Research Views - The A-share market fluctuated and declined, with the Wind All A index down 0.1% and a trading volume of 1.24 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices also declined. The market is affected by the Israel-Iran conflict and potential policy changes in June [1]. - The performance of Chinese assets has been strong since June, with both stocks and bonds rising. Factors include the resumption of Sino-US communication, potential changes in long-term consumption stimulus policies, and the upcoming Lujiazui Forum [1]. - The recent PPI data shows that China's inflation level remains low, and the second-quarter fundamentals may turn into a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation". The consumer and technology sectors may still be dominant in the market style [1]. - In terms of corporate earnings, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, but it is still lower than the policy interest rate. The net profit has increased by about 4% year-on-year, but the ROE is still in the stage of bottoming out [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts up 0.24%, 0.14%, 0.15%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted 1973 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with the interest rate remaining stable at 1.4%. The net withdrawal of funds was 1833 billion yuan [1][2]. - The bond market strengthened slightly due to the loosening of the capital market, but the economy shows strong resilience under the influence of the "rush to export" effect and stable growth policies. The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Contract | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,680.8 | 2,678.4 | 2.4 | 0.09% | | IF | 3,868.6 | 3,869.8 | -1.2 | -0.03% | | IC | 5,748.4 | 5,756.2 | -7.8 | -0.14% | | IM | 6,130.0 | 6,127.4 | 2.6 | 0.04% | Stock Indices | Index | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,684.0 | 2,685.0 | -1.1 | -0.04% | | CSI 300 | 3,870.4 | 3,873.8 | -3.4 | -0.09% | | CSI 500 | 5,750.9 | 5,767.8 | -16.9 | -0.29% | | CSI 1000 | 6,141.5 | 6,147.5 | -6.0 | -0.10% | Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.54 | 102.47 | 0.074 | 0.07% | | TF | 106.30 | 106.15 | 0.155 | 0.15% | | T | 109.16 | 109.02 | 0.145 | 0.13% | | TL | 120.82 | 120.52 | 0.3 | 0.25% | Market News - The Bank of Japan will conduct a mid-term review of its bond purchase program in June next year and will slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases due to concerns about market volatility [5]. - The Bank of Japan believes that inflation expectations are not yet stable and that there are two-way risks to prices. Trade policy is highly uncertain, and tariff issues may affect next year's spring wage negotiations [6]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of these contracts [8][9][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [15][17][19]. Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates, currency indices, and cross - currency exchange rates [22][23][26].

Research Views Corn - Monday saw corn reducing positions and adjusting, with the main funds of the July contract shifting to the September contract, which became the main contract. The futures price fluctuated around the 2400 yuan mark. The wheat price increase supported corn in the spot market. Last week, Northeast corn prices were mainly strong, and traders were reluctant to sell at lower prices. The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast also increased. Over the weekend, North China corn prices were generally stable with a slight upward trend. Some Shandong deep - processing enterprises raised corn prices by 10 yuan/ton. The corn price in the sales area was stable. The high corn price limited downstream acceptance, and wheat substitution restricted corn's increase. Technically, corn's recent positions have been decreasing. After the long - position holders take profits, pay attention to whether the September price can break through 2400 yuan. Participate in short - term long positions with a light position. The view is "oscillation" [1]. Soybean Meal - On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell from their highs. Although the rise of US soybean oil was positive for soybean prices, rainfall in the production area was beneficial for crop growth, suppressing price increases. The crop report showed that the US soybean harvest was near the end, and the crops were growing well. Weak demand and sufficient global supply, along with abundant global wheat supply, dragged down soybean prices. In China, the sharp rise of edible oils made protein meals relatively weak, and capital adjustment of the oil - meal ratio pressured protein meals. Last week, domestic oil mills' soybean inventories decreased, soybean meal inventories increased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. The weekly soybean crushing exceeded 2.2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 27,500 tons, with the inventory increase slowing down, indicating good terminal demand. Hold the 91 and 15 positive spreads of soybean meal and adopt a unilateral long - position strategy. The view is "oscillation and upward" [1]. Edible Oils - On Monday, BMD palm oil rose for the third consecutive day, following the rise of US soybean oil. The significant increase in the biodiesel blending target directly benefited soybean oil prices. High - frequency data showed that from June 1 - 15, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 14.3% - 26.3% month - on - month, while production decreased by 4% month - on - month. In China, edible oils followed the upward trend, with palm oil leading the rise, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having a weaker increase. Last week, the inventory of the three major edible oils increased by 2.87% month - on - month. Domestic edible oil supply was sufficient. Pay attention to US biodiesel policies and crude oil. Participate in short - term trading, and buy September and sell January for soybean oil and palm oil. The view is "oscillation and upward" [1]. Eggs - On Monday, the main 2508 contract of egg futures strengthened after opening and then declined slightly at the end of the session, closing up 0.73% at 3582 yuan/500 kilograms. The 2509 contract adjusted narrowly, closing up 0.47%. The national egg price increased by 0.08 yuan/jin. In the short term, most egg prices in the production area increased, and in the sales area, procurement costs mostly increased. Terminal consumption improved, and traders generally followed the market. After the previous low egg prices, there was a slight rebound in the production area. However, considering the increasing supply before August and the adverse effects of the rainy season, the spot egg price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in