Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short-term, the price is expected to continue oscillating, with increased volatility [11][12] - US Dollar Index: The dollar is expected to remain range-bound in the short term [15][16] - US Stock Index Futures: The market is expected to experience greater short-term volatility but should be treated with a generally bullish outlook [18][19] - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions across various stock indices [20][22] - Power Coal: The overall coal price is expected to remain high and oscillate, with a seasonal decline from December to January [23] - Iron Ore: By the end of the year, molten iron output is expected to be around 2.31 million tons, and port inventories are expected to increase by approximately 10 million tons. The downward trend may not be smooth [24] - Coking Coal/Coke: In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate as downstream restocking slows, and the spot market remains weak [25][26] - Live Pigs: Near-term contracts are recommended for shorting on rebounds, while long-term contracts can be considered for long positions on dips [27] - Rebar/Hot-Rolled Coils: Steel prices are expected to oscillate slightly higher in the short term but should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [28][29] - Corn Starch: It is recommended to operate around the current processing fee in North China (310 yuan/ton) [30][31] - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil: Palm oil lacks a continuous upward driver. As it enters the production reduction season, its downside support is expected to gradually strengthen [33][34] - Corn: It is not recommended to short the 01 contract. Consider shorting the 03 contract on rallies with a light position. Pay attention to the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads [34][35] - Polysilicon: Spot prices are expected to remain flat month-on-month. Short-term volatility is expected to increase, so investors are advised to operate with caution [37][38] - Industrial Silicon: The short-term price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to trading opportunities within this range [39][40] - Lead: Consider long positions on dips for the medium term. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [41][42] - Zinc: Observe opportunities to buy on dips. Hold long positions in the calendar spread. Wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [43][44] - Copper: The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [46][47] - Nickel: Lightly consider long positions on dips. Mid - term evaluation of resource contraction in Indonesia is still needed [48][49] - Lithium Carbonate: In the short term, consider shorting on rallies. In the medium term, consider long positions after the risk of the off - season decline is released [50][51] - Tin: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate in the short term. Consider buying on dips but avoid chasing high prices [52][53] - Crude Oil: The price is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [56][57] - Carbon Emissions: The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [58][59] - Methanol: It is not recommended to short. For now, it is advisable to wait and see for single - sided trading and consider positive calendar spreads [60][63] - Container Freight Rates: The short - term market is expected to oscillate. Consider lightly going long on the 02 contract [64][65] Core Views - Trump plans to announce the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair in early 2026, strongly hinting at Kevin Hassett. This has affected market expectations for future monetary policy and asset prices [3][11][15] - Geopolitical events such as Trump's potential military action against drug - trafficking groups in Venezuela and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict have influenced market risk appetite and the performance of various assets [2][14][15] - In the commodity market, supply and demand dynamics, production, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices. For example, the supply of some metals and energy products has changed, and the demand for agricultural products has also shown different trends [4][5][23] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump will announce the Fed Chair nominee in early 2026. Gold prices have fallen from their highs and are consolidating. The expected loose monetary policy supports gold, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations add market uncertainty [11] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump may expand the entry ban to about 30 countries and is likely to launch a ground attack on drug - trafficking groups in Venezuela. The US dollar index is expected to remain range - bound [13][14][15] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump's indication of the Fed Chair nominee has increased market expectations for loose liquidity, boosting the technology sector and the overall index, but most sectors still declined [17][18] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The OECD predicts global economic growth rates of 3.2% and 2.9% for this year and next year. A - shares are adjusting with reduced trading volume in anticipation of policy changes [20][21] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Power Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie power coal prices are weak. After the end of restocking, coal prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, with a seasonal decline from December to January [23] 2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project has been successfully sent. Iron ore prices are oscillating, with weakening fundamentals but a not - so - smooth downward trend [24] 2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Coking coal prices in the Changzhi market are weak. After the first round of coke price cuts, the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25][26] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The market shows a pattern of "stable futures, weak spot." Near - term contracts are under pressure, while long - term contracts can be considered for long positions on dips [26][27] 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coils) - November's heavy - truck sales increased nearly 50% year - on - year. Steel prices are oscillating slightly higher, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the upside [28][29] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch prices are relatively stable. The price difference between cassava starch and corn starch has widened, and the supply pressure of corn starch is expected to remain low [30] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. The supply pressure of oils has slightly eased, and palm oil lacks a continuous upward driver [32][33][34] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn spot prices are rising. The 01 contract is not recommended for shorting, while the 03 contract can be considered for shorting on rallies [34][35] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A new type of high - efficiency TOPCon battery has been launched. The polysilicon market is facing supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to remain flat with increased short - term volatility [36][37][38] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of 97 - grade silicon has increased, and orders are stable. The industrial silicon market is difficult to destock, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [39][40] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is stable, and the domestic lead market is oscillating. The supply may tighten, and the demand is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [41][42] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market is oscillating widely. The domestic zinc market has a reduced supply and weak demand. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold long positions in the calendar spread [43][44] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A new copper smelter is expected to be put into operation, and the copper powder industry is in a boom cycle. Copper prices are affected by macro - expectations and are expected to oscillate [45][46][47] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nickel inventories have increased. The supply - demand surplus has been slightly repaired, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [48][49] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Kodal has shipped the first batch of lithium spodumene concentrate to China. The supply may increase after the resumption of production, and the demand in the off - season is weakening [50][51] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - Storage chip prices are rising. Tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, and it is recommended to buy on dips [52][53] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventories have increased. Oil prices are affected by the Russia - Ukraine situation and supply concerns and are expected to remain range - bound [54][56][57] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is oscillating. The impact of the quota policy may be more emotional than substantial [58][59] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The discount on Iranian imported methanol has decreased. The short - term futures price is difficult to fall, and positive calendar spreads can be considered [60][61][63] 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The port throughput has increased. The container freight rate market is expected to oscillate, and the 02 contract can be considered for long positions [64][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The European route shipping market shows mixed trends in terms of loading rates, capacity, and schedule delays. Loading rates vary by departure location and alliance, capacity is expected to improve in some periods, and schedule delays are a notable factor with specific ships and weeks affected [7][10][16] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. European Line Loading Rate Tracking - W48 European line fleet's average loading rate from Chinese ports was 92.6%, a slight 0.6% decrease from the previous period. W47's loading rate from Asian ports was 99.7%, a 1.2% increase. The loading difference between Asia and China widened to 6.5% [7] - Among different alliances, OA's Chinese departure loading rate was 92.2%, down 1.5% from the previous period; PA and MSC's was 95.9%, up 0.8%, and their Asian departure loading rate in W47 rose to 100.7%; Gemini's Chinese departure loading rate was 89.7%, up 0.9%, and its Asian departure loading rate in W47 reached 98.6% [7] 2. European Line Ship Schedule and Capacity - In January, the monthly average weekly capacity was 31.3 million TEU, and with full TBN ship arrangement, the weekly average capacity would reach a high of 32.3 million TEU, slightly higher than the same period last year [10] - In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 30.8 million TEU, slightly higher than last year's 30.5 million TEU. The supply in the second half - month was about 30.5 million TEU, slightly less than the first half - month [12] 3. Ship Schedule Delays and Spot Overview - In W48, 3 sailings were delayed to W49, including 1 from Gemini, 0 from OA, and 2 from MSC and PA. The SCFIS (European line) index closed at 1483.65 points, a 9.5% decrease from the previous period. The actual departure capacity from Shanghai Port in W48 was 29.19 million TEU, with 26% from W47 delayed sailings. The weights of Gemini, OA, and PA + MSC were 22%, 42%, and 37% respectively [16] 4. Ship Schedule Delay Observation and Early Warning - Multiple ships from different alliances were delayed in different weeks. For example, in W48, Gemini's AE5: MUNICH MAERSK was delayed 4 days to W48; OA's FAL7: CSCL VENUS was delayed 1 day to W48; MSC&PA's FE6: MSC OLBIA was delayed 3 days to W48 and FE4: HMM STOCKHOLM was delayed 1 day to W48 [22] - Early warnings were issued for different alliances in different weeks. For instance, in W48, Gemini had an early warning for AE1, OA for FAL7, and MSC&PA for FE4 [26] 5. Related Port Congestion Data - In China, Yangshan Port's average turnover time was about 1.4 days, Ningbo Port about 2.2 days, and Yantian Port about 1.4 days. The overall operation of Chinese ports was good, but potential disturbances from increased peak - season cargo volume and winter fog were to be noted [35] - In Southeast Asia, port congestion worsened compared to the previous period. The average time of ships in Singapore Port was 1.4 days and in Port Klang was 1.5 days [35] - In Europe, after a brief strike in Belgium, operations had resumed, but the risk of strikes remained. French ports were expected to strike this week. The average time of ships in Antwerp Port was about 1.8 days, Rotterdam 2.1 days, Hamburg Port 3.4 days, and Bremen was not fully described [35]

Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Critical Hub Monitoring 20251202 [1] - Research Institute: Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute [1] - Department: Black and Shipping [1] - Analyst: Lan Xi [1] - Qualification Number: F03086543 [1] - Investment Consultation Number: Z0016590 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Chinese ports are operating well, but attention should be paid to the potential impact of increased cargo volume during peak seasons and winter fog on ports [2]. - Port congestion in Southeast Asia has intensified compared to the previous period [2]. - European ports have a lingering threat of strikes, and French ports are expected to hold a strike this week [2]. - North American ports are operating in good condition [2]. Summary by Directory Data Review - **Asian Ports**: Yangshan Port, Waigaoqiao Port, Ningbo Port, Qingdao Port, Singapore Port, and Port Klang have different average waiting times, berthing times, and the number of container ships at anchor and berthing. The average turnover time of Yangshan Port is about 1.4 days, Ningbo Port is about 2.2 days, and Yantian Port is about 1.4 days. The average time of ships in port in Singapore is 1.4 days, and in Port Klang is 2.2 days [2]. - **European Ports**: Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremen, and Valencia have different average waiting times, berthing times, and the number of container ships at anchor and berthing. After a brief strike in Belgium last week, operations have officially resumed, but the threat of strikes in Europe remains. The average time of ships in port in Antwerp is about 1.8 days, Rotterdam is 2.1 days, Hamburg is 3.4 days, and Bremen is 1.5 days [2]. - **North American Ports**: Long Beach, Los Angeles, Tacoma, New York, Savannah, Norfolk, and Houston have different average waiting times, berthing times, and the number of container ships at anchor and berthing. North American ports are operating well [2]. Data Overview - The report provides the latest, month - on - month, year - on - year, monthly average, and the same period last year data of the time of key container ports in port, including Yangshan, Ningbo, Singapore, Port Klang, etc. [6] Asian Port Dynamic Tracking - The report shows the scale of container ships in port in China and Southeast Asia, and the number of container ships at anchor and berthing in some ports in Southeast Asia and China over time [9][12][15] - It also presents the average time of container ships in port, waiting time, and berthing time in Southeast Asia and China [19] European Port Dynamic Tracking - The report shows the scale of container ships in port in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean/Black Sea, and the number of container ships at anchor and berthing in some ports in Northwest Europe and Valencia over time [22][25][26] - It also presents the average time of container ships in port, waiting time, and berthing time in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean [29][37] North American Port Dynamic Tracking - The report shows the scale of container ships in port in North America East and West, and the number of container ships at anchor and berthing in Los Angeles & Long Beach and New York over time [41][46][48] - It also presents the average time of container ships in port, waiting time, and berthing time in the United States [43] Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - The report shows the arrival situation of large - scale container ships at Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port, and the arrival situation of 1.2w+ container ships of different alliances in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean [50][53][57] - It also presents the passage situation of container ships at the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal [55]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted, with a reading of 48.2, falling short of market expectations and remaining in the contraction zone for the ninth consecutive month. This has implications for the US economy and various financial and commodity markets [12][16][20]. - The expectation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest - rate hike has increased, affecting market risk appetite, causing stocks and commodities to retreat after an initial rise, and keeping the short - term gold price within a volatile range [2][13]. - In the commodity market, different products show different trends. For example, steel prices are oscillating stronger, copper prices are expected to continue to rise in an oscillating manner, and PTA is in a tight - balance state at the end of the year [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, worse than expected and in contraction for nine consecutive months. The BOJ governor's hawkish remarks boosted the expectation of a December rate hike, causing stocks and commodities to fall back. Short - term gold prices are still in a volatile range [12][13]. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price trends are volatile, with increased fluctuations. Be aware of correction risks [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is closely monitoring the commercial real estate exposure of community and regional banks. The US factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in four months, with the manufacturing index dropping to 48.2 [15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to continue to decline in the short term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The BOJ governor signaled a clear interest - rate hike, leading to a rise in Japanese government bond yields and a squeeze on the profit margin of yen carry trades. The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted, indicating weak manufacturing performance [19][20]. - Investment advice: The market will experience increased short - term volatility, but maintain a generally bullish outlook [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The approval of public - offering fund products has started a counter - cyclical adjustment mechanism. A - shares had a good start in December, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.31% [22][23]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices [24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. The bond market had a weak rebound, but there is no basis for continuous strengthening [25][26]. - Investment advice: There may be short - term repairs, but the market remains bearish [27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In November 2025, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.0175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.24%. The soybean meal inventory reached 1.2032 million tons, the highest in the same period in history. The future weather and South American production expectations are important variables [28][29]. - Investment advice: Cost support and supply - demand constraints coexist. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile. Continue to monitor China's actual purchases of US soybeans, state reserve trends, and South American weather [29]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in November increased by 4.78% year - on - year, indicating that the domestic construction machinery market is in a recovery phase. Tangshan had illegal steel projects, and steel prices are expected to continue to rise slightly in an oscillating manner, but the upside space is limited [30][31][32]. - Investment advice: In the short term, steel prices are expected to rise slightly and remain volatile [33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports in November decreased by 19.68% month - on - month, and production decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. Heavy rain affected the palm oil harvest, and the market expects November to continue to accumulate inventory [34][35]. - Investment advice: Palm oil is expected to remain in the range of 8,500 - 8,700 yuan, waiting for data guidance [36]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the central - southern market remained stable. The supply is gradually recovering, but the recovery is slow. The demand is weakening, with iron - water production continuing to decline [37]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the market will be mainly volatile [37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on December 1, 2025, were 30 yuan/ton, - 43 yuan/ton, 97 yuan/ton, and - 6 yuan/ton respectively. The demand for corn starch has recovered, and the supply pressure is expected to remain low [38]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy for the rice - flour price difference [39]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On December 1, the domestic corn average price was 2,292 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton. The spot market is strong, while the futures market is falling back. The 01 contract is not suitable for short - selling, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities for the 03 contract [40][41]. - Investment advice: Do not short the 01 contract. Consider short - selling the 03 contract on rallies with a light position. Pay attention to the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads [41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company signed an iron - ore purchase contract with Trafigura. The iron - ore price remains high and volatile, with the inventory expected to increase by 10 million tons to 160 million tons in December [42]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile, with limited upside potential [42]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - South Africa's coal exports in October were 7.2052 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.18%. After the replenishment, the steam - coal price has fallen back, and it is expected to remain high and volatile in December - January [43]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain high and volatile and decline seasonally from December to January [43]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin and trading limit for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract. The polysilicon supply - demand contradiction has worsened, and the battery - sheet price has continued to fall [44][45][46]. - Investment advice: The futures price may fall significantly, but the spot price is expected to remain flat. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A company plans to build 28 33MVA submerged - arc furnaces. The industrial silicon inventory is increasing, and the market is expected to be volatile between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [47][49]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to be volatile between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Look for range - trading opportunities [49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Minmetals Resources' Izok Corridor project exploration made progress, and a copper smelter in Kamoa - Kakula was ignited. The macro - level support may weaken, but the domestic inventory reduction boosts bullish sentiment [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to continue to rise in an oscillating manner. Recommend buying on dips. Pay attention to the widening of the C - L spread [52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A 60,000 - ton power - battery recycling project in Yichang was launched. The production of lithium carbonate decreased last week, and the demand in the off - season may weaken. The inventory reduction rate is expected to slow down in December [53][54]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling on rallies in the short term and buying on dips after the off - season risks are released [54]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the social lead inventory reached a one - month low. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented. The lead price is expected to rise, and consider buying on dips [55][56][57]. - Investment advice: Consider buying lead on dips in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and cross - border trades [57]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory increased. A zinc - lead mine in Bejaia is planned to start production. The zinc price is expected to be bullish, but there are risks of low market attention and macro - level fluctuations [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: Look for buying opportunities on dips. Hold long positions in the calendar spread. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for cross - border trades [60]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Qingmeibang nickel project's production is normal in December. The refined nickel supply is expected to be in surplus, but the market is undervalued. Consider buying on dips [61][62]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips with a light position. Evaluate the impact of Indonesian resource contraction in the medium term [62]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin showed a premium. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. The overseas supply may be affected by geopolitical risks, and the downstream demand is weak [63]. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. Consider buying on dips but avoid chasing the market [63]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and the cost is supported by geopolitical factors. Pay attention to the winter - storage policy [64][65]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short term [66]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound - fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased to 37.06%. The urea futures price rebounded, and the inventory decreased. The demand is the key factor for the future price [66][67]. - Investment advice: The reduction of urea inventory strengthens the support for the futures price. Pay attention to the macro - level driving force after December [68]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure - benzene inventory in East China increased. The styrene and pure - benzene prices are oscillating. The demand is weak, but there are expectations of supply reduction. Pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [69][71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the implementation of pure - benzene maintenance plans. Consider buying far - month contracts on dips if there is a panic sell - off in December [72]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price increased, and the market negotiation was light. The supply decreased due to plant maintenance, and the demand remained stable. The year - end supply - demand is in a tight - balance state [73]. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - term strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to the crude - oil price risk. Consider long positions in the PTA 5 - 9 spread and PTA - oil spread [74]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda price in Shandong decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The downstream alumina market has a negative impact on caustic - soda demand [75][76]. - Investment advice: The caustic - soda market will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to whether profit compression will lead to supply reduction [76]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle - chip factory export prices increased. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is high. The price follows the polyester raw - material price [77][78]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the short term. The price follows the polyester raw - material price [78]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash factory inventory decreased slightly. The Far Xing Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the supply. The demand from the float - glass industry has decreased [79][80]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish view on soda ash in the medium term. Consider shorting far - month contracts on rallies [80]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in Hubei increased slightly. The futures price decreased, and the inventory is still high. The short - term rebound space is limited [81]. - Investment advice: Be cautious and wait - and - see. Adopt a bearish view in the medium term and consider shorting on rallies [81]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The acquisition of a Spanish terminal by Hutchison Ports is blocked. The container freight rate is expected to be volatile, and there is a lack of strong bullish factors [82][83]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints The overall market presents structural opportunities. It is recommended to combine technical signals with position management to seize the operation opportunities when each variety corrects or breaks through. Different sectors and varieties show different trends, including bullish, bearish, and sideways signals [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector is mainly in a sideways trend, with no obvious price signals. In the non-ferrous sector, copper, aluminum alloy, aluminum, zinc, industrial silicon, and polysilicon show bullish signals, while alumina shows a bearish signal, and the rest of the varieties are mainly in a sideways trend [9]. - For Shanghai copper CU2601, the price has been rising this week. On the weekly level, it is above the key support range after breaking through the triangular consolidation, with a bullish moving average arrangement, but it faces strong resistance in the 89,000 - 90,500 yuan/ton range. On the daily level, the MACD shows a "golden cross" signal, and there is still room for an upward trend before a clear top signal appears [11]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - According to the technical indicator ratings, rebar shows a bullish signal, while coke and manganese silicon show bearish signals. European Line Container Shipping shows no signal and is mainly in a sideways trend, and the rest of the black series varieties are mainly in a sideways trend [19]. - For rebar RB2601, the price has risen significantly this week. The weekly line shows no long - term upward signal, but it is gradually stabilizing. The daily line shows that the price has the possibility of breaking through the original downward channel. If the price rises with the expansion of the Bollinger Bandwidth, there is still some upward space, and the upper resistance range is around 3,200 - 3,250 yuan/ton [24]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal in technical indicators, and the rest of the varieties are mainly in a sideways trend. In the chemical sector, PTA, p - xylene, propylene, etc. show bullish signals, while caustic soda shows a bearish signal, and the rest of the varieties are mainly in a sideways trend [29]. - For methanol 2601, the price has been rising this week, but the Bollinger Bandwidth is narrowing, and the MACD signal is weakening. The price may face a callback risk after rising, and long - position investors need to pay attention to position management [33]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - According to the technical indicator signals, soybeans, rapeseeds, and peanuts in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, while soybean oil, apples, rapeseed meal, etc. show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly in a sideways trend [39]. - For sugar SR601, the price has been rising this week, but the price center has decreased compared with last week. The weekly line shows a new low, and the OBV shows high - level sideways movement. The daily line shows that the rebound strength is insufficient. It is recommended to pay attention to subsequent price fluctuations and consider a long - position strategy at low prices when the moving average system shows more bullish arrangements and the MACD forms a golden cross [44]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - According to the technical indicator signals, the four major indexes all show sideways signals, with no obvious signal guidance [50]. - For the IC CSI 500 futures, the weekly line shows a slight rebound, but the rebound space next week may be limited. The daily line shows that the price is below the MA60 moving average, with weak upward momentum, and short - term price fluctuations are under pressure. Attention should be paid to position management [54]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - According to the technical indicator signals, the 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures are mainly in a sideways trend, while the 2 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds show bearish signals [56]. - For the T 10 - year treasury bond futures, the price has fallen significantly this week. The weekly line shows a long - negative line breaking through the MA60 moving average, and there may be new short - position pressure. The daily line shows obvious short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the linkage between the price and the Bollinger Band, and position management should be carried out [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, likely Kevin Hassett, which is expected to increase market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar [2][13]. - After a sharp decline, the odds of the bond market have improved, but there is a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise [3][23]. - Due to floods in palm oil - producing areas, the supply pressure is expected to ease, and palm oil prices may rebound [4][25]. - CSPT's decision to cut copper production in 2026 and other factors are expected to drive copper prices to continue to rise [4][45]. - OPEC+ has decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, and short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend [5][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - A data center cooling system problem in Chicago led to a trading halt at CME, causing disruptions in multiple markets. Gold rose about 1.5% and silver soared 5% on Friday, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts. The Shanghai and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories are falling, and the CME trading halt has reduced market liquidity. It is recommended to reduce positions [10]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Japanese Finance Minister said the rapid yen depreciation is not driven by fundamentals. Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, and it is expected that Hassett will be elected, leading to increased market risk appetite and a weaker US dollar [11][13]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine's new negotiation representative went to the US to discuss ending the war. The CME system failure caused trading interruptions. The US rate - cut expectations are rising, and the market risk appetite has improved. The US stock index is expected to continue to repair and show a strong - biased volatile trend [15][16]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, slightly up from the previous value. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium. The stock market trading volume has shrunk, and there may be no trend - based market in the short term. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices [18][19]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a 3013 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise. It is recommended to short long - term bond varieties on rebounds [21][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra has caused floods and landslides. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease, and prices may rebound. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November, about 30 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started production. The sugar production in Guangxi in November is expected to be 100,000 tons, far lower than last year. The Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the main funds will gradually shift to the 5 - month contract [26][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October, China's cotton product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The EU's clothing imports from China increased in Q3. The US cotton export signing and shipment increased in the week ending October 16. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term [32][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia plans to add 48.4 million tons of steel production capacity from 2030 - 2035. China's November automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, up year - on - year and month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound, and it is recommended to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Argentina's soybean planting was 39% complete as of November 27. The US sold 312,000 tons of soybeans to China. International markets should focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather, and domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [39][41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Corn starch is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to operate in the price - difference range in the medium - short term and expect it to strengthen in the long term [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of November 27, the average grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, and in North China was 25%, both faster than last year. Corn futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and it is not recommended to short against the trend in the short term [43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - CSPT agreed to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Hainan's new - energy power price was cleared at the upper limit. Polysilicon prices are under pressure, and it is recommended that investors operate with caution due to high volatility [49][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan are declining. The market is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [52][54]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 27, LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The old - standard electric bicycle CCC certificates will be cancelled from December 1. The lead market is short of supply and strong in demand, and it is recommended to buy on dips [55][56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 27, LME zinc had a large - scale contango. Antamina's zinc ore tender price was below $30/dry ton. Zinc prices are likely to rise, and it is recommended to observe buying opportunities on the right side and hold long - spread positions [57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Frontier Lithium released its mid - term report. The lithium carbonate market may face short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to short on highs in the short term and buy on lows in the medium term [59][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. The nickel market is in surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at the current level [63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 28, the EUA main contract closed at €83.26/ton. EU carbon prices are supported by auction suspension and reduced supply in 2026 but may be suppressed by warm weather [65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US crude oil production reached a record high in September. Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress [67][70]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The UK plans to cancel the small - package tariff exemption in 2029. The SCFI index rose. The container freight market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to consider light - position long positions in the 02 contract [71][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (from November 24 to November 28, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market declined slightly. The average daily trading volume was 7.71 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 10.47 million lots, with环比 changes of -9.63% and +2.79% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, most of the underlying futures of commodity options rose, with 47 varieties closing lower on a weekly basis. The varieties with relatively high weekly increases included silver (+8.96%), glass (+6.69%), and methanol (+6.54%); the variety with a relatively high weekly decline was ferrosilicon (-1.50%) [2][16]. - This week, the implied volatility of 37 commodity options increased on a weekly basis, and 21 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50th percentile of the past year's history. For