1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Neutral [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - April economic data declined compared to March but remained resilient under the tariff war. Social retail sales were up 5.1% year-on-year, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and M2 up 8% year-on-year. The China-US joint statement and subsequent policies are expected to boost the stock market [1]. - The internal policy push is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded by about 4%. However, ROE is still at the bottoming stage. These measures will help companies repair their balance sheets and lift the stock market valuation [1]. - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with the 30-year and 10-year contracts up 0.03%, the 5-year down 0.04%, and the 2-year down 0.03%. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation and other factors have changed the bond market environment, and the short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: April economic data was resilient, and policies such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the entry of long-term funds into the market, are expected to support the stock market. The revenue and profit of A-share listed companies are showing signs of improvement, and the stock market valuation is expected to rise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures had mixed performance, and the bond market environment has changed due to policy and economic factors. The short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: All major contracts of stock index futures declined, with IM down 1.56%, IC down 1.31%, IF down 0.89%, and IH down 0.53% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: All major stock indexes declined, with the CSI 1000 down 1.68%, the CSI 500 down 1.45%, the SSE 50 down 0.49%, and the SSE 300 down 0.91% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30-year and 10-year contracts rose, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell. The 30-year contract was up 0.15%, and the 10-year contract was up 0.02% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds showed different trends [3]. 3.3 Market News - In May, the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, down from 3.6% last month, and the 1-year LPR was 3%, down from 3.1% last month [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts and their basis [6][7][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts show the trends of various currency exchange rates, including the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB and other currencies [20][21][22][24][25]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 1 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 p 2 2.1 基差：数据 | 品种 | 今日价格 | 上日价格 | 变化 | 交割成本 | 今日基差 | 上日基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卡粉 | 854 | 855 | -1.0 | 809 | 84 | 88 | -4 | | BRBF | 780 | 778 | 2.0 | 804 | 79 | 79 | -0 | | 纽曼粉 | 756 | 754 | 2.0 | 791 | 66 | 67 | -0 | | PB 粉 | 764 | 762 | 2.0 | 810 | 85 | 86 | -0 | | 麦克粉 | 744 | 742 | 2.0 | 802 | 77 | 78 | -0 | | 罗伊山粉 | 734 | 732 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On May 20, polysilicon showed a weak oscillating trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 35,625 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.99%, and an increase in positions by 7,474 lots to 70,536 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material dropped to 37,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 975 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon fell below the 8,000-yuan mark, with the main contract 2506 closing at 7,910 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.53%, and a decrease in positions by 10,324 lots to 64,706 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 9,412 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,100 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 95 yuan/ton. Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, due to the lack of a reversal driver in demand and the suppression of warehouse receipt pressure, a defensive short strategy is recommended. Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research View - On May 20, polysilicon and industrial silicon prices both declined. The main polysilicon contract 2506 closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 0.99% for the day, while the main industrial silicon contract 2506 closed at 7,910 yuan/ton, down 2.53% for the day [2]. - Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, demand lacks a reversal driver, and warehouse receipt pressure is suppressing prices. A defensive short strategy is recommended [2]. - Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 140 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon also declined, with the largest decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 1,525 yuan/ton and 625 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of N-type polysilicon material and dense material/single crystal use decreased by 500 yuan/ton and 1,000 yuan/ton respectively. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,097 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 4,770 tons to 331,920 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 90 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 210,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, price differentials between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: The report includes charts showing the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, and the weekly industry inventory, as well as the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [22][23][26]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report includes charts showing the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [29][31][37]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have extensive experience in commodity research and provide services to many leading spot enterprises [39][40].

