热点报告——股指期货 [★Ta2b0l2e5_S年um4m月a经ry]济数据解读： 1、作为关税战升级以来的首个月份，中国各项经济指标均同比 走弱，除工增外均不及市场预期，反映出经历一季度的快速修 复后，国内经济压力开始显现。4 月份工增、社零、固投季调环 比增速分别为 0.22%、0.24%、0.1%，均处于历史季节性低位。 扣减掉价格因素后，前 4 月累计看，供给侧表现仍好于需求侧。 股 2、供给侧方面，无论是工业还是服务业虽然同比增速回落，但 结构上均呈现出新质生产力增长较为稳固的态势。高技术制造 业、信息技术服务业等增速分别录得 10%、10.4%。 指 期 货 3、消费增长不及预期。一方面餐饮消费或存在低价内卷现象， 另一方面商品零售则表现为美妆、金银珠宝高增长，而传统补 贴领域的汽车和通信类产品增速开始收敛。 4、投资端，制造业和基建仍有韧性。但地产端，投资、销售、 价格三弱的态势表明"止跌"态势不稳，有较大下行压力。 ★投资建议 增长动能放缓--2025 年 4 月经济数据解读 4 月份经济数据整体表现平淡，出口的高增和内需的低迷形成鲜 明对照。国内政策发力的"疲惫期"或逐渐开始显现，突出表 现 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The financial market is affected by multiple factors such as US fiscal deficits, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The stock and bond markets in the US show signs of instability, and gold has attracted inflow of bottom - fishing funds. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, the prices of some agricultural products are affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, while the prices of some metals and energy chemicals are influenced by factors like production, inventory, and trade policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The EU is expected to share a revised trade proposal with the US, aiming to boost negotiations. The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with poor auction results. - Gold prices are oscillating and showing strength. Tensions in the Middle East, poor 20 - year Treasury bond auction data, and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating have led to inflows of bottom - fishing funds. Gold is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [9][10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - A measure of the dollar's performance has fallen to a one - month low. Traders are waiting for the G - 7 meeting to see if the Trump administration seeks a weaker dollar. - Trump claims that the tax - cut bill is close to passing, but there is still opposition. Rising US Treasury yields and concerns about deficits have led to a weakening of the dollar index. The dollar is expected to be weak in the short term [11][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's attempt to ban Chinese advanced computing chips globally, stating that it is a unilateral and protectionist act. Shanghai plans to implement a consumer goods trade - in program, and eight departments jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing. - The market is differentiated, with more structural and thematic opportunities. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [15][17]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The 20 - year Treasury bond auction was dismal, and the House Speaker Johnson announced an agreement on the state and local tax deduction cap. - Concerns about the sustainability of US government debt are hard to dispel in the short term. Long - term interest rates will suppress US stocks, which are expected to be weak and oscillating [19][21]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 157 billion yuan, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan. - Treasury bond futures are oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of laying out medium - term long positions on dips [22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - On May 21, the actual成交 volume of imported soybeans at the auction was 85,606 tons, with a成交 rate of 32.1%. The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 19 - 700,000 tons in US soybean exports. - Argentine precipitation affects soybean harvests, and US soybean planting progress is slow, causing CBOT soybeans to rise. However, the increase is expected to be limited. Domestic soybean meal prices have been slightly adjusted upwards. Soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean growing areas' weather and the 25/26 balance sheet adjustment [23][26]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - In April 2025, China's air - conditioner production increased year - on - year, while refrigerator and TV production decreased. From May 1 - 18, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. - Steel prices are oscillating, and the market sentiment is cautious. With weak domestic real - estate and infrastructure demand, uncertain manufacturing demand, and potential external demand risks, steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the near future. It is recommended to hold light positions in the short term [27][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar domestic sales quota in May 2025 is 2.35 million tons, the same as last month. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of May decreased year - on - year. China's syrup and premix imports in April decreased year - on - year. - International sugar trade supply - demand is expected to loosen, and the global sugar supply - demand may turn to surplus in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the weather in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar - pressing data [30][34]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weakly stable. Coal mines have stable production, but downstream procurement is negative. The coking coal futures are oscillating downward, and the supply is excessive. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. - Coking coal is expected to be bearish in the short and medium term, and coke is expected to oscillate weakly [35][36]. 2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The overall progress of the Guangxi Beihai green ecological aluminum project has exceeded 90%, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in the third quarter of this year. - The alumina spot price has increased, and the Guinea ore disturbance has led to increased short - term fluctuations in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [37]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $24.07 per ton. In April, lead concentrate imports increased year - on - year. Recycled lead smelters have cut waste battery purchase prices due to losses. - The lead industry has high finished - product inventories and weak terminal demand. There is a risk of a squeeze in the overseas market. Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on potential internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [39][42]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - From January to April, the cumulative export volume of galvanized sheets increased year - on - year. On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $29.83 per ton. - Zinc prices are oscillating widely. The near - strong and far - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory inflection point may be gradually confirmed. It is recommended to short at high levels on a medium - term basis for unilateral trading and focus on positive arbitrage opportunities [43][45]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US plans to impose high tariffs on Southeast Asian solar equipment. There has been an increase in warehouse receipts, and leading enterprises are maintaining price - holding strategies, while second - and third - tier enterprises have cut prices. - The polysilicon market is affected by news, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended to focus on positive arbitrage opportunities after price corrections [46][48]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon new material and additive project with an annual output of 40,000 tons is in the environmental impact assessment public - notice stage. - Industrial silicon prices have been falling. Some small factories plan to cut production, while some silicon factories in Sichuan may resume production. With weak demand, the market is not optimistic. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and short positions can be held [49][50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The LME has approved the addition of three warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. China's copper production in April increased slightly month - on - month. Antofagasta has started mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. - The US dollar index may be under pressure, which supports copper prices, but the short - term weakening of the fundamentals may suppress copper prices. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. It is recommended to conduct band trading [51][54]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Argentina has approved a $2.5 billion lithium mine project by Rio Tinto. Argentina's lithium carbonate exports in April were 8,066.71 tons. - The long - term logic of oversupply and falling cost support in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. The market is expected to be unstable before the improvement of spot and downstream orders. It is recommended to control short - position sizes and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [55][57]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On May 21, LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons compared to the previous day. - LME and SHFE nickel inventories are slightly decreasing. Nickel prices are oscillating. The NPI - to - high - ice - nickel profit has opened, and the supply of pure nickel may increase marginally. It is recommended to focus on short - term band trading and medium - term long - position opportunities on dips [58][59]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - On May 21, the spot price of civil LPG in Shandong was stable. The US C3 inventory has been accumulating, and the Far - East import willingness has been partially suppressed. - The LPG market is weak, and the futures are expected to oscillate weakly [60][64]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending May 16. - Oil prices are falling. With rising inventory, stable production, and low downstream inventory, there is a high risk of a further decline in oil prices in the absence of effective upward drivers [65][66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the spot basis has stabilized. - PTA futures are oscillating. With supply - side disturbances and strong demand, the PTA valuation has been repaired, but it has corrected recently due to demand - side rumors. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased compared to last week. The urea price in Shandong has declined slightly. - Urea is oscillating. The export - related expectations have been gradually realized, and the 9/1 spread is expected to remain high [70][71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable. - With falling raw material costs, high industry production, and limited processing - fee decline space, the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level following cost changes [72][74]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash market in South China is stable. The soda - ash futures have strengthened slightly, while the spot market is oscillating steadily. - Short - term soda - ash plant maintenance may support the market, but it is recommended to go short at high levels in the medium term [75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On May 21, the price of float glass in the Shahe market was mostly stable. - The glass futures have risen slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed much. With weak demand and no positive policies, glass prices are expected to remain low. Attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [76][77]. 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Due to a national strike, Belgian ports are facing disruptions. The rumors of Maersk's lower - than - expected cabin opening in June have impacted the European - route futures. - It is recommended to treat the market with a weakly oscillating mindset, as the price from Shanghai to Rotterdam has not been released, and it is less likely to exceed $2,500 per FEU [78].

