1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, with demand support limited, and price drivers are weak. BZ2603 should follow styrene and oil prices in a volatile manner [1]. - Styrene supply is expected to increase, and demand support may be limited. Prices are expected to remain under pressure. EB11 should be treated as a short - term short opportunity on price rebounds, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread can be widened at low levels, but the driving force is limited [1]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - PX supply is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and prices are under pressure [6]. - PTA new device commissioning is postponed, and there is short - term support for the basis due to downstream restocking demand [7]. - MEG is expected to enter a inventory - building phase in the fourth quarter, with high supply in October [6]. - Short - fiber has a weak short - term supply - demand pattern, and prices fluctuate with limited up - and - down drivers [8]. - Bottle - chip may enter a downward phase in the fourth quarter, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - PE's current maintenance is at a high point, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. The 01 contract has high inventory pressure. PP has high production losses, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, the demand is lackluster [10][11]. Urea - The urea market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with high production, weak demand, and a downward - trending price [15]. Methanol - The core contradiction in the methanol market is the game between high current supply and the expected supply tightening due to potential Iranian gas restrictions. The near - term contract's downside is limited, and it is necessary to closely monitor Iranian device dynamics [17]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fell due to supply - side concerns. The market's view on supply has shifted, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range. Band - trading is recommended [20]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Caustic soda has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, there may be a change in the supply - demand pattern due to downstream capacity expansion [28]. - PVC's domestic demand is weak, but exports relieve some pressure. The price has limited downside during the peak season, and cost support is at the bottom [28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and most pure benzene and styrene - related prices and spreads also changed slightly [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of most pure benzene and styrene downstream products increased [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while styrene inventory increased [1]. - **Industry Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed to varying degrees, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - **PX**: PX basis, spreads, and processing fees changed, and the fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook is weak [4][6]. - **PTA**: PTA prices were stable, and processing fees decreased slightly. New device commissioning was postponed [5][7]. - **MEG**: MEG prices changed slightly, and it is expected to enter a inventory - building phase in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - term supply - demand is weak, and prices fluctuate [8]. - **Bottle - chip**: There is a potential new device commissioning in the fourth quarter, and demand support is insufficient [8]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP changed slightly, and spreads also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE and PP device start - up rates increased, and downstream weighted start - up rates also increased [10][11]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: Urea prices decreased slightly, and basis and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [15]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed slightly, and spreads and basis also changed [17]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [17]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream and downstream start - up rates of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [17]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined product prices decreased, and spreads and cracking spreads also changed [20]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - **Supply**: Caustic soda and PVC start - up rates and industry profits changed [24]. - **Demand**: Downstream start - up rates of caustic soda and PVC changed [25][26]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories changed [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: In Q3, influenced by coal production cuts, coking coal drove up the black - metal price center. However, steel prices were not strong due to weak demand. In August, domestic real - estate and infrastructure investment declined, and manufacturing investment growth weakened. Although coal supply interference persisted, steel and raw materials did not move in tandem, and Q4 had significant macro - policy disturbances. In September, steel apparent demand seasonally recovered, and high exports digested production, leading to inventory reduction. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with rebar between 3100 - 3350 yuan and hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options [1]. - Iron Ore: As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a downward - fluctuating trend. Supply - side: last week, global iron ore shipments decreased, and 45 - port arrivals increased. Future arrivals are expected to first rise and then fall. Demand - side: steel mill profit margins slightly declined, but molten iron production increased, and steel mills' restocking demand grew. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season, with raw materials stronger than finished products. Port inventories increased, and the dredging volume decreased, while steel mills' equity ore inventories rose. In the future, molten iron production will remain high in October, and low port inventories support iron ore prices, but beware of port inventory accumulation risks in Q4. Iron ore is in a balanced - to - tight situation, but weak finished products drag down raw materials. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a range of 750 - 830. Short the iron ore 2601 contract on rallies, and recommend the spread strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [4]. - Coke: As of the previous day's close, coke futures showed a weak downward trend, with a divergence between spot and futures prices. Mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and port trade quotes fluctuated with futures. On the spot side, after the second price cut by mainstream steel mills on September 15, prices rebounded on September 25. It is expected that the spot price of coke will gradually rebound, with 2 - 3 rounds of increases possible. On the supply side, rising coking coal prices led to some coke enterprises' losses and reduced production. On the demand side, steel mills continued to resume production, and molten iron production increased slightly. In terms of inventory, coking plants and ports reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The market is mainly trading pre - holiday restocking progress and future supply - demand changes. Due to rising coking coal costs and high molten iron production, the futures price has already priced in potential price increases. Speculate by shorting the coke 2601 contract on rallies, with a range of 1550 - 1750, and recommend the spread strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [6]. - Coking Coal: Yesterday, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with a divergence between spot and futures prices. Spot auction prices generally rose, and Mongolian coal quotes followed the futures up and then down. The domestic coking coal market is running strongly, with improved downstream procurement willingness and better market transactions. On the supply side, main - producing area coal mines continued to resume production this week, logistics improved, and coal mines sold at discounted prices. Imported Mongolian coal prices rose, and the border port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday. On the demand side, molten iron production continued to rise, and coking plant operations were stable, with increased downstream restocking demand. In terms of inventory, mines and ports reduced inventory, while ports, coal - washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills increased inventory. After significant restocking, downstream restocking demand will decline, and coking coal prices may peak and fall. Short the coking coal 2601 contract on rallies, with a range of 1150 - 1300, and recommend the spread strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan, and futures prices for 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 16, 17, and 17 yuan respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan, and futures prices for 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 22, 3, and 24 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Costs: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost increased by 1 yuan, and Jiangsu converter rebar cost decreased by 1 yuan [1]. - Profits: East China rebar profit increased by 1 yuan, North China rebar profit increased by 11 yuan, South China rebar profit increased by 11 yuan. East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 1 yuan, North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 1 yuan, and South China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 1 yuan [1]. Production - Daily average molten iron production increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. Five - major steel product output increased by 9.4 to 864.9, a 1.1% increase. Rebar output remained unchanged at 206.5, with electric - furnace output decreasing by 4.0 to 22.7 (- 15.0%) and converter output increasing by 4.0 to 183.7 (2.2%). Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.3 to 324.2, a - 0.7% decrease [1]. Inventory - Five - major steel product inventory decreased by 9.1 to 1510.6, a - 0.6% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 14.0 to 636.3, a - 2.1% decrease. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.5 to 380.5, a 0.7% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.4 to 11.0, a - 3.3% decrease. Five - major steel product apparent demand increased by 23.7 to 874.1, a 2.8% increase. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.4 to 220.4, a 5.0% increase. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.1 to 321.7, a 0.0% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: Costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines decreased by 4.4, 7.7, 5.4, and 8.6 respectively, with decreases of - 0.5%, - 0.9%, - 0.6%, and - 1.0% [4]. - 01 contract basis: The basis of Carajás fines increased by 1.6 to 56.7 (2.9%), while the basis of PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines decreased by 1.7, 2.6, and 2.6 respectively, with decreases of - 4.0%, - 1.2%, and - 4.9% [4]. - Spread: 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 19.5 (2.6%), 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 to - 41.0 (- 3.8%), and 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.0 to 21.5 (4.9%) [4]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals decreased by 314.5 to 2360.5, a - 11.8% decrease. Weekly global shipments increased by 150.6 to 3475.4, a 4.5% increase. Monthly national imports increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [4]. Demand - 247 steel mills' weekly average daily molten iron production increased by 1.4 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase. 45 - port weekly average daily dredging volume decreased by 2.8 to 336.4, a - 0.8% decrease. Monthly national pig iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a - 1.4% decrease. Monthly national crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a - 2.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - 45 - port weekly inventory increased by 69.3 to 14000.28, a 0.5% increase. 247 steel mills' weekly imported ore inventory increased by 427.0 to 9736.4, a 4.6% increase. 64 steel mills' weekly inventory available days increased by 2.0 to 24.0, a 9.1% increase [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained at 1200, and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained at 1613. Coke 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 46, with decreases of - 2.7% and - 2.5% respectively. 01 and 05 basis increased by 46 [6]. - J01 - J05 spread remained at - 143. Steel - union coking profit decreased by 11 to - 64 [6]. Supply - Full - sample coking plant average daily output decreased by 0.4 to 66.3, a - 0.6% decrease. 247 steel mills' average daily output increased by 1.3 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase [6]. Demand - 247 steel mills' molten iron output increased by 1.4 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase [6]. Inventory - Total coke inventory increased by 5.2 to 920.4, a 0.6% increase. Full - sample coking plant coke inventory decreased by 3.4 to 63.0, a - 5.1% decrease. 247 steel mills' coke inventory increased by 16.6 to 661.3, a 2.6% increase. Steel mills' available days increased by 0.2 to 11.7, a 2.1% increase. Port inventory decreased by 8.0 to 196.1, a - 3.9% decrease [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - Coke supply - demand gap decreased by 1.2 to - 4.6, a - 27.1% decrease [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained at 1270, and Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 to 1160, a - 0.4% decrease. Coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 43 and 42 respectively, with decreases of - 3.6% and - 3.3% respectively. 01 and 05 basis increased by 38 and 37 respectively. JM01 - JM05 spread decreased by 1 [6]. - Sample coal mine profit increased by 31 to 452, a 7.4% increase [6]. Supply - Fenwei sample coal mine raw coal output increased by 4.1 to 876.6, a 0.5% increase. Clean coal output increased by 1.4 to 452.0, a 0.3% increase [6]. Demand - Full - sample coking plant average daily output decreased by 0.4 to 66.3, a - 0.6% decrease. 247 steel mills' average daily output increased by 1.3 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase [6]. Inventory - Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 10.0 to 104.7, a - 8.7% decrease. Full - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 58.7 to 999.1, a 6.2% increase. 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory increased by 5.7 to 796.1, a 0.7% increase. Steel mills' available days increased by 0.2 to 12.9, a 1.2% increase. Port inventory decreased by 16.7 to 265.5, a - 5.9% decrease [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the market quickly digested the expectations and entered a volatile phase. The technology sector remains the dominant theme in the market. As the long holiday approaches, there are structural rotations in some sectors [3]. - The strength of the stock market has suppressed the performance of ultra - long bonds, which are significantly weaker. The T2512 contract has support around 107.4 [3]. - The US government shutdown crisis has continued to escalate, causing precious metals to maintain a strong upward trend. Silver is expected to reach a new historical high [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap in the steel market is narrowing, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The decline in shipments, increase in hot metal production, and replenishment demand support the high - level volatile operation of iron ore prices [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog Financial Sector - **Equity Index**: Driven by brokerage stocks, the equity index fluctuated upward. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on the MO2511 contract with a strike price around 6800 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the face of a strong stock market, ultra - long bonds are weak. It is recommended for investors to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to PMI data. Before the National Day holiday, consider buying straddle options to capture overseas market fluctuations, and later, buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The US government shutdown has boosted precious metals. Silver is expected to reach new highs, but the upward trend may moderate from October to November. It is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Container Freight (European Line)**: The EC market is weakly volatile. It is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts on dips [3]. Black Metals Sector - **Steel**: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory pressure is low. Sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. - **Iron Ore**: High - level volatile operation is expected. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 750 - 830), and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend, but futures prices have fallen from highs. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 1150 - 1300), and consider the arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coke producers are raising prices, but the upside may be limited. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 1550 - 1750), and consider the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [3]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Due to supply concerns from the Grasberg mine, copper prices remain high. Hold long positions and focus on the support level of 81000 - 81500 [3]. - **Alumina**: Weekly inventory accumulation continues, and cost support limits the downside. The main contract is expected to trade between 2850 - 3150 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's further production increase has raised market concerns, but geopolitical premiums provide some support. Oil prices are expected to trade within a range. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy and wait for opportunities to expand option spreads [3]. - **Urea**: High supply pressure persists, and demand support is weak before the holiday. The market center of gravity is shifting downwards. Go short at high levels, and consider narrowing option spreads after the implied volatility rises [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Grains and Oils**: Palm oil in Malaysia rebounded, and soybean oil followed the upward trend of the external market. The main palm oil contract is expected to trade between 9200 - 9300 in the short term [3]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be abundant. Trade short on rebounds [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton harvest, supply pressure is increasing. Hold short positions [3]. Special Commodities Sector - **Glass**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market has rebounded and then declined. Observe the market cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: The trading atmosphere is weak, and rubber prices are trending downwards. Wait and see [3]. New Energy Sector - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Wait and see for now [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the market has strengthened. The main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [3].

