| 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292 2025年12月29日 | | | | | 叶偏古 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 12月26日 | 12月25日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | | 1016.30 | 1008.76 | 7.54 | 0.75% | 元/牙 | | AG2602合约 | | 18319 | 17397 | 922 | 5.30% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | | 686 de | 657.65 | 29.30 | 4.46% | | | PD2606合约 | | 529.05 | 578.45 | -49.40 | -8.54% | 元/克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 12月26日 | 12月24日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | | 4562.00 | 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. The upward elasticity of steel prices is constrained by weak demand, but the price is supported by steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. The rebar 1 - 5 positive spread can be gradually exited, and attention can be paid to the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is still at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to form a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory below. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range operations on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [4]. Coke - Coke futures have fallen in advance. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the coke 2605 contract and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The rebound expectation of coking coal has been overdrawn in advance. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. The improvement expectation on the demand side is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term [9]. Ferromanganese - The supply of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia, with short - term operations as the main strategy [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3310 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coils increased from 3280 to 3283 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased from - 99 to - 105 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons. However, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, with rebar production increasing by 2.7 tons (1.5%) and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 1.6 tons (0.6%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons (- 2.8%), the rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons (- 4.0%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons (- 3.5%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.6 (19.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.7 tons (- 0.2%), the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.0 tons (- 2.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.8 tons (2.9%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.3%), while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 5.1%) [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 tons (- 3.6%), and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons (- 2.8%) [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume increased by 1.6 tons (0.5%), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons (1.1%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 136.2 tons (1.6%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 days (- 9.5%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 19 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased from 63.0 to 62.7 tons (- 0.5%), and the raw coal output decreased from 856.1 to 853.4 tons (- 0.3%) [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the demand for coke decreased [7]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased. The total coke inventory increased from 900.5 to 912.6 tons (1.4%), and the coking coal inventory in all - sample coking plants increased from 1036.3 to 1039.7 tons (0.3%) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price decreased by 20.0 yuan/ton (- 0.4%), and the ferromanganese主力合约 price decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. Ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 tons (- 1.34%), and ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.4 tons (2.34%) [9]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking remained stable, and the steel mills' price - pressing sentiment in steel tenders was strong [9]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in some sample enterprises changed slightly. The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons (- 2.4%), and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.4%) [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Steel Industry**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. Steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction support prices, but weak demand restricts upward movement. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread for rebar and focus on the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: Iron ore prices are likely to oscillate. Supply remains at a relatively high level, demand recovery is limited, and inventory is accumulating, but the marginal space for inventory accumulation is narrowing. It is recommended to use short - term range trading for the 05 contract, with the range from 760 - 810 [4]. - **Coke and Coking Coal Industry**: For coke, after the third - round spot price cut, the basis weakens, and the expected rebound is hard to sustain. It is advisable to take profit on long positions of the 2605 contract and switch to short - selling on rallies, and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, the rebound expectation is overdrawn, so take profit on long positions and switch to short - selling on rallies, also using the same arbitrage strategy [7]. - **Silicon Iron Industry**: Silicon iron supply - demand contradictions need to be alleviated. Although the production cut expectation is priced in, there is insufficient improvement in demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the 5500 - 5700 range [9]. - **Silicon Manganese Industry**: Silicon manganese is in a state of self - supply - demand imbalance, but the overall situation is relatively flat. Manganese ore prices support the cost. The price is expected to continue to be weak. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost, with short - term trading as the main approach [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices also showed mixed trends [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and plate billet prices decreased slightly, and most steel product profits declined [1]. - **Supply**: Daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, while the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased, but the apparent demand for five major steel products and rebar decreased, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt cost and spot prices of various iron ore varieties increased slightly, while the basis and spreads showed different changes [4]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments and port arrivals decreased slightly, but remained at a high level in the same period of history [4]. - **Demand**: Pig iron and crude steel production decreased, while daily average iron ore port clearance increased slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, mainly Australian ore [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures prices fluctuated weakly, and the third - round spot price cut was implemented. Coking coal futures prices fluctuated strongly, and the spot auction price was mixed [7]. - **Supply**: Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The inventory of both increased [7]. - **Demand**: Pig iron production remained stable, and the demand for coke and coking coal was weak [7]. Silicon Iron Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The silicon iron futures price decreased slightly, and the spot prices in some regions increased [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: Production costs decreased, and production profits increased [9]. - **Supply**: Silicon iron production decreased slightly, and the production cut was mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu [9]. - **Demand**: Steel - making demand was stable, non - steel demand increased slightly, and export orders were fair but with low price acceptance [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron decreased slightly [9]. Silicon Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The silicon manganese futures price decreased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: Manganese ore prices were stable, and production costs and profits changed slightly [9]. - **Supply**: Silicon manganese production increased slightly, with new production capacity in Inner Mongolia [9]. - **Demand**: Steel - making demand was stable, and steel mills had a strong price - pressing attitude in procurement [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon manganese remained at a high level [9].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View - From December 22 - 28, 2025, the pre - arrival of New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 9, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%; the total arrival volume was about 309,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 215,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 41%. With low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments, some spot prices in Jiangsu increased last week. The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 26, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends: the price of log 2601 was 766.0, up 0.5 (0.07%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 776.5, down 1.5 (-0.19%); log 2605 was 787.0, up 1.5 (0.19%). The prices of various spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The outer - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, in November, the port throughput was 189.2 million cubic meters, down 12.1 million cubic meters (-6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea was 49, down 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2] Inventory - In terms of weekly inventory at major ports, as of December 19, the inventory in China was 260 million cubic meters, down 12 million cubic meters (-4.41%) from December 12. Inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3] Demand - In terms of weekly average daily outbound volume, as of December 19, the average daily outbound volume in China was 6.32 million cubic meters, down 0.14 million cubic meters (-2%) from December 12. The demand in Shandong decreased, while that in Jiangsu increased slightly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The expected central price of gold in 2026 will gradually rise, targeting above $4,800. Some investors are pre - positioning in precious metals, leading to continuous increases in ETF holdings and rising derivative positions. Without clear negative factors, the short - term market will maintain a strong trend. However, investors should guard against short - term sharp fluctuations, maintain a long - only mindset but lock in profits in a timely manner [1]. - Silver, supported by favorable financial and industrial attributes, has