有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.01%至 9878 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.01%至 79780 | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势，且亏损幅度较大。宏观方面，昨日特朗普在接受媒 | | | | 体采访时表示，无需延长即将到期的关税期限，将在未来几天内向包括日本在内的数 | | | | 百个国家发送信函，单方面告知各国对美出口商品的关税税率，而非继续进行贸易谈 | | | | 判。这或意味着 7 月关税期限到期前后风险事件可能再现。另外，昨日特朗普发文再 | | | | 次批评美联储主席鲍威尔和整个美联储理事会不降息的作为。国内方面，国家统计局 | | | 铜 | 公布数据显示，6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，制造业景气 | | | | 水平继续改善。库存方面，LME 库存下降 650 吨至 90625 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 | | | | 1749 吨至 191607 吨； ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation phase. The demand for rebar is gently declining, but the inventory has not accumulated during the off - season due to the obvious production transfer of steel mills. The export of billets is still strong, and steel mills have little pressure for now [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show a narrow - range oscillation. The supply of iron ore has slightly decreased, while the demand has increased, and the inventory has changed in different directions, resulting in a situation where long and short factors are intertwined [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate in an oscillatory manner. The supply of coking coal is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively stable. For coke, the cost may weaken, but the demand has certain support [1]. - The manganese silicon market is likely to oscillate at a low level. The production has increased, the demand has marginally improved, and the cost has slightly increased [1]. - The silicon iron market is expected to have a range - bound oscillation. The supply and demand are both at a low level, and the price driving force is limited [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 2997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.07%) with a decrease of 18,600 hands in positions. The spot price was basically stable, and the transaction volume slightly increased. The national building materials inventory increased slightly. It is expected to remain in low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures contract i2509 closed at 715.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (0.14%) with a decrease of 11,000 hands in positions. The port spot price slightly decreased. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, while the iron - making production increased. It is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2509 closed at 825 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton (2.65%) with a decrease of 16,440 hands in positions. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively stable. It is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2509 closed at 1404 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton (1.23%) with a decrease of 2315 hands in positions. The cost pressure of coke enterprises has increased, and the demand has certain support. It is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5642 yuan/ton, down 0.74% with a decrease of 5151 hands in positions. The production has increased, the demand has marginally improved, and the cost has slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5344 yuan/ton, down 0.89% with a decrease of 861 hands in positions. The supply and demand are both at a low level, and the price driving force is limited. It is expected to have a range - bound oscillation [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For example, the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar is - 18.0, with a change of - 8.0; the 9 - 1 month spread of iron ore is 25.5, with a change of - 1.5 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 133.0, with a change of 48.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore is 33.3, with a change of 2.1 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai spot price of rebar is 3130.0, with a change of 50.0; the PB powder spot price of iron ore is 708.0, with a change of 1.0 [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The rebar disk profit is 71.4, with a change of 12.4; the long - process profit is 157.2, with a change of 50.0; the short - process profit is - 112.6, with a change of 20.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The basis of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 is shown in the charts, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, etc. [19][20]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The inter - period contract spreads of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 are presented in the charts, such as the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar [27][33]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The inter - variety contract spreads of main contracts, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc., from 2020 to 2025 are shown in the charts [41][42]. - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: The profits of the main contract of rebar, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, from 2020 to 2025 are presented in the charts [46][49]. 4. Black Research Team Members - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [52]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周一，玉米 9 月期价震荡收十字星，价格延续盘整表现。当日，玉米 7 月持仓下 | 震荡 | | | 降，资金向 9 月合约移仓较为有限，期价连续三日呈现震荡表现。现货市场方面， | | | | 周末玉米报价稳中偏强运行。目前进口玉米拍卖消息已出，从周末市场表现来看 | | | | 并未受到明显影响，东北部分深加工玉米收购价格继续上调，产区玉米报价仍维 | | | | 持在相对高位。周末华北地区玉米到货量维持低位，加上近期阴雨天气较多，部 | | | | 分深加工企业玉米价格继续上行，普遍上调 10-20 元/吨。基层余粮不断减少， | | | | 贸易商挺价意愿较强。周末销区市场玉米价格坚挺运行。港口贸易商报价坚挺， | | | | 下游提货速度一般，港口库存仍有压力。饲料企业对玉米高价接受度有限，小部 | | | | 分企业刚需采购玉米，多数使用小麦替代一部分玉米。技术上，玉米 9 月合约关 | | | | 注 2420 前高压力的价格表现，进口拍卖预期兑现，期 ...

