Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Fed officials' dovish stance on the labor market has increased market expectations of a December rate cut, boosting risk - asset sentiment [1][2][10][13] - The conversation between Chinese and US leaders is significant for mitigating local risks and resolving ambiguous issues [2][17] - Various commodities have different market conditions, with some in a state of supply - demand imbalance and others affected by policy and external factors [3][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed officials Waller and Daly support a December rate cut, increasing market rate - cut expectations and risk appetite [10] - Gold prices are oscillating around $4000, and their trend depends on the Fed's stance. Gold price volatility has increased due to internal Fed differences [10] - Investment advice: Gold prices will continue to oscillate with increased volatility [11] 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials Waller and Daly worry about the labor market and support a December rate cut, but official economic data lags, and there is still room for short - term rate - cut expectation games [12][13] - The VIX index remains above 20, and market volatility has not fully subsided, but market sentiment has improved [13] - Investment advice: Adopt a generally bullish approach and wait for market volatility to decrease [14] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In October, high - tech industry sales revenue increased by 13.6% year - on - year, with high - tech services and manufacturing maintaining double - digit growth [15] - The conversation between Chinese and US leaders and the Fed's dovish signal have boosted global risk assets [17] - Investment advice: Long - position investors can slightly increase their exposure [18] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a net injection of 557 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. The market still expects real - estate stabilization policies, and bond yields rose slightly [19] - The inter - delivery spread of Treasury bond futures is narrowing. As the policy window approaches the end, the bond market may turn bearish [19][20] - Investment advice: The bond market may turn from oscillation to bearish. Consider short - term short - selling strategies [21] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export inspection report met expectations, with 799,000 tons of US soybeans inspected for export in the week ending November 20 [22] - Domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory increased to 1.1515 million tons, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [24][25] - Investment advice: Due to high inventory and cost support, soybean meal futures prices are expected to oscillate [25] 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In October, the national average construction machinery start - up rate was 45.56%, with a 1.4% month - on - month increase [26] - 227 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation [27] - Steel prices have rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have limited changes. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [27] - Investment advice: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices [28] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of November 21, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils increased by 0.10 million tons month - on - month and 253,000 tons year - on - year [29] - Palm oil is under supply pressure, and soybean oil is affected by palm oil and US soybean oil [31] - Investment advice: Palm oil is expected to continue to decline, and the market is waiting for MPOA's production estimate for November 1 - 20 [31] 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is weak, with production increasing and some coal mines reducing prices [32] - Coke market expectations have weakened due to falling coking coal prices, and demand is also weakening [33] - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to downstream replenishment in the coking coal market, and coke will follow the coking coal trend [34] 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - As of November 24, the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and there was a regional supply shortage [34] - LME lead prices stabilized around the MA60, and domestic lead futures funds' attention declined [35] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, short - position holders should look for opportunities to stop losses at low prices; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [35] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - As of November 24, domestic zinc inventory decreased, and LME zinc inventory increased slightly [36] - There is a risk of a medium - term squeeze in LME zinc, and domestic demand has not improved significantly [37] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, hold long - short position spreads and short - term domestic - foreign spreads [37] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business by MMG is subject to EU review, and the review time is uncertain [38] - An Indonesian MHP project is expected to cut production by 6,000 metal tons in December, which will improve the supply - demand balance to some extent [39] - Investment advice: Short - position holders can gradually stop losses, and consider lightly - weighted long - position entry at low prices [39] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe's lithium concentrate shipments in Q3 2025 reached a record high, and these shipments will arrive in China in Q4 [40] - The futures exchange has increased handling fees and restricted daily opening positions, and the market is under pressure [41] - Investment advice: In the short term, consider short - selling at high prices, as the supply - demand balance may change at the end of the year and in Q1 next year [42] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Ivanhoe Mines and Qatar cooperate in African mineral exploration, and Tibet Yulong Copper's technical transformation project is put into operation [43][44] - The Fed's dovish stance has a wavering impact on copper prices, and domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down [44] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, copper prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [45] 2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia's Tuapse refinery has resumed operation, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine negotiation [46] - Oil prices are oscillating, and in the long term, trade flows may