日度报告——综合晨报 LPR 迎来年内首降，以色列准备袭击伊核设施 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-21 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 以色列准备袭击伊核设施 美国情报部门发现以色列准备袭击伊朗核设施，市场避险情绪 明显上升，美元指数震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） LPR 迎来年内首降 综 股市再次演绎风险偏好走高的过程，权重股大幅上行，市场情 绪乐观。短期无更多催化下，散户入场可能是本轮资金持续走 高的原因。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 中国 4 月棕榈液油进口 15.68 万吨，环比减少 6.35% 马棕出口小幅增加，中国 4 月棕榈油进口环比下降。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 国家发改委：将稳步有序推进城市更新重点工程实施 钢价延续弱势震荡，市场情绪依然偏谨慎。4 月经济数据进一步 验证国内地产和基建需求没有明显改善，外需在抢出口后同样 存在风险，钢价预计近期仍处于震荡格局。 有色金属（铜） 中国 4 月精炼铜进口量环比下降 15.27% 宏观因素阶段影响偏中性，但市场对基本面阶段转弱担忧正在 升温，预计铜价短期震荡偏弱可能性更大。 晨 伊朗最高领袖表态强势 报 金价强势上涨，主要是受 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The average duration of ships in major domestic ports remains at a high level. Whether the surge in Sino - US goods will cause the port congestion to continue to deteriorate needs further observation. The Port of Klang is operating under continuous overload, and the port congestion has worsened again, with the average duration of ships in the port rebounding to about 2.5 days. - Some ports in Northwest Europe still have congestion problems due to issues such as intermittent strikes, cargo backlogs, and labor shortages. A strike will be held again in Belgian ports this week, and the congestion disturbance may be difficult to eliminate in the short term. - North American ports are operating well, and attention should be paid to whether the subsequent dense arrival of goods will cause port congestion [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Review - **Asia Ports**: - In Yangshan Port, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships is 14.3 hours/25.5 hours, and the latest number of container ships at anchor/berthing is 19/26. In Ningbo Port, the corresponding figures are 15.5 hours/26.9 hours and 38/33. In Qingdao, it's 14.6 hours/42.6 hours. In Singapore Port, it's 3.5 hours/28.4 hours with 4/47 ships at anchor/berthing. In the Port of Klang, it's 34.8 hours/28.1 hours with 16/22 ships at anchor/berthing [2]. - The latest average duration in port of Yangshan, Ningbo, Singapore, and the Port of Klang is 39.6 hours, 40.8 hours, 31.6 hours, and 63.0 hours respectively. The month - on - month changes are - 4.3 hours, - 7.2 hours, 0.2 hours, and 20.2 hours, and the year - on - year changes are 11.0 hours, - 3.5 hours, - 7.5 hours, and 29.1 hours [6]. - **European Ports**: - In Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 13.8 hours/43.0 hours, 31.0 hours/40.7 hours, 27.7 hours/46.9 hours, and 11.1 hours/43.6 hours respectively. The latest number of container ships at anchor/berthing in Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg are 4/26, 5/18, and 4/17 respectively. In Valencia, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time is 9.2 hours/36.2 hours, and the number of ships at anchor/berthing is 2/10 [2]. - The latest average duration in port of Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Valencia is 53.1 hours, 66.3 hours, and 43.7 hours respectively. The month - on - month changes are - 5.9 hours, - 6.7 hours, and - 0.4 hours, and the year - on - year changes are 1.0 hours, 14.0 hours, and 1.7 hours [6]. - **North American Ports**: - In Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Tacoma, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/82.1 hours, 3.8 hours/92.9 hours, and 0 hours/78.7 hours respectively. The number of container ships at anchor in Long Beach and Los Angeles is 0, and the number of berthing ships is 13. In New York, Savannah, and Norfolk, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time are 7.9 hours/48.1 hours, 24.1 hours/36.4 hours, and 20.7 hours/25.5 hours respectively. In New York, the number of ships at anchor/berthing is 0/12. In Houston Port, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time is 3.7 hours/45.5 hours [2]. - The latest average duration in port of Long Beach, Los Angeles, and New York is 107.3 hours, 106.1 hours, and 54.0 hours respectively. The month - on - month changes are 1.5 hours, - 3.6 hours, and 5.4 hours, and the year - on - year changes are - 1.9 hours, - 0.8 hours, and 6.6 hours [6]. 3.2 Asia Port Dynamic Tracking - The scale of container ships in port in China and Southeast Asia is presented through data on the number of container ships at anchor and berthing in different ports over time, including Shanghai, Singapore, and the Port of Klang [9][11]. - The average waiting time, berthing time, and in - port time of ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese container ports are tracked over time [17]. 3.3 European Port Dynamic Tracking - The scale of container ships in port in Europe, including Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean/Black Sea regions, is presented through data on the number of container ships at anchor and berthing in different ports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg [20]. - The average waiting time, berthing time, and in - port time of ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean container ports are tracked over time [26][30]. 