锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年12月30日 厂 发期货 a 2 关注微信公众号 #NAME? | 产业链期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | Z0015979 | 2025年12月30日 | | | | 周敏波 | | | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | | | 前值 | 消失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 | | 22490 | 22020 | 470.0 | 2.13% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 | | - 200 | -190 | -10.0 | / | 7C/Itch | | 长江 铝A00 | | 22480 | 22020 | 460.0 | 2.09% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 | | -210 | -190 | -20.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 | | 2610 | 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are supported by production cuts and strong raw materials but lack upward momentum due to weak demand. The price range for rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils between 3150 - 3350. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and avoid going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the demand is limited. The price range is expected to be between 770 - 840. Short-term long positions can be attempted [4]. Coke Industry - Coke supply and demand have weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal prices are expected to decline. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon supply and demand contradictions still exist, and prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the rebar spot price in East China increased from 3290 to 3300 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost and profit of different steel products showed different trends. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coils decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, and the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.8%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.9%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 2.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.8%, the global shipping volume decreased by 3.6%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.5%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.1%, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased, and the coke futures prices also decreased. The coking profit decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, and the steel mills' willingness to suppress coke prices increased [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.4%, and the inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly, and the coking coal futures prices decreased [8]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal decreased slightly, and the coal mine inventory increased [8]. Demand - The pig iron output remained stable, the coking profit decreased, and the coking plant's production decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - The inventories of washing plants, coking enterprises, coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures increased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions remained stable, and the production profits remained unchanged [9]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese production increased slightly [9]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, the steel mill's procurement volume decreased slightly, and the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained stable [9]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by concerns over month - end inventory growth, Malaysian palm oil will continue to fluctuate in the short - term. In China, due to rising port inventories and the decline of Malaysian palm oil, Dalian palm oil futures face downward pressure [1]. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy for soybean oil remains uncertain, and the upcoming South American soybean harvest weighs on CBOT soybean oil. In China, factory inventories are decreasing, but demand is limited [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are falling, leading to increased reluctance to sell among traders. The sentiment is bullish, but over - optimism is not recommended. Spot prices are mainly for forward contracts, and the basis has increased [1]. Cotton - Internationally, ICE cotton futures are down due to year - end factors. US exports are up, but the shipment volume is limited. The quality of actual cotton bales is lower than the inspection report. In the short - term, US cotton will fluctuate. Domestically, the market lacks clear negative factors, and the long - term outlook is optimistic due to expected reduced planting in Xinjiang in 2026/27 [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are up, but further upside is limited. Brazil's influence on raw sugar is decreasing, and the focus is on the Northern Hemisphere. Indian exports are not attractive at current prices, and the raw sugar price is in a low - level consolidation phase. In China, the futures price increase has driven up the basis sugar price, and the market has good trading volume. Attention should be paid to Guangxi's production and actual demand [3]. Jujube - The raw material acquisition in Xinjiang is mostly completed. Processors are speeding up production, and the supply of sub - standard products has increased, with weak market demand. New jujube arrivals are late, and there are few new - season warehouse receipts. The futures price has rebounded slightly after over - falling. It is recommended to short on rebounds [4]. Apple - Affected by weak market conditions and reduced liquidity near the New Year's Day holiday, the futures price has declined. In the spot market, arrivals in sales areas have decreased, and the overall trading atmosphere is not strong. The market is in a game between the scarcity of delivery fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. If there is no significant improvement in consumption during the Spring Festival, prices may fall after the festival [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - The futures price increase has boosted farmers' confidence, and prices in northern ports and the Northeast are strong. In North China, farmers are selling at high prices, and prices are fluctuating slightly. On the demand side, northern port inventories are low, but deep - processing enterprises' profit margins are thin, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventories. The short - term price may rise, but the sustainability is limited [9]. Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillating pattern. South American high - yield expectations suppress the upside, but cost support limits the downside. In China, the spot market is loose. The cost of the 05 contract is under pressure, and soybean inventories are expected to decline. Meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and cautious operation is recommended [13]. Pig - Spot prices adjusted strongly over the weekend. Seasonal pickling demand is good, and farmers' reluctance to sell provides support. The slaughter period is extended this year, and the December slaughter pressure is not high. The futures market mainly focuses on the post - Spring Festival market, but there may be some early slaughter. Second - round fattening is expected to increase, and the futures price may be strong in the short - term [15]. Egg - In the short - term, the supply of newly - laid hens will remain low. The culling of laying hens may decrease this week as egg prices rise. Due to the New Year's Day holiday, market activity will weaken, and inventories may accumulate. Demand from institutions and food companies is limited. Egg prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillating pattern [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On December 29, compared with December 26, soybean oil futures prices were mostly stable, palm oil futures prices declined, and rapeseed oil futures prices increased slightly. Spot prices of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while rapeseed oil increased [1]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, and the basis of various oils also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory trends of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were different, with palm oil inventory increasing and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: Cotton 2605 and 2601 prices declined, ICE US cotton prices decreased slightly, and the 5 - 1 spread decreased significantly. The main contract's open interest decreased, while the number of warehouse receipts increased [2]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the CC Index increased, and the basis between spot and futures contracts also increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: Industrial inventory, imports, and other indicators showed different changes, and textile industry indicators such as inventory and exports also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2601 and 2605 prices declined, ICE raw sugar prices increased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [3]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis and import spreads also changed [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National and regional sugar production, sales, and inventory data showed different trends, and sugar imports decreased [3]. Jujube - **Futures Market**: Jujube 2601 price increased, 2605 and 2609 prices decreased, and the spreads between contracts changed. The open interest decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [4]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in Cangzhou decreased, and the basis between spot and futures decreased [4]. Apple - **Futures Market**: The main contract (Apple 2605) price decreased, the basis increased, and the spreads between different contracts decreased. The open interest decreased, and the national cold - storage inventory remained unchanged [5]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume in fruit wholesale markets decreased, and the spot market trading atmosphere was not strong [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: Corn 2603 price increased, port and spot prices increased, and the basis, spreads, and import profit also changed. The open interest increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [9]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2603 price increased, spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis, spreads, and profit indicators showed different changes. The open interest increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot prices were mostly stable, and futures prices decreased slightly [13]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis of various meals changed to different degrees [13]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends [13]. Pig - **Futures Market**: The main contract's basis increased significantly, and the prices of pig 2602 and 2603 increased. The 3 - 5 spread increased, the open interest decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [15]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in various regions increased, and the slaughter volume decreased slightly [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: Indicators such as piglet prices, sow prices, and breeding profits showed different changes [15]. Egg - **Futures Market**: Egg 01 and 02 contract prices decreased, and the 1 - 2 spread decreased [18]. - **Spot Market**: Egg产区 prices increased, and the basis increased significantly [18]. - **Industry Indicators**: Indicators such as egg - laying hen chick prices, culled hen prices, feed - egg ratio, and breeding profits showed different trends [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views on various futures contracts, with some expected to be volatile and strong (e.g., aluminum AL2602, methanol MA2605, and iron ore 12605), some for short - term long attempts (e.g., iron ore 12605), and others with different trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Selected Views - Aluminum AL2602, methanol MA2605, and iron ore 12605 are expected to be volatile and strong [3]. - Iron ore 12605 is suggested for short - term long attempts [3]. 