supply disruptions. Domestic port methanol inventory has decreased, leading to the repair of port spot prices and stronger basis, which boosts the futures market. The escalating US - Iran conflict may affect Iranian methanol plants, increasing geopolitical risks [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be strong, and the overall view is a strong run [1][5]. 3.2 Price Driving Logic - The pre - holiday overseas supply "hard contraction" is the main factor driving up methanol prices. Iran's supply is disrupted, and domestic port inventory reduction has led to price repair and stronger basis, which is reflected in the futures market [5]. - The escalating US - Iran conflict may cause military strikes on Iran, increasing geopolitical risks and potentially affecting Iranian methanol plants, further supporting the strong trend of methanol futures [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is to be cautious due to the cooling macro - atmosphere and potential for short - term safe - haven demand. The中期 view is strong, but the intraday view is slightly weak, and the reference view is to wait and see. For copper, the short - term and intraday views are volatile with a weak bias, the中期 view is strong, and the reference view is to be bullish in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Short - term: Volatile; Mid - term: Strong; Intraday: Slightly weak; Reference view: Wait and see. The core logic is that the macro - atmosphere cools, short - term safe - haven demand rises, last night's gold price rose and then fell, short - term movement is greatly affected by silver, and be cautious of gold price decline due to silver long - position liquidation [1][3]. Copper - Short - term: Volatile; Mid - term: Strong; Intraday: Slightly weak; Reference view: Bullish in the long - term. The core logic is that last night's copper price rose and then fell, affected by precious metals especially silver. This week, copper price increase has slowed, and short - term capital push is insufficient, waiting for industry follow - up [1][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly consists of various commodity futures data. Summary by Commodity Categories 1. Power Coal - Provided power coal basis data from January 7 - 14, 2026, with the basis on January 13 being -100 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Presented basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 7 - 13, 2026, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [7] Chemical Commodities - Showed cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol from January 7 - 13, 2026 [9][10] 3. Black Metals - Provided cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 7 - 13, 2026 [19][20][21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Presented domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 7 - 13, 2026 [30] London Market - Showed LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals on January 13, 2026 [33] 5. Agricultural Products - Provided basis, cross - period, and cross - variety data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sugar, and cotton from January 7 - 13, 2026 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - Presented basis and cross - period data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 7 - 13, 2026 [49][51]