黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面延续跌势，再创新低，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2928 元/吨，较上一交 易收盘价格下跌 33 元/吨，跌幅为 1.11%，持仓增加 0.18 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交维持低位，唐山 地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2860 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3040 元/吨，全 国建材成交量 9.45 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 3.11%至 390.59 万吨，热卷库存增加 0.22% 至 180.37 万吨，建材库存继续下降，热卷库存则有所累积。美国宣布将对进口钢材和铝材加征双倍关税， | 弱势整理 | | | 从现行的 25%翻倍，6 月 4 日起实施。钢材关税政策不断扰动，对市场情绪形成一定影响。而焦煤价格持 | | | | 续下跌，对钢材成本形成一定拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍弱势整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 端午假期后第一个交易日尿素期货价格下挫明显，主力09合约收盘价1761元/吨， | | | | 跌幅0.96%。现货市场多数稳定，河北、安徽等局部地区价格小幅探涨。昨日山东 | | | | 、河南地区市场价格分别稳定在1870元/吨、1850元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水 | | | | 平高位继续提升，昨日行业日产量20.77万吨，日环比增0.27万吨。需求端当前仍较 | | | 尿素 | 为分散，主流农作物产区麦收进行时，对农资采购较为分散。昨日主流地区尿素产 | 震荡 | | | 销率仍有分化，部分地区突破100%及以上，多数地区维持20-70%区间。整体来看 | | | | ，当前尿素市场供需博弈，短期多数地区产销尚能维持平衡。麦收结束后需求及出 | | | | 口仍有放量预期，但价格上方天花板依旧存在。预计尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，日内 | | | | 关注超跌反弹可能，关注需求释放节 、本 库存数据。 | | | | 端午假期后 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约涨 0.33%至 59940 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价跌 400 元/ 吨至 60300 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价跌 400 元/吨至 58700 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 300 元/吨至 62820 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）跌 300 元/吨至 67965 元/吨。仓单方面，昨 日仓单库减少 60 吨至 33397 吨。 2. 价格方面，锂矿价格延续下跌，据市场消息最低成交价下跌至 600 美元/吨。供应端，周度产量环比 增加 487 吨至 16580 吨，需要注意的是部分企业此前经过检修拟在 6 月复产，6 月预计产量仍环比 有增加。需求端，正极排产数据来看表现一般，但正极库存连续消化，特别是磷酸铁锂库存周转天 数已经明显下降，电芯端延续放缓，但终端销售仍然亮眼，渗透率维持高位。库存端，周度库存环 比下降 208 吨至 131571 吨，下游库存小幅增加，上游和中间环节减少。 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating with a downward bias [3] - Rubber: Oscillating with a downward bias [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [4] - Polyolefins: Oscillating with a downward bias [4] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have led to a reduction in crude oil supply, supporting oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are expected to continue to rebound due to short - term demand support and geopolitical disturbances [1]. - For fuel oil, OPEC+ maintaining the production increase rate eases the pressure on oil prices at the cost end. Short - term prices of FU and LU are expected to stabilize and rise. The spread between LU - FU is expected to be stable, and it is advisable to wait and see. The short - term anti - arbitrage market of FU07 may continue, but the profit margin may be limited [2]. - For asphalt, although there is support at the bottom in the short - term due to factors such as low production plans and inventory control, the upward space is limited, and the price is expected to show a pattern of short - term high - level oscillation and medium - term downward pressure [2]. - For polyester, with the supply recovery of TA and the high operating load of the downstream polyester end, under the situation of strong supply and stable demand, there is pressure above the TA price, and the EG price may show an oscillating and downward trend [3]. - For rubber, the fundamentals are weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. After the rubber price breaks through the support level, it may continue to decline. The price of butadiene rubber is also weak due to weak demand [4]. - For methanol, although there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, the increase in imports in June is expected to be small, and the demand change is not significant. Therefore, the inventory increase may be limited, and the price has support. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunity [4]. - For polyolefins, the marginal change in demand is not significant, and the market is in the off - season. The market lacks obvious driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - For polyvinyl chloride, the fundamentals are loose in June, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The main contract V2509 has the expectation of a peak season, but the upward space is limited due to weak fundamentals. The price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and the basis and inter - month spread will gradually strengthen [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center continued to rise. The WTI July contract closed up $0.89 to $63.41 per barrel, a 1.42% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $1.00 to $65.63 per barrel, a 1.55% increase; the SC2507 closed at 469.0 yuan per barrel, up 4.0 yuan per barrel, a 0.86% increase. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, led to the shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, about 7% of the country's oil production. EIA data showed that before the driving season, the average retail gasoline price in the US before the Memorial Day weekend was 14% lower than last year, and the gasoline consumption during the Memorial Day weekend increased by 2% compared with the same period last year [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.85% at 2,913 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2507 closed up 1.47% at 3,509 yuan per ton. The inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes from Northwest Europe to the Singapore market is expected to increase in June, but the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is temporarily tight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the supply from Russia is expected to continue to rise, but Iran's exports remain low, and the power generation demand