季度报告——锰硅/硅铁 成本下移，供需宽松 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 锰硅/硅铁：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 4 日 | 年 | 月 | 3 | [Table_Summary] ★锰硅：锰矿支撑有限，价格回归供需 硅锰方面，虽然港口锰矿库存持续下降，尤其是氧化矿库 存。天津港锰矿库存降至 300 万吨以下，为近几年来的最 低水平。低锰矿库存也在一定程度上支撑了硅锰价格。但 未来仍有一定量的锰矿到港。港口难以延续去库节奏。锰 矿到港增加价格下降，对硅锰支撑有限。供应方面预计仍 将维持在较低水平，关注价格下行后会供应的挤出影响。 ★硅铁：供需偏弱，成本下移 硅铁方面，尽管硅铁成本端呈现持续下行态势，但硅铁价 格也延续了下行节奏，导致硅铁厂利润依然偏低，供应维 持在低位。二季度来看，需求端暂无明显亮点，整体供应 预计将维持现状。若后续价格继续下行，利润进一步收缩， 硅锰开工率可能会出现下降。 ★二季度硅锰、硅铁市场展望 综合来看，铁合金产能过剩状况未变，整体仍呈供需偏宽 松格局，同时成本或有下移，合金价格或延 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US announced reciprocal tariffs, which led to a significant decline in risk assets. The tariff measures have a wide - ranging impact on various financial and commodity markets [1]. - In the commodity market, different products show different trends. For example, the steel price has limited rebound space, the lithium price pressure is marginally weakened, and the oil price is under pressure due to concerns about demand [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Republican Party plans to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion and continue Trump - era tax cuts. Trump's tariff policy has increased risk aversion, which is beneficial to gold, but the stock market decline may also have a negative impact on gold through liquidity. Gold is strong in the short - term but with increased market volatility [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Senate Republicans' budget blueprint involves tax cuts and debt ceiling increases. The ADP employment in March increased by 155,000 people, but salary growth slowed. Trump's tariff measures exceeded expectations, increasing the downward risk of US stocks [12][13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 229.9 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 225.5 billion yuan. Although the market has not shown a clear upward trend, the probability of monetary policy loosening is high, and it is recommended to actively conduct long - term layouts [17]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the weekly export sales report. The expected export sales of US soybeans are between 25 - 850,000 tons. The impact of Trump's tariff policy on the soybean market needs further attention [19]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports in March increased by 3.92%. The production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline. India's palm oil imports in March increased by 13.2%. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider buying on dips [22][23][24]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Jinzhong is stabilizing. The demand has recovered slightly, but the futures market is still under pressure from warehouse receipts. It is recommended to wait and see for the futures market [25][26]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased, but the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that the CS05 - C05 spread will continue to fluctuate around the normal processing fee of 380 [27][28]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In the first quarter of 2025, the price of new homes in 100 cities in China increased, while the price of second - hand homes decreased. The steel price has large intraday fluctuations, and the export situation is not optimistic in the medium term. It is recommended to take a bearish view on price rebounds [29][30][31]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Traders are actively selling corn, and the spot price is falling. The futures price may have different trends for different contracts. It is recommended to pay attention to the weather in the wheat - producing areas in mid - to late April [32]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The imported steam coal market is stable. The power plant's demand is weak, and the coal price is expected to remain weak in April [33]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company plans to produce 2 million tons of iron ore in Madagascar. In the short term, the iron ore price is supported by the increase in molten iron, but in the long term, the order expectation is deteriorating [34][35]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Affected by the earthquake and market supply - demand, the price of silicon wafers has increased. The polysilicon inventory is expected to decrease in March - April and then increase again in May. It is recommended to pay attention to the price trend in different periods [37][38]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in March increased by 51,900 tons. There are rumors of production cuts, but the impact on the market is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the range - bound operation opportunities [39][40]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Western