2. All - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded. It is recommended to hold bull spread portfolios and sell near - month out - of - the - money call options. Before the holiday, there may be capital withdrawals, and short - term fluctuations are possible [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It is expected that the interest rate upper - limit will not deviate significantly from 1.85%. T2603 should pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8. It is suggested to avoid long - term bonds for now and wait and see for the short - term [3]. - **Precious Metals**: After the sharp rise, there was a significant correction. It is recommended to wait for the price to fall back and then allocate gold. For platinum and palladium, it is recommended to wait until the post - holiday trend stabilizes [3]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Index**: The EC2602 contract is expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - **Steel Products**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price of rebar RB2605 is expected to fluctuate between 3000 - 3200 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil is expected to fluctuate between 3200 - 3350 yuan [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking, and supply is in the off - season. Short - term trading within the range of 770 - 840 is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price has reached the peak and is falling back. It is recommended to short at high positions within the range of 1000 - 1200 [3]. - **Coke**: The fourth - round price cut has started. It is recommended to short at high positions within the range of 1650 - 1800 [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production cuts have eased the supply - demand contradiction, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom within the range of 5500 - 5700 [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is supported by manganese ore, and short - term trading is recommended. Try shorting when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: The speculative sentiment has cooled down. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high positions [3]. - Aluminum: The sentiment of non - ferrous metals is resonant. It is recommended to buy at low positions within the range of 21800 - 22800 [3]. - Zinc: The TC of zinc ore has stopped falling. It is recommended to continue holding the inter - market reverse arbitrage [3]. - Tin: It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Nickel: The price is falling. It is recommended to reduce long positions [3]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to reduce long positions [3]. - **New Energy**: - Industrial Silicon: The futures price is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 8800 [3]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: - PX: It is recommended to exit long positions, and short - term shorting is recommended for the aggressive. In the medium - term, low - buying is recommended [3]. - PTA: Similar to PX, it is recommended to exit long positions, and short - term shorting is recommended for the aggressive. In the medium - term, low - buying is recommended [3]. - Short - fiber: The trading strategy is the same as that of PTA [3]. - Bottle Chip: It is recommended to short the processing fee at high positions [3]. - Ethanol: It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 at high positions [3]. - Benzene: It is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5600 [3]. - Styrene: It is recommended to short at 6800 and short the processing fee at high positions [3]. - LLDPE: It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract [3]. - PP: Attention should be paid to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - Methanol: It is recommended to reduce the MTO of the 05 contract [3]. - Caustic Soda: It is recommended to short in the short - term [3]. - PVC: It is recommended to short in the short - term [3]. - Soda Ash: It is recommended to short on rebounds [3]. - Glass: It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Natural Rubber: It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is expected to fluctuate between 11200 - 12000 [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Meal: It is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Live Pigs: The market is expected to be stable and strong [3]. - Corn: It is expected to be volatile and strong [3]. - Oil: It is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 5300 [3]. - Cotton: It is expected to be volatile and strong [3]. - Eggs: It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. - Apples: It is recommended to exit long positions [3]. - Red Dates: It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options (CJ605 - C - 9700) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market situation is complex, with different sectors showing various trends. Some sectors are affected by strong macro - expectations and weak fundamental realities, such as aluminum. Others are influenced by supply - demand imbalances, policy changes, and external events [2][25]. - In general, many sectors are in a state of volatility, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors in each sector, such as inventory changes, downstream consumption, and policy adjustments [2][70][84]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - **Aluminum**: The market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract operating between 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton. Long positions can be arranged at low prices [2]. - **Methanol**: Due to device disruptions, the price has strengthened. The port may face inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. Pay attention to inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It will transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation. Pay attention to iron water trends, steel mill restocking rhythms, and negotiation situations [3][55]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market, and the macro and the futures market resonate. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures market is expected to oscillate strongly [4][72]. 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term negative factors are exhausted. It is recommended to continue holding bull spread combinations and sell a small amount of near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, it is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. After the New Year, pay attention to the capital situation. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The price dropped sharply after a high - level rise. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, the price has an upward space. Long positions can be arranged after the callback [13][14]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is in a consolidation stage, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to present an oscillatory pattern in the short term [16]. 