Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Relatively Strong", and for treasury bond futures is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints - The market fluctuated throughout the day with the three major indexes showing mixed results. Over 4,200 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 2.51 trillion yuan. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but its stance was cautious, and there was internal divergence on the path of interest rate cuts this year. The domestic economic data in August showed a slight decline in demand - side indicators, indicating that the economy is still on the way to bottom - out and stabilize. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to boost inflation through more inclusive fiscal policies. As the important meeting in October approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is advisable to reduce long positions appropriately [1] - Treasury bond futures closed lower across the board. The central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan. The short - term central bank's signal to support the capital market is obvious. With the current fundamental factors being mixed, the bond market shows no obvious turning point signal and will continue the oscillating trend [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 23, 2025, IH was at 2,925.0 (up 2.0, 0.07% from the previous day), IF was at 4,483.8 (down 0.2, 0.00%), IC was at 6,940.6 (down 72.6, - 1.04%), and IM was at 7,127.0 (down 103.2, - 1.43%) [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,919.5 (down 2.7, - 0.09%), the CSI 300 was at 4,519.8 (down 2.8, - 0.06%), the CSI 500 was at 7,180.7 (down 44.4, - 0.61%), and the CSI 1000 was at 7,408.1 (down 81.4, - 1.09%) [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 23, 2025, TS was at 102.35 (down 0.052, - 0.05%), TF was at 105.63 (down 0.145, - 0.14%), T was at 107.72 (down 0.26, - 0.24%), and TL was at 114.32 (down 0.81, - 0.70%) [3] 2. Market News - **Diplomatic Response**: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the tariff war and trade war are not in the interests of any party, and both sides should resolve issues through negotiation on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [5] - **Stock Market Performance**: The market fluctuated throughout the day. The shipping sector was strong, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Shipping hitting the daily limit. Bank stocks rebounded, with Nanjing Bank and Xiamen Bank rising more than 3%. The tourism sector adjusted, with Yunnan Tourism and Tibet Tourism hitting the daily limit down. Semiconductor chip stocks strengthened in the afternoon, with many stocks such as Demingli and Leon Micro hitting the daily limit [5][6] 3. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes [8][10][12] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [15][18][20] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [24][25][28] 4. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [32] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, focusing on macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking [32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All varieties in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Tuesday, oil prices moved higher. Geopolitical factors provided support at low levels, but there was a lack of continuous upward drivers, resulting in an overall oscillating price performance. The supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will pressure the market in the future, and short - term prices will oscillate. The increase in asphalt production may limit price increases, and prices will remain stable in the short term. Polyester prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Rubber prices will oscillate due to weather and demand factors. Methanol prices are at a phased bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen. Polyolefins will show an oscillating and weakening pattern. PVC prices will oscillate weakly due to supply, demand, and inventory factors [1][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 11 - month contract rose $1.13 to $63.41/barrel, a 1.81% increase; Brent 11 - month contract rose $1.06 to $67.63/barrel, a 1.59% increase; SC2511 closed at 482.3 yuan/barrel, up 7 yuan/barrel, a 1.47% increase. The resumption of oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan is stalled, and Russia may further restrict fuel exports. The 18th typhoon "Hagasa" affects offshore oil and gas platforms. Oil prices oscillate under geopolitical influence [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 fell 0.68% to 2759 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 fell 0.68% to 3350 yuan/ton. In August, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports decreased, and exports increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has short - term support, but future supply will pressure the market. Prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to crude oil price fluctuations [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 fell 1.2% to 3373 yuan/ton. In October, domestic asphalt refinery production is expected to increase. The traditional consumption season brings stocking demand, but supply remains high, and prices will remain stable in the short term, with attention to actual demand [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4556 yuan/ton, down 0.65%; EG2601 closed at 4212 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. PX supply recovers, downstream TA maintenance increases in the fourth quarter, and terminal demand recovers slowly. Polyester prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2601 fell 90 yuan/ton to 15525 yuan/ton; NR fell 30 yuan/ton to 12395 yuan/ton; BR fell 75 yuan/ton to 11430 yuan/ton. The 18th typhoon "Hagasa" affects the region. Production recovery is slow, downstream tire demand is stable, and exports weaken. Rubber prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the typhoon's impact on Hainan [5][7] - **Methanol**: The supply is at a phased low due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. Xingxing device has resumed production, and the supply - demand gap in East China is narrowing. Methanol prices are at a phased bottom, and the basis will strengthen, but short - term long - only operations are risky. A strategy of long methanol and short polyolefins can be considered [7] - **Polyolefins**: Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The supply - demand difference is narrowing, and prices will show an oscillating and weakening pattern [9] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Domestic PVC market prices are adjusted downward. Real estate construction has stabilized but is still weak year - on - year. Supply remains high, demand recovers slowly, and exports are affected by anti - dumping policies. Total inventory pressure is large, and prices will oscillate weakly [9] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on September 24, 2025, including spot market, spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10] 3. Market News - The resumption of oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan is stalled due to debt repayment issues. Russia may further restrict fuel exports, and gasoline shortages in some areas are caused by attacks on refineries and high borrowing costs [12] 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., and their historical data from 2021 to 2025 [30][34][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [59][65][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the cash flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit charts of PP and LLDPE [69][71] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their professional backgrounds, honors, and research areas [75][76][77] 6. Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a daily data tracking of stock index futures on September 23, 2025, including index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on indices, basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and points differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Trends - On September 23, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3821.83 points with a trading volume of 1071.698 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.29% to 13119.82 points with a trading volume of 1422.684 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.09% with a trading volume of 503.96 billion yuan, opening at 7500.62, closing at 7408.07, with a high of 7504.23 and a low of 7261.67 [1] - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.61% with a trading volume of 495.069 billion yuan, opening at 7240.85, closing at 7180.71, with a high of 7250.82 and a low of 7045.56 [1] - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.09% with a trading volume of 168.987 billion yuan, opening at 2917.99, closing at 2919.51, with a high of 2938.12 and a low of 2891.78 [1] - The CSI 300 Index fell 0.06% with a trading volume of 680.514 billion yuan, opening at 4536.76, closing at 4519.78, with a high of 4560.73 and a low of 4459.73 [1] 3.2 Impact of Sector Fluctuations on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 81.41 points compared to the previous close, with sectors such as Computer and Medicine & Biology significantly pulling the index down [2] - The CSI 500 Index dropped 44.42 points compared to the previous close. The Power Equipment sector significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like Medicine & Biology, Non - Banking Finance, and Computer pulled it down [2] - The CSI 300 Index dropped 2.83 points compared to the previous close. Sectors such as Bank, Communication, and Electronics pulled the index up, while Computer, Medicine & Biology, and Non - Banking Finance pulled it down [2] - The SSE 50 Index dropped 2.67 points compared to the previous close. Sectors such as Bank, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Public Utilities pulled the index up, while Non - Banking Finance, Electronics, and Medicine & Biology pulled it down [2] 3.3 Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 107.49, IM01 of - 195.71, IM02 of - 281.02, and IM03 of - 488.76 [12] - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 112.22, IC01 of - 186.93, IC02 of - 254.9, and IC03 of - 426.14 [12] - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 23.49, IF01 of - 36.88, IF02 of - 51.72, and IF03 of - 78.0 [12] - IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.65, IH01 of - 1.94, IH02 of - 0.77, and IH03 of 0.52 [12] 3.4 Points Differences in Contract Roll - over and Their Annualized Costs - For IF, from 09:45 to 15:00, the points differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs fluctuated. For example, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678 [24][26] - For IH, from 09:45 to 15:00, the points differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs also fluctuated. For example, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707 [29] - For IM, from 09:45 to 15:00, the points differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs changed. For example, at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267 [31] - For IC, from 09:45 to 15:00, the points differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs varied. For example, at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222 [32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to decline in a volatile manner. New grain harvest pressure, price drops in Heilongjiang, and slow harvest in Shandong due to rain contribute to the bearish outlook. The 11 - month contract hit a new low, and the medium - term weak expectation remains unchanged [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to move sideways. Weak demand, advancing US soybean harvest, and Argentina's tariff cancellation on grain exports affect the market. Domestic two - meal prices fluctuated, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils are expected to move sideways. BMD palm oil ended a two - day decline due to strong surrounding markets and positive export data. Domestic oils are divided, with rapeseed oil being strong and soybean and palm oils being weak. Short - term participation is advised [1]. - Eggs are expected to move sideways. Futures prices declined, and spot prices were mostly stable. Supply continues to pressure egg prices, and the boost from peak - season demand is limited. Light - position participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply and market sentiment changes [1]. - Pigs are expected to move sideways. Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices stabilized with partial rebounds. Supply is abundant, and short - term rebounds are limited. Attention should be paid to the support from demand and policies as temperatures drop [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil export data from different institutions shows mixed results. SGS data indicates a 16.1% decrease in exports from September 1 - 20 compared to the previous month, while Amspec shows an 8.3% increase. Production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 7.89% compared to the previous month [3]. - The national pig - feed ratio this week is 5.12, a 1.54% decline. Pig farmers are expected to have a loss of - 106.13 yuan per head. Supply increased this week, and demand was limited. Next week, the decline in pig prices may slow, but losses are expected to increase [3]. - On September 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased. The average prices of pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens in the national agricultural product wholesale market also rose compared to last Friday [3]. - On September 22, Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, its derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until exports reach $7 billion to increase foreign exchange supply [4]. Variety Spreads - Contract