Report Industry Investment Rating All the varieties in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][6][7] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical commodities, including their price movements, market supply - demand situations, and influencing factors. Most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term due to various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand changes, and cost fluctuations [1][2][4]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI December contract rose $1.26 to $58.50/barrel (2.18% increase), Brent December contract rose $1.27 to $62.59/barrel (2.07% increase), and SC2512 rose 7.3 yuan/barrel to 449.1 yuan/barrel (1.65% increase). US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's remarks on Russia and US - India trade progress, may drive up short - term price volatility [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts FU2601 and LU2512 rose. In September 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to weak demand and sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 rose. This week, the social inventory rate decreased slightly, the refinery inventory increased slightly, and the plant operating rate increased slightly. Terminal demand is weak, and high supply may suppress prices [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose on Wednesday. Some MEG and refinery units have maintenance plans. Korean PX exports increased. Polyester supply is sufficient, and downstream demand provides some support. The polyester chain follows cost fluctuations [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts showed little change. The EU's policy implementation for small and medium - sized enterprises is postponed. Some rubber varieties have tight liquidity, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices were reported. Domestic and overseas supply has returned to a high level, but future Iranian production growth is limited. Port sanctions may reduce future arrivals. It is recommended to consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices and production margins were reported. Short - term supply will remain high, and demand growth will slow down. Crude oil rebound supports prices, but the fundamentals drive is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions changed little. Supply - demand pressure is high, and exports are affected by policies. The price has a need for phased repair, but the rebound is limited by high inventories [7]. Daily Data Monitoring This part provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical commodities on October 23, 2025, as well as the percentage of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. Market News - The US EIA reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased. Analysts believe that oil demand is strong, and there is no sign of crude oil surplus in the US [13]. - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and Trump denied media reports about allowing Ukraine to use long - range missiles against Russia [13]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical commodities from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, etc. [15][16][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis data of main contracts for various commodities, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [30][34][35] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts for multiple commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: It includes the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads [60][62][64] - **Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profits of some commodities, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [69][70] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and multiple awards [75]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth industry research and many awards [76]. - **Di Yilin**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with relevant research achievements and awards [77]. - **Peng Haibo**: A methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory application [78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton is "Sideways" [1] - The investment rating for sugar is "Sideways with a Weak Bias" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.39% to 64.41 cents per pound, and CF601 increased 0.78% to 13,540 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 231 lots to 593,200 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,530 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day. The international market focuses on the macro - level, with the Fed's two consecutive 25 - BP interest rate cuts this year fully priced in by the market, and the U.S. dollar index relatively strong, so U.S. cotton prices lack a continuous upward drive. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures has been rising, influenced by different views on domestic cotton production growth in the 2025/26 season, the rising purchase price of new cotton in southern Xinjiang, and the good Q3 economic data and a significant meeting boosting market sentiment. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to remain in a sideways range, with supply and hedging pressure on the upside and cost and expectations as support on the downside [1] - For sugar, in the third week of October, Brazil exported 2.3346 million tons of sugar and molasses, a 2.68% decrease compared to the same period last year. The daily average export volume was 179,500 tons. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed some adjustments. Affected by sufficient supply, the raw sugar futures price dropped by over 3% yesterday, with weak short - term rebound momentum. The domestic spot market had average trading volume, with prices continuing to decline, old sugar being actively destocked, and the futures price breaking below the 5400 - point mark, showing a weak trend with short - term bearish sentiment hard to change [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 65, down 10; the main basis was 1188, down 26. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,586 yuan per ton, up 34, and the national spot price was 14,728 yuan per ton, up 49 [2] - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 40, up 1; the main basis was 342, down 10. The spot price in Nanning was 5770 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5780 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2579, down 19 from the previous trading day, with 263 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions on that day were: 14,586 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,755 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,753 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,913 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.4, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.2, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52, and the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.5, all unchanged from the previous day [3] - **Sugar**: On October 21, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5770 yuan per ton, and in Liuzhou was 5780 yuan per ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8376, down 31 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts including those for cotton (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, China cotton price index) and sugar (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][9][11][15][18]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Weak consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [1] Group 2: Core Views - Steel: The steel billet exports have significantly increased, alleviating the supply pressure of rebar. Recently, steel mills' profits have been continuously shrinking, with more mills reducing production and undergoing maintenance. Meanwhile, downstream demand remains low, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand for rebar. It is expected that the rebar futures market will continue to operate in a weak consolidation pattern in the short term [1]. - Iron ore: The supply of iron ore from Australia and Brazil has slightly increased, and the demand for iron ore remains high, which provides strong support for prices. However, steel mills' profits have declined, and the demand for steel remains weak, causing the sentiment in the black commodity market to turn bearish. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to show a range-bound oscillation pattern [1]. - Coking coal: Some coal mines have reduced or halted production due to over - production inspections and safety checks, leading to a continuous tightening of the coking coal market supply, which strongly supports coking coal prices. Downstream coke enterprises are more resistant to high - priced resources and are cautious in their purchases. In the short term, the coking coal futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation pattern [1]. - Coke: Mainstream coke enterprises in many regions have initiated a second price increase, but steel mills have not responded yet. Coke enterprises' production levels are relatively stable, and their inventories have decreased to a low level. The increase in coking coal prices has led to a decline in coke enterprises' profits. In the short term, the coke futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation pattern [1]. - Manganese silicon: The prices of the black commodity sector have shown some divergence recently. The production of manganese silicon has stopped falling and rebounded, while the demand from downstream steel mills has continued to decline. The inventory of sample enterprises has gradually increased. In the short term, the manganese silicon market is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the black commodity sector [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon has slightly decreased recently, which has supported the ferrosilicon futures prices. However, the overall demand stimulation is limited, and the inventory remains at a high level. In the short term, the ferrosilicon market is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [1]. Group 3: Summary of Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads: For different black commodities, the spreads between different contracts (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) have shown various changes, including increases and decreases [4]. - Basis: The basis of each black commodity's main contract has also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - Spot prices: The spot prices of different black commodities in various regions have different trends, including price increases, decreases, and stability [4]. - Profits and spreads: The profits of different steel - making processes (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and the spreads between different commodities (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) have also changed [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - Main contract prices: The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) over the years through charts, showing their price trends [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - Main contract basis: The basis of the main contracts of various black commodities over different time periods is presented through charts, reflecting the relationship between futures and spot prices [17][18][19][21][22][23][24]. - Inter - period contract spreads: The spreads between different contracts of various black commodities (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc.) over different time periods are presented through charts, showing the price differences between different contracts [27][29][30][32][33][35][36][37][39][41]. - Inter - commodity contract spreads: The spreads between different black commodities (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) over the years are presented through charts, reflecting the price relationships between different commodities [42][43][44][45]. - Rebar profits: The report presents the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar over the years through charts, showing the profit trends of rebar production [47][48][50][51]. Group 5: Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and expertise in the black commodity field [53][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract dropped 0.26% to 75,980 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 100 yuan/ton to 74,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose 100 yuan/ton to 71,850 yuan/ton. The inventory of warehouse receipts decreased by 813 tons to 29,892 tons [3]. - The overall supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The weekly output increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate in October increased by 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. On the demand side, the production and inventory of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and battery cells all increased. In October, the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major cathode materials increased by 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode materials, electrolytes, and others increased by 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. The total inventory continued to decline to 133,000 tons [3]. - Due to the current peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and firm lithium ore prices, there is still support for short - term prices. However, there is an expectation of project