光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.61%，报收 65.67 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.37%，报收 13430 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 4227 手至 57.86 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14539 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 52 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14621 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日增加 54 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期扰动仍更多在于宏观层面，美元指数跌破 | | | | 100 整数关口稍有反弹，美联储官员称，如果关税下降，预计 2025 年下半年降息。 | | | | 目前看 6 月不降息概率超过 9 成，7 月利率维持不变概率同样较大，持续关注宏观 | | | | 层面动态。国内市场方面，郑棉期价在新的区间震荡，纺织企业开机负荷无明显变 | | | | 化，原材料库存环比下降，产成品库存环比累积，驱动稍显偏弱。展望未来，天气 | | | | 层面扰动仍需持续关注，但短期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil prices will continue to fluctuate due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase discussions, non - compliance of some member countries, and the deadlock in US - Iran nuclear negotiations [1]. - The absolute price volatility of fuel oil (FU and LU) is expected to increase in the short term, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [3]. - The absolute price volatility of asphalt (BU) is expected to increase in the short term. BU may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term oscillatory mindset [5]. - The price of natural rubber will oscillate in the short term [5][7]. - The price fluctuation of methanol may increase, and attention should be paid to MTO device复产 plans and Iranian device changes [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, international oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July. Saudi Arabia warned non - compliant members. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation is at a deadlock, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The oil price will oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2507) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may be tight before June, and high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested. The absolute price volatility of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the LU - FU spread has shown an inflection point [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2507) rose. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. Supply may rise in June, but some refineries may reduce production next week. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak variety [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures contracts fell. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light. An EO - EG联产 device stopped working, and two synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol devices in Henan will be shut down for maintenance. PX supply supports PXN, and PTA devices are restarting. Polyester operating load is high, and ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to decrease. Both PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts (RU2509, NR, BR) showed different trends. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises decreased. The low production at the beginning of rubber tapping and rainfall in overseas production areas support raw material prices. Rubber imports increased, and Qingdao inventory decreased slightly. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased due to domestic device maintenance but is still at a high level in the past five years. Iranian device load has dropped, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. MTO device operation has not changed much, and port and inland inventories are low. The price fluctuation of methanol may increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) showed different trends. There are many upstream maintenance activities, and supply pressure is not large. Demand has increased due to tariff reduction, and inventory has decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at high levels, and polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is stable, but demand will weaken in the off - season. The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price change rate, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [13]. - Turkey's imports of Urals crude oil will increase in May as its top refinery Tupras has resumed purchasing Russian crude oil, which is traded below the Western price cap of $60 per barrel [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30][32][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [60][62][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy - Chemical Research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China) and a mid - level economist title [77]. 3.6 Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [79]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 05 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4 | 月经济数据整体较 3 月有一定程度下滑，但仍在关税战背景下保持韧性。 | | | | 其中社零同比 5.1%，继续受到"以旧换新"政策的明显支撑。4 月社会信贷 | | | | 需求偏弱，4 月累计新增人民币贷款 10.06 万亿元，同比多增 2.86%；4 月 M2 | | | | 同比 8%。此前中美发布联合声明，为后续进一步贸易协商奠定良好开局， | | | | 超过市场预期。近期三部门召开联合新闻发布会，央行宣布降准降息政策， | | | | 降低企业负债端成本。金融监管总局强调将大力推动中长期资金入市，通过 | | | 股指 | 类平准基金的方式支持、稳定和活跃资本市场，具体措施包括鼓励保险资金 | 震荡 | | | 加大入市力度、设立新的金融资产投资公司、支持汇金公司在必要时增持股 | | | | 票指数基金等。证监会表示将优化主动权益类基金的收费模式，扭转基金公 | | | | 司"旱涝保收"的现象。内部政策发力是股指 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 生猪 周三，生猪期价震荡收十字星，远月合约 2509 期价位于 1.4 万整数关口之下，9 月期价贴水现货，近月合约进入到交割月之后贴水回归，价格反弹。现货市场方 面，生猪价格一直维持在成本线之上，猪价呈现偏乐观的预期。目前，河南市场 出栏均价为 14.60 元/公斤，较昨日降 0.15 元/公斤。当地大场 115-130 公斤良种 猪主流出栏价格 14.60-14.80 元/公斤；中小场 115-130 公斤良种主流出栏价格 14.40 元/公斤左右；145-150 公斤大猪出栏价格 14.40 元/公斤，低价 14.20 元/ 公斤。下游屠宰方面，屠宰企业中小场良种标猪主流收购价格 14.40 元/公斤左右， 均重 115-125 公斤。整体来看，生猪 9 月合约贴水现货，饲料成本预期下降，对 猪价形成价格压力。技术上，短期关注 9 月合约猪价 13500 元整数支撑的价格表 现，长期等待多单入市机会。 震荡 二、市场信息 1. 据国家粮油信息中心，船期监测显示，5 月份开始我国进口大豆将集中到港，加上 4 月份部分大豆受检 验检疫加强等因素影响 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 点评 21 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 35860 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.93%，持 仓增仓 2952 手至 73488 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 640 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7865 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.75%，持仓 增仓 19275 手至 19.28 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9310 元/吨，较上一 交易日下调 102 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8100 元/吨，现货升水 扩至 205 元/吨。