Research Views - Corn is expected to fluctuate weakly. On Thursday, the September contract of corn stabilized with a technical rebound, and the night - session price continued to rise. The national corn price was weak, with the domestic average price at 2388 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The short - term resistance for the September contract is at 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the medium - term outlook is weak [2]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose due to low - price - stimulated demand. The net sales of US soybeans last week were 101.28 million tons, higher than expected. In the domestic market, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose, and the night - session rapeseed meal increased by over 2%. The strategy is to hold long positions in soybean meal and participate in 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell due to increased inventory and production and weak demand. In the domestic market, the three major oils showed a strong trend. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [2]. - The price of eggs is expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the main 2509 contract of eggs rose slightly by 0.38%. The spot price decreased. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future. However, the short - term market sentiment is bearish [2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate strongly. On Thursday, the live pig futures continued to rebound. The spot price decreased due to oversupply. Policy support exists, and short - term long positions can be held cautiously [3]. Market Information - Fed Governor Waller is becoming a top candidate for Fed Chair as Trump's advisers search for Powell's successor [4]. - As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [4]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated area of 48.13 million hectares [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, up from 7.98 million tons last year [4]. - The US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 468,000 tons, and the 2025/2026 net sales were 545,000 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean No.1, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report provides charts on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][18][24][26].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 8 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素期货价格偏弱震荡，09合约收盘价1737元/吨，跌幅1.36%。01合约收盘价 | 震荡 | | | 1757元/吨，跌幅0.96%。现货市场偏弱运行，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1780 | | | | 元/吨、1790元/吨，日环比分别跌10元/吨、持平。基本面来看，昨日尿素行业日产 | | | | 量19.40万吨，日环比增0.19万吨。需求端跟进情绪仍有放缓，昨日主流地区产销率 | | | | 仍维持低位徘徊，高成交地区产销也不足60%。印标方面，印度本轮招标最终采购 | | | | 量199.88万吨，符合采购计划但较初步确认量有所减少，中国在配额内可供印度20- | | | | 30万吨数量，利于缓 国内供需压力。整体来看，印标及出口政策落地后市场新增 | | | | 驱动不足，国内基本面支撑力度有限。短期期货盘面仍以宽幅震荡趋势为主，短期 | | | | 偏弱。后续关注出口订单兑现情况、现货成交氛围。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weakly bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Weakly bearish [2] - Asphalt: Sideways [2] - Polyester: Weakly bearish [4] - Rubber: Sideways [4] - Methanol: Sideways [6] - Polyolefins: Sideways [6] - Polyvinyl chloride: Weakly bearish [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices have been declining for six consecutive days. The upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders and the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with weak fundamentals, keep oil prices under pressure [1]. - Fuel oil supply remains sufficient in August, demand may weaken, and the overall fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - The asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory in the short term, but the risk lies in crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - Polyester prices are under pressure due to the further decline in oil prices at the cost end, and the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol is expected to shift to inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market has sufficient supply and stable demand, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - Methanol is expected to maintain a sideways trend with inventory accumulation in August but a relatively low overall inventory level [6]. - The supply and demand of polyolefins will recover in August, with limited upside space in the absence of a significant increase in the cost end [6]. - The fundamental pressure of PVC has eased in August, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, WTI September contract closed at $63.88/barrel, down $0.47 or 0.73%; Brent October contract closed at $66.43/barrel, down $0.46 or 0.69%; SC2509 closed at 497.1 yuan/barrel, down 7.2 yuan or 1.43%. US crude exports in July dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years, about 310 barrels per day. The market is concerned about the US - Russia leaders' meeting, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict remains uncertain. Fundamentally, oil prices lack support and are under pressure [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2509 rose 0.6% to 2835 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2510 rose 0.31% to 3550 yuan/ton. As of August 6, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 165.1 barrels (6.69%) week - on - week, and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory increased by 172 barrels (21.67%) week - on - week. In August, supply is sufficient, demand may weaken, and the fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt BU2509 rose 0.17% to 3529 yuan/ton. In August, some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans, supply is expected to decrease, and demand in the south is expected to improve. The short - term asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, but the risk lies in crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4724 yuan/ton, up 0.9%; EG2509 closed at 4414 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The cost - end oil price is under pressure, and the downstream demand has resilience. Ethylene glycol supply has recovered well, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber RU2509 rose 30 yuan/ton to 15525 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12350 yuan/ton. The weather in rubber - producing areas is good, downstream demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - **Methanol**: In August, inventory accumulation is expected, but the increase in imports is not large, and the overall inventory level is relatively low. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a sideways trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: In August, both supply and demand will recover, inventory will gradually shift from society to downstream, and the upside space is limited without a significant increase in the cost end [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: In August, the fundamental pressure of PVC has eased, inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on August 8, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is closely monitoring market dynamics, supply and demand, and is concerned about US President Trump's recent remarks. He expects oil prices to be below $72 per barrel. The CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said that Kuwait's quota production is 2.548 million barrels per day [9]. - US crude exports in July dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years due to insufficient domestic supply, which increased the price of WTI futures relative to Brent crude and damaged overseas demand [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Line charts of the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products are provided, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [39][41][44] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Line charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products are shown, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [56][59][61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Line charts of the production profits of various energy - chemical products are presented, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [65][67][68] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experience [70][71][72]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - On August 7th, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,655 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.46%, and the position increasing by 15,654 lots to 224,000 lots. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 50,110 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 2.8%, and the position decreasing by 2,072 lots to 136,000 lots. The policy expectation of polysilicon has peaked, and the market focus has shifted to the industrial supply pressure and weak demand structure. Continuously track the opportunity to short SI and long PS during the concentrated integration of polysilicon production capacity and the resumption of production in Southwest China of industrial silicon. Industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies, and the resumption of production in Southwest China will be the marginal driving factor [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Viewpoint - Industrial silicon fluctuated strongly on August 7th, and polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The policy expectation of polysilicon has peaked, and the market focuses on supply pressure and weak demand. Continuously track the short SI and long PS opportunity, and industrial silicon is affected by the resumption of production in Southwest China and electricity price subsidies [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract's futures settlement price increased slightly, and most spot prices remained stable. The current lowest delivery product price was 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased to 155 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 105, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 4,030. The factory warehouse inventory decreased by 1,100, and the social inventory decreased by 1,100 [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract's futures settlement price decreased, and some spot prices increased. The current lowest delivery product price was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount decreased to 5,500 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 60, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The factory warehouse inventory increased slightly, and the social inventory increased slightly [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: Most of the DMC and other organic silicon spot prices remained stable, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Include charts of various industrial silicon brand prices, brand spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][12] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Include charts of DMC prices, organic silicon product prices, polysilicon prices, silicon wafer prices, battery cell prices, and component prices [13][16] 3.3 Inventory - Include charts of industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Include charts of the average cost level and average profit level of main producing areas, industrial silicon weekly cost and profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][27][31] 4. Non - core Content (Team Introduction) - The non - core content includes the introduction of the non - ferrous metals team, including the background and achievements of members such as Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi [32][33][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has risen recently due to long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution policies and infrastructure investment, and short - term capital inflows and improved enterprise deposit and loan data. The bond market is expected to show a repair trend. Precious metals are supported by "interest rate cut expectation" and "geopolitical uncertainty". Most commodities are expected to show a wide - range or weak - range oscillation trend [2][3][4] - Different commodities are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and geopolitical events, and their price trends vary. For example, steel products are affected by production, inventory, and policy expectations; copper is affected by tariffs and inventory; and energy products are affected by supply, demand, and price adjustments [6][15][23] Summary by Category Financials Stock Index - The A - share market rose yesterday with the Wind All - A up 0.72% and a turnover of 1.76 trillion yuan. The rise is attributed to long - term, mid - term, and short - term logics. It is advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [2] - The treasury bond futures showed different trends. The short - term bond market is expected to repair, and short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [3] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell overnight. Gold is in a window supported by "interest rate cut expectation" and "geopolitical uncertainty" and is expected to maintain a strong trend. Low - buying and holding silver is a good strategy [4] Mineral, Steel, Coal, and Coke Rebar - The rebar futures fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose slightly. The supply - demand pressure increased, but policy expectations and rumors boosted market sentiment. The short - term is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [6] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price fell. The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand weakened. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [7][8] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rose. The supply is affected by inspections, and the demand is strong. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [9] Coke - The coke futures rose. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [10] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures strengthened. Market news boosted confidence, and the demand increased. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [11][12] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures strengthened. Cost support is strong, and the fundamentals have little contradiction. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [13] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Copper prices rose slightly. The macro situation is complex, and the demand is insufficient. The price may be weak, but the "Golden September" expectation restricts the decline [15][16] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices were affected by market sentiment. The fundamentals changed little, and the short - term is expected to oscillate [17] Alumina, Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloy - Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy prices rose. The supply of alumina is expected to increase, and the aluminum price may face downward pressure. The short - term is expected to oscillate [18][19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices rose. Pay attention to the policy implementation and the opportunity of shorting SI and longing PS [20] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures rose, and the spot price fell. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is expected to increase. The short - term focus is on production uncertainties [21] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices fell. The market is affected by sanctions and price adjustments. The price is under upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [23] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand may weaken. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [24] Asphalt - Asphalt prices rose slightly. The inventory decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term is expected to oscillate [25][26] Rubber - Rubber prices showed different trends. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [27] PX, PTA, and MEG - PX, PTA, and MEG prices rose. The cost is under pressure, and the demand has resilience. The short - term price trends vary [28][29] Methanol - Methanol prices are expected to oscillate. The inventory is expected to accumulate, but the increase is not significant [30] Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are affected by supply and demand and cost. The short - term upward space is limited [31] Polyvinyl Chloride - PVC prices showed different trends. The fundamentals improved slightly. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [32][33] Urea - Urea prices strengthened. The supply increased, and the demand slowed down. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices showed different trends. The supply and demand are stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [35] Glass - Glass prices were weak. The supply was stable, and the demand declined. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [36][37] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans fell, while domestic protein meal prices rose. The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is expected to peak. The strategy is to go long on soybean meal and participate in positive spreads [39] Oils - BMD palm oil fell, while domestic oils were strong. The supply and demand data will be released, and the strategy is to go long and sell put options [40] Live Pigs - Live pig futures rose, and the spot price fell. The supply pressure and policy support coexist. The short - term is expected to oscillate [41][42] Eggs - Egg futures rose, and the spot price fell. The short - term fundamentals are bearish, but there is a possibility of seasonal rebound [43] Corn - Corn futures rebounded, and the spot price was weak. The short - term is expected to face resistance, and the medium - term is expected to be weak [44] Soft Commodities Sugar - The domestic sugar sales data is good, but the spot price is down. The external market is weak. The domestic market is expected to be weak [46] Cotton - ICE cotton fell, while domestic cotton rose slightly. The international market focuses on macro factors, and the domestic market is supported by inventory. The 01 contract is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term [47]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on cotton is that it will be in a state of oscillation. ICE US cotton rose 0.78% to 67.16 cents per pound on Tuesday, and CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,655 yuan per ton. The macro - level is the main focus in the international market, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, but the supply - demand of US cotton in the new year is relatively loose. In the domestic market, the macro sentiment is warm, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract's position is decreasing. The 09 contract has limited downside space but needs additional factors to rise, while the 01 contract is stable in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [2]. - The view on sugar is also oscillation. As of the end of July, Guangxi's sugar sales and sales rate increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased. The spot quotes were mostly stable, and the raw sugar was generally weak but showed signs of stopping the decline. The domestic basis has basically been repaired, and the reverse arbitrage can stop profit - taking. Wait for the guidance of raw sugar and the trading opportunity of the January contract's oversold rebound [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton rose 0.78% to 67.16 cents per pound, CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,655 yuan per ton, and the main contract's position decreased by 11,604 hands to 292,400 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,081 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,169 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan per ton. The international market focuses on the macro - level, and the Fed's