1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - By 2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles in China, with the net greenhouse gas emissions in the entire economic scope decreasing by 7%-10% from the peak, non-fossil energy consumption accounting for over 30% of the total energy consumption, and other goals to be achieved [1][109][118]. - The penetration rate of the Chinese new energy vehicle market exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% in 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously launched, and price wars are gradually stopped. Overseas markets face trade protectionism in Europe and the United States, so attention should be paid to new growth points such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East. The market share of independent brands continues to expand [3][120]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The one - week price changes of related sectors and listed companies are presented in charts. For example, BYD's one - week price decline was 1.65%, while Seres' was 9.48% [12][15]. 3.2产业链数据跟踪 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports**: Data on China's new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, domestic sales, exports, and sales of EV and PHV are presented in charts [16][21][23]. - **Inventory Changes**: Charts show the monthly new additions to new energy passenger vehicle channel inventory and manufacturer inventory [24][25]. - **Delivery Volumes of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Enterprises**: Monthly delivery volumes of enterprises such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, NIO, etc., are presented in charts [27][28][32]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: From January to July, global new energy vehicle sales reached 9.233 million, a year - on - year increase of 25.9%. Except for China, Europe and other regions also had significant growth, with year - on - year increases of 29.5% and 53.4% respectively [2]. - **European Market**: Data on European new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in countries like the UK, Germany, and France are presented in charts [44][50][55]. - **North American Market**: In August, US new energy vehicle sales and penetration rate reached record highs. Due to the expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit on September 30, high market enthusiasm is expected to continue in September, followed by a sharp decline. Data on North American new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV are presented in charts [2][119]. - **Other Regions**: Data on new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in regions such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand are presented in charts [62][70][72]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - Data on power battery installation volume, export volume, weekly average price of battery cells, material costs, and the operating rates and prices of various battery materials are presented in charts [79][81][85]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - Data on the daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are presented in charts [102][103][104]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 China: Policy Dynamics - By 2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles in China. From 2026, export license management will be implemented for pure - electric passenger vehicles [109]. 3.3.2 China: Industry Dynamics - From September 1 - 21, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 10% year - on - year, and cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year increased by 24%. In the 38th week (September 15 - 21), new energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 299,000, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, and cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 8.214 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.0% [111][112][113]. 3.3.3 China: Enterprise Dynamics - Chery Automobile was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising HK$9.14 billion. Li Auto and Sunwoda Power jointly established a battery company [114]. 3.3.4 Overseas: Policy Dynamics - Australia announced a 2035 emission reduction target, aiming to reduce emissions by 62 - 70% compared to 2005. The US lowered the import tariff on EU cars to 15%, and Turkey imposed new tariffs on imported passenger cars [114][116][119]. 3.3.5 Overseas: Enterprise Dynamics - BYD's Brazilian factory obtained an international green certificate. Porsche adjusted its product strategy, slowing down electrification and lowering its 2025 performance expectations [117][118]. 3.4 Investment Advice - Pay attention to new growth points such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East. Focus on enterprises with strong product capabilities, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply [3][120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton is "Bearish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry has a strong consensus on a bearish outlook for the future. In the fourth quarter, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, supply pressure and market sentiment will be concentratedly released. The futures price may fall below 13,000 yuan/ton, with the low point possibly occurring in November. After the release of negative factors, downstream restocking will help stabilize the market. In the long - term, the fourth quarter may be the period with the greatest domestic pressure, and the market in the next year is generally cautiously optimistic [5][30][36] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Purpose - To understand the production, cost, acquisition, consumption, inventory, and industry sentiment of cotton in Xinjiang, the researcher participated in the "2025 Autumn Xinjiang Cotton 'Full - industry Chain + Full - domain' In - depth Research" from September 7th to 19th. The research objects included cotton farmers, ginning factories, textile enterprises, and warehousing and logistics enterprises, mainly through enterprise discussions and on - site field inspections [14] 3.2 Research Summary - **New cotton production increase**: The expectation of new cotton production increase is strong, and the production forecast has been raised. The estimated production of Xinjiang cotton this year is between 730 - 780 tons, with a high probability of reaching 750 tons. The planting area has increased by 300 - 400 million mu (7% - 10%), and the average yield per mu has increased by 30 - 50 kg (5% - 10%) [17][18] - **New cotton quality**: The new cotton quality is expected to improve year - on - year. Although the lint percentage in some southern Xinjiang areas may decline, the overall quality of cotton in both southern and northern Xinjiang is better than last year [19] - **Opening time**: The opening time of cotton acquisition in southern and northern Xinjiang is close, expected to be concentrated around September 25th to the end of September, later than the previous market expectation but earlier than last year [20] - **Planting cost and income**: The planting cost has increased slightly year - on - year. The cost of leased land is about 3,000 yuan/mu, and the cost of self - owned land is about 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton. The break - even yield per mu for leased land is 400 - 410 kg [21] - **Cottonseed price**: The cottonseed price has increased year - on - year. The pre - sale price in southern Xinjiang is 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/kg, and in northern Xinjiang is about 2.2 yuan/kg. During the peak acquisition period, the price may drop to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg, still higher than last year [22] - **Ginning factory**: Ginning factories are cautious in acquisition. In northern Xinjiang, due to years of losses, they have lost the ability and impulse to rush for cotton, and the over - capacity situation has been reversed [23][24] - **Cotton farmers**: Cotton farmers have low expectations for the cotton price, with a psychological expectation of 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened [25] - **Warehousing inventory**: The inventory of old cotton in Xinjiang's warehousing enterprises is extremely low, while the industrial inventory of cotton spinning enterprises is relatively high, which can be connected to the large - scale listing of new cotton. However, some inland textile enterprises have tight inventories, and the shortage of high - quality cotton is prominent [26] - **New cotton pre - sale**: The pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton is large, about 150 tons. The pre - sale basis is high, but the actual execution rate is uncertain [27] - **Cotton spinning