1. Index Trends - On June 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.59% to close at 3,444.43 points, with a trading volume of 567.137 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83% to close at 10,465.12 points, with a trading volume of 919.72 billion yuan. [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.26% with a trading volume of 336.221 billion yuan. It opened at 6,297.08, closed at 6,356.18, with a high of 6,358.03 and a low of 6,292.51. [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.88% with a trading volume of 226.517 billion yuan. It opened at 5,877.67, closed at 5,915.39, with a high of 5,918.31 and a low of 5,872.23. [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.16% with a trading volume of 76.464 billion yuan. It opened at 2,702.12, closed at 2,711.99, with a high of 2,716.3 and a low of 2,695.42. [1] 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 79.24 points from the previous close. Sectors such as electronics, national defense and military industry, and computer significantly pulled the index up. [2] - The CSI 500 rose 51.66 points from the previous close. Sectors such as national defense and military industry, electronics, and media significantly pulled the index up. [2] - The SSE 300 rose 14.32 points from the previous close. Sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and national defense and military industry significantly pulled the index up. [2] - The SSE 50 rose 4.42 points from the previous close. Sectors such as electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and national defense and military industry significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as non - ferrous metals and banks pulled the index down. [2] 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 51.59, IM01 of - 114.33, IM02 of - 181.73, and IM03 of - 356.0. [12] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 38.42, IC01 of - 80.23, IC02 of - 127.59, and IC03 of - 247.16. [12] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 25.11, IF01 of - 37.67, IF02 of - 44.55, and IF03 of - 75.15. [12] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 20.28, IH01 of - 23.86, IH02 of - 24.19, and IH03 of - 23.5. [12] 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs were presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00. For example, at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, IM00 - 02 was - 158.791, etc. [21] - For IC contracts, similar roll - over point differences and annualized costs were provided at different time intervals. For instance, at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, IC00 - 02 was - 90.0318, etc. [23] - For IF contracts, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, IF00 - 02 was - 13.4098, etc., with roll - over point differences and annualized costs tracked throughout the day. [25] - For IH contracts, data such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889, etc., were given for roll - over point differences and annualized costs. [27]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉下降 1.85%，报收 68.04 美分/磅，CF509 收平，报收 13740 元/吨， | 震荡 | | | 主力合约持仓环比下降 13740 手至 57.49 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15117 元/ | | | | 吨，较前一日上涨 64 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15154 元/吨，较前一 | | | | 日上涨 45 元/吨。国际市场方面，美棉实播面积报告公布，预计 2025 年美国棉花 | | | | 种植面积 1012 万英亩，高于此前市场预期，环比调增 4.3%，丰产预期下，美棉价 | | | | 格承压下行。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉冲高回落，主力合约持仓环比开始下降。 | | | | 基本面来看，新年度国内棉花丰产预期较强，天气实际扰动有限。当前下游纺织 | | | | 企业开机仍在小幅下降，略低于往年同期，产成品库存逐渐累积，下游需求支撑 | | | | 有限。综合来看，基本面对棉价支撑 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | | 分 项 | | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/30 | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 7830 | 8115 | 285 | | | | 近月 | 7810 | 8125 | 315 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8100 | 8200 | 100 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 8150 | 8200 | 50 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 7950 | 8100 | 150 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 8200 | 8200 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8100 | 8100 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 8600 | 8650 | 50 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华东) | 8300 | 8450 | 150 | | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The A-share market continued to rise, with the Wind All A index up 0.89% and a trading volume of 1.22 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 1.26%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.88%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.16%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.37%. The defense and military industry led the gains, and the TMT sector strengthened. The Fed Chairman's remarks and the dot plot have led the market to price in interest rate cuts in advance, and the Nasdaq is approaching its all-time high. The A-share market has also been boosted and has risen for two consecutive days, but its valuation is above the historical average, making it difficult to continue a sharp upward trend. The stablecoin concept has been popular recently, but it is still a long way from replacing the US dollar as a trading medium. The domestic fundamentals show that the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, still in the contraction range; the PPI in May was -3.3% year-on-year, down from April; and the new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, 330 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Under the background of debt reduction, credit contraction and insufficient demand are still the main contradictions, and the index is difficult to break through the center and rise significantly. On the other hand, the corporate profitability in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared with 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A-share index will not fall significantly in the short term. It is expected that the index will continue to fluctuate in the future [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH contract rose 9.0 points (0.34%), the IF contract rose 9.2 points (0.24%), the IC contract rose 36.0 points (0.62%), and the IM contract rose 37.8 points (0.62%) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 index rose 4.4 points (0.16%), the SSE 300 index rose 14.3 points (0.37%), the CSI 500 index rose 51.7 points (0.88%), and the CSI 1000 index rose 79.2 points (1.26%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS contract fell 0.044 points (-0.04%), the TF contract fell 0.105 points (-0.10%), the T contract fell 0.15 points (-0.14%), and the TL contract remained unchanged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds increased by 1.32, 0.72, 0.81, and 1.5 basis points respectively [3]. 2. Market News - On June 30, the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data showing that the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all rebounded in June, reaching 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively. The manufacturing production and demand indexes were in the expansion range, and the price index rebounded; the construction industry in the non-manufacturing business activity expanded faster [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures and the yields of treasury bond cash [13][14][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][22][24][25].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价震荡运行，其中WTI 8月合约收盘下跌0.41美元至65.11 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.63%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.16 美元至 67.61 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.24%。SC2508 以 497.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.5 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.30%。四位 OPEC+代表透露该联盟计划 8 月增产 | | | | 41.1 万桶/日，此前 5 月、6 月和 7 月已实施同等规模的增产。 | | | | OPEC+将于 7 月 6 日召开会议，这将是该组织自 4 月开始逐步退 | | | | 出减产以来的第五次月度增产。市场再度计价欧佩克增产预期， | | | 原油 | 但整体仍较为温和。油价已回落至 6 月 13 日以色列首次袭击伊朗 | 震荡 | | | 之前的水平附近，市场焦点重新转向供需平衡。除了 OPEC+可能 | | | | 增产，这可能会加剧今年晚些时候供过于求 ...