farmers' culling willingness and feed raw material prices. The view is "oscillation" [1][2]. Live Pigs - On Monday, the pig price of the July contract increased, and the September contract was flat, with the price range moving up. The pig price in Henan increased, with the average slaughter price reaching 14.27 yuan/kg. The spot pig price stability supported the futures price. With the expected increase in the cost of corn and soybean meal, the price range of the September contract of live pigs moved up. Adopt a long - position strategy. The view is "upward" [2]. Market Information - In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [3]. - China's macro - policies have effectively boosted consumption, production, and transformation and upgrading. The policy reserve is sufficient and can be adjusted according to the situation to support economic stability [3]. - Recently, imported soybeans have been arriving at ports intensively. As of the week ending June 13, the soybean crushing volume of domestic main oil mills was 2.26 million tons, up 10,000 tons week - on - week, 350,000 tons month - on - month, and 350,000 tons year - on - year. It is expected that the oil mills' operating rate will continue to rise, and the soybean crushing volume will be about 2.45 million tons this week [3]. - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 15 were estimated to be 513,213 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - There are spread charts for contracts such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, eggs 9 - 1, and live pigs 9 - 1 [5][6][8][9][13]. Contract Basis - There are basis charts for contracts such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][15][19][20][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience and many honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0001262, and her email is wangn@ebfcn.com.cn [28]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience and many honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013637, and her email is houxl@ebfcn.com.cn [28]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has relevant experience and honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013544, and her email is konghl@ebfcn.com.cn [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper trended strongly with a 0.49% increase to $9,695/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.45% to 78,450 yuan/ton. The market is more concerned about the Israel-Iran conflict. In China, May economic data was mixed. LME copper inventory decreased by 7,150 tons, Comex increased by 1,193 tons, and domestic social inventory rose by 0.29 million tons. With the off - season, downstream demand is cautious. The conflict may increase concerns about demand. Considering LME's de - stocking and potential exports, a short - term oscillatory pattern is expected, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,852 yuan/ton (0.18% increase), while Shanghai aluminum trended weakly, with AL2507 at 20,385 yuan/ton (0.02% decrease). Aluminum alloy trended strongly. Domestic alumina plants are resuming production, and the demand structure of electrolytic aluminum is further differentiated. The inventory of rods and ingots shows different trends, and the high - premium pattern of spot is hard to sustain. Pay attention to the convergence opportunity of the spread between AD and AL [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.3% to $15,065/ton, and SHFE nickel dropped 0.48% to 119,100 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 126 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 21,041 tons. Nickel ore prices remained strong, and stainless steel production was cut in China and Indonesia, but inventory is still accumulating. In the new energy sector, prices are stable, and there is no significant new demand in June. In the short - term, focus on nickel ore premium and primary nickel inventory, and the medium - term fundamentals may be bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On June 16, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,610 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan from June 13. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 7,150 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 1,898 tons. The active contract's import loss widened by 100 yuan [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead on June 16 was 16,840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,500 tons, and the active contract's import loss increased by 30 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: On June 16, the Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased, and the spot premium changed from - 210 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,025 tons, and alumina social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On June 16, the price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 875 yuan/ton. LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 5,412 tons, and the active contract's import loss increased by 360 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price on June 16 was 21,800 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. LME S3 remained unchanged. The domestic spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The active contract's import loss changed from - 614 yuan to 0 yuan [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price on June 16 was 264,530 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. LME S3 decreased by 2.1%. The active contract's import loss changed from - 17,631 yuan to 0 yuan [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research, both providing in - depth reports and policy interpretations [49][50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On June 16, polysilicon fluctuated with a bullish bias. The main contract 2507 closed at 34,320 yuan/ton, up 1.93% intraday, and the open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 61,698 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material dropped to 35,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon material also dropped to 35,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 1,180 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also fluctuated with a bullish bias. The main contract 2509 closed at 7,370 yuan/ton, up 0.41% intraday, and the open interest decreased by 23,640 lots to 323,000 lots. Baichuan's reference price for industrial silicon spot remained stable at 8,636 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 245 yuan/ton. - As the cost centers of silicon coal and electrodes have declined and electricity price discounts in the southwest have been implemented, the resumption of production is progressing. Industrial silicon has ended its oversold