Mining achieved good results in the first quarter. Some Japanese copper companies' production is expected to be flat. The copper price is affected by macro factors and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [41][42][44]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Western Mining's lead production increased in the first quarter. The lead price is supported by waste batteries but limited by weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][47][48]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Boliden's acquisition of mines has been approved. The zinc price is affected by macro factors and market rumors. It is recommended to control positions in the short term [49][50][51]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's nickel production capacity in Indonesia has been fully built. The nickel price is cost - supported, and it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [52][53][54]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma Lithium's lithium production reached a record high in 2024. The basic data of lithium carbonate still shows an oversupply, but the pressure on the lithium price is marginally weakened [55][57]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price of LPG in Shandong is stable. The US C3 inventory has increased. The LPG price is affected by tariff policy expectations [58][59]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory has increased significantly. The oil price has fallen due to concerns about demand after the US announced reciprocal tariffs [60]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - grade caustic soda in Shandong is falling. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to decline, but the decline is limited [62][63][65]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp shows a differentiated trend. The pulp price is affected by weak domestic demand and tariff policies [66]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has decreased slightly. The market is in a state of shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, but the rate of decline has slowed. The market is expected to be in a shock state [69][70]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips is mostly stable. The supply pressure has increased due to the restart of production capacity, and the short - term processing fee is under pressure [71][73][74]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Jinxi Petrochemical's styrene plant is under maintenance. The cost - side guidance is weakened, and the market is in a wide - range shock [75][76]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to short on rallies [77]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has slightly increased. The price is mainly affected by demand. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on large pullbacks [78][79]. 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container throughput of major ports in China increased in January - February, but the import was weak. The European line freight rate is oscillating, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [80][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for bottle chips is "sideways", and for staple fibers is also "sideways" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q2 2025, both supply and demand for bottle chips are expected to increase. Despite seasonal peak - demand support, high supply may lead to inventory accumulation, and processing fees will face pressure, but the further compression space is limited. For staple fibers, there may be a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand. Short - term processing fees may strengthen, but there is a risk of decline later [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First - quarter Review of Bottle Chips and Staple Fibers 3.1.1 Bottle Chips - In Q1 2025, the spot and futures prices of bottle chips first rose and then fell, with the price center shifting downward. Processing fees first increased and then decreased. Factories reduced production during the off - season to relieve inventory pressure. Later, prices followed polyester raw materials down, and processing fees slightly recovered due to low industry operation and improved demand. By mid - to late March, processing fees quickly dropped to around 350 yuan/ton [16] 3.1.2 Staple Fibers - In Q1 2025, the price of staple fibers declined, dragged down by falling polyester raw materials and weak supply - demand. The basis strengthened passively, reflecting a pessimistic market outlook. The spot processing fee fluctuated between 1050 - 1200 yuan/ton, and the central value of the disk processing fee decreased. High supply and slow - recovering demand led to the decline in processing fees [18] 3.2 Second - quarter