Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Gold is expected to show a long - term strong upward trend, with short - term shocks, medium - term strength, and intraday shocks tending to be strong. The reasons are the cooling macro - atmosphere, increased short - term hedging demand, and the resonance of short - term geopolitical risks, concerns about the Fed's independence, and long - term structural factors. The sharp rise in silver also drives gold up, and the decline in the gold - silver ratio will prompt arbitrage funds to flow into gold [1][3] - Copper is expected to have a long - term strong trend, with short - term shocks, medium - term strength, and intraday shocks tending to be weak. The cooling macro - atmosphere, increased willingness of short - term bulls to close positions, weakened short - term capital promotion willingness, and the resistance of the short - term spot market to high copper prices are the main reasons [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term: Shock [1] - Medium - term: Strong [1] - Intraday: Shock tending to be strong [1] - Reference view: Long - term strong upward [1] - Core logic: The rise in gold prices is due to the resonance of short - term geopolitical risks, concerns about the Fed's independence, and long - term structural factors. The sharp rise in silver drives gold, and the decline in the gold - silver ratio to around 50 (a 14 - year low) will attract arbitrage funds. Pay attention to the long - short game at the $4600 mark [3] Copper - Short - term: Shock [1] - Medium - term: Strong [1] - Intraday: Shock tending to be weak [1] - Reference view: Long - term strong [1] - Core logic: Copper prices showed a small upward and then downward trend last night, oscillating below 104,000. The increase of copper prices has slowed down this week, and short - term capital promotion willingness is insufficient. The obvious weakening of the 01 contract discount reflects the resistance of the short - term spot market to high copper prices. Pay attention to the technical pressure at the previous high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to operate weakly with a volatile trend in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weak performance intraday [1][5][7] Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall: weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks has disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex. Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weakly volatile trend on Wednesday night and are expected to continue this way on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall: weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight supply of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen sharply. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to reduced production or shutdown of some devices, decreasing the supply expectation. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Crude oil futures maintain a strongly volatile pattern, strengthening the cost support. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, the rebound momentum of domestic synthetic rubber futures weakened on Wednesday night and is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report expects the stock index to operate in a volatile and moderately strong manner in the short term. The short - term view is that the market sentiment remains optimistic due to the continuous increase in trading volume, and the short - term correction will not change the moderately strong trend of the stock index, though intraday fluctuations may intensify. In the medium and long term, with the continuous fermentation of positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market, the logic of the upward movement of the stock index is relatively solid [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", the intraday view is "moderately strong", and the overall view is "volatile and moderately strong". The core logic is the unchanged positive policy expectations and the trend of capital net inflow [1]. 2. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "moderately strong", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the reference view is "volatile and moderately strong". Yesterday, all stock indexes rose and then fell, with the whole - market trading volume reaching 398.68 billion yuan, an increase of 28.8 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The regulatory authorities raised the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, showing a clear intention to reduce leverage and control risks. Due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks this year and the weak expectation of performance repair, the market risk preference declined in the afternoon yesterday, leading to a high - level correction of the stock index. However, the continuous increase in trading volume indicates that market sentiment remains optimistic [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall situation of the beans and oils market in the short - term is weak, with the prices of various varieties showing a trend of weak shocks. The beans market is under the pressure of weak reality and policy uncertainty, lacking upward driving forces. The palm oil market also lacks a one - sided driving force and continues to fluctuate [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating weakly; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The export prospects of US soybeans are weak, and the crop weather in Brazil is ideal. The USDA report is neutral to bearish, putting pressure on US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans is abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is at a high level in the same period, restricting the rise of spot prices. The rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to policy - related factors. Overall, the beans market is under continuous pressure of weak reality, and there is policy uncertainty, lacking upward driving forces [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating weakly; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Indonesia confirmed that it will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026, maintaining B40, which weakens the previous market expectations and causes the price to correct from the high level, but the decline is limited. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil to 12.5% starting from March next year, which may support the export of Malaysian palm oil. The market's focus has shifted to the US biodiesel policy. In the short - term, palm oil lacks a one - sided driving force and continues to fluctuate [7]. 