1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being slightly weaker. The current situation is weakly stable, and the ore price will move in an oscillatory manner [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not improved. Demand continues to weaken and steel mills' profitability has not improved, keeping the weak pattern. The supply remains high, but there are positive factors like the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. The ore price will continue to face pressure but also has resistance to decline, and will continue to oscillate at a high level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) trend is oscillatory, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is slightly weaker. The overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the current pattern is weakly stable, leading to oscillatory movement of the ore price [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand situation is unfavorable, with demand weakening continuously and steel mills' profit not improving, which keeps the pressure on the ore price. The positive factors are the pre - holiday restocking expectation and the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market. Although the domestic port arrival and miners' shipments have decreased month - on - month, they are still at a high level within the year, and the overseas ore supply is active. The overall supply remains high, and under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- < END > 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On Wednesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing sharply higher. The intraday price center shifted significantly up to around 15,650 yuan/ton, closing up 2.42% at 15,650 yuan/ton. The 1-5 month spread discount widened to 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, and the rubber price broke out of the triangular range and formed an upward breakthrough pattern [6]. - On Wednesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,179 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,143 yuan/ton, closing up 0.88% at 2,172 yuan/ton. The 1-5 month spread discount widened to 38 yuan/ton. Supported by a small rebound in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures started an oscillating and strengthening trend [6]. - On Wednesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of decreasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rebounding. The futures price rose to a maximum of 444.8 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 439.7 yuan/barrel, closing up 0.68% at 444.7 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have become prominent again, and the conflict between the United States and Venezuela has escalated, posing risks to the export of Venezuelan crude oil. The strengthening of geopolitical premiums has driven the oil price to rebound, and crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,300 tons or 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%. The general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.02 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.73 percentage points [10]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week-on-week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week-on-week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production by maintenance enterprises during the week drove the capacity utilization rate to a certain extent. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run steadily and weakly this week. Currently, the shipment rhythms of enterprises vary, with most enterprises having slow shipments. Under production and sales pressure, enterprises will continue flexible production control. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, it is not ruled out that individual enterprises will conduct maintenance or reduce production [10]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom-bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [11]. - In November 2025, China's heavy truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month-on-month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year and a year-on-year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, China's heavy truck market has sold more than 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 26% [11]. Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 84.31%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.57%, a slight month-on-month increase of 0.37%, and a small increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.37%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.03%. In the case of dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 8.68%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 73.81%, a week-on-week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 59.12%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.21%. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plants was 82.06%, a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a slight month-on-month increase of 0.24%. As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was -205 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a significant month-on-month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East China and South China regions in China remained at 1.0201 million tons, a significant week-on-week decrease of 98,400 tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 38,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 32,500 tons, and a small increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 406, a week-on-week decrease of 8 and a decrease of 77 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.843 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a significant year-on-year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [13]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant year-on-year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, in the United States reached 20.862 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 742,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 412.2 million barrels, a week-on-week increase of 249,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States remained at 94.8%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month-on-month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a small year-on-year increase of 3.0 percentage points [14]. - As of December 9, 2025, the average non-commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 58,433 contracts, a significant week-on-week increase of 7,396 contracts and a significant decrease of 6,438 contracts or 9.92% compared with the November average of 64,871 contracts. On the other hand, as of December 16, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 40,988 contracts, a significant week-on-week decrease of 72,871 contracts and a significant decrease of 114,200 contracts or 73.59% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,100 yuan/ton | +250 yuan/ton | 15,650 yuan/ton | +360 yuan/ton | -550 yuan/ton | -110 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,172 yuan/ton | +16 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | -6 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 408.2 yuan/barrel | -0.3 yuan/barrel | 444.7 yuan/barrel | +3.8 yuan/barrel | -36.5 yuan/barrel | -4.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 1-5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all-steel tire operating rate trend, and semi-steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][18][21][22][24]. - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 1-5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefins operating rate change, and coal-to-methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][39]. - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46][48][50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the stock indices showed mixed trends. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 rose significantly, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 fluctuated within a narrow range. The total stock market turnover was 1897.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The power equipment, commercial space, consumer electronics, and liquid - cooled server sectors led the gains, which was favorable for small - and medium - cap indices. The stock market is still in a sector rotation market, with the overall trading volume not significantly increasing. Active funds are concentrated in high - growth sectors, resulting in a structural differentiation of the indices. In the long - term, positive policy expectations and the inflow of funds form the long - term support for the indices. In the short - term, as the end of the year approaches, the liquidity of funds has tightened, and the incremental policy signals are not clear, so the short - term upward driving force of the stock indices is insufficient. Overall, the stock indices will maintain a range - bound trend in the short - term [3]. - Currently, both the PCR of open interest and the implied volatility are within the normal range. A bull spread or ratio spread strategy with a mild bullish view can be adopted for options trading [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On December 24, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.03% to close at 3.099; the 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.36% to close at 4.757; the 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.42% to close at 4.832; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.29% to close at 4634.06; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.54% to close at 7506.38; the 500ETF (SSE) rose 1.30% to close at 7.470; the 500ETF (SZSE) rose 1.48% to close at 2.950; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.85% to close at 3.212; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.29% to close at 3.478; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.08% to close at 3025.18; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.92% to close at 1.42; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.95% to close at 1.38 [5]. - The PCR of trading volume and open interest for various options on December 24, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are presented in detail in the report, including the 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, SZSE 300ETF option, CSI 300 index option, CSI 1000 index option, SSE 500ETF option, SZSE 500ETF option, ChiNext ETF option, Shenzhen 100ETF option, SSE 50 index option, STAR 50ETF option, and E Fund STAR 50ETF option [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options are also provided, including the 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, SZSE 300ETF option, CSI 300 index option, CSI 1000 index option, SSE 500ETF option, SZSE 500ETF option, ChiNext ETF option, Shenzhen 100ETF option, SSE 50 index option, STAR 50ETF option, and E Fund STAR 50ETF option [7][8]. 3.2 Related Charts - The report presents a series of charts for different options, including the trend, volatility, PCR of trading volume, PCR of open interest, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility of the 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, SZSE 300ETF option, CSI 300 index option, CSI 1000 index option, SSE 500ETF option, SZSE 500ETF option, ChiNext ETF option, Shenzhen 100ETF option, SSE 50 index option, STAR 50ETF option, and E Fund STAR 50ETF option [9][22][35][49][62][75][88][101][113][126][140][151].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 24 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1746 元/吨，日内录得 0.20%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.87 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 552 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/ 吨，周环比持平。当前，焦炭维持供需两弱格局，基本面未明显改善，不 过下游冬储补库和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌，叠加 1 月后钢厂存复产 预期，关注后续下游补库和生产节奏。 焦煤：12 月 24 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1132 点，日内上涨 0.62%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.05 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-8652 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平。目 前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰 动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位反 ...

