光期能化：甲醇策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 日 光大证券 1 2020 年半年度业绩 EVERBRIGHT SECURITIES 甲醇：伊朗装置因限气停车 | 摘 | 要 | | --- | --- | | 1、供应：国内方面，11月份涉及检修装置产能较少，产量小幅增加，12月国内装置检修主要涉及西南产区，受限气影响，天然气制甲醇开 | | | 工拖累国内甲醇开工，甲醇开工或降至83%左右。进口方面，11月底伊朗装置大规模停车，预计 | 12 月当地甲醇装船量将明显下降，常规情 | | 况下 | 1 月中国甲醇进口量会呈现季节性回落。 | | 2、需求：MTO方面，宁波富德装置计划 | 12 月检修，但山东阳煤装置陆续重启叠加年末山东联泓新建装置投放等消息影响，预计烯烃总需 | | 求有所增加，传统下游方面，醋酸装置随着检修结束，12 月开工也会逐步修复至八九成。 | | | 3、库存：内地11月烯烃持续外采、传统下游刚需支撑，库存低位运行。港口地区到港量偏高，导致库存依旧维持高位震荡。 | | | 4、总结：供应方面，12月国内产量有小幅回落预期，进口量将从高位回落。需求方面，宁波富德装置计划 1 ...

Research Views - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures, the 2605 contract, dropped 1.68% to 95,820 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 500 yuan/ton to 93,300 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 450 yuan/ton to 90,850 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 400 yuan/ton to 81,730 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased 269 tons to 26,781 tons [3]. - In terms of news, the non-oil and gas mining right change registration (including renewal) of the Zunkuoli - Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, has entered the acceptance stage. Yahua Group stated in an institutional research on November 26 that the company's current comprehensive designed lithium salt production capacity is 99,000 tons, and the new 30,000 - ton high - grade lithium salt material production line of Ya'an Lithium Industry is under commissioning. It is expected that the company's comprehensive lithium salt production capacity will reach nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025. On November 27, Atlantic Lithium said that despite the delay in Ghana's approval and the difficult lithium price trend this year, the company will enter 2026 in a strong position [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production decreased 265 tons to 21,865 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased 20 tons to 13,364 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased 50 tons to 3,021 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased 400 tons to 3,225 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased 65 tons to 2,245 tons. In October, lithium carbonate imports increased 22% to 24,000 tons, with imports from Argentina increasing 5% to 7,000 tons and imports from Chile increasing 37% to 15,000 tons. On the demand side, the weekly production of ternary materials increased 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased 71 tons to 19,361 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate increased 4,690 tons to 95,713 tons, and the inventory increased 1,757 tons to 104,341 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 15 consecutive weeks to 116,000 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory decreased 2,452 tons to 41,984 tons, the inventory in other links increased 1,780 tons to 49,660 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased 1,780 tons to 24,324 tons [3]. - The post - market news yesterday may affect market sentiment, but before the increase in supply is reflected, the weekly inventory is expected to continue to decline. From the perspective of future market trends, the bullish sentiment may gradually weaken marginally. The current weighted contract positions are still large, and there is still a risk of continued position reduction and position transfer, which will have a greater impact on the futures price. Attention should be paid to whether the demand from the power end affected by pre - consumption and the strong energy storage end exceeds expectations, or wait for the opportunity to go long after over - decline or the release of negative news [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract was 95,820 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 93,960 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,126 US dollars/ton, up 13 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,665 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,590 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - In the lithium carbonate market, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 93,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 90,850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 81,730 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 86,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 76,230 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 10.65 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - Regarding price spreads, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 11,570 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spread between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,350.37 yuan/ton, down 418 yuan [5]. - In the market of precursors and cathode materials, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 105,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 94,425 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 86,925 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 105,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 156,325 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 144,300 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 145,825 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 161,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 39,230 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy storage) was 37,675 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 34,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 41,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 39,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 377,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - In the battery market, the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.499 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.52 