美债风险压制权益表现，中国小微盘高估风 险仍存 周度报告——股指期货 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a北ry]证 50 回调风险加大 股 指 期 货 本周（05.19-05.23）以美元计价的全球股市收跌。MSCI 全球指 数跌 1.42%，其中前沿市场（+2.00%）>新兴市场（-0.12%）> 前沿市场（-1.57%）。南非股指涨 2.36%领跑全球，美国股市跌 2.62%全球表现最差。中国权益分市场看，港股>A 股>中概股。 A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 11735 亿元，环比上周（12664 亿元) 缩量 929 亿元。A 股指数中仅深证 50、微盘股指数小幅收涨。 北证 50 指数则大幅下跌 3.68%。本周 A 股中信一级行业中共 9 个上涨（上周 21 个），21 个下跌（上周 9 个）。领涨行业为综 合（+1.93%），跌幅最大的行业为综合金融（-4.79%）。利率方 面，本周 10Y 国债收益率上行，1Y 下行，利差扩大。ETF 资金 流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额本周减少 9 亿份，跟 踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额减少 2 亿份。跟踪中证 1000 的 ETF 份 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market lacks the power to break the situation and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamentals are favorable for the bond market in the long - term, but there is no basis for significant rises or falls in the short - term. The treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate narrowly. [2] - Strategies include being long - term bullish on the bond market but buying on dips in the short - term; steepening the curve in the long - term with a bumpy process; and the opportunity for futures cash - and - carry arbitrage is decreasing, and attention can be paid to the strategy of the basis returning to 0. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - **This Week's Trend Review**: From May 19th to May 25th, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly. Due to factors such as the balance of funds, economic data, and deposit rate adjustments, the yield curve showed different changes each day. As of May 23rd, the settlement prices of the 09 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased by 0.034, 0.150, 0.225, and 0.380 yuan respectively compared to last weekend. [13] - **Next Week's Outlook**: The news will be relatively calm. The market will focus on the changes in the capital side and market sentiment. The capital side is expected to be generally balanced. The market may bet on events such as the central bank restarting secondary - market treasury bond trading and the weakening of the May manufacturing PMI, but these trades are expected to be short - term. Treasury bond futures will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [2] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, 92 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 968.322 billion yuan and a net financing of 548.079 billion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds decreased, the net financing of local government bonds decreased slightly, and the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly. [21] - **Secondary Market**: Treasury bond yields showed a divergent trend. As of May 23rd, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.69, - 2.26, + 3.67, and + 0.45 basis points respectively compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y widened, while the spread of 30Y - 10Y narrowed. [26] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest**: Treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly. As of May 23rd, the settlement prices of the 09 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased compared to last weekend. The trading volumes and open interests of each variety changed to different extents this week. [34][38] - **Basis and IRR**: The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy has significantly decreased. The basis of each variety has started to rise, and the willingness of long - position participants has declined. In the future, the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy opportunity will gradually disappear, and the basis will return to a relatively normal level. [42] - **Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads**: As of May 23rd, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures decreased compared to last weekend. [45] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - The central bank's open - market full - caliber net investment was 1.2 trillion yuan this week. As of May 23rd, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week changed by + 0.15, - 5.14, - 8.90, and + 0.70 basis points respectively compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the overnight proportion was lower than last week. [52][54][56] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield increased slightly. As of May 23rd, the US dollar index fell 1.84% to 99.1231 compared to last weekend, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 8 basis points to 4.51%, and the 10Y China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 279.2 basis points. [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices all declined. As of May 23rd, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index decreased compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits changing slightly compared to last weekend. [66] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to buy on dips. [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices fell below $3300 due to factors such as the easing of geopolitical tensions, the alleviation of panic in the US and Japanese bond markets, and better - than - expected US economic data. Short - term market volatility is high, and there is a risk of correction, but the long - term view is bullish [1][13]. - For treasury bond futures, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and they are in a narrow - range oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the yield curve is expected to steepen, but now may not be the best time to directly implement this strategy. It is advisable to go long in the medium - term but choose the right time [2][15]. - The US dollar index may rebound in the short - term as US business confidence improved in May, but caution is still needed as the US economic trend remains unchanged [20]. - US stock index futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and the pressure from long - term interest rates [27]. - For various commodities, different trends are expected. For example, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term; corn prices are expected to rise; copper prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term; etc. [4][43][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Japan's core CPI in April rose 3.5% year - on - year, and the national CPI rose 3.6% year - on - year. The US 5 - month manufacturing and service PMI rebounded more than expected. Gold prices fell below $3300 due to multiple factors. Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of correction, while the long - term view is bullish [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation and a 154.5 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. In the short - term, treasury bond futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the yield curve is expected to steepen, but now may not be the best time to go long [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - US business confidence improved in May, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize. The US dollar index may rebound in the short - term [18][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - As of the end of March, loans to high - tech SMEs have grown at a rate of over 20% for three consecutive years. The North - Star 50 index's decline may signal a return to value for high - dividend and blue - chip assets. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [22][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 5 - month service and manufacturing PMI were better than expected. If tariffs decline, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. US stock index futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to concerns about the US government's debt [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US soybean exports were in line with expectations. Rain may slow down the sowing progress but benefit the sown soybeans. The price of domestic imported soybeans remained stable, and the spot price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [28][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Domestic cotton yarn prices rose, but demand followed up slowly. China's textile and clothing exports in April increased year - on - year. Cotton commercial inventory decreased rapidly, and there may be a supply shortage in the later stage. It is recommended to be cautiously optimistic about Zhengzhou cotton futures and pay attention to inventory and trade negotiations [31][34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Colombia imposed anti - dumping measures on Chinese welded pipes. Global crude steel production in April decreased year - on - year. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the decline rate slowed down. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to hold a light - position and wait and use a hedging strategy for spot [36][38]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production rate decreased, and inventory changed little. The starch sugar production rate increased. It is expected that the CS07 - C07 spread will remain in a low - level oscillation [40][41]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Heavy rain warnings were issued in some areas. North port corn inventory decreased significantly. Some hedging positions left the market, and the supply in the spot market is expected to increase. Corn prices are expected to rise [42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Wens Co., Ltd. will continue its share - repurchase plan. The pig futures market is mainly trading based on long - term production capacity and short - term de - stocking speed. It is recommended to take profit on short positions [44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru plans to set up a mining fund, and a new copper - gold porphyry system was discovered in Argentina. China's copper industry index decreased slightly. Copper prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [46][48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and domestic lead inventory decreased. The price of scrap batteries decreased, and the lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and look for low - buying opportunities in the medium - term [51][52]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the LME zinc spread was at a discount. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, and the medium - term view is to go short on rallies. It is recommended to pay attention to positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [53][55]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations increased in April. The average spot price of polysilicon decreased. It is recommended to focus on positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [56][58]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project is about to be put into operation. The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and short positions can be held [59][60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In March 2025, the global refined nickel supply was in surplus. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of high - nickel iron was active. It is expected that the main operating range of Shanghai nickel futures will be between 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. Short - term band trading and medium - term long - buying opportunities can be considered [61][62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwean lithium exporters are seeking to postpone the export tax. The supply of lithium carbonate is in surplus, and the cost support is weakening. The market is expected to remain unstable until the spot and downstream orders improve [63][65]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG production increased week - on - week, and port inventory decreased. The domestic LPG price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [66][68]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is oscillating in a narrow range. In 2025, the overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emission allowances is relatively loose, and the price is likely to be under pressure [69][70]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. European natural gas inventory is rising rapidly. The price of US natural gas is expected to oscillate upwards [71][73]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose steadily. The supply of caustic soda is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The impact of alumina price increase on caustic soda is indirect, and it is difficult to drive a significant increase in the caustic soda market [75][76]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp decreased slightly. The pulp market is expected to oscillate [77][78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly. The PVC market is expected to oscillate [79]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea production rate increased week - on - week. The urea market is in a weak state. Urea prices are expected to oscillate, and the 9/1 spread is expected to remain high [80][82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreased slightly. The processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate at a low level following the cost [83][85]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash decreased slightly. The soda ash market is stable with slight oscillations. In the short - term, plant maintenance may support the price, while in the medium - term, it is advisable to go short on rallies [86]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The glass futures price is weak, and it is expected to remain in a low - level range. Attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [87][88]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Maersk adjusted its shipping route. The container freight rate on the European line rebounded. The short - term view is that the market will oscillate, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on pullbacks [89].

