伦敦金涨 4.3%至 4219 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率降至 4%，通胀 预期 2.24%，实际利率下行至 1.76%，美元指数跌 0.72%至 99.4，标 普 500 指数涨 3.73%，人民币升值，沪金折价扩大。 贵 金 属 金价再度转涨，表现偏强，一方面是对美联储降息预期的快速提 升，一方面是白银出现现货紧张再度炒作逼空推动了整个贵金属 板块的上涨。美联储多位官员发表讲话，基调从此前的鹰派转为 鸽派，12 月降息概率已经回升至 80%以上，美联储理事米兰再度 呼吁应该大幅降息，美联储理事沃勒则担忧就业市场而倾向于 12 月继续降息，哈塞特作为美联储下届主席的有力人选也表态鸽派 支持进一步降息，市场对于美联储后续的利率路径预期持续宽松。 美元指数高位回落，大宗商品整体反弹。 美国 9 月零售销售环比增加 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.6%，消费 动能有所放缓，黑五网上销售额大幅增加，但价格上涨幅度大于 销售量的增加，通胀压力有所增加，9 月耐用品订单环比增加 0.5%，预期 0.3%，前值 3%，9 月 PPI 同比 2.7%、环比 0.3%符合 预期，核心 PPI 同比 2.6%、环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea's bauxite prices remain stable, and alumina supply continues to recover. The alumina market is in an oversupply stage. Although there is theoretical downward space for prices, excessive speculation is not advisable. A bearish approach can be considered if there is a price rebound [1][4][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Shanxi's 58/5 bauxite was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan's at 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou's 60/6 bauxite at 596 yuan/ton. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines resumed production, but the increase was limited. During the heating season, production and environmental supervision in northern mines tightened, with few mines over - producing. Domestic ore supply is difficult to improve in the short term, and the actual market circulation of ore is extremely limited. Guinea's bauxite is priced at 70 - 71 dollars/dry ton. After the rainy season, its shipping volume is recovering. 398.7 million tons of new ore arrived, including 301.2 million tons from Guinea and 97.5 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China is 24.5 dollars/ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: Last week, alumina spot prices declined slightly. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2831.9 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from last week. Imported alumina port quotes were 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. Aluminum plants have high inventories and sufficient long - term orders, resulting in limited spot transactions. In terms of imports, 30,000 tons of alumina from East Australia were sold at FOB 311.50 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 2760 yuan/ton, and the import window opened. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2817 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 45 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the operating capacity, which had decreased due to maintenance, environmental protection, and other factors, began to rise again after the end of maintenance. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.7 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 84.4% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum's new production capacity started power - on on November 21. The first stage plans to put into operation 60 electrolytic cells, equivalent to about 66,000 tons of production capacity, and 100,000 tons are planned to be launched this year. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 44.243 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, Indonesia's KAI electrolytic aluminum plant was officially put into production in late November, planning to start 2 electrolytic cells per day, with an annualized operating capacity of about 8000 tons. India's Vedanta's Balco electrolytic aluminum plant expansion project is slowly being put into production, with an operating capacity of about 610,000 tons and an additional 50,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 29.596 million tons, an increase of 38,000 tons week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (November 27), the national alumina inventory was 4.415 million tons, an increase of 71,000 tons from last week. Remote electrolytic aluminum enterprises continue to absorb the current oversupply pressure by slightly increasing alumina inventories. In the Xinjiang region, some industrial chain groups' alumina inventories are increasing steadily. In the western region, some industrial chain and single - entity electrolytic aluminum enterprises are still in the process of increasing inventories through hedging and tax - included purchases. Although the winter storage actions of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are relatively small, the intention for winter storage is concentrated in the industry, especially in remote aluminum plants. Quantitatively, the inventories of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are steadily increasing. Alumina enterprises' inventories are relatively low, while port inventories of imported alumina are relatively high [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 258,413 tons, an increase of 7,503 tons from last week. Last week, the alumina futures price continued to be weak. Fundamentally, alumina enterprises in Shanxi and Henan are in a loss situation, but their determination to cut production is still weak, and the industry remains oversupplied, with inventories continuing to accumulate. Considering the current supply and demand, there is theoretical downward space for alumina prices, but excessive speculation is not advisable. Since the industry is still in an oversupply stage, a bearish approach can be considered if there is a price rebound [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Increase in Theoretical Import Profit of Alumina**: As of Friday (November 28), the Australian alumina quotation was about 313.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 dollars/ton from November 21. According to real - time data, the cost of reaching northern Chinese ports is about 2796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan. Affected by the decline in the Australian FOB price, the northern theoretical import profit rose to 52 yuan/ton [16] - **End of 9 - Month Net Export of Chinese Alumina**: In October 2025, China's alumina imports were 189,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 215% and a year - on - year surge of 2923%; alumina exports were 176,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The net import of alumina in October was 13,000 tons, ending the 9 - month continuous net export pattern in 2025 [16] - **Alumina Enterprises in Dilemma**: ALD believes that after mid - December, the market supply pressure is expected to be more intense. Although strong price fluctuations are not expected for the time being, the inventory changes of alumina enterprises and electrolytic