| | 影响。 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，生猪期价近强远弱，远月合约 2509 期价位于 1.4 万整数关口之下，9 月期 | | | | 价贴水现货，近月合约进入到交割月之后贴水回归，价格反弹。现货市场方面， | | | | 生猪价格一直维持在成本线之上，猪价呈现偏乐观的预期。目前，河南生猪市场 | | | | 出栏均价为 14.86 元/公斤，较上周五降 0.07 元/公斤。当地大场 115-130 公斤良 | | | 生猪 | 种猪主流出栏价格 14.90-15.15 元/公斤，低价 14.70 元/公斤；中小场 115-140 | 震荡 | | | 公斤良种主流出栏价格 14.40 元/公斤左右，高价 14.60 元/公斤；170-175 公斤肥 | | | | 猪出栏价格 14.80 元/公斤左右。下游屠宰方面，屠宰企业中小场良种标猪主流收 | | | | 购价格 14.40-14.60 元/公斤，均重 115-125 公斤。整体来看，生猪 9 月合约贴水 | | | | 现货，饲料成本预期下降，对猪价形成价格压力。技术上，短期关注 9 月合约猪 | | | | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the cotton and sugar industries is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.73% to 66.12 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,395 yuan per ton. The main - contract position increased by 1,221 lots to 575,700 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,465 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan from the previous day. The China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B was 14,550 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the macro - level disturbances are significant. The Fed officials said they won't rush to cut interest rates, and the U.S. dollar index is weakening. The U.S. cotton price lacks a continuous upward drive. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price is oscillating in a new range, lacking the power to break the situation. If there are no macro - level surprises, the market will focus on new cotton. The new cotton planting area is expected to increase year - on - year, and this year is still expected to be a bumper harvest, so there is pressure on the supply side. Overall, the short - term upward and downward drivers for Zhengzhou cotton are weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - For sugar, the mainstream quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 6,110 - 6,200 yuan per ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,910 - 5,950 yuan per ton, both down 10 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China imported 85,400 tons of sugar syrup and premixed powder. The raw sugar price continued to decline slightly due to the smooth harvest. Without macro - level support, the market is temporarily bearish, and attention should be paid to the Brazilian sugarcane crushing progress. The domestic spot market has average trading volume, with end - users buying as needed. The support comes from the relatively low inventory pressure, and the pressure comes from future imports. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 7 - 9 contract spread is - 180, up 10; the main - contract basis is 1,155, down 21; the Xinjiang spot price is 14,465 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan; the national spot price is 14,550 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan [2] - For sugar, the 7 - 9 contract spread is 81, up 1; the main - contract basis is 311, up 4; the Nanning spot price is 6,140 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan; the Liuzhou spot price is 6,160 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 2. Market Information - On May 20, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,501, down 54 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 311 [3] - On May 20, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,465 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,569 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,583 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,706 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On May 20, the comprehensive yarn load was 54.8, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 23.2, unchanged; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 53.1, unchanged; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 30.6, down 0.1 [3] - On May 20, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 6,140 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 6,160 yuan per ton, unchanged [3] - On May 20, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 32,836, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 91 [4] 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar, which help to analyze the historical trends and current situations of these two soft commodities [6][13][16] 4. Research Team - The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda - ash glass, and cotton - related varieties respectively, and have rich experience and many honors [18][19][20]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.4%至 9554.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.36%至 | | | 78140 元/吨；国内现货进口亏损幅度加大。宏观方面，欧美关税问题进行谈判，日本 | | | 考虑接受美国调降关税，而非完全豁免。国内方面，中国 4 月经济数据显示，消费略 | | | 超预期，固定资产投资整体增速较低，房地产出现回踩特征。库存方面，LME 铜库存 | | | 下降 3575 吨至 170750 吨；comex 铜库存增加 1127 吨至 155694 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 | | 铜 | 16175 吨至 45738。需求方面，随着铜价走高，旺季转淡季预期下，下游采购相对谨 | | | 慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。昨晚黄金和原油大幅回升，带动市场情绪，铜价震 | | | 荡走高。另外，市场关注国内某仓位大量持有铜多头情况，市场或担心挤仓风险，且 | | | 铜结构也不利于空头布局，从 SHFE 仓单来看依然维系大量流出情形，表明部分投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract dropped 2.27% to 61,180 yuan/ton. Spot prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide all decreased. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 139 tons to 36,545 tons [3]. - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. plans to produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate from its 40,000 - ton project this year. In April 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 28,300 tons, a 56.3% month - on - month and 33.6% year - on - year increase. Lithium spodumene imports were 622,900 tons, a 16.5% month - on - month increase [3]. - The lithium ore market's quotation and transaction price centers moved down. Supply increased by 575 tons week - on - week to 16,630 tons, but the total supply in May is expected to be lower than expected. Demand for lithium carbonate from ternary and lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in May, and the cell segment remains prosperous. Inventory increased by 351 tons week - on - week to 131,920 tons, with downstream and other segments reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [3]. - The current