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.64 yuan/piece, up 0.1 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.341 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.36 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 7.45 yuan/Ah, up 0.1 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.304 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. Chart Analysis Ore Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) and amblygonite (7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - It includes charts of metal lithium prices, average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide prices, and hexafluorophosphate lithium prices from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][13]. Price Spreads - There are charts showing the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other related spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][19]. Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts display the prices of ternary precursors (523, 622, 811), ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25][26]. Lithium Battery Prices - The report shows charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][31]. Inventory - There are charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and inventory in other links of lithium carbonate from April to November 2025 [35][37]. Production Costs - A chart presents the production profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,.,

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉因感恩节休市，CF601 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 13640 元/吨，主力合 | 震荡 | | | 约持仓环比下降 11839 手至 54.06 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14480 元/吨， | | | | 较前一日上涨 5 元/吨。国内市场方面，郑棉主力合约逐渐移仓中，期价环比基本 | | | | 收平。我们认为，当前郑棉上下方驱动均相对有限。当下市场的压力在于供应端， | | | | 市场对新棉增产幅度有分歧，但是大幅增产是确定的，且目前是供应压力高峰期， | | | | 未来一段时间也是，棉价上方压力较大。下方支撑在于成本、需求与预期。年度籽 | | | | 棉收购成本已经固化，目前看纺企有利润下开机稳定，终端纺服零售表现也尚可。 | | | | 随着时间推移，供应的压力会逐渐减弱，供需格局或将结构性转变。12 月有重磅 | | | | 会议，值得市场期待。综合来看，我们认为短期郑棉仍将在当前位置震荡 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated with an upward bias, and domestic spot imports remained in a loss. The US market was closed for Thanksgiving, reducing its guiding role. The Fed's Beige Book showed that the US economic activity has nearly stalled recently, the job market continues to weaken, and inflationary pressures persist, posing challenges to monetary policy. LME copper inventory increased by 675 tons to 157,175 tons, Comex copper inventory remained at 378,904 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons, and BC copper decreased by 300 tons to 5,502 tons. The demand for copper showed a slow recovery as downstream acceptance improved despite high prices. The stabilization of domestic and international stock markets and a significant increase in the annual long - term copper contract price pushed up the copper price. However, the "inventory dam" will still limit the upside of copper prices this year. It is recommended to monitor the performance of copper prices at high levels, maintain the view of high - level fluctuations for now, but be aware that an effective upward breakthrough may lead to a new round of volatility increase and bullish sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated with an upward bias, with AO2601 closing at 2,730 yuan/ton, a 0.55% increase, and open interest increasing by 3,459 lots to 359,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, with AL2601 closing at 21,480 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease, and open interest increasing by 223 lots to 257,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract AD2601 closing at 20,715 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decrease, and open interest decreasing by 182 lots to 5,334 lots. In the spot market, the SMM alumina price dropped to 2,831 yuan/ton, the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to 20 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 quotation rebounded to 21,380 yuan/ton, at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the Wuxi A00 price. Aluminum rod processing fees remained stable in many places, while those in Xinjiang, Nanchang, and Wuxi decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The processing fees of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods in Yunnan increased by 75 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections have started in the north, mainly targeting the mining end. Some northern alumina plants have undergone phased maintenance, but there has been no large - scale production cut. The warehouse capacity in Xinjiang is approaching full, and the social inventory of alumina has been slightly relieved. Downstream raw material inventory backlogs continue to put pressure on prices. As the expectation of US interest rate cuts declines, the macro - sentiment has become more cautious. The decline in the aluminum price center and the temporary lifting of environmental production restrictions in Henan have led to the partial resumption of processing production lines, increasing the outbound volume of aluminum ingots. The initial tightness in Xinjiang's shipments and the limited decline in molten aluminum have helped the aluminum ingot inventory continue to decline slightly, providing short - term support for the aluminum price, but there is still an upper limit [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.03% to $14,840/ton, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.21% to 117,160 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 930 tons to 255,450 tons, and SHFE warrants decreased by 396 tons to 33,548 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The benchmark price of nickel ore decreased slightly, but the premium remained relatively stable. In the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain, the transaction price center of