in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa is expected to increase significantly [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.22% at 3,482 yuan per ton. In June, the rainy weather in the south restricts the release of terminal demand, but the planned production level of refineries is not high. With the slow release of demand in the north and the low supply in North China, the supply in Shandong is expected to decrease, which provides bottom support for the asphalt price in the short - term. However, the upward space is limited, and the price is expected to show high - level oscillation in the short - term and downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,628 yuan per ton yesterday, down 1.53%; EG2509 closed at 4,306 yuan per ton, down 0.99%. An East China 3 million - ton PTA plant restarted yesterday, and a 340,000 - ton/year MEG plant in East China has restarted. A large domestic polyester bottle - chip manufacturer has recently reduced production, involving nearly 700,000 tons of production capacity, and there are plans for further production reduction. The PX fundamentals are expected to be positive, supporting the PX price and PXN profit repair. Under the situation of strong supply and stable demand, there is pressure above the TA price, and the EG price may show an oscillating and downward trend [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed up 45 yuan per ton to 13,450 yuan per ton; the main NR contract closed down 55 yuan per ton to 11,810 yuan per ton; the main butadiene rubber contract BR closed down 270 yuan per ton to 10,875 yuan per ton. The fundamentals of rubber are weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. The price may continue to decline after breaking through the support level. The supply of butadiene rubber changes little in June, but the downstream and terminal automobile demand weakens significantly, and the price is under pressure [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,275 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1,862.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $254 - 258 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $318 - 323 per ton. Although there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, the increase in imports in June is expected to be small, and the demand change is not significant. Therefore, the inventory increase may be limited, and the price has support [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing PP was between 6,990 - 7,200 yuan per ton. The demand side changes little, and downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand. Refineries need to reduce prices to destock. In the off - season of demand, the market lacks obvious driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4][6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: On Tuesday, the price in the East China PVC market was weakly adjusted. The market is expected to maintain low - level oscillation in June, with the basis and inter - month spread gradually strengthening [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on June 4, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have led to the shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, about 7% of the country's oil production. - Kazakhstan reaffirmed its willingness to cooperate closely with OPEC and countries participating in coordinated production cuts to ensure the stability of the oil market [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [62] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the cash - flow and profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production, PP production, and LLDPE production [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures are rated as "volatile" [1] - Treasury bond futures are rated as "volatile" [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market showed a general upward trend on June 3, 2025, with the Wind All A index rising 0.52% and a trading volume of 1.16 trillion yuan. The consumer and banking sectors were strong, while the real estate upstream and downstream sectors were weak. The economic data in April showed a certain decline compared to March but remained resilient. The social retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by the "trade-in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the M2 growth rate at 8% year-on-year. The joint statement between China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. Recently, the central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policies, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote the entry of long - term funds into the market. These measures are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations [1] - On June 3, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.03%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts fell 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively. After the cross - month period, the capital market became looser, and the DR007 decreased by 12BP to 1.55%. In June, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - following market and will show a sideways volatile pattern [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock index futures**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, IH rose from 2,667.2 to 2,668.6 (0.05%), IF from 3,822.4 to 3,824.8 (0.06%), IC from 5,627.8 to 5,638.4 (0.19%), and IM from 5,966.0 to 5,998.0 (0.54%) [4] - **Stock indexes**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose from 2,678.7 to 2,687.3 (0.32%), the CSI 300 from 3,840.2 to 3,852.0 (0.31%), the CSI 500 from 5,671.1 to 5,694.8 (0.42%), and the CSI 1000 from 6,026.6 to 6,070.0 (0.72%) [4] - **Treasury bond futures**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, TS fell from 102.40 to 102.35 (-0.04%), TF from 106.02 to 105.96 (-0.06%), T from 108.73 to 108.69 (-0.04%), and TL rose from 119.41 to 119.45 (0.03%) [4] 3.2 Market News - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down from the previous value of 50.4 [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock index futures**: The report provides the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC, and their corresponding basis trends from January 2024 to January 2025 [7][8][11] - **Treasury bond futures**: The report provides the trend charts of Treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates from 2023 to 2025 [14][16][18] - **Exchange rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen from 2023 to 2025 [21][22][26]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-06-04 一、指数走势 06 月 03 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.43%，收于 3361.98 点，成交额 4682.93 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.16%，收于 10057.17 点，成交额 6731.17 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.72%，成交额 2342.97 亿元，其中开盘价 6009.18，收盘价 6070.04，当日最高价 6086.62，最低价 6008.54； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.42%，成交额 1599.97 亿元，其中开盘价 5653.67，收盘价 5694.84，当日最高价 5710.42，最低价 5653.3； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.31%，成交额 2267.83 亿元，其中开盘价 3833.46，收盘价 3852.01，当日最高价 3863.3，最低价 3832.72； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.32%，成交额 590.77 亿元，其中开盘价 2674.77，收盘价 2687.3，当日最高价 2697.39，最低价 2671.34。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The maintenance season for PX, PTA, and MEG is coming to an end, and demand negative feedback is gradually emerging [2][152]. - For PX, as of May 30, the Asian PX operating load was 72%, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points; the Chinese PX operating load was 82.1%, a month - on - month increase of 8.9 percentage points. There are still some device maintenance plans from June to July, especially concentrated in July, with tight supply - demand. The cost side is expected to continue to be under pressure, but the PX fundamentals are expected to be favorable, supporting price and PXN profit repair [152]. - For PTA, as of May 30, the PTA operating load was 76.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points. In June, more PTA devices will restart, and there are still maintenance plans for some devices. There is an expectation of increased supply. The polyester operating load may show a slight downward trend in June. With increased supply and stable demand, the TA price faces upward pressure [152]. - For MEG, as of May 29, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 59.83% (a month - on - month decrease of 8.6%), and the operating load of synthetic gas - based ethylene glycol was 57.19% (a month - on - month decrease of 5.02%). The cost of coal - based production has decreased, and the subsequent production is expected to increase. With increased supply and stable demand, the EG price may show a weak and volatile trend [152]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - **Futures Prices**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, PTA futures closing price increased by 266 yuan/ton (6.0%), MEG increased by 194 yuan/ton (4.7%), and PX increased by 406 yuan/ton (6.5%) [6]. - **PTA Basis and Spread**: The PTA basis and spread showed certain changes from April to May 2025, with the basis expanding significantly [15]. - **MEG Basis and Spread**: Similar to PTA, the MEG basis and spread also changed, and the basis expanded [12][15]. - **TA - EG Spread**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the TA - EG spread increased by 72 yuan/ton (25.8%) [18]. - **TA - PX Processing Spread**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the TA - PX * 0.656 spread remained unchanged [22]. - **Domestic and Overseas Ethylene Glycol Spread**: From April 30 to May 29, 2025, the price difference between domestic and overseas ethylene glycol changed, with the European - Chinese spread decreasing by 34.1% [25]. - **PX - Related Spreads**: The spreads between PX and crude oil, MX, and naphtha all changed from April to May 2025 [28]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Maintenance Implementation - **PX**: As of May 30, Asian and Chinese PX operating loads increased. There are still maintenance plans from June to August, especially in July, with a concentrated supply loss of 24.8 million tons [33][37][152]. - **PTA**: As of May 30, the PTA operating load decreased. In June, more devices will restart, and there are still some maintenance plans. New device production is expected to increase supply [35][152]. - **MEG**: As of May 29, the overall MEG operating load in mainland China decreased. There are maintenance and restart plans for domestic and overseas devices in different months [53][55][56][57]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: High Global Trade Concerns - **PX**: In April 2025, China's PX imports decreased. The decrease was due to device maintenance, reduced downstream demand, and tariff concerns [63]. - **PTA**: In April 2025, China's PTA exports increased. The main export destinations include Turkey, Egypt, etc. [65]. - **MEG**: In April 2025, China's MEG imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The main import sources are Saudi Arabia, Canada, etc. [68]. - **Polyester Products**: In April 2025, China's polyester product exports reached a record high for the same period. Different polyester products showed different export trends [71]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Rising Downstream