Report Summary 1. Index Trends - On November 27th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% to close at 3875.26 points, with a trading volume of 698.519 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to close at 12875.19 points, with a trading volume of 1011.275 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.12% with a trading volume of 365.626 billion yuan. The CSI 500 Index fell by 0.2% with a trading volume of 253.013 billion yuan. The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.02% with a trading volume of 105.106 billion yuan. The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.05% with a trading volume of 417.79 billion yuan [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - For the CSI 1000, sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and communication pulled the index up, while pharmaceutical biology, computer, and media sectors pulled it down [3]. - For the CSI 500, basic chemicals, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals sectors pulled the index up, while media, electronics, and computer sectors pulled it down [3]. - For the CSI 300, banks, basic chemicals, and public utilities sectors pulled the index up, while computer, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment sectors pulled it down [3]. - For the SSE 50, banks, basic chemicals, and coal sectors pulled the index up, while communication, machinery, and pharmaceutical biology sectors pulled it down [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - The average daily basis for IM00 was -72.04, IM01 was -143.98, IM02 was -294.56, and IM03 was -530.53. For IC00, it was -47.73; IC01, -103.75; IC02, -213.96; IC03, -420.19. For IF00, it was -16.24; IF01, -31.18; IF02, -48.51; IF03, -95.63. For IH00, it was -4.95; IH01, -9.43; IH02, -10.66; IH03, -19.69 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures at different time intervals (15 - minute means) are provided, including specific point differences and cost calculations [23][25][26].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.59%，报收 64.61 美分/磅，CF601 环比持平，报收 13625 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11839 手至 54.06 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14475 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。国际市场方面，宏观层面是近期市场关注重点，随着 | | | | 美国经济数据、报告陆续恢复发布，美联储 12 月降息 25bp 概率逐渐升温，目前 | | | | 已至八成以上。昨日美元指数震荡走弱，美棉期价重心小幅上移。基本面方面， | | | | USDA11 月报公布后，市场仍缺乏新的锚点，美棉出口周报缺口时间较长，整体 | | | | 驱动因素有限，震荡为主。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉主力合约减仓 1 万余手，仍 | | | | 在当前压力位震荡。我们认为，当前郑棉上下方驱动均相对有限。当 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周三，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓下行，资金向 2603 合约转移。当日，玉米 1 月合 | | | | 约冲高回落，3、5 月合约继续上行。现货市场中，产区、港口玉米报价上涨。 | | | | 东北产区玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，从各地价格上涨情况来看，辽宁、吉 | | | | 林价格上涨幅度最为剧烈，黑龙江跟涨情况稍显一般，价格持续上涨，目前农户 | | | | 仍较为惜售。 昨日华北地区玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，山东深加工企业早间门前 | | | | 剩余车辆再次突破 1000 台以上，部分深加工企业价格窄幅下调 10-20 元/吨。河 | 震荡上涨 | | | 北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面 | | | | 仍偏强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户售粮心态一般，上 | | | | 量一般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料企业维持观望心态 | | | | 滚动建库。技术上，周三玉米 2601 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约 2605 合约涨 1.45%至 96340 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价 上涨 750 元/吨至 92800 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 750 元/吨至 90400 元/吨，电池级氢氧化 锂（粗颗粒）上涨 150 元/吨至 81330 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 435 吨至 27050 吨。 2. 供应端， 周度产量环比增加 585 吨至 22130 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 440 吨至 13344 吨，锂云 母产量环比增加 30 吨至 2971 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 80 吨至 3635 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 35 吨 至 2180 吨；10 月碳酸锂进口环比增加 22%吨至 2.4 万吨，其中自阿根廷进口环比增加 5%至 0.7 万 吨，自智利进口环比增加 37%至 1.5 万吨。需求端，三元材料周度产量环比增加 118 吨至 19002 吨， 周度库存环比增加 79 吨至 19290 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Wide - amplitude oscillation [1] - Soda Ash: Wide - amplitude oscillation [1] - Glass: Continuous rebound [1] Core Views - **Urea**: On Wednesday, the urea futures price fluctuated strongly. The spot market in some areas declined slightly, with supply at a high level and demand improving. Enterprise inventories continued to fall, strengthening the price - holding mentality. The international market has uncertain factors. The futures market is expected to continue a strong - oscillation trend [1]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the soda ash futures price was firm and oscillated. The spot market quotation was stable, with supply stable and demand improving. Enterprise inventories continued to fall, strengthening the price - holding mentality. The futures price will continue a low - level wide - amplitude fluctuation trend [1]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the glass futures price fluctuated strongly. The spot market stopped falling, with supply stable and demand improving. Inventories decreased, and the futures market may continue to rebound in the short term, but a market reversal requires more positive factors [1]. Market Information Urea - On November 26, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 7,390, an increase of 88 from the previous trading day, with 820 valid forecasts [4]. - On November 26, the daily output of the urea industry was 203,400 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from the previous working day, and an increase of 11,700 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. - On November 26, the small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1,630 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), 1,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 1,620 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) respectively [4]. - As of the week of November 26, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons (- 5.10%) from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On November 26, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 4,710, an increase of 1,058 from the previous trading day, with 1,401 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On November 26, the soda ash spot prices in different regions varied. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton and the heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - On November 26, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.26%, the same as the previous working day [8]. - On November 26, the average price of the float glass market was 1,091 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the industry's daily output was 157,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and open interest of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the futures price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][11][16][17]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-11-27 一、指数走势 11 月 26 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.15%，收于 3864.18 点，成交额 7010.2 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 1.02%，收于 12907.83 点，成交额 10823.27 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.02%，成交额 3769.64 亿元，其中开盘价 7236.66，收盘价 7248.45，当日最高价 7307.2，最低价 7225.09； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.15%，成交额 2748.58 亿元，其中开盘价 6946.08，收盘价 6965.05，当日最高价 7024.88，最低价 6936.88； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.61%，成交额 4273.61 亿元，其中开盘价 4490.2，收盘价 4517.63，当日最高价 4538.14，最低价 4485.7； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.12%，成交额 972.58 亿元，其中开盘价 2969.78，收盘价 2971.8，当日最高价 2979.98，最低价 2968.02。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 点评 26 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 9020 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.28%，持仓 减仓 3390 手至 26.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9727 元/吨，较上一交易 日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8950 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 55 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 55895 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.93%，持仓 增仓 13965 手至 14.3 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 52250 元/吨，最低 交割品硅料价格在 52250 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 7240 元/吨。西南工 业硅厂扩大减产，但北方整体供给稳定，积极向期现商出货，导致价格未 修复到西南硅厂顺利出货位置。工业硅短期难见趋势，延续震荡调整。因 硅片订单大幅收缩，二三线经历阶段恐慌性降价，但硅料挺价意愿强烈。 当前市场对于多晶硅产能收储并不乐观，叠加终端需求收缩给予硅料端有 价无市压力。当前资金集中在近月挤仓和 1-5 正套上，短期期现持续分歧 且波动较高，建议谨慎为上。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EV ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be narrow - range consolidation. The production of building materials has declined, inventory reduction has increased, and apparent demand has slightly decreased. The current market is in the off - season, and there is insufficient upward drive for prices [1]. - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be volatile. The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil have decreased, iron - making water production has declined, and the inventory of imported iron ore at ports has decreased [1]. - The short - term trend of coking coal is expected to be wide - range volatility. The supply shortage has eased, downstream procurement is cautious, and coal mines face shipping pressure [1]. - The short - term trend of coke is expected to be wide - range volatility. The cost of coke enterprises has improved, inventory is accumulating, and steel mills' demand for coke has decreased [1]. - The short - term trend of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is expected to be volatile. The raw material cost trends are divergent, the overall fundamentals have limited drivers, and the inventory pressure is large [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 100,000 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and the national building materials trading volume was 93,200 tons. This week, the national building materials production decreased by 120,400 tons to 3.6401 million tons, social inventory decreased by 162,100 tons to 5.9671 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 94,400 tons to 3.3191 million tons, and the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 47,700 tons to 3.8966 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 797 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 200,000 lots and a decrease of 17,000 lots in positions. The prices of mainstream port spot varieties showed a mixed trend. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, iron - making water production decreased by 6,000 tons to 2.3628 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate decreased by 1.3% to 37.67%. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 million tons, a decrease of 779,900 tons from the previous period, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 750,000 tons to 90.01 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1084.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.14%, with a decrease of 20,519 lots in positions. The price of main coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi decreased by 90 yuan to 1580 yuan/ton ex - factory. The supply shortage has eased, and downstream procurement is cautious [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1619 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton or 1.46%, with an increase of 768 lots in positions. The spot price of coke at ports decreased. The cost of coke enterprises has improved, and the inventory is accumulating [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 5630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous day, with a decrease of 14,855 lots in positions to 370,000 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5480 - 5670 yuan/ton. The raw material cost trends are divergent, and the inventory pressure is large [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 5416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous day, with an increase of 11,668 lots in positions to 229,300 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5080 - 5150 yuan/ton. The cost support expectation is weak, and the overall new drivers are limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 1 - 5 month spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon were - 17.0, 9.0, 23.5, - 146.0, - 92.0, - 52.0, and 16.