1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated, and coal mine over - production inspections have boosted market sentiment [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term, with a decline in global shipments and a decrease in iron - making water production [1]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend in the short term. The over - production inspection of coal mines affects the supply side, and the profit of coke enterprises has been repaired, with stable demand [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend in the short term. Market news has a certain impact on market sentiment, but has not yet affected supply and demand [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The price of rebar futures rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3233 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. Spot prices also increased. The issuance of new local government special bonds accelerated, and coal mine over - production inspections boosted sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2509 rose to 798.5 yuan/ton, up 1%. Global shipments decreased, iron - making water production declined, and port inventories decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1035 yuan/ton, up 2.93%. The over - production inspection of coal mines affected the supply side, and coke enterprises still had certain restocking needs. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1634.5 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. After the fifth price increase of coke, the profit of coke enterprises was further repaired, and demand was stable. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6018 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. Market news had a certain impact on sentiment, but "anti - involution" had not affected supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating with support at the bottom [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5716 yuan/ton, up 1.03%. The cost increased, and supply continued to rise. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of various contracts such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 73.0, down 6.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 127.0, down 9.0 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various varieties increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Shanghai rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Profits such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit increased. Cross - variety spreads such as the coil - rebar spread and the rebar - iron ore ratio also changed [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., over different time periods [19][20][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., over different time periods [27][29][31]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: It includes spread trend charts of cross - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Rebar Profits**: It provides profit trend charts of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional expertise [54][55].

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 8 月 6 日） 工业硅日报 一、研究观点 点评 5 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 8450 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.02%，持 仓减仓 24386 手至 15.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9440 元/吨，较 上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格回落至 8800 元/吨，现货升水 收至 310 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 50330 元/吨，日内 涨幅 3.88%，持仓增仓 20838 手至 12.8 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价 格跌至 44500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 44500 元/吨，现货贴水 扩至 4325 元/吨。多晶硅政策预期见顶、估值出现瓶颈，市场关注转向 产业供应压力和需求弱态结构，现货锚定成本定价，期货中枢跟随高 品仓单溢价，产能整合动态消息给予盘面阶段升水。在多晶硅产能集 中整合和工业硅西南复产节奏中，持续跟踪空 SI 多 PS 机会。工业硅将 以电价补贴取消后成本为基准，西南复产成为边际驱动项。重点关注 政策落地情况，警惕产能收储或电价改革延迟，多头情绪下的退潮踩 踏风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部 ...

Group 1: Research Views - The implementation of the Childcare Subsidy System nationwide is expected to be an important path to stabilize and boost China's inflation. The recent stock market rally is driven by long - term, medium - term, and short - term factors. It's advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions. The outlook for the stock index is "volatile", and for treasury bonds is "bullish" [1] - On August 6, 2025, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 28.85 billion yuan. Short - term treasury bonds are expected to run strongly [1][2] Group 2: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, IH rose 20.6 points (0.74%), IF rose 29.2 points (0.72%), IC rose 29.6 points (0.48%), and IM rose 39.4 points (0.59%) [3] Stock Indexes - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 21.3 points (0.77%), the CSI 300 rose 32.7 points (0.80%), the CSI 500 rose 41.5 points (0.66%), and the CSI 1000 rose 47.8 points (0.71%) [3] Treasury Bond Futures - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, TS remained unchanged (0.00%), TF rose 0.04 points (0.04%), T rose 0.07 points (0.06%), and TL rose 0.13 points (0.11%) [3] Group 3: Market News - The Passenger Car Association slightly raised its annual forecast for 2025. It predicts 24.35 million passenger car retail sales, a 6% increase, and 5.46 million passenger car exports, a 14% increase [4] Group 4: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - Charts show the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, IC, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][9] Treasury Bond Futures - Charts display the historical price trends of treasury bond futures, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][14][16] Exchange Rates - Charts present the historical trends of the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, euro - RMB exchange rate, forward exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [19][20][23]

Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the price center of oil continued to decline. The September contract of WTI closed down $1.13 to $65.16 per barrel, a decrease of 1.7%. The October contract of Brent closed down $1.12 to $67.64 per barrel, a decrease of 1.63%. The SC2509 closed at 502.5 yuan per barrel, down 6.6 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 1.3% [1]. - API data showed that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 860,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels [1]. - Cargo tracking data showed that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in July dropped to a five - month low. The crude oil shipped from Russian ports in July reached 3.46 million barrels per day, slightly lower than 3.47 million barrels per day in June and the lowest level since March [1]. - Russia's exports to India in July increased by 5% month - on - month to 1.72 million barrels per day. India started to purchase oil from the US and Canada. It is reported that Indian Oil Corporation bought crude oil from the US, Canada, and the Middle East through tender, scheduled to arrive in September [1]. - The market's concern about oversupply is significant, and the price center of oil continues to decline. The view is "volatile and weak" [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.94% at 2,842 yuan per ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 closed down 0.78% at 3,560 yuan per ton [1]. - In August, the supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil remains sufficient, and demand may show signs of weakening. The fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined. The view is "volatile and weak" [1][3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.58% at 3,544 yuan per ton [3]. - In August, some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans, and asphalt supply is expected to decrease. Refinery inventories are generally controllable, and North China's main refineries may continue low - production in the short term to deliver previous contracts, with limited supply growth. In the southern market, rainfall has decreased, demand is expected to improve, and terminal construction after the rainy season has positive support. The demand for modified asphalt in Shandong's highway projects has been released intensively, driving an increase in terminal capacity utilization [3]. - In the short term, the asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, and spot prices are relatively firm. The risk lies in the fluctuation of crude oil prices at the cost end. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes. The view is "volatile" [3]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,682 yuan per ton yesterday, down 0.34%; the spot offer was at a discount of 13 yuan per ton to the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,399 yuan per ton yesterday, up 0.23%, with the basis increasing by 3 yuan per ton to 83 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,463 yuan per ton. The main PX futures contract 509 closed at 6,734 yuan per ton, down 0.3%. The spot negotiation price was $839 per ton, equivalent to 6,901 yuan per ton in RMB, and the basis widened by 58 yuan per ton to 179 yuan per ton [3]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally light, with an average sales estimate of about 30%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is preparing to restart, and its 1.5 - million - ton PTA plant is expected to shut down for maintenance soon. A 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia shut down due to an accident recently, with an initial estimated shutdown time of about one week [3]. - OPEC+ continues to over - produce, the cost - end oil price is further pressured, downstream demand has resilience support, and the terminal operating load is at a low level in the off - season. TA prices are under pressure. The view is "volatile and weak" [3][5]. Rubber - On Tuesday, as of the day - session close, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 180 yuan per ton to 14,545 yuan per ton, the main NR contract rose 140 yuan per ton to 12,300 yuan per ton, and the main butadiene rubber BR contract rose 120 yuan per ton to 11,515 yuan per ton [5]. - The weather in rubber - producing areas is currently good, and raw material prices have loosened. Downstream demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and exports will decline, while domestic demand has stable growth. Fundamentally, rubber supply increases while demand is stable. With the peak season gradually materializing, there is pressure on the upside of rubber prices. The view is "volatile" [5]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,373 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,085 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $269 - 273 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $331 - 336 per ton. In the downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1,045 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2,280 - 2,350 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 5,050 yuan per ton [5]. - Overall, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in August, but the expected increase in imports in August is not large, and demand changes little. Although inventory increases month - on - month, it will not increase significantly year - on - year, and the total inventory level is relatively low year - on - year. It is expected that methanol prices will maintain a volatile trend [5]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,970 - 7,200 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP production was - 306.75 yuan per ton, the profit of coal - based PP production was 476.87 yuan per ton, the profit of methanol - based PP production was - 751.33 yuan per ton, the profit of propane - dehydrogenation - based PP production was - 229.24 yuan per ton, and the profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP production was 70.67 yuan per ton. For PE, the price of HDPE film was 7,956 yuan per ton, the price of LDPE film was 9,514 yuan per ton, and the price of LLDPE film was 7,403 yuan per ton. In terms of profit, the profit of oil - based polyethylene production was - 362 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based polyethylene production was 970 yuan per ton [6]. - In August, both supply and demand will start to recover, inventory will gradually transfer from society to downstream, and there are not