Raw Material Inventory - **PTA**: PTA polyester factories' raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [91]. - **MEG**: As of May 26, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 68.7 million tons, showing a de - stocking trend [94]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Domestic Polyester Data**: In May 2025, compared with April, the polyester load decreased slightly, while the load of some related equipment increased. The inventory days and cash flow of some products changed [97]. - **Terminal Demand**: Terminal demand support is insufficient, and the inventory of polyester yarns has increased. The digestion of the weaving industry is weak, but the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City is expected to recover [98][101][103]. - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In April 2025, China's textile and garment exports increased year - on - year, with different trends for textiles and clothing [112]. - **Domestic Garment Retail**: In April 2025, the retail sales of domestic clothing - related products increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [115]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Position Situation - **PTA Futures Position**: On May 30, 2025, the PTA futures total position increased compared with April [126]. - **MEG Futures Position**: On May 30, 2025, the MEG futures total position increased compared with April [126]. - **PX Futures Position**: On May 30, 2025, the PX futures total position increased compared with April [126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the A - share market showed narrow - range oscillations. The market is mainly pricing the progress of fundamental recovery, and the capital market's ability to boost valuations is limited. In June, with previous reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts already implemented, direct positive factors for the stock market are expected to be limited, and the market will likely continue to oscillate. The style - switching observation window in 2025 may be in August [3]. - The large - cap indices have outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months since March. The basis discount of stock index futures is relatively large, mainly affected by market hedging demand and periodic dividend factors [3]. - The Q1 2025 financial reports of A - share listed companies show a mixed performance. Although there are signs of profit recovery, it remains to be seen whether companies can maintain their Q1 net profit levels under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is rising. The valuation of A - shares is at a historical median, and future quasi - stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A - share valuations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Highlights of Stock Index Futures - **Market Oscillation**: In May, the A - share market had narrow - range oscillations. Wind All - A rose 2.39% monthly, CSI 1000 rose 1.28%, CSI 500 rose 0.7%, SSE 50 rose 1.73%, and SSE 300 rose 1.85%. The large - cap indices have outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months since March. In June, the stock market is expected to continue oscillating, and the style - switching window in 2025 may be in August [3]. - **Basis Discount**: The basis discount of stock index futures is relatively large. It mainly reflects market hedging demand, which depends on the existence of obvious Alpha returns. Dividend factors also have a significant impact on the basis discount. For example, the discount caused by dividends in CSI 1000 contracts ranges from 35 to 55 points [3]. - **Q1 Financial Reports**: After excluding finance, the year - on - year revenue growth rate of A - shares in Q1 was - 0.33%, and the net profit year - on - year was 3.4%. ROE was 6.34%, in the bottoming stage of a downward cycle. The performance of Q1 financial reports was mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out, but there are signs of recovery [3]. 3.2 Market Conditions in May - **Index Performance**: The large - cap indices outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months. At the end of May, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond was 1.72%, the dynamic P/E ratio of Wind All - A was 18.93 times, and the equity risk premium declined slightly. The valuations of CSI 1000 and SSE 300 increased slightly compared to the previous month [15][17]. - **Volatility and Margin Funds**: The implied volatility of index options continued to decline, with 1000IV at 21.64% and 300IV at 15.96%. The margin balance remained unchanged for three consecutive weeks, with relatively little marginal capital. At the end of May, it was 1.792 trillion yuan [24]. - **Sector Performance**: In May, the banking, non - banking finance, and pharmaceutical biology sectors drove the index, while TMT and power equipment sectors performed weakly [25]. 3.3 Index and Option Indicators - **Index Performance and Basis Discount**: CSI 1000 rose 1.28% monthly, CSI 500 rose 0.7%, SSE 300 rose 1.85%, and SSE 50 rose 1.73%. The basis discount annualization of each index showed a divergent upward trend [35][41][46]. - **Option Indicators**: For CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 options, historical volatility, volatility cones, position PCR, and trading PCR data are provided, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [48][57][65]. 