期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹供应低位企稳，而需求同样弱稳，淡季基本面未见好转，钢价仍易 承压，相对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预计螺纹延续低位震荡运行 态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 一 产业动态 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.09%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated around 95,000 yuan, with significant position - increasing and upward movement at the end of the session, breaking through the 96,000 - yuan mark. Macroscopically, after the December central bank resolutions of the US and Japan, liquidity increased, and the US dollar index continued to weaken, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the downstream was in a strong wait - and - see mood. The spot market had extremely weak buying in the morning, and due to year - end payment collection and capital pressure, sellers dumped a large amount of goods. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper to the SHFE 2601 contract dropped below a discount of 300 yuan/ton for the first time since late May 2024. In the short term, macro factors drove the copper price to rise with increased positions, and the industry followed passively, with strong upward momentum for the copper price [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly, with position - increasing and rising at the end of the session, approaching the December high. Macroscopically, after the December central bank resolutions of the US and Japan, liquidity increased, and the US dollar index continued to weaken, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the basis and monthly spread remained weak, and the industrial side had strong constraints. The aluminum price rose back to the previous high, and technical pressure should be noted [7]. - **Nickel**: Last night, the nickel price rose and then fell. The main contract price of Shanghai nickel once reached the 130,000 - yuan mark. Today, it maintained a fluctuating trend around 127,000 yuan. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar led to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the expectation of policy disturbances in Indonesia increased, driving the nickel price up; the strong spot premium supported the nickel price. In the context of macro - easing, there were again disturbances in industrial supply, and the short - term upward momentum was strong [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The copper price hit a new record high. Last night, Shanghai copper opened above 95,000 yuan/ton. The spot market had extremely weak buying in the morning. Due to year - end payment collection and capital pressure, sellers dumped a large amount of goods. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper to the SHFE 2601 contract dropped below a discount of 300 yuan/ton for the first time since late May 2024, and it is expected to continue to decline tomorrow [10]. - **Aluminum**: The chairman and general manager of India's National Aluminium Company (Nalco), Brijendra Pratap Singh, revealed that due to the dual effects of growing demand and limited supply, the aluminum price is expected to rise to about $3,000 per ton in the next fiscal year [11]. - **Nickel**: On December 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 126,400 - 134,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 130,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 4,950 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 6,500 - 7,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 6,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 400 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][43].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The Shanghai rubber futures market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to continue its range - bound consolidation in the short term [2][5]. 3) Summary by Related Points Supply - Side Situation - As of mid - December 2025, China's major natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan have entered the suspension season. In Yunnan, low temperatures are the main reason for the suspension, and raw material output is extremely scarce. In Hainan, the suspension process is slightly later and is now in the final stage [2]. - In 2025, from January to October, China's natural rubber production reached 72.28 million tons, a 7.88% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The domestic market has entered the inventory consumption stage, and future focus will shift to Southeast Asian producers [3]. Demand - Side Situation - In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 5.1% and 3.2%, and year - on - year increases of 2.8% and 3.4%. From January to November, production and sales reached 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles, with year - on - year increases of 11.9% and 11.4% [3][4]. - The heavy - truck market in 2025 recovered strongly. In November, sales were about 100,000 vehicles, a 46% increase compared to the same period last year. From January to November, cumulative sales reached 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [4]. - In 2025, the domestic tire market showed the characteristics of "stable total growth, structural optimization, and internal - external coordination". In November, the output of rubber tire casings was 101.828 million, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to November, the cumulative output was 1.103115 billion, a 0.6% year - on - year increase [4]. Inventory Situation - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao reached 515,200 tons, a weekly increase of 16,300 tons (3.28%). The inventory has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, reflecting the off - season demand characteristics [5].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 需求支撑不足，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-24 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：受困于国内甲醇供应压力不断增大，同时面对国内煤炭期货价格大幅回调的拖累，甲醇 期货反弹受阻，转而重新陷入回调走势。目前港口库存和内陆地区库存小幅回落，但依然处于高位。 同时下游需求改善不足，烯烃盘面利 ...