Outlook for Bottle Chips 3.2.1 Supply - In Q2, the operating rate of bottle chips is expected to rise significantly. In Q1, the operating rate was low, and production decreased. In Q2, with the peak - demand season approaching, factories will increase production, and new devices may be put into operation. If inventory accumulates in April, the operating rate may be adjusted downward in May and June [21] 3.2.2 Domestic Demand - Bottle chip demand will seasonally strengthen in Q2. The demand for bottle chips has obvious seasonal characteristics, with the peak from July to August. In 2025, the production of soft drinks, edible oils, and catering revenue all increased year - on - year, providing rigid support for demand. Government consumption - promotion policies are also expected to drive demand growth [31] 3.2.3 Export - In Q1 2025, bottle chip exports increased by 17.5% year - on - year. Exports from Hainan and Liaoning increased significantly. Although there are trade frictions, their impact on overall exports is limited. In Q2, large manufacturers expect an increase in export orders, and export volume may maintain high - speed growth [39][45] 3.3 Second - quarter Outlook for Staple Fibers 3.3.1 Supply - In Q1 2025, the supply pressure of staple fibers was high, with the operating rate and production reaching new highs. New capacity was added in February. In Q2, without considering industry - wide production cuts, factories are willing to maintain high - level operation, but the space for further increase in supply is limited. However, industry self - discipline may lead to production cuts, which could relieve supply pressure if implemented [47][51] 3.3.2 Domestic Demand - In Q1, domestic demand for staple fibers was weak. Retail sales of clothing and textiles increased moderately, but exports were affected by tariff policies. Spinning mill orders were lower than in previous years, and downstream yarn mills had high inventory and low stocking willingness. In Q2, demand may weaken seasonally. Although domestic consumption is expected to grow moderately, export pressure may increase, and weaving operations may face seasonal decline [53][64] 3.3.3 Export - In Q1 2025, staple fiber exports increased by 39.1% year - on - year, mainly due to cost advantages and the upward shift of the industrial chain caused by the relocation of the textile industry. Exports are expected to maintain high - speed growth, and the export volume may increase after Ramadan in April, but the impact on the overall supply - demand pattern is currently limited [67] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - For bottle chips, pay attention to the operating opportunities of disk processing fees in the range of 350 - 450 yuan/ton. For staple fibers, pay attention to the opportunity of short - term repair of disk processing fees and then shorting at high levels [4][69]

重点集装箱港口及关键枢纽监测20250402 东证衍生品研究院 黑色与航运部 兰淅 从业资格号：F03086543 投资咨询号：Z0016590 数据点评 • 亚洲港口： 洋山港、外高桥远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间分别为18.2小时/23.9小时、41.9小时/19.0小时，最新在锚/在泊集装 箱船数量达到17艘/27艘、 31艘/29艘；宁波港远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为17.3时/25.7小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱船数量 为32艘/26艘。青岛远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为16.2小时/25.4小时；新加坡港远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为 0.9小时/33.9小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱船数量为4艘/45艘 ，巴生港周均等泊时间/在泊时间为21.6小时/25.9小时，最新在锚/在泊集 装箱船数量为32艘/24艘。天气反复，宁波和上海地区港口拥堵有所反弹、船舶周转效率下滑。青岛港前期拥堵和延误情况存在改善。巴 生港仍然存在较为严重的堵港和船期延误问题。 • 欧洲港口： 鹿特丹、安特卫普、汉堡港、勒阿弗尔，远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间分别为10.8小时/50.4小时、2 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 A 股市场对于对等关税的响应并不足够，市场虽然缩量，但又选 择了低位的医药股，风险偏好难言实质下行。随着对等关税来 临，预期差或将被消灭。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 石油和生物燃料联盟将在 EPA 会议上寻求提高生物柴油产量 石油公司与生物燃料协会将与 EPA 举行会议，美豆油再度大涨。 综 有色金属（铜） 市场等待特朗普官宣对等关税细节 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-02 宏观策略（股指期货） 特朗普将于北京时间周四凌晨宣布对等关税 合 智利 2 月铜产量同比下滑 5.4% 晨 报 宏观因素继续对铜价形成支撑，配置相关需求将继续托底，但 基本面及关税预期短期或抑制铜价，总体上看，铜价短期震荡 整理可能性更大。 能源化工（纸浆） 今日进口木浆现货市场价格呈下探趋势 内需偏弱导致浆价持续回落。但目前内外价差倒挂严重，限制 价格的进一步走低。且特朗普关税政策推出在即，关注后续是 否会对纸浆供应链造成冲击。 | 黄玉萍 | 资深分析师 | （农产品） | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F3079233 ...

东证衍生品研究院 有色金属分析师 魏林峻 从业资格号： F03111542 投资咨询号：Z0021721 Email: linjun.wei@orientfutures.com 铅二季度观点与策略 3. 需求预期平稳——政策刺激对冲部分传统淡季影响 • 沪铅评级：震荡 • 区间走势：【16800，18500】，宽幅震荡为主。 • 核心逻辑：1. 原生弹性增加——冶炼产能投放仍掣肘于原料和利润 2. 再生矛盾依旧——废电瓶持续性紧缺、阶段性放量 重心上移，仍可择机试多 • 短期观点：短期供需双弱，矛盾在于废电瓶紧缺预期显著，盘面资金底部托举效应强， 同时供需过剩短期难以验证，以回调买入思路对待。 • 2Q观点：废电瓶成本支撑与需求限制高度，2Q铅价或转为宽幅震荡；但原料紧缺问题 持续，2Q铅价坍塌的概率较低，中线仍以低多思路对待为宜，关注低位建仓长期多单 机会，需关注替换需求和储能增量的实际表现及其持续性。 • 交易思路：关注主要由废电瓶紧缺带来的结构性机会，以及内外窗口打开的可能。 • 策略推介：单边：宽幅震荡，但低多安全边际更高，关注回调布局中线多单机会。 套利：关注阶段性内外反套机会，月差等待跨期正套机会 ...