2025 年下半年硅 策略报告 2025 年 6 月 3 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1、供给：新疆产能继续释放，内蒙及甘肃新增产能填补了西南减产缺口，结构性过剩矛盾突出。据百川，上半年国内工业硅总产量达 | | | 185.6万吨，环比增长21.5%，同比下滑14.9%；主产地占比为新疆53.2%、内蒙12.3%、甘肃10.4%、云南5 %、四川4.5%；上半年开炉量下 | | | 滑53台至215台，开炉率下滑8.3%至27.2%。 | | | 2、需求：光伏抢装带领晶硅需求集中前置，但降库存导致向上传导不佳，有机硅抢出口成为主增量。上半年国内工业硅消费测算量92.9 | | | 万吨，同比下滑34.9%。其中DMC产量102.4万吨，同比增长27.4%，测算工业硅用量约53.2万吨；多晶硅产量57.5万吨，同比下滑45.3%， | | | 测算工业硅用量约74.7万吨；1-5月铝合金产量740.5万吨，同比增长16.7%，预计上半年铝合金产量88 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 2025/26 season is expected to have a relatively loose supply - demand pattern. Although the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow compared to the previous year, the upward movement of cotton prices is difficult due to factors such as the expected high - yield in some major producing countries, geopolitical conflicts, and the expected slowdown of the global economy [3][8]. - In the international market, the center of the ICE US cotton futures price in the 2025/26 season is expected to move slightly higher than in the first half of the year, but the increase is limited, and it will generally operate within a range. Attention should be paid to macro and weather disturbances [8]. - In the domestic market, the bottom of the cotton price may have emerged, but the rebound of the cotton price is under pressure due to the high - yield expectation, and the upward space is relatively limited. The center of the Zhengzhou cotton futures price in the second half of the year may move slightly higher, but the space is expected to be limited [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global**: The USDA June report predicts that the global cotton output in the 2025/26 season will be 25.472 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 639,000 tons. However, the market believes that the USDA underestimates the global cotton output, and the actual output decline may be lower [3][38]. - **US**: The planting area of US cotton this year has decreased by about 10 - 15% year - on - year. As of June 17, the area of US cotton affected by D1 - D4 level drought accounted for 3%, a week - on - week decrease of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6 percentage points. The good and excellent rate of US cotton is 48%, lower than the same period last year but higher than the performance during the harvest period last year. It is expected that the final output of US cotton this year will be basically the same as last year [3]. - **China**: Most of the new domestic cotton is in the budding and flowering stages, and the weather conditions are relatively suitable. It is a market consensus that the planting area has increased year - on - year, and the probability of a high - yield this year is relatively large [3]. 3.2 Demand - **Global**: The USDA June report predicts that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.639 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 263,000 tons. However, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and the expected slowdown of the global economic growth, the future uncertainty is still relatively large [4]. - **China**: From January to May, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear, and textiles in China were 613.84 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. The cumulative retail sales of clothing products from January to May were 443.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The year - on - year increase in retail sales of textile and clothing products was lower than that of total social retail sales. As of the week of June 20, the comprehensive load of yarn was 53.88%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the load of pure cotton yarn mills was 52.66%, a year - on - year increase of 5.56 percentage points; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 49.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the load of pure cotton grey cloth was 45.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74 percentage points [4]. 3.3 Import and Export - **US Cotton Exports**: As of June 13, the total signing volume of US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season was 2.731 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 188,000 tons. The signing volume of exports to China was 169,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.015 million tons. The proportion of US cotton exports to China was only about 6%, reaching a historical low [5]. - **China's Imports**: In May, China's cotton imports were 40,000 tons, a new low in recent years, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. In May, the import volume of cotton yarn was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [5]. - **China's Exports**: In May 2025, the monthly export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 12.631 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. From January to May, the cumulative export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 58.476 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 13.578 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The cumulative export from January to April was 58.195 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [5]. 3.4 Inventory - **China**: As of the end of June, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.1269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 331,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons; the total was 4.057 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 342,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 300,000 tons. As of the week of June 20, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.14 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.88 days; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 32.98 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.54 days. As of the week of June 21, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 27.38 days, a year - on - year increase of 5.2 days; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 35.22 days, a year - on - year decrease of 10.88 days. As of the week of June 20, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 5.94 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.34 days; the inventory of pure cotton grey cloth was 33.96 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.18 days [6]. 3.5 Price - The spot price of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn has fallen more than the futures price of cotton yarn. On June 27, 2025, the closing price of cotton yarn was 20,105 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 390 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 1.90%. The price of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1,920 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 8.61% [29][31]. - The basis of cotton yarn has fluctuated and declined. On June 27, 2025, the basis of cotton yarn was 275 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1,530 yuan/ton [33][35].