varieties with implied volatility at a historical high, investors should be wary of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; for those at a historical low, buying options has a higher cost - performance ratio [2][16]. - Currently, the trading volume PCR of iron ore and asphalt is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the trading volume PCR of aluminum, cotton, rubber, soda ash, etc. is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase. The open interest PCR of paraxylene, lithium carbonate, and iron ore is at a historical high, while that of gold, aluminum, palm oil, ethylene glycol, etc. is at a one - year low [2][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week, the average daily trading volume of actively traded varieties mainly included glass (730,000 lots), lithium carbonate (700,000 lots), and silver (640,000 lots). There were 3 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 100%, namely peanuts (+222%), corn starch (+154%), and corn (+116%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were silver (-67%), soybean No. 2 (-62%), and aluminum alloy (-59%) [1][8]. - The varieties with relatively high average daily open interest this week were glass (1.13 million lots), soda ash (910,000 lots), and soybean meal (830,000 lots). The varieties with a relatively rapid increase in average daily open interest were bottle chips (+48%), industrial silicon (+38%), and corn starch (+35%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - Most of the underlying futures of commodity options rose this week, with 47 varieties closing lower on a weekly basis. The varieties with relatively high weekly increases included silver (+8.96%), glass (+6.69%), and methanol (+6.54%); the variety with a relatively high weekly decline was ferrosilicon (-1.50%) [2][16]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - This week, the implied volatility of 37 commodity options increased on a weekly basis, and 21 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50th percentile of the past year's history. The implied volatility of silver and Shanghai tin increased by 5.06 and 4.50 percentage points respectively. Varieties with implied volatility at a historical high included silver, plastic, polypropylene, methanol, and live pigs; those at a historical low included zinc, manganese silicon, urea, and rebar [2][16]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - Currently, the trading volume PCR of iron ore and asphalt is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the trading volume PCR of aluminum, cotton, rubber, soda ash, etc. is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase. The open interest PCR of paraxylene, lithium carbonate, and iron ore is at a historical high, while that of gold, aluminum, palm oil, ethylene glycol, etc. is at a one - year low [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter mainly presents the key data of main varieties, including trading situations, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of varieties can be accessed on the official website of Dongzheng Fanwei (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's new energy vehicle market penetration rate exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% since 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products continue to be launched, and the call for "anti - involution" is growing louder. Overseas, trade protectionism in Europe and the US is severe, bringing volatility risks to exports. Attention should be paid to new growth points such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East. In terms of the competition pattern, self - owned brands' market share continues to expand, and companies with strong product power, smooth overseas expansion, and strong supply stability should be focused on [4][121]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The closing prices and weekly price changes of some listed companies on November 28 are presented. For example, BYD (002594.SZ) closed at 95.17 yuan with a weekly increase of 2.66%, and GAC Group (601238.SH) closed at 9.25 yuan with a weekly increase of 21.71% [15]. 3.2产业链数据跟踪 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports in the Chinese Market**: Data on China's new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, domestic sales, and exports are presented through multiple charts [16][18][20]. - **Inventory Changes in the Chinese Market**: Charts show the monthly new additions to the channel inventory and manufacturer inventory of new energy passenger cars [25][26]. - **Delivery Volumes of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers**: Monthly delivery volumes of several Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO are presented through charts [29][30][35]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: Data on global new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EVs and PHVs are presented through charts [42][43][46]. - **European Market**: Information on European new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EVs and PHVs in different European countries (UK, Germany, France) are presented through charts [47][48][52]. - **North American Market**: Data on North American new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EVs and PHVs are presented through charts [60][61][63]. - **Other Regions**: Information on new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EVs and PHVs in regions such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand are presented through charts [64][65][70]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - Data on power battery installation volume (by material), export volume (by material), weekly average price of battery cells, and cell material cost are presented through charts. Also, information on the operating rates and prices of various battery materials such as ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and negative electrode materials are provided [80][82][86]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - Daily prices of raw materials such as rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are presented through charts [102][103][104]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 Industry Dynamics: China - From November 1 - 23, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 11% year - on - year, while the cumulative retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 3% year - on - year, with a retail penetration rate of 61.3%. The cumulative retail sales of passenger cars and new energy vehicles since this year have increased by 6% and 20% respectively. The Passenger Car Association estimates that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in November will be about 2.25 million, with a growth rate of - 8.7%, and the new energy vehicle sales will be about 1.35 million, with a growth rate of 6.5%, and the penetration rate will be about 60% [2][109][119]. 