many fundamental contradictions. Without a significant increase in the cost end, the overall upside space is limited. The view is "volatile" [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the price in the East China PVC market fluctuated slightly. The price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was 4,840 - 4,910 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was about 5,000 - 5,300 yuan per ton. In the North China PVC market, prices rose and fell. The mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was about 4,760 - 4,950 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 5,060 - 5,210 yuan per ton. In the South China PVC market, prices increased. The mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was about 4,900 - 4,970 yuan per ton, and the mainstream offer price of ethylene - based material was 5,020 - 5,100 yuan per ton [6]. - In August, the fundamental pressure on PVC has eased, and inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the market will gradually return to fundamental trading after the supply - side reform trading. The main contract will switch to V2501, which is in the off - season of consumption. It is expected that prices will be volatile and weak, and the basis and monthly spread will gradually strengthen [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on August 6, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, basis changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc [7]. Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 860,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels. Analysts previously expected a decrease of about 600,000 barrels in crude oil inventories, a decrease of about 400,000 barrels in gasoline inventories, and an increase of about 800,000 barrels in distillate inventories [11]. - Cargo tracking data showed that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in July dropped to a five - month low. The crude oil shipped from Russian ports in July reached 3.46 million barrels per day, slightly lower than 3.47 million barrels per day in June and the lowest level since March. Russia's exports to India in July increased by 5% month - on - month to 1.72 million barrels per day [11]. - Fed's Daly said that the time for interest - rate cuts is approaching, and two interest - rate cuts this year are still an appropriate adjustment. It is also possible that there will not be two interest - rate cuts this year, but it is more likely that more cuts will be needed [11]. - US President Trump said that he will meet with Russia tomorrow. He will "wait and see" regarding tariffs on Russia and "quite possibly" impose a 100% tariff on Russian oil [11]. Chart Analysis Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc [13][15][17]. Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc [27][29][33]. Inter - Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 09 - 01), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), etc [41][43][46]. Inter - Commodity Spreads - The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low - sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc [59][62][65]. Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc [69][70][72]. Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences introduced [74][75][76].

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.39%，报收 66.62 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 0.44%，报收 13675 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 21790 手至 30.4 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15069 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 110 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15153 元/吨，较 | | | | 前一日下降 107 元/吨。国际市场方面，美国非农数据大幅低于市场预期，9 月降 | | | | 息概率走强，美元指数走弱，美棉价格重心环比上移，宏观层面扰动仍需持续关 | | | 棉花 | 注，基本面驱动有限，短期以震荡对待。国内市场方面，昨日市场情绪有所转暖， | 震荡 | | | 上证指数走强，棉价重心也有小幅上移。持仓方面来看，09 合约持仓仍以每日 2 万 | | | | 张以上速度下降中，主力净多持仓已无较多可下降空间，后续降幅或将放缓，9-1 | | | | 价差持续走弱情况也有所改善。在当前棉花商业库存偏低，且 09 合约已经进入到 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of industrial silicon 2509 closed at 8,360 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.5%, and the position decreased by 18,176 lots to 176,000 lots. The main contract of polysilicon 2509 closed at 48,720 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.28%, and the position decreased by 12,729 lots to 98,000 lots [2]. - The policy expectations for polysilicon have peaked, and its valuation has reached a bottleneck. The market's focus has shifted to industrial supply pressure and weak demand. Spot prices are anchored to cost, and the futures center follows the premium of high - quality warehouse receipts. News of capacity integration gives the futures market a phased premium [2]. - Continuously track the opportunity to short SI and long PS during the centralized integration of polysilicon capacity and the resumption of production in the southwest of industrial silicon. Industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies, and the resumption of production in the southwest will be the marginal driving factor [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,660 yuan/ton on August 1 to 8,365 yuan/ton on August 4, a decrease of 295 yuan/ton. Spot prices of various grades also generally declined, with the price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropping to 9,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowing to 510 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 204, and the total social inventory decreased by 5,400 tons [2][4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 49,200 yuan/ton on August 1 to 48,720 yuan/ton on August 4, a decrease of 480 yuan/ton. The price of N - type re - fed silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 3,930 yuan/ton. Polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the total social inventory increased by 0.6 tons [2][4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,500 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Include the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][17]. - **Inventory**: Present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, and social inventory, as well as the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Display the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [26][28][30]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in commodity research, focus on different aspects of the non - ferrous and new energy industries, and have provided high - quality research reports and services [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Wide - range Fluctuation [1] - Glass: Bearish Fluctuation [1] Core Views - Urea: The domestic urea fundamentals have little improvement, but the international market and Indian tender may boost short - term market sentiment. The urea futures price is expected to be bullish in the short term, but one should not be overly optimistic about the upside in the context of supply guarantee and price stability [1]. - Soda Ash: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, but external factors will increase market volatility. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the long - term supply - demand pressure is not optimistic [1]. - Glass: The sentiment in the glass market has declined significantly. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the overall trend of the commodity market and policy orientation. There may be an opportunity for the 9 - 1 spread to return [1]. Market Information Urea - Zhengshang Institute data: On August 4, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 3,373, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 200 [4]. - Longzhong data: On August 4, the daily output of the urea industry was 190,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 14,700 tons from the same period last year; the industry's operating rate was 82.24%, 2.59 percentage points higher than 79.65% in the same period last year [4]. - On August 4, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were: Shandong 1,760 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,760 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), Anhui 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu 1,770 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi 1,650 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - Zhengshang Institute data: On August 4, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 2,790, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast volume was 1,497; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 1,700, unchanged from the previous trading day [6]. - On August 4, the spot prices of soda ash were: North China light soda 1,300 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,400 yuan/ton; Central China light soda 1,250 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,350 yuan/ton; East China light soda 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,400 yuan/ton; South China light soda 1,400 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,450 yuan/ton; Southwest light soda 1,300 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,350 yuan/ton; Northwest light soda 1,120 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,120 yuan/ton [6]. - Longzhong data: On August 4, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 85.47%, compared with 84.75% on the previous working day [7]. - Longzhong data: On August 4, the average price of the float glass market was 1,221 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the daily output of the industry was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts such as the closing price of the urea and soda ash main contracts, the basis of urea and soda ash, the trading volume and open interest of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, the price spreads between different contracts of urea and soda ash, the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [9][10][12][15][17][18]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research. He has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [20].

Group 1: Index Trends - On August 4th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to close at 3583.31 points with a trading volume of 639.776 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.46% to close at 11041.56 points with a trading volume of 858.775 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.04% with a trading volume of 329.555 billion yuan, opening at 6637.84, closing at 6739.69, with a daily high of 6739.73 and a low of 6631.12 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.78% with a trading volume of 236.649 billion yuan, opening at 6190.34, closing at 6261.73, with a daily high of 6261.96 and a low of 6187.62 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.55% with a trading volume of 80.252 billion yuan, opening at 2748.62, closing at 2769.39, with a daily high of 2769.39 and a low of 2748.62 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 69.22 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, machinery, and national defense and military industry significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 48.53 points from the previous close, with sectors such as national defense and military industry, media, and non - ferrous metals significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 15.26 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - ferrous metals, and electronics significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 35.52, IM01 of - 107.93, IM02 of - 294.98, and IM03 of - 466.83 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 34.72, IC01 of - 96.84, IC02 of - 247.57, and IC03 of - 377.49 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 6.85, IF01 of - 19.1, IF02 of - 50.68, and IF03 of - 81.55 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.09, IH01 of 0.34, IH02 of 2.36, and IH03 of 2.52 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00 etc.) are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, IM00 - 02 was - 158.791 etc. [21]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, like at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, IC00 - 02 was - 90.0318 etc. [22]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, for example, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, IF00 - 02 was - 13.4098 etc. [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889 etc. [24].