3.4 North American Port Dynamic Tracking - The number of container ships at anchor and berthing in North American ports, and the average waiting time, berthing time, and in - port time of ocean - going container ships in US container ports are presented [35][36]. - The scale of container ships in port in North America, including the East and West coasts, is presented [38]. 3.5 Large - Ship Arrival Situation and Key Hub Monitoring - The arrival situation of large - scale container ships in Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port is monitored over time [43]. - The arrival situation of 12,000 + TEU container ships of different alliances (Gemini, OA, PA + MSC) in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean is monitored [46][49]. - The passage situation of container ships through key shipping routes such as the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal is monitored [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic fundamentals will gradually face pressure, and the fundamental situation is favorable for the bond market. It is advisable to maintain the strategy of buying on dips. In the medium to long term, the probability of making profits by going long on long - term bonds is high, but the potential return is relatively limited. Therefore, the strategy of buying on dips is more cost - effective [3][35] - The economic data in Q2 may decline moderately, and the pressure on economic decline will become more apparent in Q3. It is expected that China will introduce incremental policies to address this situation at that time [2][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Increase in Internal and External Pressures, Most Economic Data Falling Short of Expectations - **Q1 Economic Data Strength Logic**: The strong performance of Q1 economic data was mainly due to two reasons: the beginning of the year is the peak demand season for sectors such as real estate, and policy efforts further stimulated market demand; enterprises had a strong motivation to rush exports, and the export industry chain showed resilience. However, both logics had issues of poor sustainability [1][9][10] - **April Economic Data Weakening**: In April, most economic data weakened compared to the previous period. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in April was 6.5%, with an expected value of 6.1% and a previous value of 7.7%; the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in April was 5.1%, with an expected value of 5.5% and a previous value of 5.9%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to April was 4%, with an expected value of 4.2% and a previous value of 4.2%. After the data was released, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose [9] - **Future Economic Trend**: The economic data in Q2 may decline moderately, and the pressure on economic decline will become more obvious starting from mid - year. Fiscal policy is the key to hedging against the weakening external demand. It is expected that China will introduce incremental policies in Q3, and policies will become the focus of market speculation at that time [2][11] 2. Production End: Both Industrial and Service Production Show Weakening Resilience - **Industrial Production**: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.5%, with an expected value of 6.1% and a previous value of 7.7%. The growth rate of industrial production is weakening. The decline in the growth rate of export delivery value and the weakening of terminal demand such as external demand have dragged down production performance. Policy support has prevented a significant decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value. Looking forward, the weakening of external demand will have a more obvious impact on industries with high export dependence, but policies such as "two new" will support the production end, and the decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value is expected to be limited [12][13] - **Service Production**: In April, the service production growth rate was 6.0%, with a previous value of 6.3%. Weak service consumption and unstable economic recovery expectations have negatively affected service production. In the future, the production growth rate is expected to decline slightly. Although terminal demand is weak, policies to boost service consumption are expected to prevent a significant decline in the service production growth rate [13] 3. Demand End: Both Manufacturing and Infrastructure Growth Rates Decline Slightly, and Real Estate Data Deteriorates Marginally Again - **Manufacturing Investment**: From January to April, the cumulative manufacturing investment growth rate was 8.8%, with a previous value of 9.1%; in April, the monthly manufacturing investment growth rate was 8.2%, with a previous value of 9.2%. The decline in manufacturing investment growth