recover, but there is a possibility of short - term supply reduction [47] - Investment advice: Oil prices will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short term [48] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of November 24, asphalt factory and social inventories decreased, but supply is expected to increase [49] - The asphalt market fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially, and it will maintain an oscillatory adjustment in the short term [49] - Investment advice: Asphalt will oscillate in the short term [50] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - On November 24, methanol prices in the Taicang market rose sharply due to news of Iranian plant shutdowns [51][52] - The current price increase is a rebound, and the 01 contract fundamentals will not change significantly [52] - Investment advice: Maintain the view of short - selling after the rebound and wait for a better entry opportunity [52] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On November 24, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and downstream demand did not improve [53] - Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak, with no positive support in the future [53] - Investment advice: The caustic soda market will remain weak in the short term, and pay attention to supply reduction due to profit compression [54] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - On November 24, the PVC powder market price oscillated strongly, but downstream procurement was inactive [55] - PVC supply is expected to increase, and demand is restricted by the real - estate market, but the export potential pressure has dissipated [56] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach for near - term contracts and consider long - term layout for far - term contracts [56] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In October 2025, urea imports increased by 10.29% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 12.30% month - on - month [58] - Urea prices are oscillating, and inventory is decreasing. Supply may increase in the short term, and demand is slightly accelerating [59] - Investment advice: The 01 contract will operate in the range of 1560 - 1760 yuan/ton, and inventory data is an important reference [60] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of November 24, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports increased, and the supply - demand situation has limited marginal changes [61][62] - The styrene market is affected by overseas markets, and the upward space is limited [62] - Investment advice: The market is under pressure due to overseas oil - blending logic weakening and port inventory accumulation [63] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of November 24, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and the futures price rose slightly [64] - Soda ash supply is expected to increase, and demand is average. The spot price provides some support [64] - Investment advice: In the short term, there is some support, but in the medium term, adopt a bearish approach and short - sell far - term contracts at high prices [64] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On November 24, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased slightly, but the futures price rose due to production line shutdown news [65] - Glass valuation is low, and the 01 contract is under pressure, but there is a risk of short - covering rebound [65] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the support around 950 yuan/ton for the 01 contract and the risk of short - covering rebound [65]

周度报告——光伏玻璃 行业重回亏损阶段，库存压力持续增长 上周光伏玻璃供给端保持稳定，暂无厂家冷修或点火。目前国内 光伏玻璃在产产能 89380 吨/天，环比持平，产能利用率 67.71%， 亦环比持平。预计本月底前有单座窑炉存在冷修预期，供给将开 始下行。目前行业重回亏损阶段，各生产企业压力较大。 能 源 化 目前光伏玻璃需求表现仍偏弱，多家企业反馈订单不足情况。主 要因为下游组件端近期存在抬价情况，而终端电站较难接受，上 下游持续博弈，导致组件厂家的光伏玻璃拿货量减少。 工 上周光伏玻璃厂家库存继续增长，预计短期需求弱势难改，库存 量将持续上行。 上周光伏玻璃行业毛利率继续走弱，目前毛利率约为-2.03%。当 前天然气陆续开始执行冬气价，成本有所上涨，而光伏玻璃价格 预期下行，行业重回亏损阶段。 ★ 供需分析： 由于光伏玻璃基本面表现偏弱，后期不排除价格继续调整的可 能。 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 11 月 24 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/11/21 当周）： 截至 11 月 21 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 13 元/平方米，环比上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine solution proposed by the US is limited, with short - term market risk appetite stabilizing and the US dollar showing a volatile trend [2][15]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is fermenting, the market sentiment is stabilizing, but concerns about the AI bubble remain. The US stock market rebounds, but the technology sector lags in gains [3]. - Although the A - share market has experienced a significant correction, it is expected to stabilize the decline in the future due to the easing of US liquidity expectations, support for AI performance, and China's policy support for the stock market [4]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; oil prices continue to decline; and the prices of some agricultural products are affected by factors such as production volume and policy [5][6]. Summaries by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - New York Fed President Williams said there is room for an interest rate cut in December, and the Russian central bank sold some physical gold reserves. Short - term gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a risk of decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be cautious of the risk of decline in the short - term volatile gold market [12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US is reported to be ready to take action against Venezuela, and the European leaders think the US's Russia - Ukraine peace plan needs improvement. The US - Ukraine Geneva talks are considered "fruitful", but the Russia - Ukraine solution has limited progress, and the US dollar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13][14][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on the December interest rate cut. The US service industry growth accelerated in November, while the manufacturing industry slowed down. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate upward after the market volatility decreases [17][18]. - Investment advice: Be less pessimistic about the US stock market at the end of the year, and wait for the market volatility to decrease [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Trump administration may approve Nvidia's sales of some AI chips to China, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting. The A - share market is expected to stabilize the decline [20][21]. - Investment advice: There may be a small rebound in the short term, but a trend - following opportunity requires more policy changes [22]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 375 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is affected by factors such as the redemption pressure of structured products and concerns about the stock market rebound. The bond market is expected to turn from volatile to bearish, and short - term short - selling strategies are recommended [23][24]. - Investment advice: The bond market may turn bearish, and short - term short - selling strategies can be considered [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills last week was 2.3344 million tons, and it is expected to slightly decrease this week. The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the cost and supply - demand situation jointly affect the price. - Investment advice: The soybean meal market is currently "supported by cost and suppressed by supply - demand", and continue to pay attention to China's soybean procurement and South American production expectations [26]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US Department of Energy reorganized to prioritize fossil fuels and nuclear energy. From November 1 to 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10.32% month - on - month. - Investment advice: For palm oil, wait and see on the long - short side and consider 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunities; for rapeseed oil, the overall trend is expected to be weakly volatile [27][28][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - In October 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year. Indian sugar mills are gradually starting to crush, and the NFCSF urges the Indian government to raise the minimum sugar selling price. - Investment advice: Do not be optimistic about the downside space of ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar's January contract, and be cautious about short - selling [30][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October 2025, China's cotton imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while cotton yarn imports increased. The US cotton export sign - up continued to rise. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with an estimated range of 13,300 - 13,800 yuan; be cautiously optimistic in the long term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [35][39][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In 2025, China's long - product exports to Saudi Arabia almost doubled. In October, the global crude steel production was 143.3 million tons. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile mindset when dealing with steel prices [42][44][46]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch widened. - Investment advice: The price difference is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and band trading is recommended [47][48][49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn selling progress in Northeast and North China is faster than the same period last year. - Investment advice: Corn prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. Wait and see for the near - month contracts and do not short them for now [50][52]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vedanta plans to invest $2 billion in Saudi copper and gold resources, and China Non - Ferrous Mining's Qianbixi Southeast Orebody is temporarily shut down. European copper manufacturers warn of a copper shortage. - Investment advice: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [53][55][56]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Two leading silicon wafer companies lowered their quotes. The polysilicon market is affected by factors such as policy and demand. - Investment advice: The futures main contract of polysilicon may operate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range trading opportunities [57][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The shipments of northern silicon enterprises increased. The export of industrial silicon decreased more than expected. - Investment advice: The industrial silicon market may fluctuate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton in the short term. Pay attention to range trading opportunities [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ruitai New Materials plans to jointly invest 200 million yuan in Terui Lianteng. The futures price limit - down due to regulatory measures. - Investment advice: The short - term futures price may face pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies with a light position [62][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Some nickel intermediate product projects in an Indonesian park are expected to reduce production. - Investment advice: Existing short - positions can gradually take profits, and consider going long on dips with a light position. Evaluate the resource contraction in Indonesia in the medium term [66][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Garpenberg mine in Sweden was approved to expand its environmental permit. The LME lead inventory increased. - Investment advice: Take profits at low levels in the short term for the long - short side; wait and see for arbitrage and cross - market trading [68][69][70]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME 0 - 3 zinc premium is high, and the Garpenberg mine in Sweden was approved to expand its environmental permit. - Investment advice: Wait and see on the long - short side; hold long - spread positions for calendar spread arbitrage and short - spread positions for cross - market arbitrage in the short term [71][72]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 21, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 80.41 euros/ton. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [73][74]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. Oil prices continued to decline. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the prospects of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations. Oil prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term [75][76]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The prices of different pulp varieties in the import market showed different trends. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate in the future [77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly lowered. - Investment advice: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips is not prominent, and the absolute price mainly follows the fluctuations of polyester raw materials [78][81]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the South China market was stable on November 21. - Investment advice: In the short term, the soda ash market has certain support; in the medium term, adopt a bearish mindset and consider short - selling far - month contracts on rallies [82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased on November 21. - Investment advice: The January contract of float glass is under pressure. Pay attention to the support at 950 yuan/ton and the risk of short - covering rebounds caused by news [83][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatile [1] - Polysilicon: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon has weak fundamental drivers, and its balance sheet may be less optimistic than expected due to lower - than - expected exports and the impact of the silicone "anti - involution" movement. The short - term price may fluctuate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4][11][16]. - The contradiction between the fundamentals and the policy side of polysilicon is increasing. The spot price of leading enterprises is expected to remain stable, while the low - price supply of small and medium - sized factories may decline slightly. The futures main contract may operate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton [3][4][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,960 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,550 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon decreased by 685 yuan/ton to 53,360 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53,200 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Speculation Boosts Industrial Silicon Price, and Silicon Wafers Lower Quotes Again - **Industrial silicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated widely. Furnace numbers in Xinjiang decreased by 4, in Yunnan by 2, increased by 2 in Inner Mongolia, and by 1 in Gansu. In December, the number of open furnaces in Sichuan is expected to be within 10, and in Yunnan around 12. Social and factory inventories increased. In October, exports were 45,000 tons, a 35.82% month - on - month decrease [11]. - **Organic silicon**: The price increased significantly under the "anti - involution" movement. A new price mechanism and supply - side dynamic regulation mechanism were established. The overall market is in a wait - and - see state [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated. Leading manufacturers' prices remained stable, while low - price ranges showed signs of loosening. Production in November is expected to drop to 115,000 tons, and factory inventory reached 271,000 tons as of November 20 [3][13]. - **Silicon wafers**: Prices declined significantly. As of November 20, inventory was 18.72GW. The M10 model has fallen into a cash - loss state [14]. - **Battery cells**: Prices continued to decline. As of November 17, inventory was 10.21GW. Battery cell manufacturers are in a cash - flow loss state [14]. - **Components**: Prices were basically stable. Demand declined, and there are concerns about a significant drop in production in December [15]. 3. Investment Recommendations - **Industrial silicon**: Pay attention to range - trading opportunities between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4][16]. - **Polysilicon**: Focus on range - trading opportunities for the futures main contract between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton [4][16]. 4. Hot News Compilation - Two leading silicon wafer companies lowered quotes due to insufficient orders. - In October 2025, industrial silicon exports were 45,073 tons, a 35.82% month - on - month and 30.78% year - on - year decrease. - Anhui's mechanism electricity prices for 2025 - 2026 were announced, with a total scale of 5.8677 billion kWh, using 65% of the planned mechanism electricity [17]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking in the Industry Chain - **Industrial silicon**: Data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory in different regions are presented [19][22][25]. - **Organic silicon**: Information on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production is provided [31][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory inventory, and weekly production are included [37][38]. - **Silicon wafers**: Information on spot prices, factory inventory, and weekly production is shown [39][41]. - **Battery cells**: Data on spot prices, profit calculations, export factory inventory, and monthly production are presented [46][49][50]. - **Components**: Information on spot prices, profit calculations, finished - product inventory, and monthly production is provided [53][56][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Oscillation; Lead: Oscillation [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas zinc mine production supply continues to be released, while lead mine production is slightly lower than expected. The total zinc concentrate output of overseas sample mining enterprises in Q3 2025 was 1.357 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 123,000 metal tons (YoY + 9.9%); the lead concentrate output was 309,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6,000 metal tons (YoY - 2%) [2][12]. - The production guidance has increased marginally, and the TC of lead and zinc mines is under pressure. The total production guidance of sample enterprises in Q3 2025 has increased marginally, with the year - on - year growth rate of production guidance slightly increasing from 4% to 4.1% (accounting for 31.5% of overseas mine production) [3]. - For investment suggestions, in terms of zinc, from a unilateral perspective, zinc prices have stronger upward elasticity, but the opening of the upward space needs further improvement in fundamentals. In terms of arbitrage, short - term spreads are strengthening, and long - spread positions can be held; the logic of short - term internal - external reverse arbitrage is smooth, but inventory risks should be watched out for. In terms of lead, from a unilateral perspective, short positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of stopping profits at low levels. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for spreads, and internal - external long - spread arbitrage has a more appropriate profit - loss ratio, but domestic warehouse receipt risks should be watched out for [4][57]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview Recently, overseas leading mining enterprises have basically announced their production and operation in Q3 2025. Only a few mining enterprises have adjusted their production guidance for 2025. This report statistically analyzes the lead and zinc concentrate output and production guidance of 31 overseas leading mining enterprises and forecasts future changes in overseas mines [11]. 