Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index market showed a trend of hitting bottom and rebounding throughout the day, with all three major indices rising. The outlook for relevant themes remains optimistic in the long - term, but there are uncertainties from the US's debt pressure and trade policies. Short - term liquidity may be affected, and it is expected that volatility will increase this week, suggesting attention to option double - buying or ratio spread strategies [1]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate. Although recent factors have led to a short - term strengthening of bonds, there is a lack of strong impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index**: The market recovered after hitting bottom, with about 3000 stocks rising in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets, and the trading volume on this day was 1.66 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee has attracted high market attention. The strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and technology remains unchanged, but there are uncertainties from the US and potential impacts on short - term liquidity. The futures market has a large discount, and option implied volatility is low. Volatility is expected to increase this week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous day, treasury bond futures closed with declines in various contracts. The central bank conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan. Economic data shows a weak recovery trend. Although there was a short - term strengthening due to factors such as the intensification of the Sino - US tariff war, there is a lack of strong impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 23, 2025, compared with the previous day, IH rose 18.2 points (0.61%), IF rose 17.4 points (0.38%), IC rose 28.4 points (0.41%), and IM rose 15.8 points (0.22%) [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 16.8 points (0.56%), the CSI 300 rose 13.8 points (0.30%), the CSI 500 rose 14.5 points (0.20%), and the CSI 1000 fell 4.1 points (- 0.06%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 23, 2025, compared with the previous day, TS fell 0.022 points (- 0.02%), TF fell 0.09 points (- 0.09%), T fell 0.11 points (- 0.10%), and TL fell 0.40 points (- 0.35%) [3]. Market News - As of October 22, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for the national automobile trade - in program exceeded 10 million, including over 3.4 million for vehicle scrapping and replacement and over 6.6 million for replacement [4]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises, emphasizing scientific planning, focusing on enhancing core functions and competitiveness, and promoting layout optimization and structural adjustment [4]. - From October 24 to 27, 2025, Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The document provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, showing the price trends and basis changes of these contracts from January 2024 to July 2025 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts include the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, covering data from 2023 to 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][20]. - **Exchange Rates**: The document presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies, with data spanning from January 2023 to July 2025 [24][25][26][28][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily comments and views on various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride. Most products are expected to be in a volatile state [1][3][5]. - For crude oil, due to sanctions on Russia and potential supply disruptions, the price is expected to be strong, but macro - variables bring uncertainty [1]. - For fuel oil, the market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure [3]. - For asphalt, terminal demand is weak, and high supply may suppress prices, but it may fluctuate with crude oil [3]. - For polyester, it follows the cost - side fluctuation with sufficient supply and some support from downstream demand [5]. - For rubber, it has a short - term rebound adjustment with some tightness in the liquidity of some rubber types [5]. - For methanol, supply is at a high level, and it is recommended to pay attention to certain trading strategies [7]. - For polyolefins, short - term crude oil rebound supports the price, but the fundamental driving force is weakening [7]. - For polyvinyl chloride, it has a demand for price repair, but the rebound height is limited due to high inventory [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 12 - month contract rose $3.29 to $61.79/barrel (5.62% increase), Brent 12 - month contract rose $3.40 to $65.99/barrel (5.43% increase), and SC2511 rose 10.6 yuan/barrel to 463.8 yuan/barrel (2.34% increase). Sanctions on Russia increase the risk of supply disruptions, and the EU's new sanctions also affect the market. However, macro - variables bring uncertainty to the price increase [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 3.42% to 2752 yuan/ton, and LU2512 rose 2.9% to 3190 yuan/ton. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, while Fujeirah's increased. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 rose 2.31% to 3277 yuan/ton. Terminal demand is weak, especially in the north due to weather, and high supply may suppress prices [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.58% to 4508 yuan/ton, EG2601 rose 1.09% to 4095 yuan/ton. Some devices have changes, and the polyester chain follows the cost - side fluctuation with support from downstream demand [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 95 yuan/ton to 15245 yuan/ton, NR rose 80 yuan/ton to 12430 yuan/ton, and BR rose 70 yuan/ton to 11120 yuan/ton. Myanmar plans to increase rubber production, and the rubber market has a short - term rebound adjustment [5]. - **Methanol**: Supply is at a high level both domestically and overseas. It is recommended to pay attention to strategies such as going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and monthly positive spreads [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Short - term crude oil rebound supports the price, but the fundamental driving force is weakening as demand growth slows down [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price has a demand for repair, but the high inventory limits the rebound height due to large supply - demand pressure and weak export prospects [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 24, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - Trump imposed further sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, and the US Treasury Secretary announced the specific targets. These sanctions increase the risk of supply disruptions in Russia [15]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase production if necessary, but Putin believes that the global market needs time to replace Russian oil [15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [17][20][23]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, over different time periods [36][40][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., over different time periods [50][52][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, B - W spreads, and spreads between other products like fuel oil and asphalt [66][72][73]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profits of PP and LLDPE [76]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team consists of members with different specializations, including a director, analysts for different product categories. Each member has rich experience and achievements in the energy and chemical research field [83][84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 1.63% to 77,120 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan/ton to 74,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 250 yuan/ton to 72,100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,230 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 873 tons to 29,019 tons [3]. - Supply is expected to increase month - on - month overall. The weekly production increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons, and the lithium carbonate production in October increased by 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. On the demand side, in the week, the production of ternary materials increased by 271 tons to 17,247 tons, and the inventory increased by 114 tons to 17,963 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 572 tons to 85,039 tons, and the inventory increased by 970 tons to 102,818 tons; the weekly cell production increased by 1.2% to 28.27GWh, among which lithium iron increased by 1.4% to 21.12GWh, and ternary increased by 0.8% to 7.4GWh. In October, the peak season continued, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode + electrolyte + others increased by 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline to 133,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days decreased significantly [3]. - Recently, due to the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and firm lithium ore prices, there is still support below the short - term price. Yesterday, there was news disturbance on the supply side, and the price strengthened again in the afternoon. However, according to publicly available market information, there is still an expectation of project resumption for lithium ore projects in Jiangxi in November. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish and pay attention to the warehouse receipt inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 77,120 yuan/ton, up 1,140 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 76,180 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained unchanged at 1,115 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,845 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 6,475 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,650 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 74,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 72,100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 73,230 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 78,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 67,930 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price was 87,000 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 1,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,178.47 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, such as the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 102,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 142,925 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of various cells and batteries also showed an upward trend, such as the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.493 yuan/Wh, up 0.097 yuan; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.51 yuan/Wh, up 0.1 yuan [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][14] - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) - domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][19] - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [21][22][25] - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][30] - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from February to October 2025 [33][35] - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and purchased lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. The report mainly presents data on index trends, the impact of sector movements on indices, and data related to stock index futures basis and roll - over point differentials. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Trends - On October 22, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.07%, closing at 3913.76 points with a trading volume of 7415.25 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of -0.62%, closing at 12996.61 points with a trading volume of 9263.32 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of -0.43%, with a trading volume of 3321.81 billion yuan, an opening price of 7304.96, a closing price of 7312.21, a high of 7349.8, and a low of 7278.71 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index had a change of -0.8%, with a trading volume of 2862.0 billion yuan, an opening price of 7135.21, a closing price of 7128.48, a high of 7166.56, and a low of 7101.83 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index had a change of 0.09%, with a trading volume of 1238.41 billion yuan, an opening price of 2987.35, a closing price of 3010.1, a high of 3015.17, and a low of 2987.35 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index had a change of -0.33%, with a trading volume of 4409.35 billion yuan, an opening price of 4576.03, a closing price of 4592.57, a high of 4603.49, and a low of 4567.24 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 31.84 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as computer, non - ferrous metals, and electronics significantly pulled the index down [3]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased by 57.14 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment significantly pulled the index down [3]. - The SSE 300 Index decreased by 15.3 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as banks and household appliances pulled the index up, while non - ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment pulled the index down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index increased by 2.84 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as banks, electronics, and petroleum and petrochemicals pulled the index up, while national defense and military industry, pharmaceutical biology, and non - ferrous metals pulled the index down [3]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of -76.36, IM01 had -152.24, IM02 had -368.67, and IM03 had -578.19 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of -62.99, IC01 had -117.82, IC02 had -282.45, and IC03 had -459.31 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of -14.85, IF01 had -26.63, IF02 had -52.83, and IF03 had -89.76 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of -3.45, IH01 had -3.28, IH02 had -2.81, and IH03 had -4.66 [14]. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differentials and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differentials and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was -73.02267, IM00 - 02 was -259.4522, etc. [26]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differentials and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was -68.64222, IC00 - 02 was -225.568, etc. [23]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differentials and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was -12.31678, IF00 - 02 was -41.14122, etc. [27]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differentials and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 1.4593333, IH00 - 02 was 1.3637778, etc. [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on cotton is that it will be in a volatile state. On Wednesday, ICE US cotton fell 1.2% to 63.65 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.3% to 13,535 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 417 lots to 593,000 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,560 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, there are still macro - level disturbances, and Trump's speech affected market sentiment. Domestically, the upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures is due to different views on the increase in domestic cotton production in the 2025/26 season, a slight increase in the purchase price of new cotton in southern Xinjiang, and good economic data in the third quarter. In the short term, it is difficult for Zhengzhou cotton to break out of the volatile range [2]. - The view on sugar is also that it will be in a volatile state. Agricultural consulting firm Datagro predicts that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will be about 625 million tons, with sugar production of 42.3 million tons and a sugar - making ratio of 52%. Domestic spot markets are clearing inventories. The futures price is following the weakness of raw sugar and is testing the support at the 5400 mark. Attention should be paid to India's export policy for the new season [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton fell 1.2% to 63.65 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.3% to 13,535 yuan per ton. The main contract position decreased by 417 lots to 593,000 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,560 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan. International macro - level disturbances and Trump's speech affected the market. Domestically, factors such as different views on production, rising purchase prices in southern Xinjiang, and good economic data led to the upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures. Short - term volatility is expected [2]. - **Sugar**: Datagro predicts Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume, sugar production, and sugar - making ratio. Domestic spot markets are clearing inventories. The futures price is weak, following raw sugar, and testing the 5400 mark. Attention should be paid to India's new - season export policy [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 40 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main contract basis was 1237 yuan, up 49 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,643 yuan per ton, up 57 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,772 yuan per ton, up 44 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 46 yuan, up 6 yuan; the main contract basis was 344 yuan, up 2 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5770 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [3]. 3. Market Information - On October 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2565, down 14 from the previous day, with 286 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were reported, and the load and inventory data of yarn and short - fiber cloth were also provided [4]. - On October 22, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5770 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5750 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8313, down 63 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Charts for cotton include the closing price and basis of the main contract, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [7][10][11]. - Charts for sugar include the closing price and basis of the main contract, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices rose slightly, with a continued loss in domestic refined copper spot imports. Due to the US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets, the copper market is cautious. Copper prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - economic developments and the market's reaction to Fed rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated weakly, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina has weak support at the bottom and is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum is driven by both macro and micro factors, with strong overall momentum, and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum remains tight, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell, while SHFE nickel rose slightly. The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and macro - economic disturbances [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices rose, and domestic prices increased slightly. The US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets make the copper market cautious. Copper prices will likely oscillate within the current range in the short term. LME inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 521 tons to 314,341 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and BC copper remained at 12,965 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina oscillated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,814 yuan/ton, a 0.32% decline. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina's supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum has strong driving forces and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.46% to 15,140 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.03% to 121,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 402 tons to 250,878 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is stable, and the new energy industry chain has a tight raw material supply. Primary nickel inventory pressure is increasing, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 770 yuan/ton to 84,935 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.5 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,080 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warrants decreased by 3,156 tons to 24,977 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20,960 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanhai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 20,890 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 2,127 tons to 67,270 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.2 million tons to 62.