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of 2.0, - 1.0, - 1.0, - 0.5, 6.0, 10.0, and 0.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon were 151.0, - 14.0, 50.7, 3.0, 143.5, - 130.0, and - 192.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of 7.0, - 5.0, 0.3, 13.1, 1.5, - 14.0, and 2.0 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3250.0, 3220.0, and 3470.0 yuan/ton respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3290.0, 3290.0, and 3340.0 yuan/ton respectively; the spot price of PB powder was 798.0 yuan/ton; the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1460.0 yuan/ton; the spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1420.0 yuan/ton; the spot prices of manganese silicon in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guangxi were 5480.0, 5500.0, and 5530.0 yuan/ton respectively; the spot prices of ferrosilicon in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai were 5100.0, 5120.0, and 5150.0 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The rebar's disk profit was - 68.6, the long - process profit was - 109.2, and the short - process profit was 38.0. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 205.0, the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.9, the coking coal to iron ore ratio was 1.5, the coke to iron ore ratio was 2.0, the rebar to coke ratio was 1.9, and the difference between the two silicons was 238.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][10][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][19][21][22][23][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 (or 05 - 09) contract spread charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][32][34][35][38][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report presents the charts of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, coke to iron ore ratio, coking coal to coke ratio, and difference between the two silicons of the main contracts [44][46][48]. - **Rebar Profits**: The report presents the charts of the rebar's disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [50][53]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: The assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry's spot trading, research, and consulting [55]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: The director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [55]. - **Liu Xi**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [55]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [56].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangda Futures' Daily Monitoring Report on Iron Ore Basis and Spread" - Date: November 27, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Contract Price and Spread 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - I05 closed at 773.5 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I09 closed at 748.5 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I01 closed at 797.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - The spread between I05 and I09 was 25.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I09 and I01 was -48.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I01 and I05 was 23.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Basis Analysis 2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás Fines (Kaofen), the basis changed. For example, Carajás Fines' basis was 52 yuan/ton today, down 2 yuan from the previous day [5]. 2.2 Basis Chart - Charts show the basis trends of different iron ore varieties, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, etc. [7][8][9] 3. Exchange Rule Adjustments 3.1 Newly Added Deliverable Varieties - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian Concentrate) are added, with a brand premium of 0, starting from Contract I2202 [11]. - Four more varieties (Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Minmetals Standard Fines, and SP10 Fines) are added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Brand Premium Adjustments - Only PB Fines, BRBF, and Carajás Fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while other deliverable brands have a premium of 0 yuan/ton in the new rules [11]. 3.3 Quality Difference and Premium Adjustments - The allowable range of iron grade is adjusted to ≥56%. Other element limits and corresponding premium - discount rules are also detailed [11]. - The premium value of the iron element is dynamically adjusted by X, with different calculation methods based on the average settlement price of the nearest delivery - month contract [11]. 4. Variety Spread Analysis 4.1 Variety Spread Data - The spread between PB Lump and PB Fines was 77.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan from the previous day [13]. - The spread between PB Fines and FMG Mixed Fines was 66.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan from the previous day [13]. 4.2 Variety Spread Charts - Charts display the spread trends of different iron ore varieties, such as lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, etc. [15][16][20] 5. Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and relevant qualifications in the industry [24]

一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 9 月整体耐用品订单 | | | 环比初值增长 0.5%，与市场预期持平，但较 8 月的 2.9%明显放缓。美联储褐皮书显示， | | | 美国经济活动近期几乎陷入停滞，就业市场持续走弱、通胀压力犹存，货币政策面临挑 | | | 战。不过，美联储 12 月降息的 概率继续回升。库存方面来看，LME 库存下降 75 吨至 | | 铜 | 156500 吨；Comex 库存增加 1620 吨至 378904 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 1140 吨至 39825 | | | 吨，BC 铜维系 5802 吨。需求方面，铜价维系高位，下游接受度有所提升，整体需求呈 | | | 现缓慢回暖态势。内外股市回稳以及铜年度长单报价大幅走高推动铜价表现偏强，值得 | | | 注意的是市场看涨铜正趋于一致性，不过库存"堰塞湖"依然会对年内铜价高度形成制 | | | 约。关注铜价在高位的表现，暂时维系高位震荡观点，但一旦向上有效突破，则可能引 | | | 起新一轮的波动率抬升及看涨情绪。 | | | ...