Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [1] Core Views - Urea futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to a lack of substantial positive drivers in the domestic market, with attention on daily production changes, spot trading, and overall market sentiment [1] - Soda ash futures prices are recommended to be treated with a bullish oscillating approach, as market sentiment has improved but fundamental drivers remain weak, and focus should be on supply levels, downstream production, macro sentiment, and overall market sentiment [1] - In the short term, glass futures prices may continue their bullish trend, but industry supply - demand contradictions are difficult to fundamentally change, and investors should be cautious about this rise, paying attention to overall market sentiment, the macro - environment, and production policies [1] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Urea**: On Monday, the urea futures price oscillated weakly, with the main 09 contract closing at 1764 yuan/ton, a slight 0.64% decline. The spot market also weakened, with mainstream regional prices dropping by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly to 19.53 tons per day, and demand sentiment weakened, with most mainstream regions' spot sales - to - production ratios between 30% - 40%. Export news will continue to have an impact, but the domestic market lacks positive drivers [1] - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the soda ash futures price oscillated weakly at first and then rose rapidly. The main 09 contract closed up 1.31% at 1241 yuan/ton. The spot market was mostly stable, with some regional prices still falling. The transaction price in the Hebei region for heavy soda ash increased by 14 yuan/ton to 1221 yuan/ton. Supply increased, with the industry's operating rate rising to 84.76%. Demand was average, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, but recent market sentiment improvement led to some demand release [1] - **Glass**: On Monday, the glass futures price oscillated widely at first and then rose rapidly. The main 09 contract closed at 1102 yuan/ton, a 1.1% increase. The spot market was stable, with the average domestic float glass price at 1174 yuan/ton, and some regions seeing a 10 - 20 yuan/ton increase. Glass daily melting remained stable at 15.84 tons, and demand sentiment improved recently, with most mainstream regions' spot sales - to - production ratios above 90% and Hubei's reaching 150% [1] Market Information - **Urea**: On July 14, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 2630, a decrease of 15 from the previous day, and the valid forecasts were 0. The industry's daily production was 19.53 tons, a decrease of 0.13 tons from the previous workday but an increase of 1.80 tons compared to the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 84.34%, a 2.46 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. Small - particle urea spot prices in various domestic regions decreased, with Shandong at 1820 yuan/ton (- 40), Henan at 1840 yuan/ton (- 10), etc [4] - **Soda Ash & Glass**: On July 14, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 3394, a decrease of 70 from the previous day, with valid forecasts of 576; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 797, unchanged from the previous day. Soda ash spot prices varied by region. The industry's operating rate was 84.76%, up from 82.58% the previous workday. The average price of the float glass market was 1174 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the industry's daily production was 15.84 tons, also unchanged [6][7] Resource品团队研究成员介绍 - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, with multiple awards in relevant fields [21] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, glass, etc., and has won many industry awards [21] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, ferroalloys, etc., and has won relevant honors [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - The report is titled "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated July 15, 2025, from Guangqi Research [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides comprehensive data on iron ore futures contracts, including prices, spreads, and basis, along with relevant contract adjustment information and graphical analysis [3][6][11] 3. Key Points by Content 3.1 Futures Contracts - I05 closed at 717.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 766.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan; I01 remained unchanged at 736.5 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of I05 - I09 was -49.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan; I09 - I01 was 30.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan; I01 - I05 was 19.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan [3] 3.2 Basis - For various iron ore varieties, the basis values and their changes are presented. For example, the basis of Carajás fines was 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] 3.3 Contract Adjustments - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) were added with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton, effective from the I2202 contract [11] - The brand premiums of some existing varieties were adjusted. Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while others are 0 yuan/ton [11] - The allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators was adjusted, and a more detailed quality premium system was introduced [11] - Four more varieties (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) were added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton [11] 3.4 Variety Spreads - The spreads between different iron ore varieties are provided, such as the spread of PB lump - PB fines was 145.0 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan from the previous day [13] 3.5 Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant qualifications [26]