3.3.2 Industry Dynamics: Overseas - The UK government released a new critical minerals strategy on November 22, with up to £50 million in funding. The strategy aims to increase domestic production of critical minerals, reduce over - reliance on imports, and achieve certain goals by 2035, such as increasing domestic lithium production to at least 50,000 tons in the next 10 years [111]. - Thailand's National Electric Vehicle Policy Committee took measures to prevent market supply over - supply. It strengthened export incentives and introduced a "Reverse Exit" option for registered vehicles [112][113]. - Indonesia plans to stop providing automobile incentives in 2026 [115]. 3.3.3 Enterprise Dynamics - The joint - venture battery super factory of CATL and Stellantis in Spain started construction on November 26, with an annual production capacity of 50GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries [1][3][116]. - NIO's battery swap stations in Sweden were approved to be connected to the local power grid frequency regulation system on November 11 [117][118]. 3.4 Industry Views - Similar to the industry dynamics in China and overseas, it analyzes the sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic and overseas markets, and points out the reasons for the sharp decline in US new energy vehicle sales in October [2][119]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - Focus on new growth points such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East due to trade protectionism in Europe and the US. Pay attention to companies with strong product power, smooth overseas expansion, and strong supply stability [4][121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market rebounded significantly last week, with different industries contributing to the gains of various indices. The trading volume of each variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and the roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract. The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy's net value remained flat last week, and new signals were given. The daily timing strategy generally made profits last week, but the new signals of the timing model showed a significant increase in the degree of bearishness [3][4][5][6][7]. - In the bond futures market, the IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread. The daily timing strategy signals were mainly long last week, and the interest rate timing signals predicted an upward trend in interest rates [42][43][44]. - In the commodity market, last week, the commodity market generally had more gains than losses. The momentum and term - structure factors performed well, and the volume - price trend and some value - based factors had the largest increase. There may be a risk of factor return retracement in the short term, but the long - term performance of commodity factors is still optimistic. Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures 3.1.1 Market Review - The market rebounded significantly last week. Electronics and non - ferrous metals contributed to the main gains of the SSE 50; electronics and communications contributed to the main gains of the CSI 300; electronics and power equipment contributed to the main gains of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [3]. - The trading volume of each variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. IF maintained a shallow discount, while IC and IM maintained a deep discount [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Strategy Recommendation - The basis of each variety weakened. It is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and the roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4]. 3.1.3 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the net value of each strategy generally made profits last week. The annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factor made profits of 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0% (6 - times leverage) respectively. The annualized basis rate factor turned to a positive arbitrage signal [5]. - The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy's net value remained flat last week. The new cross - variety signals recommend a 50% position to go long on IF and short on IC, and a 100% position to go long on IM and short on IC [6]. 3.1.4 Timing Strategy Tracking - The daily timing strategy generally made profits last week. The SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had losses of 1.0%, 0.4%, and profits of 1.0%, 0.6% respectively. The new signals of the timing model showed a significant increase in the degree of bearishness, and the model was bearish on the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [7]. 3.2 Bond Futures 3.2.1 Basis and Inter - period Spread - The IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread [42]. 3.2.2 Unilateral Strategy - The bond futures market fluctuated last week. The daily timing strategy signals were mainly long. The main bullish factors included the basis, intraday volume - price, and high - frequency capital flow, while the main bearish factors included daily technicals and member positions [43]. 3.2.3 Interest Rate Timing Signal - The interest rate timing signals predicted an upward trend in interest rates, with a relatively high proportion of long positions in the production factor and inventory factor [44]. 3.3 Commodity Market 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Last week, the commodity market generally had more gains than losses. Glass, polysilicon, methanol, and silver had significant increases, while coking coal had a significant decline. The momentum and term - structure factors performed well, and the volume - price trend and some value - based factors had an average increase of more than 0.5%. The warehouse - receipt factors also increased slightly, while other factors decreased slightly. There may be a risk of factor return retracement in the short term, but the long - term performance of commodity factors is still optimistic [57]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.4%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.62, a Calmar ratio of 1.07, a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, a recent one - week return of 0.11%, and a year - to - date return of 4.53% [58].

伦敦金涨 4.3%至 4219 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率降至 4%，通胀 预期 2.24%，实际利率下行至 1.76%，美元指数跌 0.72%至 99.4，标 普 500 指数涨 3.73%，人民币升值，沪金折价扩大。 贵 金 属 金价再度转涨，表现偏强，一方面是对美联储降息预期的快速提 升，一方面是白银出现现货紧张再度炒作逼空推动了整个贵金属 板块的上涨。美联储多位官员发表讲话，基调从此前的鹰派转为 鸽派，12 月降息概率已经回升至 80%以上，美联储理事米兰再度 呼吁应该大幅降息，美联储理事沃勒则担忧就业市场而倾向于 12 月继续降息，哈塞特作为美联储下届主席的有力人选也表态鸽派 支持进一步降息，市场对于美联储后续的利率路径预期持续宽松。 美元指数高位回落，大宗商品整体反弹。 美国 9 月零售销售环比增加 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.6%，消费 动能有所放缓，黑五网上销售额大幅增加，但价格上涨幅度大于 销售量的增加，通胀压力有所增加，9 月耐用品订单环比增加 0.5%，预期 0.3%，前值 3%，9 月 PPI 同比 2.7%、环比 0.3%符合 预期，核心 PPI 同比 2.6%、环比 ...