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农产品日报-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:32
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillation [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillation [2] - Oils: Weak [2] - Eggs: Oscillation [2] - Pigs: Oscillation [3] Core Views - Corn: On Wednesday, the main corn 2507 contract rose first and then fell. After the May Day holiday, the corn futures price soared again, which may support the spot market. The supply of corn in the Northeast production area is limited, and prices are rising. In the North China region, corn prices continue to rise. Affected by the increase in production area prices, traders in the sales area are more inclined to hold prices, but high - price transactions are average. Enterprises are increasing their purchases of wheat as a substitute. Technically, both futures and spot prices of corn are strong [2]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to trade tensions and weak demand. The dry weather in the Midwest is conducive to soybean sowing. It is estimated that the US soybean production in the 25/26 season will increase by 1% to 117 million tons. Brazil's soybean production in May is expected to be 12.6 million tons. In the domestic market, the spot price of soybean meal remains weak. The operation rhythm of oil mills varies by region. Funds are flowing back into the futures market, waiting for the results of the talks. The operation strategy is mainly based on oscillation, and the 9 - 1 positive spread should be held [2]. - Oils: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell for the seventh consecutive day due to concerns about increased production and weak demand from major consumers. US soybean oil prices declined, following the drop in US soybeans and crude oil. Canadian rapeseed prices rose, but the market fluctuated before the statistics report. It is estimated that the Canadian rapeseed production in the 25/26 season will be 18.2 million tons, a 2.1% increase year - on - year. In the domestic market, palm oil prices continued to decline, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices were relatively strong. The strategy is to participate in the short - term [2]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, egg futures fluctuated and adjusted. Affected by the current position - limit system, the main egg contract needs to shift positions. The spot price of eggs decreased. Considering the negative impact of the upcoming rainy season on demand and the increasing supply, egg prices are likely to decline. However, if egg prices fall, the number of culled chickens may increase, which could relieve future supply pressure. After closing short positions, investors should wait and see, and pay attention to the impact of feed raw material prices and farmers' culling intentions on egg prices [2] - Pigs: On Wednesday, the September pig contract fluctuated upwards. The spot price of pigs in Henan slightly increased. Technically, the bottom of the pig price is rising, and the increase in feed raw material prices supports the pig price, which is expected to remain strong [3] Summary by Directory Market Information - The People's Bank of China announced the re - loan and re - discount interest rates. The 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year agricultural and small - business support re - loan interest rates are 1.2%, 1.4%, and 1.5% respectively. The financial stability re - loan interest rate is 1.75%, and the interest rate during the extension period is 3.77%. The re - discount interest rate is 1.75% [4] - Analyst Dorab Mistry predicts that from June to November, the trading price of Malaysian palm oil futures will be 3,500 ringgit per ton, and palm oil inventory will start to accumulate due to continuous production recovery [4] - Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and hold talks with the US. The talks are held at the request of the US, and China's stance against the US's abuse of tariffs remains unchanged [4] - Reuters predicts that the average US soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 4.338 billion bushels, with an estimated range of 4.3 - 4.4 billion bushels [4] - Since May, imported Brazilian soybeans in China have been cleared through customs and entering factories. The operating rate of oil mills is expected to recover rapidly, with the weekly soybean crushing volume expected to reach 1.75 million tons this week and over 2 million tons in the middle and late May [5] Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents contract spreads such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, eggs 9 - 1, and pigs 9 - 1 [6][7][9] - **Contract Basis**: The report shows contract basis including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][16][22]
有色商品日报-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:32
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper weakened with a 1.2% decline to $9,406/ton, and SHFE copper dropped 0.74% to CNY 77,450/ton. The Fed paused rate - cuts, boosting the dollar and suppressing non - ferrous metals. However, with an improving macro - outlook and strong copper demand since April leading to rapid inventory drawdown, there is no strong reason to be bearish on copper. Copper prices are expected to reach CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton. Attention should be paid to downstream acceptance at high prices and inventory performance in late May [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina and沪铝 (SHFE aluminum) both trended weakly. Alumina may rebound slightly after the holiday driven by electrolytic aluminum, but will continue to be in an oversupply situation. Aluminum ingot de - stocking is slowing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider bottom - fishing in stages [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.38% to $15,630/ton, and SHFE nickel dropped 0.35% to CNY 123,640/ton. Stainless steel prices will oscillate with cost support at the bottom and demand constraints at the top. Short - term nickel ore is relatively strong, but if primary nickel inventory continues to accumulate, it will put pressure on nickel prices [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Copper**: LME copper prices fell, and SHFE copper also declined. The Fed's pause in rate - cuts affected the market, but strong demand and inventory drawdown supported prices. The expected price range is CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and SHFE aluminum prices were weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and aluminum ingot demand is waning [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined. Stainless steel prices will oscillate, and primary nickel inventory accumulation may pressure nickel prices [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices showed some changes, with inventory adjustments in different exchanges. For example, LME inventory decreased by 1,650 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts dropped by 3,381 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: Most prices remained stable, with minor changes in some indicators like lead ingot discounts [3]. - **Aluminum**: Prices of aluminum products changed, and inventory also adjusted. Alumina inventory increased by 43,000 tons on a weekly basis [3][4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel - related prices and inventory had some fluctuations, such as a decrease in SHFE nickel warehouse receipts by 416 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: Prices declined slightly, and inventory increased in some areas. For example, social inventory increased by 0.34 million tons on a weekly basis [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.6%, and inventory decreased in some cases [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [7][8][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [12][16][18]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [24][26][29]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series [30][32][35]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin [37][39][42]. Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A senior researcher in non - ferrous metals and precious metals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [44]. - Wang Heng: A non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [44]. - Zhu Xi: A non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly researching lithium and nickel [45].