correction and returned to a downward trend. For polysilicon, there are both production increases and decreases. Most manufacturers have significantly reduced production, while a small number of manufacturers in the southwest still have production increase plans. The crystal pulling end adopts a just-in-time procurement strategy and prefers low-quality mixed-pack silicon materials, with a firm attitude towards price reduction. The inventory turnover of crystalline silicon has extended to one and a half months. Under the heavy pressure of inventory reduction, the continuous price reduction trend is inevitable, and the spot premium is steadily converging. Due to a large number of enterprises delivering to the warehouse, the logic of long squeeze on the futures market has ended, and there is no longer any impetus for a rebound, so it continues to fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research View - Polysilicon fluctuated with a bullish bias while industrial silicon also showed a similar trend on June 16. The cost decline and production resumption in industrial silicon have led to a return to the downward trend, and polysilicon is facing production adjustment and inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 115 yuan/ton to 7,280 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 23,640 lots to 323,000 lots. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon spot remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 40 yuan to 245 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1,097 to 56,823, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 428,800 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 625 yuan/ton to 34,320 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 61,698 lots. The prices of various grades of polysilicon spot remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 35,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 625 yuan to 1,180 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,600, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 26.6 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of other organic silicon products were mostly stable, except that the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of industrial silicon of different grades, brand spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [11][15][17]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, cost and profit of DMC, and cost and profit of polysilicon [26][28][31]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in the field of non-ferrous metals research and have made significant contributions to the industry [36][37].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Sideways [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views - **Urea**: On Monday, the urea futures price continued to rise, with the main 09 contract closing at 1723 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.48%. The spot market also rebounded. From a fundamental perspective, the urea supply remains at a high level, but the daily output decreased by 0.41 tons to 20.33 tons. Demand has improved due to the warming market sentiment, with the spot sales rate in the mainstream areas rising to over 100%. International market disturbances, such as production and operation disruptions in Russia, Egypt, and Iran, and high Indian tender prices, have boosted the domestic market. However, the upside of the futures price is limited, and follow - up attention should be paid to demand, raw material prices, international situations, and market sentiment [1]. - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the soda ash futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main 09 contract closing at 1174 yuan/ton, a 0.86% increase. The spot market was weak, with prices in some regions dropping by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The supply of soda ash remains high, with the industry's operating rate slightly increasing to 87.73%. Demand is still weak, and there is no new driving force in the supply - demand situation. The futures market is driven by related commodities, but there is no trend - upward driver. It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range sideways thinking at the bottom [1]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the glass futures price fluctuated widely, with the main 09 contract closing at 980 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.1%. The spot market continued to weaken. The actual supply of glass increased slightly, and the daily melting volume was 15.66 tons. Demand has not improved significantly, with the number of downstream deep - processing orders decreasing by 5% compared to the end of May and 5.48% year - on - year. The glass market has no turning - point driver, and the price will be under long - term pressure due to weak terminal demand [1]. 3. Market Information Summary Urea - On June 16, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 5922, a decrease of 40 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4]. - On June 16, the daily output of the urea industry was 20.33 tons, a decrease of 0.41 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.43 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 88.41%, a 5.76 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year [4]. - On June 16, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions showed an upward trend, with Shandong at 1760 yuan/ton (+50), Henan at 1750 yuan/ton (+30), etc [4]. Soda Ash and Glass - On June 16, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 6565, a decrease of 77 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 476; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 877, unchanged from the previous trading day [6]. - On June 16, the spot prices of soda ash in some regions decreased, with the light - alkali price in Central China dropping by 20 yuan/ton and the heavy - alkali price in South China dropping by 50 yuan/ton [6]. - On June 16, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 87.73%, up from 86.81% the previous working day [7]. - On June 16, the average price of the float glass market was 1189 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and the daily output was 15.66 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. 