1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is facing multi - dimensional challenges. Geopolitical factors such as the recurring Russia - Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela, along with the prominent contradiction of supply surplus during the off - season of demand, lead to the repeated and volatile operation of oil prices. All varieties in the energy and chemical sector are expected to show an oscillating trend [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices continued to decline. The WTI January contract closed down $0.86 at $57.60 per barrel, a 1.47% drop; the Brent February contract closed down $0.93 at $61.28 per barrel, a 1.49% drop; SC2601 closed at 435.6 yuan per barrel, down 5.6 yuan per barrel, a 1.27% decline. OPEC+ increased production slightly in November, and both OPEC and IEA made adjustments to their supply and demand forecasts for next year. The oil market is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.57% to 2382 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2602 fell 0.67% to 2986 yuan per ton. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure, and it is expected that the current supply - driven market fundamentals will continue until January next year. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to remain low and oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.92% to 2960 yuan per ton. The social inventory rate decreased, the refinery inventory level increased, and the plant operating rate decreased. The winter storage policy of refineries is gradually being implemented, and it is predicted that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 1.04% to 4664 yuan per ton; EG2601 fell 2.25% to 3599 yuan per ton. PX is expected to face pressure at the end of the year. TA prices are expected to decline with cost pressure, and ethylene glycol prices are under pressure with long - term inventory accumulation risks [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15185 yuan per ton; the NR main contract remained unchanged at 12270 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 10710 yuan per ton. The improvement of overseas production area weather, the impact of border conflicts on rubber tapping, and limited demand support led to a slight rebound in rubber futures prices [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter the destocking stage from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the time may be postponed. Methanol prices have an upper limit, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply will remain high, and downstream demand will weaken. However, due to the low valuation, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Some devices are planned to reduce production this week, and domestic real - estate construction will slow down. The overall fundamentals are bearish, but the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the repair of the basis [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on December 11, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the OPEC+ alliance slightly increased production in November, and maintained the forecast of relatively strong demand growth for next year. The production in November was 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The average demand for OPEC+ crude oil in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be 42.6 million barrels per day, and 43 million barrels per day for the whole year [12]. - The IEA lowered its forecast of the global oil supply surplus for next year for the first time since May. The global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 4.09 million barrels per day. The expected increase in global oil supply next year is 2.4 million barrels per day, and the expected increase in demand is 860,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous forecast. The EIA also raised the forecast of oil demand growth in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc [15][16]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [33]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc [46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external markets, fuel oil's high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc [63]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The production profit charts of LLDPE and PP are presented [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [76][77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [81].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报 | 看，DR001 下行 下行 0.05BP | 1BP | 至 | 1.28%，DR007 | 至 | 1.45%。11 | 月初央行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 买卖国债利好落地，此外 和买断式逆回购继续延续净投放，资金面整 | | | MLF | | | | | 体宽松，但市场对于央行降息的预期较低，债市呈现利好出尽行情，国债收 | | | | | | | | 益率震荡小幅上行，收益率曲线陡峭化。年内来看，资金宽松但降息预期较 | | | | | | | | 弱，经济边际走弱但整体保持韧性，通胀延续温和回升态势，预计年内延续 | | | | | | | | 窄幅震荡走势。 | | | | | | | 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日，A 股市场震荡下跌，TMT 及房地产板块均表现较弱。