季度报告-棕榈油 市场理性的回归：供需双弱下的新平衡 | | | [Table_Summary] ★2025Q1 行情回顾 2025 年 Q1，棕榈油价格依旧维持较大波动。1 月份，棕榈油价 格延续了 2024 年 12 月开始由印尼 B40 推迟与出口低迷主导的回 调，随后在春节前夕，市场逐步开始交易减产与斋月备货预 期，并在春节后大幅高开并持续走强，一度逼近 2024 年 Q4 的 高点，随后在印尼与印度需求端逐步崩塌的情况下再度回调， 之后维持在区间内震荡的走势。 ★棕榈油的高溢价导致需求崩塌 农 产 品 在产地依旧处于低产量低库存的现实下，需求端便成为主导市 场价格走势的关键因素。目前的棕榈油价格无论相对于豆油亦 或是柴油，均处于明显的高溢价阶段，导致印尼的 B40 与印度 的备货补库需求均不及市场预期，印度一度取消大量的棕榈油 采购订单，印证了市场无法接受持续高溢价下的棕榈油，使得 需求端迅速崩塌。 ★价格展望：寻找新的平衡 近期棕榈油价格的强势离不开供应紧张的现实，产地与销区均 是如此。在产地供应出现复苏迹象之前，即便需求低迷，棕榈 油价格依旧具有较强支撑，维持紧平衡。然而随着斋月结束， 产地逐步 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 关注特朗普关税政策，中国 3 月制造业 PMI 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-01 宏观策略（黄金） 特朗普：大事件将至，也许明晚或周三将看到关税的细节 金价涨超 1%不断刷新历史，特朗普政府即将公布的对等关税细 则引发的避险情绪支撑金价，但股市跌势放缓，黄金盘中波动 增加。 农产品（豆粕） 美国 2025 年大豆种植面积低于预期 综 合 备受市场关注的 USDA 种植意向报告显示 2025 年美豆种植面积 低于预期为 8346 万英亩，但截至 3 月 1 日的季度库存高于市场 预期，CBOT 大豆冲高回落。 晨 有色金属（镍） 报 高镍生铁价格小幅上涨 原料涨价趋势持续，镍价中枢上行 重要事项：本报告版权归上海东证期货有限公司所有。未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息均来源于 公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文 中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成交易建议，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司和 ...

季度报告-美国股指 To'Ingd[Table_Title] 关税冲击逐步显现， 弱势美股等待转机 | 走势评级: | | --- | [Table_Summary] ★2025Q1 美股走势复盘 2025 年一季度美股冲高回落，标普 500 最大回撤超过 10%，避 险情绪浓厚。一方面，DeepSeek 发布后市场对于美国科技技术 垄断产生动摇，修正科技板块估值；另一方面，特朗普正式就 任后大力推行关税和缩减政府规模，市场提前计入衰退预期。 ★经济下行风险积累，货币政策进退两难： 美 国 股 指 劳动力市场继续降温，居民消费意愿降低，关税政策影响下企 业暂缓投资支出，二季度经济下行趋势不改，叠加对等关税落 地，市场将逐步检验关税政策对于通胀和实体经济的负面冲 击，私人部门的信心仍然偏弱。而支撑经济的要素仍需等待， 美联储谨慎的态度转变更有可能出现在 6 月份或下半年，减税 和政府债务上限问题也可能会在年中出现推进。 ★盈利预期超常规下调，估值压力得到释放： 2024 年 Q4 标普 500EPS 同比增长大幅提升至 18.2%，三季度为 7.6%，同时大幅下调 2025 年一季度和全年盈利预期。降息周期 开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is expected to be "short - term bullish and long - term bearish" in 2025. The 24/25 season is expected to have a global production - demand shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to have a surplus, but weather conditions may change the supply situation [60][100]. - The domestic sugar market is more resistant to decline than the international market due to tightened import syrup control policies. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile, but in the long term, it is still in a bearish pattern [101]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 25Q1, the international trade flow of sugar was in short supply, and both domestic and international futures prices fluctuated strongly. The price movements were affected by factors such as international demand, Indian export policies, Brazilian inventory, and weather conditions [2][4]. 2. Fundamental Situation of Major Producing Countries Brazil - As of February 28, the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil was at a low level in recent years, down 50.9% year - on - year. If the new season's early - stage crushing is slow, the international trade flow from April to May will be limited [9]. - In the first quarter, rainfall in the main producing areas was low, and many institutions lowered their sugar production estimates for the 25/26 season. The rainfall from late March to April is crucial. If it is insufficient, the estimates may be further reduced [19]. - The profit from sugar production is still better than that of ethanol. The exchange rate of the Brazilian real affects the "ethanol bottom" and sugar prices. It is initially estimated that the sugar - making ratio in the 25/26 season will increase to about 50% [31]. India - In the 24/25 season, many sugar mills closed early, and production estimates were lowered. As of March 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 2371.5 million tons, a decrease of 16.11% year - on - year. The estimated net sugar production is 2640 million tons, with a production - demand gap of 210 million tons [35]. - In the 25/26 season, if the weather is normal, sugar production is expected to recover significantly, with an estimated total sugar production of about 3800 million tons and a net sugar production of 3200 - 3300 million tons [51]. Thailand - In the 24/25 season, sugar production was lower than expected. In the 25/26 season, due to the decline in the price of competing crops and good sugarcane planting benefits, the planting area is expected to increase, and sugar production is expected to reach 1150 million tons [56]. 