黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅调整，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3158 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 下跌 7 元/吨，跌幅为 0.22%，持仓减少 3.88 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格持平于 2970 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3250 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.36 万吨。近期大宗 | | | | 商品市场涨价情绪较为浓厚，对低估值的螺纹走势形成较强提振，钢厂接单情况整体较好，部分钢厂冬储 | | | | 资源已提前锁定。不过近期钢厂盈利回升较为明显，螺纹产量连续回升，需求端随着气温下降逐步走弱， | | | | 上周螺纹库存已经由降转增，供需边际有所走弱。目前螺纹处于有估值，但缺少驱动局面，预计短期盘面 | | | | 价格仍以窄幅震荡运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格冲高回落，收于 819.5 元/吨，较前一 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 点评 13 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 8635/吨，日内跌幅 1.65%，持仓 增仓 3592 手至 24.25 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一 交易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 215 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 49005 元/吨，日内跌幅 4.45%，持 仓增仓 14 手至 48844 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格降至 54750 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格 54750 元/吨，现货升水扩至 5745 元/吨。新疆 大厂进入检修期，硅厂高位套保和积极向期现商出货。厂家库存逐步向 中间环节转移，隐性库存增加。近期成本端大稳小动，工业硅供需双减 维持震荡态势。反内卷和行业自律消息频发，新疆春节前物流停摆压 力，产区开启节前抢运动作，出现集中性仓单注册，过热投机情绪降 温，多晶硅上方溢价空间受限。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 3.1 工业硅及成本端价格 图表 1：工业硅各牌号价 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2026-01-14 一、指数走势 01 月 13 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.64%，收于 4138.76 点，成交额 14815.74 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-1.37%，收于 14169.4 点，成交额 21694.11 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-1.84%，成交额 8246.52 亿元，其中开盘价 8381.04，收盘价 8203.13，当日最高价 8381.04，最低价 8177.63； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-1.28%，成交额 7352.19 亿元，其中开盘价 8270.42，收盘价 8143.28，当日最高价 8270.42，最低价 8106.61； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.6%，成交额 8010.55 亿元，其中开盘价 4798.05，收盘价 4761.03，当日最高价 4836.95，最低价 4745.52； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-0.34%，成交额 1888.53 亿元，其中开盘价 3150.73，收盘价 3132.93，当日最高价 3177.74，最低价 3123.17。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical commodities market is that most varieties are expected to show an oscillatory trend. For crude oil, supply - side concerns are intensifying, which will provide phased support for oil prices. For fuel oil, the short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may follow the oil price fluctuations, and it is recommended to short high - sulfur fuel oil on rallies. For asphalt, the price is expected to stabilize and strengthen. For polyester, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, while ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely. For rubber, the price is under pressure from inventory accumulation. For methanol, it is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. For polyolefins, they will continue to oscillate at the bottom. For PVC, the price will also maintain bottom - level oscillations [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - WTI February contract closed at $61.15 per barrel, up $1.65 or 2.77%. Brent March contract closed at $65.47 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.51%. SC2602 closed at 450.4 yuan per barrel, up 12.7 yuan or 2.90%. - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal's disruption, along with multiple factors, has halved the loading volume to about 900,000 barrels per day. Kazakhstan has diverted some oil to other routes. - API data shows an increase in US API crude, Cushing crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. - At least 4 Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea were attacked, and supply - side concerns are intensifying, providing phased support for oil prices. The view is oscillatory [1]. Fuel Oil - The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2603) rose 0.53% to 2,461 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) rose 1.66% to 3,066 yuan per ton. - The low - sulfur fuel oil market will remain well - supplied in the short term, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support from the recovery of downstream demand. However, the entry of Venezuelan heavy crude may have a negative impact on high - sulfur spreads. - It is recommended to short high - sulfur fuel oil on rallies, and the view is oscillatory [2]. Asphalt - The main contract of asphalt (BU2602) fell 0.66% to 3,140 yuan per ton. - Due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, the expectation of tight processing raw materials has strengthened, and the refinery supply has decreased, driving up the price. - The market will be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation," and the price is expected to stabilize and strengthen. The view is oscillatory [2]. Polyester - TA605 closed at 5,140 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. EG2605 closed at 3,815 yuan per ton, down 1.68%. PX futures contract 603 closed at 7,282 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. - Geopolitical risks have raised the risk premium of crude oil, and there is a game between the downstream negative feedback and the rise in oil prices. The price of polyester is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely. The view is oscillatory [2][4]. Rubber - The main contract of natural rubber (RU2605) fell 155 yuan per ton to 15,975 yuan per ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 170 yuan per ton to 12,840 yuan per ton. - In November 2025, the export volume of natural rubber decreased by 14.7% year - on - year and 29.8% month - on - month. - The rubber price rebounded in a general commodity - rising atmosphere, but it is under pressure from inventory accumulation after the low - production season. The view is oscillatory [4]. Methanol - The spot price in Taicang was 2,257 yuan per ton. - The arrival volume in January has decreased significantly, and the MTO device load has also declined. The port will face inventory - removal pressure, and the price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. The view is oscillatory [4]. Polyolefins - The mainstream price of PP in East China was 6,370 - 6,500 yuan per ton, and the profit margins of various production methods were negative. For PE, the prices of different types are given, and the profit margins of different production methods vary. - In January, there