nickel - iron has shifted downwards, weakening the raw material support. The weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the market is sluggish. In the new energy industry chain, the tight supply of raw materials provides a bottom - support, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more apparent. Considering the cost of producing electrowon nickel from SMM's integrated MHP at 110,000 yuan/ton as support, one may consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances, potential production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 27, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 87,035 yuan/ton, up 425 yuan from the previous day; the flat - copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 78,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong was 2,854 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan; the price of oxygen - free copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai was 87,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of low - oxygen copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai was 83,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 156,500 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons, the total SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,620 tons to 378,900 tons, and the domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 28.1 million tons. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton to - 49.8 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading remained at 45.5 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 380 yuan to - 1,210.4 yuan [4]. - **Lead**: On November 27, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,960 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 1 lead ingot premium in East China remained at - 60 yuan; the price difference between the first and second - month contracts of Shanghai lead remained at 0; the price of tax - included recycled refined lead (≥pb99.97) was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of tax - included recycled lead (≥pb98.5) was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of tax - included reduced lead in Shandong was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The arrival price of 50% lead concentrate in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the processing fees remained unchanged. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 264,975 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 1,159 tons to 27,495 tons, and the SHFE inventory (weekly) decreased by 3,869 tons to 38,921 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 7.2 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 90 dollars/ton, and the active contract import profit was 68 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Aluminum**: On November 27, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Nanhai aluminum price was 21,380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference was - 70 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot premium was - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of low - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at 615 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at 655 yuan/ton; the FOB price of alumina remained at 320 dollars/ton; the price of Shandong alumina remained at 2,775 yuan/ton; the price difference between domestic and foreign alumina remained at 213 yuan; the price of pre - baked anodes remained at 6,717 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 6063 aluminum (φ90) in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan to 410 yuan/ton, and the processing fee of 1A60 aluminum rods in Guangdong remained at 350 yuan/ton; the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China remained at 21,350 yuan/ton. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 541,725 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 76 tons to 66,909 tons, the total SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 8,817 tons to 123,716 tons, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory (weekly) decreased by 1.7 million tons to 59.6 million tons, and the alumina social inventory (weekly) increased by 0.1 million tons to 14.1 million tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 49.65 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 90 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss was - 1,786 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Nickel**: On November 27, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 121,300 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi nickel was 4,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price difference between 1 imported nickel and Wuxi nickel was 650 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained at 3,300 yuan/ton; the price of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port remained at 465 yuan/ton, and the price of 1.8% nickel ore from the Philippines at Lianyungang decreased by 1 yuan to 652 yuan/ton; the price of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi remained at 12,150 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B stainless steel coils (both rough - edged and trimmed) in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged; the price of domestic nickel sulfate (≥22%) was 32,300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of domestic 523 - series and 622 - series precursors decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 254,520 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 396 tons to 33,548 tons, the SHFE nickel inventory (weekly) decreased by 778 tons to 39,795 tons, SHFE stainless - steel warrants decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons, the social nickel inventory (weekly) decreased by 855 tons to 52,259 tons, and the social stainless - steel inventory (Foshan + Wuxi) decreased by 12 tons to 940 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 228 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 85 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss was - 1,937 yuan/ton, down 610 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: On November 27, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 22,475 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; the LmeS3 price was 2,505.5 dollars/ton, up 0.0%; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.97; the near - far month price difference was - 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the SMM 0 spot price was 22,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the SMM 1 spot price was 22,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the domestic spot average premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the imported zinc average premium was 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME 0 - 3 premium was 2.5 dollars/ton, down 1.75 dollars/ton; the price of zinc alloy Zamak3 was 23,125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of zinc alloy Zamak5 was 23,675 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) remained at 21,500 yuan/ton. The weekly TC of 50% domestic zinc concentrate remained at 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and that of 50% imported zinc concentrate remained at 240 dollars/dry ton. The SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, the LME inventory remained at 49,925 tons, and the social inventory (weekly) decreased by 1.13 million tons to 14.04 million tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 2,502 tons to 69,118 tons, the LME registered warrants decreased by 525 tons to 44,425 tons, and the active contract import profit was 0 yuan/ton, up 5,180 yuan from the previous day [7]. - **Tin**: On November 27, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 300,440 yuan/ton, up 1.5%; the LmeS3 price was 27,540 dollars/ton, down 2.1%; the Shanghai - London ratio was 10.91; the near - far month price difference was - 360 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the SMM spot price was 301,800 yuan/ton, up 6,600 yuan; the price of 60% tin concentrate was 287,200 yuan/metal ton, up 1,700 yuan; the price of 40% tin concentrate was 283,200 yuan/metal ton, up 1,700 yuan; the domestic spot average premium remained at 200 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 50 dollars/ton to 185 dollars/ton. The SHFE inventory (weekly) decreased by 29 tons to 6,229 tons, the LME inventory remained at 3,125 tons, the SHFE registered warrants increased by 34 tons to 6,219 tons, the LME registered warrants decreased by 65 tons to 2,780 tons, the active contract import profit was 0 yuan/ton, up 29,136 yuan from the previous day, and the tariff was 3% [7]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the price differences between the first and second - month contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][19][20] - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34] - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40] - **Smelting Profit**: Charts depict the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47] 3. Introduction to the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the current director of non - ferrous

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素现货市场普遍走高，主流地区现货价格多数有10~20元/吨的上调，山东、 %以上，但区域间差异有所加大，低成交地区产销率仅有20%~50%。本周企业库存继 | 坚挺 震荡 | | | 河南地区市场价格均为1650元/吨，日环比上涨20元/吨。基本面来看，目前气头企 | | | | 业尚未大规模降负荷，尿素供应水平继续高位波动，昨日行业日产量20.34万吨，日 | | | | 环比维持稳定。需求端跟进情绪局部继续好转，现货产销率部分地区昨日仍维持100 | | | | 续下降5.1%，上游企业及贸易商涨价心态浓厚，但当前产业心态偏谨慎，价格上涨 | | | | 后局部区域采购氛围有所转弱，因此后续现货高成交持续情况仍需关注。整体来看 | | | | ，短期尿素市场情绪延续偏强状态，期货价格短期也将继续偏强运行，关注需求持 | | | | 续情况、气头企业负荷变化、印标及国际市场扰动、商品市场整体情绪。 | | | | 周四 ...

工业硅日报 一、研究观点 点评 27 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 9115 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.33%，持仓 减仓 22881 手至 23.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9727 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格涨至 9000 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 40 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 55235 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.91%，持仓 减仓 1457 手至 14.2 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52300 元/吨，最 低交割品硅料价格涨至 52300 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 5690 元/吨。西 南工业硅厂扩大减产，但北方整体供给稳定，积极向期现商出货，导致价 格未修复到西南硅厂顺利出货位置。工业硅短期难见趋势，延续震荡调 整。因硅片订单大幅收缩，二三线经历阶段恐慌性降价，但硅料挺价意愿 强烈。当前市场对于多晶硅产能收储并不乐观，叠加终端需求收缩给予硅 料端有价无市压力。当前资金集中在近月挤仓和 1-5 正套上，短期期现持 续分歧且波动较高，建议谨慎为上。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅&多晶硅 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3093 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 下跌 6 元/吨，跌幅为 0.19%，持仓减少 13.1 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2970 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.27 万 | | | | 吨。据我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回落 1.88 万吨至 206.08 万吨，同比减少 21.8 万吨；社库环 | | | | 比回落 15.27 万吨至 384.75 万吨，同比增加 82.36 万吨；厂库环比回落 6.59 万吨至 146.73 万吨，同比增加 | | | | 1.48 万吨；螺纹表需环比回落 2.85 万吨至 227.94 吨，同比增加 2.59 万吨。螺纹产量小幅回落，库存维持 | | | | 较明显下降，表需小幅回落，供 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四，玉米近月 | | 2601 合约减仓调整，期价以小阳线收盘。资金向 2603 合约转移。 当日，玉米 1 月合约冲高回落，3、5 月合约继续上行。现货市场中，产区、港 续上涨，目前农户仍较为惜售。 华北地区玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，山东深加工 | 震荡上涨 | | 口玉米报价上涨。东北产区玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，从各地价格上涨情 | | | | | 况来看，辽宁、吉林价格上涨幅度最为剧烈，黑龙江跟涨情况稍显一般，价格持 | | | | | 企业早间门前剩余车辆再次突破 | 玉米 | 1000 台以上，部分深加工企业价格窄幅下调 | | | 10-20 | | 元/吨。河北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。销区市场玉米价格继 | | | 续上涨。期货盘面仍偏强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户 | | | | | 售粮心态一般，上量一般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料 | | | | | 企业维持观望心态滚动建库。技术上 ...