1. Index Trends - On July 14th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to close at 3519.65 points, with a trading volume of 623.102 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to close at 10684.52 points, with a trading volume of 835.636 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.02%, with a trading volume of 302.637 billion yuan, opening at 6465.51, closing at 6462.31, with a daily high of 6474.93 and a low of 6443.56 [1] - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.1%, with a trading volume of 226.291 billion yuan, opening at 6033.18, closing at 6020.86, with a daily high of 6042.89 and a low of 6011.69 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.04%, with a trading volume of 90.039 billion yuan, opening at 2761.48, closing at 2757.81, with a daily high of 2774.23 and a low of 2757.81 [1] 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 1.21 points from the previous close. Machinery, power equipment, and automotive sectors significantly pulled the index up, while media, non - bank finance, and computer sectors pulled it down [2] - The CSI 500 rose - 6.22 points from the previous close. Pharmaceutical biology, machinery, and public utilities sectors significantly pulled the index up, while electronics, media, and non - bank finance sectors pulled it down [2] - The SSE 300 rose 2.86 points from the previous close. Banks, non - ferrous metals, and household appliances sectors significantly pulled the index up, while national defense and military industry, computer, and non - bank finance sectors pulled it down [2] - The SSE 50 rose 1.04 points from the previous close. Banks, pharmaceutical biology, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors significantly pulled the index up, while electronics, food and beverage, and non - bank finance sectors pulled it down [2] 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 13.34, IM01 was - 80.4, IM02 was - 149.25, and IM03 was - 329.11 [12] - IC00 average daily basis was - 9.63, IC01 was - 64.69, IC02 was - 114.85, and IC03 was - 238.97 [12] - IF00 average daily basis was - 8.32, IF01 was - 22.73, IF02 was - 32.29, and IF03 was - 61.46 [12] - IH00 average daily basis was - 6.87, IH01 was - 10.48, IH02 was - 11.07, and IH03 was - 9.58 [12] 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides detailed data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [21][23][25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel exports remain at a high level, boosting domestic market sentiment. The weight of macro trading in the steel futures market is greater than that of industrial supply and demand. As prices rise, spot prices show signs of weakness in following up, and the basis narrows significantly. Short-term steel futures may enter an oscillatory consolidation trend [1]. - Under the boost of macro news, iron ore prices have continued to rise. Currently, the fundamentals have not changed much compared to the previous period. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue the high-level oscillation trend in the near future [1]. - Coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the production of coking coal has recovered. The upstream inventory pressure has continued to decline, and some traders have increased their stockpiling. The demand for terminal steel products remains weak, but the risk preference in the market has improved under the "anti-involution" expectation. Shanxi steel mills have received a verbal notice of crude steel production restrictions, which will boost the black variety market to a certain extent [1]. - The production of raw coal and coking coal has increased, and the supply of upstream coal mines has continued to recover. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coking coal has decreased during the Nadam Fair, and traders have accelerated their stockpiling before the closure, pushing up the auction premium and transaction rate. The spot price of coking coal has been firm recently, and the production losses of coking enterprises have increased, and their operating pressure has increased. After the previous stockpiling, the procurement rhythm of coking coal has slowed down, and some speculative funds have continued to stockpile [1]. - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have shown an oscillatory trend. The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the fundamental driving force is limited [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The futures price of rebar fluctuated within a narrow range. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume increased. Steel exports remained at a high level, and the weight of macro trading in the futures market was greater than that of industrial supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term futures price will enter an oscillatory consolidation trend [1]. - **Iron ore**: The futures price of iron ore rose. The spot price of port iron ore also increased. The supply of iron ore decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in ports decreased, and the number of ships at ports increased. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue the high-level oscillation trend in the near future [1]. - **Coking coal**: The futures price of coking coal rose. The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coking coal market was strong. Coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the upstream inventory pressure has decreased. The demand for terminal steel products remains weak, but the risk preference in the market has improved under the "anti-involution" expectation. Shanxi steel mills have received a verbal notice of crude steel production restrictions, which will boost the black variety market to a certain extent [1]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke rose. The spot price of port coke was stable. The production of raw coal and coking coal has increased, and the supply of upstream coal mines has continued to recover. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coking coal has decreased during the Nadam Fair, and traders have accelerated their stockpiling before the closure, pushing up the auction premium and transaction rate. The spot price of coking coal has been firm recently, and the production losses of coking enterprises have increased, and their operating pressure has increased. After the previous stockpiling, the procurement rhythm of coking coal has slowed down, and some speculative funds have continued to stockpile [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price of manganese silicon fluctuated widely. The spot price increased slightly. The mainstream steel tender price has been determined, and other steel tenders are in progress. The supply of manganese silicon has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory of manganese silicon remains high. It is expected that the short-term price will oscillate, and the upward space is limited [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price of ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. The spot price increased slightly. The mainstream steel tender price has been announced. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both at a low level in recent years. The inventory of ferrosilicon has gradually increased. The cost of ferrosilicon production has remained relatively stable. It is expected that the short-term price will oscillate [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties have changed to different degrees, including the spreads between 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties has also changed, including the basis of 10 and 01 contracts [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties in different regions have different changes, including the prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties have also changed, including the disk profit of rebar, the long - process profit, the short - process profit, and the spreads between different varieties [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The chart shows the closing prices of the main contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The chart shows the basis of the main contracts of various varieties over time, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The chart shows the spreads between different contracts of various varieties over time, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The chart shows the spreads between different varieties, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [40][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: The chart shows the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [45][50]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal [52]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 1.02% to 68.11 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.22% to 13,875 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 2,175 lots to 557,700 lots. The arrival price of cotton in Xinjiang was 15,282 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B was 15,295 yuan per ton, up 29 yuan. The USDA July report increased the global cotton production forecast by 311,000 tons, mainly from China and the U.S. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to exceed consumption, and there is still room for production increase. In the domestic market, the factors supporting the cotton price increase are not sustainable. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang increased by over 8% in 2025, and the weather is suitable with a high probability of a good harvest. Although the commercial inventory is low, there is no shortage worry due to sufficient state - reserve and potential quota increase. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price may rise, but the new - year's supply - demand pattern restricts the increase, and the 09 contract may perform better than the 01 [2]. - **Sugar**: The USDA reported that the U.S. 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.195 million short tons, with beet sugar at 5.097 million short tons and cane sugar at 4.098 million short tons, and the inventory/consumption ratio is estimated at 13.5%. The spot sugar prices in Guangxi and Yunnan were stable, and some processing sugar mills raised the price by 10 yuan per ton. Brazilian bi - weekly sugar production was lower than expected, but the sugar price still declined due to concerns about future supply. In the domestic market, Yunnan and processing sugar sold well, but the concern about imported sugar pressure remained. The futures price rebounded and then followed the raw sugar decline, and it should be treated with a short - term oscillatory view, with attention to June import data [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: Analyzed international and domestic market conditions, including price changes, production forecasts, and supply - demand factors, and concluded that the short - term price may rise but is restricted by the new - year's supply - demand pattern [2]. - **Sugar**: Presented U.S. production forecasts, domestic and international price information, and supply - demand concerns, and suggested a short - term oscillatory view [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was 60, down 5; the main - contract basis was 1,420, up 39; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,282, up 19, and the national spot price was 15,295, up 29 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 184, up 7; the main - contract basis was 283, down 7; the Nanning spot price was 6,060, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,100, unchanged [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 43 to 9,807, with 216 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 14, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were unchanged, and the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 28 to 22,716, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts of cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices over different time periods, were presented, with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy and chemical commodities market on July 15, 2025, showed a trend of fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy adjustments [1][2][5]. - Crude oil prices dropped on Monday. Trump's statement on the Russia - Ukraine issue led to a price decline. Although Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, the market is still cautious about future policies [1]. - For fuel oil, the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. The LU - FU spread reached a high for the year, but the medium - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil still exists [1][2]. - The asphalt market's short - term supply decreased, and although the rainy weather affected the terminal construction, the actual demand still had support. It will fluctuate with the cost of crude oil [2]. - In the polyester market, the production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to recover, and the inventory of PTA may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [2][4]. - The import of rubber increased year - on - year, and with the gradual realization of production and rigid demand from downstream tires, rubber prices are under pressure [4]. - For methanol, the load of Iranian plants has recovered, and downstream profits have improved. The price will return to a fluctuating trend [4]. - The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [5]. - The PVC market price declined, and the corporate start - up rate decreased. Although demand has not improved significantly, the market's upward rebound space is limited [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the prices of WTI, Brent, and SC2508 all declined. Trump's statement on the Russia - Ukraine issue was seen as a negative signal. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025. The price will fluctuate, and future policies need to be monitored [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Monday. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. It will follow the cost of crude oil and fluctuate. The LU - FU spread has widened, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt rose on Monday. The adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It will fluctuate with the cost of crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX rose on Monday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to recover, and the inventory of PTA may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber remained unchanged, and the price of NR decreased. The import of rubber increased year - on - year, and with the gradual realization of production and rigid demand from downstream tires, rubber prices are under pressure [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol will return to a fluctuating trend. The load of Iranian plants has recovered, and downstream profits have improved [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The price of polyolefins is expected to fluctuate slightly. Supply has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and the demand for agricultural films will increase seasonally [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC decreased. The corporate start - up rate decreased, and although demand has not improved significantly, the upward rebound space is limited [5]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes [6]. 3.3 Market News - Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened sanctions on countries buying Russian products if Russia does not agree to a peace agreement within 50 days, causing the oil price to decline [8]. - Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, but kept the forecast for 2026 unchanged [8]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [10][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [28][29][30]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][45][49]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [65][66]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows the cash flow and production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is in the 6th floor and Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for both stock index futures and bond futures are "sideways" [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Wind All A index rising 0.17% and a turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.02%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.1%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.04%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.07%. The manufacturing sector was strong, while real estate and non-banking sectors pulled back. The market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization under the "anti-involution" policy, but the impact of this policy still depends on the scale and transmission mode of central fiscal policies. Overseas, the strong "non-farm" data has slightly slowed down the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and the boost to domestic small-cap indices has weakened significantly. The fundamentals of the index still depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the corporate profit situation in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared to 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A-share index is expected to move sideways in the short term [1] - The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures contracts all closed lower, with declines of 0.18%, 0.08%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 1197 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 both increased. In July, the central bank will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2000 billion yuan. In June, export growth and financial data exceeded expectations, and the bond market was under pressure due to the tightening of the capital market. However, with the support of monetary policy, there is no expectation of a significant tightening of the capital market, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. Therefore, the bond market is expected to move sideways in the short term [2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,747.4 | 2,751.6 | -4.2 | -0.15% | | IF | 3,985.8 | 3,993.4 | -7.6 | -0.19% | | IC | 6,008.4 | 6,023.0 | -14.6 | -0.24% | | IM | 6,302.2 | 6,319.8 | -17.6 | -0.28% | [4] Stock Indices | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,757.8 | 2,756.8 | 1.0 | 0.04% | | SSE 300 | 4,017.7 | 4,014.8 | 2.9 | 0.07% | | CSI 500 | 6,020.9 | 6,027.1 | -6.2 | -0.10% | | CSI 1000 | 6,462.3 | 6,461.1 | 1.2 | 0.02% | [4] Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.38 | 102.42 | -0.036 | -0.04% | | TF | 105.92 | 106.00 | -0.075 | -0.07% | | T | 108.73 | 108.83 | -0.1 | -0.09% | | TL | 120.29 | 120.61 | -0.32 | -0.27% | [4] Group 4: Market News - As of the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5] - China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 5.0% [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter-period spreads, cross-variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][17] Exchange Rates - The report includes charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][23] Group 6: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the current director of macro-financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures practice qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [29] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, focusing on macro fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [29]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 软商品日报 | 二、日度数据监测 | | --- | | 品种 | 合约价差 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 9-1 | 55 | 10 | 1331 | -23 | 新疆 | 15175 | 12 | | | | | | | | 全国 | 15196 | 12 | | 白糖 | 9-1 | 175 | 11 | 285 | -11 | 南宁 | 6050 | 10 | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 6090 | 15 | 三、市场信息 1、7 月 10 日棉花期货仓单数量 9882 张，较上一交易日下降 50 张，有效预报 244 张。 2、7 月 10 日国内各地区棉花到厂价：新疆 15175 元/吨，河南 15229 元/吨，山东 15155 元/吨， 浙江 15429 元/吨。 | 品种 | 点评 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.03%，报收 67. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Relatively Strong [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea: On Thursday, the spot price of urea continued to rise, with the market price in mainstream areas increasing by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The daily output decreased to 19.61 tons, a daily decrease of 0.3 tons. The demand side continued to advance, but the current market focus is on the Indian tender and subsequent export policies. If there is no additional positive driving force, the market sentiment may decline, and short - term long positions can be appropriately stopped for profit [2]. - Soda Ash: On Thursday, the spot quotation of soda ash was mostly stable. The supply side remained unchanged, while the demand side continued to decline, and enterprises continued to accumulate inventory. The fundamentals are still weak, but the futures market is driven by macro and policy expectations. It is not recommended to be overly bullish [2]. - Glass: On Thursday, the spot market of glass was stable. The supply was also stable, and the demand side sentiment continued to improve. The inventory decreased by 