热点报告——动力煤 新能源替代提前到来，煤价跌势加速 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | --- | | 报告日期： | ★连续 2 年熊市后，动力煤价格 25 年以来再跌 20% 2025 年以来，尽管已然经历 2 年熊市，伴随火电需求增速转 负，煤炭跌势再一次打开。截止 5 月中旬，港口 5500K 煤炭报 价累计下跌 150 元/吨至 620 元/吨，累计跌幅近 20%。基本面供 需失衡剧烈。2025 年 1-4 月份统计局数据，煤炭有效供应增速 （国产+进口）累计增长 6%，火电和非电需求累计下滑 2%。 黑 ★量变到质变，新能源对火电结构性替代提前到来 色 金 新能源对传统火电能源替代加速到来，并逐步由量变转为质 变，导致 2025 年以来火电需求持续负增长。需求持续负增长加 速煤炭短期供需过剩级别，煤价跌势提前打开。 属 电力结构数据显示，2023 年、2024 年年末，新能源发电占比分 别为 17%和 19%；2025 年 4 月末，新能源发电量占比已经跳增 至 25%，风电光伏装机量占比达到 43%。叠加 5 月末结束的光 伏抢装潮，市场对此轮夏季火电增速也保持谨慎态度。 ★进口煤 ...

热点报告——股指期货 [★Ta2b0l2e5_S年um4m月a经ry]济数据解读： 1、作为关税战升级以来的首个月份，中国各项经济指标均同比 走弱，除工增外均不及市场预期，反映出经历一季度的快速修 复后，国内经济压力开始显现。4 月份工增、社零、固投季调环 比增速分别为 0.22%、0.24%、0.1%，均处于历史季节性低位。 扣减掉价格因素后，前 4 月累计看，供给侧表现仍好于需求侧。 股 2、供给侧方面，无论是工业还是服务业虽然同比增速回落，但 结构上均呈现出新质生产力增长较为稳固的态势。高技术制造 业、信息技术服务业等增速分别录得 10%、10.4%。 指 期 货 3、消费增长不及预期。一方面餐饮消费或存在低价内卷现象， 另一方面商品零售则表现为美妆、金银珠宝高增长，而传统补 贴领域的汽车和通信类产品增速开始收敛。 4、投资端，制造业和基建仍有韧性。但地产端，投资、销售、 价格三弱的态势表明"止跌"态势不稳，有较大下行压力。 ★投资建议 增长动能放缓--2025 年 4 月经济数据解读 4 月份经济数据整体表现平淡，出口的高增和内需的低迷形成鲜 明对照。国内政策发力的"疲惫期"或逐渐开始显现，突出表 现 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The financial market is affected by multiple factors such as US fiscal deficits, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The stock and bond markets in the US show signs of instability, and gold has attracted inflow of bottom - fishing funds. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, the prices of some agricultural products are affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, while the prices of some metals and energy chemicals are influenced by factors like production, inventory, and trade policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The EU is expected to share a revised trade proposal with the US, aiming to boost negotiations. The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with poor auction results. - Gold prices are oscillating and showing strength. Tensions in the Middle East, poor 20 - year Treasury bond auction data, and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating have led to inflows of bottom - fishing funds. Gold is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [9][10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - A measure of the dollar's performance has fallen to a one - month low. Traders are waiting for the G - 7 meeting to see if the Trump administration seeks a weaker dollar. - Trump claims that the tax - cut bill is close to passing, but there is still opposition. Rising US Treasury yields and concerns about deficits have led to a weakening of the dollar index. The dollar is expected to be weak in the short term [11][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's attempt to ban Chinese advanced computing chips globally, stating that it is a unilateral and protectionist act. Shanghai plans to implement a consumer goods trade - in program, and eight departments jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing. - The market is differentiated, with more structural and thematic opportunities. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [15][17]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The 20 - year Treasury bond auction was dismal, and the House Speaker Johnson announced an agreement on the state and local tax deduction cap. - Concerns about the sustainability of US government debt are hard to dispel in the short term. Long - term interest rates will suppress US stocks, which are expected to be weak and oscillating [19][21]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 157 billion yuan, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan. - Treasury bond futures are oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of laying out medium - term long positions on dips [22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - On May 21, the actual成交 volume of imported soybeans at the auction was 85,606 tons, with a成交 rate of 32.1%. The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 19 - 700,000 tons in US soybean exports. - Argentine precipitation affects soybean harvests, and US soybean planting progress is slow, causing CBOT soybeans to rise. However, the increase is expected to be limited. Domestic soybean meal prices have been slightly adjusted upwards. Soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean growing areas' weather and the 25/26 balance sheet adjustment [23][26]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - In April 2025, China's air - conditioner production increased year - on - year, while refrigerator and TV production decreased. From May 1 - 18, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. - Steel prices are oscillating, and the market sentiment is cautious. With weak domestic real - estate and infrastructure demand, uncertain manufacturing demand, and potential external demand risks, steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the near future. It is recommended to hold light positions in the short term [27][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar domestic sales quota in May 2025 is 2.35 million tons, the same as last month. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of May decreased year - on - year. China's syrup and premix imports in April decreased year - on - year. - International sugar trade supply - demand is expected to loosen, and the global sugar supply - demand may turn to surplus in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the weather in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar - pressing data [30][34]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weakly stable. Coal mines have stable production, but downstream procurement is negative. The coking coal futures are oscillating downward, and the supply is excessive. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. - Coking coal is expected to be bearish in the short and medium term, and coke is expected to oscillate weakly [35][36]. 