Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated July 29, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures contract spreads, basis, and variety spreads [1]. 1. Contract Spreads - **Price Changes**: I05 closed at 738.0 yuan/ton, down 14.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 786.0 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan; I01 closed at 757.0 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The I05 - I09 spread was -48.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan; the I09 - I01 spread was 29.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan; the I01 - I05 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan [3]. 2. Basis 2.1 Basis Data - **Price Changes**: Various iron ore varieties showed price changes, such as a 17.0 - yuan decrease in Carajás fines (Carajás fines) to 866 yuan/ton, a 11.0 - yuan decrease in BRBF to 792 yuan/ton, etc. [6]. - **Basis Changes**: The basis of different varieties also changed. For example, the basis of Carajás fines decreased by 2 to 36 yuan/ton, while the basis of BRBF increased by 4 to 31 yuan/ton [6]. 2.2 Basis Charts - Charts show the basis trends of different iron ore varieties like Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, etc., with data from November 2024 to July 2025 [8][9][10]. 2.3 Policy Adjustments - **New Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) were added with a brand premium of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [11]. - **Premium Adjustments**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while others are 0 [11]. - **Quality and Premium Adjustments**: The allowable range of iron grade is adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of other elements are set. The premium for iron element is dynamically adjusted with X values determined semi - annually [11]. - **New Deliverable Brands**: Four new deliverable brands (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) were added with a brand premium of 0, applicable to I2312 and subsequent contracts [11]. 3. Variety Spreads 3.1 Variety Spread Data - **Spread Changes**: For example, the PB lump - PB fines spread was 145.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan; the PB fines - FMG mixed fines spread was 68.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan [13]. 3.2 Variety Spread Charts - Charts show the spread trends of different iron ore varieties including lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [14][15][16][17][19][20][21]. 4. Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with rich industry experience and relevant qualifications [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to be volatile. 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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 7.98% to 73,120 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 1,000 yuan/ton to 73,900 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 1,000 yuan/ton to 71,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 2,300 yuan/ton to 65,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 280 tons to 12,276 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the production in July is expected to increase 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production decreased 485 tons to 18,630 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 17,700 tons, a 16.3% month - on - month decrease. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased 550 tons to 143,170 tons, with downstream inventory increasing 1,544 tons to 42,815 tons, intermediate link inventory increasing 1,660 tons to 44,970 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing 2,654 tons to 55,385 tons [3]. - The core short - term fundamental contradiction lies in concerns about supply disruptions, but there is still no clear announcement. Affected by the market, market volatility is high, and opportunities to short volatility in the future market can be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 73,120 yuan/ton, down 7,400 yuan from July 25; the closing price of the continuous contract was 71,700 yuan/ton, down 7,700 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained unchanged at 1,165 yuan/ton, while the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) rose 15 yuan to 1,805 yuan/ton. The prices of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) and (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased by 590 yuan and 600 yuan respectively [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide also increased, with an increase of 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose 250 yuan/ton. There were also changes in various price spreads and the prices of ternary precursors, cathode materials, and batteries [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. 3.2.3 Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025, as well as the basis [16][17][19]. 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from December 2024 to July 2025 [35][36][38]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many spot leading enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won many awards [43]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [44]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to oscillate weakly. The 9 - month contract has reduced positions and adjusted, while the 1 - month contract has increased positions. The supply pressure in the spot market is increasing, and the market's bullish expectation is not strong. The import of corn continues to supply the market, and the price is expected to decline [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to decline. The CBOT soybean closed lower on Monday due to favorable weather in the US. The domestic soybean meal is weak, following the decline of the outer market. The expected reduction of Argentina's tariffs and overseas procurement by Chinese feed enterprises drag down the forward price of soybean meal [1]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. The BMD palm oil continues to be weak, with production increasing and exports decreasing. The domestic oil futures prices have declined, and the inventory pressure is still there. The market is mainly oscillating due to various factors [1]. - Eggs are expected to oscillate. After a previous rebound, the egg futures corrected. The spot price declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still bearish. However, in the long - term, the current breeding is at the bottom [1][2]. - Hogs are expected to oscillate. The hog futures corrected, and the spot price continued to weaken. The supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak fundamental situation, and the main contract has returned to the oscillating pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: The 9 - month contract of corn has reduced positions, and the 1 - month contract has increased positions. The supply pressure in the spot market is increasing, especially in the 8 - 9 month period. The price in the Northeast is stable, while that in North China is slightly weak. The import corn auction has a 28%成交 rate, and the market's bullish expectation is not strong. Technically, the 9 - month contract price has returned to the 2320 - 2330 yuan range, and the price is expected to decline [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean closed lower on Monday due to good weather in the US. The US soybean good rate is 70%, higher than expected. The domestic soybean meal is weak, following the outer market. The expected reduction of Argentina's tariffs and overseas procurement by Chinese feed enterprises drag down the forward price. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading [1]. - **Oils**: The BMD palm oil is weak due to the decline of vegetable oils and concerns about increased production. From July 1 - 25, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.52% compared to the same period last month, while the export decreased by 8.53%. The domestic oil futures prices have declined, and the inventory pressure is still there. The market is mainly oscillating [1]. - **Eggs**: After a previous rebound, the egg futures corrected. The main 2509 contract opened lower and then rebounded, and then declined again. The spot price declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still bearish. However, in the long - term, the current breeding is at the bottom [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures corrected, and the spot price continued to weaken. The supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. The market is in a weak fundamental situation, and the main contract has returned to the oscillating pattern [2]. 3.2 Market Information - From July 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.08% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.10%, and the production increased by 5.52%. The export volume from July 1 - 25 is expected to be 684,308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [3]. - As of the week of July 25, the soybean crushing volume of domestic main oil mills was 2.24 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons week - on - week, 250,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year, and an increase of 450,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years [3]. - It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume of national main oil mills in July will be about 10 million tons, still at a historical high. In August, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, considering the risk of heat damage in summer, the oil mills are expected to maintain a high operating rate, and the monthly crushing volume will be about 9 million tons [4]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report presents the contract spreads and contract basis of various agricultural products, including corn, soybean, soybean meal, oil, eggs, and hogs, but does not provide specific analysis of these spreads [5][6][8][9][12][13][14][18][24][26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures price dropped significantly, with inventory increasing and supply-demand pressure intensifying. The sharp drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment, and the short-term rebar futures may oscillate [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price declined, with an increase in global shipments and a decrease in iron ore output. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price fell, and the spot market was weak. With the fourth round of price increases for coke basically implemented, the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Coke: The futures price dropped, and the fourth round of price increases was basically implemented. After the price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants showed fear of high prices. The short-term futures may oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot price decreased. The supply-demand outlook improved, and the cost was expected to rise. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the end-of-month meeting [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot was tight. Production enthusiasm increased, and the supply-demand situation improved marginally. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the meeting results [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The spot price and trading volume decreased, and inventory increased. The profit from producing rebar was better, and the supply-demand pressure would increase. The drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The i2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2%. The spot price decreased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore output decreased, and inventory increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2509 contract closed at 1100.5 yuan/ton, down 158.5 yuan/ton or 12.59%. The spot price decreased, and some traders sold at lower prices. The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Coke**: The 2509 contract closed at 1608.5 yuan/ton, down 154.5 yuan/ton or 8.76%. The spot price decreased, and the fourth round of price increases was implemented. The steel mills' profit was high, but the exchange's measures and participants' fear of high prices may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price closed at 6028 yuan/ton, down 2.96%. The spot price decreased, and the supply-demand outlook improved. The cost was expected to rise, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5840 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The spot was tight, and production enthusiasm increased. The supply-demand situation improved marginally, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Rebar**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -41.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -22.0, down -3.0. The 10 - contract basis was 142.0, up 68.0; the 01 - contract basis was 101.0, up 70.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -12.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -10.0, down -6.0. The 10 - contract basis was 43.0, up 50.0; the 01 - contract basis was 31.0, up 49.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Iron ore**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was 29.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 19.0, down -1.5. The 09 - contract basis was 31.0, up 4.4; the 01 - contract basis was 60.0, up 3.4. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder decreased [4]. - **Coke**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -42.0, up 6.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -26.5, up 7.5. The 09 - contract basis was -51.8, up 121.9; the 01 - contract basis was -93.8, up 127.9. The spot price in Rizhao decreased [4]. - **Coking coal**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -79.5, down -20.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -4.5, down -13.5. The 09 - contract basis was -62.5, up 158.5; the 01 - contract basis was -142.0, up 138.5. The spot price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Manganese silicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -74.0, down -10.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -28.0, down -12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -328.0, up 386.0; the 01 - contract basis was -402.0, up 376.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia changed [4]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -108.0, up 12.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -42.0, up 12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -240.0, up 326.0; the 01 - contract basis was -348.0, up 338.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 103.9, down -3.5; the long - process profit was 231.0, down -18.5; the short - process profit was 76.3, down -96.9. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 149.0, down -2.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.1, down -0.05; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.5, up 0.06 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract price**: The report presents the price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10][11][14][15] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spread**: The report displays the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [25][30][31][33][34][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety contract spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore through charts [39][40][41][43] - **3.5 Rebar profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar's main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, through charts [44][45][47] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many awards [49] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [49] - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49] - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Volatile" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices moved up due to geopolitical tensions, but the rebound is limited without substantial supply disruptions [1] - Fuel oil market structure slightly recovered, with expected increased arrivals from Europe in July [2] - Asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilizes [2] - Polyester prices are expected to return to the previous oscillation range due to cost support and low inventory [3] - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to macro events and supply factors [3] - Methanol is expected to enter an oscillation phase after valuation repair [4] - Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited downside space if the cost does not drop significantly [4] - PVC supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is slowly decreasing [4] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI 9 - month contract rose $1.55 to $66.71 per barrel, Brent 9 - month contract rose $1.60 to $70.04 per barrel, and SC2509 rose 10.4 yuan to 515.9 yuan per barrel. Geopolitical tensions caused by Trump's actions on the Russia - Ukraine issue led to a rise in oil prices, but the rebound is limited without actual supply impact [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, FU2509 fell 0.9% to 2869 yuan/ton, and LU2510 fell 1.03% to 3545 yuan/ton. The market structure slightly recovered, with expected increased arrivals from Europe in July [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, BU2509 fell 1.05% to 3569 yuan/ton. Entering August, supply may increase slightly, but demand is affected by rainfall. The market is supported by low supply and inventory [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 fell 2.51% to 4812 yuan/ton, EG2509 fell 2.4% to 4436 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" market subsided, but cost support and low inventory are expected to keep prices oscillating [3] - **Rubber**: On Monday, RU2509 fell 520 yuan/ton to 15065 yuan/ton, NR fell 510 yuan/ton to 12810 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" market subsided, and short - term macro events will cause price fluctuations [3] - **Methanol**: Comprehensive factors such as increased Iranian device load and arrivals, stable downstream profits and inventory increase lead to weak fundamentals, and it is expected to oscillate after valuation repair [4] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the downside space is limited if the cost does not drop significantly [4] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The basis and monthly spread are widening [4] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on July 29, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change and historical quantile of basis rate [6] 3.3 Market News - Trump advanced the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire deadline, causing concerns about potential supply disruptions in the crude oil market [9] - The EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and traders are preparing for a tighter European diesel market and possible redirection of Russian oil exports [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][31][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [62][64][68] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [71][73][74] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in relevant fields [76][77][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Oscillating [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the short - term [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock indices, the recent Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission emphasized the construction of a unified national market with "five unifications and one opening". The market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization under the anti - involution background. However, the central government is still stimulating the economy through investment, which may bring incremental funds in the short - term but the long - term effect remains to be seen. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down due to strong "non - farm" data, weakening the boost to domestic small - cap indices. The index fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. With PPI continuing to decline in June, credit contraction and insufficient demand are the main contradictions, making it difficult for the index to break through the central level and rise significantly. On the other hand, corporate profits in the first half of 2025 improved compared to 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A - share index is not likely to fall sharply in the short - term. It is expected to oscillate in the future [1]. - For treasury bonds, on July 28, 2025, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts rose by 0.56%, 0.18%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. After deducting the 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repos due on the same day, the net investment was 325.1 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 in the inter - bank market decreased. The export growth rate in June exceeded expectations, the total financial data exceeded expectations and the structure continued to improve. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 5.2%, and the economic data in June remained resilient, reducing the short - term expectation of interest - rate cuts. Since July, the anti - involution policy expectations have driven up market risk appetite, with stock indices and commodities rising strongly, suppressing the bond market sentiment. In the short - term, the bond market rebound is basically over, and the bond market is expected to show a recovery trend, with treasury bonds bullish in the short - term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes in the Second Quarter - Stock Index Futures: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, IH rose by 9.0 points (0.32%), IF rose by 6.0 points (0.15%), IC rose by 6.0 points (0.10%), and IM fell by 3.8 points (- 0.06%) [3] - Stock Indices: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose by 7.3 points (0.26%), the CSI 300 rose by 8.7 points (0.21%), the CSI 500 rose by 23.8 points (0.38%), and the CSI 1000 rose by 23.4 points (0.35%) [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, TS rose by 0.052 points (0.05%), TF rose by 0.15 points (0.14%), T rose by 0.215 points (0.20%), and TL rose by 0.83 points (0.70%) [3] 3.2 Market News - On July 28, regarding the Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China's stance on economic and trade issues is consistent. China hopes that the US will implement the important consensus reached in the phone call between the two heads of state, play the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and communication [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the monthly basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9][10] 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][16][17] 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [20][21][22][24][25][27] 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [28] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn 9 - month contract is in a downward trend, with the futures price showing a volatile and weak performance in the short - term due to technical resistance, while the spot price in some areas has rebounded [2] - The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile. Uncertainties in cost and supply, potential large - scale soybean purchases, and the promotion of soybean meal substitution have led to a decline in prices, and short - term trading strategies are recommended [2] - The oil market is predicted to be volatile. The international palm oil production and export situation is changing, and the domestic oil market shows a strong and volatile trend. A long - only strategy and 9 - 1 positive spread holding are recommended [2] - The egg market is expected to be volatile. The future demand is favorable for egg prices, but due to high inventory and other supply issues, the peak price is likely to be lower than last year [3] - The pig market is predicted to be volatile. Terminal consumption is weak, the market supply exceeds demand, and it will take time to resolve over - capacity issues [3] Group 3: Summary According to Market Information - From July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.19% month - on - month, but the export volume decreased by 7.31% month - on - month [4] - By 2034, the global per capita vegetable oil consumption is estimated to increase from 15.05 kg to 15.68 kg, and the per capita consumption in China and Brazil is expected to reach 27 kg. The nominal prices of oilseeds and oilseed products are expected to rise slightly [4] - As of July 15, 2025, the total inventory of vegetable oils in Indian ports increased by 18% in half a month [5] - CGSG Grain and Oil Network plans to conduct a tender for the purchase of 500 tons of rapeseed oil on July 24 [5] Group 4: Summary According to Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis charts for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific spread data analysis is provided [6][15]

光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 软商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉上涨 0.73%，报收 68.74 美分/磅，CF509 环比下降 0.42%，报收 14160 | 宽幅震 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 19304 手至 51.89 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15431 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 20 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15563 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 20 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期美棉整体驱动有限，市场关注重心更多在 | | | | 于宏观层面。昨日美元指数与美棉价格共振上行。特朗普访问美联储总部，再度施 | | | | 压美联储降息，但表示解雇鲍威尔将是一个重大举措但没必要，其任期即将届满。 | | | | 7 月美联储议息会议大概率按兵不动，9 月降息概率较大，关注预期是否会有变动， | 荡 | | | 基本面驱动有限。国内市场方面，郑棉期价日内震荡偏弱。近期郑棉驱动的主要逻 | | | | 辑并未发生改变，低库 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content was found in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices showed a decline overnight, with LME copper down 0.8% to $9,854.5 per ton and SHFE copper down 0.69% to 79,290 yuan per ton. The domestic spot import remained in a slight loss. Despite many bullish factors, the weekly copper market should be viewed with caution due to uncertainties [1]. - Alumina trended higher, with AO2509 closing at 3,477 yuan per ton, up 2.72%. Aluminum and aluminum alloy also showed a slightly stronger trend. Due to factors such as alumina plant maintenance and raw material stocking, the supply of alumina and aluminum is tightening [1]. - Nickel prices fell overnight, with LME nickel down 0.67% to $15,470 per ton and SHFE nickel down 0.64% to 123,250 yuan per ton. The stainless - steel market's supply - demand pattern is gradually being repaired, but the short - term nickel price is still in a volatile state [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper prices dropped, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories changed. In terms of demand, the off - season led to weak consumption, but some enterprises replenished stocks in advance due to concerns about price increases. Near the end of July and early August, there are many bullish factors, but risks also need attention [1]. - **Alumina and Aluminum**: Alumina prices rose, with AO2509 up 2.72%. Aluminum and aluminum alloy also showed a stronger trend. Factors such as plant maintenance and raw material stocking led to a tightening of supply. The aluminum alloy's unilateral rebound space is limited, but AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunities can be considered [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined overnight. LME nickel inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel inventory remained stable. The stainless - steel market's cost support weakened, and the supply - demand pattern is being repaired. Short - term nickel prices are volatile [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased slightly, and the price of scrap copper increased. LME copper inventory decreased, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories increased. The social inventory decreased by 25,000 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory increased by 7,186 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory of LME and SHFE aluminum changed, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 12,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The inventory of LME nickel decreased, and the social inventory increased by 1,165 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The prices of zinc and zinc alloys increased slightly. The inventory of SHFE zinc increased by 793 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory increased by 5,300 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The SMM spot price of tin increased by 3,500 yuan per ton. The inventory of SHFE tin increased by 51 tons on a weekly basis [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It includes charts of the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: It presents the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series products from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report includes charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 4. Introduction to the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience and many professional achievements [51]. - Wang Heng is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50][51]. - Zhu Xi is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [52].