1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation phase. The spot market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and environmental protection restrictions have increased, which has a certain boost to market sentiment [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show a narrow - range oscillation trend. There are both positive and negative factors in supply, demand, and inventory [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate in an oscillatory manner. The supply and demand sides are affected by factors such as environmental protection inspections, steel prices, and cost pressures [1]. - The manganese - silicon market is likely to experience weak oscillations. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, although the cost side has some support [1][3]. - The silicon - iron market is expected to operate weakly and oscillate. The supply and demand are both at a low level, and the price drivers are limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 48,100 lots in positions. Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume remained low. Environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan may affect production, and the short - term disk is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 708.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (0.98%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 340,000 lots and a decrease of 14,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices showed mixed trends. Supply decreased slightly, demand (blast furnace operating rate) remained flat while iron - water production increased, and inventory showed different trends. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (1.27%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 1,806 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas changed. Supply is expected to be more relaxed as environmental inspections end, and demand may be affected by environmental protection in some areas. The short - term disk is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1388.5 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan/ton (1.1%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 1,264 lots in positions. Spot prices in ports increased. Supply was affected by environmental protection and cost pressures, and demand was supported by blast - furnace operations but also faced negative feedback from the weak terminal market. The short - term disk is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon futures price weakened oscillatively. The main contract was reported at 5624 yuan/ton, down 0.95% month - on - month, with a decrease of 7,716 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production has been increasing for six consecutive weeks, demand is still at a low level, and the cost side has some support. The short - term is expected to operate weakly and oscillate [1][3]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The silicon - iron futures price weakened oscillatively. The main contract was reported at 5270 yuan/ton, down 2.04% month - on - month, with an increase of 5,156 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production remained stable at a low level, demand was at a historical low, and the price drivers were limited during the off - season. The short - term is expected to operate weakly and oscillate [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different trends, such as the 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also showed different changes, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract and 01 - contract of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different regions and varieties changed, including rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou; hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou; and various iron - ore powders [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Different profit indicators (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spread indicators (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron - ore ratio, etc.) showed different changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Included price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Showed the basis trends of main contracts of various varieties over different time periods [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Presented the spread trends of inter - period contracts of different varieties, such as the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [27][29][31][34][36][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trends of inter - variety contracts, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron - ore ratio, etc. [41][43][45]. - **Rebar Profits**: Showed the profit trends of the rebar main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal research [52]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二，玉米 | | | 9 月期价震荡上行，进口玉米拍卖溢价成交，现货市场强势表现对玉 | 震荡 | | 米期价提供支撑。周初，玉米 | | | 7 月持仓下降，资金向 9 月合约移仓较为有限，期 | | | 价连续四日呈现震荡表现。现货市场方面，周末玉米报价稳中偏强运行。目前进 | | | | | | 口玉米拍卖消息已出，从周末市场表现来看并未受到明显影响，东北部分深加工 | | | | | | 玉米收购价格继续上调，产区玉米报价仍维持在相对高位。周末华北地区玉米到 | | | | | | 货量维持低位，加上近期阴雨天气较多，部分深加工企业玉米价格继续上行，普 | | | | | | 玉米 | | | 遍上调 10-20 元/吨。基层余粮不断减少，贸易商挺价意愿较强。周末销区市场 | | | 玉米价格坚挺运行。港口贸易商报价坚挺，下游提货速度一般，港口库存仍有压 | | | | | | 力。饲料企业对玉米高价接受度有限，小部分企业刚需采购玉米 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高，上涨 0.66%至 9943 | 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.46%至 80390 | | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势。宏观方面，美国 6 月 | ISM 制造业 PMI 指数为 49，连 | | | | | 续四个月萎缩，预期为 48.8，前值为 48.5。美国 5 月 | JOLTS 职位空缺 776.9 万人，高 | | | | | 于预期的 730 万人，前值为 739.1 | 万人，该数值大幅超出市场预期，显示市场韧性。 | | | | | 美联储主席鲍威尔在一次会议上未排除 7 | 月降息可能，称若非关税已降息，关税料将 | | | | | 对通胀产生影响。关税方面，7 月 9 | 日关税重启最后期限，特朗普政府正在调整贸易 | | | | 铜 | | 谈判策略，从寻求全面互惠协议转向更有限的分阶段协议，以避免对部分国家重新征 | | | | | 收严厉关税。库存方面， ...