market contradiction lies in supply. The continuous decline in lithium ore prices and low supply reduction have led to market pessimism, but short - term low valuations may cause capital disturbances and news may affect market sentiment. Attention should be paid to actual upstream production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Price Changes**: The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract dropped 2.27% to 61,180 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 450 yuan/ton to 63,250 yuan/ton, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 450 yuan/ton to 61,600 yuan/ton, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 200 yuan/ton to 65,290 yuan/ton, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 200 yuan/ton to 70,435 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 139 tons to 36,545 tons [3]. - **News**: Salt Lake Co., Ltd. plans to produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate from its 40,000 - ton project this year. In April 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 28,300 tons (a 56.3% month - on - month and 33.6% year - on - year increase), with 20,300 tons from Chile (a 59.3% month - on - month and 18.1% year - on - year increase) and 6,850 tons from Argentina (a 47.4% month - on - month and 101.1% year - on - year increase). Lithium spodumene imports were 622,900 tons (a 16.5% month - on - month increase), including 297,700 tons from Australia (a 3.2% month - on - month decrease and 117.3% year - on - year increase), 40,300 tons from South Africa (a 22.0% month - on - month decrease), 106,000 tons from Zimbabwe (an 81.5% month - on - month increase), and 89,000 tons from Nigeria (a 4.6% month - on - month increase) [3]. - **Market Situation**: The lithium ore market's quotation and transaction price centers moved down. Supply increased by 575 tons week - on - week to 16,630 tons, but the total supply in May is expected to be lower than expected. Demand for lithium carbonate from ternary and lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in May, and the cell segment remains prosperous. Inventory increased by 351 tons week - on - week to 131,920 tons, with downstream and other segments reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The current market contradiction lies in supply. The continuous decline in lithium ore prices and low supply reduction have led to market pessimism, but short - term low valuations may cause capital disturbances and news may affect market sentiment. Attention should be paid to actual upstream production cuts [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Price Changes**: Most products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain showed price declines on May 20, 2025, compared to the previous day. For example, the main contract closing price of futures dropped 320 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract closing price dropped 3,640 yuan/ton. Lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other product prices also decreased to varying degrees [5]. - **Price Differences**: The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - **Price Differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other price differences from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other segments from September 2024 to May 2025 [35][37]. - **Production Costs**: Charts present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格宽幅波动，主力09合约收盘价1849元/吨，微幅上涨0.11%。现货 | 震荡 | | | 市场偏弱运行，昨日多数主流地区市场价格继续回调10~30元/吨，山东地区市场价 | | | | 格下降10元/吨至1890元/吨，河南地区市场价格下降10元/吨至1900元/吨。基本面 | | | | 来看，尿素供应高位波动，日产量昨日回落0.4万吨至20.15万吨。需求端稳步跟进 | | | | ，昨日主流地区现货产销率仍偏弱波动，对市场支撑也较为有限。后期麦收结束后 | | | | 农业用肥仍有跟进预期，等待需求力度验证的同时关注干旱天气对作物播种及施肥 | | | | 的影响。出 相关 息 次出现，后续等待进一步验证。整体来看，尿素期、现价 | | | | 格上方仍有限制，短期市场驱动较为有限，盘面延续震荡趋势。关注现货成交情况 | | | | 、天气情况及本周库存数据。 | | | 纯碱 | 周二纯碱期货价格宽幅震 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 黑色商品日报 | | 市场仍在观望，首询价格 5700 元/吨，较上月环比下降 250 元/吨。锰矿端近期也有新消息传出，South32 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 发布关于 GEMCO 恢复澳大利亚锰矿石出口销售的声明，第一批锰矿正在装船，预计几天后离港发运， | | | | 近期国内锰矿价格相对稳定。综合来看，近期市场在观望主流钢招定价情况，持续上行驱动有限，短期仍 | | | | 以震荡看待。 | | | | 硅铁：周二，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5638 元/吨，环比下跌 0.14%，主力合约持仓环比增加 1111 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5400 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日下调 50 元/吨。昨日黑色板块整体走势偏 | | | 硅铁 | 弱，硅铁期价高开低走，尾盘小幅收跌。硅铁主流钢招价格敲定，最终 75B 采购价格 5800 元/吨，较首询 | 震荡 | | | 价格小幅上调，但较 4 月定价下跌 150 元/吨，5 月采购数量 2135 吨，较上轮增 435 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][5][6][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI and Brent prices declined, while SC2507 rose. News of Israel's potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities led to a sharp early - morning jump. API data showed an increase in US crude inventories and decreases in gasoline and distillate inventories. Kazakhstan's production growth and OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production increase, along with the uncertainty of US - Iran negotiations, cause the oil price to continue oscillating [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil rose, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In April 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight before June, and the demand is fair. High - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested due to increased summer power generation demand. The volatility of the absolute prices of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. In June, supply may increase due to profit recovery, but some refinery turnarounds may temporarily reduce the operating rate. Demand is supported to some extent by order deliveries and project starts in the north, but is weak in the south, especially with the upcoming rainy season. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak product among oil products, so a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures all declined on Tuesday. In April 2025, online retail sales and social consumer goods retail data showed mixed trends. An MEG plant had a power outage, and a PTA plant's restart was postponed. PX supply is tight, and PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate in the short term [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. In April 2025, China's synthetic rubber and rubber tire production increased year - on - year. The export of rubber tires also increased. Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased slightly. Due to low - yield at the beginning of the domestic and foreign tapping seasons and rainfall in overseas areas, the raw material price is supported, and the natural rubber price will oscillate in the short term [5][6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different levels in different regions. The domestic supply decreased due to increased plant maintenance but remained at a high level in the past five years. The Iranian plant load dropped, and the far - month arrival volume is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. The MTO plant operating rate changed little, and the port and inland inventory levels are low. The methanol price volatility may increase [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices were in a certain range. Currently, there are many upstream turnarounds, so the overall supply pressure is not large. With the tariff reduction, downstream enterprises increased raw material procurement, and the inventory decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, so polyolefins are expected to oscillate [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume operation, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is temporarily stable, keeping the开工 rate of pipes and profiles relatively stable, but demand will weaken as the real - estate construction enters the off - season. In the short term, the fundamental pressure is relieved due to maintenance disturbances, but the PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 6 - month contract closed down $0.13 to $62.56/barrel, a 0.21% decline; Brent 7 - month contract closed down $0.16 to $65.38/barrel, a 0.24% decline; SC2507 closed up 3.2 yuan to 467.8 yuan/barrel, a 0.69% increase. US intelligence on Israel's potential strike on Iran led to a nearly 3% jump in early - morning oil prices. API data showed a 2.499 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventories, a 3.238 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventories, and a 1.401 - million - barrel decrease in distillate inventories. Kazakhstan's May oil production increased by 2%, ignoring OPEC+ pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2507) rose 0.86% to 3042 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell 0.56% to 3556 yuan/ton. In April 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports were 525,500 tons, a 21.07% month - on - month decline and a 54.11% year - on - year increase. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight before June, and the demand is fair. High - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract (BU2506) rose 0.8% to 3541 yuan/ton. In June, supply may increase due to profit recovery, but some refinery turnarounds may temporarily reduce the operating rate. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south, especially with the upcoming rainy season [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.92% at 4732 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed down 1.39% at 4413 yuan/ton. In April 2025, online retail sales and social consumer goods retail data showed mixed trends. An MEG plant had a power outage, and a PTA plant's restart was postponed. PX supply is tight, and PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. In April 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 743,000 tons, a 15.2% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production from January to April was 2.947 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year increase. The rubber tire production in April was 102 million pieces, a 3.1% year - on - year increase. The export of rubber tires also increased. Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased slightly [5][6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2315 yuan/ton, the Inner Mongolia north - line price was 2067.5 yuan/ton, the CFR China price was $260 - 264/ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $330 - 335/ton. The domestic supply decreased due to increased plant maintenance but remained at a high level in the past five years. The Iranian plant load dropped, and the far - month arrival volume is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 7130 - 7350 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is not large due to many upstream turnarounds, and demand increased with tariff reduction, leading to inventory decline. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume operation, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Real - estate construction is temporarily stable, but demand will weaken as it enters the off - season [9]. 3.2 Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 21, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The API reported that for the week ending May 16, US crude inventories increased by 2.499 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.238 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.401 million barrels [13]. - Trade and shipping data showed that Russia's April seaborne fuel oil and vacuum gas oil exports increased by 8.5% month - on - month to about 4 million tons, as offline primary refining capacity decreased by 21% compared to March [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and para - xylene [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, para - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][36][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [62][64][66]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, and LLDPE production profit [71][75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [78]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China), a title of intermediate economist, and experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [80].