Research View Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose 0.78% to $9,708.5/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.19% to CNY 78,370/ton; domestic spot imports remained at a loss [1]. - In June, US factory orders decreased 4.8% month-on-month, slightly better than the expected -5% but significantly lower than the previous value of 8.2%; durable goods orders decreased 9.4% month-on-month, lower than both the expected and previous value of -9.3% [1]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons, indicating an end to the phased inventory accumulation; Comex copper inventory increased by 1,360 tons to 236,941 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 1,553 tons [1]. - During the off - season, terminal orders slowed down, and the procurement rhythm of the processing end maintained at the level of rigid demand. In early August, the market focused on Trump's deadline for Russia, the results of China - US negotiations, etc., and the macro - performance might be weak. There were also concerns about the market's view on US copper in the future under the 0 - tariff policy for US refined copper, the risk of price inversion and inventory relocation, and the contradictions accumulated in the fundamentals during the off - season. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated strongly. Overnight, AO2509 closed at CNY 3,194/ton, up 0.13%, with an increase of 9,804 lots in positions to 139,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Overnight, AL2509 closed at CNY 20,440/ton, down 0.07%, with a decrease of 2,632 lots in positions to 224,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weakly. Overnight, the main contract AD2511 closed at CNY 19,865/ton, down 0.08%, with a decrease of 5 lots in positions to 8,241 lots [1]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded to CNY 3,250/ton. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to CNY 30/ton. The price of Foshan A00 dropped to CNY 20,490/ton, and the price of Wuxi A00 was at a discount of CNY 20/ton. The processing fees of aluminum rods in Baotou and Henan remained stable, while those in Xinjiang, Nanchang, Linyi, Guangdong, and Wuxi increased by CNY 10 - 50/ton; the processing fees of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fees of 6/8 - series aluminum rods remained stable, while the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods decreased by CNY 31/ton [1]. - The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights of Shunda and Alufa led to an expected increase in supply. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of imports from Indonesia, the surplus pressure of alumina increased. The production of cast ingots from the replacement capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on the aluminum price center. The aluminum alloy in the off - season might follow the logic of Shanghai aluminum, and there was an expectation of spread repair in the peak season of 2511. In August, the supply - demand pattern of the aluminum industry was expected to shift from the upstream to the downstream [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.57% to $15,105/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.61% to CNY 120,640/ton. Yesterday, LME inventory remained at 209,082 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons [2]. - In terms of nickel ore, the domestic trade price of nickel ore slightly decreased, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore slightly decreased. For stainless steel, the raw material prices were differentiated. The transaction price center of nickel iron moved up to CNY 920/nickel point. Due to the previous slowdown in production and the strengthening of prices, the inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the stainless - steel crude steel output in August was expected to increase month - on - month [2]. - For primary nickel, the domestic inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis, and the output in August was expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons. In general, in the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. The fundamentals changed little overall, with support from the prices of nickel iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above, and the prices continued to fluctuate [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - water copper on August 4, 2025, was CNY 78,395/ton, up CNY 90 from August 1; the flat - water copper premium was CNY 155, up CNY 5 from August 1. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained at CNY 73,000/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by CNY 10 to CNY 60 [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; total inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 1,602 tons to 235,579 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 20.0 million tons [3]. - Other data: The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $9.3 to - $49.8/ton; the CIF bill of lading price remained at $59.0/ton; the active contract import loss increased by CNY 50 to CNY - 53.6/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was CNY 16,750/ton, up CNY 150 from August 1; the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China remained at - CNY 150; the price difference between the first and second consecutive contracts of SHFE lead remained at - CNY 10. The price of tax - included recycled refined lead (≥pb99.97) and recycled lead (≥pb98.5) increased by CNY 125 to CNY 16,725/ton, and the price of tax - included reduced lead in Shandong decreased by CNY 50 to CNY 14,350/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 274,225 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 941 tons to 59,007 tons; weekly inventory increased by 29 tons to 63,283 tons [3]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $7.2, the CIF bill of lading price was $105.00, and the active contract import loss decreased by CNY 120 to CNY - 302/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi quotation was CNY 20,470/ton, down CNY 60 from August 1; the Nanhai quotation was CNY 20,490/ton, down CNY 30 from August 1; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the spot premium was - CNY 30, down CNY 10 from August 1. The price of low - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 600/ton, and the price of high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 640/ton. The FOB price of alumina remained at $377/ton, and the price of Shandong alumina remained at CNY 3,220/ton; the domestic - foreign price difference of alumina remained at CNY 202; the price of pre - baked anodes remained at CNY 6,332/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 925 tons to 463,725 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,009 tons to 46,649 tons; total inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,527 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained at 0.0 million tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons to 4.6 million tons [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $49.65, the CIF bill of lading price was $107.50, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 20 to CNY - 1171/ton [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates was CNY 122,500/ton, up CNY 650 from August 1; the Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 300 to CNY 2,550; the 1 imported nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 250 to CNY 750. The price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained at CNY 3,200/ton, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron (10 - 15%) remained at $0. The price of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port remained at CNY 465/ton, and the price of 1.8% nickel ore from the Philippines at Lianyungang decreased by CNY 2 to CNY 659/ton. The price of 304 No1 in Foshan and Wuxi increased by CNY 25 to CNY 12,425/ton; the price of 304/2B coils (both rough - edged and trimmed) in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The price of domestic nickel sulfate (≥22%) decreased by CNY 300 to CNY 32,300/ton, and the prices of domestic 523 and 622 ordinary products decreased by CNY 2,000 to CNY 213,000/ton and CNY 227,000/ton respectively [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 209,082 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons; weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons to 25,750 tons; stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons. The nickel social inventory (SHFE + Nanchu + hidden) decreased by 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory data was invalid [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $228, the CIF bill of lading price was $85.00, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 70 to CNY - 1085/ton [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 22,205/ton, down 0.6% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $2,505.5/ton, unchanged from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.86, down from 8.92 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 15 to CNY 5. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,170/ton and CNY 22,100/ton respectively; the domestic spot premium average increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the imported zinc premium average increased by CNY 30 to - CNY 10. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $1.75 to $2.5. The prices of zinc alloys Zamak3 and Zamak5 decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,795/ton and CNY 23,345/ton respectively, and the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) decreased by CNY 100 to CNY 21,200/ton [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons; LME inventory decreased by 3,825 tons to 97,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons to 8.72 million tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 75 tons to 14,907 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5,725 tons to 51,350 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 1,558 on August 1; the CIF bill of lading price was $135 [5]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 266,150/ton, up 0.7% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $27,540/ton, down 2.1% from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 9.66, up from 9.39 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 140 to - CNY 240. The SMM spot price increased by CNY 1,200 to CNY 265,800/ton. The prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by CNY 2,600 to CNY 257,500/ton and CNY 253,500/ton respectively. The domestic spot premium average remained at CNY 700, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by $15.5 to - $0.5 [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 254 tons to 7,671 tons; LME inventory decreased by 50 tons to 1,900 tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 7 tons to 7,293 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 1,390 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 25,128 on August 1; the tariff was 3% [5]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums, SHFE near - far month price differences, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, spanning from 2019 to 2025 [6 - 48]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various black commodities on August 5, 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It provides short - term price trend predictions for each commodity based on factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures market had a narrow - range shock. The inventory increased, indicating pressure on the supply - demand fundamentals. However, expectations of anti - involution policies and rumors of military parade production restrictions boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the rebar futures market will have a narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract rose. The supply decreased as Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and the demand weakened with a drop in molten iron production. Considering the "anti - involution" sentiment and military parade production restrictions, it is expected that the iron ore price will show an oscillatory consolidation trend in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. The upstream coal mine inventory decreased, and the downstream was replenishing stocks. After the fifth round of coke price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, but the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced resources declined. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. After the fifth round of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, and the production remained stable. The cost pressure eased, and the rigid demand from steel mills continued. It is expected that the coke futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The ferromanganese silicon futures price had a narrow - range shock. The "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the market returned to fundamental trading. The production increased in July, while the demand from steel mills was weak. Considering the tight spot market, it is expected that the ferromanganese silicon price will oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The "anti - involution" driver cooled down, and the supply increased in July. The demand from the steel industry was weak, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and month - on - month changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Basis**: It shows the latest values and month - on - month changes of the basis for different contracts of each commodity [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The latest spot prices and their month - on - month changes in different regions for each commodity are presented [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits (such as rebar futures trading profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) of black commodities is provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 are presented, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of the main contracts of various black commodities over different periods are shown, helping to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different - period contracts of various black commodities are provided, which are useful for analyzing price differences between different contract months [26][28][30][33][35][36][39]. - **Cross - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts of cross - commodity spreads of black commodities are presented, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., to analyze the relative price relationships between different commodities [41][43][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts of the futures trading profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar are provided to show the profit situation of the rebar industry over time [46][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, professional backgrounds, work experience, and relevant qualifications [52][53].