2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The overall progress of the Guangxi Beihai green ecological aluminum project has exceeded 90%, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in the third quarter of this year. - The alumina spot price has increased, and the Guinea ore disturbance has led to increased short - term fluctuations in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [37]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $24.07 per ton. In April, lead concentrate imports increased year - on - year. Recycled lead smelters have cut waste battery purchase prices due to losses. - The lead industry has high finished - product inventories and weak terminal demand. There is a risk of a squeeze in the overseas market. Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on potential internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [39][42]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - From January to April, the cumulative export volume of galvanized sheets increased year - on - year. On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $29.83 per ton. - Zinc prices are oscillating widely. The near - strong and far - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory inflection point may be gradually confirmed. It is recommended to short at high levels on a medium - term basis for unilateral trading and focus on positive arbitrage opportunities [43][45]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US plans to impose high tariffs on Southeast Asian solar equipment. There has been an increase in warehouse receipts, and leading enterprises are maintaining price - holding strategies, while second - and third - tier enterprises have cut prices. - The polysilicon market is affected by news, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended to focus on positive arbitrage opportunities after price corrections [46][48]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon new material and additive project with an annual output of 40,000 tons is in the environmental impact assessment public - notice stage. - Industrial silicon prices have been falling. Some small factories plan to cut production, while some silicon factories in Sichuan may resume production. With weak demand, the market is not optimistic. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and short positions can be held [49][50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The LME has approved the addition of three warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. China's copper production in April increased slightly month - on - month. Antofagasta has started mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. - The US dollar index may be under pressure, which supports copper prices, but the short - term weakening of the fundamentals may suppress copper prices. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. It is recommended to conduct band trading [51][54]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Argentina has approved a $2.5 billion lithium mine project by Rio Tinto. Argentina's lithium carbonate exports in April were 8,066.71 tons. - The long - term logic of oversupply and falling cost support in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. The market is expected to be unstable before the improvement of spot and downstream orders. It is recommended to control short - position sizes and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [55][57]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On May 21, LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons compared to the previous day. - LME and SHFE nickel inventories are slightly decreasing. Nickel prices are oscillating. The NPI - to - high - ice - nickel profit has opened, and the supply of pure nickel may increase marginally. It is recommended to focus on short - term band trading and medium - term long - position opportunities on dips [58][59]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - On May 21, the spot price of civil LPG in Shandong was stable. The US C3 inventory has been accumulating, and the Far - East import willingness has been partially suppressed. - The LPG market is weak, and the futures are expected to oscillate weakly [60][64]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending May 16. - Oil prices are falling. With rising inventory, stable production, and low downstream inventory, there is a high risk of a further decline in oil prices in the absence of effective upward drivers [65][66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the spot basis has stabilized. - PTA futures are oscillating. With supply - side disturbances and strong demand, the PTA valuation has been repaired, but it has corrected recently due to demand - side rumors. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased compared to last week. The urea price in Shandong has declined slightly. - Urea is oscillating. The export - related expectations have been gradually realized, and the 9/1 spread is expected to remain high [70][71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable. - With falling raw material costs, high industry production, and limited processing - fee decline space, the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level following cost changes [72][74]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash market in South China is stable. The soda - ash futures have strengthened slightly, while the spot market is oscillating steadily. - Short - term soda - ash plant maintenance may support the market, but it is recommended to go short at high levels in the medium term [75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On May 21, the price of float glass in the Shahe market was mostly stable. - The glass futures have risen slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed much. With weak demand and no positive policies, glass prices are expected to remain low. Attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [76][77]. 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Due to a national strike, Belgian ports are facing disruptions. The rumors of Maersk's lower - than - expected cabin opening in June have impacted the European - route futures. - It is recommended to treat the market with a weakly oscillating mindset, as the price from Shanghai to Rotterdam has not been released, and it is less likely to exceed $2,500 per FEU [78].