enterprises**: Xinjiang's cotton spinning enterprises have sufficient orders but shrinking profit margins. The growth of cotton spinning capacity in Xinjiang will enter a bottleneck period [28] 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **Short - term**: In the fourth quarter, due to the large - scale listing of new cotton, the supply pressure and market sentiment will be concentratedly released. The futures price may fall below 13,000 yuan/ton, with the low point possibly in November. It is not recommended to short after the price falls below 13,000 yuan/ton due to the poor risk - return ratio [5][35][36] - **Long - term**: After the release of negative factors, downstream restocking will help stabilize the market. The overall market in the next year is cautiously optimistic [5][36] 3.4 Research Content 3.4.1 September 8th - Kashgar Region, Shache County - **Kashgar Youmian Experimental Base**: It promotes the modernization of the cotton industry. The expected yield per mu of the "Kashgar Youmian" demonstration field in 2025 is 630 kg, a year - on - year increase of more than 50% [41] - **Color Cotton Planting and Research Base**: It uses intelligent agriculture to increase yield. The current yield per mu is about 480 kg, and the lint percentage is 35% - 36% [41] - **Shache County Cotton Industry Company**: The planting area has increased from 800,000 mu last year to 1.1 million mu this year, and the yield per mu is expected to be higher than last year. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is 2.3 yuan/kg, and the expected acquisition price of hand - picked cotton for spinning is below 7 yuan/kg [40][43] - **DW Group Xinjiang Shache Industrial Park Enterprise**: It has a total planned capacity of 4 - 5 million spindles. It only produces one variety, 32s, with high production efficiency. It uses cotton with double 29 indicators, mainly from southern Xinjiang, and has a good profit [45][46][48] 3.4.2 September 9th - Bachu → Tumushuke - **Bachu County Industrial Park Cotton - related Enterprise Symposium**: Bachu's cotton - spinning industry has developed rapidly. The planting area in 2025 is 1.66 million mu, and the yield per mu is expected to increase to 410 - 420 kg. The total inventory of three warehouses is only 160,000 tons. The current cottonseed price is about 2.4 yuan/kg, and the expected acquisition price is 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [52][61] - **Bachu County Delivery Warehouse**: Some factories in Kashgar are purchasing hand - picked cotton for wadding. The expected production in Kashgar this year is 200,000 tons more than last year, but the lint percentage may be one point lower. The current inventory is 38,000 tons, much lower than last year [62][63] - **A Division's Enterprise Group Symposium**: The cotton planting area this year is 1.08 million mu, slightly increasing. The expected yield per mu has a small increase. The lint percentage may be 1 - 2 points lower, but the quality indicators are better than last year. The expected acquisition price of hand - picked cotton for wadding is 16,200 - 16,500 yuan/ton [67][68] 3.4.3 September 10th - Tumushuke → Alar - **A State - owned Textile Enterprise under a Division**: It has a current spinning capacity of 400,000 spindles, producing 24S and high - end yarns. The inventory of cotton yarn is about 1,000 tons, mainly sold in Xinjiang. The processing cost of 60s yarn is about 7,200 yuan, and the production profit is negative after including depreciation and financial costs [72][74][76] - **A Division's Enterprise Group**: The cotton planting area in the division is stable at 2 million mu, and the expected yield per mu is 460 - 470 kg. The expected acquisition price of seed cotton is about 6 yuan/kg. The enterprise is conservative in acquisition and uses hedging strategies. It is optimistic about the market next year [78][82][85] 3.4.4 September 11th - Alar → Shaya → Xinhe - **Alar Economic Development Zone Symposium**: The surrounding textile mills in Alar are operating well, but the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is not obvious. The current textile capacity in Xinjiang is about 34 million spindles. The "Bing 9 Articles" policy provides subsidies for building factories and equipment in southern Xinjiang's four divisions [86][89] - **Shaya Cotton Industry Company**: The planting area in Shaya is 1.85 million mu, and the yield per mu is expected to be over 500 kg. The current price of cottonseed is 2.4 yuan/kg, and the pre - sale price is 2.3 yuan/kg. The enterprise is cautious in acquisition and follows large factories [95][96][98] - **Xinhe Cotton Industry Group Symposium**: The enterprise is a leading enterprise in Aksu. It believes that the acquisition price of seed cotton above 6.5 yuan/kg is risky, and it may fall below 6 yuan/kg in November [100][103] 3.4.5 September 12th - Tiemenguan → Korla - **Tiemenguan Textile Enterprise**: It will form a complete industrial chain from cotton to clothing. The current order volume is about 2,100 tons, and the inventory is about 560 tons. The enterprise uses more southern Xinjiang cotton, and the acquisition price may be slightly higher this year. The yarn market has limited downward space but lacks upward momentum [112][114][122]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - fiber industry is rated as "oscillating" [6] Core Viewpoints - The terminal textile and clothing market lacks highlights, but the downstream polyester yarn segment has increased its overall inventory level due to peak - season expectations. The high growth rate of exports has compensated for the lack of domestic demand. On the supply side, with the industry operating at a high capacity, there is limited room for further supply growth. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of short - fiber is limited. The absolute price is expected to mainly follow the fluctuations of polyester raw materials, and the processing fee may continue to fluctuate within a range. When the short - fiber inventory is at a low level and the spot circulation is temporarily tight, opportunities to expand short - fiber processing fees on dips or engage in positive spreads between contract months can be considered [4][65][66] Summary by Directory 1. Third - quarter Short - fiber Market Review - Short - fiber prices continued to be cost - driven, following polyester raw materials to rise and fall twice. The futures price of the main contract closed slightly lower than at the end of the second quarter. The spot processing margin briefly increased after operations such as joint production cuts and contract reductions by factories, then quickly gave back the gains, and later rebounded slightly with limited overall fluctuations [12] 2. Supply: The Industry Maintains High - level Operation but Lacks Elasticity for Further Growth - In the third quarter, the short - fiber operating rate first decreased and then steadily increased. From July to August 2025, the total short - fiber output was 1.442 million tons, with the average monthly output increasing by 3.5% compared to the second quarter. In mid - June, facing uncertainties such as geopolitical risks and the dilemma of high costs and low processing margins, short - fiber factories reached a resolution to jointly cut production by 15% in July and reduce contract volumes by 20%. In July, the short - fiber operating rate dropped from around 95% to below 90%, but since August, with the improvement of demand and inventory reduction, the operating rate gradually increased. By mid - September, it returned to around 95% [14] - Looking forward to the fourth quarter, short - fiber supply is expected to remain at a high level but lack incremental elasticity. New production capacity in the fourth quarter is unlikely to achieve effective output within the year. As of now, there is only an annual capacity increase of 340,000 tons in 2025, a 3.6% increase from last year. Although there is a probability of a 300,000 - ton/year device of Suqian Yida being put into operation, it is difficult to release significant incremental output within the year. The operating rate of existing production capacity has limited room for further increase. In 2025, the short - fiber industry's operating rate has been maintained at a relatively high level of 85% - 95%, about 5 - 10 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. Currently, the industry's operating rate is around 95%, and the operating rate of cotton - type short - fiber has soared to around 98%, leaving little room for further improvement [17][20] 3. Domestic Demand: The Peak Season Starts Slowly and Shows a Disappointing Outlook 3.1 Terminal Textile and Clothing Domestic Demand Remains Stable, and Export Growth Turns Negative - From January to August, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing, footwear, and textile products were 940 billion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The consumer's consumption willingness continued to recover slowly, and the terminal consumer market maintained stable growth, but the overall growth rate was moderate, and the demand potential still needed to be further released. In terms of exports, from January to August 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 197.27 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, textile exports were 94.51 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, and clothing exports were 102.76 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Affected by factors such as the increase in US tariffs, the growth rate of textile and clothing exports to the US turned negative, and the cumulative year - on - year decline showed an expanding trend. In addition, the export growth rate to some countries such as Europe and ASEAN also slowed down in the third quarter [28][34][36] 3.2 The Peak Season in the Weaving Segment Starts Slowly - This year, textile enterprises' orders have been weak, inventory has accumulated, competition has intensified, profit margins have declined significantly, and production enthusiasm has been suppressed. Although the "Golden September" has arrived, the improvement in the operating rate of the weaving segment is far less than that in the same period of 2023 and 2024, and it is also in the low - level range of the same period in the past five years. The transition from the off - season to the peak season in the terminal market has been significantly delayed, and the lackluster peak - season performance is emerging [44][45] 3.3 Downstream Yarn Mills Still Face Finished - Product Inventory Pressure, but Raw - Material Inventory Has Increased Quarter - on - Quarter - Terminal demand has not fully started, and yarn mills have faced slow inventory reduction due to weak downstream procurement. The low processing fee of pure polyester yarn has also restricted the operating enthusiasm of yarn mills. However, since the third quarter, the profit and inventory pressure in the downstream yarn segment have improved quarter - on - quarter. With peak - season expectations, the overall inventory level has increased, and short - fiber inventory has been smoothly reduced [50][52] 4. Exports: The Upward Shift of the Industrial Chain's Exports and the Continued Strong Growth of Short - fiber Exports - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of uncombed polyester short - fiber (HS code 55032000) was 1.0965 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.5%. The reasons for the high - growth rate of exports are the obvious cost advantage of raw materials and the upward shift of the industrial chain's exports. It is estimated that the export increment in the first eight months has digested about 63.6% of the new short - fiber production. The export market has shared a significant sales pressure in the context of lackluster domestic demand [58] 5. Investment Suggestions - Given the fundamentals, as the terminal textile and clothing market lacks highlights, the downstream polyester yarn segment still faces finished - product inventory pressure, but the overall inventory level has increased due to peak - season expectations. The high growth rate of exports has compensated for the lack of domestic demand. On the supply side, with the industry operating at a high capacity, there is limited room for further supply growth. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of short - fiber is limited. The absolute price is expected to mainly follow the fluctuations of polyester raw materials, and the processing fee may continue to fluctuate within a range. When the short - fiber inventory is at a low level and the spot circulation is temporarily tight, opportunities to expand short - fiber processing fees on dips or engage in positive spreads between contract months can be considered [4][65][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Shanghai Lead is "Volatility", with a price range of [16,500, 17,800], featuring narrow - range fluctuations and occasional small - to medium - scale market movements [3]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the shortage of lead concentrates and waste batteries will intensify. Domestic demand is expected to improve periodically under the background of policy - boosted consumption, while export demand may continue to be under pressure. The oscillation center of Shanghai Lead may move up, and there may be small - to medium - scale upward trends as consumption improves. The volatility may increase compared to Q3, and it is safer to take long positions at low prices. Attention should be paid to the production strategies of large enterprises [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Lead Price Review - In July, lead prices rose first and then fell. Shanghai Lead increased significantly due to anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and pre - trading of improved demand, but domestic demand was later disproven, and anti - cut - throat competition had limited impact on basic non - ferrous commodities. LME Lead was pressured by a stronger US dollar, and both domestic and overseas lead prices dropped back to pre - increase levels [6]. - In August, the 0 - 3 cash of the outer market remained deeply in contango. The domestic lead market had weak supply and demand. Falling lead prices and tight raw materials intensified the pressure on the operating rate of secondary smelters, and demand was even weaker. With low capital attention, both domestic and overseas lead prices fluctuated at low levels [6]. - In September, the bottom - building of lead prices ended. As the traditional peak season approached, the raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream battery factories continued to decline, and lead prices rose slightly in advance. With the approaching of the double - festival holiday, downstream enterprises stocked up in advance, and market transactions improved as lead prices rose. The fundamental support pushed the operating center of lead prices up from 16,800 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Supply Overseas - In Q3 2025, overseas lead concentrate production was lower than expected. Although project profits were sufficient, factors such as lower - than - expected output from sample mining enterprises, irreversible decline in mine grades, long - term impact of geological factors, time required for equipment renewal, and increased probability of La Nina led to the annual overseas lead concentrate increment dropping from 700,000 to 0 tons. There is no obvious expectation of improvement in Q4 [7][11]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lead concentrate output was 1.098 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, mainly due to the output release of new projects such as Yinzhushan and Kangjiawan. The main reasons for the decline in TC were the high operating rate of primary smelters, the reflection of the supply - demand relationship of high - grade concentrates in TC, and the weak bargaining power in spot transactions due to fewer long - term contracts signed by smelters. In Q4, Huoshaoyun may release marginal increments, and the domestic mine increment in 2025 is expected to reach +1.2 million tons. The import of Red Dog lead concentrate will share tariff costs equally between domestic and foreign parties, and the import of lead concentrates may decline seasonally in Q4. With primary smelters maintaining a relatively high operating rate, TC may continue to be under pressure [20]. 3. Primary Lead Production Overseas - From January to August, the cumulative overseas primary lead output was 864,000 tons (YoY - 1.4%). Due to tight raw materials, the reduction in overseas primary lead production increased. There was a significant reduction in Kazzinc 3rd Party under Glencore, and the incremental production from restarted and ramping - up projects was not obvious [24]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic primary lead output was 2.542 million tons (YoY + 8.2%), mainly due to the restoration of raw material supply, the widening of the price difference between refined and secondary lead, and the increase in production profits (including by - products such as small metals). The operating rate of primary lead in Q3 was generally at a high level. Overall, the domestic surplus (+193,000 tons) can still cover the overseas reduction (-13,000 tons). However, smelting profits are approaching the break - even point and declining, and with the downward pressure on TC in the future, smelting profits may be under pressure. The production of primary lead in Q4 may decline quarter - on - quarter [24]. 