aluminum enterprises will be the main dynamic reference variables for later judgment [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The report provides charts on domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventories, port shipping volumes of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventories of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][25][27][29] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes charts on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [32][34][35][40] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents charts on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventories, alumina plants' alumina inventories, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventories, alumina port inventories, domestic total social alumina inventories, the amount and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of alumina holding volume to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [42][45][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [4] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are not strongly driven, and the balance sheet may be less optimistic than previously expected due to lower - than - expected exports and the impact of the "anti - involution" in the silicone industry. The short - term industrial silicon futures price may oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, although the fundamentals have weakened significantly, leading silicon material companies are determined to maintain prices, resulting in a high virtual - to - real ratio of the PS2601 contract. Short - term polysilicon volatility has increased, and investors are advised to operate with caution [3][15][17] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon closed at 9,130 yuan/ton this week, up 170 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9,550 yuan/ton, while the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon closed at 56,425 yuan/ton, up 3,065 yuan/ton from last week. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding material of polysilicon remained flat at 53,200 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. November Centralized Cancellations, Focus on New Warehouse Receipt Registrations - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated this week. In December, the total number of open furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan may drop below 20. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.18 million tons. Due to weaker - than - expected organic silicon and export demand, it is difficult to reduce inventory from December to the first quarter of next year. Northern silicon factories conduct hedging when the price rises, and downstream buyers purchase based on rigid demand [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon rose slightly this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 75.43%, with a weekly output of 49,900 tons, up 1.42% from the previous week, and inventory of 44,700 tons, up 2.05%. Organic silicon monomer factories announced a production cut plan on December 1, but the action is not obvious yet. The market is determined to maintain prices, but demand is weak [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated this week. The prices of dense re - feeding material and granular material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg and 50 - 51 yuan/kg respectively. The low - price range showed signs of loosening. The planned production in December is expected to be 115,000 tons. As of November 30, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 281,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous week. It is difficult for the spot price to rise against the trend [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers dropped significantly this week. The prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers fell to 1.20/1.25/1.55 yuan/piece. The average price of each size has dropped to or below the cash cost. Production cuts are obvious, and the planned production in December is expected to be 45GW. As of November 27, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 19.5GW, up 0.78GW from the previous week [13] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells continued to decline this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.285, 0.275, and 0.285 yuan/watt respectively. As of November 24, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 12.05GW, up 1.84GW from the previous week. Although there are production cut plans in December, it is difficult to completely improve the supply - demand situation [13] - **Components**: The price of components remained basically stable this week. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects for large customers was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. Some large - scale procurement projects showed demand for high - power components above 700W, with quotes ranging from 0.72 - 0.75 yuan/watt. Demand has declined significantly, and new orders are scarce. The planned production in December may drop significantly, and the domestic planned production is only 37GW. As of November 10, the finished product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 30.2GW, down 0.1GW from the previous week [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term industrial silicon futures price may oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Investors can focus on range - trading opportunities [3][15] - **Polysilicon**: Due to increased short - term volatility, investors are advised to operate with caution [3][17] 4. Hot News - A polysilicon plant with an annual output of 30,000 tons will be built in Morocco. From January to October, the cumulative installed solar power generation capacity in China was 1.14 billion kilowatts, with a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. The first - phase project of Inner Mongolia Xingfa's industrial silicon project was successfully capped [18] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory data [20][30][40]

