Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market showed a mixed trend with the three major indices rising and falling. Over 2,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed higher, and the trading volume on this day was 2.71 trillion yuan. The Fed's dovish stance led to market expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year, benefiting the A - share market. Shanghai's adjustment of housing policies boosted the real estate and banking sectors. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to be an important way to drive inflation back up. The liquidity - driven market will continue, but funds are concentrating on index components and technology stocks, with short - term volatility increasing and long - term upward potential [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, Treasury bond futures closed with gains across the board. The central bank conducted 405.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 474.5 billion yuan. Although there were no significant changes in the short - term capital and fundamental aspects, market risk appetite rebounded. The dovish remarks of the Fed Chairman increased expectations of a September interest rate cut in the US and domestic monetary policy easing, leading to a rebound in the bond market. However, the strong performance of the stock market will be a short - term negative factor for the bond market, and short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate at high levels [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH contract decreased by 0.71% to 2,970.8; the IF contract remained unchanged at 4,474.6; the IC contract increased by 0.10% to 6,916.4; the IM contract increased by 0.04% to 7,415.4 [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index decreased by 0.67% to 2,969.8; the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.37% to 4,452.6; the CSI 500 Index increased by 0.18% to 6,964.1; the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.02% to 7,476.5 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS contract decreased by 0.02% to 102.39; the TF contract increased by 0.02% to 105.56; the T contract increased by 0.04% to 108.00; the TL contract increased by 0.43% to 117.30 [3]. 3.2 Market News - On August 26, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded to Trump's expected visit to China. China adheres to the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win - win cooperation in handling Sino - US relations, hopes that the US will work together, and emphasizes the strategic leading role of head - of - state diplomacy in Sino - US relations [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of the corresponding basis of these contracts [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the historical trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical trends of Treasury bond spot yields, the historical trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the historical trends of the inter - delivery spreads of these Treasury bond futures, and the historical trends of cross - variety spreads and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and the exchange rates between major currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [21][22][25][27]. 3.4 Member Introduction - The report introduces two members: Zhu Jintao, the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, and Wang Dongying, an index analyst mainly responsible for stock index futures research [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is weak this week compared to last week. The purchase price at the northern ports continues to decline, and the arrival of goods is limited. The purchase price of deep - processing enterprises is also weak. The supply increases in the short term, and the market has a strong bearish expectation. The futures price of the near - month contract leads the decline, and the far - month contract follows. It is necessary to pay attention to the price performance of the 2511 contract at the 2150 integer mark and be vigilant against the rebound after a sharp decline [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell from a two - month high. The export inspection volume of US soybeans last week was 382,000 tons, and the previous week's inspection volume was revised up to 503,000 tons. The good rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the expected 67%. Brazil's soybean exports in the first four weeks of August increased by 24% year - on - year. Domestic soybean meal stopped falling and stabilized. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal of major domestic oil mills increased last week, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. The market transaction improved. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in the positive spread between months [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: BMD palm oil fell. The export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% - 16.4% month - on - month. Indonesia urged the EU to cancel the anti - subsidy tax on imported biodiesel. Canadian canola futures closed lower. The domestic three major vegetable oils fluctuated, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil performing stronger than palm oil. The inventory pressure increased, and the demand was still weak. If the spot demand starts later, the supply - demand situation of oils and fats is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The main 2510 contract of eggs fluctuated and adjusted, and the 2509 contract rebounded. The spot price of eggs increased slightly. After the previous price correction, the terminal demand was slightly boosted, but most traders purchased on demand. In the future, egg demand will enter the peak season, and the egg price may have a seasonal rebound, but the rebound strength is limited due to supply pressure. The short - term market sentiment is bearish, and the futures market continues to be weak [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The main 2511 contract of live pigs futures closed up 0.51%. The futures price continued the range - bound market. The spot price of live pigs decreased slightly. Some large farms increased their slaughter, and the supply increased, while the demand support was general. According to the seasonal law, the demand will recover as the high - temperature weather subsides, and the pig price has support, but the abundant supply still exerts pressure on the pig price. The pig price is expected to remain volatile [2]. 3. Market Information - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 was 1,141,661 tons (ITS data), a 10.9% increase compared with the same period last month, and 1,065,005 tons (Amspec data), a 16.4% increase [3]. - The overall supply of spring plastic - film peanuts in Henan is still low, and the supply area is expected to expand at the end of August. The price may decline slightly in the short term before the large - scale listing of new peanuts. The purchase price of Henan Daza peanuts from late August to early September is expected to be between 7,800 - 8,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased this week, and the prices of domestic soybean oil and soybean meal decreased slightly. The crushing profit of imported soybeans in China declined. As of August 22, the crushing profit of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipments was - 147~ - 115 yuan/ton on the futures market and - 57~ - 25 yuan/ton in the spot market. More than 70% of the soybeans for October shipments have been purchased, and only 10% for November [3]. - The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills decreased slightly last week. As of August 22, the crushing volume was 2.