Wind 全 A 下跌 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.1%，成交额 1.89 万亿元，中证 1000 指数下跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The current supply trend is unclear, facing a game between gas - head enterprise load reduction, resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, and new production capacity output. Demand shows regional differentiation, and the inventory has decreased by 4.36%. The market may speculate on the expected increase in export policies next year, but there is no trend - upward momentum for now [2]. - The soda ash market is weak. With the output of Yuanxing Phase II and the launch of Xindu's new production capacity, the supply will increase. The demand has no obvious bright spots, and the downstream mainly replenishes inventory at low prices with limited large - scale reserve intention [2]. - The glass market is also weak. There is no change in the production line recently, and the daily melting volume remains at 155,000 tons. There is an expectation of a decline in in - production capacity. The demand follows up cautiously, and the glass factory still has the motivation to reduce prices to destock [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Urea**: On Wednesday, the urea futures price fluctuated widely, with the main 01 contract closing at 1645 yuan/ton. The spot market showed mixed trends, with the mainstream regional price fluctuating between - 10 and + 10 yuan/ton. The daily output on the 10th was 199,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous day. The supply is in a game situation, and the demand has regional differences. The inventory decreased by 4.36% this week. The market may speculate on export policies, and it is recommended to treat it with a wide - range fluctuation mindset [2]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the soda ash futures price continued to weaken, with the main 01 contract closing at 1094 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.93%. The spot price remained stable, and the trading volume was affected by the futures sentiment. The industry's operating rate on the 10th was 80.22%. Supply will increase, and demand has no obvious bright spots. The futures market is in the process of contract roll - over, and the market is expected to be weak [2]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the glass futures price continued to weaken, with the main 01 contract closing at 964 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.13%. The spot price was mostly stable. The daily melting volume remained at 155,000 tons, and there is an expectation of production line cold - repair. The demand follows up cautiously, and the market lacks momentum. The glass factory has the motivation to reduce prices to destock [2]. Market Information - **Urea**: On December 10, the futures warehouse receipts were 11,228, a decrease of 249 from the previous day, with 720 valid forecasts. The daily output was 199,000 tons, the same as the previous day and an increase of 11,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 82.31%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory decreased by 56,300 tons, or 4.36% compared to the previous week [5][6]. - **Soda Ash & Glass**: On December 10, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 7,057, a decrease of 724 from the previous day, with 1,563 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 327, an increase of 303 from the previous day. The soda ash industry's operating rate was 80.22%, remaining the same as the previous day. The average price of the float glass market was 1,097 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day, and the daily output was 155,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous day [8][9]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of urea and soda ash, as well as the price difference between different contracts and the price trend of spot goods. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [11][13][15][18][20][22][23]. Research Team Introduction The resource product research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different aspects of research and have rich experience and many honors [25].

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-12-11 一、指数走势 12 月 10 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.23%，收于 3900.5 点，成交额 7303.6 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.29%，收于 13316.42 点，成交额 10481.45 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.37%，成交额 3602.45 亿元，其中开盘价 7367.49，收盘价 7408.24，当日最高价 7421.42，最低价 7332.05； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.49%，成交额 2804.95 亿元，其中开盘价 7111.57，收盘价 7155.99，当日最高价 7171.97，最低价 7070.48； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.14%，成交额 4014.53 亿元，其中开盘价 4586.25，收盘价 4591.83，当日最高价 4598.54，最低价 4549.08； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-0.31%，成交额 1013.34 亿元，其中开盘价 2994.15，收盘价 2988.64，当日最高价 2996.21，最低价 2970.59。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指 ...

碳酸锂日报 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约涨 2.56%至 95980 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 50 元 /吨至 92700 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 100 元/吨至 90250 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒） 维持 81930 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 760 吨至 13680 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 74 吨至 21939 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 120 吨至 13484 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 55 吨至 3076 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 145 吨至 3090 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 44 吨至 2289 吨；12 月碳酸锂产量预计环比增加 3%至 98210 吨，其中锂云母提锂、锂辉石提锂环比增加， 盐湖提锂、回收提锂环比下滑。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比减少 564 吨至 18697 吨，库存环比 减少 519 吨至 18842 吨；周度磷酸铁锂产量环比减少 233 吨至 95480 吨，库存环比减少 660 吨至 103681 吨；周度动力电池合计产量环比增加 0.7%至 29.87GWh，其中磷酸铁锂环比增加 0.6%至 22. ...