日度报告——综合晨报 LPR 迎来年内首降，以色列准备袭击伊核设施 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-21 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 以色列准备袭击伊核设施 美国情报部门发现以色列准备袭击伊朗核设施，市场避险情绪 明显上升，美元指数震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） LPR 迎来年内首降 综 股市再次演绎风险偏好走高的过程，权重股大幅上行，市场情 绪乐观。短期无更多催化下，散户入场可能是本轮资金持续走 高的原因。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 中国 4 月棕榈液油进口 15.68 万吨，环比减少 6.35% 马棕出口小幅增加，中国 4 月棕榈油进口环比下降。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 国家发改委：将稳步有序推进城市更新重点工程实施 钢价延续弱势震荡，市场情绪依然偏谨慎。4 月经济数据进一步 验证国内地产和基建需求没有明显改善，外需在抢出口后同样 存在风险，钢价预计近期仍处于震荡格局。 有色金属（铜） 中国 4 月精炼铜进口量环比下降 15.27% 宏观因素阶段影响偏中性，但市场对基本面阶段转弱担忧正在 升温，预计铜价短期震荡偏弱可能性更大。 晨 伊朗最高领袖表态强势 报 金价强势上涨，主要是受 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The average duration of ships in major domestic ports remains at a high level. Whether the surge in Sino - US goods will cause the port congestion to continue to deteriorate needs further observation. The Port of Klang is operating under continuous overload, and the port congestion has worsened again, with the average duration of ships in the port rebounding to about 2.5 days. - Some ports in Northwest Europe still have congestion problems due to issues such as intermittent strikes, cargo backlogs, and labor shortages. A strike will be held again in Belgian ports this week, and the congestion disturbance may be difficult to eliminate in the short term. - North American ports are operating well, and attention should be paid to whether the subsequent dense arrival of goods will cause port congestion [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Review - **Asia Ports**: - In Yangshan Port, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships is 14.3 hours/25.5 hours, and the latest number of container ships at anchor/berthing is 19/26. In Ningbo Port, the corresponding figures are 15.5 hours/26.9 hours and 38/33. In Qingdao, it's 14.6 hours/42.6 hours. In Singapore Port, it's 3.5 hours/28.4 hours with 4/47 ships at anchor/berthing. In the Port of Klang, it's 34.8 hours/28.1 hours with 16/22 ships at anchor/berthing [2]. - The latest average duration in port of Yangshan, Ningbo, Singapore, and the Port of Klang is 39.6 hours, 40.8 hours, 31.6 hours, and 63.0 hours respectively. The month - on - month changes are - 4.3 hours, - 7.2 hours, 0.2 hours, and 20.2 hours, and the year - on - year changes are 11.0 hours, - 3.5 hours, - 7.5 hours, and 29.1 hours [6]. - **European Ports**: - In Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 13.8 hours/43.0 hours, 31.0 hours/40.7 hours, 27.7 hours/46.9 hours, and 11.1 hours/43.6 hours respectively. The latest number of container ships at anchor/berthing in Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg are 4/26, 5/18, and 4/17 respectively. In Valencia, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time is 9.2 hours/36.2 hours, and the number of ships at anchor/berthing is 2/10 [2]. - The latest average duration in port of Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Valencia is 53.1 hours, 66.3 hours, and 43.7 hours respectively. The month - on - month changes are - 5.9 hours, - 6.7 hours, and - 0.4 hours, and the year - on - year changes are 1.0 hours, 14.0 hours, and 1.7 hours [6]. - **North American Ports**: - In Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Tacoma, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/82.1 hours, 3.8 hours/92.9 hours, and 0 hours/78.7 hours respectively. The number of container ships at anchor in Long Beach and Los Angeles is 0, and the number of berthing ships is 13. In New York, Savannah, and Norfolk, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time are 7.9 hours/48.1 hours, 24.1 hours/36.4 hours, and 20.7 hours/25.5 hours respectively. In New York, the number of ships at anchor/berthing is 0/12. In Houston Port, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time is 3.7 hours/45.5 hours [2]. - The latest average duration in port of Long Beach, Los Angeles, and New York is 107.3 hours, 106.1 hours, and 54.0 hours respectively. The month - on - month changes are 1.5 hours, - 3.6 hours, and 5.4 hours, and the year - on - year changes are - 1.9 hours, - 0.8 hours, and 6.6 hours [6]. 3.2 Asia Port Dynamic Tracking - The scale of container ships in port in China and Southeast Asia is presented through data on the number of container ships at anchor and berthing in different ports over time, including Shanghai, Singapore, and the Port of Klang [9][11]. - The average waiting time, berthing time, and in - port time of ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese container ports are tracked over time [17]. 