Report Summary Core Information - The report is a daily spread report for various futures contracts on September 30, 2025, covering black, non - ferrous, agricultural, energy chemical, and financial futures [1][2][3] Summary by Category Black Series - **Silicon Iron (SF511)**: Futures price is 5678, spot price is 5610, basis is 68, basis rate is 1.21%, and historical quantile is 90% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Futures price is 5950, spot price is 5820, basis is 130, basis rate is 2.23%, and historical quantile is 49.30% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Futures price is 3240, spot price is 3097, basis is 143, basis rate is 4.62%, and historical quantile is 61.90% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Futures price is 3289, spot price is 3350, basis is - 61, basis rate is - 1.85%, and historical quantile is 44.00% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Futures price is 837, spot price is 784, basis is 53, basis rate is 6.80%, and historical quantile is 44.70% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price is 1647, spot price is 1613, basis is - 34, basis rate is - 2.04%, and historical quantile is 44.16% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Futures price is 1160, spot price is 1154, basis is 6, basis rate is 0.52%, and historical quantile is 24.80% [1] Non - Ferrous Series - **Copper (CU2511)**: Futures price is 82370, spot price is 85510, basis is - 160, basis rate is - 0.19%, and historical quantile is 28.75% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: Futures price is 20690, spot price is 20730, basis is - 40, basis rate is - 0.19%, and historical quantile is 41.04% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Futures price is 2904, spot price is 2982, basis is 78, basis rate is 2.70%, and historical quantile is 49.55% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Futures price is 21560, spot price is 21800, basis is - 25, basis rate is - 1.0%, and historical quantile is 21.80% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: Futures price is 272410, spot price is 271400, basis is - 1010, basis rate is - 0.37%, and historical quantile is 20.83% [1] - **Nickel (NI2511)**: Futures price is 121100, spot price is 121200, basis is 100, basis rate is 0.08%, and historical quantile is 61.45% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: Futures price is 13220, spot price is 12760, basis is 460, basis rate is 3.61%, and historical quantile is 86.69% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Futures price is 73920, spot price is 73550, basis is - 370, basis rate is - 0.90%, and historical quantile is 49.11% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Futures price is 8610, spot price is 840, basis is 7770, basis rate is 9.76%, and historical quantile is 57.93% [1] Agricultural Series - **Soybean Meal (MSe01)**: Futures price is 2890, spot price is 2933, basis is - 43, basis rate is - 1.47%, and historical quantile is 29.90% [1] - **Soybean Oil (V2601)**: Futures price is 8150, spot price is 8300, basis is 150, basis rate is 1.84%, and historical quantile is 30.00% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Futures price is 9234, spot price is 9150, basis is - 84, basis rate is - 0.92%, and historical quantile is 6.00% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Futures price is 2416, spot price is 2530, basis is 114, basis rate is 4.72%, and historical quantile is 66.30% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ole01)**: Futures price is 10093, spot price is 10340, basis is 247, basis rate is 2.45%, and historical quantile is 75.90% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: Futures price is 2159, spot price is 2280, basis is 121, basis rate is 5.60%, and historical quantile is 92.40% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Futures price is 2483, spot price is 2550, basis is 67, basis rate is 2.70%, and historical quantile is 30.40% [1] - **Live Hogs (H251)**: Futures price is 12295, spot price is 12550, basis is 255, basis rate is 2.07%, and historical quantile is 48.00% [1] - **Eggs (JD251)**: Futures price is 3016, spot price is 3400, basis is 384, basis rate is 12.73%, and historical quantile is 60.80% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Futures price is 13350, spot price is 14942, basis is 1592, basis rate is 11.93%, and historical quantile is 7.50% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Futures price is 5479, spot price is 5890, basis is 411, basis rate is 7.39%, and historical quantile is 73.90% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Futures price is 8486, spot price is 8600, basis is 114, basis rate is 1.34%, and historical quantile is 25.80% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Futures price is 10915, spot price is 9500, basis is - 1415, basis rate is - 14.86%, and historical quantile is 33.60% [1] Energy and Chemical Series - **Para - Xylene (PX511)**: Futures price is 6686.1, spot price is 6670, basis is - 16.1, basis rate is - 0.24%, and historical quantile is 29.30% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Futures price is 4585, spot price is 4652, basis is 67, basis rate is 1.44%, and historical quantile is 28.60% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Futures price is 4295, spot price is 4224, basis is - 71, basis rate is - 1.68%, and historical quantile is 83.80% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: Futures price is 6435, spot price is 6336, basis is - 99, basis rate is - 1.56%, and historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - **Styrene (EB251)**: Futures price is 6915, spot price is 6932, basis is - 17, basis rate is - 0.25%, and historical quantile is 23.30% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Futures price is 2250, spot price is 2260.9, basis is - 10.9, basis rate is - 0.48%, and historical quantile is 11.40% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Futures price is 7175, spot price is 7184.9, basis is - 9.9, basis rate is - 0.14%, and historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Futures price is 6785, spot price is 6903, basis is 118, basis rate is 1.71%, and historical quantile is 4.10% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Futures price is 4896, spot price is 4730, basis is - 166, basis rate is - 3.39%, and historical quantile is 35.30% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Futures price is 2515, spot price is 2500, basis is - 15, basis rate is - 0.60%, and historical quantile is 45.80% [1] - **LPG (PG2511)**: Futures price is 4293, spot price is 4548, basis is 255, basis rate is 5.94%, and historical quantile is 47.30% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: Futures price is 3466, spot price is 3500, basis is 34, basis rate is 0.98%, and historical quantile is 60.00% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: Futures price is 11340, spot price is 11500, basis is 160, basis rate is 1.41%, and historical quantile is 45.10% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price is 1128, spot price is 1228, basis is 100, basis rate is 8.86%, and historical quantile is 33.54% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Futures price is 1188, spot price is 1278, basis is 90, basis rate is 7.53%, and historical quantile is 18.00% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Futures price is 15470, spot price is 14700, basis is - 770, basis rate is - 5.04%, and historical quantile is 14.00% [1] Financial Series - **Stock Index Futures** - **IF2512.CFF**: Futures price is 4604.6, spot price is 4620.1, basis is - 15.5, basis rate is - 0.34%, and historical quantile is 28.30% [1] - **IH2512.CHE**: Futures price is 2973, spot price is 2976, basis is 3, basis rate is 0.10%, and historical quantile is 73.80% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7232.2, spot price is 7350.6, basis is - 118.4, basis rate is - 1.61%, and historical quantile is 7.00% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7337.4, spot price is 7497.8, basis is - 160.4, basis rate is - 2.14%, and historical quantile is 7.00% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Futures price is 102.33, spot price is 102.34, basis is - 0.01, basis rate is - 0.01%, and historical quantile is 21.90% [1] - **5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Futures price is 105.51, spot price is 99.22, basis is - 0.01, basis rate is - 0.01%, and historical quantile is 25.40% [5] - **10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Futures price is 107.66, spot price is 105.87, basis is 0.21, basis rate is 0.19%, and historical quantile is 42.40% [5] - **30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Futures price is 113.79, spot price is 120.74, basis is 0.36, basis rate is 0.32%, and historical quantile is 51.20% [5]

1. Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains bearish, suggesting a short - selling strategy during rebounds. For glass, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short term, and policy implementation and downstream stocking behavior in the fourth quarter need to be monitored [1]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash prices in various regions remained stable, with some futures contracts showing declines. For example, glass 2505 dropped by 1.90% and soda ash 2509 fell by 0.87%. The basis of some contracts increased, like the 05 basis of glass rose by 17.11% and that of soda ash by 21.43% [1]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and the weekly output dropped by 2.02% to 74.57 million tons. The photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6158.30, soda ash factory inventory dropped by 2.33% to 175.56 million tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 million tons [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, and completion area decreased by 0.19% [1]. 2. Logs Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Logs are in a volatile pattern, with the market expected to oscillate within a narrow range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume during the peak season [3]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Log futures prices showed mixed trends, with the 2511 contract rising by 0.12% to 808.5 yuan/cubic meter. Some spot prices increased, such as the 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine in Shandong rising by 1.33% to 760 yuan/cubic meter [3]. - **Supply**: The monthly port shipment volume decreased by 3.87% to 166.6 million cubic meters, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% to 44 [3]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total national coniferous log inventory was 286 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.05% from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: The average daily log shipment volume increased by 10% to 6.56 million cubic meters as of September 26 [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Investment Rating No information provided. Core View In the short term, industrial silicon lacks upward driving force, and the price is likely to oscillate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and those in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Some industrial silicon spot prices declined, such as the East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon dropping by 0.53% to 9450 yuan/ton. Some basis and monthly spreads changed, like the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 66.67% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 million tons, the national operating rate rose by 6.20% to 55.87%, and the exports increased by 3.56% to 7.66 million tons [4]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 11.63% to 10.64 million tons, and the social inventory remained unchanged at 54.30 million tons [4]. 4. Polysilicon Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Before the National Day holiday, polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate within the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to national policies, enterprise production reduction, and downstream inventory digestion and order demand [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable, and the main futures contract dropped by 0.36% to 51280 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the current - first - month spread increasing by 1600.00% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 1.01% to 13.78 GW, and monthly polysilicon production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 10.78% to 22.60 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.79% to 16.23 GW [5]. 5. Natural Rubber Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Before the holiday, natural rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak season and the impact of La Nina [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Some natural rubber spot prices declined, such as the Yunnan state - owned standard rubber dropping by 0.68% to 14550 yuan/ton. Some basis and monthly spreads changed, like the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 600.00% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61% to 421.60 ten - tons, and China's production decreased by 1.30 to 101.30 ten - tons. The August domestic tire production increased by 9.10% to 10295.4 million pieces, and the export volume decreased by 5.46% to 6301.0 [6]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.01% to 456525, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3.62% to 42942 [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, and a short - selling strategy during rebounds is recommended. For glass, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants should be tracked [1]. Logs - The log market is in a volatile pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the improvement of shipment volume should be observed. Currently, the market lacks a strong upward driving force, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [3]. Industrial Silicon - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is shifting to a more relaxed state. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the price may fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [4]. Polysilicon - The supply - side regulation effect of polysilicon is not as expected, and the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. Before the National Day holiday, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, as well as the actual operation rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, should be followed [5]. Natural Rubber - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - short contradictions, and the trading atmosphere is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. The raw material output in the peak - production period of the main producing areas and the possible impact of La Nina should be monitored [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in different regions remained unchanged, while glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 declined. Soda ash prices in different regions were stable, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased slightly. The basis of some contracts increased [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased. Photovoltaic daily melting volume and the price of 3.2mm coated film remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [1]. Market Situation - The over - supply problem still exists. Although the factory inventory has decreased, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches. The weekly production remains high, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. For glass, the deep - processing orders are still weak [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Some log futures contracts fluctuated slightly, and the prices of some spot logs increased. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. Supply - The monthly port shipment volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased. The inventory in major ports decreased [3]. Demand - The average daily shipment volume increased [3]. Market Situation - The log market is in a volatile state, with low trading volume. The short - term upward driving force is lacking [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and the basis of some products increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - The production of industrial silicon, organic silicon DMC, and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon increased [4]. Inventory - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. The social inventory remained unchanged [4]. Market Situation - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is becoming more relaxed. The price may fluctuate in a certain range in the short term [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the basis of N - type materials increased [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main futures contract of polysilicon decreased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon increased. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed [5]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [5]. Market Situation - The over - capacity problem of polysilicon persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range before the holiday [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some natural rubber products decreased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [6]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of natural rubber contracts changed significantly [6]. Fundamental Data - The production of natural rubber in some countries in July changed. The tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber increased [6]. Inventory - The bonded area inventory and factory futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [6]. Market Situation - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market is in a volatile state. The supply may increase due to reduced rainfall in Southeast Asia, and the demand faces export and domestic sales pressure [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports Summary by Related Categories 1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **IM Spread Data**: IM's current - spot spread is -160.43, up 47.96 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 35.00% and an all - time quantile of 7.00%. Various IM inter - period spreads also show different values and changes [1] - **Other Index Spreads**: Spreads of IF, IH, IC, etc., including current - spot spreads and inter - period spreads, have their own values, changes, and quantiles. For example, IC's far - month to quarterly - month spread is -173.40, up 0.60 