Group 1: Research Views - Overnight copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weakly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and started short - term Treasury bond purchases. The dot - plot shows one expected 25 - basis - point cut next year. China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI's year - on - year decline slightly widened. Copper prices are in a pattern of fundamental (inventory) support and short - term macro disturbances, and should be viewed with cautious optimism [1]. - Overnight alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy prices fluctuated strongly. Alumina supply remains high, and inventory pressure increases. The aluminum price followed the copper - aluminum ratio repair logic, but the follow - up strength is weakening [1][2]. - Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. Nickel prices may still fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and overseas industrial policy changes [3]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 10, 2025, the price of flat - copper decreased by 505 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the total inventory (weekly) decreased by 9025 tons [5]. - **Lead**: On December 10, 2025, the average price of 1 lead decreased by 120 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the inventory (weekly) decreased by 3064 tons [5]. - **Aluminum**: On December 10, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the total inventory (weekly) increased by 8353 tons [6]. - **Nickel**: On December 10, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1125 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the nickel inventory (weekly) increased by 1726 tons [6]. - **Zinc**: On December 10, 2025, the main settlement price decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous day, and the social inventory (weekly) decreased by 0.17 tons [8]. - **Tin**: On December 10, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.6% compared to the previous day, and the SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 506 tons [8]. Group 3: Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [10][12][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the smelting profit - related trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and stainless steel 304 from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly researching lithium and nickel [48].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.41%，报收 64.12 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.15%，报收 13780 现货价格指数 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 5219 手至 47.33 万手，棉花 3128B | | | | 14590 元/吨，较前一日上涨 20 元/吨。国内市场方面，美联储 12 月议息会议如期 | | | | 降息 25BP，但点阵图显示票委们对后续降息路径有一定分歧，美元指数反应为震 | | | | 荡走弱，美棉期价重心小幅上移。国内市场方面，近期郑棉期价维持震荡走势。 | | | 棉花 | 中央经济工作会议将于近日召开，持续关注。基本面来看，从中国棉花信息网公 | 震荡 | | | 布工商业库存数据反推，11 月棉花月度消费量仍保持相对高位，但是从半月度数 | | | | 据来看，11 月下半月棉花消费量低于上半月棉花消费量，棉花上行驱动减弱。展 | | | | 望未来，扰动因素较多，多空因素交织，短期以 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 1 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2601-2605 -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 2105-2109 2205-2209 2305-2309 2405-2409 2505-2509 2605-2609 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 769.0 | 757 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 点评 10 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8250 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.19%，持仓 减仓 13514 手至 17.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/吨，较上一交 易日下调 23 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 600 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 55915 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.62%，持仓减仓 13915 手至 54959 手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩 至 3615 元/吨。工业硅厂进一步减产但不及下游采购跌量，当前成交集中 在套保单或未交付前期订单，工业硅短期难见趋势。光伏产业链自下而上 延续高库存、降排产逻辑，降价情绪未向上蔓延。近月仓单增长较慢，盘 面虚实偏高给予当前近月支撑，叠加收储公司注册消息给予情绪推动，晶 硅延续高位格局。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周三，玉米主力 2603 合约在 20 日均线支撑处企稳反弹，期价上行基本收复前日 跌幅，长期趋势线对价格提供支撑。现货市场方面，受期价下跌拖累，产区现货 | 震荡 | | | 玉米收购报价下调。今日华北地区深加工企业玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，基层价格 | | | | 基本维持稳定。随着期货价格出现下跌和政策性拍卖消息的发酵，市场看涨预期 | | | | 有所收敛，贸易商出货积极性增强，今日山东深加工玉米到货量突破 1000 台， | | | | 部分深加工价格下跌 10-20 元/吨。基层购销活跃度依然不高，粮点收购量较前 | | | | 期有所好转，但依然处于较低的水平。今日销区市场玉米价格继续窄幅下调。北 | | | | 港收购价格下跌，销区港口报价今日跟随下调 10 元/吨。销区下游饲料企业头寸 | | | | 时间拉长后对于市场跌价采购积极性不高，市场成交可小幅议价。技术上，玉米 | | | | 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行遇阻， ...