调研报告—铅 smingfTable_Title] 湖南再生铅调研： 供应承压持续，需求探底不远 | | | [★Ta关bl键e_调Su研mm结a论ry]和分析 1）湖南再生厂多为半产，保供压力依然较大。调研样本开工率 在 50%左右，主要是原料供应紧缺所致，多数企业反馈近期原料 采购较为困难。多数再生企业的原料库存基本探底，虽然企业反 馈对于后续原料保供有信心，但在几乎所有再生厂都不进行套保 的背景下，对仓库中见底的原料库存担忧是难免的。 有 色 金 2）副产品贡献利润，综合回收企业总体盈利。湖南铅加工企业 的运营情况存在一定差异，但所有样本企业现金流均反馈并不紧 张，且不存在账期问题。由于今年副产品价格上行明显，年初至 今综合回收企业为持续小幅盈利，部分仅用废电瓶为原料的企业 则面临亏损，后市需警惕小金属价格回落对企业盈利的冲击。 属 3）需求或即将见底。3 月铅需求相对较好，4 至 5 月连月下滑， 五一后需求走弱更为明显，汽车订单不及往年同期水平。目前下 游需求不仅处于终端需求淡季，也处于初端开工和假期临近的偏 弱节点，多数厂商认同需求低点即将出现，认为至少等到 7 月需 求才会有所好转，但同时也担心 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普同意暂缓欧盟关税 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-26 宏观策略（黄金） 特朗普威胁对欧盟加征关税 周五金价涨近 2%，主要受到关税问题的带动，特朗普威胁对欧 盟加征 50%关税引发市场避险情绪，推动金价走强。最新消息 特朗普再度改口延期对欧盟关税。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普同意暂缓欧盟关税 综 特朗普同意暂缓欧盟关税，表明美欧之间继续进入到可以商谈 时间窗口，短期市场风险偏好回升。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 1425 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 当前市场仍然缺乏相对明确的交易主线，债市以窄幅震荡为主。 中线依然看多，但做多需把握时机，尽可能收集低价筹码。 黑色金属（动力煤） 4 月韩国煤炭进口量同比下降 20.16% 进入 5 月中旬，伴随气温季节性走高和火电日耗转正，港口煤价 或在 600 元/吨暂时企稳。若看不到国内煤炭产量大规模减产， 煤价难以见底。 农产品（白糖） 截至 5 月下旬，广西食糖第三方库存约 138 万吨 全国 24/25 榨季生产全面结束，云南糖产量预计创纪录，5 月中 下旬以来，云南去库加快。因糖厂销售 ...

周度报告——商品期权 商品期权周报：2025 年第 20 周 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 25 日 ★ 商品期权市场活跃度 本周（2025.5.19-2025.5.23）商品期权市场成交有所下滑，日 均成交量为 591 万手，日均持仓量为 829 万手，环比变化分 别为-11%和+10%。分品种来看，本周日均成交活跃的品种 主要包括苯乙烯（75 万手）、氧化铝（74 万手）、白银（36 万手）。此外，本周共有 1 个品种成交增长超过 100%，成交 量增长较为显著的品种为氧化铝（+165%）、锰硅（+69%） 以及沪铅（+54%）。与此同时，成交量下降较为明显的品种 则有多晶硅（-69%）、尿素（-61%）。从持仓量数据来看， 本周日均持仓量较高的品种为豆粕（79 万手）、纯碱（49 万手）和玻璃（48 万手）。日均持仓量环比增长较为迅速的 品种为氧化铝（+107%）、工业硅（+74%）和碳酸锂（+54%）。 建议投资者可重点关注交易活跃品种可能存在的市场机会。 ★ 商品期权主要数据点评 标的涨跌情况：本周商品期权标的期货涨跌不一，化工及有 色金属以下跌为主，37 个品种周度收涨。周度涨幅较高的品 种有 ...

周度报告-黄金 美国债务和贸易谈判推动金价再度上涨 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | | 黄金：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 月 | 25 | 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 4.8%至 3357 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.51%，通胀 预期 2.35%，实际利率微升至 2.16%，美元指数跌 1.96%至 99.1，标 普 500 指数跌 2.61%，离岸人民币小幅升值，沪金溢价收窄。 贵 金 属 金价大幅上涨，一方面是市场再度交易美国政府债务问题，穆迪 下调美国主权评级，理由是美国政府债务规模庞大以及利息支出 负担加剧，20 年期美债招标数据显示需求不佳，推动美债收益率 明显走高，30 年期美债收益率突破 5%。此外，日本长端债券招 标数据亦不佳，叠加日央行自去年已经不再进行收益率曲线控制 并且存在加息空间，日债收益率持续走高，并带动欧美债券收益 率走高，尤其是美债市场，二者联动性较高，后续美国和日本债 市以及汇率市场波动预计仍会较大。另一方 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿石散单价格反弹， 氧化铝现货价格上涨 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 5 | 年 | 月 | 25 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★几内亚矿石散单价格反弹，氧化铝现货价格上涨 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。河南部分产区矿山暂停导致局 部区域矿石供应呈现紧张趋势，山西目前开采的矿山仍在继续开 采，没有复产的矿山则继续停产整顿，供应端没有太多变化。进 口方面，几内亚军政府将 AXIS 矿区划为军事储备区，涉及的顺 达、中水电及高顶三家矿山均处于停产状态。矿石散货成交明显 增加主流成交价格上涨至 74-75 美元/干吨。到货方面，期内新 到矿石 457.3 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 380.3 万吨，澳大利亚 资源 ...