[Table_Rank] 走势评级： 碳酸锂：震荡 周度报告—碳酸锂 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ★大厂复产临近，需求成色有待验证 大厂复产临近，需求成色有待验证 上周（11/24-11/28）锂盐价格呈震荡偏强走势。LC2512 收盘价 环比+4.0%至 9.46 万元/吨，LC2601 收盘价环比+4.0%至 9.46 万 元/吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+1.6%至 9.38、 9.13 万元/吨。氢氧化锂价格跟随上行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电 池级氢氧化锂均价环比分别+1.0%、+0.9%至 8.21、8.69 万元/吨。 电工价差环比+50 元/吨至 2,450 元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池 级碳酸锂价格贴水环比走阔 650 元至 1.2 万元/吨。 上周盘面延续偏强运行，限仓政策使得主力合约加速换月至 05 合约。消息面上，周四晚自然资源部发布枧下窝采矿权变更受理 通知书，据自然资源部官网披露预计受理申请之日起 20 个工作 日内作出登记决定，符合规定的将颁发不动产权证书（采矿权）， 预计复产行动将在 12 月中旬左右启动，与我们此 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for stock index futures in the short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) [4][98] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the global stock market followed a repair logic, with major national indexes rising by over 2%. The Chinese stock market also saw a recovery, but the repair was weaker than expected. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index only rose 1.4% this week and failed to close above 3900 points in a single week. The market volume shrank, with Friday's trading volume falling below 1800 billion yuan, indicating weak bottom - fishing forces. Micro - cap stocks had significant gains, and margin trading balances increased, showing that some speculative funds were still active. Given the high uncertainty of recent geopolitical factors and the liquidity - driven nature of this bull market, as liquidity recedes, the stock index may maintain a narrow - range shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the upcoming important meeting in December [2][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - week View and Overview of Key Macroeconomic Events 3.1.1 Next Week's View - In the context of the ebbing of liquidity, the A - share market will experience a narrow - range shock. The repair of the Chinese stock market this week was weaker than expected in three aspects: weak repair strength, market volume shrinkage, and large gains in micro - cap stocks. Due to geopolitical uncertainties, the market may remain in a narrow - range shock as the liquidity - driven bull market fades. Attention should be paid to the important meeting in December [2][10] 3.1.2 Key Events This Week - On November 24, Vice - Premier He Lifeng had a video call with French officials, expressing China's willingness to deepen economic and financial cooperation with France [11] - On November 25, Alibaba's Q2 financial report for fiscal year 2026 exceeded expectations, with revenue of 247.8 billion yuan in the quarter, and it plans to invest in AI [12] - On November 26, six departments issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to promote consumption, focusing on key industries and building experimental platforms [13][14] - On November 27, industrial enterprise profits in October decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the State Council meeting deployed the promotion of provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance [15][16] - On November 28, the Political Bureau meeting reviewed the comprehensive report on inspections of provinces, and the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium for service - industry private enterprises [17][18] 3.2 One - week Market Performance Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From November 24 - 28, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 3.54%, with developed markets (+3.67%) > emerging markets (+2.47%) > frontier markets (+2.12%). The Canadian stock market rose 5.07%, outperforming the world, while the Saudi stock market fell 2.98%, the worst - performing globally [1][19] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From November 24 - 28, Chinese equity assets rose, with Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks > A - shares. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 1737 billion yuan, a decrease of 128.2 billion yuan from last week. All A - share broad - based indexes rose, with the micro - cap stock index rising 6.11% and the Shanghai 50 Index rising 0.47% [1][22] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS First - level Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - This week, all global GICS first - level industries rose, with the materials sector leading (+5.20%) and the energy sector having the smallest increase (+1.14%). In the Chinese market, the information technology sector had the largest increase (+5.71%), and the energy sector lagged (- 0.53%) [26] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC First - level Industries - Among A - share CITIC first - level industries this week, 25 rose (0 last week) and 5 fell (30 last week). The communication industry had the largest increase (+8.74%), and the petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest decrease (- 0.62%) [1][29] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles: Small - cap Growth Dominates - This week, growth stocks outperformed value stocks, and the market - cap style favored small - cap stocks [33] 3.2.6 Overview of Futures Basis - The report provides the basis data of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past six months, but no specific data analysis is given [34][39] 3.3 Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast 3.3.1 Broad - based Index Valuation - The report presents the PE and PB data of various broad - based indexes this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings, such as the PE of the Shanghai 50 Index being 11.83 this week, with an eight - year percentile of 86.87% [42] 3.3.2 First - level Industry Valuation - The report shows the PE and PB data of various first - level industries this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings, such as the PE of the petroleum and petrochemical industry being 13.65 this week, with an eight - year percentile of 50.12% [43] 3.3.3 Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [44][49] 3.3.4 Broad - based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.69% and up to 9.46% in 2026; for the CSI 500, it was adjusted down to 27.81% in 2025 and up to 20.71% in 2026; for the CSI 1000, it was adjusted down to 28.88% in 2025 and up to 24.99% in 2026 [50] 3.4 Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields rose, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 99.4, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.07 [58] 3.4.2 Tracking of Trading - type Funds - This week, the average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 3.4 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 9.8 billion yuan [62] 3.4.3 Tracking of Capital Flows Through ETFs - There are 29 on - exchange ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 29 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 200 million, the share of those tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 100 million, the share of those tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 270 million, and the share of those tracking the CSI A500 increased by 400 million [65][70] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic High - frequency Macroeconomic Data 3.5.1 Supply Side: Tire Production Rate Declined - The report shows data on national blast furnace operating rates, coking enterprise operating rates, domestic crude steel daily output, and tire production rates, indicating a decline in tire production rates [73][75] 3.5.2 Consumption Side: Real Estate Transactions Remained Sluggish - The data on the transaction area of first - hand houses in 30 large and medium - sized cities, second - hand houses in 16 key cities, land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities, second - hand house listings, and prices show that the real estate market is still weak. However, the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $64.8 per barrel [81][89] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation: Production Material Prices Rose Rapidly, and Agricultural Product Prices Stabilized - The prices of production materials rose rapidly, while agricultural product prices remained flat [91][92]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Dollar: Volatile [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has rebounded, most stock markets have bounced back, and most bond yields have declined. The yield of US Treasuries has dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, and all non-US currencies have rebounded. Gold prices have risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce, the VIX index has dropped to 16.35, and the spot commodity index has closed higher. Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel [1][5][9]. - Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, causing the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut to quickly rise to 80%. The market's concern about the AI bubble has decreased. US retail sales in September were below expectations, consumer momentum has slowed down, and inflation pressure has increased. Although the initial jobless claims for the week were lower than expected and the previous value, the weakening trend in the labor market remains unchanged. The lack of key inflation and employment data before the Fed's December interest rate meeting will increase market volatility [2][11]. - The short - term market will continue to be in a state of liquidity repair, with the US dollar index declining, risk assets rising, and safe - haven assets recovering [34]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Global Market Overview - Market risk appetite has rebounded, most stock markets have bounced back, and most bond yields have declined. The yield of US Treasuries has dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, non - US currencies have generally appreciated, gold prices have risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce, the VIX index has dropped to 16.35, the spot commodity index has closed higher, and Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets have mostly risen, with US and Chinese A - share markets rebounding. The S&P 500 has risen by 3.73%, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 1.4%, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 2.53%, and the Nikkei 225 Index has risen by 3.35%. Fed officials' dovish remarks and Google's competition with NVIDIA in the AI field have boosted the stock market. However, the weakening economic fundamentals in China and the increasing willingness of funds to take profits at the end of the year limit the rebound of the stock market [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields have mostly declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.01%. The expectation of an interest rate cut has risen, but the downward space for long - term bond yields is limited due to future inflation pressure. The Japanese government's fiscal stimulus plan has pushed up the yield of Japanese government bonds. The yield of China's 10 - year Treasury bonds has risen slightly, and the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread has narrowed [14][18][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, and all non - US currencies have rebounded. The offshore RMB has risen by 0.48%, the euro has risen by 0.74%, the pound has risen by 1.02%, and other non - US currencies have also shown varying degrees of appreciation [23][24][26] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce due to the increased expectation of an interest rate cut and concerns about a short squeeze in silver. Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel. The supply - demand pattern of oil prices remains weak, but concerns about supply and the decline of the US dollar have led to an increase in the commodity spot index [27][29] 3. Hotspot Tracking - US retail data in September were below expectations, and the slowdown in retail growth indicates weakening consumer momentum and rising downward pressure on the real economy. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has reversed, and the short - term market is in a state of liquidity repair [30][33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November ISM Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday: Eurozone November CPI; Wednesday: US November ADP Employment and November ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI; Thursday: US initial jobless claims for the week and November Challenger Job Cuts; Friday: US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index [35]

周度报告-国债期货 债市短暂修复，但调整压力并未解除 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡转弱 本周（11.24-11.30）国债期货震荡转弱。周一，受 12 月美联储 降息预期升温影响，股指高开，但随即走弱；期债低开随即拉 升，全天偏强运行。尾盘市场预期稳地产政策即将发力，国债 利率小幅上行。周二，上午股市表现较强，国债期货震荡偏 弱，午后股市虽然转弱，但债市较为担忧稳增长政策公布、基 金费率新规落地，国债期货跌幅扩大。周三，国债期货大幅下 跌。上午 CPO 板块大幅上涨，下午市场担忧央行买债规模不及 预期，机构赎回规模也较大，利率上行，曲线走陡。周四，市 场消息面平静，大跌后市场情绪有所企稳，但机构做多动力也 不强，各品种窄幅震荡。周五，早盘股市走弱，国债期货拉 升，但债市多头力量并不强，随着股市拉升，国债期货回吐涨 幅。截至 11 月 28 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债 期货 2603 合约结算价分别为 102.378、105.735、107.915 和 114.460 元，分别 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A-share market experienced a volume - shrinking adjustment with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.29% to 3875.