棉花：驱动有限，以时间换空间 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 23/08 23/09 23/10 23/11 23/12 24/01 24/02 24/03 24/04 24/05 24/06 24/07 24/08 24/09 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/01 25/02 25/03 CNY/ton USc/lp CF.CZC CT.NYB 东证衍生品研究院农产品组 方慧玲 2025年3月 方慧玲 首席农产品分析师 从业资格号： F3039861 投资咨询号： Z0010565 Tel: 021-63325888-2737 Email:huiling.fang@orientfutures.com 资料来源：Wind 外盘：偏弱震荡、重心下移 1、USDA1月报告上修24/25美棉估产并下修美棉出口预估、2月 报告下修美棉国内消费预估，致使24/25美棉期末库存及库销比 在一季度上修；24/25全球产需过剩预估量由12月份的34.7万吨 拉大至近100万 ...

天然气基本面展望 ——需求缺乏驱动，气价存下行压力 东证衍生品研究院能源与碳中和组 金晓 金晓 首席分析师(能源与碳中和) 从业资格号： F3005393 投资咨询号： Z0012069 二季度天然气市场观点总结 • 我们在年报的标题是"欧强亚弱，气价或1季度见顶"，现在来看，两部分部分得到验证。欧强亚弱是过去一 个取暖季非常突出的特征。2025年1季度，欧洲LNG进口量创历史同期新高，同比增加增长380万吨。同期， 东北亚LNG进口量锐减400万吨。造成欧强亚弱，一方面是因为取暖季欧洲气温偏低，而亚洲气温偏高；另一 方面则是欧洲管道气供应下降，而中国管道气供应增加。为什么我们此前会认为气价会在一季度见顶？主要 原因是进入到淡季之后，需求侧并没有向上的驱动能够持续将气价维持在高位。我们现在依然是这个观点。 • Nymex天然气相较于TTF、JKM是最强的基准，Nymex首行一度到达5USD/MMBtu。在整个曲线结构都在 4USD/MMBtu附近时，供应大概率将会回归。EIA在24年12月对2025年干气产量预期只是小幅增加，我们在 年报中就曾指出其价格预期和产量预期存在相悖。EIA在最新的短期能源展望中将产 ...

周度报告-玉米&玉米淀粉 贸易商信心缺失，变现意愿较强 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 玉米&玉米淀粉：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 3 | 年 | 月 | 30 | 日 [Table_Analyser] | ★[Ta玉ble米_Summary] 一周复盘：贸易商信心不佳，出货意愿较强，山东深加工门前到车 保持高位，现货价格松动，盘面继续走弱。今年市场对政策粮拍卖 的担忧较重，此前饲用定向稻谷拍卖的传闻版本较多，本周托市稻 谷宣布将于 4 月 1 日启动拍卖，被部分参与者误读为定向拍卖，事 实上，食用的托市稻因拍卖价格昂贵，无法进入饲用领域。随着东 北农户余粮逐渐见底，增储预计也逐渐进入尾声，轮储亦从净轮入 转向净轮出状态。 下周观点： 农 产 品 从年度平衡表来看，玉米中长期基本面目前并未改变，笔者认为只 是由于贸易商这一重要市场主体信心缺失，变现意愿强烈，对利空 因素的敏感性更高。近期有草根调研反馈，华北农户和贸易商手中 的小麦库存明显低于此前预期，或已转移到下游饲料厂手中，一方 面，这意味着 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The alumina spot price continued to decline last week, with enterprises in Shanxi and Henan in full - scale losses and some in Shandong on the verge of cash - flow losses. The domestic alumina export window is closed, and overseas supply pressure will increase further. Although the supply side has some reduction due to losses, new capacity is being released rapidly. The alumina market is still under supply - demand pressure, but the price valuation is not high, and the futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [3][13][15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices decreased last week. After the Two Sessions, the mine resource integration policy deepened, and some mines were shut down. Imported bauxite from Guinea maintained high - volume shipments. Newly arrived ore was 448.6 million tons, including 341.8 million tons from Guinea and 89.4 million tons from Australia [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price continued to fall. Shanxi, Henan, and some Shandong enterprises faced losses. The domestic alumina export window closed. Some enterprises in the Jin - Yu region entered the cash - cost loss stage, with some planning maintenance or reducing production. New capacity was put into operation in some regions. The national alumina production capacity was 10922 million tons, with 9130 million tons in operation, a decrease of 160 million tons from last week, and the operating rate was 83.6% [13] - **Demand**: Domestically, some electrolytic aluminum plants increased production, with the domestic operating capacity increasing by 7 million tons to 4384.8 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the operating capacity at 2935.8 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the national alumina inventory was 337 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons from last week. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises generally reduced inventory days, and alumina enterprise inventory increased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 309097 tons, an increase of 20426 tons from last week [15] 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain during the Week - 0.3 million tons of alumina were traded in the Guizhou market at an ex - factory price of 3100 yuan/ton, flowing to the Sichuan - Chongqing region - 0.5 million tons of alumina from the Guangxi market were purchased by Yunnan aluminum plants at a delivered price of 3100 yuan/ton - 3 million tons of alumina were traded in East Australia at an FOB price of 375 US dollars/ton [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The data includes domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][25] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: The data shows domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [31][33][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The data covers the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the quantity of alumina warehouse receipts and positions on the SHFE [42][45][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating; Polysilicon: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there were many disturbances on the supply side of industrial silicon. The market rumors of production cuts by large factories had limited impact on the market. For polysilicon, prices oscillated this week, with expected inventory reduction in April and potential price pressure after May. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continued to rise this week, but may face price adjustments after the peak installation season [2][3][11][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2505 contract of industrial silicon increased by 85 yuan/ton week-on-week to 9855 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 10200 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 9450 yuan/ton. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon increased by 135 yuan/ton to 43650 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N-type reclaimed feedstock remained flat week-on-week at 41700 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Supply Disturbances Frequent, Polysilicon to Start Warehouse Receipt Registration Soon Industrial Silicon - This week, the industrial silicon futures oscillated. The weekly output was 78,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.78%. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 13,000 tons week-on-week, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 6200 tons week-on-week. There were many supply-side disturbances this week, but the market reaction was weak [11] Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon slightly declined. The overall operating rate was around 67.5%, a week-on-week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The weekly output was 44,700 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.22%, and the inventory was 48,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.3%. It is expected that the price center of organic silicon will continue to move up [12] Polysilicon - This week, the price of polysilicon oscillated. As of March 23, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 253,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 14,000 tons. The industry-wide inventory was about 450,000 tons. In April, the polysilicon production schedule was adjusted down to 98,000 tons, and it is expected to reduce inventory by more than 30,000 tons. After May, the spot price may face pressure again [3][12] Silicon Wafers - This week, the price of silicon wafers continued to rise, and there was obvious inventory reduction. As of March 23, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 19.7GW, a week-on-week decrease of 3.1GW. In April, the downstream production schedule continued to increase. The earthquake in Myanmar may lead to a short-term reduction in silicon wafer output and stimulate price increases, but prices may not remain high after the peak installation season [13] Battery Cells - This week, the price of battery cells continued to rise, and there was obvious inventory reduction. As of March 24, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 1.51GW, a week-on-week decrease of 0.42GW. In April, the domestic battery cell production schedule continued to increase. It is expected that there is still room for price increases in the short term, but prices may loosen after the peak installation season [14] Components - This week, the price of components continued to rise. It is estimated that the component production schedule will increase to 68GW in April. The subsequent component prices are still optimistic, but the price increase may converge [14] 3.3 Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - The upper limit of the industrial silicon futures price depends on the hedging point, and the lower limit needs to consider factors such as the large-scale production cuts of small northern factories. The futures price may operate between 9500 - 10500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the interval trading opportunities and the reverse arbitrage opportunity of Si2511 - Si2512 [4][17] Polysilicon - March - April may be the best fundamental period for the photovoltaic industry chain this year. It is expected that the price of N-type dense reclaimed feedstock will still be supported. After May, the spot price may face pressure again. In April, polysilicon will start warehouse receipt registration. Unilateral trading can consider going long on PS2506 at low prices and shorting PS2511 at high prices. The positive arbitrage of PS2506 - PS2511 can be held [4][17] 3.4 Hot News Compilation - Germany's new round of photovoltaic auctions awarded 317MW of capacity, and the winning bid price increased. - The production cut amplitude of organic silicon in April was determined, and the consumption of industrial silicon is expected to decrease by more than 10,000 tons. - The earthquake in Myanmar had an impact on the silicon wafer production in the western region of China, but had little impact on the supply and demand of polysilicon [18] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, inventory, and other data [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the stock index is "oscillation" [1][4] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the global stock market turned from rising to falling, and the Chinese stock market also had a volume - shrinking correction. The US tariff increase led to a significant shock in the risk appetite of the global stock market. Chinese A - share investors are gradually taking risk - aversion operations and shifting their positions to blue - chip indexes. In April, both reciprocal