光大证券 1 2020 年半年度业绩 EVERBRIGHT SECURITIES 光期能化：PVC策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 日 PVC：低估值，弱驱动 | 摘 要 | | --- | | 1、供应：11月仍有部分 PVC 企业检修，但相比于 10 月份数量有所减少，整体开工率有所提升，12月仍有个别企业有新投产计划，产能基 | | 数将进一步扩大，加之国内存有检修计划的 PVC生产企业较少，开工率有所提升，整体供应压力将继续增加。 | | 2、需求：国内房地产施工表现仍然偏弱，天气逐渐变冷，水泥发运和螺纹表需数据显示房地产施工走弱，下游需求淡季以及房地产行业持 | | 续低迷拖累，制品企业开工率较低，整体需求较差，制品企业拿货多保持刚需低价为主，观望情绪浓厚。出口方面，印度取消反倾销政策 | | 及 BIS 认证，国内出口量将有所增加，将缓解国内部分供应压力。 | | 3、库存：基本面依旧供强需弱，随着下游需求有进一步下滑预期，终端企业订单有继续转差预期，PVC 库存消化能力将继续减弱。 | | 4、总结：供应端，12月企业检修低谷，产量将继续增长；需求端，从水泥发运率和螺纹钢表观需求的数据来看 ...

光期研究 见微知著 股指期货策略月报 2 0 2 5 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 股指期货：12月震荡为主 p 2 股指期货 月度要点 股 指 策 略 周 报 | 1、指数高位回落 | | --- | 11月，Wind全A缩量震荡，收跌2.22%，日均成交额1.9万亿元。中证1000下跌2.3%，中证500下跌4.08%，沪深300月度下跌2.46%， 上证50下跌1.39%。经过本轮回调，各指数估值回到近5年1倍标准差以内，继续回落风险降低。板块上，电子、计算机、电力设备 等板块回调幅度较大，拖累指数下行，但近期相关板块已经止跌企稳，出现反弹，预计12月板块轮动为主。资金层面情绪有所回落， 但并不存在显著的空头情绪，融资余额11月小幅减少135亿元；新成立股票型基金304亿元，混合型基金235亿元，普遍将在未来三 个月建仓，增量资金仍在路上。 2、政策真空期预计震荡为主 随着6月以来的流动性行情告一段落，市场重新聚焦基本面逻辑，目前以AI为首的新质生产力题材普遍对未来三年的增长水平 存在乐观预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation of polyolefins is at a relatively low level, and polyolefins tend to fluctuate at the bottom. In December, the supply will increase while the demand will weaken, resulting in high pressure to transfer inventory downstream. However, since the monthly spread is already at the lowest level in the past five years, if the crude oil price remains relatively stable, polyolefins will tend to fluctuate at the bottom [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 12 - month refinery maintenance decreases, and supply gradually rebounds - **PE**: In November, the number of unit overhauls decreased, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. In December, the overhauls remained low. The 500,000 - ton/year low - pressure unit of BASF is planned to be put into production at the end of the year, with limited impact on linear PE. The PE output is expected to be around 2.75 million tons [3] - **PP**: In November, the number of overhauled units decreased, and the capacity utilization rate remained relatively stable at around 78%. The output increased significantly year - on - year, and the domestic supply was relatively sufficient. In December, although there were no new units, the overhauled units resumed production one after another, and the output is expected to increase to around 3.3 million tons [3] 3.2 Demand: Demand gradually weakens in December - **PE**: In November, it was the peak season for agricultural film demand, and the start - up rate remained high, but the start - up rates of other downstream industries began to decline. In December, the demand for agricultural film entered the off - season, and the demand is expected to continue to decline [3][19] - **PP**: In December, the traditional demand is expected to enter the off - season. Plastic weaving and injection molding manufacturers are affected by the winter consumption off - season, with fewer orders and cautious procurement. The demand is expected to decline [3][26] 3.3 Inventory: Refineries actively reduce inventory, downstream purchases on a just - in - time basis, and the pressure to reduce inventory remains high - **PE**: At the end of November, the overall social inventory was at a normal level, and the petrochemical inventory was slightly higher than that of the same period last year. It is still in the stage of active inventory reduction [3][37] - **PP**: The supply is at a high level. Although refineries actively reduce inventory, downstream purchases on a just - in - time basis, and the total inventory has increased significantly year - on - year. The pressure to reduce inventory in December remains high [3][53] 3.4 Spread: Basis weakens - **LLDPE**: The basis strengthens slightly, and the monthly spread rebounds slightly but is at the lowest level in the past five years due to high supply pressure [62][69] - **PP**: The basis strengthens, and the monthly spread continues to weaken due to high supply pressure [81][87] 3.5 Profit: Coal - based profits weaken, and oil - based profits fluctuate slightly - **PE**: Both oil - based and coal - based production profits have declined [101] - **PP**: The production profits from different raw materials show different trends, and the overall situation is complex [106]

Report Information - Report Title: "Methanol Strategy Monthly Report: Iran's Plants Shut Down Due to Gas Restrictions" [3][4] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In terms of supply, domestic methanol production is expected to decline slightly in December, and imports will fall from a high level. The shutdown of Iranian plants will lead to a significant drop in arrivals from mid - December to January. - In terms of demand, although the Ningbo Fude plant is scheduled for maintenance in December, the restart of Shandong Yangmei's plants and the launch of Shandong Lianhong's new plant at the end of the year are expected to increase the total olefin demand. - Overall, port inventories are likely to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year, driving up methanol prices. However, considering that the price of downstream polyolefins is unlikely to rise significantly, the increase in methanol prices is expected to be limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Supply: Domestic开工小降,产量预期小幅走弱 - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol production profits continue to weaken. [6] - **Domestic开工&产量**: In December, domestic plant maintenance mainly involves the southwest production area. Affected by gas restrictions, the start - up of natural gas - to - methanol plants drags down the overall domestic methanol start - up rate, which may drop to