3.3 European Port Dynamic Tracking - The scale of container ships in port in Europe, including Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean/Black Sea regions, is presented through data on the number of container ships at anchor and berthing in different ports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg [20]. - The average waiting time, berthing time, and in - port time of ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean container ports are tracked over time [26][30]. 3.4 North American Port Dynamic Tracking - The number of container ships at anchor and berthing in North American ports, and the average waiting time, berthing time, and in - port time of ocean - going container ships in US container ports are presented [35][36]. - The scale of container ships in port in North America, including the East and West coasts, is presented [38]. 3.5 Large - Ship Arrival Situation and Key Hub Monitoring - The arrival situation of large - scale container ships in Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port is monitored over time [43]. - The arrival situation of 12,000 + TEU container ships of different alliances (Gemini, OA, PA + MSC) in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean is monitored [46][49]. - The passage situation of container ships through key shipping routes such as the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal is monitored [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic fundamentals will gradually face pressure, and the fundamental situation is favorable for the bond market. It is advisable to maintain the strategy of buying on dips. In the medium to long term, the probability of making profits by going long on long - term bonds is high, but the potential return is relatively limited. Therefore, the strategy of buying on dips is more cost - effective [3][35] - The economic data in Q2 may decline moderately, and the pressure on economic decline will become more apparent in Q3. It is expected that China will introduce incremental policies to address this situation at that time [2][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Increase in Internal and External Pressures, Most Economic Data Falling Short of Expectations - **Q1 Economic Data Strength Logic**: The strong performance of Q1 economic data was mainly due to two reasons: the beginning of the year is the peak demand season for sectors such as real estate, and policy efforts further stimulated market demand; enterprises had a strong motivation to rush exports, and the export industry chain showed resilience. However, both logics had issues of poor sustainability [1][9][10] - **April Economic Data Weakening**: In April, most economic data weakened compared to the previous period. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in April was 6.5%, with an expected value of 6.1% and a previous value of 7.7%; the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in April was 5.1%, with an expected value of 5.5% and a previous value of 5.9%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to April was 4%, with an expected value of 4.2% and a previous value of 4.2%. After the data was released, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose [9] - **Future Economic Trend**: The economic data in Q2 may decline moderately, and the pressure on economic decline will become more obvious starting from mid - year. Fiscal policy is the key to hedging against the weakening external demand. It is expected that China will introduce incremental policies in Q3, and policies will become the focus of market speculation at that time [2][11] 2. Production End: Both Industrial and Service Production Show Weakening Resilience - **Industrial Production**: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.5%, with an expected value of 6.1% and a previous value of 7.7%. The growth rate of industrial production is weakening. The decline in the growth rate of export delivery value and the weakening of terminal demand such as external demand have dragged down production performance. Policy support has prevented a significant decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value. Looking forward, the weakening of external demand will have a more obvious impact on industries with high export dependence, but policies such as "two new" will support the production end, and the decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value is expected to be limited [12][13] - **Service Production**: In April, the service production growth rate was 6.0%, with a previous value of 6.3%. Weak service consumption and unstable economic recovery expectations have negatively affected service production. In the future, the production growth rate is expected to decline slightly. Although terminal demand is weak, policies to boost service consumption are expected to prevent a significant decline in the service production