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.44%. The daily trading volume was 1.72 trillion yuan, down from 1.8 trillion yuan the previous day. In October, the revenue and profit growth rates of industrial enterprises turned negative, with quantity dropping, price stabilizing, and profit margins shrinking [14][15]. - The U.S. stock market was closed for Thanksgiving, and the stock index futures closed flat with light trading. Putin's statement on the peace plan had limited impact on the U.S. stock market [2]. - After a sharp decline in the bond market, the odds of going long improved, and there would be a repair, but the adjustment pressure still existed after the rebound [3]. - For agricultural products like soybeans, the supply - demand situation changed little, with Brazil's expected new - crop output hitting a record high. The market focused on U.S. soybean export sales [4]. - In the black metal sector, the overall inventory data of steel was okay, but the slow destocking of coils suppressed steel prices. Steel prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - For energy - chemical products such as float glass, the inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased slightly this week, and the futures price rose due to rumors of production line shutdowns [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - Putin publicly discussed the peace plan but there was no final solution. The U.S. stock market was closed for Thanksgiving, and the market trading was light with the stock index futures closing flat. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations had limited impact on the U.S. stock market. It was recommended to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average could provide strong support [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council executive meeting deployed the promotion of provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance. A - shares had a volume - shrinking adjustment. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. It was recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indexes [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 3564 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 564 billion yuan. After a sharp decline, the bond market might have a short - term repair, but it was still bearish overall [17][18]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA would release the weekly export sales report. The market expected U.S. soybean export sales to increase by 60 - 200 million tons. Brazil's soybean production in the 25/26 season was expected to reach a record 178 million tons. It was recommended to view the futures prices of both domestic and foreign markets with a range - bound perspective and focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather [19][20]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 27, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia was weak. After the end of winter stockpiling, coal prices were driven by actual supply and demand. It was recommended to pay attention to whether the daily consumption would turn positive after December to support coal prices [21]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company was advancing iron ore projects in Ukraine and Canada. Iron ore prices continued to fluctuate widely. With port inventories piling up and demand seasonally declining, iron ore was expected to maintain a range - bound trend [22]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot market of port coke fluctuated. For coking coal, supply was increasing while iron - making output decreased slightly. For coke, the market expectation weakened due to falling coking coal prices. It was recommended to focus on downstream restocking [23][24]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机 rate of corn starch increased, and inventory continued to decline significantly. It was recommended that starch would likely remain strong in the short term, and mid - short - term spread trading should be range - bound, while it might strengthen in the long - term [24][25]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises continued to decline counter - seasonally. The spot price was strong, and the futures price was oscillating at a high level. The 01 contract was expected to be difficult to fall, and it was not recommended to short the 03 and 05 contracts against the trend [26]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The production schedule of major white - goods in December 2025 decreased. The steel inventory data was okay, but the slow destocking of coils suppressed steel prices. It was recommended to view steel prices with a range - bound perspective [27][28][29][30]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A 30,000 - ton polysilicon plant would be built in Morocco. The spot price of polysilicon was mainly determined by the game between policy and fundamentals. It was recommended that the futures main contract might trade between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - bound trading opportunities [31][32][34]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The first - phase project of an industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia reached an important milestone. The supply and demand situation of industrial silicon deteriorated, and it was recommended that the short - term futures price might oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton [35][36]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead cash - 3 - month spread was at a discount. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased. It was recommended that short - position holders should look for opportunities to stop losses on dips, and it was better to wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading [37][38]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - 3 - month spread was at a premium. The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, hold long - short spread positions for spread trading, and exit cross - border arbitrage positions in a timely manner [39][40][41]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. A project's production was expected to decline. The nickel market was still in surplus, but the current futures price was below the cost. It was recommended that previous short - position holders could gradually stop losses and consider going long at low prices [42][43][44]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Ghana made progress. The production of domestic lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory also decreased. It was not recommended to chase long positions, and short positions could be lightly established on the right - hand side if production resumed and demand declined in the off - season. A long - position strategy was recommended in the long - term [45][46]. 2.14 Energy - Chemical Products (Natural Gas) - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased more than expected, but further price increases were difficult due to warm - weather forecasts and weak overseas demand. NYMEX natural gas still faced downward pressure [47][48]. 