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The short - term price may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [20]. - **Alumina**: The policy is difficult to reverse the short - term supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [22]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations. Long positions can be arranged at low prices [25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to continue high - level range oscillations. An arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and short AL03 can be considered [28]. - **Zinc**: The short - term price may oscillate. It is recommended to hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions [31]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be in high - level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. - **Nickel**: It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Pay attention to the possibility of a callback [39]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. Pay attention to nickel ore news and steel mill production reduction implementation [42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations before the New Year. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in high - level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production reduction and price adjustment acceptance [49]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in low - level oscillations. Pay attention to the implementation of production reduction [51]. 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: It continues to reduce production and inventory. The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [53]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to cautiously go long for short - term operations [55]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to short at high prices unilaterally and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and short coke [59]. - **Coke**: It is recommended to short the 2605 contract at high prices unilaterally and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and short coke [61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5500 - 5700. Pay attention to coal price changes [64]. - **Silicon Manganese**: It is expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [67]. 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic spot is loose. It is recommended to operate cautiously [70]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market. The short - term price is expected to be strong [72]. - **Corn**: The short - term price may rise due to the resonance of futures and cash, but the sustainability of the rise is limited. Pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and policy releases [75]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is in a low - level oscillating platform. The domestic market should pay attention to the actual demand after the spot price rises. It is recommended to maintain a rebound - shorting idea [76]. - **Cotton**: The short - term cotton price may oscillate steadily and strongly [78]. - **Egg**: It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern [81]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may oscillate weakly; soybean oil may oscillate in a narrow range; rapeseed oil may test the pressure level of 9200 yuan [84][85]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to short on rebounds [86]. - **Apple**: The short - term market is in a game between the scarcity of delivery fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. Pay attention to the actual inventory reduction progress [88]. 3.3.4 Energy Chemicals - **PX**: It is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions, short aggressively in the short term, and go long at low prices in the medium term [90]. - **PTA**: It is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions, short aggressively in the short term, and go long at low prices in the medium term [92]. - **Short - fiber**: It follows the raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to short when the processing fee is high [93]. - **Bottle Chips**: The short - term processing fee will be compressed. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy and short the processing fee at high prices [96]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price increase has resistance. It is recommended to conduct a reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 at high prices [97]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in low - level oscillations. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [98]. - **Styrene**: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short at 6800 and short the processing fee at high prices [100]. - **LLDPE**: It is recommended to go long the 2605 contract in the short term [101]. - **PP**: It is recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [102]. - **Methanol**: Pay attention to the reduction of MTO05 [103]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price may continue to decline. It is in a weak supply - demand pattern [104]. - **PVC**: It is expected to rebound and then weaken. The supply - demand is in an excess pattern [106]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [108]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see [109]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is recommended to hold short positions at 15700 [113]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in wide - range oscillations. It is expected to oscillate between 11200 - 12000 in the short term [115].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction still needs to be alleviated. Although the production cut expectation has been priced in, there is insufficient expectation for demand - side improvement in the future, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton in the short term [6][10]. - For silicomanganese, it is in a state where its own supply - demand is in a slight surplus, but the overall manganese element is in a balanced state. The manganese ore provides certain support for the silicomanganese price. There is no clear signal of a trend - based rebound yet, and the price is expected to remain weak in the future. Consider short - term operations such as shorting when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia [6][123]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Ferrosilicon 1. Valuation - This week, the main ferrosilicon contract increased by 0.96%, closing at 5672 yuan/ton. There were price increases in the main production areas and some trading areas [10]. 2. Supply - The national start - up rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 29.5%, a decrease of 0.8% from last week. The daily average output was 14,065 tons, a decrease of 1.30% from last week. The weekly supply was 98,500 tons. Production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly [10][37]. 