| 硅铁(SF509) | 5508 | 5364 | 144 | 2.68% | 59.30% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 172 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5820 | 5648 | 54.30% | 3.05% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 68 | 3170 | 3072 | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3.19% | 48.00% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3250 | 49 | 3201 | 1.53% | 38.30% | | | | | | 779 | 47 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 733 | 6.39% | 38.80% | 1324 | 焦炭 (J2509) | -109 ...

| 业期现目报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0019938 | 王法特 | 2025年7月7日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田洞 | 7月4日 | 7月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 江苏一级 | 8190 | 8290 | -100 | -1.21% | 现价 | Y2509 | 7944 | 7994 | -0.63% | -20 | 期价 | | 296 | -16.89% | Y2509 | 246 | 星差 | -50 | 09+200 | 09 + 210 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | -10 | - | | 仓单 | 22977 | 22697 | 280 | 1.23% | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 7月4日 | 7月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 8560 | 广东24度 | 8510 | -20 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views Crude Oil - Oil prices are likely to loosen significantly but difficult to form a strong trend. Short - term can be treated with a bearish mindset, with WTI running in the range of [64, 67], Brent in [65, 69], and SC in [480, 520]. Pay attention to the opportunity of the monthly spread declining in the arbitrage end, and capture the opportunity of increased volatility in the options end [2]. Methanol - The inland market has limited short - term decline space supported by centralized maintenance in July. The port market faces dual pressures: the expected import in July reaches 1.2 million tons, and the planned maintenance of coastal MTO will weaken olefin demand, with the port expected to turn to slight inventory accumulation in July [5]. Urea - The short - term core driver comes from the emotional resonance of macro - policies and export expectations. The disk still has room to rise above 10,000 but is restricted by demand - side support [7][8]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - Both PP and PE show a supply contraction trend. The cost side has more valuation repair, and the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, but there is still an overall pressure. Short - term, pay attention to the support brought by de - stocking, and for PP, it is recommended to opportunistically arrange short positions when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [12]. Styrene - The supply of styrene is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening at the margin, and the port inventory is continuously increasing. The basis has dropped significantly. The short - term supply - demand expectation of styrene is weak, and the cost - side support is limited, so it is expected to gradually face pressure [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The short - term is under pressure, but considering the downstream PTA device production in August, the PXN downward space is limited, and the absolute price may fluctuate with oil prices, showing a short - term shock and a medium - term weakening trend [37]. - **PTA**: The short - term absolute price is under pressure, and it is recommended to be bearish when above 4800, conduct TA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and short the PTA processing fee at high levels [37]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand is gradually turning to looseness, and the price is under pressure in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure at 4400 for EG09 and conduct EG9 - 1 reverse arbitrage at high levels [37]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the absolute price fluctuates weakly with raw materials. It is recommended to operate in the 6350 - 6650 range for PF08 and expand the processing fee at low levels [37]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply has an improvement expectation, and the absolute price follows the cost side. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA, conduct PR8 - 9 positive arbitrage at low levels, and expand the processing fee at the lower edge of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 7, Brent was at $67.78/barrel, down $0.52 or - 0.76% from July 3; WTI was at $65.98/barrel, down $1.02 or - 1.52%. The spreads such as Brent - WTI remained unchanged at 0.00%, while many monthly spreads and other spreads showed declines [2]. - **Driving Factors**: Supply expansion suppresses market sentiment, and the weakening of macro and geopolitical risk premiums reduces the disturbance to the market. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the actual increase from April - July is lower than the target. Demand - side inventory has increased, and the macro - situation has relatively eased [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 7, MA2601 closed at 2437, down 0.53% from July 3; MA2509 closed at 2399, down 0.62%. The MA91 spread decreased by 2 to - 38, with a change of 5.56% [5]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.14% to 35.228%, port inventory increased by 0.47% to 67.4 million tons, and social inventory increased by 1.37% to 102.6 [5]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 3.19% to 75.61%, and some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde decreased, while some such as MTBE increased [5]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, the 01 - contract closed at 1702, up 0.18% from July 3; the 09 - contract closed at 1735, down 0.12%. The UR - MA main - contract spread was - 664, up 13 from July 3 [7]. - **Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 66 to 125,746, with a change of 0.05%, and the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 6830 to 135,833, with a change of - 4.79% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.03% to 19.68 million tons, and the factory - inventory decreased by 7.06% to 101.85 million tons on a weekly basis [7]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, L2601 closed at 7243, down 0.26% from July 3; L2509 closed at 7282, down 0.03%. The L2509 - 2601 spread increased by 17 to 39, with a change of 77.27% [12]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.19% to 43.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.55% to 57.0 million tons [12]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 3.95% to 79.5%, and PP device operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 79.3% [12]. Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, styrene East - China spot price was 7650, up 1.1% from July 3; EB futures 2508 closed at 7297, up 0.5%. The EB basis (08) increased by 45 to 353, with a change of 14.6% [31]. - **Inventory**: The East - China port inventory of styrene increased by 7.6% to 9.63 million tons from June 25 to July 2 [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The styrene operating rate increased by 0.8% to 74.5% from June 27 to July 4, while some downstream operating rates such as PS + EPS decreased [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, PTA East - China spot price was 4835, down 1.1% from July 3; TA futures 2509 closed at 4710, down 0.8%. The PX - naphtha spread decreased by 11 to 261, with a change of - 4.0% [37]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased by 12.4% to 54.5 million tons from June 23 to June 30 [37]. - **Operating Rates**: The PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 77.7% from June 27 to July 4, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 66.5% [37].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may experience volatile adjustments, with the main contract referring to the range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton. The core drivers of price increase, such as interest - rate cut expectations and the 232 investigation, are showing signs of weakening, and concerns about tariff policies are also pressuring copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 20,800 yuan/ton resistance level [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The market for aluminum alloy is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract referring to the range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and demand is the main constraining factor [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment provides support, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly [9]. Tin - Short - term tin prices are expected to be strong and volatile, but considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - selling strategy on rallies based on supply - side recovery, inventory, and import data inflection points is recommended [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Although the macro environment has improved trading sentiment, the fundamentals still face pressure [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. First, observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton. The short - term fundamentals still face pressure, and there is a contradiction between market sentiment and fundamentals [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 445 yuan/ton to 80,535 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.55%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium remained unchanged at 115 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread between 2507 and 2508 contracts increased by 40 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34 million tons or 0.30%. In May, electrolytic copper imports were 253,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons or 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 20,770 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.43%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons or 0.19%. In June, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons or 3.22% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 606,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.66%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.38% [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,410 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.09%. The premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,700 tons or 6.50%. In May, refined zinc imports were 26,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons or 5.36% [7]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 123,450 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.73%. The price of 1 Sichuan nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton to 124,550 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.65% [9]. Fundamental Data - The production and import volume of refined nickel were both 0, and the month - on - month change was DIV/0! [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 267,300 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.45%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,588 tons or 36.39%. SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 360 tons or 2.37% [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,750 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.39%. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,650 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In April (43 companies), the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,300 tons or 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, with no change [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 62,300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.32%. SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 60,700 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.33% [16]. Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,010 tons or 8.34%. The demand for lithium carbonate in June was 93,815 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145 tons or 0.15% [16].