strong physical demand and persistent inventory shortages. The "irrational" upward trend driven by market sentiment may not end soon. Future attention should be paid to risk - control measures by exchanges like CME and potential price corrections due to global commodity index rebalancing, which could provide a long - term buying opportunity. Also, monitor the repair of the domestic premium. Before the New Year's Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce positions or lock in positions on rallies [1]. - In the domestic market, the platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are in the early stage of listing, with overall low liquidity in positions and a domestic premium compared to the overseas market. As regulatory risk - control measures strengthen, long - position holders with large profits may take profits on rallies, leading to significant short - term price fluctuations. It is advised to wait and see before the holiday and lock in long positions in a timely manner, then make new allocations after the market stabilizes in the new year [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1,016.30 yuan/tael on December 26, up 7.54 yuan or 0.75% from December 25 [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 18,319 yuan/kg on December 26, up 922 yuan or 5.30% from December 25 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 686 (unit unclear), up 29.30 (unit unclear) or 4.46% from December 25 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 529.05 yuan/g on December 26, down 49.40 yuan or 8.54% from December 25 [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at $4,562 on December 26, up $56.60 or 1.26% from December 24 [1]. - COMEX silver main contract closed at $79.68 on December 26, up $7.80 or 10.85% from December 24 [1]. - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $2,513.90/ounce on December 26, up $241.00 or 10.60% from December 24 [1]. - NYMEX lithium gold main contract closed at $2,060.50 on December 26, up $239.50 or 13.15% from December 24 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at $4,532.51 on December 26, up $53.11 or 1.19% from December 25 [1]. - London silver was at $79.33 on December 26, up $7.52 or 10.47% from December 25 [1]. - Spot platinum was at $2,459.50/ounce on December 26, up $251.50 or 11.39% from December 25 [1]. - Spot palladium was at $1,925 on December 26, up $88 or 4.79% from December 25 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1,008.80 yuan/tael on December 26, up 5.79 yuan or 0.58% from December 25 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 18,469 yuan/kg on December 26, up 1,055 yuan or 6.06% from December 25 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 662 yuan/gram on December 26, up 71 yuan or 11.99% from December 25 [1]. Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was - 7.50, down 1.75 from the previous value, at the 6.80% historical one - year quantile [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was 150, up 133 from the previous value, at the 95.90% historical one - year quantile [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold basis was - 29.49, down 3.49 from the previous value, at the 26.90% historical one - year quantile [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver basis was - 0.35, down 0.28 from the previous value, at the 38.70% historical one - year quantile [1]. Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 57.26, down 5.43 or 8.66% from the previous value [1]. - Another price ratio was 55.48, down 2.51 or - 4.32% from the previous value [1]. - NYMEX platinum/aluminum ratio was 1.22, down 0.03 or - 2.25% from the previous value [1]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.30, up 0.16 or 14.21% from the previous value [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.14%, down 0.01 percentage points or - 0.2% from the previous value [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.46%, down 0.01 percentage points or - 0.3% from the previous value [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91%, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - US dollar index was 98.03, up 0.13 or 0.13% from the previous value [1]. - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.0042, up 0.0032 or 0.05% from the previous value [1]. Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 97,692, up 3,981 or 4.25% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 819,431 kg, down 32,986 kg or - 3.87% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold inventory was 36,191,255, up 31,894 or 0.09% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver inventory was 449,727,730, down 1,624,956 or - 0.36% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 19,361,515 [1]. - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,624,307, up 1,268,758 or 1.00% from the previous value [1]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,071, up 2.86 or 0.27% from the previous value [1]. - SLV silver ETF holdings were 16,391, down 56.40 or - 0.34% from the previous value [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand situation in the caustic soda industry remains severe. Although the operating rate has declined slightly and inventory has decreased marginally this week, the inventory level is still relatively high compared to the same period in recent years. Downstream demand is weak, and there are no obvious short - term positive factors. The price is expected to be bearish next week. The Shandong market performs poorly, and there are expectations