Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the global financial market, including the trends of various commodities, macro - economic news, and the performance of different financial sectors. It also provides forecasts and analyses of multiple industries and markets, such as the oil market, metal market, and stock market. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Oil prices declined due to OPEC's production increase and weak demand. The US crude oil main contract fell 1.69% to $65.17 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract dropped 1.59% to $67.67 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures climbed 0.25% to $3435.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased 1.36% to $37.84 per ounce [3]. - Most London base metals advanced. LME lead futures rose 0.84% to $1975.50 per ton, and LME aluminum futures gained 0.47% to $2565.00 per ton, while LME copper futures fell 0.54% to $9634.50 per ton [4]. - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results. Coking coal rose over 3%, coke increased over 1%, and rapeseed meal rose nearly 1%, while iron ore dropped over 0.5% [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - In July, China's service - sector PMI continued to expand. New business, new export business, and on - hand business were recorded at 53.3 (up 2.3 month - on - month), 51.2 (up 2.9 month - on - month), and 50.1 (down 1.6 month - on - month) respectively. The new business indicator's increase reached a new high this year [7]. - In the first half of 2025, the whole market added 410,000 new futures customers, a 2.5% increase year - on - year. By the end of June 2025, the total number of effective customers reached 2.61 million, a 12% year - on - year increase [9]. - EU officials stated that EU goods face a 15% tariff when entering the US, applicable to all goods except steel and aluminum [9]. - Seven Chinese departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new - type industrialization, aiming to provide high - quality financial services [9]. - In July, the trading volume of China's futures market was 1,058,719,289 lots, and the trading value was 71.31 trillion yuan, up 48.89% and 36.03% year - on - year respectively [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Capital Economics predicted that OPEC+ would take a break before lifting the new round of voluntary production cuts to avoid an oil market surplus and expected production to increase again from the second quarter of 2026 [13]. - The price of single - layer coated photovoltaic glass rose to 11 yuan per square meter, up 1 yuan month - on - month [14]. Metal Futures - Guinea's transitional president revoked the bauxite mining concession originally granted to a global aluminum company [16]. - In July 2025, China's primary aluminum output was 3.7776 million tons, up 2.36% year - on - year and 3.31% month - on - month [17]. - According to Western Mining's semi - annual report, its mined zinc output was 62,875 million tons, up 18.61% year - on - year, and mined lead output was 35,071 million tons, up 24.63% year - on - year [17]. Black - Series Futures - A coal mine in Linfen suspended production on August 1, with the resumption time undetermined [20]. - In July, the total steel export volume of 32 domestic ports was 11.3646 million tons, down 1.5% month - on - month [20]. - After the rain in Ordos ended on August 5, some coal mines resumed production, leading to tightened supply and increased demand, and coal prices were frequently adjusted upwards [20]. - From July 28 to August 3, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.84 million tons, down 709,000 tons month - on - month [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - Last week, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate remained high, soybean commercial inventory increased, and soybean meal inventory decreased slightly [23]. - Brazil's 2024/25 corn production forecast was raised to a record 134 million tons [23]. - On August 5, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced a public consultation on amending the business rules for fresh apple futures [24]. - In July 2025, Muyuan sold 6.355 million commercial pigs, with sales revenue of 11.639 billion yuan [24]. Financial Market Finance - Regulatory authorities are cracking down on capital market fraud by punishing third - party companies that provide substantial fraud services for listed companies [28]. - On Tuesday, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.96% to 3617.6 points, and the market turnover reaching 1.62 trillion yuan [28]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.68% to 24,902.53 points, and the south - bound capital had a net purchase of HK$23.426 billion [28]. - As of August 5, 23 stocks had QFIIs in their top ten tradable shareholders' lists at the end of the second quarter, with a total market value of 3.737 billion yuan [29]. - In July, the number of newly - registered private equity securities funds reached 1298, a 18% increase month - on - month [29]. Industry - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held on August 8, with over 100 new products to be launched [33]. - The 11th batch of national drug procurement is highly competitive, with 480 companies submitting application materials for 55 drugs [33]. - The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products issued an initiative to maintain the high - quality development of the photovoltaic industry's foreign trade [33]. - The Passenger Car Association raised the full - year sales forecast for 2025 to 24.35 million vehicles, a 6% increase year - on - year [34]. Overseas - The Trump administration plans to terminate the system initiated by Elon Musk that requires federal employees to report their weekly work results [38]. - The US trade deficit in goods and services in June decreased by 16% month - on - month to $60.2 billion [38]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped from 50.8 to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 [38]. - The Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates if the economy and inflation develop as expected [38]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed lower, with the Dow down 0.14%, the S&P 500 down 0.49%, and the Nasdaq down 0.65% [42]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.37%, the French CAC40 down 0.14%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.16% [42]. - The assets of index ETFs linked to the MSCI global stock index have