spreads and contract basis are presented for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean, oil, egg, and pig, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided in the text [5][13]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.06% to 66.25 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.98% to 13,610 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 13,028 lots to 522,300 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,795 yuan per ton, down 75 yuan. Internationally, after the Fed's September meeting, the overall drive slowed and there are still differences in the future interest - rate cut path. The U.S. cotton is mainly in low - level oscillation. Domestically, with new cotton flooding the market, the supply pressure is high and the cotton price is moving down. In the short term, the supply pressure is hard to relieve, and the opening price is expected to adjust with the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will be in a weak oscillation, with limited downward space [2]. - For sugar, from January to August 2025, China imported 734,300 tons of syrup and white - sugar premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 716,700 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in various regions have been lowered. The raw - sugar futures price continued to be weak, hitting a new low. With beet sugar about to be on the market, the domestic spot price has further declined. The market sentiment is cautious. The view on the futures market is still weak, and short positions can be held, with the downward depth adjusted dynamically. Attention should be paid to the pre - sale of new domestic sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The price of ICE U.S. cotton and CF601 decreased. The main - contract positions increased. The spot price index declined. Internationally, the post - meeting situation and differences in the interest - rate cut path affect the market. Domestically, new - cotton supply pressure is high. In the short term, the supply pressure persists and the price is expected to be weak [2]. - **Sugar**: The import volume of syrup and white - sugar premixed powder decreased year - on - year. Spot prices in various regions were lowered. The raw - sugar futures price was weak, and domestic prices declined with the upcoming beet - sugar supply. The market sentiment is cautious, and a weak view is held on the futures market [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 5, down 20. The main - contract basis was 1,614, up 51. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,146 yuan per ton, down 52, and the national spot price was 15,224 yuan per ton, down 59 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 19, up 2. The main - contract basis was 413, down 31. The Nanning spot price was 5,800 yuan per ton, down 30, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,865 yuan per ton, down 40 [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On September 22, the cotton futures warehouse - receipt quantity was 4,096, down 136, with 12 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load remained unchanged, the yarn inventory decreased slightly, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth inventory remained unchanged [4]. - **Sugar**: On September 22, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased. The sugar futures warehouse - receipt quantity was 10,315, down 49, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the cotton main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff - quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China cotton price index [7][10][12]. - **Sugar**: Charts show the sugar main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [15][18]. 5. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, a resource - product research director focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, responsible for research on urea, soda - ash glass, etc.; and Sun Chengzhen, mainly engaged in the fundamental research of cotton, cotton yarn, etc. [20][21][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market shows marginal improvement in supply - demand, with the steel industry's growth plan boosting sentiment. The short - term trend of the rebar futures market is expected to be narrow - range consolidation. The iron ore market has a complex situation of supply - demand, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term due to factors such as supply - demand and cost. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to follow the overall trend of the black commodities due to limited fundamental drivers [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price on September 23, 2025, showed a strong and volatile trend. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3185 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.41%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 109,000 lots in positions. The spot price was stable with an increase, and the trading volume recovered. The national building materials inventory decreased by 1.63% to 518.39 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.74% to 224.59 million tons. The steel industry's growth plan boosted market sentiment, and it is expected that the short - term rebar futures will be in narrow - range consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend on September 23, 2025, closing at 808.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 410,000 lots and a decrease of 12,000 lots in positions. The supply side showed a decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil, while the demand side saw an increase in molten iron production and a decline in steel mill profitability. With multiple factors at play, the ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [1]. - **Coking Coal**: On September 23, 2025, the coking coal futures price declined. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1217.5 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan/ton (1.18%), with a decrease of 7023 lots in positions. The supply side saw an increase in production at coal mines, and the demand side showed an increase in demand from coking enterprises. However, due to the general profit situation of coking and steel enterprises, it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures will have wide - range fluctuations [1]. - **Coke**: On September 23, 2025, the coke futures price declined. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1718 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (1.18%), with a decrease of 489 lots in positions. The supply side faced rising costs of coking coal, and the demand side saw an increase in demand from some steel mills. But due to the poor profitability of steel mills, the short - term coke futures are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 23, 2025, the manganese silicon futures price showed a weakening trend. The main contract was reported at 5870 yuan/ton, down 1.84% from the previous day, with an increase of 5304 lots in positions to 339,800 lots. The current weekly output of manganese silicon is still high, and the demand side has limited drivers. The cost and inventory sides have little change, so it is expected to follow the overall trend of black commodities [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On September 23, 2025, the ferrosilicon futures price showed a weakening trend. The main contract was reported at 5648 yuan/ton, down 2.01% from the previous day, with a decrease of 11,755 lots in positions to 200,000 lots. The production of ferrosilicon is at a relatively high level, and the demand side has weak drivers. Although the cost of raw materials has increased, the inventory is still high. Therefore, it is expected to follow the overall trend of black commodities [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spread trends between different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][31][32][33][36][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report presents the spread trends between different varieties such as main contract hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, etc [41][43][45]. - **Rebar Profits**: The report shows the profit trends of rebar main contracts such as disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [52][53].

碳酸锂日报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-19 | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 73420 | 73960 | -540 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 73200 | 73760 | -560 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 860 | 859 | 1 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 1165 | 1150 | 15 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1900 | 1880 | 20 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 6090 | 6090 | 0 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 22, industrial silicon had a weak and volatile performance. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,950 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.83%, and the open interest decreased by 25,607 lots to 285,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,604 yuan/ton, up 121 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 rebounded to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 50 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,990 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.63%, and the open interest increased by 8,068 lots to 124,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed feedstock rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount turning into a premium of 1,510 yuan/ton. [2] - In the short term, industrial silicon is supported by cost but suppressed by high inventory. For polysilicon, a draft of the energy consumption policy has been released, with a slight increase in the standards for grades 1 and 2, but the forced clearance is relatively mild. Trump plans to include silicon products in the tax list. Amid the unimplemented domestic and foreign policies, there is a strong sentiment of rushing to produce and export polysilicon. The policy direction deviates from the actual supply - demand situation, resulting in a pattern of short - term pressure and long - term strength. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - The performance of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures on September 22, including price changes, open interest changes, and spot price movements, was analyzed. The short - term situation of industrial silicon and the impact of policies on polysilicon were also discussed, pointing out the coexistence of cost support and high - inventory pressure for industrial silicon, and the complex situation of polysilicon under policy and supply - demand factors. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased. Most of the spot prices of different grades and regions increased, with the price of the lowest deliverable product rising by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowing significantly. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 72, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory decreased by 620 tons, the factory inventory increased by 3,800 tons, and the social inventory increased by 1,800 tons. The substitution delivery premium of 421 changed, and regional price differences were set. [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased. The spot prices of various types remained unchanged. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 30, the GFE inventory increased by 0.2 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.8 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons. The substitution delivery premium of P - type was set, and no regional price differences were set. [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil in the East China market all increased. [3] 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: Charts showed the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [14][15] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts presented the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [15][17][19] - **Inventory**: Charts displayed the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and inventory changes), DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory. [23][24][26] - **Cost and Profit**: Charts showed the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon. [29][31][35] 4. Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, professional achievements, and contact information provided. [37][38][39]

Research Views Copper - Overnight copper prices first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher. The divergence within the Fed and the Trump administration's interference with Fed policies may be a major market concern. Domestically, the central bank governor stated that there would be no short - term policy adjustments, and China is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. LME copper inventories decreased by 2,275 tons to 145,375 tons, Comex inventories increased by 1,371 tons to 288,746 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventories decreased by 0.44 million tons to 14.45 million tons. Downstream demand is weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. After the Fed's meeting, copper prices remain cautious due to potential market避险情绪 and overseas macro risks during the holiday [1]. Aluminum - Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Alumina plants' continuous resumption of production increases social inventory pressure, while domestic mines have not resumed production and ore shipments have decreased, causing ore inventories to decline. Although alumina is generally bearish, it has basically bottomed out. Aluminum ingots have not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point. As the double festivals approach, downstream industries are in the stocking stage, but the current outbound volume is at the lowest level in the past