of price cuts in alumina procurement in Shanxi and Henan, which is negative for the Shandong market. The supply in Shandong remains high, and further price cuts are possible. In the East China region, the supply of liquid caustic soda plants is expected to increase, while downstream demand shows no substantial improvement. The current strong performance of the futures price lacks real support, and the rebound height is expected to be limited [2]. - **PVC**: This week, PVC prices continued to rise driven by commodities. The operating rate decreased slightly, but the inventory remained at a high level, and demand was persistently weak. During the off - season, the operating rate of hard products was at a low level, while that of soft products was relatively stable. Market transactions were mainly based on spot fixed - price sales. As prices rose, downstream观望 sentiment increased, and high - price exports faced significant resistance. The cost support was weak. Currently in the traditional off - season, outdoor construction in the north is decreasing, and the overall real estate demand reduction has a negative impact. The international market is highly competitive, and exports have limited support. The overall demand side performs poorly, and the current weak fundamentals of PVC spot are difficult to support the continued rise of the PVC market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Price and Market**: The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand relationships, and cost fluctuations. The spot price has also been affected by factors like alumina procurement prices. The current price is expected to be bearish in the short term [2][8]. - **Supply**: As of Thursday this week, the national weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises was 88.47%, a decrease of 1.37 percentage points from last week. The inventory in East China decreased slightly, while that in Shandong increased due to high supply and weak demand [27]. - **Device Status**: Some enterprises in different regions are in a state of shutdown, half - load operation, or maintenance. The total maintenance loss this week was 3.15 tons, and there are also planned maintenance arrangements in the future [28]. - **Alumina Demand**: From the end of 24 to 25, there are plans to put into production 1230 tons of alumina capacity (including 200 tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%, and the annual output in 2025 will be over 8800 tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 80 tons annually, with a relatively concentrated increase of 15 tons from April to June [32]. - **Export**: In November, caustic soda exports weakened, but the estimated export profit increased slightly [58]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market**: PVC spot prices continued to rise this week driven by the sentiment of commodities. However, the fundamentals of the spot market are weak, and it is difficult to support continued price increases [3][66]. - **Profit**: This week, as prices rose, the industry profit was slightly repaired [71]. - **Supply**: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased slightly this week. There was a new enterprise under maintenance, and the maintenance loss increased. The overall operating load rate was 75.42%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder increased by 0.45 percentage points, while that of ethylene - based PVC powder decreased by 3.33 percentage points [87]. - **Device Status**: There are long - term shutdown, maintenance, and temporary shutdown situations in different enterprises. The theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance this week was 5.362 tons, an increase of 0.495 tons from last week. It is expected that the maintenance loss will decrease next week [89][91]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry is still in a bottom - building period, providing negative feedback on demand. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years. Raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels, and it is difficult for the downstream of PVC to have positive driving forces [93]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory is still at the highest level compared to recent years [101]. - **Export**: In November 2025, PVC exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, while imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [118].

Report Information - Report Title: All-variety Spread Daily Report [3] - Date: December 29, 2025 [3] - Author: Ye Qianning [3] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] 1292 [3] Core Content Black Series - Silicon Iron (SF603): Spot price 5672, futures price -44, change -0.78%, historical quantile 50.60%, conversion price: 72 Silicon Iron qualified block: Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipt [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM603): Spot price 5860, futures price 20, change 0.34%, historical quantile 28.60%, conversion price: 6517 Silicon Manganese: Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipt [1] - Rebar (RB2605): Spot price 3290, futures price 172, change 5.52%, historical quantile 67.60%, HRB400 20mm: Shanghai [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605): Spot price 3283, futures price -13, change -0.40%, historical quantile 12.70%, Q235B: 4.75mm: Shanghai [1] - Iron Ore (I2605): Spot price 850, futures price 67, change 8.59%, historical quantile 52.30%, conversion price: 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF): Vale: Rizhao Port [1] - Coke (J2605): Spot price 1723, futures price 3, change 0.20%, historical quantile 66.56%, conversion price: quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke A13, S0.7, CSR60, MT7: Rizhao Port [1] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Spot price 1156, futures price 41, change 3.63%, historical quantile 37.00%, conversion price: S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) Shaheyi [1] Non - ferrous Series - Copper (CU2602): Spot price 97740, futures price -980, change -0.9%, historical quantile 3.33%, 5MM computer shaft internal instrument SMM open discount -340 [1] - Aluminum (AL2602): Spot price 22020, futures price -382, change -1.72%, historical quantile 0.41%, SMM A00 aluminum average price SMM open discount -190 [1] - Alumina (AO2605): Spot price 2708, futures price -82, change -3.06%, historical quantile 12.77%, SMM aluminum hydroxide modulus average price [1] - Zinc (ZN2602): Spot price 23130, futures price -40, change -0.17%, historical quantile 55.41%, SMM 1 zinc ingot average price SMM open discount 82 [1] - Tin (SN2602): Spot price 334750, futures price -3800, change -1.11%, historical quantile 4.37%, SMM 1 tin average price SMM open discount 500 [1] - Nickel (NI2602): Spot price 126600, futures price -150, change -0.12%, historical quantile 42.70%, SMM 1 imported nickel average price SMM open discount 400 [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2602): Spot price 13220, futures price 265, change 2.05%, historical quantile 49.14%, 304/2B: 2*1240*C: Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) [1] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2605): Spot price 111900, futures price -18620, change -14.27%, historical quantile 0.88%, SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1] - Industrial Silicon (SI2602): Spot price 9250, futures price 370, change 4.17%, historical quantile 21.56%, SMM annual flux 215530 average price [1] Precious Metals Series - Gold (AU2602): Spot price 1016.3, futures price -7.5, change -0.74%, historical quantile 0.30%, Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1] - Silver (AG2602): Spot price 18469.0, futures price 150.0, change 0.82%, historical quantile 99.50%, Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1] Agricultural Products Series - Soybean Meal (M2605): Spot price 3050, futures price 260.0, change 9.32%, historical quantile 66.30%, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang ex - factory price: ordinary protein soybean meal [1] - Soybean Oil (Y2605): Spot price 8280, futures price 444.0, change 5.67%, historical quantile 76.20%, Jiangsu: Zhangjiagang: ex - factory price: Grade 4 soybean oil [1] - Palm Oil (P2605): Spot price 8560, futures price -8.0, change -0.09%, historical quantile 24.30%, Delivery price Palm Oil Huangpu Port [1] - Rapeseed Meal (RM605): Spot price 2570, futures price 179.0, change 7.49%, historical quantile 81.10%, Guangdong · Zhanjiang · ex - factory price: ordinary rapeseed meal [1] - Rapeseed Oil (OI605): Spot price 9690, futures price 644.0, change 7.12%, historical quantile 93.60%, Jiangsu: Nantong: ex - factory price: Grade 4 rapeseed oil [1] - Corn (C2603): Spot price 2300, futures price 78.0, change 3.51%, historical quantile 80.70%, FOB price: Corn: Xizhou Port [1] - Corn Starch (CS2603): Spot price 2620, futures price 106.0, change 4.22%, historical quantile 51.20%, Jilin: Changchun: ex - factory price: corn starch [1] - Live Pigs (H2603): Spot price 12050, futures price 405.0, change 3.48%, historical quantile 57.90%, Henan ex - factory price: live pigs (ternary outside) [1] - Eggs (JD2602): Spot price 2820, futures price -137.0, change -4.63%, historical quantile 26.90%, Hebei: Shijiazhuang: average price: eggs [1] - Cotton (CF605): Spot price 15118, futures price 583.0, change 4.01%, historical quantile 19.60%, Xinjiang: arrival price: Cotton: 3128B [1] - White Sugar (SR605): Spot price 5440, futures price 155.0, change 2.93%, historical quantile 26.20%, Spot price: White Sugar: Liuzhou Station [1] - Apples (AP605): Spot price 9200, futures price -47.0, change -0.5%, historical quantile 21.50%, Apples: Delivery theoretical price (Daily/Steel Union) [1] - Red Dates (CJ605): Spot price 8400, futures price -580.0, change -6.46%, historical quantile 66.20%, Gray dates: Grade 1: Wholesale price: Hebei (Steel Union) [1] Energy and Chemical Series - Paraxylene (PX603): Spot price 7424.0, futures price -132.0, change -1.75%, historical quantile 7.00%, China main port: Spot price (CFR): Paraxylene: Converted to RMB [1] - PTA (TA605): Spot price 5280.0, futures price -120.0, change -2.27%, historical quantile 13.80%, Market price (middle price): Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA): East China region [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2605): Spot price 3675.0, futures price -171.0, change -4.45%, historical quantile 3.90%, Market price (middle price): Ethylene Glycol (MEG): East China region [1] - Short - staple (PF602): Spot price 6570.0, futures price -96.0, change -1.44%, historical quantile 20.50%, Market price (mainstream price) Polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct spinning): East China market [1] - Styrene (EB2602): Spot price 6865.0, futures price 78.0, change 1.15%, historical quantile 46.30%, China: East China: Market price (spot benchmark price): Styrene [1] - Methanol (MA605): Spot price 2135.0, futures price -26.0, change -1.20%, historical quantile 22.20%, China: Jiangsu Taicang: Market price (spot benchmark price): Methanol [1] - Urea (UR605): Spot price 1730.0, futures price -5.0, change -0.29%, historical quantile 14.50%, Market price (mainstream price) Urea (small particles) Shandong region [1] - LLDPE (L2605): Spot price 6290.0, futures price -175.0, change -2.71%, historical quantile 0.70%, Duty - paid self - pick - up price (middle price): Linear Low - Density Polyethylene LLDPE (film grade): Shandong [1] - PVC (V2605): Spot price 4500.0, futures price -332.0, change -6.87%, historical quantile 4.10%, China: Changzhou market: Market price (mainstream price) Polyvinyl Chloride (SG - 5) [1] - Caustic Soda (SH603): Spot price 2219.0, futures price -49.0, change -2.1%, historical quantile 35.00%, Market price (mainstream price): Caustic Soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda): Shandong market: Converted to 100% [1] - LPG (PG2602): Spot price 4528.0, futures price 448.0, change 10.98%, historical quantile 63.90%, Market price: Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Guangzhou region [1] - Asphalt (BU2602): Spot price 2920.0, futures price -75.0, change -2.50%, historical quantile 35.40%, Market price (mainstream price): Asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt): Shandong region [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2602): Spot price 11100.0, futures price -535.0, change -4.60%, historical quantile 2.50%, China: Distribution price: Butadiene Rubber (Daqing, BR9000): CNPC East China [1] - Glass (FG605): Spot price 920.0, futures price -137.0, change -14.89%, historical quantile 14.49%, Float glass: 5mm: Large board: Market price: Shahe: Shahe Great Wall Glass (Daily) [1] - Soda Ash (SA605): Spot price 1141.0, futures price -59.0, change -5.17%, historical quantile 18.69%, Soda Ash: Heavy - grade: Market price: Shahe (Daily) [1] - PP (PP2605): Spot price 6235.0, futures price -57.0, change -0.91%, historical quantile 11.90%, Duty - paid self - pick - up price (middle price): Polypropylene PP (wire - drawing grade, melt index 2 - 4): Zhejiang [1] Financial Series - IF2603.CFF: Spot price 4657.2, futures price -18.8, change -0.41%, historical quantile 25.00% [1] - IH2603.CFE: Spot price 3045.4, futures price 6.0, change 0.20%, historical quantile 87.10% [1] - IC2603.CFE: Spot price 7458.8, futures price -70.8, change -0.95%, historical quantile 9.10% [1] - IM2603.CFE: Spot price 7472.4, futures price -133.1, change -1.78%, historical quantile 10.90% [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2605): Spot price 15300.0, futures price -480.0, change -3.14%, historical quantile 65.91%, Shanghai market price: Natural Rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole latex) [1] - 2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2603): Spot price 100.16, futures price -0.07, change -0.07%, historical quantile 10.30%, Conversion factor 0.9774 [1] - 5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2603): Spot price 99.74, futures price -0.06, change -0.05%, historical quantile 19.70%, Conversion factor 0.9412 [1] - 30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2603): Spot price 127.56, futures price 0.46, change 0.41%, historical quantile 68.50%, Conversion factor 1.1263 [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: The expected central price of gold in 2026 will gradually rise, targeting over $4,800. Some investors are pre - positioning in precious metals, leading to increased ETF and derivatives positions. In the short - term, the market will remain strong without clear negative factors. For silver, due to favorable financial and industrial attributes, strong physical demand and tight inventory, the "irrational" price increase may continue. However, investors should watch for regulatory measures and potential price corrections. In the domestic market, the newly - listed futures on Guangzhou Futures Exchange have low liquidity, and there is a risk of short - term price fluctuations. It is recommended to lock in profits and wait for a more stable market after the New Year [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The settlement price indices of container shipping, such as SCFIS and SCFI, have shown varying degrees of increase. The futures prices of container shipping contracts have also changed, and the fundamentals show that the global container shipping capacity supply remains stable, while some overseas economic indicators have slightly declined [5]. 3. Summary by Category **Stock Index Futures Spread** - **Futures - Spot Spread**: The IF futures - spot spread is - 18.84, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 13.10% and an all - time quantile of 49.10%. The IH futures - spot spread is 4.84, with corresponding quantiles of 94.60% and 87.10%. The IC futures - spot spread is - 70.84, and the IM futures - spot spread is - 133.13 [1]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Different inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM show various values and quantiles. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread for IF is - 15.00, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 35.60% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., also have their respective values and quantiles. For instance, the CSI 500/CSI 300 ratio is 1.6016, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 97.90% [1]. **Bond Futures Basis and Spread** - **Basis**: On December 26, 2025, the TS basis is - 0.0682, the TF basis is 0.0192, the T basis is - 0.0127, and the TL basis is - 0.1615, with different historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - period Spread**: For example, the current - quarter minus next - quarter spread for TS is - 0.0480, with a historical quantile of 15.30% [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The TS - TF spread is - 0.0220, the TS - T spread is - 5.7520, etc., with corresponding historical quantiles [2]. **Precious Metals** - **Domestic and Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: On December 26, 2025, the AU2602 contract closed at 1016.30 yuan/gram, up 0.75% from the previous day. COMEX gold closed at $4,562.00, up 1.26% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at $4,532.51 per ounce, up 1.19%. Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold TD was at 1008.80 yuan/gram, up 0.58% [3]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold futures spread is - 7.50, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 6.80% [3]. - **Price Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 57.26, down 8.66% [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.14%, down 0.2%, and the US dollar index is 98.03, up 0.13% [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 4.25% to 97,692 units, while the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.36% to 449,727,730 units [3]. **Container Shipping** - **Shipping Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settled at 1589.20 points on December 22, up 5.21% from December 15. The SCFI composite index was 1552.92 points on December 19, up 3.08% from December 12 [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 (main contract) closed at 1824.5 on December 26, up 1.38% from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was - 235.3, down 11.78% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply remained at 3365.73 million TEU on December 29. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai in November was 40.00%, down 18.50% from October [5].

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月29日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | 王法庭 | Z0019938 | | 臣湘 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12月26日 | 12月25日 | 旅鉄 | 张跃幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | | | | | 8390 | 8350 | 40 | 0.48% | | | 期价 | Y2605 | | | | | 7836 | 7824 | 12 | 0.15% | | | 墓差 | Y2605 | | | | | 554 | 526 | 28 | 5.32% | | 现货墓差报价 | | 江苏5月 | | | | | 05+500 | 05+500 | 0 | D | | | 仓单 | | | | | | 28264 | 28264 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On December 26, 2025, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased significantly or notably, with specific changes in the positions of the top 20 long and short seats [1][4][10][15][21] Summary by Related Catalogs IF - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On December 26, the total position of IF increased by 16,208 hands, and the position of the main contract 2603 increased by 10,739 hands [4] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of IF, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 49,339 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 4,325 hands, and Everbright Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 350 hands [5] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of IF, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,277 hands. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 3,478 hands, and there was no reduction in the top 20 short seats [7] IH - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On December 26, the total position of IH increased by 9,590 hands, and the position of the main contract 2603 increased by 5,033 hands [10] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of IH, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,836 hands. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 3,093 hands, and CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 27 hands [10] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of IH, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 14,087 hands. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 1,692 hands, and Guoguangfa Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 87 hands [11] IC - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On December 26, the total position of IC increased by 25,777 hands, and the position of the main contract 2603 increased by 13,072 hands [15] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of IC, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 47,729 hands. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 7,087 hands, and China Merchants Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 1,292 hands [16] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of IC, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 49,974 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 5,544 hands, and CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 92 hands [18] IM - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On December 26, the total position of IM increased by 21,680 hands, and the position of the main contract 2603 increased by 11,763 hands [21] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of IM, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 59,039 hands. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 5,932 hands, and Guotou Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 565 hands [21] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of IM, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 77,981 hands. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 6,357 hands, and Everbright Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 9 hands [23]