新疆大厂增产引发市场悲观预期，需求缺乏反转驱动叠 加期货持续增仓下压，可延续防御性空头策为主。多晶硅存在近端交割短 缺和需求急速流失的结构性矛盾。挤仓压力结束后基本面转弱逻辑再度回 归，主力对标交割基准价，短期大涨无力，可反弹布空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 二、日度数据监测 | | 分 项 | | 2025/5/20 | 20 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力09合约收盘价1855元/吨，微幅上涨0.22%。现货 | 震荡 | | | 市场局部继续弱势下调，价格下调的区域降幅多在10~20元/吨，其余地区价格基本 | | | | 维稳。目前山东临沂地区市场价格1880元/吨，河南地区市场价格1890元/吨，二者 | | | | 日环比均下降10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应高位波动，日产量昨日小幅提升0.3 | | | | 万吨至20.48万吨。需求端稳步跟进，中下游在低价环境中存在逢低采购情况，现货 | | | | 产销率昨日多数回升至100%附近，个别地区仍有分化。后期北方麦收结束后农业用 | | | | 肥仍有跟进预期，等待需求验证的同时关注干旱天气对作物播种及施肥的影响。出 | | | | 口细节持续公布，后续或仍将对市场产生情绪扰动。整体来看，尿素现货价格上方 | | | | 天花板限制明显，短期市场若无新增驱动，期货盘面将延续宽幅震荡趋势。关注 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term up and down drivers of Zhengzhou cotton are relatively weak, and it is expected to operate in a range. Attention should be paid to weather and macro - level disturbances. The international market is mainly affected by macro factors, and the fundamental drive is limited. The domestic new cotton planting area is expected to increase year - on - year, and the supply pressure remains [1] - For sugar, the recent drive is insufficient, and it is still treated as a range - bound market. Attention should be paid to future imports and domestic sales [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE US cotton fell 0.11% to 66.05 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.22% to 13,440 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 1,339 lots to 574,400 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,487 yuan per ton, up 22 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,567 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Sugar**: The beet planting area in Germany in the 2025/26 sugar - making season decreased by 6.6% to about 408,500 hectares. The mainstream quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 6,100 - 6,190 yuan per ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,900 - 5,950 yuan per ton, with most prices down 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar rebounded after a multi - day decline, and the domestic spot trading was average [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 7 - 9 contract spread was - 185 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,127 yuan, down 28 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,487 yuan per ton, up 22 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,567 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan [2] - **Sugar**: The 7 - 9 contract spread was 80 yuan, down 1 yuan; the main contract basis was 287 yuan, down 24 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 6,150 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and that in Liuzhou was 6,150 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Market Information - On May 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,455, a decrease of 46 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 316 [3] - On May 21, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 14,487 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,578 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,592 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,717 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On May 21, the yarn comprehensive load was 54.8, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.2, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 53.1, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.5, down 0.1 from the previous day [3] - On May 21, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,150 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and that in Liuzhou was 6,150 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [3] - On May 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 32,484, a decrease of 352 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 91 [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices [6][9][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight LME copper weakened with a 0.71% decline to $9481/ton, SHFE copper主力 dropped 0.41% to 77770 yuan/ton, and domestic spot imports remained in a loss [1]. - Macroeconomic factors such as poor US Treasury auctions and warnings from the ECB have suppressed risk appetite [1]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168825 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1271 tons to 156965 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 4520 tons to 41218 tons [1]. - High copper prices and premiums are constraining downstream procurement. Despite the sharp decline in the US dollar last night, the market's suppressed preference failed to drive up copper prices further [1]. - The market is concerned about a large long - position in copper, and the copper structure is unfavorable for short - positions. The continuous outflow of SHFE warehouse receipts indicates that some investors are conducting positive spread expansion trades, which helps maintain the current copper price. It is still regarded as oscillating with a slight upward trend [1]. Aluminum - Alumina trended slightly upwards, with AO2509 closing at 3243 yuan/ton, a 1.85% increase, and open interest increasing by 27721 lots to 385,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended slightly downwards, with AL2507 closing at 20135 yuan/ton, a 0.17% decrease, and open interest decreasing by 944 lots to 199,000 lots [1]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded slightly to 3077 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium widened to 70 yuan/ton [1]. - The news of Guinea's withdrawal of mining rights continues to ferment, and domestic alumina supply continues to cut production and conduct maintenance. Demand is generally rigid and shows marginal improvement. With fundamental support and ample speculation space in the news, there is still upward momentum [2]. - The low - expected ingot casting and outward shipment