3.2 Zinc Mineral Supply Continues to Be Released, and Lead Mine Production Is Slightly Lower Than Expected - Zinc concentrate: The output of overseas sample zinc concentrate in Q3 2025 was 1.357 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 123,000 metal tons (YoY + 9.9%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 15,000 metal tons (QoQ - 1.1%). The global zinc concentrate output in Q3 2025 was 3.241 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 290,000 metal tons (YoY + 9.8%) [12]. - Lead concentrate: The output of overseas sample lead concentrate in Q3 2025 was 309,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6,000 metal tons (YoY - 2%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1,000 metal tons (QoQ - 0.3%). The global lead concentrate output in Q3 2025 was 1.158 million tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 4,000 metal tons (YoY - 0.4%) [12][14]. - Comparison of different statistical calibers: For zinc, the year - on - year increase in global zinc concentrate output in Q3 2025 mainly comes from overseas leading mining enterprises, and the output of small and medium - sized mining enterprises outside the statistical sample continues to increase, while the reduction in China has expanded. For lead, the year - on - year marginal increase in global lead concentrate output in Q3 2025 mainly comes from China, and the output of overseas samples is basically flat year - on - year [22]. 3.3 Q3 2025 Sub - Mining Enterprise Output Changes and Factor Analysis - Zinc concentrate: The top five companies with year - on - year output increments are Ivanhoe, Vedanta, Glencore, Group Mexico, and Boliden. The top five companies with year - on - year output decreases are Peñoles, HudBay, Teck, South 32, and Volcan [25]. - Lead concentrate: The main sources of year - on - year increments are Newmont, Aurelia Metals, Lundin Mining, Hecla, and South 32. The main sources of year - on - year decrements are Vedanta, Glencore, Teck, Gatos silver, and Peñoles [25]. - Reasons for output growth: Project restart or production increase, improvement in ore grade and recovery rate, and low - base effect of some projects [28]. - Reasons for output decline: Ore grade decline, external force majeure factors, and decline in project operation efficiency [35]. - Smelting: The cumulative year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter zinc ingot output of key overseas smelting projects in Q3 2025 has decreased, and there is still no obvious sign of restart of overseas smelters in the third quarter [47]. 3.4 Annual Zinc Concentrate Production Guidance Increases Marginally The total production guidance of 13 leading mining enterprises in 2025 has increased slightly, with the total output in 2025 ranging from 2.822 million to 3.08 million metal tons (accounting for about 32% of overseas mine production). The year - on - year growth rate of the annual zinc concentrate output of sample enterprises has slightly increased from 4% to 4.1%. The zinc concentrate output in the fourth quarter is expected to increase quarter - on - quarter but decline year - on - year [52][53]. 3.5 TC Views and Investment Suggestions - Zinc concentrate TC: Since August, domestic zinc concentrate TC quotes have gradually decreased. Before the end of the year, TC is more likely to decline with limited space and then tend to oscillate. In the medium term, it is difficult to determine the direction of TC before the Benchmark negotiation next year [55]. - Lead concentrate TC: The rebound space of TC is limited, and in the medium term, the TC of lead concentrate may continue to be under pressure [3][56]. - Investment suggestions: For zinc, pay attention to macro - risks in the short term, and hold long - spread and internal - external reverse - spread positions. For lead, hold short positions in the short term, wait and see for spreads, and pay attention to domestic warehouse receipt risks for internal - external long - spread arbitrage [4][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall futures market is under pressure, with a dominant bearish sentiment. Most sectors and varieties show bearish signals, while only a few, such as polysilicon in the non - ferrous sector, rapeseed, and corn starch in the agricultural sector, show bullish signals [1]. - The domestic stock index futures market is under pressure. Except for the CSI 500 futures showing a volatile trend, the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 futures all show strong bearish signals. The treasury bond futures market is also weak, with 2 - year treasury bond futures being volatile and 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures generally bearish [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector is generally bearish. In the non - ferrous sector, polysilicon shows a bullish signal, while copper, lead, nickel, and others show bearish signals, and the rest are volatile [8]. - Lithium carbonate LC2601 is at risk of decline. The weekly K - line shows a weak reversal signal, and the daily line shows a significant pullback on Friday. It is expected to correct next week, with attention paid to the price range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Coking coal, coke, and European container shipping show bearish signals, while the rest of the black series are volatile [20]. - Rebar RB2601 is at risk of decline. The daily line shows that after rising on Monday, it fell for three consecutive days. Currently, it is below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, facing short - term correction pressure, with support in the range of 2,950 - 3,000 yuan/ton [23]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG show bearish signals, and the rest are volatile. In the chemical sector, pure benzene, natural rubber, and others show bearish signals, and the rest are volatile [30]. - PTA2601 is generally volatile. The weekly line shows that the price center is flat, and the daily line shows that it lacks upward momentum. It is expected to be weakly volatile next week, with support in the range of 4,380 - 4,430 yuan/ton [33]. 