| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年7月4日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月3日 | 7月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13950 | 14000 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -65 | -125 | 60 | 48.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13900 | 13950 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 非标价差 | -115 | -175 | 60 | 34.29% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 48.55 | 48.20 | 0.35 | 0.73% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.50 | 55.00 | -0.50 | -0.91% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块 ...

- FE HETER | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 60955-11 6095HI | | 宏观形势好转带动风险偏好上行,指数已经突破短 期震荡区间上沿,中枢上移过程中,警惕追高风 | | | 股指 | IC2507 | 避险板块坚挺,股指整体向下调整 | 险,可轻仓卖出8-9月5900执行价MO期权收取权 | | | | IM2509 | | 利金。 | | | | T2509 | | 单边策略上短期建议逢调整适当配置多单,接近前 | | | 国债 | TF2509 | 月初资金面延续转松,期债情绪偏强,不过行情暂时缺乏突破 | 高注意止盈,关注经济数据与资金面动向。适当关 | | 金融 | | 609551 | 前局动力 | 注做陡曲线。 | | | | | | 关注美国非农数据若不及预期或进一步提振美联储 | | | 贵金属 | AU2508 | 静待美国非农数据公布 市场博弈美联储提早降息 贵金属持续走 | 宽松转向可能,黄金有望回到3400美元上方;白 | | | | AG2508 | 量 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term copper prices are expected to be strong. The core drivers are the ongoing "232" investigation in the US and unresolved LME warehouse receipt issues, which provide strong support for copper prices. Before the "232" investigation is concluded, the tight copper supply pattern in non - US regions is difficult to reverse. The reference price range for the main contract is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is in a state of slight surplus due to high - capacity operation. The reference price range for the main contract is 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels in the short term. Although macro factors and low inventory support the price, consumption in the off - season restricts its upward space. The reference price range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to show weak oscillations. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight in the short term, and the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season. The reference price range for the main contract is 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices rebounded in the short term driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts and a weak US dollar. However, the fundamentals have not fundamentally improved. In the medium - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. The reference price range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to adjust within a range in the short term. Although macro policies boost market sentiment, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the cost support for refined nickel has weakened. The reference price range for the main contract is 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term under macro support. The fundamentals still face pressure, with high production, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction. The reference price range for the main contract is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to slow supply - side recovery. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - selling strategy on rallies based on inventory and import data is recommended [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. The market is in a state of contradiction between sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure is obvious, and the price is restricted from rising. It is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton and pay attention to changes in macro expectations [17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.98% to 80,990 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.18% to 2,403 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 356.71 yuan/ton to - 1,128 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%; in May, electrolytic copper imports were 0.2531 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 19.11% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 0.69% day - on - day [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.14% to 20,810 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. - The 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 215 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.86% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 2.29% day - on - day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. - The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0, a month - on - month decrease of 100%; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.0261 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38%. - The regenerated aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 6.74% week - on - week [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.04% to 22,290 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 262.82 yuan/ton to - 911 yuan/ton. - The 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%; in May, refined zinc imports were 0.0267 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36%. - China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 3.60% week - on - week, and LME inventory decreased by 1.28% day - on - day [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.49% to 122,050 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 1 dollar/ton to - 194 dollars/ton; the futures import profit and loss improved by 142 yuan/ton to - 2,419 yuan/ton [10]. Supply and Inventory - In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%; refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 0.11% day - on - day [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference decreased by 23.08% to 200 yuan/ton. - The 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production remained unchanged at 0.36 million tons. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.28% week - on - week, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.05% day - on - day [12]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.75% to 268,500 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 138.42% to - 48.99 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%. - SHEF inventory decreased by 0.14% week - on - week, and social inventory increased by 2.84% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.57% to 61,650 yuan/ton; the 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 160 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton. - The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1.12% to 632 dollars/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 57,630 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.74%. - In May, lithium carbonate imports were 21,146 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.37%; lithium carbonate exports were 287 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60.95%. - Lithium carbonate total inventory increased by 2.27% month - on - month in June [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - For palm oil, there is potential for the crude palm oil futures to break through previous highs, but beware of the risk of price pull - back around the MPOB report. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise in the short - term. For soybean oil, the US Senate's fiscal expenditure bill may boost consumption and support prices in the long - term, while the domestic soybean oil basis decline is limited due to import cost support [1]. Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a small rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height. The domestic market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term, but a bearish view is held after the rebound considering future imports [3]. Eggs - The national egg supply is sufficient, demand is general, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly in the short - term, and remain stable later [7]. Cotton - The short - term supply shortage of old - crop cotton is difficult to resolve, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, so cotton prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [10]. Meal - US soybeans are rebounding, and Brazilian soybean prices are rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and the basis is stable. The soybean meal market is currently bottom - grinding, and attention should be paid to the 2950 support level [12]. Corn - The spot price of corn is firm, but the futures price has declined due to import auctions. In the medium - term, the supply shortage and increasing consumption may support price increases. Short - term operations are recommended [14]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly. The market sentiment may be bullish in the short - term, but there is pressure on the 09 contract above 14,500 [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, soybean oil spot price was 8260, futures price (Y2509) was 8018; palm oil spot price (Guangdong 24 - degree) was 8460, futures price (P2509) was 8440; rapeseed oil spot price (Jiangsu fourth - grade) was 9730, futures price (OI509) was 9618 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of soybean oil (Y2509) was 242, down 26; the basis of palm oil (P2509) was 20, down 74; the basis of rapeseed oil (OI509) was 111, down 42. The soybean oil 09 - 01 spread was 44, up 2; the palm oil 09 - 01 spread was - 10, up 14; the rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread was 32.65% [1]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of sugar 2601 was 5580, down 16; the price of sugar 2509 was 5766, down 9. The spot price in Nanning was 6070, down 20 [3]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.10 million tons [3]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of the egg 09 contract was 3678, down 6; the price of the egg 08 contract was 3544, down 24. The egg产区 price was 2.60, unchanged [7]. - **Industry Data**: The price of day - old chicks was 4.00, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 4.62, up 0.18; the egg - feed ratio was 2.24, down 0.09; the breeding profit was - 33.26, down 5.38 [7]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of cotton 2509 was 13805, up 60; the price of cotton 2601 was 13820, up 65. The ICE US cotton主力 price was 67.96, down 0.08 [10]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory was 312.69 million tons, down 33.18 million tons; the industrial inventory was 93.01 million tons, down 1.10 million tons [10]. Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of soybean meal (Jiangsu) was 2840, unchanged; the price of soybean meal futures (M2509) was 2944, down 17. The price of rapeseed meal (Jiangsu) was 2470, down 20; the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2509) was 2578, down 8 [12]. - **Industry Data**: The Brazilian 8 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was - 16, down 14.4%; the Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 107, unchanged [12]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of corn 2509 was 2363, down 20; the price of corn starch 2509 was 2731, down 12 [14]. - **Industry Data**: The import profit of corn was 579, down 1; the import profit of corn starch was - 100, down 5 [14]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of the pig 2511 contract was 13550, up 160; the price of the pig 2509 contract was 14340, up 475. The spot price in Henan was 15100, up 50 [18]. - **Industry Data**: The daily sample slaughter volume was 136895, down 1775; the weekly white - strip price was 20.43, up 0.1 [18].

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月3日 | | | | 将诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1140 | 1140 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1230 | 1230 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1070 | 1070 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1290 | 1290 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 玻璃2505 | 1190 | 1113 | 77 | 6.92% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1052 | 980 | 72 | 7.35% | | | 05基左 | -20 | 27 | -77 | -285.19% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 00种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose, driven by geopolitical events and trade progress, but fundamental factors restricted the increase. Iran's suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear agency raised concerns about supply disruptions, and the US - Vietnam trade agreement boosted some demand expectations. However, OPEC+ planned production increases were digested, Saudi exports increased, US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, and gasoline demand was weak. The oil price broke through the previous trading range but lacked strong drivers, with a low probability of short - term unilateral trends. It is recommended to wait and see, with resistance levels for WTI at [67, 68], Brent at [69, 70], and SC at [510, 520]. Options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply - demand is tight in the short term due to maintenance expectations, high downstream loads, and new PTA production plans. However, as PXN recovers, some maintenance may be postponed, and weak terminal demand may limit the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with PX09 oscillating between 6600 - 6900 [6]. - **PTA**: In July, the maintenance of PTA devices is average, and new devices are stable. With expected downstream production cuts and weak terminal demand, supply - demand is turning loose. Although the low price is supported by raw materials, the absolute price is under pressure. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, with a short - position allocation at the upper edge of the range and a rolling reverse spread for TA9 - 1 [6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is increasing at home and abroad, and the supply - demand is gradually turning loose, with a possible inventory build - up from August to September. Domestic coal - based MEG plants are restarting, and overseas plants are also recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the seller of option EG2509 - C - 4450 exiting and a reverse spread for EG9 - 1 at high prices [6]. - **Short Fibre**: The supply - demand is weak. Although short - term prices are supported by raw materials due to expected production cuts and limited inventory pressure, weak downstream demand restricts the repair space of processing fees. PF is similar to PTA in unilateral trading, and the processing fees can be expanded at low levels [6]. - **Bottle Chips**: In July, due to the peak consumption season and production cuts by some plants, the supply - demand is expected to improve, and the processing fees are bottoming out. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is similar to PTA in unilateral trading, with a positive spread for PR8 - 9 at low prices and attention to expanding processing fees at the lower edge of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Urea The increase in urea futures prices is mainly driven by improved demand expectations, including seasonal agricultural demand, marginal improvement in industrial demand, and positive market sentiment from export tenders. Although supply - side device maintenance provides some support, overall supply growth restricts the upside. The supply - demand may further improve, and the short - term price may have upward potential depending on the tender results [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - side optimization expectation boosts market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but high profits lead to high production, and non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. The price may rebound at a low level under strong macro sentiment, but the momentum depends on spot market follow - up [38]. - **PVC**: The supply - side optimization policy is beneficial in the long - term, but short - term supply - demand contradictions are still prominent. The real - estate demand is dragging, and overseas factors may affect exports. PVC has a fundamental basis for a rebound, but the near - term upside is limited, and the long - term effect depends on policy implementation [38]. Methanol Port inventory build - up, Iranian plant restarts, and MTO device shutdowns increase the pressure on port prices, and the port basis weakens rapidly. The inland market is affected by high production and weak demand in the off - season, but more maintenance plans in July will relieve some supply pressure. Overall, the price has limited upside and downside, and interval operations are recommended [41]. Styrene The pure benzene market first declined and then rebounded at a low level. The styrene market in East China was stable, with a strong basis price as the paper - cargo delivery approached. In the medium term, tariffs and subsidies may not drive terminal demand further. High styrene profits stimulate production, and supply - demand pressure may lead to valuation repair, which may rely on a decline in styrene prices. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene due to raw material resonance [51]. Polyolefins Cost - end valuation has recovered, but monomer prices are firm, squeezing the profit of the monomer - purchasing process. The supply of PP and PE is shrinking, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. Although the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, there is still overall pressure. In the short - term, support from de - stocking can be noted, and for PP, short positions can be considered when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 3, Brent rose 2.00 to 69.11 dollars/barrel, WTI fell 0.19 to 67.26 dollars/barrel, and SC rose 10.50 to 509.00 yuan/barrel. Most spreads changed, with Brent - WTI increasing by 0.19 to 1.85 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD declined slightly, while ICE Gasoil rose 15.25 to 741.50 dollars/ton. The cracking spreads of some refined oils changed, with the US gasoline cracking spread falling 0.08 to 21.63 dollars/barrel [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Products**: On July 2, POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other prices mostly declined, while short - fiber and bottle - chip futures prices changed slightly [6]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX declined, and PX - related spreads also changed, such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha [6]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices and spreads changed, with the spot price falling and the basis weakening. The processing fees also decreased [6]. - **MEG - related**: MEG prices, inventory, and开工率 changed. The inventory decreased, and the开工 rate of some plants changed [6]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: On July 2, futures prices rose, and spot prices in some regions changed slightly. The basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [10][11][14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production decreased, and the plant start - up rate decreased. The inventory in some areas decreased, and the number of enterprise orders decreased [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: On July 2, the prices of caustic soda and PVC spot and futures changed. For example, the price of SH2509 rose 33.0 to 2391.0 yuan/ton [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The opening rates of caustic soda and PVC plants changed, and the inventory of some products changed. The downstream opening rates of caustic soda and PVC also had corresponding changes [36][37][38]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 2, MA2509 and MA2601 prices rose, and the basis and regional spreads changed. For example, the太仓 basis fell 95 to 61 [41]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol inventory increased slightly, and the开工率 of upstream and downstream plants changed. The upstream enterprise start - up rate increased, while the downstream MTO device start - up rate decreased [41]. Styrene - **Upstream**: On July 2, the prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream raw materials changed. The pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha spreads also changed [49]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot and futures prices declined, and the basis and month - spreads decreased [49]. - **Industry Chain**: The开工率 and profit of the styrene industry chain changed. For example, the styrene start - up rate increased, and the integrated profit increased significantly [51]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot**: On July 2, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices rose, and the basis and month - spreads changed. The spot prices of some products also changed [55]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of PE and PP plants changed, and the inventory decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP also changed [55].