tariffs and corporate earnings reports will pose significant tests to the market [2][10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - **Next - week's view**: The US tariff increase has made the market turn to defense. The global stock market has been affected, and Chinese investors are taking risk - aversion measures. April will be a challenging month for the market [10] - **This week's key events**: - On March 24, multiple events occurred, including a 1.6% year - on - year decline in general public budget revenue from January to February, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security increasing financial support for stabilizing and expanding employment, the implementation of the inland waterway connectivity project, the revision of the "Regulations on Guaranteeing Payment of Small and Medium - sized Enterprises' Payments", and the change of MLF to a multi - price winning bid method [11][12][13][14][16] - On March 25, the 2025 Asian economic growth rate is expected to reach 4.5%, and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out a pilot reform of automobile circulation and consumption [17][18] - On March 26, the State Council and the Ministry of Commerce support the construction of international consumption - center cities, and Vice - Premier He Lifeng had a video call with the US Trade Representative [19][20] - On March 27, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size from January to February decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, the implementation of the offshore trade stamp - duty preferential policy continued, the 5th China International Consumer Products Expo was scheduled to be held from April 13 to 18, and Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars [21][22][23][24] - On March 28, President Xi Jinping met with representatives of the international business community, and the State Council Executive Meeting deployed work to accelerate the clearance of overdue payments to enterprises [25][26] 3.2 One - Week Market Quotes Overview - **Global stock market weekly overview**: From March 24 - 28, the global stock market denominated in US dollars declined. The MSCI Global Index fell 1.44%, with frontier markets (+0.89%) > emerging markets (-0.94%) > developed markets (-1.49%). The Saudi stock market led the world with a 2.07% increase, while the South Korean stock market had the worst performance with a 3.53% decline [27] - **Chinese stock market weekly overview**: In the Chinese equity market, A - shares > Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1261 billion yuan, a decrease of 288.9 billion yuan from last week. The style of A - share broad - based indexes reversed, with the Shanghai 50 rising 0.16% and the micro - cap stock index falling 4.45% [30] - **Weekly overview of GICS primary industries in Chinese and foreign stock markets**: Most global GICS primary industries closed down this week. The consumer staples industry rose 1.01%, performing well, while the information technology industry had the worst performance with a 3.65% decline. In the Chinese market, information technology led the decline (-3.22%), and healthcare led the rise (+1.13%) [33] - **Weekly overview of China A - share CITIC primary industries**: Among A - share CITIC primary industries, 5 rose and 25 fell this week. The leading industry was pharmaceuticals (+1.04%), and the lagging industry was computers (-4.84%) [35] - **Weekly overview of China A - share style**: The large - cap value style was dominant [39] - **Overview of futures index basis**: Relevant data on the basis of futures indexes such as IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months were presented [45][43] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - based index valuation**: Valuation data such as PE and PB of broad - based indexes like the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, etc., were provided, along with their changes since the beginning of the year [48] - **Primary industry valuation**: Valuation data of primary industries including petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc., were presented, along with their changes since the beginning of the year [49] - **Broad - based index equity risk premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [50][54] - **Broad - based index consensus expected earnings growth rate**: The expected earnings growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 in different years were adjusted [56] 3.4 Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest rates and exchange rates**: This week, the 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields declined, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 104, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.26 [63] - **Trading - type capital tracking**: The average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 27.2 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance decreased by 11 billion yuan [67] - **Tracking of funds flowing in through ETFs**: The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 800 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 300 