Research Ratings - Stock Index: Volatile [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish [1] Core Views - The stock market's liquidity-driven rally since June has ended, and the market is refocusing on fundamentals. The new productive forces sector led by AI has optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the technology sector, with significant price increase expectations due to supply-demand mismatch and promising medium-term profitability. However, the market entered a volatile phase in November. Traditional economic sectors such as consumption and cyclical industries are still in the process of a volatile recovery, and it's difficult to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. The market volume and volatility are decreasing, and risk appetite is declining. It is expected that the index will be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also have divergent expectations, with doubts about the actual profitability of AI, the US government shutdown causing an economic data vacuum, and the Fed's hawkish stance on a December rate cut leading to a correction in US tech stocks last week [1]. - On November 27, the central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan. In terms of the money market, DR001 dropped 0.1 BP to 1.31%, and DR007 dropped 3 BP to 1.45%. With the central bank's continuous support, the liquidity is reasonably abundant. However, the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is not high, and the expectation of a central bank rate cut is low, so the bond market lacks upward momentum. In the short term, as November enters a brief domestic economic data vacuum period, the bond market is expected to remain in a narrow range [1][2]. Summary by Section 1. Research Views - **Stock Index**: On Thursday, the market rose and then fell throughout the day, with the three major indexes showing mixed results. The trading volume exceeded 1.72 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.44%. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On November 27, the central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to remain in a narrow range in the short term [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH decreased by 0.07%, IF decreased by 0.01%, IC decreased by 0.19%, and IM increased by 0.04% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.02%, the CSI 300 fell 0.05%, the CSI 500 fell 0.20%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.12% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.02%, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.11% [3]. 3. Market News - French President Macron will visit China in early December to discuss major issues in the comprehensive strategic partnership between France and China and several major international issues and cooperation areas [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the price trends, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates of treasury bond futures [13][16][17][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report displays the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [21][23][25][27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices will fluctuate due to the combined impact of supply increases and weak demand. OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable oil production policies in Q1 2026 and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms [1]. - Fuel oil prices will oscillate. The immediate supply is relatively sufficient, but high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by downstream demand [3]. - Asphalt prices will experience low - level oscillations. The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, but the price has shown relative stability around 3000 yuan/ton recently [3]. - PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate. PX has a strong fundamental expectation but a weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - Rubber prices have support. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported after the concentrated cancellation of natural rubber warehouse receipts [7]. - Methanol prices will oscillate with a short - term upward bias. The supply from Iran will decline, leading to a reduction in port inventory and a price rebound, but there is an upper limit to the price [7][9]. - Polyolefin prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken, but the low valuation may prompt downstream buying [9]. - PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but the export situation improves, and the basis is repaired [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, Brent January contract closed up $0.21 to $63.34/barrel, a 0.33% increase; SC2601 closed at 451.6 yuan/barrel, up 6.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% increase. OPEC+ meetings are planned on Sunday, with expectations of stable Q1 2026 production policies and an agreement on evaluating maximum production capacity mechanisms. Russia's oil revenue is under pressure, and the price will oscillate due to supply and demand factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 0.82% to 2471 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 1% to 3033 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah inventories increased. November's western - sourced low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals in Singapore are expected to be higher, but high freight rates may affect December arrivals. The price will oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan/ton. This week's domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises declined. Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price will oscillate at a low level [3]. - **PTA, EG, PX**: TA601 closed down 1.11% at 4632 yuan/ton; EG2601 closed down 0.59% at 3873 yuan/ton; PX01 closed down 0.83% at 6718 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expectation but weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 85 yuan/ton to 15280 yuan/ton, NR rose 40 yuan/ton to 12205 yuan/ton, and BR rose 40 yuan/ton to 10400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price has support [7]. - **Methanol**: The domestic supply is stable, but Iranian plants are shutting down due to gas restrictions. Port inventory is expected to decline from mid - December to early January, driving the price to rebound, but there is an upper limit [7][9]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the price of polyolefin products was low, and production was in a loss - making state. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price in the East China market was adjusted upwards. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but export obstacles are basically eliminated, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 27, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable Q1 2026 oil production policies and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms. Eight OPEC+ countries that increased production in 2025 are expected to keep their production suspension policies unchanged in Q1 2026 [16]. - Russia's Ural crude oil discount has widened, and the US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, increasing pressure on Russia's oil revenue [16]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [18][20][24] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][53] - **Inter - product Spreads**: Charts cover spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of LLDPE and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [77][78][79]