are partial temporary shutdowns and maintenance of upstream devices, and the supply is expected to decrease slightly. The demand will recover in early January but decline in late January due to the Spring Festival. - The inventory is expected to rise in late January, and polyolefins will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The view is oscillatory [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The market prices in East, North, and South China have adjusted. - The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand has slowed down. The market shows a structure of "weak reality and strong expectation." The export tax - refund policy change will increase the upward pressure on the far - month contract and support the near - month contract. The price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. The view is oscillatory [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The data table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical varieties on January 13th and 12th, 2026, as well as the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump's increased verbal attacks on Iran have intensified investors' concerns about US intervention and supply disruptions in Iran, which may threaten Iran's daily oil production of about 3.3 million barrels. Trump also said he would impose a 25% tariff on goods from countries "doing business" with Iran. - The situation in Iran has also exacerbated the bullish sentiment in the market. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal's disruption has halved the loading volume of Kazakh crude to about 900,000 barrels per day, but Kazakhstan has diverted some oil to other routes [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - There are price trend charts for the main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and paraxylene [12][14][16][18][20][23][24][26][27]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - There are basis trend charts for the main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][34][35][36][39][40]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - There are spread trend charts for different contracts of energy - chemical commodities, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [42][44][47][50][52][54][56]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - There are spread and ratio trend charts for different energy - chemical varieties, including crude oil (domestic - international, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [58][60][62][64]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - There are profit and processing - fee trend charts for energy - chemical products, including LLDPE production profit, PP production profit, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Members Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, Zhong Meiyan, with rich experience and many awards; the energy - chemical research director, Du Bingqin, also with many honors and in - depth industry research; the natural rubber/polyester analyst, Di Yilin, who has won some awards and is good at data analysis; and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst, Peng Haibo, with a background in futures - spot trading and a CFA - level 3 qualification [71][72][73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index Futures: Oscillating [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Relatively Strong [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market adjusted with oscillations throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2%. AI-related concepts and some sectors like oil and gas and power grid equipment showed strength, while the commercial spaceflight concept declined. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, setting a new record. The rise of the A-share index at the beginning of 2026 was driven by global technological development, the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, and the weakening dollar. The tense global geopolitical situation led to a short-term surge in rare metals. With the index at a high level and heavy trading volume, caution is advised when chasing high prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed with gains in some contracts. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital withdrawal. The short-term sufficient liquidity supports the bond market, but factors such as economic stability, rising inflation, and cautiousness towards interest rate cuts pose certain constraints. The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market adjusted with oscillations, with the ChiNext Index down nearly 2%. AI medical, AI pharmaceutical, AI marketing, oil and gas, and power grid equipment sectors performed well, while the commercial spaceflight concept retreated. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, a new record. The index rise at the beginning of 2026 was driven by global technological development, the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, and the weakening dollar. The tense geopolitical situation led to a short - term surge in rare metals. With the index at a high level and heavy trading volume, caution is needed when chasing high prices, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year treasury bond futures contracts closed higher, while the 2 - year contract remained stable. The central bank conducted 3586 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 2576 billion yuan. The short - term sufficient liquidity supports the bond market, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautiousness towards interest rate cuts pose constraints. The bond market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [2]. 3.2 Price Changes on the Day - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 13, 2026, IH decreased by 0.08%, IF by 0.32%, IC by 1.28%, and IM by 1.82% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index decreased by 0.34%, the CSI 300 Index by 0.60%, the CSI 500 Index by 1.28%, and the CSI 1000 Index by 1.84% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS decreased by 0.01%, TF remained unchanged, T increased slightly by 0.00%, and TL increased by 0.13% [4]. 3.3 Market News - The market adjusted with oscillations throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index down nearly 2%. AI - related concepts and some sectors like oil and gas and power grid equipment showed strength, while the commercial spaceflight concept declined. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, a new record. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.37%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.96% [5]. - AI medical, AI pharmaceutical, AI marketing, and oil and gas sectors led the gains, while commercial spaceflight, controlled nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and optical communication sectors led the losses [5]. - There were 1520 rising stocks, 74 daily limit stocks, 3547 falling stocks, 56 daily limit down stocks, and 58 stocks with broken daily limits, with a broken - limit rate of 47% [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the historical price trends, basis trends, inter - period spread trends, cross - variety spread trends, and capital interest rate trends of treasury bond futures contracts [14][16][19][22]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report displays the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [24][25][26][28][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose and then fell, while domestic copper fluctuated widely, with domestic refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, causing concerns about the Fed's independence. In China, export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic cells are adjusted, potentially leading to export - rush actions in Q1. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 137,225 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,215 tons to 472,140 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream enterprises became more cautious in purchasing, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand. Despite short - term weakening fundamentals, positive sentiment in the precious metals market spread to the non - ferrous market, and the Q1 export - rush expectation also pushed copper prices up. It is suggested to buy on dips but avoid over - chasing highs [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2605 closing at 2,821 yuan/ton, a 0.63% decline, and open interest increasing by 15,068 lots to 561,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2603 closing at 24,630 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase, and open interest increasing by 4,112 lots to 383,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract AD2603 closing at 23,445 yuan/ton, a 1.03% increase, and open interest increasing by 306 lots to 22,296 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,659 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed to par. Alumina plants have high ore reserves, with low short - term premium purchasing sentiment, and costs continue to decline. After the environmental control of alumina ends, production resumes and imports supplement, causing inventories at manufacturers and downstream to accumulate, and the logic of spot converging to futures continues. Due to the reappearance of warehousing profits in Xinjiang, warrants may put new downward pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises are rushing to export, and the operating rate of the processing end is expected to remain resilient. The pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation eases, and the divergence between the macro and micro levels gradually converges, with the over - heating boost turning into a rational correction. Aluminum prices continue the high - level trend, and the spot discount continues to narrow [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 2.12% to $18,075/ton, while Shanghai nickel fell 0.04% to 141,520 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 228 tons to 284,562 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 600 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that Indonesia will adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand to support the price of its mineral products. From a fundamental perspective, as prices rise rapidly, product prices in all links of the industrial chain strengthen, and the production of primary nickel increased by 18.5% month - on - month to 37,200 tons, which may put some pressure on the market price due to hedging demand. The Indonesian policy stimulates nickel prices to strengthen, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips near the cost line, waiting for the actual implementation of the quota [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper rose from 100,240 yuan/ton on January 9th to 103,175 yuan/ton on January 12th, an increase of 2,935 yuan/ton; the premium of flat - copper rose from - 80 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased from 88,100 yuan/ton to 89,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased from 6,333 yuan/ton to 7,298 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME and SHFE registered and unregistered copper inventory remained unchanged at 138,975 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 145,342 tons to 180,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 2,760 tons to 469,921 tons, and the domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 353,000 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi aluminum price increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,320 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price increased from 24,100 yuan/ton to 24,390 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased from 23,700 yuan/ton to 23,950 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 497,825 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 6,501 tons to 97,413 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 129,818 tons to 143,828 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 730,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 14,000 tons to 144,000 tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates increased from 146,000 yuan/ton to 151,000 yuan/ton. The price of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan increased from 13,200 yuan/ton to 13,300 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered nickel inventory remained unchanged at 284,790 tons; SHFE nickel warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased from 45,544 tons to 46,650 tons. The social nickel inventory increased by 2,126 tons to 61,046 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 18 tons to 855 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 