2.15 Energy - Chemical Products (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA increased by 1.02% on November 27. The impact of the carry - over policy might be more emotional than real. It was recommended to wait and see [49][50][51]. 2.16 Energy - Chemical Products (Styrene) - The weekly production and capacity utilization of styrene decreased. The trading focus shifted back to domestic supply and demand. The inventory in East China was expected to increase, and it was recommended to pay attention to the implementation of pure - benzene maintenance plans and treat it as range - bound in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.17 Energy - Chemical Products (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased due to weak demand. The supply was abundant, and inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term futures price was expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether supply would shrink due to profit compression [54][55][56]. 2.18 Energy - Chemical Products (PVC) - The price of PVC powder had a narrow - range adjustment. The supply was expected to increase, and demand was suppressed by the weak real - estate market. It was recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [57][58][59]. 2.19 Energy - Chemical Products (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased this week. The supply decreased slightly, and demand increased. In the short term, the fundamentals of soda ash had some support, but it was recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term and short far - month contracts on rallies [60][61][62]. 2.20 Energy - Chemical Products (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased slightly this week. The futures price rose due to rumors of production line shutdowns. Attention should be paid to the risk of short - covering rebounds caused by news - related disturbances [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity, but consumer spending has declined, and the downward pressure on the economic fundamentals persists, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. The A-share market remains in a state of shrinking trading volume, and the market may enter a period of wait - and - see due to the marginal decline in liquidity. The bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline, but it remains weak in the near term. Steel prices are oscillating, with limited upward drivers. Nickel investors can consider closing short positions and potentially going long. Oil prices have rebounded despite an increase in EIA crude inventories [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that tariffs increase corporate financial pressure. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The market's risk appetite remained high, and the expectation of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed was further strengthened. Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the short term [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity but a decline in consumer spending. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market showed shrinking trading volume and divergence. Six departments issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand. The market may enter a wait - and - see period due to the marginal decline in liquidity. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [17][18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 216,000. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity. US economic data indicates that the economy remains resilient, and the market risk appetite has improved. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average can provide strong support [20][21][22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 213.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 9.72 billion yuan. If the new regulations on fund fees are implemented in the short term, the bond market may rebound significantly. Otherwise, the bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline but will remain weak. It is recommended to expect a short - term recovery but remain bearish on the market [24][25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows a 3.24% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 20. The supply pressure on palm oil has eased, and the price has stabilized. It is advisable to wait for subsequent data [27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in December is about 9.048 million tons, and the estimated soybean crushing volume in December is 9.569 million tons. The futures prices of soybeans are expected to remain oscillating. It is necessary to continue to monitor China's purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American producing areas [28][29][30][31]. 2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is weakening. The supply of coking coal is increasing, while the demand for coke from steel mills is seasonally declining. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream restocking situation [32][33]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - November, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.943 million tons. Steel prices are oscillating. The recent increase in steel prices is related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand does not support a significant increase. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [33][35][36]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Three cold air masses will affect China. After the completion of winter stockpiling, coal prices are driven by actual supply and demand. It is necessary to monitor whether the daily coal consumption turns positive in December to support coal prices at a seasonal high [37]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - 230 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. Ore prices are expected to remain high and oscillating in December. It is advisable to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - European copper smelter Aurubis rejects low offers for copper concentrates. AI - driven data centers are becoming a new engine for copper demand. Macro - factors are mixed, and copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to go long on dips [40][41][42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49 per ton. The short - term fundamentals of lead are not weak. It is advisable to close short positions on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2 per ton. There is a risk of a mid - term squeeze on LME zinc. It is recommended to hold long positions in the calendar spread in the short term and exit the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage in a timely manner [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On November 26, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,038 tons. The smelting sector is gradually implementing production cuts, but the balance sheet still shows an oversupply. It is advisable for previous short - sellers to gradually close their positions and consider going long on dips. The situation of resource contraction in Indonesia needs to be evaluated in the medium term [47][48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The UK will include critical mineral reserves in its defense procurement plan. The lithium battery market has optimistic expectations, but there are still differences in short - term market sentiment. It is not recommended to chase the long side. If production resumes and demand weakens in the off - season, it is advisable to go short on the right side. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips [50][51]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased, and EIA commercial crude inventories increased. Oil prices rebounded. It is expected that oil prices will remain oscillating and weak in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased. The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [54][55]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased significantly, but it is not a substantial positive factor. It is not recommended to go short, but it is advisable to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [56][57]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong showed mixed changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The short - term futures price is expected to remain weak. It is necessary to monitor whether supply reduction occurs due to profit compression [58][60][62]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. The decline in inventory supports the urea futures price. It is necessary to continue to monitor the release rhythm of winter storage demand [63][64]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market showed mixed price changes. It is expected that the pulp market will oscillate in the future [65][66]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Chinese ports will resume loading and unloading US soybeans. The spot price of W50 has dropped more than expected, and the European line futures price has declined. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Platinum: Bullish; Palladium: Sideways; Platinum-Palladium Ratio: Bullish [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the significant price increases of platinum and palladium were driven by macro - support and actual spot shortages. The price trends in the first round were more driven by fundamentals, and the second round was largely influenced by the precious metal market. The macro - situation is bullish in the medium - long term but volatile in the short term. The fundamentals are marginally looser but still have room for speculation. The US tariff policy is a crucial variable [1][2][24] - The platinum and palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025. Based on the comparison of listing benchmark prices with domestic spot and Nymex futures prices, different trading strategies are recommended, including unilateral trading, inter - commodity arbitrage, internal - external arbitrage, and inter - period arbitrage [3][10][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum/Palladium Futures Contract Formal Draft - The platinum and palladium futures will be officially listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27, 2025. The first - batch listed contracts and trading rules are specified, and compared with the previous draft for comments, the position limit has been modified [10] - The contract parameters of platinum and palladium futures, including trading unit, price quotation unit, etc., are detailed, and the position limit system is also provided [11][13][14] - Other points to note include the long - term expiration of the first - batch listed contracts, the trading time and its impact on internal - external arbitrage [16] 3.2 Platinum/Palladium Futures Delivery Rules Attention Points - The platinum and palladium futures contracts support futures - to - spot, rolling delivery, and one - time delivery. The delivery is carried out in both warehouses and factories. There are differences in quality requirements between domestic and imported delivery products [17] - The delivery regions, delivery warehouses, and factories for platinum and palladium futures are specified. The first - batch registered brands and delivery forms are also introduced [20][22][23] 3.3 Recent Market Analysis and Outlook - From the beginning of 2025 to November 25, platinum and palladium had significant price increases, but their long - term cumulative increases were different. The price increases were driven by macro - factors and actual spot shortages [24] - The macro - situation is bullish in the medium - long term but volatile in the short term. The fundamentals are marginally looser. In 2026, the supply - demand gap of platinum may narrow, and the supply surplus of palladium may expand [26][27] - The US tariff policy is a key variable. Before the policy is implemented, it will support prices, but if the policy eases, prices may decline. There may be speculative hoarding in the market, and there are uncertainties in domestic prices [2][29][33] - The global mainstream ETF positions have declined recently, but the non - commercial net long positions on Nymex are still high. The net long position of palladium is approaching 0, which may affect some overseas precious metal allocation and quantitative funds [35] 3.4 Initial Listing Strategy Recommendations - The listing benchmark prices of platinum and palladium futures are 405 yuan/gram and 365 yuan/gram respectively. Compared with domestic spot and Nymex futures prices, platinum is slightly undervalued, and palladium is slightly overvalued [38][39] - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to cautiously go long on platinum and wait and see for palladium in the short term [40] - Inter - commodity arbitrage: It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium, waiting for price reversal signals [41] - Internal - external arbitrage: It is recommended to use an interval trading approach and be cautious in actual operations [45] - Inter - period arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see at the initial listing stage as the arbitrage space is limited [45]