36 关注微信公众号 | 资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 724.2 | 711.0 | 13.2 | 1.9% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 753.5 | 740.3 | 13.2 | 1.8% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 764.2 | 751.3 | 12.9 | 1.7% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 745.4 | 732.5 | 12.9 | 1.8% | | | 09合约基差:卡粉 | 47.7 | 42.5 | 5.2 | 12.3% | | | 09合约基差:PB粉 | 31.0 | 71.8 | -40.8 | -56.8% | 元/吨 | | 09合约基差:巴混粉 | 41.7 | 82.8 | -41.1 | -49.6% | | | 09合约基差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term copper prices are strong. The core drivers are the ongoing "232" investigation in the US and the unresolved LME warehouse receipt issue, which provide strong support for copper prices. Before the "232" investigation is finalized, the tight supply situation in non - US regions is difficult to reverse, and the main contract is expected to trade between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract trading in the range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract trading between 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract trading between 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices have rebounded due to higher interest rate cut expectations and a weak US dollar. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long - term, with the main contract trading between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment provides support, but the nickel fundamentals have not changed much. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The price upside is limited. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract trading between 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term under macro - support, with the main contract trading between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cut rhythms [12]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - on - rallies strategy based on inventory and import data is recommended [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton and changes in macro - expectations [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.98% to 80,990 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 11.18% to 2,403 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.44% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.14% to 20,810 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.86% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 100% to 0 tons. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 26,100 tons. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased by 11.75% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.04% to 22,290 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 262.82 yuan/ton to - 911 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots in seven regions increased by 3.60% week - on - week [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.49% to 122,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 3.85% to 2,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 23.08% to 200 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7912 million tons, an increase of 0.36%. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 0.28% week - on - week [12]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.75% to 268,500 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 17.60% to - 13,401.25 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.57% to 61,650 yuan/ton. The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 160 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The demand was 918,866 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% month - on - month [17].

| 历史分位数 留注 品种/合约 现货价格 期货价格 基差 基差率 现货参考 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 42 硅铁 (SF509) 5478 5436 0.77% 64.00% 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | | | | | | | 硅罐 (SM509) 5770 5726 44 0.77% 33.10% 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | | | | 85 螺纹钢 (RB2510) 3150 3065 2.77% 44.80% HRB40020mm:上海 | | | | | | | 29 0.91% 热卷(HC2510) 3220 3191 29.40% Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | | | | | 764 723 42 5.78% 35.00% 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 铁矿石 (12509) | | | | | | | 1294 1442 -148 -10.26% 14.35% 折算价:准一级冶金焦A13, S0.7,CSR60,MT7:日照港 焦炭 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The report provides a daily tracking and brief review of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, with details on total positions, main - contract positions, and changes in the top 20 long and short positions [1][2] Group 2: IF Index Futures Total and Main - Contract Positions - On July 2, the total position of the IF variety increased by 676 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 61 lots [5] Top 20 Long - Position Changes - Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IF variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,443 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest long - position increase, adding 1,604 lots, while Everbright Futures had the largest long - position decrease, cutting 287 lots [6] Top 20 Short - Position Changes - Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IF variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 44,199 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest short - position increase, adding 723 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest short - position decrease, cutting 448 lots [8] Group 3: IH Index Futures Total and Main - Contract Positions - On July 2, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 656 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 400 lots [11] Top 20 Long - Position Changes - Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IH variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 9,722 lots. Haitong Futures had the largest long - position increase, adding 301 lots, while Galaxy Futures had the largest long - position decrease, cutting 198 lots [12] Top 20 Short - Position Changes - Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IH variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,327 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest short - position increase, adding 343 lots, while GF Futures had the largest short - position decrease, cutting 477 lots [13] Group 4: IC Index Futures Total and Main - Contract Positions - On July 2, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 1,936 lots, and the position of the main contract 2507 decreased by 108 lots [17] Top 20 Long - Position Changes - Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IC variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 33,243 lots. Haitong Futures had the largest long - position increase, adding 1,050 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest long - position decrease, cutting 1,004 lots [18] Top 20 Short - Position Changes - Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IC variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 38,833 lots. Haitong Futures had the largest short - position increase, adding 479 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest short - position decrease, cutting 1,373 lots [19] Group 5: IM Index Futures Total and Main - Contract Positions - On July 2, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 8,772 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 5,718 lots [23] Top 20 Long - Position Changes - Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IM variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,430 lots. Guoxin Futures had the largest long - position increase, adding 268 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest long - position decrease, cutting 3,155 lots [23] Top 20 Short - Position Changes - Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IM variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 58,327 lots. Guoxin Futures had the largest short - position increase, adding 455 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest short - position decrease, cutting 2,713 lots [24]