光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:32
光期研究 光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 8 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 768.0 | 761.0 | 7.0 | I05-I09 | 60.0 | 56.5 | 3.5 | | I09 | 708.0 | 704.5 | 3.5 | I09-I01 | 27.0 | 25.0 | 2.0 | | I01 | 681.0 | 679.5 | 1.5 | I01-I05 | -87.0 | -81.5 | -5.5 | 图表1:09-01合约价差(单位:元/吨) 图表2:05-09合约价差(单位:元/吨) -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 ...
工业硅、多晶硅日报-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On May 7, polysilicon showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 35,520 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.14%. The position increased by 9,467 lots to 63,290 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon material was also 40,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract widened to 4,980 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 8,290 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.96%. The position increased by 3,246 lots to 18,280 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,617 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 8,550 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 205 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, traders cleared their inventories and pressured prices, and the downstream's willingness to stock up was lower than in previous years. After the holiday, the downstream demand still faced the pressure of a slowdown. In the short term, industrial silicon was difficult to break away from the bottom-finding rhythm due to the negative feedback from the downstream. For polysilicon, opportunities for the convergence of the spread between near and far months could be considered. Attention should be paid to whether new large-scale infrastructure or mandatory photovoltaic installation assessment policies would be introduced after the decline of distributed photovoltaics, which might trigger an oversold rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - On May 7, polysilicon and industrial silicon both showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The downstream demand was weak, and industrial silicon was in a bottom-finding rhythm. Opportunities for the convergence of the spread between near and far months of polysilicon could be considered. Attention should be paid to relevant policies that might trigger an oversold rebound [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with the largest decline of 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed by 75 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 890 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N-type polysilicon material, dense material, and cauliflower material remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 890 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 2,860 tons, the factory warehouse inventory decreased by 5,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 60,000 tons, the factory warehouse inventory increased by 0,800 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0,800 tons [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][12]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][26]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [29][31][38].
股指期货日度数据跟踪2025-05-08-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:32
股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-05-08 一、指数走势 05 月 07 日,上证综指涨跌幅 0.8%,收于 3342.67 点,成交额 5952.3 亿元,深成指数涨跌幅 0.22%,收于 10104.13 点,成交额 8730.87 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.14%,成交额 2965.22 亿元,其中开盘价 6171.61,收盘价 6111.49,当日最高价 6195.14,最低价 6063.64; 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.17%,成交额 2275.66 亿元,其中开盘价 5805.66,收盘价 5750.29,当日最高价 5819.24,最低价 5713.27; 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.61%,成交额 2860.11 亿元,其中开盘价 3861.58,收盘价 3831.63,当日最高价 3863.68,最低价 3814.99; 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.87%,成交额 806.55 亿元,其中开盘价 2685.56,收盘价 2670.7,当日最高价 2685.56,最低价 2656.2。 数据来源:Wind,光期研究所 数据来源:Wind,光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...
黑色商品日报-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:31
黑色商品日报(2025 年 5 月 8 日) 黑色商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢:昨日螺纹盘面小幅反弹,截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3098 元/吨,较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 21 元/吨,涨幅为 0.68%,持仓减少 3.02 万手。现货价格小幅上涨,成交回升,唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格上涨 40 元/吨至 2980 元/吨,杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3190 元/吨,全国建材成交量 | | | | 11.66 万吨。据钢谷网数据,本周全国建材产量下降 0.32 万吨至 426.98 万吨,社库下降 20.57 万吨至 637.92 | | | | 万吨,厂库增加 3.92 万吨至 320.45 万吨,建材表需下降 56.51 万吨至 443.63 万吨。受五一假期影响,本 | | | | 周库存降幅明显收窄,表需大幅回落,基本符合预期。央行宣布下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点,从 2025 年 5 | | | | 月 8 日起,由此前的 1.50%调整为 ...