3. Cost and Profit - The immediate production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5492 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5911 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 5593 yuan/ton. The immediate profit in Inner Mongolia was - 222 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 343 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Lanthanum Coke - The lanthanum coke market remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of 135 lanthanum coke enterprises was 44.81%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points. The daily average output was 167,600 tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons. The lanthanum coke inventory was 778,200 tons, an increase of 681,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 1,169,240,000 tons, a decrease of 676,000 tons [10]. 5. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 18,071 tons, a decrease of 0.34% from last week. In terms of non - steel demand, the price of magnesium metal was firm, and downstream replenishment increased at the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient [10]. 6. Inventory - As of December 25th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 63,610 tons, a decrease of 2.38% from last week [10]. II. Silicomanganese 1. Futures and Spot - This week, the main silicomanganese contract increased by 0.76%, closing at 5840 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and trading areas [123]. 2. Supply - The start - up rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 36.78%, an increase of 1.17% from last week. The daily average output was 27,510 tons, an increase of 620 tons. The weekly output was 192,570 tons, a 2.31% increase from last week [123]. 3. Cost and Profit - The cost in Inner Mongolia was 5780 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi was 6220 yuan/ton. The production profit in Inner Mongolia was - 210 yuan/ton [123]. 4. Manganese Ore Supply - The global shipping volume of South African manganese ore decreased by 20.31% week - on - week, Australian by 1.13%, and Gabonese by 49.89%, while Ghanaian increased by 100%. The arrival volume in China from different countries also had various changes [123]. 5. Manganese Ore Inventory - As of December 19th, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 4.533 million tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from last week [123]. 6. Demand - The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types was 112,653 tons, a 0.22% increase from last week. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons [123]. 7. Inventory - As of June 20th, the national inventory was 387,000 tons, an increase of 2500 tons from last week [123].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, silver prices soared due to factors such as US tariffs, the US debt crisis, and geopolitical conflicts. Despite significant price fluctuations, the "supply imbalance" problem persisted, and the price reached over $70 by the end of the year, with a cumulative increase of over 120% [1]. - The global silver supply-demand fundamentals have shown a deficit for five consecutive years. Although demand in multiple sectors has declined, the significant increase in silver - supported exchange - traded products (ETP) has tightened market liquidity. In 2026, high profits may drive mining companies to increase production [4][5]. - The operation of major silver mines in the Americas has a significant impact on the global silver market. The production of some mines is expected to increase, while others may face challenges such as resource depletion [9]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 2025 Silver Price Trend Review - In the first half of 2025, silver underperformed gold due to trade frictions and weak industrial product prices. In the second half, strong demand and stable supply led to a continuous decline in spot inventory, and silver prices outperformed gold [1]. - In early October, silver broke through the 2011 high, reaching $50 with a cumulative increase of nearly 90%. After a significant correction, prices rebounded in late November, surpassing the October high and reaching over $70, with a cumulative increase of over 120%. In December, silver prices continued to rise, with a monthly increase of over 30% [1]. Silver Overall Supply - Demand Situation - The global silver supply - demand situation has shown a deficit for five consecutive years, but the deficit has improved compared to previous years. Although demand in multiple sectors has declined, the significant increase in ETPs has tightened market liquidity. AI and new energy sectors have great potential for silver demand, making the supply even tighter [4][5]. - Metal Focus estimates that the global silver mine supply in 2025 will be approximately 31,788 tons, basically the same as in 2024 and at the upper - middle level in the past 10 years. The World Silver Association predicts that the average all - in sustaining cost (AISC) in the first half of 2025 will drop to $13.0 per ounce [5]. Analysis of the Supply Status of Major Silver Mining Enterprises in the Americas - In 2024, the silver production in the Americas accounted for over 50% of the global total. The top 20 global silver - producing enterprises are mainly large comprehensive or copper - gold mining companies, but silver production has a relatively limited marginal contribution to their cash flow [8]. - Five major silver mining companies in the Americas, including Fresnillo, Pan American Silver, Coeur Mining, Hecla Mining, and First Majestic, are expected to account for about 15% of the global silver mine supply in 2025. Their new and old mine exploration and production will affect the competition for key mineral resources [9]. - **Fresnillo**: The world's largest silver mining company, with expected production to decline by 13.8% to 48.5 million ounces in 2025. It may recover in 2026 but remain below 5 million ounces. Some mines face resource depletion risks, while the Juanicipio mine has great exploration potential [10]. - **Pan American Silver**: A Canadian mining company. In 2025, the expected silver production is 22.1 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of about 4.7%. In May 2025, it announced the acquisition of MAG Silver to obtain