4. Secondary Lead Production - From January to August, the cumulative secondary refined lead output was 2.08 million tons (YoY - 3%), and the operating rate of secondary lead remained at a low level of 30%, which may drop below 25% in September. The production cuts of secondary lead smelters mostly follow the raw material consumption rhythm rather than profit changes. The scrap battery scrap volume in Q3 did not improve significantly. Although recyclers sold off stocks multiple times during the lead price decline, it had limited effect on replenishing smelters' raw material inventories. As lead prices rebounded, the profits of secondary lead smelters in October were restored, and the operating rate may increase [44]. - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Q4 may increase quarter - on - quarter but will still be highly volatile. The replacement demand may be stimulated by trade - in subsidies, new national standards, and consumer festivals after October, but the annual output is expected to be lower than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate is revised down to - 2%. After years of continuous losses, the cash flow of many secondary lead plants has been under pressure for two and a half years, and attention should be paid to the possible exit of secondary lead production capacity [44]. 5. Initial Demand - In Q3, lead demand was generally weak. In the battery field, the demand for new automotive batteries was neutral to weak, and the replacement demand was significantly lower than expected. The traditional peak seasons for electric two - wheelers and tricycles did not materialize. The export demand for batteries was also weakened by tariffs and anti - dumping measures, while the demand in the energy storage field continued to perform well [46]. - The participation of large enterprises in the futures market has decreased, and there is a phenomenon of buying on rising prices. The finished - product inventory of large enterprises has been transferred to dealers, and the finished - product inventory has undergone a round of destocking. The production orders of lead - carbon battery manufacturers in the energy storage field are abundant [48]. 6. Terminal Demand Electric Two - Wheelers - From January to August, the cumulative production of electric bicycles in Jiangsu and Tianjin increased by 101.5% and 14.7% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate expanded compared to the first half of the year. The cumulative production of two - wheeled and three - wheeled motorcycles increased by 10.6% and 4.4% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate narrowed compared to the first half of the year. The replacement demand in Q3 was weak. In Q4, the replacement demand is expected to strengthen periodically due to factors such as trade - in policies, upcoming Double Eleven promotions, and the implementation of new national standards [54]. Automobiles - From January to August, the domestic automobile production was 21.027 million vehicles (YoY + 12.6%), with new energy vehicles increasing by 37.1% and fuel vehicles decreasing by 2%. The export increased by 13.8% year - on - year, but the export growth rate may slow down in Q4. Considering the impact of lithium substitution for lead, the annual lead consumption growth rate in the automotive field is revised down to - 1.8% [59]. Energy Storage - Lead - carbon batteries are still irreplaceable in the data center energy storage field. As of the end of September, the production schedules of some energy storage manufacturers have reached March next year, and the demand for lead - carbon batteries continues to grow strongly. The lead consumption growth rate in this sector is revised up from 8% to 10% [59]. 7. Export Demand - From 2020 - 2023, the average annual compound growth rate of lead battery exports was 10%. From January to August, the export of starting - type batteries increased by 0.2% year - on - year, while the export of other types decreased by 11.5% year - on - year, and the decline further expanded. The main reasons are price ratio suppression, anti - dumping measures, and weak non - automotive demand (destocking) [64]. - There is no obvious driver for the recovery of overseas lead consumption, and the domestic secondary production cost support is still strong. The internal - external price ratio is difficult to repair significantly. With the influence of trade protectionism and battery manufacturers going global, exports may still be under pressure, and the annual export demand growth rate is revised down from flat to - 1% [64]. 8. Inventory - The LME lead inventory is still at a seasonal high even after destocking, and the 0 - 3 spot has been in deep contango for a long time [69]. - In Q3, the lead elements concentrated in the initial downstream and terminal consumption fields were slowly consumed, and the lead elements in the intermediate links of the industrial chain have decreased. However, the medium - to - long - term trend still depends on future demand. Before the double - festivals, downstream enterprises stocked up normally, and potential delivery risks should be警惕 under low inventory levels [69]. - The import window for lead ingots may open intermittently in Q4. Based on this expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to the range - trading opportunities of the internal - external price ratio [69]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance - The revised balance sheet shows that the annual shortage level has decreased. The supply of primary lead may face a marginal tightening of imported ores in Q4, and TC has downward pressure, with a possibility of limited production cuts by smelters. The replacement demand in the secondary lead sector may improve periodically in Q4, but waste batteries will still be in short supply. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters may improve quarter - on - quarter but will remain highly volatile [71]. - The annual terminal demand growth rate is expected to turn negative, mainly due to the possible over - expected lithium substitution for lead, the pressure on both domestic sales and exports of automobiles, the dependence of electric vehicle replacement demand on policy stimuli, the strong consumption in the energy storage field, and the continued pressure on exports. The demand in Q4 may improve periodically [72].

Report Overview - Report Title: How Will the Balance Evolve under High Supply and Demand Elasticity after the Supply Shock? - Research Institute: Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute - Date: September 2025 - Analyst: Chen Yixuan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short term, the lithium market presents a combination of strong reality and weak expectations, with limited de - stocking and a surplus pattern. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. In the long term, although the static balance remains in surplus, the high - growth demand will ease the apparent inventory build - up pressure in 2026, and the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory Q3 Market Review - Since the end of June, lithium prices have rebounded rapidly from the bottom to 90,000 yuan, then fluctuated after a spike. From late June to mid - July, demand expectation correction drove the price to stabilize and rebound; from mid - July to mid - August, supply - side risks led to a rapid price increase; since mid - August, after the market priced in the shutdown of Jianxiaowo, the price corrected to account for the increased supply stimulated by high prices [2][5]. Supply - Side Uncertainty - Since mid - July, mining license risks in Jiangxi and Qinghai have intensified. The shutdown of some projects raised concerns about domestic supply risks, and the expiration of Jianxiaowo's mining license in August triggered market sentiment. However, since late August, the resumption of previously shut - down projects has cooled market enthusiasm [6][8]. Supply Pressure and Inventory - High prices have accelerated the manifestation of supply pressure. After the price rebound, the output of spodumene processing increased rapidly, offsetting the reduction in mica supply. Since late August, the generation of warehouse receipts has accelerated. Currently, domestic ore inventory is still at a moderately high level, and imported ore flows in stably, with new projects expanding production capacity, so there is no significant constraint on lithium salt supply [9][11][12]. Lithium Salt Trade and Resource Output - In terms of lithium salt shipments, South American shipments are in line with capacity ramp - up expectations, and Indonesia has brought marginal increments. The regional premium has changed the trade flow of lithium