exceeded $2 trillion, with a growth rate of 17% since the beginning of 2025 [42]. Commodities - In July, the trading volume of China's futures market was 1.059 billion lots, and the trading value was 71.31 trillion yuan, up 48.89% and 36.03% year - on - year respectively [47]. - Oil prices declined due to OPEC's production increase and weak demand [47]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.25% and COMEX silver futures up 1.36% [47]. Bonds - Domestic bank - bond yields were mostly stable, and treasury bond futures were mostly up, while credit bonds fluctuated narrowly [50]. - US bond yields mostly rose, with the 2 - year yield up 4.9 basis points to 3.720% [50]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1876 on Tuesday, down 110 basis points from the previous trading day [51]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HK$6.429 billion and sold US dollars in the New York session on August 5 [52]. - The US dollar index rose 0.01% to 98.76, and most non - US currencies rose [52]. Upcoming Events - At 09:20, 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases of the People's Bank of China will expire [55]. - At 12:30, the Reserve Bank of India will announce its interest rate decision [55]. - At 18:30, the Central Bank of Russia will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [55]. - At 20:00, DJI will officially launch its first sweeping robot [55].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The crude oil market is expected to experience volatile price movements. The market is influenced by factors such as the seasonal peak travel season, changes in US crude oil inventories, OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the US economy [1]. Group 3: Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is range-bound trading. The seasonal peak travel season has led to low US crude oil inventories. However, the latest EIA report shows a larger-than-expected decline in gasoline inventories and a significant unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, resulting in an overall increase in refined oil inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, which may impact the supply - demand balance. Concerns about reduced supply from Russia and Iran due to geopolitical factors and worries about the US economy also affect the market [1]. Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main futures contract (2509) of crude oil dropped by 1.55% to 508.8 yuan per ton, with a lowest price of 502.2 yuan per ton and a highest price of 513.2 yuan per ton. The open interest increased by 24 to 28,256 lots [2]. Group 5: Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the expected increase in global oil inventories in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA reduced the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week ending July 25, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.698 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels [3]. Group 6: Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, while its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels per day to 13.314 million barrels per day in the week of July 25. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.801 million barrels per day, 2.52% higher than the same period last year. However, the single - week supply of US crude oil products decreased by 1.76% month - on - month due to a significant decrease in other refined oil products, despite increases in gasoline and diesel demand [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply side shows a recovery in the start - up rate but still at a relatively low level in recent years. Demand is restricted by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. Cost support has weakened, and policies are more favorable for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt start - up rate rose 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In August, the domestic asphalt planned production is 241.3 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. Some refineries will switch production or have intermittent shutdowns this week [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt start - up rate remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years due to funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. Some areas' rainfall will still affect the rigid demand for asphalt [1]. - Cost: The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may narrow the discount for China's asphalt raw material purchases. Recent crude oil prices have fallen after rising, weakening the cost support for asphalt [1]. - Policy: The new round of ten key industries' stable growth work plan will be released soon, which is more beneficial for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. - Market outlook: It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2510 contract fell 1.68% to 3520 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3501 yuan/ton, the highest was 3538 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3838 to 208129 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract rose to 260 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The asphalt start - up rate rose 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data: From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, and that of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 4.6% [4]. - Downstream start - up rate: As of the week of August 1, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Fiscal policy: The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9%, and the new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of August 1, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Game, Copper Oscillates" and was produced on August 5, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The US non - farm payroll data increases the expectation of a September interest rate cut, but there is still uncertainty in the macro game. The fundamental situation is still in a loose logic, but the low domestic inventory limits the downside space. The copper market is oscillating strongly with small recent fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the support at 78,000 yuan/ton [1] Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The US July non - farm employment only added 73,000, with the June data significantly revised down to 14,000, and a cumulative downward revision of 258,000 in the past two months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 37.7% to 90%, strengthening the