3.3 Other Varieties - **Soybean Oil 2605**: Short - term, medium - term and intraday views are all oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include the cost support of US soybeans, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2605**: Short - term, medium - term and intraday views are all oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The demand has a phased decline, and the port coal price has stabilized again. The overall supply - demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the price has stopped falling and risen slightly [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are "oscillation" [1] 3.2 Price Driving Logic - In the first week of 2026, the domestic thermal coal price maintained a slight upward trend. After the new year, the coal mines that had stopped production to meet the annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in production was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply has increased. The recent drop in domestic temperatures has accelerated the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities, which is an important factor supporting the port coal market [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of January 8, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 支撑 | 基本面未好转，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, all stock indices reached high points and then declined, with the market oscillating throughout the day. The total market trading volume was 398.68 billion yuan, an increase of 28.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The regulators' policy intention to reduce leverage and control risks is clear. Coupled with the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks this year and the weak expectation of performance recovery, the market's risk appetite declined in the afternoon, leading to a high - level correction of the stock indices. However, considering the continuous expansion of trading volume, the market sentiment remains optimistic. The short - term correction will not change the strong trend of the stock indices, but the intraday volatility may intensify. With the continuous fermentation of positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market, the logic of the medium - to - long - term upward movement of the stock indices is relatively solid. It is expected that the stock indices will oscillate strongly in the short term. For options, a bull - spread strategy can be adopted due to the reliable medium - to - long - term upward logic of the stock indices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - On January 14, 2026, the 50ETF dropped 0.84% to close at 3.187; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) dropped 0.61% to close at 4.866; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) dropped 0.54% to close at 4.945; the CSI 300 Index dropped 0.40% to close at 4741.93; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.66% to close at 8257.17; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.71% to close at 8.365; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.95% to close at 3.302; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.79% to close at 3.332; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.11% to close at 3.516; the SSE 50 Index dropped 0.67% to close at 3112.07; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 1.94% to close at 1.58; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 2.07% to close at 1.53 [6] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of the SSE 50ETF option was 76.63 (previous day: 56.98), and the position PCR was 92.61 (previous day: 97.67) [7] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For instance, the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the SSE 50ETF option in January 2026 was 15.73%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 11.84% [8] 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Option**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [10][12][14][16][18] - **SSE 300ETF Option**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [21][23][28][32] - **SZSE 300ETF Option**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [24][26][28][32] - **CSI 300 Index Option**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [36][38][41][47] - **CSI 1000 Index Option**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [39][45][41][47] - **SSE 500ETF Option**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [52][58][54][60] - **SZSE 500ETF Option**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [65][71][67][73] - **ChiNext ETF Option**: Charts cover the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [78][88][80][84] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Option**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [89][95][91][97] - **SSE 50 Index Option**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [102][108][104][110] - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Charts cover the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [115][124][117][121] - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Charts involve the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [125][131][127][137]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, surging then giving back gains, and stabilizing with a slight upward shift in the intraday price center to around 16,160 yuan/ton. The contract closed with a 0.53% increase at 16,160 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is currently driven by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and closing with a slight increase. The price reached a high of 2,310 yuan/ton and a low of 2,263 yuan/ton, closing 1.15% higher at 2,288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 0 yuan/ton. With differences between bulls and bears emerging, methanol futures maintained a stable and volatile trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, being moderately bullish and volatile, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a high of 454.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 444.4 yuan/barrel, closing 1.96% higher at 448.0 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical factors have become prominent again, overriding the weak supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term oil prices are expected to maintain a moderately bullish pattern [6]. 3. Summaries by Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons (4.48%). As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. In December 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The LPI in December 2025 was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high of 1.137 million vehicles in the past four years, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, a month - on - month increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0424 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.30%, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%; the acetic acid operating rate was 81.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.28%; the MTBE operating rate was 58.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.17%. As of January 9, 2026, the futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 264 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.1593 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons [10][11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 2, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.811 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day. As of the week of January 2, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 419 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.832 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.414 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.84 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 728,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 413.