salts. The revised global lithium resource supply in 2025 is expected to increase by 270,000 tons LCE year - on - year, and the impact of mining license disruptions is limited. In 2026, the project reserve is still sufficient, with an expected year - on - year increase of 300,000 tons LCE, but some mica capacity may face supply uncertainty [16][19][22]. Terminal Demand - In the power market, new - energy passenger vehicle sales in China, Europe, and the US from January to August increased by 36%, 28%, and 4% year - on - year respectively. The new - energy commercial vehicle market is a highlight, with sales in China from January to August increasing by 66% year - on - year. The domestic and overseas energy - storage markets have continuously exceeded expectations, with high growth in domestic large - scale energy - storage project bids and a significant increase in overseas exports [30][36][41]. Market Balance - In the short term, the market is in a de - stocking phase, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The fundamental situation supports prices in the short term but cannot drive prices up independently. In the long term, from 2025 to 2026, the global lithium resource market remains in surplus, but the apparent inventory build - up in 2026 may narrow, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will decrease [48][51][55]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Given the strong reality and weak expectations, limited de - stocking, and the expectation of project resumption, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. Long - term: As the demand growth will ease the inventory build - up pressure in 2026, the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - 4Q25 macro - tone is generally favorable for precious metals, but price volatility is expected to increase. Market expectations of interest - rate cut rhythm, economic outlook interpretations, and supply bottlenecks of platinum and palladium will drive price fluctuations and asset performance differentiation [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, the contradiction lies in whether macro - level benefits can offset micro - level demand weakness and supply contradictions. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely between the bottom range provided by macro - level easing expectations and the top range formed by industrial fundamentals pressure [2][45]. - The core drivers of black commodities will revolve around policy uncertainty and demand effectiveness. Prices are supported in the early stage but face significant downward risks in the middle and later stages of the quarter [3][57]. - The core contradiction of energy and chemical commodities is whether macro - level easing expectations can offset the fundamental pressure at the bottom of the industrial cycle. 4Q25 will be a bottom - grinding process [4][76]. - For agricultural products, export - country control measures may create artificial supply shortages and upward price risks, while import - country procurement rhythms, quota management, and domestic substitution policies form downward price pressure. La Nina - induced supply contraction expectations and current supply pressures and weak global macro - demand will drive price trends [5][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks after the Interest - Rate Cut "Boot Drops" - **Monetary Policy Path Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut in September started a new round of easing, but the rhythm, depth, and end - point of the subsequent path are uncertain. Hawkish risks (slower - than - expected rate cuts) will push up the US dollar index and real yields of US Treasuries, negatively affecting precious metals. Dovish risks (faster - than - expected rate cuts) will be a major positive for all precious metals [13][23][26]. - **Economic "Landing" Form Risk**: The market will sway among "soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery scenarios in 4Q25. A "soft landing" is beneficial for the precious - metal sector as a whole. A "hard landing" will lead to significant differentiation within the sector, with gold rising and silver, platinum, and palladium potentially falling. Premature recovery trading may cause gold to face pressure while silver and platinum may benefit [29][30][31]. - **Supply - Side and Geopolitical Risk**: Supply - side risks mainly affect platinum and palladium due to their concentrated production in South Africa and Russia. Any production interruption in these countries can cause price surges. Geopolitical risks will increase the volatility of gold and silver, with gold having a more sustainable safe - haven premium [33][35]. - **Structural Market Dynamic Change Risk**: The sustainability of central - bank gold - buying demand is in doubt. The "platinum - for - palladium" substitution in the automotive industry is a long - term negative for palladium and a positive for platinum. Speculative funds in the precious - metal market are profit - seeking and volatile, which can amplify price fluctuations [37][42][44]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Level Benefits and Industrial Weakness Risks - **Macro - Economic Narrative Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut provides support for non - ferrous metals, but different economic scenarios ("soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery) will have different impacts on non - ferrous metals. A "soft landing" is beneficial for copper, aluminum, and lithium to different extents. A "hard landing" will hit all industrial non - ferrous metals. Premature recovery trading will bring a "Davis double - click" for copper and aluminum [45][46][47]. - **Sino - Foreign Policy - Level Risk**: China's "anti - involution" policies may affect the supply of polysilicon, industrial silicon, and potentially copper and aluminum. Trade frictions, political instability in Guinea, and lithium - mine supply risks in Africa also pose threats to non - ferrous metals [50][52]. - **Supply - Side Bottleneck Risk**: Global copper - mine supply is tight, which is a strong support for copper prices. The resumption time of some lithium mines in China is uncertain, which creates two - way risks for lithium prices [53][55]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Policy Game and Demand Downturn Risks - **Downstream Demand Structural Differentiation and Total Slowdown Risk**: The real - estate industry's weakness suppresses the demand for construction steel and the entire black - commodity chain. The manufacturing industry provides support for plate - type steel, but its demand may face challenges in 4Q25. Infrastructure investment may also slow down, affecting the demand for construction steel [58][59][60]. - **Supply - Side Policy Risk**: The implementation of the "flat - control" policy for crude - steel production is uncertain. Strict implementation will benefit steel prices but harm raw - material prices, while non - implementation or under - implementation will lead to supply - surplus pressure on steel prices [66]. - **Raw - Material Supply - Side Structural Risk**: Iron - ore supply is expected to increase seasonally, which may lead to price declines. Coking - coal supply, especially for high - quality coking coal, is tight, which supports coking - coal and coke prices and squeezes steel - mill profits [70][71]. - **Inventory and Market Structural Risk**: Steel inventories face a cyclical inflection point. If post - holiday demand is weak, it will lead to passive inventory accumulation and price declines. Iron - ore port inventories may accumulate, which will pressure iron - ore prices [74]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals: Long - Term Capacity Clearance and Prolonged Bottom - Grinding Risks - **Geopolitical and Supply - Side Seasonal Risk**: Geopolitical risks, such as the situation in the Red Sea and OPEC+ production policies, can affect oil prices. In winter, natural - gas supply shortages in Iran may increase methanol prices, and LPG supply may also be affected [77][81]. - **Inventory Level and Industrial - Chain Internal Profit Risk**: The global crude - oil market is expected to enter a stocking phase in 4Q25, which may put downward pressure on oil prices. High inventories of some chemicals, such as methanol and LPG, will suppress their prices. Profit - distribution contradictions in the chemical industrial chain are intensifying [83][84][87]. - **Structural Over - Capacity and Industry Profit - Cycle Risk**: The chemical industry is in a long - term over - capacity situation. Polyolefins, methanol, and LPG are severely affected. The process of capacity clearance is slow, and the low - price, low - profit industry pattern will persist [89][90]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Risks under Policy and Weather Interference - **Key Countries' Policy Risk**: Export - control measures of major agricultural - product exporters can cause price surges, while import - country policies, such as China's procurement and quota management, can limit price increases [92]. - **Terminal Demand Weakness Risk**: Global economic slowdown weakens consumer purchasing power, affecting the demand for cotton, oils, sugars, and feed raw materials. China's internal demand also has structural risks, and changes in bio - fuel policies can affect the demand for corn and vegetable oils [98][100][103]. - **Global Supply Cycle Risk**: The concentrated listing of Northern - Hemisphere autumn - harvest crops brings short - term supply pressure. The long - term supply situation is affected by policies and climate [91]. - **Global Climate Risk**: The evolution towards La Nina poses risks to the upcoming Southern - Hemisphere sowing season and Southeast - Asian production [91].