1. Natural Rubber Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 1.2 Core View Short - term macro - warming and state reserve purchase news boost rubber prices, but under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro events [2]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 4th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 110, with a growth rate of 169.23%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36% [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at - 865 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 14.29%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.07% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a growth rate of 157.52%; Indonesia's production increased by 6,200 tons to 200,300 tons, a growth rate of 3.19%; India's production increased by 2,300 tons to 47,700 tons, a growth rate of 5.07%; China's production increased by 38,900 tons to 97,000 tons. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 7.64 percentage points to 70.41%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 1.89 percentage points to 63.75%. In May, domestic tire production decreased slightly, while tire exports increased by 7.72%. The total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 13.35% [2]. 2. Log Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2.2 Core View From a fundamental perspective, the demand for logs enters the off - season during the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the shipment volume from New Zealand is expected to decrease seasonally. The market is gradually entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but recent positive news has boosted market sentiment [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 4th, the 2509 log contract closed at 795 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The prices of major deliverable spot products remained unchanged. The price of medium - sized A - grade radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter [5]. - **Supply**: In May, the port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 13.20%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a decline of 7.94% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of June 27th, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.36 million cubic meters, a slight increase from the previous week. The daily average log shipment volume was 65,700 cubic meters, an increase of 21,000 cubic meters from the previous week [5]. 3. Glass and Soda Ash Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 3.2 Core View For soda ash, although the recent policy has boosted the market sentiment, the supply - demand pattern is still in excess. In the long - term, there will be a further profit - reduction process. For glass, the market sentiment has improved recently, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to reverse the situation. In the short term, both are affected by market sentiment, with large price fluctuations [6]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.34%, while the 2509 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.25% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.08%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.73% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 1.08 percentage points to 82.21%, and the weekly production decreased by 0.8 tons to 709,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 0.1 tons to 15,780 tons, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 4,020 tons to 94,390 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased slightly, while the soda ash factory inventory increased by 5 tons to 278,000 tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 5 tons to 228,000 tons [6]. 4. Industrial Silicon Industry 4.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 4.2 Core View In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly due to production cuts. In the long term, the increase in production after resumption will intensify the pressure of oversupply. Attention should be paid to the production - cut plans of polysilicon and the impact of coking coal prices. In the context of anti - involution policies, the arbitrage strategy of buying polysilicon and short - selling industrial silicon is favorable [8]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 4th, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.57% from the previous day. The basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increased by 80 yuan, a growth rate of 11.59% [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.75%; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton; the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 25% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a growth rate of 6.5%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 25,300 tons to 209,300 tons, a growth rate of 13.75% [8]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 22,800 tons to 150,100 tons, a decline of 13.19%. The social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 552,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.85% [8]. 5. Polysilicon Industry 5.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 5.2 Core View In the short term, the polysilicon futures market fluctuates greatly under the background of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply increases while the demand decreases, and the price is still under pressure. However, policy expectations have a great impact on the market, and prices are expected to rise in the long term. Attention should be paid to risk management [9]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 48.42%; the basis of cauliflower - like material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.13% [9]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract increased by 460 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.31%. The spreads between different contracts showed different degrees of change [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers decreased by 15,400 GW to 11,900 GW, a decline of 11.46%. The weekly production of polysilicon increased by 400 tons to 24,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.69%. In June, the production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1% [9]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 200 tons to 27,200 tons, a growth rate of 0.74%. The silicon wafer inventory decreased by 890 GW to 19,220 GW, a decline of 4.43% [9].