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 220,000 tons, and an increase of 350,000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will remain high this week, and the crushing volume will rebound to about 2.5 million tons [3]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spread**: The report provides the 1 - 5 contract spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides the contract basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these bases is given [12][13][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated higher, and domestic copper trended slightly stronger. The Fed Chair's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium cleared the way for a September rate cut, but market concerns about high - inflation data may pose obstacles. Seasonal demand is expected to pick up as the off - season ends. There are expectations of restocking by domestic processing enterprises and rapid destocking of social inventories, which could drive LME copper into a destocking phase and support price stabilization. However, the potential upside in September may be limited compared to the first half of the year [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended weakly, while Shanghai aluminum trended slightly stronger. Alumina's复产 rhythm is increasing, and the expectation of oversupply is pressuring prices. Cost support is strengthening due to reduced bauxite shipments during the rainy season and potential mining restrictions during the September 3 parade. Aluminum prices are supported by a decline in domestic aluminum ingot inflows and increased downstream restocking. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventories and US rate - cut trends [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, Shanghai nickel rose 0.05%. Domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The overall fundamentals changed little, with no prominent contradictions in the industrial chain, and prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors include the Fed's dovish stance and market inflation concerns. Inventory changes show a decrease in LME copper inventory, an increase in Comex copper inventory, and a decrease in SHFE copper warehouse receipts. Seasonal demand is expected to improve, and there are restocking expectations in the domestic market, which may support price stabilization [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices are under pressure due to increased复产 and inventory accumulation, but cost support limits deep declines. Aluminum prices are supported by reduced inflows and increased downstream restocking, and the formation of a cyclical inflection point needs further confirmation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rose slightly, with a decrease in domestic SHFE warehouse receipts. The fundamentals are stable, and prices are likely to move in a range [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 575 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 0.8 million tons. The active - contract import profit and loss improved by 550 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 100 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased by 1154 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased. The social inventory of alumina decreased by 2.2 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 750 yuan/ton. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 260 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.5%. The social inventory increased by 0.74 million tons on a weekly basis [5]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price increased by 1.0%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 301 tons on a weekly basis [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premiums**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - **LME Inventories**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventories**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventories**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, and stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profits**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fees, aluminum smelting profits, nickel - iron smelting costs, zinc smelting profits, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margins from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures, with extensive experience in commodity research and many awards. Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, both provide in - depth reports and policy interpretations for clients [49][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 25, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.3% to 79,380 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 82,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped 1,400 yuan/ton to 80,200 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 160 yuan/ton to 77,330 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 640 tons to 25,630 tons [3]. - Fundamentally, on the supply side, production slowed down slightly, mainly due to the suspension of mica production. In the future, with the previous price increase and the increase in overseas imports, lithium extraction from spodumene is expected to continue to increase. Currently, the high成交 price of ore still supports the price of lithium carbonate. On the demand side, the total demand in August increased by 6% month - on - month. September is the traditional peak season, downstream production scheduling is expected to remain strong, and downstream inventory replenishment willingness is strong. The social inventory remains at 141,000 tons, showing a two - week slight de - stocking state, and the downstream procurement behavior has increased [3]. - The production problems of known resource projects have basically been settled. After the rapid price increase last week, there is short - term callback pressure, waiting for new disturbing factors to drive the price. In the short term, pay attention to the成交 price of lithium ore, and in the medium term, focus on the progress of other projects that need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 79,380 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan from August 22; the closing price of the continuous contract was 79,580 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was $925/ton, down $9; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,265 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,995 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 6,685 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,735 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,500 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 80,200 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 77,330 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 82,300 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 72,210 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was $8.85/kg, unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price was 56,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Price