restart in Jiangxi lithium ore projects in November, so the price increase should be viewed with caution [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Lithium Ore Prices**: The closing prices of the main and continuous contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased. The prices of some lithium ores, such as lithium spodumene concentrate and certain types of lithium mica, also rose, while the prices of some phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ores decreased [5]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton, while the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged [5]. - **Other Product Prices**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 3,000 yuan/ton. The prices of some ternary precursors, cathode materials, and battery cells also showed varying degrees of increase [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different types of lithium mica, and phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2025 [10][12]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [17]. - **Precursor and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][31]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from February to October 2025 [34][36]. - **Production Cost**: A chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides data on index trends, the impact of sector movements on indices, and information about stock index futures basis and roll - over point differences. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index Trends - On October 21st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36% to close at 3916.33 points with a trading volume of 837.938 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.06% to close at 13077.32 points with a trading volume of 1035.956 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 index rose by 1.45% with a trading volume of 348.159 billion yuan, opening at 7257.11, closing at 7344.05, with a high of 7350.92 and a low of 7236.63 [1]. - The CSI 500 index rose by 1.64% with a trading volume of 344.991 billion yuan, opening at 7095.62, closing at 7185.62, with a high of 7193.73 and a low of 7082.3 [1]. - The SSE 50 index rose by 1.09% with a trading volume of 147.27 billion yuan, opening at 2983.28, closing at 3007.26, with a high of 3014.1 and a low of 2979.12 [1]. - The SSE 300 index rose by 1.53% with a trading volume of 551.39 billion yuan, opening at 4556.12, closing at 4607.87, with a high of 4615.46 and a low of 4547.93 [1]. 3.2 Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 104.87 points from the previous close, and sectors such as electronics and power equipment significantly boosted the index [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 115.98 points from the previous close, and the electronics sector significantly boosted the index [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 69.65 points from the previous close, and sectors such as electronics, communication, and power equipment significantly boosted the index [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 32.4 points from the previous close, and sectors such as electronics and banks significantly boosted the index [2]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 60.67, IM01 of - 135.11, IM02 of - 354.02, and IM03 of - 562.12 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 55.3, IC01 of - 109.79, IC02 of - 274.46, and IC03 of - 455.37 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.92, IF01 of - 21.29, IF02 of - 47.53, and IF03 of - 83.78 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.17, IH01 of - 0.02, IH02 of 0.36, and IH03 of - 0.72 [13]. 3.4 Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points are provided, including specific values for different contract combinations (e.g., IM00 - 01, IC00 - 02) [23][25][26][27].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 10 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力01合约收盘价1609元/吨，微幅上涨0.12%。现货 | 震荡 | | | 市场弱势震荡，昨日山东、河南地区市场价格均为1540元/吨，日环比均继续下跌10 | | | | 元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应阶段性低位波动，行业日产量昨日18.35万吨，日环比 | | | | 增0.1万吨。需求跟进局部有所好转，但不同地区之间分化明显。昨日华东地区产销 | | | | 增至130%以上，其余地区产销多在60%-80%区间，个别地区仍不足10%。整体来看 | | | | ，尿素基本面未有实质性好转，但市场关于出口等方面消息扰动不断，后续需要等 | | | | 待官方验证。预计盘面仍维持宽幅震荡趋势，关注中下游低价采购力度、印标最终 | | | | 结果、出口政策动态及本周库存数据。 | | | | 周二纯碱期货价格延续震荡格局，主力01合约收盘价1210元/吨，跌幅1.47%。现货 市场报价多数稳定，贸 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn: The corn futures price continued to rebound on Tuesday, with the forward contracts 2607 and 2609 leading the rise and the near - month contracts following. The spot price in North China was strong. Traders' willingness to store increased as the bad - grain risk decreased. The short - term outlook is a shock rebound [1]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean closed lower on Tuesday due to profit - taking. The domestic protein meal continued to fluctuate. Although the spot supply of soybean meal was loose, the slow purchase of soybeans by oil mills from December to January provided cost support. The strategy is to maintain a shock mindset [1]. - Palm Oil and Other Oils: The BMD palm oil first rose and then fell on Tuesday. The ringgit - quoted palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 20 increased. The domestic oil futures price fluctuated. The stock of domestic palm oil climbed last week, while that of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased slightly. The strategy is a shock mindset [1]. - Eggs: During the position - shifting process of the egg futures on Tuesday, the price rebounded from a low level. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. The supply - side pressure was high, and the future focus is on the change in the breeding end's willingness to replenish and eliminate [1]. - Pigs: The main contract of live pigs 2601 first fell and then rose on Tuesday. The pig price in Northeast China was strong. The entry of second - fattening pigs supported the market to some extent, but the overall supply - demand situation was still oversupplied, with a shock outlook [2]. Group 3: Market Information - Palm Oil: The SPPOMA data showed that from October 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit, oil - extraction rate, and output of Malaysian palm oil increased compared to the same period last month. AmSpec data indicated that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [2][3]. - Wheat: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launched a 60 - day campaign on October 20 to combat autumn floods, rush to sow wheat, and promote strong seedlings. Seven working groups and scientific and technological teams were dispatched to major winter - wheat - producing provinces in the Huang - Huai - Hai region [3]. Group 4: Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - Contracts including corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, soybean oil 1 - 5, palm oil 1 - 5, eggs 1 - 5, and live pigs 1 - 5 spreads are presented in the report [4][5][6][10][14]. 