around 83%. [3][12] - **Import Profit&Foreign Supply**: A large - scale shutdown of Iranian plants occurred at the end of November. It is expected that the methanol loading volume in Iran will decrease significantly in December. [15] - **Import&Arrival Volume**: Due to the shutdown of Iranian plants at the end of November, the methanol loading volume in Iran is expected to drop significantly in December. Conventionally, China's methanol imports will show a seasonal decline in January. [3][22] 3.2 Demand: MTO需求有支撑 - **Downstream Gross Margin**: As methanol prices weaken, olefin profits have recovered, but there is an expectation of subsequent weakening. [26][32] - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The Ningbo Fude plant is scheduled for maintenance in December. However, the restart of Shandong Yangmei's plants and the launch of Shandong Lianhong's new plant at the end of the year are expected to increase the total olefin demand. The start - up rate of traditional downstream acetic acid plants will gradually recover to 80 - 90% after the end of maintenance in December. [3][37] 3.3 Inventory:预计港口库存边际走弱 - **Total Inventory**: The overall inventory is expected to enter a destocking phase. [46] - **Inland Inventory**: With the increase in downstream external procurement, inland inventory has decreased month - on - month. [49] - **Port Inventory**: The shutdown of Iranian plants will lead to a significant drop in arrivals from mid - December to January. With the high load of MTO plants in the East China region, port inventories are likely to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year. [56] 3.4 Spread:基差走强 - **Domestic Regional Spread**: Multiple domestic regional spreads are presented in the report, including spreads between different regions such as Shandong and Inner Mongolia. [63][66][69] - **Domestic Freight**: Freight rates between different domestic regions are shown, such as from Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi to Shandong. [72][75] - **Domestic Logistics Window**: Information on the domestic logistics window is provided, including the spread between Shanxi and Shandong. [79] - **Internal - External Spread**: Spreads between China and other regions such as Southeast Asia, India, Europe, and the United States are presented. [81][82] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts:较上月小幅下降 - The number of warehouse receipts has decreased slightly compared to last month. [5]

Research Views - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures, the 2605 contract, dropped 1.68% to 95,820 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 500 yuan/ton to 93,300 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 450 yuan/ton to 90,850 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 400 yuan/ton to 81,730 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased 269 tons to 26,781 tons [3]. - In terms of news, the non-oil and gas mining right change registration (including renewal) of the Zunkuoli - Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, has entered the acceptance stage. Yahua Group stated in an institutional research on November 26 that the company's current comprehensive designed lithium salt production capacity is 99,000 tons, and the new 30,000 - ton high - grade lithium salt material production line of Ya'an Lithium Industry is under commissioning. It is expected that the company's comprehensive lithium salt production capacity will reach nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025. On November 27, Atlantic Lithium said that despite the delay in Ghana's approval and the difficult lithium price trend this year, the company will enter 2026 in a strong position [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production decreased 265 tons to 21,865 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased 20 tons to 13,364 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased 50 tons to 3,021 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased 400 tons to 3,225 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased 65 tons to 2,245 tons. In October, lithium carbonate imports increased 22% to 24,000 tons, with imports from Argentina increasing 5% to 7,000 tons and imports from Chile increasing 37% to 15,000 tons. On the demand side, the weekly production of ternary materials increased 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased 71 tons to 19,361 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate increased 4,690 tons to 95,713 tons, and the inventory increased 1,757 tons to 104,341 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 15 consecutive weeks to 116,000 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory decreased 2,452 tons to 41,984 tons, the inventory in other links increased 1,780 tons to 49,660 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased 1,780 tons to 24,324 tons [3]. - The post - market news yesterday may affect market sentiment, but before the increase in supply is reflected, the weekly inventory is expected to continue to decline. From the perspective of future market trends, the bullish sentiment may gradually weaken marginally. The current weighted contract positions are still large, and there is still a risk of continued position reduction and position transfer, which will have a greater impact on the futures price. Attention should be paid to whether the demand from the power end affected by pre - consumption and the strong energy storage end exceeds expectations, or wait for the opportunity to go long after over - decline or the release of negative news [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract was 95,820 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 