Difference**: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 5,170 yuan/ton, up 1,240 yuan; CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 14,352.52 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [5]. - **Precursor and Cathode Materials**: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 77,265 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 76,830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 72,620 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 90,795 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 114,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 119,525 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 117,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 145,950 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 35,810 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) was 34,410 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 31,550 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 36,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 227,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.385 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.4 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.33 yuan/piece, up 0.01 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.325 yuan/Wh, up 0.002 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.33 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 5.75 yuan/Ah, up 0.2 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.301 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Price**: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Price**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - **Price Difference**: Charts present the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) - domestic, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [19][22][24]. - **Precursor and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][27][29]. - **Lithium Battery Price**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][34]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025 [38][40][41]. - **Production Cost**: A chart shows the production cost trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, 外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2025 [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is weak this week compared to last week. The futures price of the corn main contract 2511 continued to decline on Monday, with near - month contracts leading the fall. It is expected to be in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the price performance at the 2150 integer level of the November contract [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price fell from a two - month high on Monday. Domestic soybean meal stopped falling and stabilized, showing strength. The strategy is to maintain a unilateral long - term thinking and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: The BMD palm oil price fell on Monday. Domestic three major vegetable oils were mainly volatile, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil performing stronger than palm oil. The overall inventory pressure increased, and the demand side was still weak. If the spot demand starts later, the supply - demand situation of oils and fats is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The market is in a bullish trend, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg main contract 2510 oscillated and adjusted on Monday, with the near - month contract 2509 rebounding. The spot price of eggs increased slightly. In the future, egg demand will enter the peak season, but considering the supply pressure, the rebound strength is limited. The short - term market sentiment is bearish, and the futures will continue to be weak [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of the pig main contract 2511 continued to oscillate in the range on Monday. The spot price of pigs decreased slightly. According to seasonal rules, as the high - temperature weather subsides, demand will recover, but the abundant supply still exerts pressure on pig prices. The view on pig prices is volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Palm Oil Exports**: Ship - surveying agencies ITS and Amspec data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% - 16.4% compared to the same period last month [3]. - **Henan Peanuts**: The overall supply of spring - film peanuts in Henan is still low. Before the large - scale listing of new peanuts, prices may decline slightly. It is expected that the purchase price of Henan Dazahua peanuts from late August to early September will be between 7800 - 8500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Soybean Import and Processing**: The cost of importing Brazilian soybeans has risen this week, and the prices of domestic soybean oil and soybean meal have fallen slightly, resulting in a decline in the profit of importing and processing soybeans. As of August 22, the domestic main oil mills' soybean crushing volume decreased slightly last week, and it is expected to rebound to about 2.5 million tons this week [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][6][10][14]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][16][18][23].

Group 1: Index Movements - On August 25th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51% to close at 3883.56 points with a trading volume of 1360.904 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26% to close at 12441.07 points with a trading volume of 1780.233 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.56% with a trading volume of 660.911 billion yuan, opening at 7418.35, closing at 7477.73, with a daily high of 7504.01 and a low of 7405.94 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.89% with a trading volume of 574.923 billion yuan, opening at 6886.27, closing at 6951.9, with a daily high of 6967.8 and a low of 6863.93 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 2.08% with a trading volume of 823.682 billion yuan, opening at 4416.29, closing at 4469.22, with a daily high of 4472.65 and a low of 4404.78 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 2.09% with a trading volume of 231.307 billion yuan, opening at 2950.65, closing at 2989.85, with a daily high of 2989.85 and a low of 2943.98 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 114.79 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as computer significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 129.05 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 91.22 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and communication significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 61.24 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverage significantly pulling the index up [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 29.8, IM01 of - 76.71, IM02 of - 181.65, and IM03 of - 333.67 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 24.37, IC01 of - 58.94, IC02 of - 142.99, and IC03 of - 263.16 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of 4.56, IF01 of - 1.2, IF02 of - 12.32, and IF03 of - 30.06 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 3.85, IH01 of 3.69, IH02 of 5.93, and IH03 of 9.61 [12]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc [27]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc [23]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc [24]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc [26].