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons, and social inventory increased by 4,014 tons to 47,708 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 21,990 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 16.29 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 280,940 yuan/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides historical data charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It shows historical data charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents historical data charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displays historical data charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Provides historical data charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Includes historical data charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - I05 closed at 753.0 today, up 3.5 from the previous day; I09 closed at 731.0, up 1.5; I01 closed at 774.0, up 4.5 [3] - The I05 - I09 spread is 22.0 today, up 2.0 from the previous day; I09 - I01 is -43.0, down 3.0; I01 - I05 is 21.0, up 1.0 [3] Group 3: Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines (Carajás fines), the basis has changed. For example, Carajás fines' basis decreased by 3 to 91 today [5] - The report also provides basis data for other varieties like BRBF, Newman fines, etc., along with their price changes and basis changes [5] Group 4: Contract and Brand Adjustments - Since December 2, the main iron ore contract is I2205. Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian iron concentrate) are added with a brand premium of 0 starting from the I2202 contract [10] - Brand premiums for existing varieties are adjusted. Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and others are 0 [10] - Four more brands (Taigang iron concentrate, Magang iron concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) are added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0, applicable to I2312 and later contracts [10][11] Group 5: Variety Spread Data - PB lump - PB fines spread is 130.0 today, down 2.0 from the previous day; PB fines - mixed fines spread is 37.0, down 1.0 [12] - The report also shows spread data for other variety combinations and their changes [12] Group 6: Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with their respective positions and work experience [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report On October 22, industrial silicon fluctuated with a slight upward trend, while polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the demand side faces the expectation of production control in the crystalline silicon industry. The overhaul of silicone and the limited supply of aluminum alloy comprehensively suppress the market, with strong downward driving forces in the fundamentals. A photovoltaic conference has been held in Beijing for several days, and there are reports that the state will regulate the photovoltaic production capacity. The market is waiting for the conference results, and short - term policy expectations provide strong bottom support. However, the continuous increase in production scheduling and poor downstream acceptance have not resolved the high - pressure inventory situation. Currently, the market is full of news about the photovoltaic conference and the progress of stockpiling, and speculative sentiment has returned. The market fluctuates strongly, so it is recommended to enter the market cautiously. Attention should be paid to the expectation adjustment after the policy is implemented and the actual situation of production reduction and sales control in the silicon material sector [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research View - On October 22, the main contract of industrial silicon 2511 closed at 8,485 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.06% and a reduction of 10,964 lots in positions to 96,600 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot was 9,523 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 235 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract of polysilicon 2511 closed at 50,310 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.55% and a reduction of 3,221 lots in positions to 49,016 lots. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot changed from a discount to a premium of 1,640 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 150 yuan/ton to 8,615 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot price: Most prices remained stable, with only a few showing changes. For example, the price of 421 silicon in some regions decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon in Xinjiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 113 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 835 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 3,000 tons [3]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 1,780 yuan/ton to 50,860 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot price: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 1,640 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 14,000 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [3]. Organic Silicon - Spot price: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,300 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][18]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22]. 3.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][34]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research, focusing on different fields such as precious metals, aluminum - silicon, and lithium - nickel [36][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives investment outlooks for individual agricultural products: corn - volatile; soybean meal - volatile; oils - volatile (with a potential upward trend for palm oil); eggs - volatile; and pigs - volatile [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are under pressure due to a strong harvest outlook, with expectations of further declines in futures prices. Group companies are taking short positions in forward contracts. North China corn prices are stable to slightly strong, while North Port prices are under pressure after a wave of restocking [1] - Soybean meal futures are volatile. CBOT soybeans rose on improved export prospects, and the US government plans to assist farmers. Brazilian soybean exports and production are expected to increase. In the domestic market, protein meal prices hit a new low, and the supply of soybean and rapeseed meal is ample, with cautious demand [1] - Oils are volatile. BMD palm oil fell for three consecutive days, with production increasing more than exports in October. Indonesia's biodiesel policy has been upgraded, and international crude oil prices are fluctuating. Domestic palm oil inventories have risen, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories have declined slightly [1] - Egg prices are weak due to high supply pressure, and the elimination of excess production capacity is not clear. Future egg production capacity will depend on farmers' decisions on replenishment and culling [1] - Pig prices are volatile. After a sharp decline, there is an expectation of a technical rebound. Northeast pig prices are relatively strong, but there is limited upward momentum due to weak external demand and high supply pressure from large - scale farms [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: On Wednesday, corn futures (contract 2601) opened slightly lower and trended down. North Port prices were under pressure, while North China prices were stable to slightly strong. Shandong deep - processing enterprises adjusted prices within a range of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Considering the strong