投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-09-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期乌克兰不间断袭击俄罗斯境内产油实施，俄罗斯称如有需要延长成品油出口禁令等。 另外美国总统特朗普表示将对俄罗斯进行强有力的关税制裁，显示近期西方国家及乌克兰主要目标 仍是通过各种方式来打击俄罗斯的石油出口。在地缘风险增强的背景下，原油期货价格阶段性走强。 本周三夜盘国内外原油期货价格呈现震荡偏强的走势。其中，国内原油期货 2511 合约小幅收涨 1.53% 至 489.7 元/桶，预计本周四国内原油期价或维持震荡偏强的走势。 | 品种 | 短期 | ...

说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 短期多头了结意愿上升，中长线 上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：本周沪金增仓上行明显，周内主力期价上涨近 30 元/克，触及 860 元关口，对应纽约金 触及 3800 美元，伦敦金站上 3750 美元。昨日美元指数持续反弹，金价高位小幅回落，短期多头了结 意愿上升。中长线上行趋势未改，短线沪金可关注 5 日均线支撑，纽约金可关注 3800 美元关口压力。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终 ...

一、 宏观数据速览 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-09-25 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.40 | 49.30 | 49.10 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.10 | 50.30 | | 20250915 | 2025/08 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 25668.00 11307.00 | 30323.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.70 | 11.80 | 12.20 | | 202509 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on September 25, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, spreads, and price ratios. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data from September 18 to September 24, 2025, shows that the basis on September 18 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, gradually increasing to - 95.4 yuan/ton on September 24. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy products, basis data from September 18 to September 24, 2025, and price ratio data of crude oil to asphalt are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 24 was 135.72 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: The basis data of chemical products such as rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 24 was - 820 yuan/ton. Also, spread and price ratio data for cross - period and cross - variety are given, like the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 24 was 2232 yuan/ton [9][11] Black Metals - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 60.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Cross - variety**: The cross - variety price ratios and spreads of black metals from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore price ratio on September 24 was 3.93, and the rebar - hot rolled coil spread was - 193.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on September 24 was 126.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on September 24 was 90 yuan/ton [28] - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London price ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals on September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was (31.37) [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 24 was 153 yuan/ton [38] - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of agricultural products are shown, such as the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 50 [38] - **Cross - variety**: The cross - variety price ratios and spreads of agricultural products from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal price ratio on September 24 was 2.77 [38] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 24 was 36.07 [49] - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of stock index futures are shown, such as the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 18.4 [49]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 目前期权隐含波动率有所回落，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以继续持 有牛市价差或比例价差。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 股市成交缩量，股指全面反弹 核心观点 今日各股指全面上涨，其中中证 500 与中证 1000 涨幅居前。沪深京三 市全天成交额 23471 亿元，较上日缩量 1713 亿元。不过本次反弹伴随的是 股市成交金额缩量，以及股指期货持仓量减仓，这意味着投资者对后市的看 法仍存分歧。目前股市的主要交易逻辑来自于政策预期以及资金流向这两 方面，后市需要重点关注资金止盈节奏与政策预期发酵的博弈情况。一方面 随着估值端显著上升，特别是指数反弹至前期高点附近，获利资金止盈需求 上升，投资者落袋为安的想法有所升温；另一方面，政策利好预期与资金面 长期净流入趋势构成驱动股指上行的中长期动力。目前政策利好预期的发 酵有待 10 月重磅会议的召开，增量资金方面从融资余额突破 2.4 万亿 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡运行，主力期价围绕 8 万关口震荡，振幅收窄，持 仓量变化不大。宏观层面，国内氛围较好，股指呈现上行，商品涨 多跌少，铜价表现乏力。产业层面，下游节前补库意愿较强，给予 铜价支撑。技术上，关注 8 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价震荡上行，持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面，国内氛围较 好，商品涨多跌少，铝价企稳回升。产业层面，随着期价下挫，下游 补库意愿上升，电解铝社库累库放缓。技术上，关注 60 日均线 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 今日国债期货均震荡下跌。由于短期内政策利率下降的可能性不高，降 息预期消退，支撑国债期货向上的动能较为疲弱。不过中长期来看，目前国 内内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，海外美联储启动降息令人民币汇率端压 力大大减小，未来货币政策偏宽松的可能性较高。总的来说，预计短期内国 债期货以低位震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 国债期货低位震荡 核心观点 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 国债期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising on Wednesday. After the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, the rubber market may be dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, and the contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, strengthening in oscillation, and slightly rising on Wednesday. Constrained by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, the contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, rising in oscillation, and slightly increasing on Wednesday. Due to geopolitical risks such as Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and potential US tariffs on Russia, the contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation's China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. In the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8132 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 30,200 tons [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58% [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 487,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 340,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 94,200 tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 2.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [13]. - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 98,709 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a 19.13% decrease from the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 220,410 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and an 8.94% increase from the August average [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,650 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | - 950 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,358 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | - 88 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 454.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 484.3 yuan/barrel | +11.2 yuan/barrel | - 29.7 yuan/barrel | - 11.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report mentions a chart of rubber basis, but no specific analysis is provided [16]. - Methanol: The report mentions relevant charts but no specific analysis is provided [28]. - Crude Oil: The report mentions relevant charts but no specific analysis is provided [41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 市场情绪弱稳，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.03%日涨幅，量缩仓稳。现阶段， 供弱需增局面下螺纹钢基本面短暂好转，但下游未见改善，需求担忧未 退，继续承压钢价，相对利好的是成本抬升，多空因素博弈下节前钢价 延续震荡运行态势，关注持仓变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.24%日涨幅，量缩仓稳。目前来 看，热卷需求韧性趋弱，而供应维持高位，供需格局有所走弱，库存再 度增加，卷价继续承压，相对利好则是成本抬升，预计后续走势震荡偏 弱运行，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段，矿 石需求表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但需求利好在趋弱，而供应压力迎来 回升，基本面并无实质性好转，高估值矿价上行驱动不强，节前走势延 续高位震荡为主，谨防产业矛盾激化。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦窄幅震荡 核心观点 焦炭：9 月 24 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1730 元/吨，日内录得 1.14%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.50 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+113 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1440 元/吨，周环比 下跌 4.00%。供需方面，截至 9 月 19 日当周，样本焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日 均产量合计 113.37 万吨，周 ...