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | | | | | | | | | 观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周一尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，主力01合约收盘价1745元/吨，微幅下跌0.17%。现货 | | | | | | | | | 震荡 | | | | | | 市场明显走弱，主流地区现货价格下调幅度20~50元/吨不等，山东、河南地区市场 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 价格分别为1700元/吨、1710元/吨，均较上周五跌40元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 水平高位波动，昨日行业日产量19.23万吨，日环比减少0.36万吨。阅兵前后仍需关 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 注北方地区尿素生产是否受限。需求端跟进偏慢，主流地区现货产销率昨日在20%~ | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short - term, driven by macro sentiment. After the new cotton is launched, it will face both the impact of increased supply and the potential "scramble for purchase" risk. Attention should be paid to the purchase price of seed cotton, as well as macro, weather, and expected opening price [2]. - Sugar is expected to continue its narrow - range volatile market until new information breaks the balance. The domestic market is in the double - festival stocking period with moderate trading, and the international market is still trading around the Brazilian sugar - crushing progress [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.93% to 67.38 cents per pound, while CF601 rose 0.75% to 14,120 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 19,701 lots to 504,600 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,100 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,235 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan. The international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, and the release of a 200,000 - ton sliding - duty quota for cotton in 2025 in the domestic market eases some concerns about inventory shortages [2]. - **Sugar**: As of the week ending August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 76 to 70, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 401,000 tons to 2.9169 million tons, a 12.08% decline. Spot prices in some regions were adjusted slightly. The raw - sugar market is still in a volatile state with insufficient driving forces [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45 yuan, up 5 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1,115 yuan, down 98 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,100 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,235 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 42 yuan, up 1 yuan; the main - contract basis was 307 yuan, down 18 yuan. The spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged at 5,970 yuan per ton and 5,995 yuan per ton respectively [3]. Market Information - On August 25, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 94 to 7,104, with 63 valid forecasts. Cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data changed slightly [4]. - On August 25, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged, and the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 170 to 15,385, with 1 valid forecast [4][5]. Chart Analysis - Charts show the historical data of cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of these two commodities [7][15]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面偏强震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3138 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 19 元/吨，涨幅为 0.61%，持仓减少 6.38 万手。现货价格小幅上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3050 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 30 元/吨至 3280 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 11.1 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存增加 4.88%至 464.19 万吨，热卷库存增加 3.97%至 204.34 万吨， | | | | 库存继续明显增加，但增幅有所放缓。据海关数据，7 月棒线材出口 159.07 万吨，同比大幅增长 77.25%； | | | | 7 月钢坯出口 157.98 万吨，同比大幅增长 355.53%。棒线材及钢坯出口大幅增长，在很大程度上缓解了国 | | | | 内螺纹市场供应压力。预计短期螺纹盘面窄幅整理运行为 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On August 25th, industrial silicon showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.06%, and the open interest increased by 9,744 lots to 289,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,478 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 55 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,580 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.73%, and the open interest decreased by 5,596 lots to 139,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed feedstock rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 7,060 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased with the rising price of silicon coal. Silicon plants sold a large amount of products to traders, while downstream purchases were relatively small. The upward and downward space was narrowing, and the adjustment rhythm continued. After the anti-involution efforts, the price of polysilicon was basically under control. With the production resumption in the southwest region, the social inventory and warehouse receipts continued to increase, but the industrial clearance had not been effectively promoted, and the pattern of separation between volume and price of polysilicon continued to expand [2]. - The market is currently highly focused on the photovoltaic industry meeting jointly held by six ministries and commissions. The policy may gradually shift from direct production control to linking with production capacity and technical indicators. The dynamics of the anti-involution meeting have an absolute driving force on the short-term market and may guide the correction of expectations and the callback of the premium. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting at high levels. The implementation details of the energy-saving special supervision to be launched by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology before the end of September may be updated, and continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions driven by policies [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend on August 25th. The cost of industrial silicon increased, and the price adjustment continued. The polysilicon market faced inventory pressure, and the separation between volume and price continued to expand. The market is highly concerned about the photovoltaic industry meeting, and policy dynamics may affect the market [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts increased. The prices of most spot varieties also showed an upward trend, with the price of the lowest deliverable product rising by 50 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowing by 75 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 2,250 tons. The total social inventory increased by 2,400 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts increased. The prices of most spot varieties rose, with the price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed feedstock increasing by 3,500 yuan/ton to 49,000 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained unchanged, and the spot discount widened by 155 yuan/ton to 7,060 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 28,000 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: The report presents charts on industrial silicon prices, price differences between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15]. - **Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][21]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts illustrate the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [24][26][30].