of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum, and the short - term effect of tariff adjustment on export rush continue. Aluminum ingot inventory continues to decline at a low level. With cost support weakening and seasonal off - season pressure, and limited boost from upstream alumina under the interweaving of long and short factors, it may continue to oscillate [2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 0.64% to $15630/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.32% to 123760 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201786 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 128 tons to 23014 tons [2]. - In the stainless - steel industry chain, the weekly transaction price of nickel - iron raw materials remained stable at around 940 yuan/nickel point, with a slight recovery to 955 yuan/nickel point last Friday. The cost support for stainless steel has shifted downwards compared to the previous period. Although there has been some production cut on the supply side, the social inventory level has not shown a significant de - stocking state. The previous price increase was affected by macro - factors and nickel - ore policy disturbances, but actual demand is difficult to sustain, so it will maintain an oscillating state in the short term [2]. - In the new - energy industry chain, raw materials are expected to increase in supply, the supply and demand of nickel sulfate are both weak, and the weekly production of ternary batteries at the cell end has weakened. The production of primary nickel decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly last week [2]. - Overall, the firm nickel - ore price supports the nickel price, but nickel - iron is trading at extremely low prices. It will maintain the current range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the primary nickel inventory and the progress of the Philippine government's ore - ban policy in June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - The report provides daily reviews of copper, aluminum, and nickel, including price changes, inventory levels, and market trends, and analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each metal [1][2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Compares prices, inventory, and other data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025, including the price of flat - copper, scrap copper, downstream products, and changes in inventory at different locations [3]. - **Aluminum**: Compares prices, raw material prices, downstream processing fees, and inventory data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [4]. - **Nickel**: Compares prices of nickel products, inventory, and import - export data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [4]. - **Zinc**: Compares prices, processing fees, inventory, and import - export data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [5]. - **Tin**: Compares prices, inventory, and import - export data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Presents charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Presents charts of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents charts of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Presents charts of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Presents charts of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Presents charts of copper concentrate index, copper smelting processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a medium - level gold investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. The team he leads has won many awards [48]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [48]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [49].

Index Trends - On May 21st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21% to close at 3387.57 points with a trading volume of 465.957 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44% to close at 10294.22 points with a trading volume of 707.488 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.23% with a trading volume of 234.419 billion yuan, opening at 6137.1, closing at 6132.18, with a daily high of 6141.73 and a low of 6109.92 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.18% with a trading volume of 155.147 billion yuan, opening at 5741.69, closing at 5757.92, with a daily high of 5763.08 and a low of 5733.83 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.43% with a trading volume of 59.788 billion yuan, opening at 2716.84, closing at 2728.43, with a daily high of 2740.77 and a low of 2716.84 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 fell 13.84 points from the previous close. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals and utilities pulled the index up, while media, computer, and electronics sectors pulled it down [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 10.55 points from the previous close. Sectors such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and non - ferrous metals pulled the index up, while communication, machinery, and electronics sectors pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 18.21 points from the previous close. Sectors such as power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and banks pulled the index up, while the electronics sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 11.8 points from the previous close. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and coal pulled the index up, while the electronics sector pulled it down [3]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 133.48, IM01 of - 223.85, IM02 of - 375.94, and IM03 of - 545.18 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 100.87, IC01 of - 177.63, IC02 of - 299.38, and IC03 of - 432.85 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 35.53, IF01 of - 76.46, IF02 of - 108.45, and IF03 of - 151.56 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 17.38, IH01 of - 48.12, IH02 of - 54.74, and IH03 of - 58.39 [13]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, IM00 - 02 was - 158.791, etc. [22]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, IC00 - 02 was - 90.0318, etc. [23]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, IF00 - 02 was - 13.4098, etc. [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889, etc. [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as unexpected increases in US crude and fuel inventories, changes in Chinese crude processing, and Iraqi oil production, and will continue to oscillate [1] - Fuel oil prices are influenced by import - export volumes, supply - demand relationships of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils, and cost - end crude oil fluctuations. The LU - FU price difference has shown an inflection point, and the strategy of narrowing the spread can be continued [2] - Asphalt prices are affected by inventory levels, production capacity utilization, and demand. It may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [2][4] - Polyester product prices are affected by factors such as device maintenance, production load adjustment, and PX supply. In the short term, both PTA and ethylene glycol will be treated with an oscillating mindset [4] - Rubber prices are affected by factors such as inventory changes, anti - dumping investigations, and raw material prices, and will oscillate in the short term [6] - Methanol prices are affected by domestic and overseas supply, MTO device operation, and inventory levels, and price volatility may increase [6][8] - Polyolefin prices are affected by supply (upstream maintenance) and demand (tariff reduction), and will maintain an oscillating trend [8] - PVC prices are affected by supply (device maintenance and resumption) and demand (real - estate construction), and are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Wednesday, WTI new July contract closed down $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel (down 0.74%), Brent July contract closed down $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel (down 0.72%), and SC2507 closed at 463.1 yuan per barrel, down 5.1 yuan per barrel (down 1.09%) [1] - EIA data showed that last week, US commercial crude inventories increased by 1.328 million barrels to 443.16 million barrels, contrary to the market expectation of a 1.3 - million - barrel decrease. Cushing crude inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels to 23.44 million barrels. US net crude imports increased by 110,000 barrels per day to 2.58 million barrels per day, reaching a six - week high. SPR inventories increased by 743,000 barrels to 400.493 million barrels [1] - In April, China's industrial crude processing slowed down, with processed crude oil of 58.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. From January to April, processed crude oil was 240.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [1] - In 2025, Iraq's crude oil production was 3.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day compared to 2024, and exports were about 3.7 million barrels per day, a decrease of 110,000 barrels per day compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Fuel Oil - On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.29% to 3,074 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 rose 0.25% to 3,571 yuan per ton [2] - In April 2025, China imported 1.8274 million tons of fuel oil, a month - on - month increase of 32.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.87%; exported 1.7725 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% and a year - on - year increase of 1.56% [2] - In May, the arrival of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes decreased. Before June, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight, and the demand is also satisfactory. For high - sulfur fuel oil, with the increase in summer power - generation demand and the strong performance of the downstream bunker market, inventories are gradually being digested [2] Asphalt - On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2506 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.06% to 3,537 yuan per ton [2] - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, this week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 30.64%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.80%, an increase of 0.07% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 32.5%, a decrease of 3.34% from last week [2] - From the perspective of June's refinery production schedule, with profit recovery, supply may further increase. However, next week, some refineries' production conversion and shutdown may temporarily lead to a decline in the operating rate. In terms of demand, the concentrated delivery of refinery orders and the start of northern terminal projects support the rigid demand to some extent, but the demand in the southern region is average, and with the upcoming rainy season, the terminal demand will be further suppressed [2] Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,788 yuan per ton yesterday, up 1.18%; the spot offer was at a premium of 125 yuan per ton over the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,414 yuan per ton, up 0.02%, with the basis decreasing by 1 yuan per ton to 88 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,508 yuan per ton. The PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6,766 yuan per ton, up 1.47%. The spot negotiation price was $836 per ton, equivalent to 6,932 yuan per ton in RMB, and the basis widened by 30 yuan per ton to 196 yuan per ton [4] - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales estimate of about 40%. A 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started maintenance today, expected to last about 2 weeks. A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in East China has recently switched from EG to EO production, and the current ethylene glycol production load has dropped to 30% - 40%, with a preliminary plan to start full - epoxy production in July. A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi ended maintenance yesterday, and the current load is around 50%. A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products tomorrow [4] Rubber - On Wednesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 120 yuan per ton to 14,820 yuan per ton, the NR main contract closed down 200 yuan per ton to 12,715 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract closed down 170 yuan per ton to 11,900 yuan per ton [6] - As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons (0.96%) from the previous week. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous week, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week [6] - On May 21, 2025, the European Commission officially launched an anti - dumping investigation into new passenger cars and light - truck pneumatic rubber tires imported from China. At the beginning of the domestic and overseas rubber - tapping season, the production is low, and heavy rainfall in overseas production areas has disrupted tapping, providing support for raw material prices. Rubber imports have increased year - on - year, and inventories in Qingdao have slightly decreased [6] Methanol - On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,320 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,037.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $256 - 260 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $330 - 335 per ton. Downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1,115 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2,530 - 2,580 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 4,985 yuan per ton [6] - Due to an increase in domestic plant maintenance, methanol supply has decreased but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas, the operating load of Iranian plants has dropped to about 70%, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is still recovering. Overall, the operation of MTO plants has changed little, the port inventory level is low, and the inland inventory level is also not high. Future attention should be paid to the restart plan of MTO plants and changes in Iranian plants, and methanol price volatility may increase [6][8] Polyolefins - On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7,150 - 7,350 yuan per ton. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil - based PP was 44.83 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of coal - based PP was 1,110.33 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of methanol - based PP was - 564 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of propane - dehydrogenation - based PP was - 746.74 yuan per ton, and the production gross profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP was - 132.67 yuan per ton. For PE, the mainstream price of HDPE was 8,040 yuan per ton, the mainstream price of LDPE was 9,269 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of LLDPE was 7,549 yuan per ton. The market gross profit of oil - based polyethylene was 76 yuan per ton, and the market gross profit of coal - based polyethylene was 1,483 yuan per ton [8] - Currently, there is a lot of upstream maintenance, so the overall supply pressure is not high. In terms of demand, with the tariff reduction, downstream enterprises have increased their procurement of raw materials, and inventories have started to decline. In the short term, the fundamental pressure has been released, and the valuation of polyolefins has recovered. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, so there is still pressure on the upside of polyolefin valuation, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8] PVC - On Wednesday, the price of the PVC market in East China oscillated and adjusted. The price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC was 4,750 - 4,880 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based PVC was about 4,980 - 5,200 yuan per ton. In the North China PVC market, individual products were adjusted, with the mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC being about 4,680 - 4,860 yuan per ton and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based PVC being 5,150 - 5,200 yuan per ton. In the South China PVC market, the price changed little, with the mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC being about 4,880 - 4,940 yuan per ton and the mainstream offer price of ethylene - based PVC being 5,000 - 5,150 yuan per ton [8] - Maintenance plants will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the construction of domestic real - estate projects has temporarily stabilized, maintaining the operating rates of pipes and profiles at a relatively stable level. However, as real - estate construction gradually enters the off - season, demand will gradually weaken. Overall, in the short term, due to maintenance disruptions, the fundamental pressure has been released, but as plants gradually resume production, PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 22, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10] 3.3 Market News - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that last week, US crude inventories increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. As of the week ending May 16, US crude inventories increased by 2.499 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.238 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.401 million barrels [13] - Trade and shipping data showed that with the increase in production, Russia's seaborne fuel - oil and vacuum - gasoil exports in April increased by 8.5% from the previous month to about 4 million tons. Russia's offline primary refining capacity last month was 2.91 million tons, a 21% decrease from March, leading to an increase in fuel supply [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - The report presents various charts, including the closing prices of main contracts, basis of main contracts, spreads of inter - period contracts, spreads of inter - variety contracts, and production profits, to visually display the price trends and relationships of different energy - chemical products [14][30][44][60][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude - oil, natural - gas, fuel - oil, asphalt, and shipping analyst Du Bingqin, the natural - rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [75] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80]