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 2.00% [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300, etc., have their latest values, changes, and quantiles. For instance, the CSI 500/SSE 50 ratio is 1.5910, down 0.0004 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 96.70% [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis Data**: TS basis is 1.4369, down 0.0131 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 18.30%. TF basis is 1.4331, down 0.0116 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 35.70%. T basis is 1.5973, up 0.2089 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 55.00% [5] - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL have their own values, changes, and quantiles. For example, TS's current - quarter to next - quarter spread is 0.0860, with no change from the previous day, and an all - time quantile of 43.30% [5] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., have their latest values, changes, and quantiles. For instance, TS - TF is -3.1590, up 0.0390 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 14.40% [5] 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 866.52 on September 29, up 10.46 from September 26, a 1.22% increase. AG2512 contract closed at 10939, up 307 from September 26, a 2.89% increase. Foreign COMEX gold and silver also showed price increases [7] - **Spot Prices**: London gold, London silver, and domestic gold and silver spot prices all increased. For example, London gold rose from 3758.78 on September 26 to 3832.94 on September 29, a 1.97% increase [7] - **Basis and Other Data**: Basis data such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., have their values, changes, and quantiles. Inventory and position data of precious metals also showed certain changes [7] 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates of MAERSK, CMA CGM, etc., showed different changes. For example, MAERSK's freight rate increased from 1613 on September 29 to 1645 on September 30, a 1.98% increase [8] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route), SCFIS (US - West route), and other indexes showed declines. For example, SCFIS (European route) decreased from 1254.92 on September 22 to 1120.49 on September 29, a 10.71% decrease [8] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602, EC2604, etc., all decreased. The basis of the main contract decreased from -228.6 to -332.2, a 45.34% change [8] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. Shanghai's port on - time rate decreased by 43.80%, while port calls increased by 10.97%. Overseas economic indicators such as the Eurozone's composite PMI and the US manufacturing PMI showed slight increases [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Report Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high due to upcoming restarts and new capacity, while demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red and some downstream plants plan to cut production. The price driver is weak, and BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate with styrene and oil prices [1]. - Styrene supply is expected to increase with new plant startups and restarts, but demand support may be limited as some downstream profits are under pressure and inventories are high. The price is expected to face pressure, and EB11 should be shorted on rebounds [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is expected to increase significantly in Q4, while demand is weak due to low PTA processing fees and potential PTA plant maintenance. PXN is expected to compress, and PX11 can be shorted or observed before the holiday [5]. - PTA supply is expected to contract due to low processing fees, postponed new plant startups, and potential maintenance. However, the rebound space is limited. TA can be shorted or observed before the holiday, and TA1 - 5 can be rolled in reverse [5]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to enter a destocking phase in Q4 as supply remains high and demand enters the off - season. It is recommended to observe before the holiday [5]. - Short - fiber support is strong in the short term but the rebound driver is limited during the holiday. It should follow raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to oscillate between 800 - 100 [5]. - Bottle - chip is likely to enter a seasonal destocking phase in Q4 as demand support is insufficient. PR should follow the cost end, and the processing fee can be shorted when it is high [5]. Polyolefin Industry - PE is at the peak of maintenance and production is gradually recovering. Inventory has decreased this week, but future supply and imports need attention. PP has seen an increase in unplanned maintenance due to losses, and inventory has decreased. However, there is significant inventory pressure after the holiday, and new capacity will limit the upside [10]. Urea Industry - Urea prices are oscillating downward due to a loose supply - demand pattern. Domestic production remains high, factory inventory is accumulating, and demand is weak. Export policies and Indian tenders have not yet boosted market confidence [18]. Methanol Industry - The core contradiction in the methanol market is the game between the current high supply pressure and the expected supply tightening due to potential gas restrictions in Iran. Supply pressure persists, but the expected supply cut in the future limits the downside of near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to Iranian plant dynamics in October [21]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices fell overnight due to expectations of increased supply, including potential OPEC+ production increases and the resumption of Iraqi Kurdish exports. The market focus has shifted from geopolitical risks to supply concerns, and prices are expected to move in a range. Band trading is recommended, and options can be considered after volatility increases [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic soda demand has short - term support, but the long - term outlook depends on downstream restocking. PVC supply is in excess, and demand is weak, but exports and cost support limit the downside. Attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand in Q4 [31]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude (Nov) decreased by $0.16 to $70.13/barrel, a 0.2% decline; WTI crude (Oct) decreased by $2.27 to $63.45/barrel, a 3.5% decline [1]. - CFR Japan naphtha decreased by $1 to $608/ton, a 0.2% decline; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene decreased by $5 to $810/ton, a 0.6% decline [1]. - CFR China pure benzene decreased by $1 to $724/ton, a 0.1% decline [1]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price decreased by $30 to $6910/ton, a 0.4% decline; EB futures 2510 decreased by $28 to $6878/ton, a 0.4% decline [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows - Phenol cash flow decreased by $28 to - $408/ton, a 7.4% decline; Caprolactam cash flow (single product) decreased by $40 to - $2010/ton, a 2.0% decline [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.10 million tons to 10.60 million tons, a 0.9% decline; Styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 1.10 million tons to 19.75 million tons, a 5.9% increase [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates - Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged at 79.0%; Domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.9% to 79.3% [1]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Brent crude (Nov) decreased by $2.16 to $67.97/barrel, a 3.1% decline; CFR Japan naphtha decreased by $1 to $607/ton, a 0.2% decline [5]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price increased by $45 to $6650/ton, a 0.7% increase; DTY150/48 price remained unchanged at $7840/ton [5]. PX - Related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX increased by $3 to $817/ton; PX spot price (RMB) decreased by $61 to $6694/ton [5]. PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - PTA East China spot price remained unchanged at $4590/ton; TA futures 2601 increased by $6 to $4652/ton [5]. MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Forecast - MEG port inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 40.9 million tons, a 12.4% decline; MEG arrival forecast increased by 7.3 million tons to 23.4 million tons [5]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes - Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.2% to 78.2%; China PX operating rate increased by 0.4% to 86.3% [5]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Closing Prices - L2601 closed at $7181, up $22 or 0.31%; PP2601 closed at $6903, up $10 or 0.15% [10]. Spot Prices - East China PP raffia spot price increased by $20 to $6750/ton; North China LLDPE film material spot price increased by $10 to $7100/ton [10]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.20 million tons to 45.8 million tons, a 6.53% decline; PP enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.0 million tons, a 5.50% decline [10]. Urea Industry Futures Closing Prices - 01 contract closed at $1664, down $5 or 0.30%; Methanol main contract closed at $2359, up $4 or 0.17% [13]. Spot Prices - Shandong (small particles) spot price remained unchanged at $1600/ton; Shanxi (small particles) spot price remained unchanged at $1490/ton [17]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production decreased by 0.10 million tons to 19.94 million tons, a 0.50% decline; Coal - based urea daily production decreased by 0.10 million tons to 15.75 million tons, a 0.63% decline [18]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at $2359, up $4 or 0.17%; Inner Mongolia North Line spot price increased by $5 to $2090/ton [21]. Methanol Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.05% to 31.994%; Methanol port inventory decreased by 6.56 million tons to 149.2 million tons [21]. Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.61% to 74.27%; Downstream - externally - sourced MTO plant operating rate increased by 7.38% to 82.46% [21]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent closed at $67.97/barrel, down $2.16 or 3.08%; WTI closed at $63.14/barrel, down $0.31 or 0.49% [26]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB decreased by 1.03 cents to 198.48 cents/gallon; NYM ULSD decreased by 1.60 cents to 234.06 cents/gallon [26]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - US gasoline crack spread decreased by $0.15 to $20.22/barrel; European gasoline crack spread increased by $0.21 to $18.86/barrel [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price remained unchanged at $2500/ton; East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by $10 to $4730/ton [31]. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits - FOB East China port remained unchanged at $400/ton; Export profit decreased by $58.7 to $164.7/ton [31]. PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits - CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged at $650/ton; Export profit increased by $22.4 to $72.6/ton [31]. Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits - PVC total operating rate increased by 0.7% to 76.1%; Externally - sourced calcium carbide - based PVC profit decreased by $90 to - $896/ton [31]. Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates - Alumina industry operating rate remained unchanged at 83.7%; Viscose staple fiber industry operating rate increased by 0.3% to 89.8% [31]. Demand: PVC Downstream Product Operating Rates - Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 1.3% to 39.1%; Longzhong sample profile operating rate decreased by 0.5% to 38.0% [31]. Chlor - Alkali Inventory: Social & Factory Inventories - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 19.7 million tons, a 14.2% increase; PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 1.2 million tons to 31.8 million tons [31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market was boosted by brokerage stocks, with the index fluctuating upwards. The bond market was cautious due to the strong stock market and concerns about the new regulations on fund sales fees. The precious metals market continued to rise strongly due to the ongoing fermentation of the US government shutdown crisis. The shipping index (European line) showed a weak and volatile trend, and it was recommended to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts. The copper price remained high due to supply concerns. The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, with a downward - pressured price. The aluminum market was supported by the peak - season effect and inventory inflection point, with the price expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The zinc market was expected to remain volatile under the background of supply and demand. The tin price rose significantly at night due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines. The nickel market was expected to maintain an interval shock. The stainless steel market was mainly in a short - term shock adjustment, and the lithium carbonate market was expected to fluctuate and sort out. The steel market's inventory pressure was not large, and the iron ore market was in a balanced and tight pattern but was dragged down by the weak finished products. The coking coal and coke markets were expected to fall after the peak due to the end of pre - holiday replenishment. The粕 market had supply pressure in the near - term, and the pig market was in a situation of loose supply and demand with a weak adjustment of the spot price before the National Day [2][5][8][12][13][19][22][25][32][36][39][42][46][49][51][56][63][64][67] Summary by Directory Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, A - share major indexes fluctuated upwards and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.74%. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3] - **News**: Domestically, the Politburo meeting studied the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the National Development and Reform Commission supported enterprises to participate in the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. Overseas, South Korea and the US reached an agreement on exchange - rate issues [3][4] - **Funding**: On September 29, the trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly, with a total turnover of 2.16 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted a net investment of 481 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Fed cut interest rates as expected, the market digested the expectation and turned to shock. It was recommended to lightly short the put option of MO2511 with an exercise price near 6800 to collect the premium [4] Treasury Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed lower across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.47%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [5] - **Funding**: The inter - bank market's capital was generally stable on Monday, but there were structural contradictions at the end of the quarter. The central bank's continuous net investment of reverse repurchase made the cross - quarter funds generally stable [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the strong stock market and concerns about the new regulations on fund sales fees, the bond market sentiment was cautious. It was recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to economic data [7] Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US government shutdown crisis continued to ferment, and the US and the Democratic Party had differences on the temporary spending bill. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced an emergency plan in case of a government shutdown [8] - **Market Performance**: Overnight, precious metals continued to rise strongly. The international gold price broke through the $3800 mark, and the international silver price also rose [10] - **Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the Fed's policy and political situation in Europe and the US would drive the price of precious metals to new highs. It was recommended to buy wide - straddle options before the National Day and buy out - of - the - money call options later. For silver, it was recommended to buy on dips [11] Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of September 30, the freight quotes for Shanghai - European basic ports of different shipping companies were provided. As of September 29, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined [12] - **Logic**: The futures market was weakly volatile. Only CMA announced the price for November, and it was recommended to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts [13] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 29, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper decreased. The trading was quiet [13] - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the "dot plot" predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year [14] - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident increased supply concerns. The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the domestic electrolytic copper production was expected to decline in September [16] - **Demand**: The operating rate of copper rod production increased. The demand in the fourth quarter might weaken marginally, but the overall demand was resilient [17] - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased, while COMEX copper and domestic social inventory increased [18] - **Logic**: The copper price was expected to benefit from potential interest rate cuts. The supply was expected to tighten in the fourth quarter, and the demand was resilient. It was recommended to hold long positions [19] Alumina - **Spot**: On September 29, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased. The supply pattern was gradually loosening, and the inventory continued to accumulate [19] - **Supply**: In August, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating capacity was expected to continue to increase slightly in September [20][21] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the total registered quantity of alumina warehouse receipts increased [21] - **Logic**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The price was expected to be under pressure, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton [22] Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium also decreased [23] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased [23] - **Demand**: The downstream industries were in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate generally increased [23] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged on September 29 [24] - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut brought uncertainty, but the domestic macro - environment was warm. The supply was high, the cost support was weakened, and the demand was in the peak season. The inventory inflection point appeared, and the price was expected to fluctuate