3.4 Trading Slippage - Trading slippage data for IM, IC, IF, and IH are provided, including long - and short - position slippage, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [73][76][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the domestic urea market will face an expected increase in supply and a phased release of demand, with enterprise inventories likely to decline seasonally. However, the upside of urea prices is significantly limited, and the futures market is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [4]. - In the short term, the downside of the soda ash futures market is limited, but in the long term, the market will continue to face pressure. In June, production device maintenance or emergencies may still disrupt the market, and there is an expectation of a continued recovery in rigid demand [5]. - In June, the glass market will still face expectations of increased supply and weakened demand, with enterprise inventory pressure likely to further increase, and the market downturn is difficult to improve significantly [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Material Situation in the Industrial Chain - **Futures Prices**: As of May 30, the monthly decline of the urea main contract was 3.9%, the soda ash main contract was 11.58%, and the glass main contract was 9.83%. In May, the prices of related futures varieties were weak, with urea performing relatively strongly and soda ash the weakest [4][5][6][13][14]. - **Futures - related Varieties**: In May, the prices of related futures varieties trended weakly, with urea showing relative resilience and soda ash being the weakest [14]. - **Coal Prices**: In May, the prices of some coal varieties declined. For example, the monthly changes in the ex - works price of Qinhuangdao Youhun steam coal (5500) and the pit - mouth price of Shaanxi Yulin smoky coal (Q5500) were - 41 yuan/ton and - 51 yuan/ton respectively [15]. - **LNG Prices**: In May, the prices of some LNG products declined. For example, the monthly changes in the prices of Zhongmei Ordos, Ningxia Hanas, and Shaanxi Hancheng were - 320 yuan/ton, - 170 yuan/ton, and - 190 yuan/ton respectively [18]. - **Raw Salt Prices**: In May, the prices of raw salt in some regions declined slightly [19]. - **Synthetic Ammonia Prices**: In May, the price of Shandong synthetic ammonia decreased by 5.41% [20]. 3.2 Urea: Demand May Follow Up in June, but the Upside of Prices is Significantly Limited - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of urea showed mixed trends, with the mainstream regional price fluctuations ranging from - 40 to + 40 yuan/ton [23]. - **Supply**: In May, the urea supply fluctuated at a high level, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. In June, if two new plants in Xinjiang are put into operation as planned, the supply level will further increase [4]. - **Demand**: In May, the follow - up of urea demand was relatively cautious. After the wheat harvest in the north, the demand for corn fertilizer and export demand will support the demand, but the price is difficult to rise significantly [4]. - **Inventory**: In May, the urea enterprise inventory first decreased and then increased, remaining at a high - level year - on - year. If the agricultural and export demand follows up smoothly in June, the enterprise inventory is expected to continue to transfer to ports and the middle and lower reaches [4]. - **Export**: In April, China's urea export volume was 0.23 million tons, with little impact on the domestic market. The total export volume from May to September is about 2 million tons, and the export volume is unlikely to change significantly later [4]. - **International Market**: In May, the international urea prices mostly declined, while China's FOB price increased significantly. At the end of May, India issued a new round of international urea tenders [67][69]. - **Related Products**: In May, most phosphate fertilizer prices rose, while potash fertilizer prices showed partial declines and partial increases [71]. 3.3 Soda Ash: The Downside of the Short - term Futures Market is Limited, but the Long - term Market Continues to Face Pressure - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of soda ash showed local weak declines [78]. - **Basis**: In May, the basis of soda ash (market average price) strengthened slightly [84]. - **Supply**: In May, the soda ash supply level decreased significantly, with the industry's start - up rate dropping to a year - on - year low, and the output at the end of May decreased by 8.48% compared to the end of April [90][95]. - **Inventory**: At the end of May, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.6243 million tons, a decrease of 2.86% compared to the end of April. In June, the enterprise inventory may be depleted, but there is a risk of anti - seasonal accumulation [5][100]. - **Export**: In April, China's soda ash export volume was 170,600 tons, a decrease of 12.21% compared to March. The export volume remains at a relatively high level in recent years, and the possibility of maintaining a high level in the future is still relatively high [5]. - **Profit**: In May, the production profits of ammonia - soda and combined - soda enterprises decreased compared to the same period last year [107]. 3.4 Glass: Demand in June Still Faces Challenges, and the Market Downturn is Difficult to Improve Temporarily - **Futures Prices**: In May, the glass futures prices continued the unilateral downward trend, with the main 09 contract breaking through the 1000 - yuan mark [6]. - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of glass mostly declined, with the mainstream 5mm large - plate market prices dropping by 20 - 120 yuan/ton throughout the month [6]. - **Supply**: In May, the glass production lines had alternating water - release and ignition, with supply first decreasing and then increasing. In June and July, there is an expectation of increased supply, but the implementation of production line commissioning needs attention [6]. - **Inventory**: In May, the glass enterprise inventory remained at a relatively high level in recent years, and in the later rainy season, the enterprise inventory pressure may continue to increase [6][7]. - **Demand**: The demand decline rate exceeds the glass production capacity decline rate. In June, after the rainy season starts, the glass demand will be restricted, and the enterprise inventory pressure may reappear [7].