广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2509 | 总持仓明显上升 | 国君多空头加仓超 5000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2509 | 总持仓明显上升 | 前二十席位以加仓为主 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2507 | 总持仓明显上升 | 前二十席位以加仓为主 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2509 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信国君多空头加仓超 6000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 14,488.0 9,229.0 6,820.0 16,019.0 27,059.0 17,098.0 16,077.0 29,436.0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月4日 | 全历史分位数 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | 5.00% | F期现价差 | -50.07 | 9.00% | -0.58 | -22.75 | H期间价差 | 3.00 | 11.40% | 5.70% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 20.00% | -48.66 | -12.31 | 20.40% | IM期现价差 | -14.35 | -206.84 | 25.00% | 1.90% | 次月-当月 | -18.60 | -0.80 | 20.40% | 24.30% | | | 學月-当月 | -28.60 | ...

The Investment Rating of the Reported Industries The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industries. The Core Views of the Report Nickel - The macro - atmosphere boosts the commodity, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel weakens, and the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The short - term nickel price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - Under the current macro - boost, the trading sentiment improves, but the fundamentals still face pressure. The price negotiation range of nickel - iron moves down, the cost support weakens, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are under pressure. The recent supply - demand surplus may intensify. Although the macro - atmosphere is strong, the high inventory restricts the price upside. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, and it is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macro factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and the tight supply in non - US regions support the copper price. The short - term price is strong, with the main contract reference range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is loose, but the demand is weakening. The inventory is at a low level, providing price support. The short - term price rebounds, but the fundamentals remain unchanged. The medium - long - term strategy is to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. The price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is supported by the macro - environment and low inventory but restricted by the off - season. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [19]. Tin - The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound and strong, and the strategy is to short on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [20]. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various nickel products show different trends, such as the 0.41% increase in SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price and the 4.16% decrease in the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [1]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while imports increased by 116.90%. The inventories of SHFE, social, and LME all decreased to varying degrees [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 20.00% [3]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month, imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.73%, and the basis increased by 64.71% [5]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% month - on - month, while demand decreased by 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% [5]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.01%, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper decreased by 17.50% [7]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. The inventories of SHFE and domestic social increased, while the inventory of domestic mainstream ports decreased [7]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.63%, and the import loss increased [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% month - on - month, and the inventories of China's seven - region social zinc ingot increased by 3.65% week - on - week [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [15]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66%, and the social inventory increased by 12.62% week - on - week [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.24%, and the import loss decreased [19]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, alumina production decreased by 0.19%, and the social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.38% week - on - week [19]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged, and the import loss increased by 15.01% [20]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39%, and the social inventory increased by 2.84% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It details the changes in total positions, positions of the main contracts, and the significant changes in the top 20 seats for each type of futures [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 3, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 481 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 663 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,227 lots. Haitong Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 361 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,216 lots [6]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 44,160 lots. Haitong Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 421 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,246 lots [8]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 3, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 1,877 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 921 lots [11]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 9,076 lots. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 146 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 730 lots [12]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 10,715 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 289 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 674 lots [13]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 3, the total position of the IC variety increased by 1,566 lots, and the position of the main contract 2507 decreased by 153 lots [17]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 33,786 lots. Haitong Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 572 lots, while Huatai Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,010 lots [18]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 39,153 lots. Haitong Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 403 lots, while Dongzheng Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 251 lots [19]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 3, the total position of the IM variety increased by 2,566 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 2,343 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,357 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 870 lots, while Guoxin Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 397 lots [24]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 57,260 lots. Haitong Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 817 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,067 lots [26].

欢迎关注微信公众号 - FEHISTED 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月4日 | 板块 品种 | | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2509 | | 宏观形势好转带动风险偏好上行,指数已经突破短 | | 股指 | | 6095ZHII | 避险板块坚挺,股指整体向下调整 | 期震荡区间上沿,中枢上移过程中,警惕追高风 | | | | IC2507 | | 险,可轻仓卖出8-9月5900执行价MO期权收取权 | | | | IM2509 | | 利金。 | | | | 12509 | | 单边策略上短期建议逢调整适当配置多单,接近前 | | 国债 | | TF2509 6095ZS1 | 月初资金利率继续回落,期债情绪偏强,不过行情暂时缺乏突 破前局动力 | 高注意止盈,关注经济数据与资金面动向。适当关 注做陡曲线。 | | 金融 | | 6095711 | | | | | | AU2508 | 美国非农数据再超预期打压美联储降息可能性 美财税法案通过 | 短期关注美国通胀等数据,金价维持 ...