expectation of two rate cuts within the year, yet there are still differences in the market regarding rate cuts, and the US dollar index mainly oscillates [1] - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the SMM China electrolytic copper output in July increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year. The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling and rebounded. Three smelters have maintenance plans in the third quarter, and currently, smelters can still make up for losses with by - products such as sulfuric acid. Demand is weak in the off - season, and market trading sentiment is tepid. The subsequent tariff on copper semi - finished products may affect export demand. The SHFE inventory is still at a low level and has not significantly accumulated, supporting the price [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures market opened high, then went low and then high, oscillating strongly, closing at 78,580 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,007 to 102,914 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,487 to 106,736 lots [4] - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China is 120 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 55 yuan/ton. On August 4, 2025, the LME official price was $9,685/ton, and the spot premium was - $62.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of August 4, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $41.99/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.19 cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory is 18,767 tons, a decrease of 1,581 tons from the previous period. As of August 4, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 153,850 tons, a slight increase of 14,275 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory remained unchanged at 261,180 short tons [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Overall Futures Market**: As of August 5th, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Coal and some other commodities rose, while lithium carbonate and others declined. In the stock index futures, all major contracts rose, and in the bond futures, most contracts also showed an upward trend [4]. - **Copper**: The US non - farm payroll data increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - situation. The domestic copper fundamentals are in a loose state, but the low inventory limits the downside. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with attention on the support at 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply reduction expectation has not affected the actual production yet. The market sentiment is cooling. If the supply reduction news is false, the market may weaken further, but the optimistic downstream production plan provides some support [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Entering the seasonal travel peak, the US crude oil inventory is low, but there are concerns about supply and demand. With the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September and concerns about the US economy, the oil price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease in August. The开工 rate is low, and the inventory is at a low level. With the weakening cost support and the influence of policies, the asphalt price is expected to oscillate in the near term [11][12]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise开工 rates are at a low level. There are issues with exports and supply. With the falling oil price and high inventory, and the lack of actual policies, the PP price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, but the downstream demand is still weak. With the falling oil price, high inventory, and lack of actual policies, the plastic price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. With the new production capacity and the slow improvement of the real - estate market, the PVC price is expected to decline slightly in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose sharply today. Although the fundamentals have no obvious changes, the market sentiment is strong. It is expected to correct after the sentiment cools down, but the downside space is limited [18]. - **Urea**: The price rose today. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is improving. The market is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate, and the short - term rise can be treated as a rebound [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of August 5th, coal rose nearly 7%, polysilicon rose nearly 4%, and some other commodities also had varying degrees of increase. Lithium carbonate fell more than 2%, and some other commodities declined. In the stock index futures, all major contracts rose, and in the bond futures, most contracts also showed an upward trend [4]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:19 on August 5th, coal 2601, palm oil 2509, and polysilicon 2511 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, soda ash 2509, and soybean meal 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Core Views on Specific Commodities - **Copper**: The US non - farm payroll data increased the probability of a September interest rate cut. The domestic copper production increased in July, and the inventory is low. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure. The supply reduction expectation has not affected the actual production, and the market sentiment is cooling [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Entering the seasonal peak, there are concerns about supply and demand. With the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September and concerns about the US economy, the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease in August. The开工 rate is low, and the inventory is at a low level. The cost support is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise开工 rates are at a low level. There are issues with exports and supply. The price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, but the downstream demand is still weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline slightly, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose sharply. The fundamentals have no obvious changes, but the market sentiment is strong. It is expected to correct after the sentiment cools down, with limited downside space [18]. - **Urea**: The price rose. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is improving. The market is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and fluctuated upward today. The spot price rose steadily, and influenced by the rising futures, upstream factories had smooth sales and raised their quotes. In the future, the macro - market sentiment will gradually cool down, and the market is expected to return to fundamentals. Under the situation of strong expectations and weak reality, the market will mainly fluctuate. The current export quota remains unchanged, and the follow - up domestic demand should focus on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer factories. The current rebound is considered short - term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan started a long - cycle shutdown, and the output has been below 200,000 tons recently. In the summer, the output is expected to decline slightly further. On the demand side, industrial demand is expected to improve, and it is still based on rigid demand in the short term. The top - dressing demand for agricultural corn has ended, and downstream purchases are mainly from the industrial sector. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continues to rise and is expected to continue to increase this month. After the operating load increases, the demand for urea will increase. The market trading sentiment has improved, and the inventory decline has shown an inflection point, turning to inventory accumulation last week. The rebound today is mainly due to the rising cost - side prices, with coking coal driving up the prices of the coal - chemical industry [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,736 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 1,772 yuan/ton, up 2.67%. The trading volume was 136,100 lots (- 6,142 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 959 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,613 lots. Qisheng Futures' net long positions increased by 469 lots, and Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 1,761 lots. Huishang Futures' net short positions increased by 1,184 lots, and Guotai Junan's net short positions decreased by 3,361 lots [2] Spot - Since the weekend, the spot price has been in a downward state. Upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the results were good with an increase in orders received. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On August 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation was stable and weak, and the futures closing price declined slightly. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 8 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on August 5, 2025, the national daily urea output was 187,600 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 79.87% [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Title - "Breeding Industry Chain Data Report - Soybean Meal, Oils and Fats" [1] 2. Report Date - August 5, 2025 [2] 3. Key Points of Soybean Meal - The current price of 43% protein soybean meal is 2,976 yuan/ton, a 1.99% increase from the previous value [2] - The current spot - futures price difference of soybean meal is - 48 yuan/ton, a 33.33% decrease from the previous value [2] - The output of 111 sample enterprises of soybean meal in pressing plants is 1.5476 million tons, a 0.19% increase from the previous value [2] - The daily trading volume of soybean meal in pressing plants is 182,900 tons, an 82.72% increase from the previous value [2] - The apparent consumption of 111 sample enterprises of soybean meal is 1.5484 million tons, a 3.43% increase from the previous value [2] - The inventory of 111 sample enterprises of soybean meal in pressing plants is 0.9163 million tons, a 0.09% decrease from the previous value [2] - The current basis of the main contract of soybean meal spot is - 32.29 yuan/ton, a 44.19% decrease from the previous value [2] 4. Key Points of Oils and Fats - The current inventory of palm oil in China is 582,200 tons, a 5.41% decrease from the previous value [7] - The current inventory of rapeseed oil in China is 661,500 tons, a 0.50% increase from the previous value [7] - The current inventory of soybean oil in pressing plants in China is 1.1174 million tons, a 2.69% increase from the previous value [7] - The current spot - futures price difference of palm oil in China is 22 yuan/ton, a 53.19% decrease from the previous value [7] - The current spot - futures price difference of rapeseed oil in China is 120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [7] - The current spot - futures price difference of soybean oil and palm oil in China is - 420 yuan/ton, a 42.31% decrease from the previous value [7] - The current basis of the main contract of palm oil spot is 58.33 yuan/ton, a 43.91% decrease from the previous value [7] - The current basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil spot is 141 yuan/ton, an 18.97% decrease from the previous value [7] - The current basis of the main contract of soybean oil spot is 103.37 yuan/ton, a 42.74% decrease from the previous value [7]

Group 1: Hot News - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk-based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For financial institutions and exchange service providers, when the amount of funds remitted abroad by customers is RMB 5,000 or more per transaction, or the foreign currency equivalent of $1,000 or more, they should verify the identity of the remitter to ensure the accuracy of the remitter's information. Payment institutions need to register when selling prepaid cards worth more than RMB 10,000 at one time [2] - In the first half of the year, China's total service imports and exports reached 3.88726 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Among them, exports were 1.6883 trillion yuan, up 15%; imports were 2.19896 trillion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit was 510.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 152.21 billion yuan [2] - According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in July were 1.18 million, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month decrease of 4%. Among them, Tesla China sold 67,900 vehicles in July, a month-on-month decrease of 5.2% [2] - US President Trump said that India is not only buying a large amount of Russian oil but also reselling a large part of it on the open market to make huge profits. Therefore, the US will significantly increase the tariffs paid by India to the US [2] - In July, imported soybeans arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the operating rate of oil mills remained high. The soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 10.1 million tons, basically flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 14.59%. Last week, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills remained at a high level. As of the week ending August 1, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.25 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 20,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 80,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 180,000 tons, and an increase of 360,000 tons compared with the average of the same period in the past three years. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will remain high this week, with a crushing volume of about 2.2 million tons [3] Group 2: Key Focus - The sectors to focus on are urea, coking coal, plastic, Shanghai copper, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - The night session performance of different commodity sectors shows that non-metallic building materials rose 2.89%, precious metals rose 28.20%, oilseeds rose 12.31%, non-ferrous and soft commodities rose 2.53% and 21.15% respectively, coal, coke, steel and ore rose 14.26%, energy rose 3.09%, chemicals rose 11.61%, grains rose 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.78% [4] Group 4: Plate Position - The changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented, but specific data is not clearly described in text form [5] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of different asset classes are provided. For example, among equities, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% daily, 0.28% monthly, and 6.91% annually; among fixed-income products, the 10-year Treasury bond futures rose 0.02% daily, -0.01% monthly, and -0.42% annually; among commodities, the CRB Commodity Index fell -0.55% daily, -1.50% monthly, and -0.49% annually [7] Group 6: Major Commodity Trends - The trends of major commodities are presented through various charts, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [8]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/08/05 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.85%报 3428.60 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.40%报 37.45 美元/盎司。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锌涨 0.99%报 2754.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 0.81%报 9708.50 美元/吨，LME 期镍涨 0.79%报 15105.00 美元/吨。 4. 国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。焦煤、铁矿石、菜粕涨超 1%。跌幅方面，玻璃 跌超 2%，烧碱、燃料油、液化石油气（LPG）、沥青、玉米跌超 1%。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 8 月 4 日，中国机械工业联合会副会长、新闻发言人罗俊杰在 2025 年上半年 机械工业经济运行形势信息发布会上表示 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Copper prices are influenced by U.S. non - farm data increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, a weaker dollar, and a low inventory in China. The market is overall weak, and attention should be paid to the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment is cooling, and the market is currently oscillating strongly. If the news of supply - side production cuts is false, the market may turn weak [8] Crude Oil - Due to the seasonal peak travel season and low U.S. crude oil inventories, but with an unexpected large increase in U.S. crude oil stocks and OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [10] Asphalt - With开工率 changes, inventory status, and cost factors, asphalt is expected to oscillate in the near term [11][12] PP - Given factors such as downstream开工率, supply, cost, and policy expectations, PP is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13] Plastic - Considering开工率, demand, cost, and policy factors, plastic is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15] PVC - With supply, demand, inventory, and policy conditions, PVC is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] Coking Coal - Although the market sentiment is cooling, due to the expectation of supply tightening, the downward space for coking coal price correction is limited [18] Urea - The market is oscillating, and future trends depend on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer plants and export conditions. The 09 contract has limited upward and downward space [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 4, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Logs and coking coal rose by over 2%, while eggs fell by over 4%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 1.063 billion yuan, while CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 1.092 billion yuan [4] Copper - The U.S. non - farm data increased the probability of a September interest rate cut. China's copper production increased in July, and the TC/RC fee stopped falling. The market is in a slack season with weak demand, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is low [7] Lithium Carbonate - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The supply - side开工率 increased, and there is an expected reduction in supply. The cost support is weakening, and downstream demand is expected to increase [8] Crude Oil - It's the seasonal peak travel season, and U.S. crude oil inventories are low. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the IEA has adjusted the global crude oil surplus for 2025 [10] Asphalt - The开工率 of asphalt production has rebounded, and the expected production in August has decreased. The downstream开工率 varies, and the inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level. The cost support is weakening [11][12] PP - The downstream开工率 of PP has slightly increased, and the enterprise开工率 has risen. The upstream propane import is restricted, and there is new production capacity. The downstream recovery is slow, and the inventory pressure is high [13] Plastic - The plastic开工率 is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工率 has increased slightly. There is new production capacity, and the downstream is in a slack season with weak demand and high inventory [14][15] PVC - The PVC开工率 has increased slightly, and the downstream开工率 is low. Exports are affected by policies, and the social inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price showed a mixed trend. The supply from Mongolia is high, and the domestic coal production has not significantly decreased. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand may be affected by the decline in iron - water production [18] Urea - The urea price weekend decline attracted orders. The production is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizer plants is increasing. The inventory has started to accumulate [19]