September interest - rate cut probability is high, but US cotton supply - demand is loose. The domestic macro sentiment is warm, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract's position is decreasing. The 09 contract has limited downside space and needs extra factors to rise, while the 01 contract is stable in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [2]. - **Sugar**: As of the end of July, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.4961 million tons, an increase of 396,600 tons year - on - year, and the sales rate was 85.01%, a 2.51 - percentage - point increase. In July, the single - month sales volume was 355,500 tons, a decrease of 217,800 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a decrease of 113,000 tons. Spot quotes were mostly stable, and the raw sugar was weak but showed signs of stopping the decline. The domestic basis has basically been repaired, and wait for raw sugar guidance and the January contract's trading opportunity [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 165, a decrease of 35; the main basis was 1514, an increase of 36. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,081 yuan per ton, an increase of 12 yuan per ton, and the national spot price was 15,169 yuan per ton, an increase of 16 yuan per ton [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 70, a decrease of 25 [3]. 3. Market Information - On August 5th, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 8,563, a decrease of 121 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 348 [4]. - On August 5th, the cotton arrival prices in Xinjiang, Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang were 15,081 yuan per ton, 15,184 yuan per ton, 15,135 yuan per ton, and 15,225 yuan per ton respectively [4]. - On August 5th, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.4, an increase of 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.9, an increase of 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.7, a decrease of 0.1; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [4]. - On August 5th, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,030 yuan per ton (unchanged) and 6,035 yuan per ton (a decrease of 20 yuan per ton) respectively [4]. - On August 5th, the sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 19,260, a decrease of 113 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 8 月 6 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 754.5 | 742.5 | 12.0 | I05-I09 | -44.0 | -48.0 | 4.0 | | I09 | 798.5 | 790.5 | 8.0 | I09-I01 | 20.5 | 24.5 | -4.0 | | I01 | 778.0 | 766.0 | 12.0 | I01-I05 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 0.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices may be weak due to factors such as the US economic stagflation expectation, Trump's deadline for Russia, and the results of China - US negotiations. However, the expectation of the "Golden September" peak season will limit the decline [1]. - Alumina is in a weak and volatile state due to increased supply expectations, while electrolytic aluminum may face downward pressure on its price center due to increased production and inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy is expected to repair the price difference in the peak season [2]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by market sentiment in the short term and show a volatile trend, with support from the price of nickel - iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell 0.76% to $9634.5/ton, and SHFE copper fell 0.52% to 78070 yuan/ton. The US July ISM non - manufacturing index was lower than expected, triggering stagflation expectations. LME inventory increased by 14275 tons, Comex copper increased by 916 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1581 tons. Terminal orders slowed down during the off - season, and the market may be weak in early August, but the "Golden September" expectation will limit the decline [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina was weak and volatile, with AO2509 closing at 3207 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decline.沪铝 was strong and volatile, with AL2509 closing at 20525 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase. The supply of alumina is expected to increase, and the production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is rising, with potential inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy may shift from the off - season to the peak - season price difference repair in 2511 [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.33% to $15055/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% to 120500 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2172 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 247 tons. Nickel ore prices declined slightly, and stainless - steel raw material prices were divided. In the short term, prices are affected by market sentiment and show a volatile trend [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 45 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 14275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1581 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and LME inventory decreased by 1250 tons, while the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2300 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 2362 tons. The alumina inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2172 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 247 tons. The social inventory of nickel decreased by 795 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.5%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 130 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 793 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 4725 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price remained unchanged, and the SMM spot price increased by 1200 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 254 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 25 tons [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 有色金属 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the market sentiment subsided, lithium prices fell from their highs. The market's focus is on the uncertainty of whether the Jianxiaowo mine will shut down. After the concentrated destocking of warehouse receipts, there is a certain amount of re - inflow, but the current total remains low. In the long term, attention should be paid to the further cost - reduction and production - increase actions of overseas mines [4] - On the supply side, the weekly production continued to slow down, with a weekly decrease of 