2.87%. The futures market is centered on macro - policy expectations, and it is expected that the futures price of glass will run in a relatively strong state [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Information - Urea - On July 10, the futures warehouse receipts of urea on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 2,645, an increase of 400 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 0 [5]. - On July 10, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.61 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.73 tons from the same period last year; the current start - up rate was 84.69%, a rebound of 2.12 percentage points from 82.57% in the same period last year [5]. - On July 10, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased to varying degrees, with Shandong at 1,860 yuan/ton (+20), Henan at 1,850 yuan/ton (+10), etc. [5] - As of July 9, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons (-4.99%) from the previous week [6] Market Information - Soda Ash & Glass - On July 10, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,481, a decrease of 255 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 576; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 799, unchanged from the previous trading day [8]. - On July 10, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions varied, with the light soda ash in North China at 1,180 yuan/ton and the heavy soda ash at 1,300 yuan/ton, etc. [8] - As of the week of July 10, the weekly output of soda ash was 70.90 tons, and the industry capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, both remaining flat week - on - week [8]. - As of July 10, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 186.34 tons, an increase of 1.53 tons (+0.83%) from Monday and an increase of 5.39 tons (+2.98%) from last Thursday [8]. - On July 10, the average market price of float glass was 1,173 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day; the daily output of the industry was 15.84 tons, unchanged day - on - day [8]. - As of July 10, the inventory of float glass enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes (-2.87%) from the previous period, and an increase of 5.54% year - on - year. The inventory days decreased by 1 day to 28.9 days [8] Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and positions, price spreads, and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass, as well as the futures price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][13][16][17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 10, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.43% to 64,180 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 63,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose by 350 yuan/ton to 62,050 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 90 tons to 13,191 tons [3]. - In July, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. The increase is mainly from lithium extraction from spodumene, followed by lithium extraction from mica. From May to June, the export of lithium salts from Chile was basically flat, and the import of lithium carbonate in July is expected to change little month - on - month. In terms of demand, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. The weekly inventory increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a significant increase in the intermediate links [3]. - Currently, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipts are at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced shutdowns for maintenance and technological transformation, and there are many disturbances in the market news, which have short - term stimulated the price increase. However, the warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly on July 10. In the future, attention should be paid to the pressure level of 65,000 yuan/ton. In the long run, hedging pressure will follow. As of now, there are no signs of production cuts at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is high. Short - selling opportunities after the sentiment turns can still be considered. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the price may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures price: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.43% to 64,180 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 63,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 350 yuan/ton to 62,050 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained unchanged at 57,420 yuan/ton [3]. - Warehouse receipt inventory: It decreased by 90 tons to 13,191 tons [3]. - Supply: July output is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and weekly output increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. The increase is mainly from spodumene and mica. The import in July is expected to change little month - on - month [3]. - Demand: The production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons [3]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a significant increase in the intermediate links [3]. - Market outlook: Short - term price increase is stimulated by various factors, but attention should be paid to the 65,000 yuan/ton pressure level. In the long run, there is hedging pressure, and short - selling opportunities can be considered. The price may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 220 yuan/ton to 64,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 320 yuan/ton to 64,380 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone increased to varying degrees [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 63,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,050 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained unchanged at 57,420 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) decreased by 0.05 dollars/kg to 8 dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 51,050 yuan/ton [5]. - Price difference: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 350 yuan/ton to - 6,230 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of most precursor and cathode materials increased slightly [5]. - Battery: The prices of most battery products remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore price: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][9] - Lithium and lithium salt price: Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][14] - Price difference: Charts show the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [16][20] - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [22][26] - Lithium battery price: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][32] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from November 2024 to July 2025 [34][37] - Production cost: Charts show the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [38][39]