harvest this year, there is a possibility of further declines in corn futures prices [1] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday due to improved export prospects and US government assistance plans. Brazilian soybean exports in October increased by over 1 million tons year - on - year, and production is expected to reach 1.785 billion tons. Domestic protein meal prices hit a new low, and the supply of soybean and rapeseed meal is ample, with cautious demand [1] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for three consecutive days, with production increasing by 10.77% in October 1 - 20 compared to exports growing by 2.5% - 4.3%. Indonesia's biodiesel consumption increased by nearly 10% in January - September. Domestic palm oil inventories rose, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories declined slightly [1] - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the egg futures contract 2512 closed down 0.71%. Spot egg prices were mostly stable, with some declines in certain regions. High supply pressure continues to weigh on egg prices [1] - **Pigs**: On Wednesday, the pig futures contract 2601 closed in a doji pattern. Northeast pig prices were relatively strong, but there is limited upward momentum due to weak external demand and high supply pressure from large - scale farms. The narrowing spread between standard and fat pigs and the entry of second - fattening farmers have alleviated supply pressure to some extent [2] 3.2 Market Information - Russia has reduced the wheat export tariff by 66% to 99.1 rubles per ton since October 22, while barley and corn tariffs remain at zero [2] - On October 22, the Russian Federation Council revoked the "Plutonium Management and Disposal Agreement" with the US [3] - Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 10.77% from October 1 - 20, with different growth rates in different regions [3] - Since August, the average wholesale price of pork has declined for ten consecutive weeks. A researcher believes that the pig price in mid - October may be the lowest for the year [3] - In September 2025, the national industrial feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The prices of major feed products declined year - on - year, and the proportion of corn and soybean meal in feed decreased [4] 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads (1 - 5 spreads) for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, as well as contract basis charts for these products, but does not provide specific data analysis [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][18][23] 3.4 Team Member Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry honors [27] - Hou Xueling is an analyst for soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of experience and multiple industry awards [27] - Kong Hailan is a researcher for eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, with a master's degree in economics and experience in media interviews [27]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no explicit industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For steel products, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to trade in a narrow range. The improvement in construction site fund availability is positive for rebar demand. For iron ore, the price will show a range - bound oscillation in the short term, with high demand providing support but overall weak sentiment in the black commodities market. For coking coal and coke, both are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term due to supply and demand factors and the poor profitability of the steel industry. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, they are expected to trade sideways in the short term, lacking clear directional guidance [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Research Views - **Steel (Rebar)**: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.69%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. This week, national building materials production decreased by 2.45 tons to 399.58 tons, social inventory decreased by 9.97 tons to 654.01 tons, factory inventory decreased by 0.64 tons to 363.88 tons, and apparent demand increased by 41.43 tons to 410.19 tons. Construction site fund availability reached the highest level since the Spring Festival this year [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 774 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.6%) from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. Port spot prices rose. Australian and Brazilian shipments increased slightly, and iron - making water production decreased. Steel mills' profitability declined, and 47 port inventories continued to accumulate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1209.5 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan/ton (2.76%), with an increase in positions. Spot prices in some areas changed. Supply was tightened due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and accidents. Demand remained high, but the profitability of the steel and coking industries was poor [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1709.5 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan/ton (2.24%), with a decrease in positions. Spot prices at ports rose. Coke production was stable, but profit margins decreased, and some enterprises reduced production. Demand was supported by high iron - making water production, but the weak steel prices affected the market [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Wednesday, the manganese silicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.97%. The main contract positions decreased. Market prices in some regions increased. Production stopped falling and rebounded, but downstream demand was low, and inventory reached a new high [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5538 yuan/ton, up 1.06%. The main contract positions decreased. Market prices in some regions increased. Production decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon) are provided, along with their daily changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 52.0, up 5.0 [4]. - **Profit and Price Ratios**: Information on profits (such as rebar's futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price ratios (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio) and their daily changes are presented. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 106.9, down 5.2 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various commodities over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar from 2022 - 2026 [16][18][21][23]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities over multiple years, like the 01 - 05 spread of rebar from 2001 - 2025 [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different commodities, such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43][44]. - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: Charts illustrate the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 - 2025 [46][47][49][50]. 4. Black Research Team - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with detailed information about their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications provided [52][53].