1. Index Trends - On July 01, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to close at 3457.75 points, with a trading volume of 553.557 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.11% to close at 10476.29 points, with a trading volume of 912.459 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28%, with a trading volume of 334.302 billion yuan, opening at 6358.06, closing at 6373.77, with a daily high of 6373.77 and a low of 6308.06 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.33%, with a trading volume of 213.596 billion yuan, opening at 5915.8, closing at 5934.67, with a daily high of 5936.92 and a low of 5890.11 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, with a trading volume of 66.144 billion yuan, opening at 2714.97, closing at 2717.71, with a daily high of 2721.4 and a low of 2708.19 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 17.59 points from the previous close. Sectors such as Medicine and Biology, Non - ferrous Metals, and Basic Chemicals significantly pulled the index up, while Non - Banking Finance and Computer sectors pulled it down [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 19.28 points from the previous close. Sectors like Medicine and Biology, Electronics, and Non - ferrous Metals significantly pulled the index up, while Power Equipment and Computer sectors pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 5.72 points from the previous close. Sectors including Banking, Non - ferrous Metals, and Medicine and Biology significantly pulled the index up, while Power Equipment, Food and Beverage, and Electronics sectors pulled it down [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 77.15, IM01 of - 151.38, IM02 of - 226.11, and IM03 of - 403.9 [13]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 57.04, IC01 of - 105.34, IC02 of - 158.75, and IC03 of - 282.0 [13]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 27.6, IF01 of - 43.21, IF02 of - 52.91, and IF03 of - 86.83 [13]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of - 20.26, IH01 of - 24.66, IH02 of - 26.31, and IH03 of - 27.13 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts at different 15 - minute intervals throughout the trading day [22][24][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 1, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.16% to 62,780 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 61,300 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 59,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 57,720 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 312 tons to 22,940 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly lithium carbonate production increased 305 tons to 18,767 tons, with a relatively obvious increase from mica. In June, the lithium carbonate production increased over 9% month - on - month. On the demand side, according to third - party production scheduling data, the production of lithium iron phosphate in July is expected to increase 3% month - on - month, and the production of ternary materials is expected to increase 1.3% month - on - month. The weekly inventory turnover days have all increased, with a relatively obvious increase in lithium iron phosphate. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased 1,936 tons to 136,837 tons, with downstream inventory increasing 269 tons to 40,635 tons, intermediate link inventory increasing 1,260 tons to 37,170 tons, and upstream inventory increasing 407 tons to 59,032 tons [3]. - Last week, the lithium ore transaction price increased slightly. Lithium salt plants announced shutdowns for maintenance and technological upgrades, and there were many disturbances in the market news. However, the current price faces certain hedging pressure, and there are no signs of production cuts at the mine end. In the short term, it may still fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 62,780 yuan/ton on July 1, 2025, up 520 yuan from June 30; the closing price of the continuous contract was 62,980 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 625 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 720 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained at 1,255 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 61,300 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 59,700 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 57,720 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,870 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 52,070 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained at 8.1 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Other Products**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 51,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. Among the prices of precursors and cathode materials, most remained unchanged, with only the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) up 20 yuan/ton to 71,310 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary material 811 (power - type) down 20 yuan/ton to 142,530 yuan/ton. The price of most lithium batteries remained unchanged, with only the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries down 0.001 yuan/Wh to 0.299 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Price**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Price**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - **Price Difference**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Precursor & Cathode Material**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - **Lithium Battery Price**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to June 2025 [35][37]. - **Production Cost**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [43]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [44]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [44].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: July 2, 2025 [2] 1. Futures Contract Price and Spread 1.1 Futures Contract Price - I05 closed at 668.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan from the previous day [4] - I09 closed at 708.5 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan [4] - I01 closed at 685.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan [4] 1.2 Futures Contract Spread - The spread between I05 and I09 was -40.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan [4] - The spread between I09 and I01 was 23.5 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan [4] - The spread between I01 and I05 was 16.