软商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.3%，报收 63.87 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 13740 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11985 手至 47.71 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | 震荡 | | | 14570 元/吨，较前一日下降 10 元/吨。国内市场方面，美联储 12 月议息会议临近， | | | | 降息 25bp 几成定局，关注官员讲话对后续降息路径的指引。国内市场方面，近期 | | | | 郑棉期价维持震荡走势。中共中央政治局于 12 月 8 日召开会议，后续还有中央经 | | | | 济工作会议，持续关注相关表述。基本面来看，从中国棉花信息网公布工商业库 | | | | 存数据反推，11 月棉花月度消费量仍保持相对高位，但是从半月度数据来看，11 | | | | 月下半月棉花消费量低于上半月棉花消费量，棉花上行驱动减弱。展望未来，当 | | | | 前扰动因素较多，多空因素交织，短期以震荡格局对待。随着时间的推移，棉花 | | | | 供需格局或有转 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面继续下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3079 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 44 元/吨，跌幅为 1.41%，持仓增加 11.6 万手。现货价格继续下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.26 万吨。中央政治局会议指出明年经济工作要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，相对 2024 年会议未再提 | | | | "超常规"，但提了"跨周期"，或预示 2026 年将会更加注重存量政策效应的释放，增量政策加码的可能 | | | | 性有所降低。煤焦价格近日连续下跌，钢厂利润扩大，对黑色系商品走势形成拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍 | | | | 窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格有所下跌，收于 757.5 元/吨，较前 ...

1. Index Trends - On December 09, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.37%, closing at 3909.52 points with a trading volume of 781.16 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of -0.39%, closing at 13277.36 points with a trading volume of 1122.793 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of -0.57% with a trading volume of 392.313 billion yuan, opening at 7400.93, closing at 7380.58, with a daily high of 7439.55 and a low of 7370.3 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index had a change of -0.71% with a trading volume of 305.522 billion yuan, opening at 7150.97, closing at 7121.33, with a daily high of 7185.11 and a low of 7103.83 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index had a change of -0.51% with a trading volume of 452.114 billion yuan, opening at 4611.38, closing at 4598.22, with a daily high of 4628.7 and a low of 4584.25 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index had a change of -0.71% with a trading volume of 110.095 billion yuan, opening at 3012.24, closing at 2997.96, with a daily high of 3015.45 and a low of 2991.65 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 dropped 42.47 points from the previous close, with sectors such as basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and non - ferrous metals significantly dragging down the index [2]. - The CSI 500 dropped 51.04 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector significantly boosting the index, while non - bank finance, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals sectors significantly dragging it down [2]. - The SSE 300 dropped 23.53 points from the previous close, with communication and electronics sectors significantly boosting the index, while food and beverage, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors significantly dragging it down [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 21.4 points from the previous close, with food and beverage, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors significantly dragging it down [2]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of -29.36, IM01 of -106.87, IM02 of -266.49, and IM03 of -512.42 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of -20.13, IC01 of -76.42, IC02 of -194.26, and IC03 of -402.83 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of -9.71, IF01 of -25.05, IF02 of -48.0, and IF03 of -93.78 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of -4.06, IH01 of -9.88, IH02 of -13.35, and IH03 of -28.39 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides 15 - minute average data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts [22][24][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy - chemical commodities market is weak, with most varieties showing an oscillating trend. Crude oil prices continue to decline due to increased expected global supply surplus and geopolitical factors; fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to maintain low - level oscillations [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. WTI January contract closed down $0.63 to $58.25/barrel, a 1.07% decline; Brent February contract closed down $0.55 to $61.94/barrel, a 0.88% decline; SC2601 closed at 443.4 yuan/barrel, down 5.9 yuan/barrel, a 1.31% decline. EIA raised the forecast of US oil production in 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, a record high. In 2026, the forecast was lowered by 50,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. The market is expected to be in a state of oscillation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 2.34% at 2,418 yuan/ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 closed down 1.7% at 3,014 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to factors such as replenishment of blending raw materials, increased inflow of arbitrage goods, and weak downstream demand. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is also under pressure due to sufficient arrival of arbitrage vessels and high inventories at ports. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.41% at 2,943 yuan/ton. Refinery winter storage policies are gradually being implemented. It is estimated that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years, between 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; EG2601 closed at 3,691 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. PX futures main contract 601 closed at 6,780 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The polyester market is expected to oscillate due to factors such as weak downstream demand and cost pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 80 yuan/ton to 14,985 yuan/ton, NR main contract rose 15 yuan/ton to 12,080 yuan/ton, and butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 10,450 yuan/ton. Due to improved weather in overseas producing areas, falling raw material prices, and insufficient demand support, the futures price is under pressure and expected to oscillate [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,075 yuan/ton. Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the significant destocking time may be postponed. Methanol prices are expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6,190 - 6,450 yuan/ton. Supply will remain high, while downstream orders and starts will weaken marginally. Polyolefins are expected to gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but due to low valuations, they are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the price of the East China PVC market was adjusted downward. Supply is expected to decline slightly this week, and domestic real - estate construction will gradually slow down, leading to a decline in the start - up rate of pipes and profiles. The PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data for multiple energy - chemical varieties on December 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA stated in its monthly short - term energy outlook report that the expected global supply surplus is increasing. US oil production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, with an upward adjustment of 20,000 barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day. In 2026, it is expected to decline by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [9]. - After talks in London, Ukrainian President Zelensky will share a revised peace plan with the US. The G7 and the EU are discussing replacing the price cap on Russian oil exports with a comprehensive shipping service ban [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][17][19][21][24][25][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][29][34][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [41][43][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as the internal - external spread of crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, the fuel oil/asphalt ratio, the BU/SC ratio, the ethylene glycol - PTA spread, the PP - LLDPE spread, and the natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][61][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won many awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, a finance master. She has won several awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC, an engineering master and an intermediate economist. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level III exam [75].