growth rate [13] 3. Demand End: Both Manufacturing and Infrastructure Growth Rates Decline Slightly, and Real Estate Data Deteriorates Marginally Again - **Manufacturing Investment**: From January to April, the cumulative manufacturing investment growth rate was 8.8%, with a previous value of 9.1%; in April, the monthly manufacturing investment growth rate was 8.2%, with a previous value of 9.2%. The decline in manufacturing investment growth rate is due to weak terminal demand and low corporate investment and financing willingness. However, policies such as equipment renewal have limited the decline. In the future, manufacturing will continue to grow at a high speed, but there will be obvious structural differentiation [18][19] - **Infrastructure Investment**: From January to April, the cumulative growth rate of broad - based infrastructure was 10.85%, with a previous value of 11.5%; the narrow - based infrastructure growth rate was 5.8%, with a previous value of 5.8%. In April, the monthly broad - based infrastructure growth rate was 9.57%, with a previous value of 12.58%. Infrastructure growth is gradually declining from a high level. The slow issuance of new special bonds and the decline in investment growth rates of some central - led infrastructure industries have led to the weakening of infrastructure growth in April. In the short term, infrastructure growth may face a slight downward pressure, but it is expected to rise again with subsequent policy support [22][23] - **Real Estate Market**: Most real estate indicators showed a decline again. Weak consumer willingness to buy houses and tight corporate funding sources have led to a decline in real estate investment. In the short term, the probability of directly introducing strong policies to stimulate real estate demand is low. The core idea of stabilizing the real estate market is to increase effective supply to stimulate effective demand. In the short term, real estate data may continue to weaken, and the impact of incremental fiscal policies on the real estate market in Q3 can be observed [26][27] - **Social Retail Sales**: In April, the social retail sales growth rate was 5.1%, with an expected value of 5.5% and a previous value of 5.9%. The decline in automobile and other large - scale consumer goods sales has dragged down the social retail sales growth rate. Different types of consumer goods show differentiated performance. In the future, social retail sales still face pressure due to high macro - environmental uncertainty and low probability of direct policies to improve residents' cash flow statements [30][31] 4. Fundamental Factors Favor the Bond Market, Maintain the Strategy of Buying on Dips - **Bond Market Outlook**: Due to the poor sustainability of the previous logics driving economic data improvement, future economic fundamental pressure will gradually emerge, which is favorable for the bond market. In the medium to long term, the probability of making profits by going long on long - term bonds is high, but the potential return is relatively limited. Therefore, the strategy of buying on dips is more cost - effective [3][35] - **Monetary Policy and Yield Curve**: The future fundamental pressure will gradually emerge, and the pressure of exchange - rate depreciation is relatively controllable. The probability of overall loose monetary policy is high. It is expected that the central level of capital interest rates will decline slightly, and the capital market will be in a state of balanced and slightly loose. The current yield curve is relatively flat and is expected to gradually steepen in the future [35][36] - **Investment Strategies**: In the medium term, there is still a bullish outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of deploying medium - term long positions on dips. The opportunities for futures positive arbitrage have significantly decreased, and only some contracts still have slight positive arbitrage opportunities. Opportunities to steepen the curve have initially emerged, and subsequent changes in capital interest rates need to be closely monitored [38]

日度报告——综合晨报 4 月经济数据同比回落 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储官员频频为降息泼冷水 特朗普和普京的谈话结束，特朗普表态俄乌立刻谈判，但是分 歧存在的情况下，预计难以实现。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中国 4 月经济数据同比回落 综 4 月份经济数据同比增速回落，反映出外部冲击和内需走弱的双 重压力。下一阶段政策应竭力呵护房地产市场，持续巩固"止 跌回稳"态势，缓解居民资产收缩压力，释放消费潜力。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 美豆种植率高于预期 报 巴西 CNF 升贴水继续下降，国内进口大豆成本随之下行。随着 进口大豆到港及油厂开机增加，上周豆粕库存继续小幅上升， 昨日沿海豆粕现货报价以下跌为主。 有色金属（铜） 中国 4 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量同比增加 0.2% 短期美元指数承压运行而支撑铜价，但国内基本面阶段转弱预 期升温而抑制铜价，总体上，铜价短期震荡偏弱运行可能性更 大。 能源化工（原油） 欧盟或向 G7 提议将俄罗斯石油价格上限降至 50 美元/桶 油价窄幅波动。 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | -- ...