Group 1: Research Views - The performance of Chinese assets has been strong since June, with both stocks and bonds rising, pricing in possible policy changes in June. The views on stock index futures and treasury bond futures are both "volatile" [1] - For stock index futures, there are three main factors affecting the market: Sino-US communication may help resolve trade disputes; long - term consumption stimulus policies are attracting attention; and the upcoming Lujiazui Forum may bring news on capital market reform. The PPI data shows low inflation, and the market style may still favor consumption and technology. In Q1, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, net profit has increased by about 4% year - on - year, but ROE is still at the bottoming stage [1] - For treasury bond futures, on June 18, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.09%, the 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. After the cross - month, the liquidity has eased marginally. In June, the bond market is unlikely to have a trending market and shows a sideways volatile pattern [1] Group 2: Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures on June 18, IH was at 2,677.4 (down 0.13% from the previous day), IF was at 3,872.2 (up 0.09%), IC was at 5,738.0 (down 0.18%), and IM was at 6,124.2 (down 0.09%) [2] - For stock indices on June 18, the Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,679.9 (down 0.15% from the previous day), the CSI 300 was at 3,875.0 (up 0.12%), the CSI 500 was at 5,745.9 (down 0.09%), and the CSI 1000 was at 6,135.4 (down 0.10%) [2] - For treasury bond futures on June 18, TS was at 102.54 (unchanged), TF was at 106.28 (down 0.02%), T was at 109.14 (down 0.02%), and TL was at 120.90 (up 0.07%) [2] Group 3: Market News - At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the governor of the People's Bank of China announced eight major financial policies, including setting up an inter - bank market transaction reporting library, a digital RMB international operation center, and a personal credit investigation agency; carrying out a comprehensive reform pilot of offshore trade financial services in the Lingang New Area of Shanghai; developing free - trade offshore bonds; optimizing and upgrading the functions of free - trade accounts; innovating structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai; and promoting RMB foreign exchange futures trading [4][5] Group 4: Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of corresponding contracts [6][7][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts include the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [12][13][17] - **Exchange Rates**: Charts show the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - yen exchange rate [19][20][24]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱，下跌 0.26%至 9670 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.04%至 78560 | | | | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口维系较大亏损。宏观方面，美国 5 月工业整体产出意外环比下 | | | | | | | 降了 0.2%，低于市场预期的持平，4 月小幅上修为上升 0.1%；美国 5 月零售销售环比 | | | | | | | -0.9%，低于预期-0.6%和前值-0.1%。中东局势成为短期的焦点，有媒体称特朗普表 | | | | | | | 示已完全控制伊朗上空，美方的耐心在耗尽，并在权衡美国是否应进一步介入以伊冲 | | | | | | | 突，考虑包括打击伊朗在内的一系列选项；特朗普越来越有意动用美国军事资产空袭 | | | | | | | 伊朗核设施，但若伊朗作出重大让步，他仍对外交解决持开放态度。结合此前各国撤 | | | | | | 铜 | 侨行为，事态进展 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约涨 0.74%至 59869 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价跌 50 元/ 吨至 60450 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价跌 50 元/吨至 58850 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 280 元/吨至 59670 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）跌 280 元/吨至 64820 元/吨。仓单方面，昨 日仓单库存减少 330 吨至 31713 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加，6 月产量供应环比增速明显。需求端，碳酸锂实际消耗量环比小幅增 加。库存端，周度库存重回增加，下游小幅减少，上游和中间环节有所增加。综合来看，需要考虑 的是，一方面，当前矿山端并未有新的停减产动作，同时，从国内排产来看，6 月过剩格局将进一 步扩大；另一方面，锂矿的价格表现相对滞后，如果锂盐价格快速走强，生产和套保动力将再次显 现，对价格进一步产生压力。 3. 当前价格水平基本处在阶段性底部区间，多空博弈加剧，价格可能会受到资金扰 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2981 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 9 元/吨，跌幅为 0.3%，持仓减少 2.37 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3070 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.25 | | | | 万吨。1-5 月份房地产投资同比降幅扩大，基建、制造业同比增幅收窄，国内钢材需求面临较大的回落压 | | | | 力。目前螺纹钢现实处于供需双弱局面，市场对于后期供需预期依然较为悲观。预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位 | | | | 整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 699 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌 5.5 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 元/吨，跌幅为 0.8%，成交 32 万手，减仓 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格继续走高，主力09合约收盘价1774元/吨，日内涨幅3.99%。现货 | 看涨 | | | 市场继续明显反弹，主流地区市场价格再度上涨10~50元/吨不等，目前山东、河南 | | | | 地区市场价格分别为1810元/吨、1790元/吨，日环比分别上涨50元/吨、40元/吨。基 | | | | 本面来看，尿素供应水平依旧高位波动，行业日产量昨日20.31万吨，日环比下降0. | | | | 02万吨。需求端在期、现市场情绪持续回暖带动下，现货成交氛围仍积极，昨日主 | | | | 流地区现货产销率均维持在100%以上，个别地区超200%。后续在国内追肥需求、出 | | | | 口有序推进的带动下，现货高成交短期或依旧维持。