Research Views - The stock index market showed volatility and differentiation throughout the day, with the three major indices showing mixed performance. Over 4,000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 1.91 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61%. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term [1]. - The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury bond futures contracts rose 0.45%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively. The market is expected to continue its narrow-range oscillating trend within the year [1][2]. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025-12-09 | 2025-12-08 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,991.6 | 3,015.0 | -23.4 | -0.78% | | IF | 4,583.2 | 4,613.2 | -30.0 | -0.65% | | IC | 7,094.4 | 7,144.0 | -49.6 | -0.69% | | IM | 7,347.8 | 7,380.4 | -32.6 | -0.44% | [3] Stock Indices | Variety | 2025-12-09 | 2025-12-08 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite 50 | 2,998.0 | 3,019.4 | -21.4 | -0.71% | | CSI 300 | 4,598.2 | 4,621.8 | -23.5 | -0.51% | | CSI 500 | 7,121.3 | 7,172.4 | -51.0 | -0.71% | | CSI 1000 | 7,380.6 | 7,423.0 | -42.5 | -0.57% | [3] Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025-12-09 | 2025-12-08 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.43 | 102.41 | 0.018 | 0.02% | | TF | 105.79 | 105.75 | 0.04 | 0.04% | | T | 107.98 | 107.91 | 0.07 | 0.06% | | TL | 112.59 | 112.24 | 0.35 | 0.31% | [3] Market News - The market showed volatility and differentiation throughout the day, with the three major indices showing mixed performance. Over 4,000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 1.91 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61% [4]. - The commercial spaceflight concept remained active, with stocks such as Shaanxi Huada and Aerospace Changfeng hitting the daily limit. On the downside, the Hainan Free Trade Zone sector declined, with New Dazhou A hitting the daily limit down [4]. - The computing power hardware stocks continued to be strong, with many stocks such as Dekeli and Yueling Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit. The Fujian sector continued to strengthen, with more than a dozen stocks such as Anji Food and Longzhou Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC futures contracts, as well as their respective basis trends [6][7][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of Treasury bond futures contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][15][17]. Exchange Rates - The report includes charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates, currency indices, and cross - currency exchange rates [20][21][23]