23,880 yuan/ton to 24,030 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The price of SMM 0 zinc increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,140 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 111,500 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 3,533 tons to 35,341 tons, and the LME registered warrants decreased by 1,050 tons to 98,775 tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 349,000 yuan/ton to 364,320 yuan/ton, a 4.4% increase. The SMM spot price increased from 349,750 yuan/ton to 368,550 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE tin inventory decreased by 1,001 tons to 6,935 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 5,415 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 96 tons to 6,333 tons, and the LME registered warrants increased by 10 tons to 5,290 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report provides charts on spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals, covering the historical data from 2019 - 2026, but no specific data analysis in the text for these charts [13][14][20][26][32][39]. 4. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, mainly researching aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, focusing on lithium and nickel. They have rich experience and have won many industry awards [46][47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [2][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are rising, with the rebar futures contract closing at 3165 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. Spot prices are also up, and the inventory of building materials is decreasing while that of hot-rolled coils is increasing. The market is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Iron ore prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 1%. Supply is decreasing, while demand is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Coking coal prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 1238 yuan/ton, up 3.55%. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Coke prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 1770 yuan/ton, up 1.26%. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Manganese silicon prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 5930 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. Supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing, but the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Ferrosilicon prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 5698 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing, but the price is expected to oscillate [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2605 closed at 3165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/0.67% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and the national building materials trading volume was 105,800 tons. The inventory of building materials decreased by 17,400 tons to 2.9635 million tons, while that of hot-rolled coils increased by 0.98% to 2.0878 million tons. The price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - **Iron ore**: The futures contract i2605 closed at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/1% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, while that from other countries increased, and the global supply decreased slightly. The demand increased, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Coking coal**: The futures contract 2605 closed at 1238 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/3.55% from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. The spot price in Shanxi increased, and the price at the Ganjimao Port increased. The supply is stable, and the demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The futures contract 2605 closed at 1770 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/1.26% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. The spot price at the port increased. The supply is stable, and the demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The futures contract closed at 5930 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. The spot price in Ningxia increased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased during the steel procurement period. The cost increased slightly, and the inventory decreased from a high level. The price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures contract closed at 5698 yuan/ton, up 1.21% from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. The spot price in Inner Mongolia increased. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand increased during the steel procurement period. The cost decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The price is expected to oscillate [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including steel, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [3] - It also provides data on profits and price spreads between different commodities, such as the rebar futures profit, long-process profit, short-process profit, hot-rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, and coking coal to coke ratio [3] 3. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - month spreads, inter - commodity spreads, and rebar profits of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [5][15][23][39][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 12, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.75%. The position decreased by 827 lots to 238,900 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan remained stable at 9,628 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 95 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 49,995 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 2.89%. The position decreased by 2,113 lots to 48,830 lots. The price of N-type re - fed polysilicon material by Baichuan remained stable at 55,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 55,000 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 5,005 yuan/ton. Large factories in Xinjiang have entered the maintenance period. Silicon factories are hedging at high prices and actively selling to spot - futures merchants. The manufacturers' inventory is gradually transferred to the intermediate links, and the hidden inventory increases. Recently, the cost side has shown minor fluctuations. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, maintaining a volatile situation. There have been frequent news of anti - involution and industry self - discipline. Due to the pressure of logistics shutdown in Xinjiang before the Spring Festival, the production areas have started pre - holiday rush operations, resulting in concentrated warrant registrations, and the overheated speculative sentiment has cooled down. The upside premium space of polysilicon is limited. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 40 yuan/ton to 8,755 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 8,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 40 yuan to 95 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,888, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 3,285 tons to 54,440 tons, the Huangpu Port inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, the Tianjin Port inventory remained at 80,000 tons, the Kunming Port inventory remained at 52,000 tons, the industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 267,850 tons, and the total social inventory of industrial silicon remained at 457,850 tons. [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 1,305 yuan/ton to 49,995 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 3,530 yuan/ton to 48,725 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 55,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 1,305 yuan to 5,005 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,430, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 132,900 tons, the polysilicon factory inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 311,800 tons, and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 4,000 tons to 312,000 tons. [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market increased by 300 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton, the raw rubber price increased by 300 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, the 107 - glue price increased by 300 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton, and the dimethyl silicone oil price increased by 1,300 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton. [4] 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [6][9][11] 3.2.2 Downstream Finished Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [14][16][18] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts show the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory and inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC. [20][21][23] 3.2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloy. [26][28][30] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. Wang Heng mainly focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi mainly focuses on the research of lithium and nickel. [36][37]

光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.82%，报收 64.94 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下降 0.75%， | 震荡 | | | 报收 14625 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 31040 手至 81.79 万手，棉花 3128B 现 | | | | 货价格指数 15365 元/吨，较前一日下降 145 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期海外地缘 | | | | 扰动较多，美联储 1 月降息概率仍有摇摆，美元指数在 98-99 区间震荡，基本面 | | | | 变化有限，美棉震荡为主。国内市场方面，郑棉持续减仓下行，市场分歧加剧， | | | 棉花 | 基本面有了一些改变。受原料成本增加影响，纺织企业生产利润压缩，数据显示 | | | | 纺织企业开机率已经有一定程度下降。库存方面，本年度纺企补库动作提前，TTEB | | | | 数据显示，纺企原料库存可用天数约 31.5 天，原料库存相对充裕，棉花价格处于 | | | | 相对高位情况下，纺企采购观望情绪渐浓。综合来看，短期 ...

Group 1: Research Views - Urea futures prices were firm and fluctuating on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,783 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.22%. The spot market started to decline, with the market prices in Shandong and Henan regions at 1,730 yuan/ton and 1,740 yuan/ton respectively, down 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton day-on-day. The industry's supply had a narrow fluctuation, with the daily output of the urea industry at 202,000 tons, a slight increase of 18,000 tons day-on-day. There was still an expectation of further increase in the future. The demand sentiment remained cautious with obvious regional differentiation. The daily sales-to-output ratio in the mainstream regions ranged from 10% - 20% at the low end to 80% - 120% at the high end, and there was an individual region with a ratio of 200%. In the short term, there was a game between supply and demand in the urea market. The result of the Indian tender in the international market was unclear, which still had an impact on the domestic market. The futures market had reached a stage high, and the room for further increase was limited. It was recommended to treat it with a high-level fluctuation and consolidation mindset in the short term. As the Spring Festival approached, market transactions would become dull, and supply and demand pressure might gradually emerge. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of urea supply, the atmosphere of spot transactions, the final result of the Indian tender, and the overall sentiment of the futures market. The view was "fluctuating" [2]. - Soda ash futures prices were fluctuating strongly on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,239 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.31%. The quotes of spot manufacturers were mostly stable, while the quotes of traders continued to fluctuate following the sentiment of the futures market. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe region was 1,189 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton day-on-day. Fundamentally, large - scale plants in Henan and Inner Mongolia had increased their loads and resumed production, and the industry's operating rate had increased to 86.82%, with room for further improvement. The demand sentiment became more cautious, and some downstream enterprises' acceptance of the current price decreased, and their purchasing willingness weakened. In addition, there was still an expectation of water storage in the production lines of downstream float glass, which further suppressed the rigid demand level of soda ash. Overall, the soda ash futures market faced a game between fundamentals and external factors, and it was mainly in a short - term fluctuation and consolidation state. As the Spring Festival approached, the decline in rigid demand and the accumulation of enterprise inventories would continue to put pressure on the market. A bearish mindset was recommended from a medium - term perspective. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of new production capacity output, changes in downstream production capacity, macro and policy dynamics, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market. The view was "fluctuating" [2]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated widely on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,143 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.09%. The spot price strengthened again, with the average price of the domestic float glass market at 1,096 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton day-on-day. Recently, glass production lines had been continuously shut down for cold - repair, and the daily melting capacity in production in the industry was stable at around 150,000 tons. There were still plans for some production lines to undergo cold - repair before the Spring Festival, and the supply support expectation still existed. The follow - up sentiment on the demand side remained positive, and the daily sales - to - output ratio in the mainstream regions mostly remained above 100%, with an individual region at 90%. In the short term, the low supply and high - level spot transactions of glass continued to support the price - increasing mentality of glass manufacturers, but there was still a contradiction between supply and demand in the glass market, and the futures market mainly fluctuated widely. As the Spring Festival approached, the rigid demand might gradually decline, and the fundamentals would still be under pressure at that time. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production capacity, the strength and sustainability of spot transactions, and the overall trend of macro and commodities. The view was "fluctuating" [2]. Group 2: Market Information Urea - According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, on January 12, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 13,200, an increase of 350 from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 100 [5]. - According to Longzhong data, on January 12, the daily output of the urea industry was 202,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate on that day was 85.81%, a 4.55 - percentage - point increase compared with 81.26% in the same period last year [5]. - On January 12, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,730 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), Henan 1,740 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Anhui 1,740 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Jiangsu 1,740 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), and Shanxi 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, on January 12, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 4,220, a decrease of 700 from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 878; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 1,876, an increase of 200 from the previous trading day [7]. - On January 12, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were: North China, light soda ash 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,250 yuan/ton; Central China, light soda ash 1,130 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,230 yuan/ton; East China, light soda ash 1,160 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,230 yuan/ton; South China, light soda ash 1,350 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,400 yuan/ton; Southwest, light soda ash 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,300 yuan/ton; Northwest, light soda ash 890 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 860 yuan/ton [7]. - According to Longzhong data, on January 12, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.82%, compared with 84.7% on the previous working day [8]. - According to Longzhong data, on January 12, the average price of the float glass market was 1,096 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the daily output was 150,000 tons per day, unchanged day - on - day [8]. Group 3: Chart Analysis - The report presented multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources were iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][12][14][18][20][22][23]. Group 4: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has long been focused on the sugar industry research. She has participated in major projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the writing of series books of the China Futures Association. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Best Futures Analyst selection of Futures Daily and Securities Times, the "Senior Senior Analyst of Sugar" title from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and the "Best Chief Futures Analyst of Agricultural and Sideline Products" title in the 17th China Best Futures Analyst Selection of Securities Times and Futures Daily in 2024. Her futures practice qualification number is F0306200, and her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0000082 [25]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of Accounting and Finance from the University of Bristol, UK, is currently an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has participated in large - scale projects and topics of the China Futures Association and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and has won awards in authoritative media and competitions such as the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Futures Daily, and Securities Times. She won the honors of "Senior Senior Analyst of Soda Ash" and "Senior Analyst of Urea" from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from 2024 to 2025. Her futures practice qualification number is F3067502, and her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0014869 [25]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a finance master from Yunnan University, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferro - alloy. He has participated in the writing of relevant topics of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has long published articles on futures and spot websites. He won the "Senior Analyst of Textiles" title from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 and the "Best Agricultural and Sideline Product Futures Analyst" title in 2025. His futures practice qualification number is F03099994, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0021057 [25][26]. Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [28]