4. Agricultural Sector - Rapeseed and corn starch show bullish signals, while palm oil, soybean meal, and others show bearish signals, and the rest are volatile [40]. - Sugar SR601 is at risk of short - term rebound. The weekly price hit a new low, but the OBV shows high - level volatility. The daily line shows continuous decline, and there is a certain rebound pressure in the short term, with resistance in the range of 5,500 - 5,530 yuan/ton [45]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - The CSI 500 futures show a volatile trend, while the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 futures show strong bearish signals [51]. - The IC CSI 500 futures are mainly in a corrective phase. The weekly K - line shows a significant decline, and the daily line shows a large decline on Friday. It is expected to rebound slightly at the beginning of next week but will face overall downward pressure, with support near the MA120 moving average [53]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year treasury bond futures are volatile, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures show bearish signals [58]. - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures are weakly volatile. The weekly line shows a "reverse T" shape, with a significant reduction in positions, increasing the downward pressure. The daily line shows that it is above the MA60 moving average, but the short - term downward pressure increases [62].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market rebounded slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 8.54 million lots and an average daily open interest of 10.19 million lots, showing a month - on - month change of +10.09% and - 0.74% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][9] - Most of the underlying futures of commodity options declined this week, with 48 varieties closing lower. The varieties with relatively high weekly gains were lithium carbonate (+4.19%) and iron ore (+1.68%); those with relatively high weekly losses were silver (-5.62%), pulp (-4.60%), and fuel oil (-4.58%) [2][16] - This week, the implied volatility of 29 commodity options increased weekly, and 17 varieties had their current implied volatility above the 50% quantile of the past year. For varieties with implied volatility at a historical high, beware of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; for those at a historical low, buying options has a relatively high cost - performance [2][16] - The PCR of trading volume of pulp, LPG, soybean meal, live pigs, and manganese silicon is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the PCR of trading volume of styrene, industrial silicon, and pure benzene is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase. The PCR of open interest of p - xylene, lithium carbonate, apples, and iron ore is at a historical high, showing a high - level accumulation of bearish sentiment; while that of glass, plastic, palm oil, methanol, aluminum, and urea is at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of bullish sentiment [3][17] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of actively traded varieties this week included silver (1.09 million lots), lithium carbonate (0.81 million lots), and glass (0.59 million lots). Four varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, including synthetic rubber (+138%), p - xylene (+121%), lithium carbonate (+120%), and industrial silicon (109%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were crude oil (-57%), caustic soda (-52%), and PTA (-42%) [1][9] - The varieties with a relatively high average daily open interest this week were glass (0.96 million lots), soybean meal (0.82 million lots), and soda ash (0.81 million lots). The varieties with a relatively rapid month - on - month increase in average daily open interest were industrial silicon (+49%), p - xylene (+42%), and lithium carbonate (+40%) [1][9] 2. This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 2.1 Underlying Futures Price Movements - Most underlying futures of commodity options declined this week, with 48 varieties closing lower. The varieties with relatively high weekly gains were lithium carbonate (+4.19%) and iron ore (+1.68%); those with relatively high weekly losses were silver (-5.62%), pulp (-4.60%), and fuel oil (-4.58%) [2][16] 2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of 29 commodity options increased weekly, and 17 varieties had their current implied volatility above the 50% quantile of the past year. The implied volatility of lithium carbonate increased by 16.18 percentage points this week. Varieties with implied volatility at a historical high included apples, lithium carbonate, gold, silver, ethylene glycol, and methanol; those at a historical low included urea, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, cotton, manganese silicon, pulp, and rubber [2][16] 2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The PCR of trading volume of pulp, LPG, soybean meal, live pigs, and manganese silicon is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the PCR of trading volume of styrene, industrial silicon, and pure benzene is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase. The PCR of open interest of p - xylene, lithium carbonate, apples, and iron ore is at a historical high, showing a high - level accumulation of bearish sentiment; while that of glass, plastic, palm oil, methanol, aluminum, and urea is at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of bullish sentiment [3][17] 3. Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [21] 3.1 Energy - Relevant charts show data such as the total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR of crude oil [23][25] 3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: Charts display data on total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [30][37] - **Caustic Soda**: Similar data is presented through corresponding charts [39][40] - **Glass**: Key data is shown in relevant charts [46][47] - **Soda Ash**: Data is presented via charts [52][53] 3.3 Precious Metals - Charts show data on silver, including total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [58][59] 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Data such as total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are presented in charts [66][69] - **Manganese Silicon**: Similar data is shown through corresponding charts [74][75] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Charts display data on total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [82][88] - **Aluminum**: Key data is presented via relevant charts [91][94] 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Data such as total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are shown in charts [100][103] - **Palm Oil**: Similar data is presented through corresponding charts [106][107] - **Cotton**: Key data is shown in relevant charts [114][115]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market showed a downward trend last week, with different industries contributing to the declines of various indices. The basis of different stock index futures contracts showed different trends, and the hedging demand on stock index futures remained mainly short - sided. For commodity factors, momentum, term structure, and value - based factors performed well, while other factors declined slightly. There are potential risks of factor return retracement in the short - term, but long - term performance is still optimistic. In the bond futures market, the IRR of bond futures declined, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread was volatile and weak [3][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures 3.1.1 Market Review - The market declined last week.