4. Chart Analysis The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, positions, price spreads, and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass futures, as well as the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [9][11][12][15][17][19][21] 5. Research Team The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different aspects of resource - product research and have rich experience and many honors [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market rose slightly. The May steel market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price rose. With supply decreasing and demand and inventory showing mixed trends, it is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose. Affected by supply, demand, and policy expectations, it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures will oscillate [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price rose. Due to environmental protection and demand factors, it is expected that the short - term coke futures will oscillate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened. Driven by short - term market sentiment, the price center may move up, but it should be treated as a rebound [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened. With limited fundamental improvement, the short - term price increase is driven by market sentiment and should be treated as a rebound [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2990 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.71%. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading volume increased. From January to May, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, with real estate investment down 10.7%, infrastructure investment up 5.6%, and manufacturing investment up 8.5%. In May, the production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel decreased or increased year - on - year, and the daily average production decreased month - on - month [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore i2509 contract was 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2%. Port spot prices rose. In May, pig iron production decreased year - on - year. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, and inventory increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 795.5 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 2.71%. Some coal mines stopped production, and the market procurement sentiment was weak. It is in the seasonal demand off - season [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1371 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan/ton or 1.59%. Environmental protection inspections were tightened, and coke enterprises' production enthusiasm declined. The blast furnace operating rate was stable, and the market had a downward expectation for future demand [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price rose by 2.35%. The real estate market had positive signals, but the fundamental support was weak, and it should be treated as a rebound [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price rose by 2.04%. The market sentiment improved, but the fundamental drive was limited, and it should be treated as a rebound [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: Data on the contract spreads of steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. - **Basis**: Data on the basis of various varieties are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices of various varieties in different regions and their month - on - month changes are provided [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on the profits and spreads of various varieties are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [27][29][31][34][36][37][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the inter - variety contract spreads of main contracts, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [42][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the main contract's coal - coke ratio, double - silicon spread, rebar's main contract's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With rich experience in the field of resource products [52]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. Good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | | 2025-06-16 2025-06-13 | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 59780 | 59940 | -160 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 60000 | 59980 | 20 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 624 | 629 | -5 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 695 | 695 | 0 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1225 | 1225 | 0 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 5660 | 5660 | 0 | | | ...

1. Index Trends - On June 16th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.35% to close at 3388.73 points, with a trading volume of 481.594 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41% to close at 10163.55 points, with a trading volume of 733.481 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.68% with a trading volume of 253.088 billion yuan, opening at 6089.96, closing at 6147.46, reaching a high of 6151.51 and a low of 6089.96 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 0.48% with a trading volume of 170.989 billion yuan, opening at 5725.0, closing at 5767.81, reaching a high of 5775.95 and a low of 5725.0 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.32% with a trading volume of 68.811 billion yuan, opening at 2666.82, closing at 2685.01, reaching a high of 2687.11 and a low of 2664.43 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose by 0.25% with a trading volume of 246.861 billion yuan, opening at 3853.62, closing at 3873.8, reaching a high of 3876.17 and a low of 3853.62 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 41.45 points from the previous close, with sectors such as computer, power equipment, and media significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 27.57 points from the previous close, with sectors such as media, electronics, and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 9.62 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - bank finance, and electronics significantly pulling the index up, while sectors such as automobiles, non - ferrous metals, and pharmaceutical and biological pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 8.58 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up, while non - ferrous metals pulled it down [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 13.01, IM01 of - 107.61, IM02 of - 269.2, and IM03 of - 449.07 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 5.28, IC01 of - 78.58, IC02 of - 185.61, and IC03 of - 311.9 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 2.83, IF01 of - 45.25, IF02 of - 73.74, and IF03 of - 104.93 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 5.71, IH01 of - 43.45, IH02 of - 48.57, and IH03 of - 50.32 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Multiple tables show the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points [23][25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, and OPEC's production and demand forecasts [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, with low - sulfur fuel oil supply remaining tight and high - sulfur fuel