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic glass industry are in a strong game, with the downstream suppressing the price increase sentiment through production cuts and holidays. The price increase expectation for October is likely to fail, and the price of photovoltaic glass may remain stable [2][6] - The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased from a decline last week. The supply side has an upward trend, while the demand side has decreased due to component manufacturers reducing purchase orders and taking holidays [1][6] - Due to the weakening cost side, the profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry continued to improve slightly last week, with the current industry gross profit margin at about 3.09% [1][6] Summary by Directory 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: Last week, the industry's supply remained stable, with no changes in production lines or kiln blockages. The domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,780 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.52%, also unchanged. However, due to the price increase expectation released in the middle of this month, many photovoltaic glass enterprises have started planning new capacity launches [6][11] - Demand: The plan of many photovoltaic glass enterprises to launch new capacity has triggered the resistance of downstream component factories. Recently, downstream component factories have started to reduce purchase orders and have successively stopped production and taken holidays since last week, resulting in a reduction in the demand for photovoltaic glass [6][19] - Inventory: The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased from a decline last week. On one hand, the supply side of photovoltaic glass has an upward trend, and on the other hand, the demand side has decreased due to component manufacturers reducing purchase orders and taking holidays [6][22] - Profitability: Due to the weakening cost side, the profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry continued to improve slightly last week, with the current industry gross profit margin at about 3.09% [6][25] 2. Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data Overview 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of September 26, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass in China was 13 yuan per square meter, unchanged from the previous week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was 21 yuan per square meter, also unchanged from the previous week. The market is expected to enter the new - month negotiation stage this week [7] 2.2 Supply Side - Last week, the industry's supply remained stable, with no changes in production lines or kiln blockages. The domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,780 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.52%, also unchanged. Due to the price increase expectation released in the middle of this month, many photovoltaic glass enterprises have started planning new capacity launches [11] - The document also shows the production line changes of domestic photovoltaic glass since 2025, including cold repairs and ignitions of various enterprises in different regions [18] 2.3 Demand Side - The plan of many photovoltaic glass enterprises to launch new capacity has triggered the resistance of downstream component factories. Recently, downstream component factories have started to reduce purchase orders and have successively stopped production and taken holidays since last week, resulting in a reduction in the demand for photovoltaic glass [19] 2.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased from a decline last week. The supply side has an upward trend, while the demand side has decreased due to component manufacturers reducing purchase orders and taking holidays [22] 2.5 Cost - Profit Side - Due to the weakening cost side, the profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry continued to improve slightly last week, with the current industry gross profit margin at about 3.09% [25] 2.6 Trade Side - From January to August 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 16.5% compared with the same period in 2024. The export of photovoltaic glass remains booming, and the overseas installation demand is relatively strong [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The gold market has strong performance, with prices hitting new highs, and the silver increase is greater than that of gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. The short - term gold price is expected to run at a high level with increased volatility [3][14]. - The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building. After adjustment, the bond market valuation is gradually reasonable. The bond market will gradually desensitize to negative factors and return to fundamental trading [16]. - The demand for动力煤is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [4][19]. - The iron ore price is expected to continue the box - type shock, and the trend market needs to wait. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. - The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [29]. - The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [33]. - The coking coal and coke market shows different trends between spot and futures before the festival. The spot price rises due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures are worried about post - festival demand and show a shock trend [34]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. - The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [40][41]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. - The red date futures price has risen sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [47]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. - The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [52]. - The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [54]. - The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [56]. - The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [59]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [62]. - The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [64]. - The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. - The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [67]. - The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [68]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [70]. - The container freight index fluctuates greatly before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [72][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is cautious about the prospect of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman believes that decisive action is needed to cut interest rates. The US 8 - month core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12][13][14]. - The gold price fluctuated and closed higher on Friday, hitting a new high. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals were strong, and silver rose more than gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 411.5 billion yuan on the same day [16]. - Some institutions may choose to hold cash for the holiday due to concerns about the new regulations on public bond funds. However, the impact is limited. The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building, and it is recommended to take a shock approach in the short - term [16][17]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (动力煤) - Some coal mines stopped or reduced production at the end of the month, and the supply decreased slightly. The downstream only maintained rigid demand procurement, and the port coal price stagnated and declined this week [18]. - The demand is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [19]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The construction of the Simandou project has made breakthroughs, and the equipment production and shipment are advancing simultaneously [20]. - The iron ore price is in a shock market, and it is expected to continue the box - type shock. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From September 1 to 25, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [23]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the week of September 24, the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.1039 million tons, a decrease of 5.44% from the previous week [25]. - In the 25/26 sugar - making season, 3 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started operation. The sugar production in Xinjiang is expected to be about 700,000 tons [26]. - The market expects that the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil will increase by 15% year - on - year in the first half of September. The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [28][29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The CCI in India may purchase cotton without limit due to the low cotton price. The new cotton in India has been on the market, and the cotton price in the northern region has dropped by about 5 - 6% in the past two weeks [30]. - The export signing volume of US cotton decreased in the week of September 12 - 18, and the shipment volume increased. The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [32][33]. 2.6 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. Before the festival, the coking coal market showed different trends between spot and futures. The spot price rose due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures were worried about post - festival demand and showed a shock trend [34]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (豆粕) - It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume in China will be 9.42 million tons in October, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans is expected to be 9.49 million tons, 8.5 million tons, and 8 million tons from October to December respectively [35][36]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. 2.8 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased to 2.42 million tons. The inventory of five major varieties decreased slightly this week, and the demand for building materials increased seasonally, but the demand elasticity is not optimistic. The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [39][40][41]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on September 22 were - 55 yuan/ton, - 179 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and - 82 yuan/ton respectively [42]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. 2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of September 25, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 26.01 days, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous week [44]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. 2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market fluctuated slightly. The futures price of red dates rose sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [45][47]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Times stopped production on September 25 and is expected to resume production in November. Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project started trial production, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially put into operation [48][49][50]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.63/ton. The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [51][52]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $39.84/ton. The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [53][54]. 2.15 Energy Chemical Industry (PX) - A refinery in the northeast plans to shut down its reforming unit for about 10 days starting from September 27. The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [55][56]. 2.16 Energy Chemical Industry (PTA) - The negotiation in the PTA spot market weakened, and the basis loosened. The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [57][59]. 2.17 Energy Chemical Industry (Caustic Soda) - On September 26, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [60][62]. 2.18 Energy Chemical Industry (Paper Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [63][64]. 2.19 Energy Chemical Industry (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market was weakly sorted. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. 2.20 Energy Chemical Industry (Styrene) - The weekly consumption of styrene's main downstream products decreased by 4.46% from the previous week. The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [66][67]. 2.21 Energy Chemical Industry (Soda Ash) - On September 26, the price of soda ash in the South China market remained stable. The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [67][68]. 2.22 Energy Chemical Industry (Float Glass) - On September 26, the price of float glass in the Shahe market increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [69][70]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight) - The EU's shipping fuel regulations have "killed" the demand for methanol - powered ships. Before the festival, the container freight index fluctuated greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [71][72][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market style is differentiated. The Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 rose, while the CSI 1000 fell. The electronics sector contributed the main gains to the indices, while the food and beverage, non - banking, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors contributed the main losses to the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 respectively [3]. - The trading volume of each futures variety decreased compared to the previous period. The basis of IH and IF strengthened, while that of IC and IM weakened, with IC and IM maintaining a deep discount. It is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue, and opportunities for inter - period positive arbitrage should be considered when the discount converges driven by market sentiment. The roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4]. - For the bond futures this week, the IRR of bond futures has declined, and the inter - period spread has fluctuated strongly. The interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, and high - duration varieties are recommended for hedging. The multi - factor timing strategy signal for futures is neutral, and the cross - variety arbitrage strategy signals for bond futures are also neutral [73]. - Last week, caustic soda and polysilicon had the largest declines among single - varieties, while gold, crude oil, and fuel oil, which were affected by external macro factors, had the largest increases. Most commodity factors gained positive returns last week, with value and volatility factors leading the gains, followed by price - volume trend and term structure factors. In the short term, factor and strategy returns may still face fluctuations [86]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Market style is differentiated, with different sectors contributing to index gains and losses [3]. - Trading volume of each variety decreased, and basis structures of different varieties showed different trends [4]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Basis Strategy - The current hedging demand in stock index futures is mainly short - side. It is expected that the deep discount of IC and IM will continue. Consider inter - period positive arbitrage when the discount converges, and recommend the long - near and short - far roll - over strategy [4]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Arbitrage Strategy - Inter - period arbitrage strategy: The net value fluctuated last week. The annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factors had returns of 0.1%, 0.1%, and - 0.1% respectively (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor mostly gave reverse - arbitrage signals [5]. - Cross - variety arbitrage strategy: The net value of the cross - variety timing synthetic strategy gained 0.9% last week. The latest signal recommends 100% long IC and short IF, and 100% long IC and short IM [6]. 3.4 Stock Index Futures Timing Strategy - Daily timing strategy: Each model generally gained last week. The single - factor equal - weight, OLS, and XGB models gained 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.2% respectively. The latest signals of the timing models show an enhanced short - side signal, with different views on different indices [7]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures Roll - over Return Tracking - Historical roll - over returns of different indices (Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) from 2018 to 2025 and in the recent month and week are presented, showing different trends [27]. 