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons. However, with the price rebound, it is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of the two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the social inventory saw its first destocking since the end of May last week, but there is still about 142,000 tons [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 2.65% to 67,680 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 71,200 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 69,100 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 65,540 yuan/ton. In terms of warehouse receipts, there was a concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts yesterday, and the inventory increased by 1,840 tons to 14,443 tons [4] - In terms of news, on August 5th, according to Cailian Press, the Australian Resources Minister said that Australia is considering setting a price floor to support key mineral projects; Xinyu High - tech Ecological Environment Bureau released the "Pre - approval Publicity of the Annual Expansion Project of 30,000 Tons of High - Purity Lithium Salt in Zhongkuang Resources (002738) (Jiangxi) Lithium Industry Co., Ltd."; Core's restart research shows that it can reduce costs and increase production, and it also terminated the off - take agreement with Yahua [4] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 1,080 yuan/ton to 67,840 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 67,300 yuan/ton. Among lithium ores, the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,710 yuan/ton, while the price of phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ore (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 5,275 yuan/ton [5][6] - For lithium salts, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 71,200 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 69,100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 65,540 yuan/ton [6] - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,100 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 70 yuan/ton to - 5,660 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ore (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][9] - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][14] - **Price Differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][18] - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [21][26] - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][31] - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 12, 2024, to July 31, 2025 [33][36] - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [37][38] 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines [41] - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [42] - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to be volatile and weak. On Tuesday, corn's weighted contract positions increased, and the September contract gap - down led to an accelerated price decline. Spot trading weakened. With the approaching new - grain listing, the September positions are shifting to the November and January contracts, and the January contract continues to be weak under the pressure of a bumper harvest [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to rise. CBOT soybeans fell on Tuesday due to demand concerns. Domestically, soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices rose. Although domestic supply is still abundant and inventories are rising, the market expects the inventory peak to decline and the basis to gradually return. A long - position strategy is recommended for soybean meal, and positive spreads for 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 can be considered [2]. - Oils are expected to rise. BMD palm oil rose on Tuesday, supported by bargain - hunting and improved export expectations. Domestically, the three major oils are running strongly. A long - position strategy is recommended, along with selling put options [2]. - Eggs are expected to be volatile and weak. The main 2509 egg contract continued to decline on Tuesday, with a narrowing decline. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged, and the market sentiment is still pessimistic [2]. - Hogs are expected to be in a range - bound state. The main 2509 hog contract fluctuated and adjusted on Tuesday. Currently, the supply side exerts pressure on hog prices, while policies provide support. Attention should be paid to short - term low - level buying opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: The futures price is falling, and the spot trading is weak. The price in North China is generally stable, and the price in the sales area is falling. Technically, the September contract has fallen below 2300 yuan, and the January contract is weak under the pressure of a bumper harvest [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell due to demand concerns. Domestically, the price of soybean meal rose, with sufficient supply and rising inventories, but the market expects the inventory peak to decline [2]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil rose, while US soybean oil and Canadian canola fell. Domestically, the three major oils are strong, supported by a warm market atmosphere and slow procurement in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Eggs**: The main contract continued to decline, with a narrowing decline. The spot price is mostly stable in the production area and mostly falling in the sales area. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Hogs**: The main contract fluctuated and adjusted. The spot price is slightly adjusted, with sufficient supply and mediocre terminal demand. Policies support hog prices, and attention should be paid to short - term low - level buying opportunities [3]. Market Information - As of August 3, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 970,000 tons, compared with 1.3 million tons in the same period of the previous year [3]. - US private exporters reported selling 128,000 tons of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 sales year [3]. - In July 2025, Muyuan sold 6.355 million commercial pigs, with a year - on - year change of 13.02%. The average sales price was 14.30 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year change of - 21.86%. The sales revenue was 11.639 billion yuan, with a year - on - year change of - 10.41% [4]. - EU officials stated that the 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US is all - inclusive, including the most - favored - nation tariff [4]. - Malaysia plans to increase the allocation for the palm oil replanting project to 1.4 billion ringgit (about $331 million) from 2026 to 2030 to speed up the national replanting process [4].