three years. Aluminum prices remain strong, scrap aluminum prices are firm, and the aluminum alloy market continues to trade at high levels [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.46% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19%. LME nickel inventories increased by 456 tons to 228,900 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 307 tons to 25,536 tons. Nickel ore prices are relatively stable. Stainless - steel weekly inventories decreased significantly, and the cost support from nickel - iron prices has strengthened, but supply has also increased. In the new - energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply may remain relatively tight due to cobalt policies. The combination of macro factors and rising nickel - iron and MHP prices may slightly lift the bottom of nickel prices, but inventories remain a resistance to price increases [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 240 yuan/ton to 80,190 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 73,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 150 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME copper inventories decreased by 2,275 tons, Comex inventories increased by 1,371 tons, and domestic + bonded area social inventories decreased by 0.3 million tons to 21.7 million tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum quotes decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 10 yuan/ton. The spot premium remained unchanged. The price of Shanxi low - grade bauxite and high - grade bauxite remained unchanged, and the price of Shandong alumina decreased by 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventories remained unchanged, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained at 0.0 million tons, while the social inventory of alumina decreased by 1.3 million tons to 5.8 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME nickel inventories increased by 456 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 307 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel increased by 1,125 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc spot premiums increased by 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of SHFE zinc increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 14.46 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.1%, and the SMM spot price increased by 2,700 yuan/ton. The price of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 1,800 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of SHFE tin decreased by 909 tons [6]. Chart Analysis Spot Premium - Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][18][19][20]. LME Inventory - Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. Social Inventory - Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. Smelting Profit - Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper rough - smelting processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillation" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is facing a generally loose supply side and a lack of clear guidance on the demand side, so the market is oscillating repeatedly [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil remains at the current level, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market still has short - term support, but the increasing supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will pressure the market fundamentals in the coming weeks [3]. - The traditional consumption peak season of asphalt brings stocking demand, but the high - level supply may limit the price increase space, and the short - term price will remain stable [3]. - The fundamentals of PTA and ethylene glycol are under pressure, with terminal demand recovering slowly and oil prices under pressure in the long - term, so the prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - The supply and demand of rubber are both increasing, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate mainly, with attention to the impact of typhoons on rubber production in Hainan [4][7]. - Methanol prices are expected to enter a stage bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen, with attention to buying opportunities at low prices [7]. - The demand for polyolefins is improving marginally, with little change in supply, and the overall pattern will be weakly oscillating [7][9]. - The supply of PVC remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports are weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices declined slightly. Iraq plans to restart crude oil exports from Kurdistan. China's crude oil imports in August 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but imports from Russia decreased month - on - month [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contracts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has short - term support, but future supply may pressure the market [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract declined. The traditional consumption peak season brings demand, but high supply may limit price increases [3]. - **Polyester**: On Monday, the main contracts of PTA, ethylene glycol, and PX declined. The supply of PX recovers, PTA's fourth - quarter maintenance increases, and the fundamentals of PTA and ethylene glycol are under pressure [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber rose. The total inventory decreased last week. Typhoons may affect rubber production in Hainan, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][7]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic and overseas supply is in a short - term low, and the Xingxing device has resumed production. Methanol prices are expected to enter a stage bottom [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season, showing a weakly oscillating pattern [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the prices of PVC in different regions were reported. Domestic demand recovers slowly, exports are weakening, and the total inventory pressure is large, with prices expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on September 23, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - Kuwait's current crude oil production capacity has reached 3.2 million barrels per day, the highest in more than a decade [13]. - China's crude oil imports in August 2025 were 49.492 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month - on - month and 0.82% year - on - year. Russia was the largest source of imports, and Saudi Arabia was the second - largest [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [30][31][34] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][45][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of the production of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][69][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the analyst for crude oil, etc. Du Bingqin, the rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their work experiences and achievements [75][76][77]