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 245,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 percentage points. As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 57,352 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 7,239 contracts and a 2.41% decrease from the December average. As of January 6, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 120,686 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 6,220 contracts and a 14.44% increase from the December average [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 16,160 yuan/ton | +185 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,280 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | 2,288 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 417.2 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 448.0 yuan/barrel | +1.3 yuan/barrel | - 30.8 yuan/barrel | - 1.2 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and operating rate charts, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [17][30][42].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the price of lithium carbonate is weakening. The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate, along with related indicators such as basis, registered warehouse receipts, and supply - demand relationships, are analyzed [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - Futures market: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 161,940 yuan/ton, down 5,040 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Spot market: The spot price of lithium carbonate was 163,050 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Basis analysis: The current basis was - 2,330 points (spot discount), 5,910 points stronger than the previous day, with the basis fluctuating in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate was 27,158 lots, an increase of 260 lots (+0.97%) from the previous day, showing an overall increase in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Supply - demand relationship: Some domestic lithium salt production lines are undergoing seasonal maintenance [5]. 3.2 Industry Dynamics - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 161,940 yuan/ton, down 5,040 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 19,640 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the settlement price was 165,380 yuan/ton, down 2,480 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 23,860 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium spodumene: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrates, as well as South African CIF China lithium spodumene ore, have different price ranges and changes compared with the previous day and 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium mica: The prices of lithium mica with different Li2O contents in the Chinese market have increased compared with the previous day and 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate was 163,050 yuan/ton, up 3,430 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 29,520 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 154,120 yuan/ton, up 3,560 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 30,060 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. - Ternary materials and related products: The prices of some ternary precursors and materials have changed to varying degrees compared with 5 trading days ago, while some prices remained unchanged compared with the previous day [7]. - Downstream products: The price of cobalt acid lithium (≥60%, domestic) was 396,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 11,500 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 25,000 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. 3.3 Related Charts - Ore and lithium prices: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and lithium hydroxide - lithium carbonate price difference [9]. - Cathode & ternary materials: There are charts showing the prices of manganese acid lithium, domestic iron phosphate lithium, domestic cobalt acid lithium (≥60%), ternary precursors, and ternary materials [12]. - Other related data of lithium carbonate futures: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of the lithium carbonate main contract [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume, with the open interest rising to 700,000 contracts during the session. The main contract price broke through the previous high during the session but fell back in the afternoon. As the delivery approaches, the discount of the 01 contract has weakened significantly, reflecting a decline in short - term spot market purchasing willingness. Although silver has been rising continuously in the short term, the upward movement of copper prices has slowed down significantly, with insufficient capital - driven willingness. The futures price may fluctuate and wait for industrial follow - up [6]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell today. The main contract price approached the 25,000 - yuan mark during the session and dropped significantly with reduced positions in the afternoon. The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, and the willingness of long - position holders to close positions is strong. As the aluminum price has reached the 24,000 - yuan mark, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has increased significantly. Technically, it once broke through the 2021 high during the session but then fell back, and the reference for the resistance level remains valid [7]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rose and then fell today, with the open interest continuously decreasing. In the afternoon, the macro - atmosphere cooled, and most non - ferrous metals declined. Nickel has accumulated a gain of over 30% since its low in late December, and the short - term willingness of long - position holders to close positions is strong. The short - term amplitude of nickel prices has narrowed significantly, and the willingness of long - position holders to continue pushing up is insufficient. Industrially, the electrolytic nickel inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME have continued to rise, and the weak industrial reality pattern remains unchanged. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 140,000 - yuan mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The copper price maintained a strong trend during the session, but the refined copper rod industry had a dull transaction, with weak orders. Downstream buyers were cautious and mostly held a wait - and - see attitude, mainly making purchases based on rigid demand. As tomorrow is the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2601 contract, due to the continuous widening of the monthly spread, sellers have reduced their willingness to sell, and it is expected that the spot premium or discount to the current - month contract will remain strong tomorrow [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 14, 2026, it was reported that the aluminum ingot premium at major Japanese ports (MJP) in the first quarter of 2026 was $195 per ton, up $109 per ton from $86 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2025, a rise of 126.7% [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][16]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, overseas electrolytic aluminum exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel price trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].