93,960 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,126 US dollars/ton, up 13 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,665 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,590 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - In the lithium carbonate market, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 93,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 90,850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 81,730 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 86,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 76,230 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 10.65 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - Regarding price spreads, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 11,570 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spread between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,350.37 yuan/ton, down 418 yuan [5]. - In the market of precursors and cathode materials, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 105,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 94,425 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 86,925 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 105,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 156,325 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 144,300 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 145,825 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 161,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 39,230 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy storage) was 37,675 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 34,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 41,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 39,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 377,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - In the battery market, the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.499 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.52 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.64 yuan/piece, up 0.1 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.341 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.36 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 7.45 yuan/Ah, up 0.1 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.304 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. Chart Analysis Ore Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) and amblygonite (7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - It includes charts of metal lithium prices, average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide prices, and hexafluorophosphate lithium prices from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][13]. Price Spreads - There are charts showing the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other related spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][19]. Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts display the prices of ternary precursors (523, 622, 811), ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25][26]. Lithium Battery Prices - The report shows charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][31]. Inventory - There are charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and inventory in other links of lithium carbonate from April to November 2025 [35][37]. Production Costs - A chart presents the production profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,.,

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉因感恩节休市，CF601 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 13640 元/吨，主力合 | 震荡 | | | 约持仓环比下降 11839 手至 54.06 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14480 元/吨， | | | | 较前一日上涨 5 元/吨。国内市场方面，郑棉主力合约逐渐移仓中，期价环比基本 | | | | 收平。我们认为，当前郑棉上下方驱动均相对有限。当下市场的压力在于供应端， | | | | 市场对新棉增产幅度有分歧，但是大幅增产是确定的，且目前是供应压力高峰期， | | | | 未来一段时间也是，棉价上方压力较大。下方支撑在于成本、需求与预期。年度籽 | | | | 棉收购成本已经固化，目前看纺企有利润下开机稳定，终端纺服零售表现也尚可。 | | | | 随着时间推移，供应的压力会逐渐减弱，供需格局或将结构性转变。12 月有重磅 | | | | 会议，值得市场期待。综合来看，我们认为短期郑棉仍将在当前位置震荡 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated with an upward bias, and domestic spot imports remained in a loss. The US market was closed for Thanksgiving, reducing its guiding role. The Fed's Beige Book showed that the US economic activity has nearly stalled recently, the job market continues to weaken, and inflationary pressures persist, posing challenges to monetary policy. LME copper inventory increased by 675 tons to 157,175 tons, Comex copper inventory remained at 378,904 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons, and BC copper decreased by 300 tons to 5,502 tons. The demand for copper showed a slow recovery as downstream acceptance improved despite high prices. The stabilization of domestic and international stock markets and a significant increase in the annual long - term copper contract price pushed up the copper price. However, the "inventory dam" will still limit the upside of copper prices this year. It is recommended to monitor the performance of copper prices at high levels, maintain the view of high - level fluctuations for now, but be aware that an effective upward breakthrough may lead to a new round of volatility increase and bullish sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated with an upward bias, with AO2601 closing at 2,730 yuan/ton, a 0.55% increase, and open interest increasing by 3,459 lots to 359,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, with AL2601 closing at 21,480 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease, and open interest increasing by 223 lots to 257,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract AD2601 closing at 20,715 