a 44% stake in the Juanicipio silver mine, which is expected to significantly increase production in the next two years [16]. - **Coeur Mining**: Based in the US, with an expected silver production of 18.45 million ounces in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 61.8%. The Rochester mine is the key growth project, and the Silvertip mine is the core reserve project for medium - to - long - term growth. The company expects production to reach 20 million ounces in 2026, a year - on - year increase of about 30% [18]. - **Hecla Mining**: The largest primary silver producer in the US and Canada. In 2025, the expected silver production is 17.2 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The Greens Creek and Lucky Friday mines contribute about 78% of the production. The company's production is expected to remain stable above 17 million ounces in the next two years [20]. - **First Majestic**: A Canadian company, one of the global silver mining leaders. In 2025, the expected silver production is 15.3 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 82.1%. The San Dimas mine is the main contributor to performance, and the acquisition of the Los Gatos mine shows strong production growth potential [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of global iron ore shipments decreased slightly this week but remained at a high level. The end - of - year rush by the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly but is at a high level in the same period of history. Based on the shipments, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. [2] - The daily average hot metal output remained flat compared with last week, at a historically low level. A small number of steel mills resumed production, while some were still under maintenance, mostly for annual overhauls. The profitability of steel mills has improved, but due to the off - season and a large number of overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production is expected to be limited. [2] - This week, iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, mainly Australian ore. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level and the low off - season port clearance volume at the end of the year, iron ore will continue to accumulate, but the subsequent marginal accumulation space will be smaller than before. [2] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is unlikely to lead to a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory on the downside. It is recommended to operate the 05 contract in a short - term range, with the range referring to 760 - 810. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The prices of various iron ore powders decreased compared with last week. For example, the price of Carajás fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 869 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 791 yuan/ton. The Platts Fe62% index decreased by 0.85 dollars/ton to 107.30 dollars/ton. [5] - **Variety Basis**: The report presents the 05 - contract basis data of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, Jinbuba fines, and Super Special fines over the years. [10][12][14] - **Spread between Varieties**: The report shows the spread data between different iron ore varieties such as PB fines - Jinbuba fines, PB fines - Super Special fines, and Carajás fines - PB fines over the years. [18][20][23] - **Spot and Forward Transactions**: The report provides the MA5 data of iron ore port spot transactions and forward transactions, as well as the import profit data of PB fines and Mac fines. [25][29][31] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The report shows the spread data between different contracts such as I01 - 05, I2205 - I2209, and I05 - 09 over the years. [33][34][39] - **Contract Positions**: The report presents the position data of the iron ore 09 - contract and 05 - contract over the years. [35][37] 3.2 Supply - **Global Shipments**: This week, the global iron ore shipments decreased by 128 tons to 3464.5 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 150.8 tons to 2814.7 tons. Among them, Australian shipments decreased by 102 tons to 1950.6 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 48.8 tons to 864.1 tons. [2] - **Four Major Mines' Shipments**: The shipments of the four major mines to China this week are as follows: Rio Tinto 601 tons (down 8 tons from last week), BHP 523 tons (up 51 tons from last week), Vale 615 tons (down 68 tons from last week), and FMG 276 tons (down 63 tons from last week). [50] - **Freight Rates**: The freight rates from Western Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao decreased compared with last week. For example, the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton to 8.9 dollars/ton. [58] - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume at 45 ports this week was 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons compared with last week. The arrival volume at 47 ports was 2790 tons, a decrease of 138 tons compared with last week. [2][65] - **Import Volume**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative national iron ore import volume was 114057 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1680 tons and a year - on - year increase rate of 1%. The import volume of Australian and Brazilian ore increased, while the import volume of non - mainstream ore decreased. [77] - **Domestic Iron Concentrate Production**: The iron concentrate production of 186 and 126 mining enterprises decreased compared with last week. For example, the iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises decreased by 1.4 tons to 43.4 tons. [87] 3.3 Demand - **Steel Mill Indicators**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 226.58 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons compared with last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points. The blast furnace start - up rate was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points. The profitability rate of steel mills was 37.23%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points. [2][101] - **Port Clearance and Consumption**: The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports and the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills are presented in the report. [110][111] - **Sintering Proportion**: The sintering ore charging ratio of 114 steel enterprises was 73.82%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points