有色、电子 contributed to the decline of the Shanghai 50 Index; 电子、电力设备 contributed to the decline of the CSI 300 and CSI 500; 医药生物、电力设备 contributed to the decline of the CSI 1000 [3]. - The trading volume of each variety increased month - on - month. The basis of IH and IF weakened, while that of IC and IM strengthened. IH remained at a premium, IF at a shallow discount, and IC and IM at a deep discount [4]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of inter - period positive arbitrage when the discount converges driven by market sentiment. The roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: Last week, the net value of each strategy varied. The annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factor had returns of 0.5%, 0.1%, and - 0.1% respectively (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor turned to a positive arbitrage signal [5]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: The net value of the inter - variety time - series synthetic strategy gained 0.5% last week. The latest signal recommends a 50% position to go long on IF and short on IC, and a 50% position to go long on IM and short on IC [6]. - **Timing Strategy**: The daily timing strategies generally made profits last week. The Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had returns of - 1.2%, 1.0%, 2.5%, and 0.2% respectively. The timing model's latest signal showed a significant increase in bullish sentiment and was bullish on all indices [7]. 3.2 Bond Futures 3.2.1 Basis and Inter - period Spread - The IRR of bond futures declined this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread was volatile and weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity caused by a slight widening of the inter - period spread [41]. 3.2.2 Unilateral Strategy - The bond futures market was volatile last week. The daily - frequency timing strategy signals were mainly bullish, with the main bullish factors including basis, intraday volume - price, and high - frequency capital flow, and the main bearish factors including inter - day technology and member positions [42]. 3.2.3 Interest Rate Timing Signal - The interest rate timing signal predicts an upward movement of interest rates, with a relatively high proportion of long positions in the production factor and inventory factor [43]. 3.3 Commodity CTA 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Affected by external macro factors and domestic investment sentiment, the commodity market showed a weak and volatile trend last week. The top decliners were coking coal, glass, and soda ash, and gold and silver also declined by more than 2%. Lithium carbonate rose significantly. Momentum, term structure, and value - based factors performed well, while other factors declined slightly. There may be risks of factor return retracement in the short - term, but long - term performance is still optimistic [55]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies had different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, and Calmar ratio. For example, the CW FT strategy had an annualized return of 9.4%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.61, and a Calmar ratio of 1.07, with a return of 0.20% last week and 4.42% year - to - date [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock indices is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent adjustment of the A-share market is due to three reasons: the fading of market speculative sentiment, the repeated expectations of US liquidity easing, and the debate on whether there is a bubble in the US AI field. However, the adjustment range is limited, and the mid - term slow - bull pattern of the market is still optimistic. This is because the national team's demand to protect the stable operation of the capital market exists, and the US liquidity easing has not subsided [2][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview 3.1.1 Next Week's View - The policy's attitude of maintaining stability remains unchanged. Although the A - share market has corrected, it is difficult to have a downward trend. The adjustment range is limited, and the mid - term slow - bull pattern of the market is still promising [11] 3.1.2 This Week's Key Event Concerns - On November 17, the national general public budget revenue from January to October increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange in October had a surplus of 177 million US dollars [12][13] - On November 18, Beijing supported the issuance of consumer infrastructure Reits, and the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 - year - old labor force excluding students in October was 17.3% [14][16] - On November 19, the Ministry of Finance advanced the budget of some central financial subsidies for urban affordable housing projects in 2026 [17] - On November 20, the LPR in November remained unchanged. Vice - Premier He Lifeng supported the development of new business forms such as cross - border e - commerce, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development promoted the "Four Good" construction [18][19][20] - On November 21, the total social electricity consumption in October increased by 10.4% year - on - year [21] 3.2 One - Week Market Quote Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From November 17 to November 21, the global stock market denominated in US dollars fell sharply. The MSCI global index dropped 2.48%. India's stock market outperformed the global average, while China's stock market had the worst performance [22] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From November 17 to November 21, Chinese equity assets fell sharply. Among them, A - shares had