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decrease, and open interest decreasing by 182 lots to 5,334 lots. In the spot market, the SMM alumina price dropped to 2,831 yuan/ton, the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to 20 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 quotation rebounded to 21,380 yuan/ton, at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the Wuxi A00 price. Aluminum rod processing fees remained stable in many places, while those in Xinjiang, Nanchang, and Wuxi decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The processing fees of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods in Yunnan increased by 75 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections have started in the north, mainly targeting the mining end. Some northern alumina plants have undergone phased maintenance, but there has been no large - scale production cut. The warehouse capacity in Xinjiang is approaching full, and the social inventory of alumina has been slightly relieved. Downstream raw material inventory backlogs continue to put pressure on prices. As the expectation of US interest rate cuts declines, the macro - sentiment has become more cautious. The decline in the aluminum price center and the temporary lifting of environmental production restrictions in Henan have led to the partial resumption of processing production lines, increasing the outbound volume of aluminum ingots. The initial tightness in Xinjiang's shipments and the limited decline in molten aluminum have helped the aluminum ingot inventory continue to decline slightly, providing short - term support for the aluminum price, but there is still an upper limit [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.03% to $14,840/ton, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.21% to 117,160 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 930 tons to 255,450 tons, and SHFE warrants decreased by 396 tons to 33,548 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The benchmark price of nickel ore decreased slightly, but the premium remained relatively stable. In the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain, the transaction price center of nickel - iron has shifted downwards, weakening the raw material support. The weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the market is sluggish. In the new energy industry chain, the tight supply of raw materials provides a bottom - support, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more apparent. Considering the cost of producing electrowon nickel from SMM's integrated MHP at 110,000 yuan/ton as support, one may consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances, potential production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 27, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 87,035 yuan/ton, up 425 yuan from the previous day; the flat - copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 78,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong was 2,854 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan; the price of oxygen - free copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai was 87,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of low - oxygen copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai was 83,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 156,500 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons, the total SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,620 tons to 378,900 tons, and the domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 28.1 million tons. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton to - 49.8 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading remained at 45.5 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 380 yuan to - 1,210.4 yuan [4]. - **Lead**: On November 27, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,960 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 1 lead ingot premium in East China remained at - 60 yuan; the price difference between the first and second - month contracts of Shanghai lead remained at 0; the price of tax - included recycled refined lead (≥pb99.97) was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of tax - included recycled lead (≥pb98.5) was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of tax - included reduced lead in Shandong was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The arrival price of 50% lead concentrate in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the processing fees remained unchanged. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 264,975 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 1,159 tons to 27,495 tons, and the SHFE inventory (weekly) decreased by 3,869 tons to 38,921 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 7.2 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 90 dollars/ton, and the active contract import profit was 68 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Aluminum**: On November 27, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Nanhai aluminum price was 21,380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference was - 70 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot premium was - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of low - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at 615 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at 655 yuan/ton; the FOB price of alumina remained at 320 dollars/ton; the price of Shandong alumina remained at 2,775 yuan/ton; the price difference between domestic and foreign alumina remained at 213 yuan; the price of pre - baked anodes remained at 6,717 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 6063 aluminum (φ90) in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan to 410 yuan/ton, and the processing fee of 1A60 aluminum rods in Guangdong remained at 350 yuan/ton; the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China remained at 21,350 yuan/ton. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 541,725 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 76 tons to 66,909 tons, the total SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 8,817 tons to 123,716 tons, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory (weekly) decreased by 1.7 million tons to 59.6 million tons, and the alumina social inventory (weekly) increased by 0.1 million tons to 14.1 million tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 49.65 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 90 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss was - 1,786 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Nickel**: On November 27, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 121,300 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi nickel was 4,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price difference between 1 imported nickel and Wuxi nickel was 650 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained at 3,300 yuan/ton; the price of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port remained at 465 yuan/ton, and the price of 1.8% nickel ore from the Philippines at Lianyungang decreased by 1 yuan to 652 yuan/ton; the price of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi remained at 12,150 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B stainless steel coils (both rough - edged and trimmed) in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged; the price of domestic nickel sulfate (≥22%) was 32,300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of domestic 523 - series and 622 - series precursors decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 254,520 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 396 tons to 33,548 tons, the SHFE nickel inventory (weekly) decreased by 778 tons to 39,795 tons, SHFE stainless - steel warrants decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons, the social nickel inventory (weekly) decreased by 855 tons to 52,259 tons, and the social stainless - steel inventory (Foshan + Wuxi) decreased by 12 tons to 940 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 228 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 85 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss was - 1,937 yuan/ton, down 610 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: On November 27, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 22,475 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; the LmeS3 price was 2,505.5 dollars/ton, up 0.0%; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.97; the near - far month price difference was - 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the SMM 0 spot price was 22,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the SMM 1 spot price was 22,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the domestic spot average premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the imported zinc average premium was 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME 0 - 3 premium was 2.5 dollars/ton, down 1.75 dollars/ton; the price of zinc alloy Zamak3 was 23,125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of zinc alloy Zamak5 was 23,675 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) remained at 21,500 yuan/ton. The weekly TC of 50% domestic zinc concentrate remained at 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and that of 50% imported zinc concentrate remained at 240 dollars/dry ton. The SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, the LME inventory remained at 49,925 tons, and the social inventory (weekly) decreased by 1.13 million tons to 14.04 million tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 2,502 tons to 69,118 tons, the LME registered warrants decreased by 525 tons to 44,425 tons, and the active contract import profit was 0 yuan/ton, up 5,180 yuan from the previous day [7]. - **Tin**: On November 27, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 300,440 yuan/ton, up 1.5%; the LmeS3 price was 27,540 dollars/ton, down 2.1%; the Shanghai - London ratio was 10.91; the near - far month price difference was - 360 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the SMM spot price was 301,800 yuan/ton, up 6,600 yuan; the price of 60% tin concentrate was 287,200 yuan/metal ton, up 1,700 yuan; the price of 40% tin concentrate was 283,200 yuan/metal ton, up 1,700 yuan; the domestic spot average premium remained at 200 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 50 dollars/ton to 185 dollars/ton. The SHFE inventory (weekly) decreased by 29 tons to 6,229 tons, the LME inventory remained at 3,125 tons, the SHFE registered warrants increased by 34 tons to 6,219 tons, the LME registered warrants decreased by 65 tons to 2,780 tons, the active contract import profit was 0 yuan/ton, up 29,136 yuan from the previous day, and the tariff was 3% [7]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the price differences between the first and second - month contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][19][20] - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34] - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40] - **Smelting Profit**: Charts depict the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47] 3. Introduction to the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the current director of non - ferrous

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