光大期货软商品日报-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:31
软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报(2025 年 5 月 8 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三,ICE 美棉下跌 0.63%,报收 67.4 美分/磅,CF509 上涨 0.9%,报收 12900 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨,主力合约持仓环比下降 10843 手至 57.66 万手,新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13839 | | | | 元/吨,较前一日下降 7 元/吨,中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14113 元/吨,较前 | | | | 一日下降 70 元/吨。国际市场方面,美联储 5 月议息会议按兵不动,鲍威尔讲话 | | | | 后,市场小幅下调 6 月美联储降息的预期,美元指数振幅扩大,重心小幅上移,美 | | | | 棉价格承压下行。天气方面,最近跟踪数据显示,美国及德州棉花主产区受干旱影 | | | | 响面积环比下降,干旱扰动减弱。国内市场方面,郑棉期价重心小幅上移,宏观层 | | | | 面传来利好,提振市场情绪。基本面来看,驱动相对偏弱,关注后续天气层面变化。 | | | | 综合来看,情绪端有一定支撑,但缺乏 ...
光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:30
光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报(2025 年 5 月 8 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格偏强震荡,主力09合约收盘价1886元/吨,涨幅0.96%。现货市场 | 看涨 | | | 继续上调,主流地区价格上调幅度10~30元/吨,山东、河南地区市场价格均已涨至 | | | | 1900元/吨。基本面来看,昨日仍有企业检修,尿素日产水平进一步回落至19.92万 | | | | 吨,日环比降0.24万吨。需求端处于夏季用肥高峰期,但当前市场跟进情绪较为谨 | | | | 慎。一方面在于近期价格持续上涨,部分对高价存在抵触情绪,另一方面在于近期 | | | | 出口消息面影响持续发酵,产业多持观望态度以等待相关出口政策及会议落地。昨 | | | | 日收盘后出口相关会议及消息 出不 ,但实 有待进一步 证。整体来看,短期 | | | | 尿素市场出口消息扰动力度 升,期货盘面短期仍将延续偏强趋势,但价格上涨过 | | | | 多也仍将触发保供稳价机制,关注需求力度、出口形势变化及保供稳价政策导向。 | | | ...
光大期货金融期货日报-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 03:40
光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报(2025 年 05 月 08 日) 光大期货金融期货日报 | | 昨日国债期货收盘,30 年期主力合约跌 0.62%,10 年期主力合约跌 0.19%, 5 年期主力合约跌 0.08%,2 年期主力合约跌 0.01%。中国央行开展 1955 亿 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元 7 天期逆回购操作,利率持稳于 1.5%。公开市场有 5308 亿元逆回购到期, | | | | 净回笼 3353 亿元。银行间市场方面,DR001 利率下行 4.82bp 至 1.6613%, | | | | DR007 4.7bp 1.6802%;交易所回购市场方面,GC001 13bp 利率下行 至 下行 | | | 国债 | 至 1.5750%,GC007 利率下行 6bp 至 1.6750%。昨日一揽子增量措施出台, | 偏空 | | | 央行发布 3 类 10 项措施,降准降息落地。当前债市抢跑定价基本面走弱和 | | | | 货币政策发力预期较为明显,在经济尚未受到明显外需的拖累,而降准降息 | | | | 已经落地的情况下,债市预计偏空运行。收益率曲 ...
光大期货能化商品日报-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 03:29
光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报(2025 年 5 月 8 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心回落,其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.02 美元至 58.07 | | | | 美元/桶,跌幅 1.73%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.03 美元至 61.12 | | | | 美元/桶,跌幅 1.66%。SC2506 以 459 元/桶收盘,下跌 7.1 元/桶, | | | | 跌幅 1.52%。美联储周三维持利率不变,但指出通胀和失业率上升 | | | | 的风险增加,在联储努力评估关税政策的影响之际,这进一步令 | | | | 经济前景蒙阴。FOMC 表示,经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。 | | | | 在这次会议上,决策者们一致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在 | | | | 4.25%-4.50%不变。EIA 公布的库存报告显示,截至 5 月 2 日当 | | | 原油 | 周,美国商业原油库存减少 200 万桶,至 4.384 亿桶,此前市场预 | 震荡 | | | 期为减少 80 万桶。截至 5 月 2 日 ...