an average daily trading volume of 1.8652 trillion yuan, a decrease of 178.8 billion yuan compared with last week. All A - share broad - based indices closed down [25] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - This week, most global GICS primary industries closed down. The leading industry was telecommunications services (+1.21%), and the underperforming industry was information technology (-4.80%). In the Chinese market, telecommunications services had a relatively small decline, while materials lagged behind [28] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - This week, 0 out of 30 A - share CITIC primary industries rose (20 last week), and 30 fell (10 last week). The industry with the smallest decline was media (-1.39%), and the largest was new energy (-9.41%) [29] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles: Large - Cap Value Dominates - This week, value outperformed growth, and the market - capitalization style was biased towards large - cap stocks [34] 3.2.6 Futures Basis Overview - Relevant charts show the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [34][36] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview 3.3.1 Broad - Based Index Valuation - The report provides the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of various broad - based indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 100, etc. [42] 3.3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - The report shows the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of various primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. [43] 3.3.3 Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [44][49] 3.3.4 Broad - Based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.69%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 9.45%. For the CSI 500, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted down to 27.87%, and the 2026 rate was adjusted down to 20.63%. For the CSI 1000, the 2025 rate was adjusted up to 29.17%, and the 2026 rate was adjusted down to 24.87% [50] 3.4 Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year yield increased, the 1 - year yield decreased, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 99.3, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.10 [58] 3.4.2 Trading - Type Capital Tracking - This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 16.1 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance decreased by 300 million yuan [61] 3.4.3 Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 increased by 800 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 1.44 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 1.4 billion shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 increased by 3 billion shares [66][70] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data 3.5.1 Supply Side: Tire Operating Rate Declined - The report shows data on the national blast furnace operating rate, coking enterprise operating rate, domestic crude steel daily output, and tire operating rate [72][74] 3.5.2 Consumption Side: Real - Estate Transactions Remained Sluggish - Real - estate transaction data such as the transaction area of first - hand houses in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the transaction area of second - hand houses in 16 key cities, etc. are presented. The passenger car wholesale sales growth rate rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $62.5 per barrel [80][88] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation: Producer Goods Prices Stabilized, and Agricultural Product Prices Rebounded - Producer goods prices gradually stabilized, and agricultural product prices continued to recover [90][91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The release of the September non - farm payroll data in the US after the government ended the shutdown showed that the job market continued to cool but without significant deterioration. The data did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the stock market was significantly suppressed. The Fed's stance on a December rate cut is uncertain, and the market's expectation of liquidity tightening has changed, with the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [2][33] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined, most stocks fell, bond yields mostly decreased, and the US bond yield dropped to 4.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, non - US currencies depreciated, gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 23.4, and the spot commodity index declined, with Brent crude oil dropping 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel [1][5][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly declined, with significant drops in US and A - shares. The September non - farm payroll report did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the Fed's internal differences intensified. The stock market was suppressed, and it is expected that the stock market will continue to oscillate weakly [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping to 4.06%. The decline was driven by the inflow of funds from the falling stock market. However, the Fed's hawkish stance limited the downward space of long - term bond yields. The domestic bond market in China oscillated weakly [14][17][20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, and all non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB gained 0.08%, the euro fell 0.94%, the pound fell 0.55%, the yen fell 1.2%, and others also declined [23][24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, and it is in an oscillating pattern with a risk of decline. Brent crude oil fell 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel, and the commodity spot index declined due to the weak supply - demand pattern of oil and the strong US dollar [27][29][32] 3.3 Hotspot Tracking - The September US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the number of new jobs being 119,000, higher than the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the wage growth rate remained high at 3.8% year - on - year [2][31][33] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index - Tuesday: US September retail sales, PPI, housing price index; US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - Wednesday: US weekly initial jobless claims, September durable goods orders and new home sales; US November Chicago PMI - Thursday: Eurozone November economic sentiment index; Fed releases the Beige Book; ECB October interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: France and Germany October CPI [35]