3.6 Bond Futures Strategy - Basis and inter - period: The IRR of bond futures declined this week, and the inter - period spread fluctuated strongly. The positive arbitrage space is limited, and it is expected to move in a range [73]. - Interest rate timing and hedging: The interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, and high - duration varieties are recommended for hedging [73]. - Futures timing strategy: The multi - factor timing strategy signal is neutral, with different factors having different views [73]. - Futures cross - variety arbitrage strategy: The signals of the bond futures cross - variety arbitrage strategies TS - T and T - TL are neutral [73]. 3.7 Commodity Factor and Strategy Performance - Commodity factor performance: Last week, caustic soda and polysilicon had large declines, while gold and crude oil had large increases. Most commodity factors gained positive returns, with value and volatility factors leading the gains [86]. - Tracking strategy performance: Different strategies (CWFT, C_frontnext & Short Trend, etc.) have different annualized returns, Sharpe ratios, Calmar ratios, and maximum drawdowns, and their performances in the recent week and this year also vary [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is currently in a phase of oscillating to find the bottom, and the probability of continuous adjustment is low. After the adjustment, the bond market valuation has gradually become reasonable. With limited incremental negatives such as policy efforts and a stronger stock market in the future, and the monetary policy remaining in a balanced and slightly loose state, the bond market will gradually become desensitized to negatives. It is expected that the market will start to focus on the fundamentals in late October [2]. - In the short - term, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker due to the fewer trading days next week and some institutions' potential concerns about the implementation of new regulations on public bond funds during the holiday. However, the impact of institutions holding cash for the holiday is relatively limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From September 22 - 28, treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Monday, the bond market sentiment was generally positive due to the central bank's 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, and the bond futures closed higher. On Tuesday, concerns about changes in public fund fees suppressed the bond market, and the decline of bond futures widened in the late session. On Wednesday, without the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, the tightening of the capital side and the rising stock market led to stronger short - selling intentions of institutions, and bond futures oscillated downward. On Thursday, the bond market fell sharply in the morning due to strong equity performance, and rebounded in the afternoon. On Friday, with a calm market and a weakening stock market, bond futures rose slightly. As of September 26, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.358, 105.630, 107.755, and 114.880 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.006, + 0.050, + 0.075, and - 0.280 yuan compared to last weekend [1][11]. 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. The cross - quarter capital side has tightened, and new regulations on public funds have suppressed bond market sentiment. The yield curve continues to steepen. Although some institutions may hold cash for the holiday due to concerns about new regulations on public bond funds, the impact is limited. The bond market is in an oscillating bottom - finding phase, and the probability of continuous adjustment is low. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating approach in the short - term for the unilateral strategy, wait for market sentiment to improve to close the short - hedging strategy, and moderately focus on the strategy of steepening the curve [2][12][13]. 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 106 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 579.731 billion yuan and a net financing of - 6.239 billion yuan, a change of - 84.808 billion yuan and - 472.664 billion yuan compared to last week respectively. 78 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 196.051 billion yuan and a net financing of 122.461 billion yuan, a change of + 7.532 billion yuan and + 91.606 billion yuan compared to last week respectively. 450 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 790.970 billion yuan and a net financing of - 178.240 billion yuan, a change of - 188.540 billion yuan and - 307.70 billion yuan compared to last week respectively [23][24]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields generally increased. As of September 26, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.52%, 1.63%, 1.88%, and 2.22% respectively, a change of + 3.07, + 1.70, + 0.20, and + 2.40 basis points compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, while the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds also increased [29][30]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures oscillated downward. As of September 26, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.344, 105.530, 107.670, and 114.260 yuan respectively, a change of - 0.014, - 0.100, - 0.085, and - 0.620 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 35,819, 71,161, 107,596, and 148,495 lots respectively, a change of - 1,326, - 6,772, - 16,083, and - 11,225 lots compared to last weekend. The open interests were 76,284, 148,793, 246,583, and 170,109 lots respectively, a change of - 80, + 3,357, + 2,011, and + 2,829 lots compared to last weekend [35][36][40]. 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The capital side was generally loose, the market oscillated, and the futures basis generally oscillated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of the main contracts of each variety was between 1.3% - 1.4%, and the current certificate of deposit rate was between 1.6% - 1.7%, so the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was relatively limited. The basis and IRR of TL fluctuated greatly, but trading opportunities were difficult to grasp. The short - hedging strategy should be held for now [43]. 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of September 26, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2512 - 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were + 0.086, + 0.120, + 0.345, and + 0.340 yuan respectively, a change of + 0.006, - 0.020, - 0.020, and 0.000 yuan compared to last weekend [46]. 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week (excluding the 28th), the central bank conducted 2.4674 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of MLF operations. With 1.8268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities and 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF maturities, the net investment was 940.6 billion yuan. As of September 26, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.55%, 1.53%, 1.32%, and 1.50% respectively, a change of + 2.76, + 4.25, - 14.00, and + 1.30 basis points compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 7.27 trillion yuan, 0.10 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 75.72%, slightly lower than last week [51][53][56]. 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds increased. As of September 26, the US dollar index rose 0.55% to 98.1926 compared to last weekend. The yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds was 4.20%, an increase of 6 basis points compared to last weekend. The spread between Chinese and US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 232.1 basis points. The US manufacturing PMI index in September declined, and Powell said that the uncertainty of inflation trends remains high, and he also thought that the valuation of the US stock market is quite high [60]. 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices all declined this week. As of September 26, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, the Metal Index, and the Energy and Chemical Index were 3628.85, 6387.58, and 1663.68 points respectively, a change of - 3.80, - 24.08, and - 0.99 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of September 26, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 19.42, 5.08, and 6.96 yuan/kg respectively, a change of - 0.06, + 0.10, and + 0.11 yuan/kg compared to last weekend [63]. 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Adopt an oscillating approach in the short - term [64].