between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [25] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On September 29, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [27] - **Supply**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate decreased. It was expected to increase slightly in September [27] - **Demand**: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, but it showed a marginal improvement in the transition period. It was expected to recover moderately in September [27] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the social inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly [28] - **Logic**: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fluctuated with the aluminum price. The supply was still tight, the cost support was significant, and the demand recovered moderately. The price was expected to remain high and volatile, and the main contract was expected to operate between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [29] Zinc - **Spot**: On September 29, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and some downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices [30] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore was loose, and the domestic zinc ingot production increased significantly since June. It was expected that the cumulative production from January to September would increase by more than 9% year - on - year [31] - **Demand**: The operating rate of primary processing industries was in line with the peak - season performance, but the overall demand was still weak [32] - **Inventory**: Both domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [32] - **Logic**: The supply was loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The zinc price was expected to remain volatile, and the main contract was expected to operate between 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [33] Tin - **Spot**: On September 29, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the trading was light [33] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased slightly, and the import volume from Myanmar increased. The tin ingot import volume decreased [34] - **Demand and Inventory**: In August, the operating rate of the solder industry increased, but the overall demand was still weak. The inventory decreased [35] - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. After Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, the tin price rose at night. The price was expected to operate between 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [36] Nickel - **Spot**: As of September 29, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel and imported nickel decreased [36] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic refined nickel production increased, and the monthly production was expected to increase slightly [37] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloy was stable, the demand for stainless steel was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the peak season but had limited sustainability [38] - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remained high, domestic social inventory was stable, and bonded area inventory decreased [38] - **Logic**: The nickel market was in an interval shock. The Fed's interest rate cut and Indonesian mining policies were factors to be concerned about. The price was expected to operate between 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton [39] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of September 29, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis decreased [40] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was firm, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of ferrochrome increased [40][42] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic stainless steel production increased, and the production in September was expected to continue to increase, mainly in the 300 - series [41] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [41] - **Logic**: The stainless steel market was in a short - term shock adjustment. The raw material price was firm, but the peak - season demand was not obvious. The main contract was expected to operate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [42] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of September 29, the average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased. The trading was light before the holiday [44] - **Supply**: In August, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the weekly production continued to increase slightly in the recent period, mainly from new projects and lithium spodumene processing [44] - **Demand**: The demand was robust and optimistic, and the orders in September and October were expected to increase [45] - **Inventory**: The whole - link inventory continued to decrease, with the upstream smelter reducing inventory and the downstream replenishing inventory [45] - **Logic**: The supply path was clear, and the demand in the peak season provided support. The price was expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main contract price was expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46] Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel decreased. The basis of rebar was 234 yuan, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was - 42 yuan [46] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel had support, and the profit decreased significantly from the high level. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [47] - **Supply**: From January to August, the iron element production increased by 2800 tons year - on - year, and it was expected to increase by 3700 tons in the first nine months. The rebar production decreased, and the hot - rolled coil production remained high [47][48] - **Demand**: From January to August, the apparent demand for five major steel products was basically flat year - on - year. The export increment was not expected to be large. The apparent demand in August - September decreased, and the inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased [48] - **Inventory**: Since August, the inventory has increased significantly. It was expected that the inventory center would continue to rise [48] - **View**: The steel price was expected to fluctuate within a range, with the rebar fluctuating between 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan [49] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of September 29, the price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [49] - **Futures**: The iron ore 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [49] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [49] - **Demand**: As of September 25, the daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, and the daily consumption of imported ore also increased [49] - **Supply**: Last week, the global iron ore shipment decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [50] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, the daily average port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [50] - **View**: The iron ore market was in a balanced and tight pattern but was dragged down by the weak finished products. It was recommended to short the iron ore 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 750 - 830 yuan [51] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened. The spot price of coking coal was strong, and the Mongolian coal price followed the futures to rise and then fall [52] - **Supply**: This week, the main - producing area coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian coal price increased. The port was closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday [56] - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to rise, and the coking plant's operation was stable, with the downstream replenishment demand increasing [56] - **Inventory**: The coal mine and port inventory decreased, while the port, coal - washing plant, coking plant, and steel mill inventory increased [55] - **View**: It was recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan [56] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged. The mainstream coking enterprises proposed a price increase, which was accepted by some steel mills and would be implemented on October 1 [58] - **Profit**: The average national profit per ton of coke was - 34 yuan/ton [59] - **Supply**: Due to the rise in coking coal prices, some coking enterprises suffered losses, and the operation rate decreased [63] - **Demand**: The steel mill continued to resume production, and the pig iron output continued to rise slightly [61] - **Inventory**: The coking plant and port inventory decreased, while the steel mill inventory increased [62] - **View**: It was recommended to short the coke 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 1550 - 1750 yuan [63] Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On September 29, the domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, and the vegetable meal price increased by 0 - 10 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of soybean meal increased, and the opening rate of oil mills decreased [64] - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean export sales and drought situation, Argentina's export tax policy, China's purchase of Argentine soybeans, and the EU's oilseed import situation were reported [64][65] - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the near - term price was under

