1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock index: Bullish [1] - Treasury bond: Sideways [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market rebounded after hitting bottom, with the three major indexes rising slightly. The current market is mainly pricing in long - term policy expectations, and the impact of current fundamental factors is limited. In the long run, the Fed is likely to start a rate - cut cycle in September, and the A - share rate - cut channel may also open, which is beneficial to long - term stock index futures. The implementation of the child - rearing subsidy system is expected to boost inflation through fiscal support. The liquidity market is expected to continue, showing obvious structural characteristics and accelerating sector rotation [1]. - On Monday, treasury bond futures closed up. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan. The short - term signal of the central bank's care for the capital market is obvious. With the current fundamentals being a mix of bullish and bearish factors, the bond market shows no obvious turning - point signal and will continue its sideways trend [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market had a bottom - up rebound, with more stocks falling than rising, and the trading volume was 2.14 trillion yuan. The August economic data showed that demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment declined slightly month - on - month. The implementation of the child - rearing subsidy system is a significant policy, and it is expected that the central bank will purchase national bonds to support fiscal policies, promoting inflation recovery. The market liquidity is expected to continue, with accelerated sector rotation [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Monday, treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising by 0.22%, 0.20%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 240.5 billion yuan of 7 - day and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan. The short - term signal of the central bank's care for the capital market is obvious. The current fundamentals are a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the bond market will continue its sideways trend [1][2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 22, 2025, compared with September 19, 2025, IH rose by 9.6 points (0.33%), IF by 19.6 points (0.44%), IC by 29.2 points (0.42%), and IM by 39.4 points (0.55%). Among stock indexes, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose by 12.4 points (0.43%), and the CSI 300 rose by 20.7 points (0.46%), the CSI 500 by 54.8 points (0.76%), and the CSI 1000 by 51.3 points (0.69%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 22, 2025, compared with September 19, 2025, TS rose by 0.034 points (0.03%), TF by 0.095 points (0.09%), T by 0.14 points (0.13%), and TL by 0.33 points (0.29%) [3]. Market News - At the press conference, the central bank governor stated that the conference was about the development of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan period and did not involve short - term policy adjustments [4]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as their monthly basis trends [5][6][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the historical trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes historical data on the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][26]. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [30]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on stock index futures, including macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index financial report analysis, and market capital - flow tracking [30].

Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the stock market on September 22, including the performance of major indices, the impact of sector movements on these indices, the basis of stock index futures, and the points difference and annualized cost of futures contract roll - over. Summary by Section Index Trends - On September 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to close at 3828.58 points with a trading volume of 941.8 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to close at 13157.97 points with a trading volume of 1179.683 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.69% with a trading volume of 440.515 billion yuan, opening at 7457.89, closing at 7489.48, with a high of 7489.48 and a low of 7418.46 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.76% with a trading volume of 421.916 billion yuan, opening at 7182.89, closing at 7225.13, with a high of 7225.86 and a low of 7143.08 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.43% with a trading volume of 156.401 billion yuan, opening at 2911.02, closing at 2922.18, with a high of 2929.52 and a low of 2901.12 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.46% with a trading volume of 563.149 billion yuan, opening at 4512.03, closing at 4522.61, with a high of 4523.87 and a low of 4487.13 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 51.29 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, computers, and machinery having a significant upward pull on the index [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 54.78 points from the previous close, with electronics, computers, and power equipment sectors having a significant upward pull [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 20.69 points from the previous close, with electronics, computers, and non - bank finance sectors having an upward pull, while food and beverage, and banking sectors had a downward pull [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 12.44 points from the previous close, with electronics, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors having an upward pull, while food and beverage, and banking sectors had a downward pull [3]. Basis of Stock Index Futures and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 95.65, IM01 had - 178.8, IM02 had - 260.61, and IM03 had - 471.29 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 81.87, IC01 had - 148.19, IC02 had - 210.53, and IC03 had - 380.13 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 14.2, IF01 had - 27.64, IF02 had - 39.11, and IF03 had - 64.45 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.33, IH01 had 0.79, IH02 had 1.54, and IH03 had 4.06 [12]. Points Difference in Futures Contract Roll - over and Annualized Costs - Detailed data on the points difference in contract roll - over and their annualized costs are provided for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [23][25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The investment growth rate of the steel industry has declined across the board, leading to an increased expectation of policy easing. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the weakness on the demand side being more evident. It is expected that the short - term steel plate will fluctuate within a narrow range [4][166][167] - For iron ore, the molten iron output continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the demand situation of steel products [169] Summary by Directory Steel Products Price - This week, black - series commodities rose across the board, with coking coal and coke prices leading the increase. The increase of rebar prices was greater than that of hot - rolled coils. In the international market, hot - rolled coil prices in the US, EU, Japan, and India decreased slightly, while most other markets showed a stable - to - rising trend. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as various price spreads, changed to different extents [6][7] Supply - In August, the daily average output of crude steel and pig iron continued to decline. In the current week, the weekly output of rebar decreased, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products decreased. The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and molten iron output increased slightly, while the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate decreased [42][50][66] Demand - In August, the investment growth rate in the real estate and infrastructure sectors continued to decline, while the growth rate of automobile sales increased, and the growth rate of excavator sales decreased. The national building materials trading volume, cement mill operating rate, and rebar apparent demand increased, while the hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased [81][88][92] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.13 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 137.51 million tons. The total rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 184.82 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.67 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 43.74 million tons [124][129][142] Profit - This week, the on - screen profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed, the profits of long - process steelmaking increased, and the losses of short - process steel mills widened [149][151] Trading Data - This week, the positions and settled funds of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, while the trading volume decreased slightly [152] Options - Data on rebar options, including historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and put - call ratios of positions and trading volumes, are presented [156][160] Iron Ore Price - This week, the on - screen price of iron ore increased, and the closing price of the main contract i2601 was 807.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices at ports showed mixed trends, with the spread between high - and medium - grade ores widening and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores narrowing [171][177][182] Supply - The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 860,000 tons compared with the previous period [170] Demand - The molten iron output increased to 2.4102 million tons, and the pig iron output in August was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [170] Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.8168 million tons, a decrease of 744,400 tons compared with the previous period. The steel mill inventory increased by 3.16 million tons to 93.09 million tons, and the consumption ratio of imported ore inventory was 31.2 [170] Profit - The profits of long - process rebar production increased, while the profits of short - process steel mills continued to decline [170]

Report Overview - Report Title: "光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报" - Date: September 19, 2025 - Report Type: Daily monitoring report on iron ore basis and spreads 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - I05 closed at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I09 closed at 759.0 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I01 closed at 800.0 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. 1.2 Contract Spreads - The spread between I05 and I09 was 19.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I09 and I01 was -41.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I01 and I05 was 21.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Basis Analysis 2.1 Basis Data - The basis of various iron ore varieties showed different changes. For example, the basis of FMG mixed powder increased by 7 yuan to 88 yuan/ton, while the basis of five - mine standard powder decreased by 2 yuan to 44 yuan/ton [5]. 2.2 Basis Charts - Charts for different basis targets such as Brazilian powder ore, Australian medium - grade powder ore, Australian low - grade powder ore, and domestic ore were presented [7][8][9]. 3. Adjustment of Deliverable Brands and Rules - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Concentrate) were added with a brand premium of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [10]. - The brand premiums of existing varieties were adjusted. Only PB powder, BRBF, and Carajas powder have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 yuan/ton [10]. - The allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators for substitutes was adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium of iron element indicators was introduced [10]. - Four new deliverable brands (Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Five - mine Standard Powder, SP10 Powder) were added, and their brand premiums are 0 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Variety Spreads 4.1 Variety Spread Data - For example, the spread between PB block and PB powder increased by 3 yuan to 134 yuan/ton, while the spread between PB powder and mixed powder decreased by 5 yuan to 37 yuan/ton [12]. 4.2 Variety Spread Charts - Charts for different types of variety spreads such as block - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder ore spreads, and others were provided [13][14][15][17][19]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. With the decline in rebar production, the inventory turned from rising to falling, and the apparent demand rebounded. However, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market's expectation of further policy easing weakened, affecting the rebar sentiment. It is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures market also had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply increased, while the demand was affected by factors such as the change in the number of blast furnace overhauls and production resumptions. The inventory situation was mixed. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market had a wide - range oscillation. The supply was tight, and the downstream coking enterprises had different procurement attitudes. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market had a wide - range oscillation. The raw material price rebounded, and the profit of coking enterprises shrank. The demand was supported by high hot - metal production, but the terminal demand was weak. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures market showed an oscillatory trend. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was limited. The market sentiment was boosted by news, but the sustainability was not strong. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market also showed an oscillatory trend. The production was at a relatively high level, and the demand was not strong. The market sentiment was disturbed, and the fundamentals had limited driving force. It is expected to continue oscillating [3]. Group 3: Summary by Section Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (0.66%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The spot price dropped slightly, and the trading volume declined. The production, inventory, and apparent demand data had certain changes. The Fed's interest - rate cut affected the market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 was 800 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (0.56%), with a decrease in positions. The port spot prices of some varieties fell. The supply increased, and the demand was affected by blast furnace operations. The inventory situation was complex [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of coking coal 2601 contract was 1203.5 yuan/ton, down 29.5 yuan/ton (2.39%), with a decrease in positions. The supply was tight due to mine accidents, and the downstream procurement was different [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of coke 2601 contract was 1709 yuan/ton, down 25.5 yuan/ton (1.47%), with a decrease in positions. The spot price in the port market rose. The raw material price rebounded, and the profit of coking enterprises shrank [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 5970 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, with an increase in positions. The market price was stable. The supply was high, and the demand was limited. There were news about eliminating backward production capacity, and the steel - tender price was still under negotiation [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 5756 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, with an increase in positions. The market price was basically stable. The production was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various commodities (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) were provided, along with the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Price Spreads**: Information on the profit (such as rebar's盘面利润, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price spreads (such as卷螺差,螺矿比, etc.) of different commodities was presented, including the latest values and their changes [4]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][10][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the basis of the main contracts of various commodities over different time periods [17][18][19][20][23][24][25][26]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the spreads of different inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities [28][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][42]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts presented the spreads between different commodities (such as主力合约卷螺差,主力合约螺矿比, etc.) [44][45][46][48]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the profit of rebar (盘面利润, long - process profit, short - process profit) over different time periods [49][50][52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. After the Fed's rate cut, the Bank of England maintained its interest rate, and central banks were cautious about further rate cuts. LME copper inventory decreased by 900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2144 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 822 tons, and BC copper decreased by 2229 tons. Downstream demand was weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. Considering policy expectations and the peak demand season, copper prices may be viewed as relatively strong, as a decline could prompt downstream restocking [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2932 yuan/ton, a 0.54% decline. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2510 closing at 20800 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. Aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Alumina's short - term decline space is limited as it approaches the cost line, and aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking, adding to the peak - season expectations. With the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices are supported, and aluminum alloy is expected to continue to be strong [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.71% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.63%. LME nickel inventory decreased by 18 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable, stainless - steel inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new - energy sector, demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply was tight. Due to previous supply disruptions in Indonesia and price increases in nickel - iron and MHP, nickel prices may face correction pressure, and overseas macro conditions need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors led to increased market volatility, and downstream demand was weak. Considering policy and demand, copper prices may remain strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices were near the cost line, and aluminum ingot de - stocking supported the market. Aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel**: After a rapid price increase, nickel prices may correct, and attention should be paid to overseas macro factors [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On September 18, 2025, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 620 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventory decreased by 900 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 822 tons. The active - contract import loss was 89.9 yuan/ton, a significant change from the previous day [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2675 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 9843 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased by 110 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 30125 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 4421 tons. The active - contract import loss was 1541 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 18 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons. The active - contract import loss was 1381 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price decreased by 0.9%. LME inventory decreased by 150 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The active - contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price decreased by 1.0%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased by 124 tons. The active - contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum - smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc - smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and an intermediate gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience and has won multiple industry awards [47]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to experience a slightly weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with limited downside space and the need for stronger drivers to break through previous support. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and the opening price of new cotton [2]. - Sugar is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term due to concerns about increased production and high supply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE cotton fell 0.49% to 66.92 cents per pound, and CF601 dropped 1.08% to 13,765 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 10,790 lots to 502,100 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,890 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but there were differences in the dot - plot's prediction of the future interest - rate cut path. The US dollar index strengthened, causing the price of US cotton to decline. Domestically, the market focuses on market sentiment and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton. This year's new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, with the expected opening price of machine - picked cotton at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram and the processing cost around 14,000 yuan per ton. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down, but the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles increased by 3.1%. The operating load of downstream textile enterprises has improved seasonally, providing some support to the demand side [2]. - **Sugar**: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 62,700 tons year - on - year. From January to August 2025, China imported 2.6121 million tons of sugar, an increase of 121,000 tons or 4.86% year - on - year. As of August in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 4.0739 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 277,200 tons or 6.37% year - on - year. Spot prices have been lowered. After the release of Brazil's sugar production and sales data in August, concerns in the market subsided, and the certainty of increased production became stronger, putting pressure on futures prices. In China, the combination of multiple sugar supplies and high imports has weighed on market sentiment, causing prices to fall below previous lows [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 40 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract basis was 1,554 yuan, up 134 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan, and the national average was 15,319 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 24 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract basis was 451 yuan, up 45 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5,840 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Market Information - On September 18, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 177 to 4,438, with 12 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 18, the arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 15,249 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,309 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,344 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,429 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 18, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.1, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.3, down 0.1; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 52.8, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 29.2, down 0.2 [4]. - On September 18, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,840 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [4]. - On September 18, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 359 to 10,629, with 0 valid forecasts [5]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including those showing the closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar futures, with data spanning from 2021 - 2025 [7][15][18]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won multiple awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass. She has also won several awards [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He won the title of senior analyst in textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Palm Oil: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating and slightly bullish [1][2] - Pigs: Oscillating and slightly bearish [2] Core Viewpoints - Corn futures' November contract shows a technical rebound after continuous decline, with the spot market facing increased pressure from new corn listings. Short - term attention is on whether the contract can break through the price low in mid - August, and the medium - term operation follows a bearish idea [1]. - CBOT soybean meal and soybean prices decline due to a stronger dollar and US harvest pressure. Domestic two - meal prices continue to fall, and the strategy is to participate in the short - term [1]. - BMD palm oil falls following the surrounding market. The domestic oil market is weak, and the strategy is to bet on increased volatility [1]. - The egg futures' 2511 contract oscillates with a slight rebound at the end of the session. The spot price corrects after a continuous rebound. The supply - side pressure on egg prices may ease in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [1][2]. - The pig futures' 2511 contract continues to decline. The spot price also drops, and the demand is weak. In the short term, the pig price may remain weak, but it may be supported by increased demand as the temperature drops [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The November contract rebounds technically after a continuous decline. The spot market in the production area expects an increase in new corn listings after mid - September, and the price in the Liaoning production area weakens. In the North China region, the price continues to be weak, and the price in the sales area is temporarily stable. The short - term is to beware of a rebound after a sharp decline, and the medium - term is bearish [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fall due to a stronger dollar and harvest pressure. The export sales of US soybeans meet expectations, and domestic two - meal prices reach a one - and - a - half - month low. The strategy is short - term participation [1]. - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil falls following the surrounding market. High - frequency data shows a decrease in exports. The domestic oil market is weak, and the strategy is to bet on increased volatility [1]. - **Eggs**: The 2511 contract oscillates with a slight rebound, and the spot price corrects after a continuous rebound. The supply - side pressure on egg prices may ease in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price drops. The demand is weak, and the short - term pig price may remain weak. It may be supported by increased demand as the temperature drops [2]. Market Information - From September 14th to 17th, Liu Huanxin led a team to investigate grain and material reserve work in Heilongjiang, emphasizing the importance of grain storage and logistics facilities projects [3]. - Zhengshang Institute cancels the designated delivery warehouse qualification of Orient Group Grain and Oil Food Co., Ltd. for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [3]. - In August, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; soybean oil imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%; rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7% [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: It includes the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][6][7][11][15] - **Contract Basis**: It includes the basis of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][14][17][18][24] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and achievements [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many honors [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant experience and honors [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.74% to 72,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 300 yuan/ton to 73,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 300 yuan/ton to 71,200 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 74,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 120 tons to 39,354 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased 400 tons to 20,363 tons. The output of lithium extraction from spodumene increased 160 tons to 12,869 tons, from lepidolite increased 130 tons to 2,860 tons, from salt lakes increased 90 tons to 2,745 tons, and from recycling increased 20 tons to 1,889 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased 158 tons to 166 tons, and the inventory decreased 16 tons to 17,454 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased 630 tons to 78,143 tons, and the inventory increased 775 tons to 96,217 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased 981 tons to 137,531 tons, with downstream inventory increasing 1,216 tons to 59,495 tons, intermediate link inventory decreasing 440 tons to 43,580 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing 1,757 tons to 34,456 tons [3]. - Under the expectation of project复产, the long - position logic has been weakened. However, from the current fundamentals, inventory destocking has accelerated. Before the actual复产 of the projects, in the context of strong demand and pre - holiday stocking for the National Day, the downstream procurement demand will support the price. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi needs to be continuously monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 72,880 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 72,620 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 858 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,105 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,815 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 6,025 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,125 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [5]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 73,450 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 71,200 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 74,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 78,970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 68,960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 56,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was 550 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 7,536 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased slightly, and the prices of lithium iron phosphate products also increased slightly, while the prices of some products such as manganese - acid lithium and cobalt - acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Batteries**: The prices of most lithium battery products remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight increases [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][12][13][14][15][16]. - **Price Spreads**: There are charts showing the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: There are charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][26][28][29][30][31][32]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [33][34][35][36]. - **Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 2025 to September 2025 [38][39][40][41]. - **Production Costs**: There is a chart showing the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42][43]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous and new energy research and have won many awards and recognition [46][47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices are expected to continue the range - bound trend with a slightly weak short - term trend. The supply has increased, demand is weak, inventory has accumulated, and there may be further price cuts before the National Day. Attention should be paid to double - festival stocking, exports, international market dynamics, and macro - sentiment [1]. - Soda ash futures prices are short - term weak with limited fundamental drivers. The market will fluctuate significantly following industry capacity changes and external factors. Attention should be paid to new capacity implementation, anti - involution policy implementation progress, and macro - sentiment [1]. - Glass futures prices will enter a wide - range oscillation phase in the short term with weak intraday sentiment. There may be phased performance following macro - sentiment, policies, and peak - season demand. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, overall commodity market trends, and glass demand [1]. Summary by Catalog Research Viewpoints - **Urea**: On Thursday, the urea futures price was weakly volatile, with the main 01 contract closing at 1670 yuan/ton, down 0.65% day - on - day. The spot market declined slightly. The supply increased with a daily output of 19.97 million tons, up 0.41 million tons day - on - day. Demand was weak, with the sales - to - production ratio in the mainstream areas mostly between 10% - 30%. The enterprise inventory increased by 2.88%. The overall supply - demand situation is weak [1]. - **Soda ash**: On Thursday, the soda ash futures price was weak, with the main 01 contract closing at 1306 yuan/ton, down 2.03%. The spot market was basically stable. The industry's operating rate decreased by 1.76 percentage points, and the output dropped by 2.02%. The demand was stable, and the enterprise inventory decreased by 2.33% compared to last Thursday but increased by 0.49% compared to Monday [1]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures price was weak, with the main 01 contract closing at 1208 yuan/ton, down 2.19% slightly. The spot market continued to warm up. The daily melting volume was stable at 16.02 million tons. The demand was relatively active, and the glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10%, but the demand pattern did not change significantly [1]. Market Information - **Urea**: On September 18, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 8188, down 80 from the previous trading day, with 49 valid forecasts. The daily output was 19.97 million tons, up 0.41 million tons from the previous day and 0.31 million tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 85.34%, down 2.85 percentage points from the same period last year. The enterprise inventory as of September 17 was 116.53 million tons, up 3.26 million tons or 2.88% from last week [4][5]. - **Soda ash and Glass**: On September 18, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 35, with 5770 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 754, down 286 from the previous trading day. The soda ash industry's operating rate for the week ending September 18 was 85.53%, down 1.76 percentage points week - on - week. The output was 74.57 million tons, down 1.54 million tons or 2.02% week - on - week. The glass market average price on September 18 was 1166 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton day - on - day. The industry's daily output was 16.02 million tons, unchanged day - on - day. The glass sample enterprise inventory as of September 18 was 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 1.10% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year [7][8]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the spot price trends of urea and soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][20]. Research Team Introduction - The research team members include Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar industry research; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for urea, soda ash, and glass futures research; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst engaged in the fundamental research of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].