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan [4] 2. Basis 2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, prices mostly decreased compared to the previous day, with changes ranging from -10.0 yuan (Newman powder) to 0.0 yuan (some varieties like He Gang concentrate powder) [7] - Basis values also showed various changes, such as a 7-yuan increase for He Gang concentrate powder and a 4-yuan decrease for Newman powder [7] 2.2 Basis Charts - Charts show the basis trends of different iron ore types, including Brazilian powder ore, Australian medium-grade powder ore, etc., from September 2024 to May 2025 [9][10][11] 3. Variety Spread 3.1 Variety Spread Data - The spread between PB block and PB powder remained unchanged at 148.0 yuan/ton [14] - The spread between PB powder and mixed powder remained at 61.0 yuan/ton, while the spread between PB powder and super special powder decreased by 2.0 yuan to 108.0 yuan/ton [14] 3.2 Variety Spread Charts - Charts display the spread trends of different iron ore varieties, such as block-powder spread, high-medium grade powder ore spread, etc. [16][18][22][23] 4. Contract Rule Changes - Since December 2, the main iron ore contract has been the I2205 contract [12] - Four new deliverable varieties (Ben Gang concentrate powder, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate powder) were added, with brand premiums of 0 yuan/ton starting from the I2202 contract [12] - Brand premiums for existing varieties were adjusted, with only PB powder, BRBF, and Carajas powder having a premium of 15 yuan/ton, and others at 0 yuan/ton [12] - The allowable range of iron grade indicators was adjusted to ≥56%, and allowable ranges for other elements were set, with more detailed quality premium and discount rules [12] - Four more varieties (Tai Gang concentrate powder, Ma Gang concentrate powder, Wugang standard powder, SP10 powder) were added as deliverable brands with brand premiums of 0 yuan/ton [12] - The adjusted deliverable brands and premiums apply to contracts from I2312 onwards [13] 5. Research Team Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the Guangda Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [26] - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at the institute, has rich experience in futures research [26] - Liu Xi, a black researcher at the institute, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [26] - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher, has experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][4][5][7] Core Viewpoints - The oil price fluctuates to find a direction under the background of OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes, and is expected to continue the oscillating rhythm in the short term [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies; the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, and the internal and external price difference is expected to remain low [2] - The asphalt supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [2] - The polyester products are affected by device conditions and downstream demand, and the prices are expected to oscillate [3] - The rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the balance of supply and demand [3][5] - The methanol price is expected to oscillate as the import volume may increase and the MTO profit is compressed [5] - The polyolefin supply is high but the increase is limited, and the price center moves with the cost [5] - The PVC price is expected to continue oscillating due to the off - season demand and the change of basis and monthly spread structure [5][7] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center moved slightly higher. OPEC+ is expected to announce an 8 - month daily production increase of 411,000 barrels on July 6. Trump's trade remarks and inventory data affect the oil price, which is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures prices fell on Tuesday. The inventory of imported raw material oil in Shandong decreased year - on - year. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger, and the price may rebound briefly, while the low - sulfur supply is sufficient [2] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rose on Tuesday. The July production is expected to increase. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north [2] - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX fluctuated on Tuesday. The MEG and PTA devices are affected, and the downstream demand is weak, so the prices are expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: The rubber futures prices rose on Tuesday. The heavy - truck sales increased in June, but the raw material price decreased, and the inventory increased slightly, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [3][5] - **Methanol**: The methanol spot prices are given. With the recovery of Iranian devices, the import volume may increase, and the MTO profit compression may lead to device maintenance, so the price is expected to oscillate [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and profits of polyolefins are provided. The supply is high but the increase is limited, and the price center moves with the cost [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. With the off - season demand, the price is expected to continue oscillating [5][7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical commodities on July 2, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc [8] Market News - Investors are concerned about the trade negotiations before the July 9 tariff deadline set by Trump. The US Treasury Secretary warns that tariffs may be raised significantly [10] - The US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by about 700,000 barrels last week, and there were also changes in other inventory data [10] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various commodities from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, etc [12][13][14][16][19][22][23][25] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts of various commodities are provided, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [27][29][33][36][39][40] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [42][44][47][50][51][55][57][58] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spread and ratio charts between different commodities are presented, including crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [59][61][65][66] - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc are shown [68][70] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with rich experience and many awards [72] - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst of crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with professional background and achievements [73] - **Di Yilin**: An analyst of natural rubber and polyester, with awards and media exposure [74] - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst of methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with relevant academic and practical experience [75] Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [77]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 02 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 美联储主席近日接受国会质询，表示将依据 6 至 7 月数据决定降息路径，同 | | | | 时点阵图也显示美联储内部对于降息意见分歧加大，这都使得市场开始提前 | | | | 计价降息，纳斯达克逼近历史高位。A 股同样受到提振，连续两日上涨，但 | | | A | 股估值目前处于历史均值以上水平，很难连续大幅冲高。此外，稳定币概 | | | | 念近期火爆，稳定币对于跨境交易结算具有较高的便利性，同时也可用作新 | | | | 型储备货币，对于一个国家的金融市场高水平对外开放意义非凡。在 A 股市 | | | 股指 | 场缺乏热点题材的当下，确实可以作为资金重点流入的对象。但是，稳定币 | 震荡 | | | 作为交易媒介取代美元的道路仍较为遥远，市场不宜过分追高。国内基本面 | | | | 上，6 月制造业 PMI 录得 49.7，环比上涨，但仍处于收缩区间；5 月 PPI 同 | | | | 比-3.3%，较 4 月环比下滑；新增人民 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约跌 0.77%至 62260 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 150 元/吨至 61300 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 150 元/吨至 59700 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 150 元/吨至 57820 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 630 吨至 22628 吨。 2. 供应端，周度碳酸锂产量环比增加 305 吨至 18767 吨，其中云母增量相对明显，6 月碳酸锂产量环 比增加超 9%。需求端，周度库存周转天数均有增加，磷酸铁锂相对增加明显，据富宝样本企业排 产，三元材料环比有所增加，磷酸铁锂环比小幅下降。库存端，周度库存环比增加 1936 吨至 136837 吨，其中下游增加 269 吨至 40635 吨，中间环节增加 1260 吨至 37170 吨，上游增加 407 吨至 59032 吨。 3. 上周锂矿成交价格小幅上涨，锂盐厂宣布停产检修及技改，叠加市场消息面扰动较多，但当前 ...

1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 672.0 | 673.0 | -1.0 | I05-I09 | -43.5 | -43.5 | 0.0 | | I09 | 715.5 | 716.5 | -1.0 | I09-I01 | 25.5 | 27.0 | -1.5 | | I01 | 690.0 | 689.5 | 0.5 | I01-I05 | 18.0 | 16.5 | 1.5 | 光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 0 ...