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Soybean, Meal, and Related Products - Argentina restarted export taxes, but China has purchased multiple shipments of Argentine soybeans. US soybeans lack substantial positive factors, with high yields and limited Chinese demand, expected to fluctuate in a low - range. Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, with high soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories. The basis is difficult to improve under supply pressure. The increase in Argentine soybean purchases eases the year - end and Q1 2026 gap, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken [2]. Pork - The market supply rhythm is continuously recovering. Near the Double Festival, the demand for large - weight pig slaughter has increased, resulting in both supply and demand growth. Spot quotes are chaotic, and price drops have widened in some areas. In the medium term, demand is slowly recovering, but supply has clearly recovered, and demand is weak. Pay attention to the adjustment of retail farmers' pig weights after the National Day. The futures market is cautious about speculating on expectations, market confidence is weak, and long - term bullish funds have withdrawn. The market is expected to fluctuate sideways and follow the spot market with small fluctuations [4]. Edible Oils - For palm oil, due to the release of end - of - month fundamental data and concerns about year - end inventory growth, crude palm oil futures may fall below 4400 ringgit and continue to decline. There is a possibility of seeking support at 4200 ringgit after breaking through the annual support at 4350 ringgit. In the domestic market, there is a risk of domestic palm oil futures following the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil, especially a potential catch - up decline after the National Day holiday. For soybean oil, the concentrated harvest of US soybeans and weak exports may lead to a decline in CBOT soybeans, which will drag down CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the market is quiet. Factory soybean oil production may accumulate during the holiday, and although downstream replenishment after the holiday may ease inventory pressure, soybean oil inventory remains high, which may drag down the spot basis [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the Northeast, the supply of new - season corn is increasing, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year, with farmers being more willing to sell. Prices may rebound slightly in the short term but are expected to decline as the harvest progresses. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly meet their rigid needs and have seasonal replenishment needs. In the short term, the market supply is increasing, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level. Pay attention to the new - grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling attitudes [7]. Sugar - In the short term, raw sugar prices are dragged down by rapid Brazilian production and demand before the October contract expiration. There is an oversupply in the trade flow due to high sugar production and inventory during the Brazilian crushing peak. Pay attention to the pressure relief after the decrease in cane crushing volume, the reduction in sugar - making ratio, and the gradual end of the crushing season from September to October. Overall, there are limited positive factors for raw sugar, and it is expected to remain in a weak bottom - sideways pattern, with a reference range of 15 - 17 cents per pound. The new sugar - making season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and new sugar is expected to be on the market this week, putting pressure on the spot market. Domestic market trading sentiment is cautious, and after the Double Festival stocking, the overall trading atmosphere is light. The market is expected to remain weak [11]. Cotton - On the supply side, the willingness to scramble for seed cotton is weak, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price, so there is significant hedging pressure on cotton prices in the medium term. On the demand side, the downstream textile industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than the same period in previous years, providing limited support. Overall, domestic cotton prices may face pressure in the medium term [12]. Eggs - In recent days, traders' risk - aversion has increased, and their purchases in the origin have decreased. Weakening demand may drag down egg prices. Abundant egg supply will also have a negative impact on the egg market. After a slight decline in egg prices, traders may make small - batch replenishments, which may support egg prices. Egg prices are expected to remain sideways at the bottom in the short term but face pressure in the medium term [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean, Meal, and Related Products - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; M2601 futures price is 2933 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.14%. Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.40%; RM2601 futures price is 2416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.46%. Harbin soybean spot price is 3880 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean No. 1 main - contract futures price is 3938 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.08% [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of M2601 is 7 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 133.33%. The basis of RM2601 is 84 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 20%. The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 190 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 2.15%. The 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 19.23% [2]. Pork - **Futures Indicators**: The main - contract basis is 255, up 280 or 1120%. The price of Live Hogs 2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan or 2.23%. The price of Live Hogs 2601 is 12785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan or 2.40% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 12550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong is 12850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Sichuan is 12050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [4]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 169930, up 4751 or 2.88%. The weekly white - strip price is 0, down 19.8 or 100%. The weekly self - breeding profit is - 74 yuan/head, down 49.7 or 203.23% [4]. Edible Oils - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8400 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.83%; Y2601 futures price is 8150 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.15%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 9110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 1.30%; P2601 futures price is 9234 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.02% [6]. - **Spreads**: The basis of Y2601 is 250 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 18.83%. The basis of P2601 is - 124 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan or 1966.67%. The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil is 238 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.85% [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 is 2159 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.87%. The basis is 121 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 18.63%. The 11 - 3 spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 62.96% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 is 2483 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.12%. The basis is 17 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 3.75%. The 11 - 3 spread is 21 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 31.25% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of Sugar 2601 is 5479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%. The price of Sugar 2605 is 5437 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.09%. The 1 - 5 spread is 42 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 16.67% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price is 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) and Nanning sugar is - 1326 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 2.14% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales are 1000 million tons, up 114 million tons or 12.87% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of Cotton 2605 is 13540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.15%. The price of Cotton 2601 is 13555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.11%. The 5 - 1 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 175% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15024 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan or 0.31%. The difference between CC Index: 3128B and FC Index: M: 1% is 1726 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 7.5% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory is 117.59 million tons, down 30.58 million tons or 20.6%. Industrial inventory is 86.21 million tons, down 3.02 million tons or 3.4% [12]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of Egg 11 contract is 3016 yuan/500KG, down 20 yuan or 0.66%. The price of Egg 10 contract is 2918 yuan/500KG, down 22 yuan or 0.75%. The egg - producing area price is 3.44 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan or 2.76% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - to - feed ratio is 2.85, up 0.21 or 7.95%. The breeding profit is 3.20 yuan/feather, up 12.31 yuan or 135.13% [15].