Report Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most global stock markets falling and bond yields rising. The US dollar index has weakened, while non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. Gold and Brent crude oil prices have increased. The threat of tariffs and the US government's debt issues are major concerns, and the stock market's subsequent volatility may increase [1][2][8] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite has cooled. Most stock markets have fallen, and bond yields have mostly risen, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.51%. The US dollar index has dropped 1.96% to 99.1, and non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. Gold has risen 4.8% to $3357 per ounce, the VIX index has rebounded to 22.3, and the spot commodity index has closed higher. Brent crude oil has rebounded 0.7% to $65.5 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets have mostly fallen. Developed - market stocks have generally declined, with the S&P 500 down 2.61%. Emerging - market stocks have shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.57%. Concerns about the US government's debt have increased after Moody's downgraded the US rating. Tariff issues have pressured the stock market, and economic data has been affected by pre - tariff export rushes. The Fed's interest - rate cut intention has decreased, and the stock market's subsequent volatility may increase [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields have mostly risen, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield reaching 4.51%. Eurozone countries' bond yields have shown mixed trends, and emerging - market bond yields have mostly increased. The demand for long - term bonds in Japan and the US has been weak, pushing up yields. The US 30 - year Treasury has exceeded 5%. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield has risen to 1.697%, and the domestic bond market remains in a volatile state [14][16][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index has dropped 1.96% to 99.1, and non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. The offshore RMB has risen 0.53%, the euro has risen 1.75%, the pound has risen 1.89%, and other non - US currencies have also shown significant increases [28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has risen 4.8% to $3357 per ounce. Moody's downgrade of the US government rating and tariff threats have boosted gold prices. The gold market has entered an oscillating phase. Brent crude oil has rebounded 0.7% to $65.5 per barrel, and the overall commodity market has closed higher [33] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on June 1 and a 25% tax on Apple's products produced in India. The implementation of the 50% tariff on the EU is likely, which may cause greater market volatility. The passage of the US tax - cut bill is expected to increase the deficit and exacerbate the US Treasury problem [37][38] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: The US and the UK will have a one - day holiday - Tuesday: The US will release the March housing price index and the May Conference Board consumer confidence index - Wednesday: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest - rate meeting decision - Thursday: The US will release the first - quarter GDP revision and the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Fed will release the May interest - rate meeting minutes - Friday: The US will release the April core PCE [39]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅弱势不改，多晶硅即将进入首次交割 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 25 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，部分小厂计划进一步减产，但西南进入平水 期后整体开炉趋势增加，新疆大厂亦在复工复产，供给端压力 继续增加。需求端仍无明显起色，虽然有机硅较多厂已处于满 负荷生产状态，但多晶硅复产不及预期，铝合金方面维持刚需 采购。多晶硅厂家近期对工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9300-9500 元/吨。后续工业硅现货价格缺乏反弹动力。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 多晶硅现货价格小跌，市场消息混杂，小作文传言诸多低价成 交订单，建议对其为致密料/混包料、新货/老库存、大客户折 前价格/折后价格进行辨析。5 月多晶硅排产约 9.3 万吨，6 月 初步排产 9.1 万吨。但周五盘后市场传言某二三线硅料厂二期 产能有复产计划，根据后续进展我们将对平衡表再进行调整。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dominant logic of the current market is the downward spiral of salt and ore prices and cost reduction at the resource end. The significant month - on - month increase in lithium element imports in April exacerbated market pessimism. However, the short - term downward space for ore prices is limited, and salt factory maintenance may provide short - term price support. The long - term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but short - term decline is restricted, and previous short positions can consider partial profit - taking or contract switching [3][14][15] Summary by Directory 1. 4 月锂元素进口环比大增，盘面再创新低 - Last week (05/19 - 05/23), lithium salt prices continued to be weak. LC2506 and LC2507 closing prices decreased by 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices dropped by 2.2%. SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average prices for coarse - grained and micronized types decreased by 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. The electric - industrial price difference slightly narrowed, and the premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate continued to widen. In April, China imported 2.83 million tons of lithium carbonate (month - on - month increase of 56%, year - on - year increase of 18%) and 623,000 tons of spodumene ore (equivalent to 535,000 tons, month - on - month increase of 20%, year - on - year increase of 10%), and the domestic lithium ore inventory at the end of April increased to 3.7 months [2][12][13] 2. Week - on - Week Industry News Review - Kodal expects to soon obtain an export license for 27,000 tons of lithium concentrate from its Bougouni project in Mali. In April, China imported 623,000 tons of spodumene, a 16.5% month - on - month increase. Argentina approved a $2.5 billion lithium mine project by Rio Tinto. Zimbabwean lithium exporters seek to postpone the export tax until 2027. The EU postponed two matters of the Battery Act, giving Chinese lithium - battery enterprises a buffer for exports to Europe [16][17][19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Continue to Decline - The spot quotes of lithium concentrate are continuously dropping [19] 3.2 Lithium Salt: The Main Contract is Weakly Running - The main contracts of lithium salt are running weakly [23] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Decline - The quotes of downstream intermediates are falling [37] 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Rebounded in April - China's new energy vehicle penetration rate rebounded in April [43]