rate is due to weak terminal demand and low corporate investment and financing willingness. However, policies such as equipment renewal have limited the decline. In the future, manufacturing will continue to grow at a high speed, but there will be obvious structural differentiation [18][19] - **Infrastructure Investment**: From January to April, the cumulative growth rate of broad - based infrastructure was 10.85%, with a previous value of 11.5%; the narrow - based infrastructure growth rate was 5.8%, with a previous value of 5.8%. In April, the monthly broad - based infrastructure growth rate was 9.57%, with a previous value of 12.58%. Infrastructure growth is gradually declining from a high level. The slow issuance of new special bonds and the decline in investment growth rates of some central - led infrastructure industries have led to the weakening of infrastructure growth in April. In the short term, infrastructure growth may face a slight downward pressure, but it is expected to rise again with subsequent policy support [22][23] - **Real Estate Market**: Most real estate indicators showed a decline again. Weak consumer willingness to buy houses and tight corporate funding sources have led to a decline in real estate investment. In the short term, the probability of directly introducing strong policies to stimulate real estate demand is low. The core idea of stabilizing the real estate market is to increase effective supply to stimulate effective demand. In the short term, real estate data may continue to weaken, and the impact of incremental fiscal policies on the real estate market in Q3 can be observed [26][27] - **Social Retail Sales**: In April, the social retail sales growth rate was 5.1%, with an expected value of 5.5% and a previous value of 5.9%. The decline in automobile and other large - scale consumer goods sales has dragged down the social retail sales growth rate. Different types of consumer goods show differentiated performance. In the future, social retail sales still face pressure due to high macro - environmental uncertainty and low probability of direct policies to improve residents' cash flow statements [30][31] 4. Fundamental Factors Favor the Bond Market, Maintain the Strategy of Buying on Dips - **Bond Market Outlook**: Due to the poor sustainability of the previous logics driving economic data improvement, future economic fundamental pressure will gradually emerge, which is favorable for the bond market. In the medium to long term, the probability of making profits by going long on long - term bonds is high, but the potential return is relatively limited. Therefore, the strategy of buying on dips is more cost - effective [3][35] - **Monetary Policy and Yield Curve**: The future fundamental pressure will gradually emerge, and the pressure of exchange - rate depreciation is relatively controllable. The probability of overall loose monetary policy is high. It is expected that the central level of capital interest rates will decline slightly, and the capital market will be in a state of balanced and slightly loose. The current yield curve is relatively flat and is expected to gradually steepen in the future [35][36] - **Investment Strategies**: In the medium term, there is still a bullish outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of deploying medium - term long positions on dips. The opportunities for futures positive arbitrage have significantly decreased, and only some contracts still have slight positive arbitrage opportunities. Opportunities to steepen the curve have initially emerged, and subsequent changes in capital interest rates need to be closely monitored [38]

日度报告——综合晨报 4 月经济数据同比回落 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储官员频频为降息泼冷水 特朗普和普京的谈话结束，特朗普表态俄乌立刻谈判，但是分 歧存在的情况下，预计难以实现。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中国 4 月经济数据同比回落 综 4 月份经济数据同比增速回落，反映出外部冲击和内需走弱的双 重压力。下一阶段政策应竭力呵护房地产市场，持续巩固"止 跌回稳"态势，缓解居民资产收缩压力，释放消费潜力。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 美豆种植率高于预期 报 巴西 CNF 升贴水继续下降，国内进口大豆成本随之下行。随着 进口大豆到港及油厂开机增加，上周豆粕库存继续小幅上升， 昨日沿海豆粕现货报价以下跌为主。 有色金属（铜） 中国 4 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量同比增加 0.2% 短期美元指数承压运行而支撑铜价，但国内基本面阶段转弱预 期升温而抑制铜价，总体上，铜价短期震荡偏弱运行可能性更 大。 能源化工（原油） 欧盟或向 G7 提议将俄罗斯石油价格上限降至 50 美元/桶 油价窄幅波动。 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | -- ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 行业库存重回高位，光伏玻璃价格承压运行 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 5 月 19 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/5/16 当周）： 截至 5 月 16 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 13.5 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 21.5 元/平米，亦环比上周持平。 上周有一条光伏玻璃产线引头子出玻璃，实际产出上行。预计本 周仍有多条产线引头子出玻璃，行业实际供给仍在增加。目前暂 无新产线点火投产，基于未来需求端的降温趋势，预计行业短期 无新产线计划投产。 能 源 化 上周终端需求缩减较为明显，组件厂家排产持续下调，进而减少 对光伏玻璃的采购订单。预计本周这一情况将延续，组件厂排产 或继续下行，光伏玻璃需求维持弱势运行。 工 由于上周光伏玻璃需求端呈缩量态势而供给端继续上行，多数光 伏玻璃厂家库存继续上涨，目前行业库存已经重回高位。 ★ 供需分析： 随着行业供需差进一步扩大，光伏玻璃价格弱势运行。 ★ 风险提示： 组件厂家上调开工率。 | | | | 曹璐 | 资深分析师(化工) | | --- | --- | ...