4.2 Contract Basis - Contracts including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs basis are presented in the report [12][13][16][17][22]. Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to achieve many honors [26]. - Hou Xueling, an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, has rich experience and has won many awards and published multiple articles [26]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many team honors and been interviewed by mainstream media [26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock indices is "bullish" [1] - The investment rating for 5-year treasury bonds is "sideways" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For stock indices, the A-share market oscillated upwards, with the technology sector remaining strong. The Wind All-A Index rose 1.62%, and trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan. The medium - to - long - term outlook for technology - related themes is optimistic, but uncertainties come from US domestic debt and trade policies. Some brokerages' adjustment of margin financing conversion ratios may impact short - term liquidity. The futures market shows a large discount and low implied volatility in options. Volatility is expected to rise this week, and option double - buy or ratio spread strategies can be considered [1] - For 5 - year treasury bonds, treasury futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 685 billion yuan. Economic data shows a weak recovery. The recent relaxation of the capital side and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war have boosted the safe - haven sentiment, but the lack of restart of treasury bond trading and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations limit the upward momentum [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Stock Indices**: On October 21, 2025, the A - share market rose. The technology sector was strong, and the Wind All - A Index increased by 1.62%. The trading volume was 1.89 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all rose. The long - term technology - driven strategy remains unchanged, but there are uncertainties from the US. Some brokerages' margin financing ratio adjustments may affect short - term liquidity. The futures market discount reflects strong hedging demand, and low option implied volatility shows a wait - and - see attitude. Volatility is expected to increase this week [1] - **5 - year Treasury Bonds**: On Tuesday, treasury futures closed higher. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net injection of funds. The economic data shows a weak recovery. The recent relaxation of the capital side and the tariff war have increased the safe - haven sentiment, but the lack of restart of treasury bond trading and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations limit the upward movement [1][3] 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From October 20 to October 21, 2025, IH rose 1.16%, IF rose 1.57%, IC rose 2.08%, and IM rose 1.75% [4] - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50 rose 1.09%, the SSE 300 rose 1.53%, the CSI 500 rose 1.64%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.45% [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.04%, TF rose 0.06%, T rose 0.03%, and TL rose 0.25% [4] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased [4] 3. Market News - On October 20, the Ministry of Commerce held a policy interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises, with over 170 representatives participating. Officials from relevant departments responded to the enterprises' concerns [5] 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][19] - **Exchange Rates**: The report displays the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [21][22][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher; domestic copper trended stronger with oscillations, and the spot import window remained closed. There are differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut pace. With the US government shutdown continuing and uncertainties in Sino - US trade, the copper market is cautious. Before substantial progress in Sino - US trade, the market may not offer a higher premium. However, the continuous rise in gold and silver prices and the return of the gold - silver ratio make copper prices eager to rise. Currently, copper prices may remain at a relatively high level due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of prices exceeding the previous domestic historical high is low [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended stronger with oscillations. Alumina prices in the spot market declined, and the profit of alumina plants was further compressed. High - cost production capacity turned to losses and stopped production. After the rainy season ended, mine shipments resumed, and there is room for a decline in ore prices. Alumina is generally bearish but is starting to bottom out. The market re - evaluates the demand fulfillment in the second half of "Silver October", and aluminum prices maintain a relatively strong pattern. Whether they can rise further depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.53%, while SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories increased. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain shows stable nickel - iron prices, and stainless - steel prices are supported by nickel - iron. The social inventory of stainless steel increased significantly after the holiday. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw - material supply is tight, supporting prices. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is emerging, and nickel prices fluctuate widely, with caution needed regarding macro - level disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzes the macro - situation including differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut stance, the US government shutdown, and Sino - US trade uncertainties. Also considers demand factors and the impact of the Indonesian mine accident on copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Covers the price trends of alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy in the futures market, as well as price changes in the spot market such as alumina, aluminum ingots, and aluminum rods. Discusses factors like alumina plant profits, ore shipments, and inventory changes affecting aluminum prices [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Mentions the price changes of LME and SHFE nickel, inventory changes, the situation of the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain, and the new - energy industry chain, and points out that nickel prices fluctuate widely and are affected by macro factors [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Compares prices such as flat - copper, scrap copper, and downstream products between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and domestic social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Lead**: Compares prices of lead products such as 1 lead and recycled lead, lead - concentrate prices, and processing fees between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME and SHFE and changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Aluminum**: Compares prices of aluminum products such as无锡报价,南海报价, and aluminum alloy between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Nickel**: Compares prices of nickel products such as electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and nickel ore between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Zinc**: Compares prices of zinc products such as主力结算价, SMM 0 and 1 spot, and zinc alloy between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [6]. - **Tin**: Compares prices of tin products such as主力结算价, SMM现货, and tin concentrate between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME and SHFE and changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10][11]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Provides charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Provides charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Provides charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Provides charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Provides charts of smelting - related indicators such as copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **展大鹏**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial - product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity - research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by multiple media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the dynamics of the new - energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, she tracks the dynamics of the new - energy industry chain and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a slight rebound. However, considering the approaching end of the peak demand season and pessimistic market expectations for future demand, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to remain in a weak consolidation state [1]. - Iron Ore: With both supply and demand showing negative factors, such as decreased global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments, reduced iron - making output, and increased port inventory, the price of iron ore is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term [1]. - Coking Coal: Affected by factors such as stable production at the supply end, rigid replenishment demand at the demand end, and high - level shock of iron - making output, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Coke: With the narrowing of coking enterprise profit margins and reduced supply, and high - level operation of blast furnaces at the demand end, the coke futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The price of manganese silicon futures has shown a weakening trend. With the approaching of the steel procurement price determination and the weakening of cost support, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The price of ferrosilicon futures has stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by factors such as production reduction and weak downstream demand, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [3]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3049 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 18,200 lots in positions. The spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume recovered. This week, the national rebar production decreased by 22,400 tons to 2.0116 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand increased by 737,400 tons to 2.1975 million tons year - on - year [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 773.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 400,000 lots and an increase of 27,000 lots in positions. The market price of mainstream port spot varieties decreased. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased, and the iron - making output decreased by 5,900 tons to 2.4095 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1185.5 yuan/ton, up 34.5 yuan/ton or 3% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 21,901 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal varieties increased, and the downstream had rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton or 1.86% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 314 lots in positions. The spot price was stable. The profit margin of coking enterprises narrowed, and the supply decreased slightly [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price of manganese silicon futures showed a weakening trend. The mainstream steel procurement in October decreased slightly, and the first inquiry price was 5750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last month. The cost support weakened slightly [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price of ferrosilicon futures stopped falling and rebounded. An enterprise in Inner Mongolia reduced production, affecting the daily output by about 200 tons. The mainstream steel procurement quantity in October decreased by 195 tons [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 53.0, up 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil was - 14.0, down 3.0 [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of rebar 01 contract was 141.0, down 15.0; the basis of iron ore 01 contract was 52.2, up 6.3 [4]. - **Spot Price**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3190.0, unchanged; the spot price of PB powder was 778.0, up 3.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar futures profit was - 106.5, up 4.7; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 170.0, down 8.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][20][22]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][29][30][31][34][35]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties such as hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, coking coal and iron ore, coking coal and coke, and manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [40][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [45][49]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal [51]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [52].