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 400 million shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 increased by 2.2 billion shares [71][75] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data - **Supply side**: The blast furnace operation rate increased seasonally [78] - **Consumption side**: The number of second - hand housing listings decreased, and international oil prices fluctuated. The year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales declined, and the crude oil price rebounded slightly to around $74.6 per barrel [87][97] - **Inflation observation**: Agricultural product prices stabilized and rebounded, while production material prices fluctuated at a low level [99][100]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Market risk appetite has declined, with most global stock markets falling, bond yields mostly dropping, the US dollar index slightly down, non - US currencies mostly depreciating, gold prices rising, and the VIX index increasing. The US is facing rising stagflation pressure, and the market is waiting for the details of US counter - tariffs on April 2nd [2][10] - Trump's tariff policies are disturbing the market, increasing inflation expectations and the risk of stagflation. The US economic data shows rising inflation pressure, and the inflation expectations have risen ahead of actual inflation [3][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite decreased. Most stock markets fell, bond yields mostly declined with the US Treasury yield at 4.25%. The US dollar index slightly dropped to 104, non - US currencies mostly depreciated, gold rose 2.1% to $3085 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 21.6, and the spot commodity index increased with Brent crude oil up 2.7% to $74.4 per barrel [2][10] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly fell. In developed countries, the S&P 500 dropped 1.53%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%. Trump's tariff policies increased risk - aversion and pressured US stocks. US economic data showed rising inflation pressure, and the US manufacturing PMI declined while the service PMI improved. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI rose but the service PMI declined. The US core PCE rebounded, and inflation expectations increased [11][12] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield at 4.25%. Eurozone countries' yields mostly fell, and emerging market bond yields varied. US tariff policies supported the bond market, but rising inflation expectations limited the decline of US Treasury yields. The US dollar's stabilization increased pressure on emerging market bonds and exchange rates [15][18] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index oscillated and slightly declined to 104, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB fell 0.18%, the euro and the pound rose slightly, the yen fell 0.35%, and commodity - related currencies mostly weakened [26][29] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold rose 2.1% to a new high of $3085 per ounce as investors sought safety due to tariff policies and stock market declines. However, short - term gold prices may be volatile. Brent crude oil rose 2.7% to $74.4 per barrel, and commodities overall oscillated and increased. Overseas tariff expectations boosted non - ferrous metals, but weak demand pressured industrial products [30][32] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The US core PCE in February exceeded expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. This indicates high short - term inflation pressure. Trump's proposed 25% tariff on imported cars and the upcoming counter - tariffs are expected to intensify market concerns, leading to a continuous decline in global market risk appetite and rising inflation [33][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: China's official manufacturing PMI for March - Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, eurozone's March CPI, US March ISM manufacturing PMI, and US February JOLTs job openings - Wednesday: US March ADP employment figures - Thursday: US weekly initial jobless claims, US March ISM non - manufacturing PMI, and ECB's March interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: US March non - farm payrolls, Fed Chairman Powell's speech, and China's Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate as the stance of monetary policy remains unclear. The manufacturing PMI in March may perform well, weakening market sentiment at the beginning of the week. However, after the quarter - end, the pressure on the capital side will ease, and the bullish sentiment in the market will heat up again, with the yield curve likely to steepen [2][14]. - The bond market is in an oscillatory phase of transitioning from a bear to a bull market. The short - end varieties are expected to outperform the long - end ones. The probability of the long - end interest rate breaking through the mid - March high is low unless there is evidence of continuous economic recovery in Q2 [15][16]. - The second half of April is an important observation period to determine whether the monetary policy can continue to loosen. The bond market is expected to show an oscillatory trend [16]. Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From March 24th to March 30th, treasury bond futures rose slightly. The settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures on March 28th were 102.448, 105.665, 107.885, and 116.080 yuan respectively, up 0.080, 0.345, 0.420, and 0.870 yuan from the previous weekend [13]. 1.2 Next Week's Views - The market is expected to oscillate. The manufacturing PMI in March may perform well, weakening market sentiment at the beginning of the week. After the quarter - end, the capital pressure will ease, and the bullish sentiment will rise again, with the curve likely to steepen [2][14]. - The long - end interest rate has upward momentum, but the probability of breaking through the mid - March high is low. The short - end varieties may outperform the long - end ones, and the bond market will show an oscillatory trend [15][16]. 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 92 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 822.801 billion yuan and a net financing of 691.865 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds and treasury bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [19][20]. 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of March 28th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.53%, 1.66%, 1.81%, and 2.03% respectively, down 4.42, 3.25, 2.28, and 2.50 basis points from the previous weekend [24]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures rose slightly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 37,714, 56,180, 75,843, and 120,289 lots respectively, down 5,100, 7,655, 12,821, and 21,531 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 108,554, 162,825, 190,066, and 113,822 lots respectively, up 4,609, 10,014, 672, and down 6,184 lots from the previous weekend [34][37]. 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the basis of each variety oscillated at a low level. In the short term, the market is oscillatory, and the basis is also in a low - level oscillation pattern. One can moderately focus on the positive arbitrage strategy of TS. After Q2, the capital side is expected to loosen, and the basis may gradually rise [41]. 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of March 28th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2506 - 2509 were - 0.032, - 0.020, - 0.040, and - 0.120 yuan respectively, up 0.010, 0.000, down 0.105, and up 0.010 yuan from the previous weekend [44]. 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 30.36 billion yuan. As of March 28th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 2.26%, 2.05%, 1.73%, and 1.94% respectively, up 43.91, 28.21, down 3.20, and up 18.20 basis points from the previous weekend [49][50]. 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield oscillated. As of March 28th, the US dollar index fell 0.12% to 104.0336 from the previous weekend, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.27%, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds was inverted by 245.6 basis points [57]. 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices and agricultural product prices both rose. As of March 28th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,761.81, 6,431.0, and 1,780.64 points respectively, up 48.47, 83.56, and 22.40 points from the previous weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.94, 4.84, and 7.58 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.05, 0.01, and 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [60]. 7. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate. Considering the relatively reasonable valuation of the bond market and the expected gradual loosening of the central bank's stance, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of laying out medium - term long positions on the left side [19][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices rebounded from the low level. The closing prices of LC2504 and LC2505 increased by 1.1% and 1% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.2%. The prices of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased. The basic data still reflects the oversupply of lithium salt and the loosening of ore prices, but the pressure on lithium prices has weakened marginally. Core Lithium's Finnis project restart research is progressing smoothly, which may lead to a marginal decline in the cost support at the resource end. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts next Monday, the generation speed of new warehouse receipts needs to be continuously monitored [2][3][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Finniss Restart Research Progresses Smoothly, Focus on the Generation Rhythm of New Warehouse Receipts - Last week (03/24 - 03/28), lithium salt prices rebounded from the low level. The closing price of LC2504 increased by 1.1% to 73,900 yuan/ton, and that of LC2505 increased by 1% to 74,000 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate decreased by 0.2% to 74,200 and 72,200 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the near - month contract of Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate increased by 1.4% to 74,000 yuan/ton. The prices of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased. The electric - industrial price difference remained flat at 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate remained flat at 4,500 yuan/ton [2][11] - Fundamentally, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate decreased by 628 tons to 17,300 tons, mainly due to the maintenance of some mica production lines and small fluctuations in salt lake output. The social inventory increased by 1,500 tons to 128,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down for the second consecutive week. The FMB ore price continued to decline to 837.5 US dollars/ton, and the price adjustment speed slowed down marginally compared with the previous week. In general, the fundamental data still reflects the two major negatives of salt - end oversupply and ore price loosening, but in the absence of new negatives, the pressure of fundamentals on lithium prices has weakened marginally. In terms of news, Core Lithium announced that the restart research of its Finnis project is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to reduce the subsequent operating costs through various means. The final restart research is expected to be completed in June 2025. During the industry downturn, the cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement measures of various projects may lead to a marginal decline in the cost support at the resource end. In terms of delivery game, the position of the main contract LC2505 decreased by 38,000 lots to 218,000 lots. It is estimated that the cumulative amount of warehouse receipts put into storage since February is about 18,000 lots. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts next Monday, the generation speed of new warehouse receipts needs to be continuously monitored [3][12] 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Rio Tinto Group CEO Simon Trott said that the global annual demand for lithium may increase to 4 - 5 million tons in the future. Despite the current low lithium price, Rio Tinto is increasing its lithium industry layout. In March this year, Rio Tinto completed the acquisition of Allkem Limited for 6.7 billion US dollars [13] - ICE plans to launch battery - metal derivatives this year. An executive of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) said on March 25 that the exchange plans to launch derivatives of battery metals nickel, cobalt, and spodumene in London later this year [13] - Core Lithium announced that the restart research of its Finniss lithium mine project is progressing smoothly and is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2025. The company has terminated the last operation contract during the Finniss operation period and completed all obligations to third - parties, which reduces the current maintenance cost and is expected to reduce future operating costs under the new operation mode [13] - Four Indian state - owned enterprises are negotiating with Chilean miner SQM to acquire a 20% stake in its two lithium projects in Australia for 600 million US dollars, which is India's biggest effort to ensure the supply of key electric - vehicle battery metals [14] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Loosen - The spot average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased from 831 US dollars/ton to 821 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.2% [12] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Futures Prices Rebound Slightly - The closing price of the near - month contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate (LC2504) increased by 1.1% to 73,940 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract (LC2505) increased by 1% to 74,000 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate increased by 1.4% to 74 yuan/kg [12] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Decline - The spot average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.1% to 33,635 yuan/ton, and the spot average price of energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.1% to 29,805 yuan/ton. The prices of ternary materials increased slightly, with the spot average price of ternary material 523 increasing by 1.2% to 104,280 yuan/ton. The spot average price of cobalt - acid lithium decreased by 0.5% to 209,000 yuan/ton [12] 3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in China Rebounded in February - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rebounded in February, but specific data is not provided in the text [44]

美元二季度观点 东证衍生品研究院 元涛 从业资格号：F0286099 投资咨询号：Z0012850 美国经济-劳动力市场走弱速度不足 薪资增速继续维持韧性 服务业薪资增速边际回升 资料来源：Bloomberg 东证衍生品研究院 美国劳动力市场新增就业的水平中枢降低，但是薪资增速环比继续维持在较高水平，服务业薪资增 速边际回升。这意味着短期内劳动力市场走弱速度不够快，薪资增速对于通胀继续形成支撑。 美国经济-通胀明显上升 通胀预期上升 与此同时，通胀继续成为核心矛盾，通胀降低速度不及预期，尤其是核心服务通胀还在高位，通胀 预期持续上升。这表明了通胀粘性是个非常明显的问题，服务业通胀走弱速度太慢。 美国经济-滞胀压力明显上升 地产市场继续处于弱势 资料来源：Bloomberg 东证衍生品研究院 通胀压力回升 核心服务业通胀压力高企 资料来源：Bloomberg 经济下行压力明显上升，滞胀从无人问津转向趋向现实。 服务业PMI明显回落 消费者信心迅速走低 美国经济-美联储维持耐心 美联储降息非常犹豫 财政和货币政策边际效应递减 资料来源：Bloomberg 东证衍生品研究院 失业率维持低位，通胀压力上升，美联储不可 ...