compared with last week. The charging ratios of lump ore and pellet ore decreased. [118] - **Global Steel Production**: The report shows the production data of global, Indian, Russian, American, Turkish, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean crude steel and the production data of global, Chinese, Indian, EU27, Japanese, and Russian pig iron over the years. [119][124][128] 3.4 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of December 25, the inventory at 45 ports was 15858.66 tons, an increase of 346.03 tons compared with last week. The report also shows the inventory data of 45 ports + 247 steel mills + berthing vessels, 45 - port inventory by cargo rights, 45 - port berthing days, and 47 - port inventory. [2][145][148] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of steel mills increased by 136.24 tons to 8860.19 tons. The report also shows the inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio data of 247 steel mills. [2][155] - **15 - Port Inventory by Variety**: The report presents the inventory data of 15 ports by variety. [156]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - From December 22 - 28, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 9, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%; the total arrival volume was about 309,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 215,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 41% [3] - With low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments, some spot prices in Jiangsu region were raised last week. The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but demand remains weak, and the overall upward adjustment space is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary by Category Futures and Spot Prices - On December 26, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends: log 2601 was 766.0, up 0.5 (0.07%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 776.5, down 1.5 (-0.19%); log 2605 was 787.0, up 1.5 (0.19%) [2] - The prices of various spot logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on December 26 compared with the previous day, and the outer - market quotes also remained stable [2] - The import theoretical cost on December 26 was 771.91 yuan, up 0.58 yuan from the previous day, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.002 yuan, up 0.01 yuan [2] Supply - In November, the port shipping volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, a decrease of 12.1 million cubic meters (-6.01%) from October [2] - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, a decrease of 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2] Inventory - As of December 19, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.6 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [3] - In different regions, the inventory in China decreased by 4.41%, in Shandong by 3.77%, and in Jiangsu by 9.85% [2][3] Demand - As of December 19, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 63,200 cubic meters, a decrease of 14,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [3] - In different regions, the daily average outbound volume in China decreased by 2%, in Shandong by 3%, and in Jiangsu increased by 1% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the current prices, price changes, and historical quantiles of various commodities across multiple sectors, including black, non - ferrous, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical, and financial sectors, on December 29, 2025 [1]. 3. Summary by Sector Black Sector - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: The price is 5672, down 44 or 0.78%, with a historical quantile of 50.60% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: The price is 5860, up 20 or 0.34%, with a historical quantile of 28.60% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: The price is 3290, up 172 or 5.52%, with a historical quantile of 67.60% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: The price is 3283, down 13 or 0.40%, with a historical quantile of 12.70% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: The price is 850, up 67 or 8.59%, with a historical quantile of 52.30% [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: The price is 1723, up 3 or 0.20%, with a historical quantile of 66.56% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: The price is 1156, up 41 or 3.63%, with a historical quantile of 37.00% [1]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper (CU2602)**: The spot price is 97740, the futures price is 98720, the basis is - 980 or - 0.9%, with a historical quantile of 3.33% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: The spot price is 22020, the futures price is 22405, the basis is - 382, with a historical quantile of 0.41% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: The spot price is 2708, the futures price is 2793, the basis is - 82 or - 3.06%, with a historical quantile of 12.77% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2602)**: The spot price is 23130, the futures price is 23170, the basis is - 40 or - 0.17%, with a historical quantile of 55.41% [1]. - **Tin (SN2602)**: The spot price is 334750, the futures price is 338550, the basis is - 3800 or - 1.11%, with a historical quantile of 4.37% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2602)**: The spot price is 126600, the futures price is 126750, the basis is - 150 or - 0.12%, with a historical quantile of 42.70% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2602)**: The spot price is 13220, the futures price is 12955, the basis is 265 or 2.05%, with a historical quantile of 49.14% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: The spot price is 111900, the futures price is 130520, the basis is - 18620 or - 14.27%, with a historical quantile of 0.88% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2602)**: The spot price is 9250, the futures price is 8880, the basis is 370 or 4.17%, with a historical quantile of 21.56% [1]. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold (AU2602)**: The spot price is 1016.3, the futures price is 1008.8, the basis is 7.5 or 0.74%, with a historical quantile of 0.30% [1]. - **Silver (AG2602)**: The spot price is 18469.0, the futures price is 18319.0, the basis is 150.0 or 0.82%, with a historical quantile of 99.50% [1]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: The spot price is 3050, the futures price is 2790.0, the basis is 260.0 or 9.32%, with a historical quantile of 66.30% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: The spot price is 8280, the futures price is 7836.0, the basis is 444.0 or 5.67%, with a historical quantile of 76.20% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: The spot price is 8560, the futures price is 8568.0, the basis is - 8.0 or - 0.09%, with a historical quantile of 24.30% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM2605)**: The spot price is 2570, the futures price is 2391.0, the basis is 179.0 or 7.49%, with a historical quantile of 81.10% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI2605)**: The spot price is 9690, the futures price is 9046.0, the basis is 644.0 or 7.12%, with a historical quantile of 93.60% [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: The spot price is 2300, the futures price is 2222.0, the basis is 78.0 or 3.51%, with a historical quantile of 80.70% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: The spot price is 2620, the futures price is 2514.0, the basis is 106.0 or 4.22%, with a historical quantile of 51.20% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2603)**: The spot price is 12050, the futures price is 11645.0, the basis is 405.0 or 3.48%, with a historical quantile of 57.90% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2602)**: The spot price is 2820, the futures price is 2957.0, the basis is - 137.0 or - 4.63%, with a historical quantile of 26.90% [1]. - **Cotton (CF2605)**: The spot price is 15118, the futures price is 14535.0, the basis is 583.0 or 4.01%, with a historical quantile of 19.60% [1]. - **Sugar (SR2605)**: The spot price is 5440, the futures price is 5285.0, the basis is 155.0 or 2.93%, with a historical quantile of 26.20% [1]. - **Apples (AP2605)**: The spot price is 9200, the futures price is 9247.0, the basis is - 47.0 or - 0.5%, with a historical quantile of 21.50% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ2605)**: The spot price is 8400, the futures price is 8980.0, the basis is - 580.0 or - 6.46%, with a historical quantile of 66.20% [1]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Para - Xylene (PX603)**: The spot price is 7424.0, the futures price is 7556.0, the basis is - 132.0 or - 1.75%, with a historical quantile of 7.00% [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: The spot price is 5280.0, the futures price is 5160.0, the basis is - 120.0 or - 2.27%, with a historical quantile of 13.80% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: The spot price is 3675.0, the futures price is 3846.0, the basis is - 171.0 or - 4.45%, with a historical quantile of 3.90% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2603)**: The spot price is 100.57, the futures price is 108.28, the basis is 0.00, with a historical quantile of 15.20% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: The spot price is 6570.0, the futures price is 6666.0, the basis is - 96.0 or - 1.44%, with a historical quantile of 20.50% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2602)**: The spot price is 6865.0, the futures price is 6787.0, the basis is 78.0 or 1.15%, with a historical quantile of 46.30% [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: The spot price is 2135.0, the futures price is 2161.0, the basis is - 26.0 or - 1.20%, with a historical quantile of 22.20% [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: The spot price is 1730.0, the futures price is 1735.0, the basis is - 5.0 or - 0.29%, with a historical quantile of 14.50% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The spot price is 6290.0, the futures price is 6465.0, the basis is - 175.0 or - 2.71%, with a historical quantile of 0.70% [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: The spot price is 4500.0, the futures price is 4832.0, the basis is - 332.0 or - 6.87%, with a historical quantile of 4.10% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: The spot price is 2219.0, the futures price is 2268.0, the basis is - 49.0 or - 2.1%, with a historical quantile of 35.00% [1]. - **LPG (PG2602)**: The spot price is 4528.0, the futures price is 4080.0, the basis is 448.0 or 10.98%, with a historical quantile of 63.90% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2602)**: The spot price is 2920.0, the futures price is 2995.0, the basis is - 75.0 or - 2.50%, with a historical quantile of 35.40% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2602)**: The spot price is 11100.0, the futures price is 11635.0, the basis is - 535.0 or - 4.60%, with a historical quantile of 2.50% [1]. - **Glass (FG2605)**: The spot price is 1057.0, the futures price is 920.0, the basis is 137.0 or 14.89%, with a historical quantile of 14.49% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA2605)**: The spot price is 1141.0, the futures price is 1200.0, the basis is - 59.0 or - 5.17%, with a historical quantile of 18.69% [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: The spot price is 6235.0, the futures price is 6292.0, the basis is - 57.0 or - 0.91%, with a historical quantile of 11.90% [1]. Financial Sector - **IF2603.CFF**: The spot price is 4657.2, the futures price is 4638.4, the basis is - 18.8 or - 0.41%, with a historical quantile of 25.00% [1]. - **IH2603.CFE**: The spot price is 3045.4, the futures price is 3051.4, the basis is 6.0 or 0.20%, with a historical quantile of 87.10% [1]. - **IC2603.CFE**: The spot price is 7458.8, the futures price is 7388.0, the basis is - 70.8 or - 0.95%, with a historical quantile of 9.10% [1]. - **IM2603.CFE**: The spot price is 7605.5, the futures price is 7472.4, the basis is 133.1 or 1.78%, with a historical quantile of 10.90% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: The spot price is 15780.0, the futures price is 15300.0, the basis is 480.0 or 3.14%, with a historical quantile of 65.91% [1]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2603)**: The spot price is 100.16, the futures price is 102.55, the basis is - 0.07 or - 0.07%, with a historical quantile of 10.30% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2603)**: The spot price is 99.74, the futures price is 106.03, the basis is - 0.06 or - 0.05%, with a historical quantile of 19.70% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2603)**: The spot price is 127.56, the futures price is 112.85, the basis is 0.46 or 0.41%, with a historical quantile of 68.50% [1].