oil supported by demand [3]. - Asphalt is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints [3]. - Polyester products are expected to be volatile. PTA has a weak supply - demand situation and depends on cost changes; EG is under short - term price pressure [4]. - Rubber is expected to be weakly volatile, with supply increasing and demand weak, leading to a downward shift in the price center [6]. - Methanol is expected to have increased volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to control risks [8]. - Polyolefins are expected to have increased price volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short - term [8]. - PVC is expected to be volatile. In the short - term, it is weak under the influence of the off - season, but the long - term multi - empty situation is changing [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices opened high and closed low. WTI July contract closed down $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% decline; Brent August contract closed down $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. SC2507 closed at 530.4 yuan/barrel, down 10.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.94% decline. OPEC+ crude oil daily production in May averaged 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April. OPEC maintained its 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecasts [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.38% to 3,276 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2508 rose 1.28% to 3,874 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.77% to 3,667 yuan/ton. It is expected that refinery复产 will drive a slight increase in production next week, but overall supply remains low. The demand in the north is relatively stable, while that in the south is weak due to rain [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.33% at 4,766 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.92% at 4,374 yuan/ton. Some Iranian MEG plants have stopped production, and some domestic polyester plants plan to reduce production [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 35 yuan/ton to 13,910 yuan/ton. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade warehouses increased, while that in the bonded area decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,585 yuan/ton. The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO device operation rate is high, and the port inventory increase will slow down. The price has rebounded rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,130 - 7,250 yuan/ton. Due to the high uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, short - term price volatility will increase, and the long - term fundamentals have not improved significantly [8]. - **PVC**: On Monday, the PVC market in East, North, and South China had slight adjustments. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term performance is weak [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and related changes of various energy - chemical products on June 17, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [11] 3.3 Market News - Iran has requested Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey, and several European countries to urge President Trump to pressure Israel to achieve a cease - fire. Trump confirmed that Iran hopes to ease the conflict. OPEC expects the global economy to remain strong in the second half of this year and has lowered its forecast for the growth of oil supply from non - OPEC countries in 2026 [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and LPG from 2021 to 2025 [15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [73] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, achievements, and professional qualifications [79]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.31% to 68.05 cents per pound, and CF509 increased 0.48% to 13,530 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 4,887 lots to 537,500 lots. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price dropped by 70 yuan to 14,715 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B decreased by 22 yuan to 14,820 yuan per ton. With limited new news in the international market and no obvious improvement in downstream textile enterprises, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a range. Future focus includes international situation, domestic policies, and weather [2]. - **Sugar**: The Thai Sugar Cane and Sugar Board (OSCB) expects the 2025/26 sugar production to reach 10.05 million tons. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups remained stable. The raw sugar rebounded at a low level. The domestic sugar spot price is stable, and the key variable is the import situation. If the arrival of imported sugar is lower than expected, a low - level rebound may occur [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 7 - 9 spread was - 220, up 15; the main - contract basis was 1,290, down 57. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,715, down 70, and the national spot price was 14,820, down 22 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 7 - 9 spread was 70, down 20; the main - contract basis was 423, down 3. The Nanning spot price was 6,020, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,090, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 16, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10,725, down 28, with 308 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,715 yuan/ton, Henan 14,895 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,842 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,062 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 54.1, down 0.2; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 25.8, up 0.3; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.5, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.9, up 0.2 [4]. - **Sugar**: On June 16, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged at 6,020 yuan/ton and 6,090 yuan/ton respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 28,586, down 150, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts for cotton and sugar, such as the closing price, basis, spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of cotton and sugar contracts over different time periods, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][15]. 3.4 Research Team - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Resource products research director at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry. Has won many awards in futures analysis [20]. - **Zhang Linglu**: Resource products analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties like urea and soda - ash glass [21]. - **Sun Chengzhen**: Resource products analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [22].