日度报告——综合晨报 穆迪下调美国信用评级，5 月美通胀预期继续 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-19 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 穆迪下调后 美国失去最后一个最高信用评级 穆迪下调了美国评级，这意味着美国失去了最高信用评级，对 于美国财政赤字的担忧上升，美元短期走弱。 宏观策略（黄金） 5 月美国通胀预期继续回升 综 周五金价震荡收涨，在 3200 美金附近运行，俄乌谈判扰动市场， 穆迪下调美国主权评级，对金价构成提振，但黄金尚未摆脱回 调趋势。美国政府债务问题市场多黄金核心逻辑。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 阿根廷大豆收获完成 66% 报 上周国内进口大豆成本变动不大。全国油厂共压榨大豆 190.55 万吨，钢联预估本周压榨升至 220 万吨以上，豆粕将进入季节性 累库周期，现货及基差压力不减。 有色金属（锌） 近期俄罗斯龙兴矿锌矿招标下半年 2-3 万吨锌矿 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0021468 | | Tel： | 862 ...

有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。五一假期间检查组再次入驻山 西地区，节后相关部门加强对矿山检查。受安全环保、资源整合 及品位下降等影响，国内矿整体供应仍呈现紧缺的状态，复产矿 山以及存量矿山的产出稳定性有待观察。进口方面，市场成交处 于僵持阶段，矿石销售出现阶段性困难，几矿（45/3）暂时报价 70 美元/干吨。几内亚政府陆续撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题进 一步升级，Axis 矿区在前几日已经被列入政府撤销采矿许可证名 单。该矿区包含顺达矿业等矿业公司，涉及产能约 4000 万吨/ 年，规模较大令市场对远期矿石供应担忧加剧。到货方面，期内 新到矿石 409.9 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 324.2 万吨，澳大利 亚资源 80.5 万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape 船运费小幅下降于 19 美元/吨。 周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿石扰动加剧， 氧化铝期价反弹 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 氧化铝：震荡 报 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core View of the Report - The substantial progress in Sino-US trade negotiations has reduced short-term tariff risks and improved stock market sentiment, but inflation is expected to rise and consumer spending power will continue to be under pressure. Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and the Fed's stance on higher inflation and interest rates also impact the market [2][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded, most stock markets rose, and most bond yields increased. The US Treasury yield rose to 4.48%. The US dollar index rose 0.75% to 101, most non-US currencies depreciated, the offshore RMB rose 0.41%, gold prices fell 3.6% to $3,204 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 17.2, and the spot commodity index rose. Brent crude oil rebounded 3.6% to $65 per barrel [1][5][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 surging 5.27%, the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.76%, the Hang Seng Index rising 2.09%, and the Nikkei 225 Index rising 0.67%. The progress in Sino-US trade negotiations reduced short-term tariff risks and improved stock market sentiment, but inflation expectations and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating had a negative impact on the stock market [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rebounded, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.48%. The Fed's stance on higher inflation and interest rates and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating suggest further upside potential for US Treasury yields. The Chinese bond market is expected to trade sideways in the short term [16][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.75% to 101, and most non-US currencies depreciated [29] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold fell 3.6% to $3,204 per ounce. Short-term gold prices are weak, but the medium- to long-term bull market remains intact. Brent crude oil rebounded 2.6% to $65 per barrel, and commodities as a whole closed higher [34] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The Sino-US trade negotiations achieved progress beyond expectations. The two sides reached an agreement that exceeded market expectations, and the tariff levels returned to before the reciprocal tariffs. The 24% reciprocal tariff imposed by the US on China was suspended for 90 days. The short-term confrontation in the trade war has eased, and market risk appetite has increased [37] 4. Next Week's Important Events - Monday: China's April retail sales and industrial added value data - Tuesday: China's May LPR, RBA interest rate decision - Wednesday: UK's April CPI - Thursday: Preliminary May manufacturing PMI data for France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US; ECB interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: Japan's April CPI, US April new home sales [39]