Report Title - Lithium Carbonate Monthly Strategy Report, June 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market are still bearish, but the price fluctuation is intensified due to the game between bulls and bears. The lithium ore price continues to fall, with the lowest transaction price dropping to $600/ton. The weekly production of lithium carbonate increases by 487 tons to 16,580 tons, and the production is expected to increase in June. The cathode production data is average, but the cathode inventory is continuously digested. The cell production continues to slow down, but the terminal sales are still eye - catching with a high penetration rate. The weekly inventory decreases by 208 tons to 131,571 tons, with a slight increase in downstream inventory and a decrease in upstream and intermediate inventories [4]. Summary by Directory 1 Price - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract drops by 4.9%, and the prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and most cathode materials decline. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract drops from 66,960 yuan/ton to 59,800 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) drops from $779/ton to $676/ton [5][6] 2 Inventory - The weekly inventory decreases by 208 tons to 131,571 tons. The downstream inventory increases by 752 tons to 41,616 tons, the intermediate - link inventory decreases by 180 tons to 33,720 tons, and the upstream inventory decreases by 780 tons to 56,235 tons [5][12] 3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - Relevant charts show the trends of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, and lithium hydroxide export profit, etc., but specific profit data are not summarized in the text [18][19] 4 Supply 4.1 Lithium Resources - The production data of sample lithium mica mines and Chinese sample spodumene mines are provided. For example, on April 30, 2025, the total production of sample lithium mica mines (with a market share of about 65%) is 15,450 tons in lithium carbonate equivalent, and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines is 4,900 tons in lithium carbonate equivalent [25] 4.2 Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increases by 487 tons to 16,580 tons. Among them, the production from lithium spodumene increases by 20 tons to 7,519 tons, from lithium mica increases by 370 tons to 4,382 tons, from salt - lake lithium extraction increases by 67 tons to 2,907 tons, and from recycling lithium extraction increases by 30 tons to 1,772 tons [5][29] 4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - Charts show the production, capacity, and production by process and region of lithium hydroxide, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [41][42] 4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Charts present the production, export, and monthly operating rate of lithium hexafluorophosphate, as well as the theoretical production cost of solid - state lithium hexafluorophosphate produced by purchasing LiF externally, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [44][45] 4.5 Waste Recycling - Charts show the recycling volume of waste lithium - ion batteries, including the total volume of ternary waste, lithium iron phosphate waste, and lithium cobalt oxide waste, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [49][50] 5 Materials 5.1 Ternary Precursor - Charts show the profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export volume of ternary precursors, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [52][53] 5.2 Ternary Material - The weekly inventory of ternary materials decreases by 282 tons to 14,894 tons. Charts also show the production profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export of ternary materials [5][55] 5.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreases by 1,172 tons to 81,378 tons. Charts show the operating rate, capacity, production, cost, and export of lithium iron phosphate [5][57] 5.4 Other Materials - Charts show the capacity, production, and operating rate of lithium manganate and lithium cobalt oxide, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [58][59] 6 Power Cells - The weekly production of power cells decreases by 19.9% to 19.23 GWh. Among them, the production of lithium - iron cells decreases by 25.5% to 12.28 GWh, and the production of ternary cells decreases by 7.8% to 6.95 GWh [5][61] 7 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - From May 1 - 25, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market is 726,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in May last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market is 53.5%. The cumulative retail volume this year is 4.05 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [5][70] 8 Supply - Demand Balance - Charts show the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary precursors, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [72][73] 9 Options - Charts show the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratios of option positions and trading volumes related to lithium carbonate closing prices, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [78][79]