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米减仓下行，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓调整，资金向 3 月和 5 月合约转 | 震荡下行 | | | 移。周一，在玉米 1 月合约下跌拖累下，远期合约跟随下跌，期价呈现高位调整 | | | | 表现。现货市场方面，周末华北地区深加工企业门前到货量一般，玉米价格稳中 | | | | 偏强运行。东北地区玉米价格持续上涨，市场短期看涨情绪较高，但华北地区整 | | | | 体有其固有的节奏，目前农户售粮节奏依然保持相对缓慢，市场供应变现为阶段 | | | 玉米 | 性的宽松和收紧，深加工企业玉米价格维持窄幅调整，变动幅度有限。周末销区 | | | | 市场玉米价格基本维持稳定。上周经过连续涨价后，销区下游企业采购力继续减 | | | | 弱，高价玉米成交一般，市场多维持观望心态。周末整体市场无较大波动，上涨 | | | | 情绪减弱。技术上，玉米 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行 | | | | 遇阻，动力不足。短期来看，玉米呈现技术调整要求， ...

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米减仓下行，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓调整，资金向 3 月和 5 月合约转 | 震荡下行 | | | 移。周一，在玉米 1 月合约下跌拖累下，远期合约跟随下跌，期价呈现高位调整 | | | | 表现。现货市场方面，周末华北地区深加工企业门前到货量一般，玉米价格稳中 | | | | 偏强运行。东北地区玉米价格持续上涨，市场短期看涨情绪较高，但华北地区整 | | | | 体有其固有的节奏，目前农户售粮节奏依然保持相对缓慢，市场供应变现为阶段 | | | 玉米 | 性的宽松和收紧，深加工企业玉米价格维持窄幅调整，变动幅度有限。周末销区 | | | | 市场玉米价格基本维持稳定。上周经过连续涨价后，销区下游企业采购力继续减 | | | | 弱，高价玉米成交一般，市场多维持观望心态。周末整体市场无较大波动，上涨 | | | | 情绪减弱。技术上，玉米 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行 | | | | 遇阻，动力不足。短期来看，玉米呈现技术调整要求， ...

工业硅日报 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8675 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.98%，持仓 减仓 9856 手至 18.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9648 元/吨，较上一交易 日下调 35 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8900 元/吨，现货升水扩至 225 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 54545 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.65%，持仓减仓 18624 手至 7.94 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收 至 2245 元/吨。工业硅厂进一步减产但不及下游采购跌量，当前成交集中 在套保单或未交付前期订单，工业硅短期难见趋势。光伏产业链自下而上 延续高库存、降排产逻辑，降价情绪未向上蔓延。随着交易所提保限仓且 针对交割品进行扩容，市场多头资金部分撤离，晶硅跳空回调。由于近月 仓单增长较慢，盘面虚实偏高给予当前近月支撑，不建议投资者过度追 空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUT ...

软商品日报 一、研究观点 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） | 品种 | 点评 周一，ICE 美棉下跌 0.3%，报收 63.74 美分/磅，CF601 环比持平，报收 13750 元/ | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 8727 手至 48.91 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14580 元/吨，较前一日持平。国内市场方面，目前美联储 12 月降息 25BP 概率几成定局， 市场关注官员讲话对后续降息路径的指引。昨夜美元指数走势偏强，美棉期价重 心下移。基本面来看，2025/26 年度美棉整体供需格局相对宽松，美棉出口数据偏 | | | | 弱，拖累美棉上行空间，关注即将公布 USDA12 月报。国内市场方面，近期郑棉 | | | 棉花 | 期价维持震荡走势。消息面，中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 | 震荡 | | | 年经济工作，市场情绪提振，股指上行。基本面来看，近期多空因素均有。供应 | | | | 端的总量是压力之一；当前是传统淡季周期，需求能否持续存疑是压力之二；服 | | | | 装出 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 9 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 760.5 | 769.0 | -8.5 | I05-I09 | 23.5 | 25.0 | -1.5 | | I09 | 737.0 | 744.0 | -7.0 | I09-I01 | -41.5 | -41.5 | 0.0 | | I01 | 778.5 | 785.5 | -7.0 | I01-I05 | 18.0 | 16.5 | 1.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 图表3：基差标的：巴西粉矿（单位：元/吨） 图表4：基差标的：澳洲中品粉矿（单位：元/吨） 0 20 40 60 80 ...