中东地缘政治对全球尿素供需 | | | | 及价格扰动仍存，但随着时间推移市场情绪或逐步回归理性。整体来看，尿素期货 | | | | 市场情绪短期依旧较为积极，主力期价也仍有继续上 可能。但尿素 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 点评 17 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 34010 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.07%，持 仓减仓 7834 手至 43443 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 1490 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 7360 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.1%，持仓减仓 4470 手至 31.9 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升 水收至 215 元/吨。随着硅煤电极等成本重心下调，西南电价优惠落地， 复产陆续推进，工业硅结束超跌修复、重归下行节奏。多晶硅增减产并 行，大部分厂家大规模减产，仍有西南少量厂家有增产计划。拉晶端即用 即采且倾向于低品混包硅料，压价态度坚决。晶硅库存周转延至 1 个半 月，降库重压下持续降价态势难以避免，现货升水稳步收敛。因企业大量 交仓盘面多头挤仓逻辑结束，反弹动力不再，延续弱势震荡。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 周二，生猪 9 月小阳线收盘，猪价区间上移。河南猪价上涨，目前河南生猪市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 出栏均价为 14.27 元/公斤，较上周五涨 0.26 元/公斤。当地大场 115-130 公斤良 种猪主流出栏价格 14.20-14.50 元/公斤；中小场 120-130 公斤良种主流出栏价格 | | | 生猪 | 14.00 元/公斤左右，高价 14.20 元/公斤，个别低价 13.80 元/公斤；150-160 公斤 | 上涨 | | | 大猪出栏价格 14.20 元/公斤。屠宰企业中小场良种标猪主流收购价格 14.00 元/ | | | | 公斤左右，均重 115-125 公斤。技术上，现货猪价企稳对生猪期价提供支撑，生 | | | | 猪 9 月合约在玉米、豆粕等成本上行的预期下，价格区间抬升，多头思路延续。 | | 二、市场信息 农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米减仓 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.56%，报收 67.64 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 0.08%，报收 13525 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 3985 手至 53.35 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14762 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 47 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14862 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 42 元/吨。国际市场方面，地缘冲突加剧，原油价格持续上涨。"美联储 | | | | 传声筒"会前放声称，"若非关税，美联储本周就会降息"，但目前预计本周会议 | | | | 美联储官员仍将采取观望状态。美元指数走强，美棉价格下行。国内市场方面，原 | | | | 油价格上行对郑棉有一定影响。国内陈棉库存处于近年来同期偏低水平，但短期也 | | | | 无库存短缺担忧，新棉丰产预期较强。下游需求表现相对偏弱，纺织企业开机负荷 | | | | 环比小幅下降，库存水平在持续累积， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

Index Trends - On June 17th, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.04%, closing at 3387.4 points with a trading volume of 458.038 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of -0.12%, closing at 10151.43 points with a trading volume of 749.175 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of -0.1%, with a trading volume of 260.874 billion yuan, an opening price of 6153.15, a closing price of 6141.47, a daily high of 6171.17, and a daily low of 6120.57 [1] - The CSI 500 Index had a change of -0.29%, with a trading volume of 160.122 billion yuan, an opening price of 5772.3, a closing price of 5750.91, a daily high of 5776.63, and a daily low of 5734.83 [1] - The SSE 50 Index had a change of -0.04%, with a trading volume of 63.517 billion yuan, an opening price of 2685.39, a closing price of 2683.95, a daily high of 2688.61, and a daily low of 2672.68 [1] Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose -5.99 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as power equipment, transportation, and non - bank finance significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like non - ferrous metals, media, and pharmaceuticals pulled it down [3] - The CSI 500 rose -16.9 points compared to the previous closing price. The computer sector significantly pulled the index up, while electronics, media, and pharmaceuticals pulled it down [3] - The SSE 300 rose -3.42 points compared to the previous closing price. Utilities, coal, and household appliances significantly pulled the index up, while electronics, banking, and pharmaceuticals pulled it down [3] - The SSE 50 rose -1.06 points compared to the previous closing price. Food and beverage, coal, and utilities significantly pulled the index up, while automotive, electronics, and pharmaceuticals pulled it down [3] Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM futures, IM00 had an average daily basis of -19.9, IM01 of -112.91, IM02 of -275.04, and IM03 of -454.42 [13] - For IC futures, IC00 had an average daily basis of -10.22, IC01 of -80.18, IC02 of -186.51, and IC03 of -311.44 [13] - For IF futures, IF00 had an average daily basis of -5.49, IF01 of -46.68, IF02 of -74.45, and IF03 of -105.66 [13] - For IH futures, IH00 had an average daily basis of -5.85, IH01 of -42.29, IH02 of -43.99, and IH03 of -46.18 [13] Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IC futures, data shows point differences and annualized costs at different time intervals, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was -26.1467, IC00 - 02 was -90.0318, etc. [25] - For IF futures, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was -5.99267, IF00 - 02 was -13.4098, etc. [25] - For IH futures, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was -1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889, etc. [29] - For IM futures, at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was -53.1193, IM00 - 02 was -158.791, etc. [28]