美债风险压制权益表现，中国小微盘高估风 险仍存 周度报告——股指期货 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a北ry]证 50 回调风险加大 股 指 期 货 本周（05.19-05.23）以美元计价的全球股市收跌。MSCI 全球指 数跌 1.42%，其中前沿市场（+2.00%）>新兴市场（-0.12%）> 前沿市场（-1.57%）。南非股指涨 2.36%领跑全球，美国股市跌 2.62%全球表现最差。中国权益分市场看，港股>A 股>中概股。 A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 11735 亿元，环比上周（12664 亿元) 缩量 929 亿元。A 股指数中仅深证 50、微盘股指数小幅收涨。 北证 50 指数则大幅下跌 3.68%。本周 A 股中信一级行业中共 9 个上涨（上周 21 个），21 个下跌（上周 9 个）。领涨行业为综 合（+1.93%），跌幅最大的行业为综合金融（-4.79%）。利率方 面，本周 10Y 国债收益率上行，1Y 下行，利差扩大。ETF 资金 流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额本周减少 9 亿份，跟 踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额减少 2 亿份。跟踪中证 1000 的 ETF 份 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market lacks the power to break the situation and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamentals are favorable for the bond market in the long - term, but there is no basis for significant rises or falls in the short - term. The treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate narrowly. [2] - Strategies include being long - term bullish on the bond market but buying on dips in the short - term; steepening the curve in the long - term with a bumpy process; and the opportunity for futures cash - and - carry arbitrage is decreasing, and attention can be paid to the strategy of the basis returning to 0. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - **This Week's Trend Review**: From May 19th to May 25th, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly. Due to factors such as the balance of funds, economic data, and deposit rate adjustments, the yield curve showed different changes each day. As of May 23rd, the settlement prices of the 09 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased by 0.034, 0.150, 0.225, and 0.380 yuan respectively compared to last weekend. [13] - **Next Week's Outlook**: The news will be relatively calm. The market will focus on the changes in the capital side and market sentiment. The capital side is expected to be generally balanced. The market may bet on events such as the central bank restarting secondary - market treasury bond trading and the weakening of the May manufacturing PMI, but these trades are expected to be short - term. Treasury bond futures will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [2] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, 92 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 968.322 billion yuan and a net financing of 548.079 billion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds decreased, the net financing of local government bonds decreased slightly, and the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly. [21] - **Secondary Market**: Treasury bond yields showed a divergent trend. As of May 23rd, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.69, - 2.26, + 3.67, and + 0.45 basis points respectively compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y widened, while the spread of 30Y - 10Y narrowed. [26] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest**: Treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly. As of May 23rd, the settlement prices of the 09 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased compared to last weekend. The trading volumes and open interests of each variety changed to different extents this week. [34][38] - **Basis and IRR**: The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy has significantly decreased. The basis of each variety has started to rise, and the willingness of long - position participants has declined. In the future, the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy opportunity will gradually disappear, and the basis will return to a relatively normal level. [42] - **Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads**: As of May 23rd, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures decreased compared to last weekend. [45] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - The central bank's open - market full - caliber net investment was 1.2 trillion yuan this week. As of May 23rd, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week changed by + 0.15, - 5.14, - 8.90, and + 0.70 basis points respectively compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the overnight proportion was lower than last week. [52][54][56] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield increased slightly. As of May 23rd, the US dollar index fell 1.84% to 99.1231 compared to last weekend, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 8 basis points to 4.51%, and the 10Y China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 279.2 basis points. [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices all declined. As of May 23rd, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index decreased compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits changing slightly compared to last weekend. [66] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to buy on dips. [67]