3. Global Production - Demand Pattern - For the 24/25 season, most international institutions expect a global production - demand shortage of 300 - 400 million tons, and the ISO estimates a shortage of 488 million tons. For the 25/26 season, most institutions expect a surplus of 200 - 300 million tons, but weather conditions may change this situation [60]. 4. International Market Outlook - The ICE raw sugar May contract is in a situation of tight supply. Before the Brazilian sugar mills start crushing, bulls may speculate. The contract is expected to remain strong, with a trading range of 17 - 18 cents on the lower end and 20 - 21 cents on the upper end [61]. - The international market is expected to be "short - term bullish and long - term bearish". From 25Q2 to 25Q3, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the weather and crushing progress in major producing countries [62]. 5. Chinese Market Situation Production - In the 24/25 season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the second consecutive year to about 1080 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the planting area in Guangxi [70]. - The production of beet sugar is expected to increase significantly, but there may be problems with the outflow of beet sugar warehouse receipts [71]. Consumption - As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar production in China was at a high level in the same period over the years, and the sales volume in February was the highest in the past 12 years. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was at a high level, but the industrial inventory was higher than the average in the past 5 and 10 years [80]. - Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, the spot market is slow, and the third - party warehouse inventory in Guangxi is high [82]. Import - In 2025, the import volume of sugar is expected to be low in the first half of the year and high in the second half. The import volume in the first quarter was low, and it is estimated that the arrival volume will increase after May [85]. - The import of syrup and premixed powder is blocked, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in the 24/25 season. The import cost of sugar in China will be re - anchored to the out - of - quota import cost [93]. 6. Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions International Market - The ICE raw sugar May contract is expected to remain strong in the short term, and the international market is expected to be "short - term bullish and long - term bearish". From 25Q2 to 25Q3, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to supply - side variables caused by adverse weather [100]. Domestic Market - In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited. The 5 - month contract has a resistance level of 6150 - 6200 yuan/ton. In the long term, it is still in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [101]. - For inter - period arbitrage, it is recommended to use the positive arbitrage strategy of buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts between the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 contracts. For speculative investors, it is recommended to use the strategy of buying domestic contracts and selling international contracts [101][102].