Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides comprehensive analyses and outlooks for various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, commodities, and agricultural products, offering investment suggestions based on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic factors [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Nickel**: The expectation of tightened nickel ore supply has strengthened, driving the price up, yet the short - term reality remains weak and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price is likely to oscillate and recover in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 124,000 - 132,000 [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Despite overseas supply contraction, the cost side is weakening, and the supply - demand outlook is still poor. It is expected to be weak in the short term. Strategies include short - term anti - arbitrage for EG5 - 9 and holding the seller position of EG2605 - C - 4100 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price shows mixed trends, and the futures have rebounded from oversold levels. Short - term speculation on the rebound is recommended, and going long on the coking coal 2605 contract on dips is advised [4] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price maintains a bearish pattern, and the upside space for the domestic sugar price's bottom - rebound is limited. A bearish view on the rebound is maintained [5] - **Silver**: Driven by funds during the holiday season, the price is strong. However, the weakening of physical delivery demand and the increase in domestic inventory may ease the bullish sentiment. It is recommended to hold long positions and reduce or lock positions on rallies before the Spring Festival [6] Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - The major stock indices fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, with pro - cyclical sectors performing well. The four major stock index futures contracts mostly rose with deep basis discounts. The market may oscillate in a range due to unclear main trends and insufficient trading volume. It is advisable to observe cautiously [7][8][9] Bond Futures - Bond futures closed higher across the board. The capital market remains loose, and the sentiment in the bond market has improved. It is recommended to go long on the T - contract on dips, and participate in the positive arbitrage and basis widening strategies for the 2603 contract [10][11][12] Precious Metals - After a mid - session correction, precious metals rebounded strongly and closed higher due to better - than - expected US economic growth in Q3, a falling US dollar, and Trump's call for interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in the long run, and for silver, reduce or lock positions on rallies before the Spring Festival. For platinum and palladium, buy on dips [13][15][16] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS and SCFI indices showed an upward trend. The futures market oscillated downward, and it is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory pattern [18] Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The domestic spot discount has widened, and global inventories have increased. Although the price is strong due to the structural imbalance of overseas inventories, the terminal demand is significantly suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the support at 93,500 - 94,000 [18][21][22] - **Alumina**: The warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and the price oscillates around the cash cost at a low level. It is expected to continue this pattern, and short - term traders can go long on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [23][24][25] - **Aluminum**: The price oscillates at a high level, and the spot discount has widened. With macro - level support and fundamental pressure, it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600. It is advisable to go long on dips [25][27][28] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The social inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price is strong. With strong cost support and weakening demand, it is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [29][30][31] - **Zinc**: The zinc ore TC has stabilized, and the social inventory has continued to decrease. The price oscillates, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 22,850 - 22,950 for the main contract and continue to hold the cross - market anti - arbitrage position [31][33][34] - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [35][38][39] - **Nickel**: Similar to the daily selection, the expectation of tightened ore supply has strengthened, but the short - term reality is weak and the medium - term is loose. The main contract reference range is 124,000 - 132,000 [39][41][42] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates strongly, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,200 [43][44][45] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures sentiment is still strong, and the fundamentals are in a state of both supply and demand growth. The price may continue to test high levels and then retrace. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 122,000 [46][47][49] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has declined slightly, and the futures oscillate. The demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the production cut and the acceptance of price adjustments [50][51][52] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price oscillates and rebounds. The supply and demand are both slightly decreasing, and it is expected to be in a low - level oscillatory pattern, with attention paid to the implementation of production cuts [52][53][54] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price oscillates in a range. The production has decreased, and the inventory has been reduced. It is expected that the rebar will oscillate between 3,000 - 3,200 and the hot - rolled coil between 3,150 - 3,350. Some arbitrage strategies are also recommended [54][55][56] - **Iron Ore**: The price may rebound slightly due to limited decline space for molten iron and the expectation of steel mills' restocking. It is recommended to conduct short - term range trading for the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [57][58][59] - **Coking Coal**: The same as the daily selection, the spot price shows mixed trends, and the futures have rebounded from oversold levels. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract on dips [60][61][62] - **Coke**: The third - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to take profit on the long positions of the coke 2605 contract [63][64][66] - **Silicon Iron**: The production cut has alleviated the supply - demand contradiction, and the cost is stable. It is expected to oscillate between 5,400 - 5,650 [67][68][69] - **Silicon Manganese**: The high inventory suppresses the price rebound, but the cost provides support. It is recommended to try short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia's current cost, with short - term operations [70][71][72] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean has support around 1050, and the domestic soybean meal market is loose. The downside space is limited, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance around 2,750 for the main contract [74][75][76] - **Hogs**: Driven by demand, the price is stable and slightly strong. The futures may oscillate strongly in the short term, with support around 11,000 [77][78][79] - **Corn**: The price is under pressure, and the trading is inactive. The short - term price may be weak, but the decline space is limited. Attention should be paid to the selling sentiment and policy releases [80][81] - **Sugar**: The same as the daily selection, the international raw sugar price is bearish, and the domestic upside space is limited. A bearish view on the rebound is maintained [82][83][84] - **Cotton**: The US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and the upward trend of domestic cotton has slowed down. The domestic cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in a range, but the upward momentum is limited [85][86][87] - **Eggs**: The price is stable or falling, the supply is still loose, and the near - term contract is expected to oscillate weakly [88][89] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil is expected to strengthen, soybean oil may oscillate narrowly, and rapeseed oil's spot price fluctuates with the futures, with the basis oscillating narrowly [90][91][92] - **Jujubes**: The price continues to test the bottom and may rebound if the market sentiment is boosted during the Spring Festival. Otherwise, it will continue to be under pressure [93][94] - **Apples**: The price has risen slightly, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm [95] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it is favored by funds. However, considering the possible polyester production cut, it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and take a long - term low - buying strategy [96][97] - **PTA**: Driven by the raw material PX, but with limited self - drive, it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and take a long - term low - buying strategy [98][99] - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and it follows the raw material price. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position and shrink the processing margin on rallies [100] - **Bottle Chip**: The cost is strong, and the supply is expected to increase, compressing the processing margin. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, shrink the processing margin on rallies, and hold the seller position of PR2602 - P - 5500 [101][102] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The same as the daily selection, it is expected to be weak in the short term. Strategies include short - term anti - arbitrage for EG5 - 9 and holding the seller position of EG2605 - C - 4100 [103] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, but there is a possibility of improvement in the future. It is expected to oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600 [104] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the rebound space is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 6,300 - 6,700 [106][107] - **LLDPE**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is recommended to wait and see [108] - **PP**: The basis has weakened, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the expansion of PDH profit [108][109] - **Methanol**: The futures oscillate narrowly. The port may see a supply - demand balance shift in Q1 next year, and the mainland is expected to be stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [110] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pressure remains, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be bearish in the short term [111][112] - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in a range with limited rebound [113][114] - **Soda Ash**: The production is at a high level, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. It is recommended to short on rallies [115][116] - **Glass**: The spot price is under pressure. The 05 contract is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom before positive drivers emerge. It is recommended to wait and see [115][117] - **Natural Rubber**: The price oscillates in a range due to the game between supply and demand factors. It is recommended to wait and see [117][118][119] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost oscillates, and the supply is high. The BR is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 11,200 - 11,300 for the BR2602 contract [119][120][121]

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月24日 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月23日 | 12月22日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 764.5 | 769.5 | -5.0 | -0.65% | | | 原木2603 | 770.0 | 778.0 | -8.0 | -1.03% | | | 原木2605 | 781.0 | 783.5 | -2.5 | -0.32% | | | 01-03价差 | -5.5 | -8.5 | 3.0 | | | | 01-05价差 | -16.5 | -14.0 | -2.5 | | | | 03合约基差 | -30.0 | -38.0 | 8.0 | | | | 01合约基差 | -24.5 | -29.5 | 5.0 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日 ...

Report Information - Report Title: All Varieties Spread Daily Report [3] - Date: December 24, 2025 [3] - Author: Ye Qianning [5] - Investment Advisory License: Securities Regulatory License [2011] 1292 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core View - The report presents the basis, spot price, futures price, basis rate, historical quantile, and other data of various commodities including black series, non - ferrous series, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical series, and financial series on December 24, 2025 [1]. Commodity Data Summary Black Series - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: The conversion price of 72 - silicon iron qualified block (Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipt) is 5628, with a basis rate of - 0.39%, and the historical quantile is 53.10% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: The conversion price of 6517 silicon manganese (Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipt) is 5840, and the historical quantile is 28.10% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3320, the futures price is 3281, the basis is 39, the basis rate is 1.19%, and the historical quantile is 6.14% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is not provided, the futures price is not provided, and the historical quantile is 13.40% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: The conversion price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 1745, the basis is 4, the basis rate is 0.23%, and the historical quantile is 49.20% [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: The conversion price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke A13, S0.7, CSR60, MT7 at Rizhao Port is 1741, and the historical quantile is 66.56% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: The conversion price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1156, the basis is 30, the basis rate is 2.71%, and the historical quantile is 32.60% [1] Non - Ferrous Series - **Copper (CU2602)**: The spot price of 5MM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 93930, the futures price is 93470, the basis is 460, the basis rate is 0.49%, and the historical quantile is 15.00% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum average price is 22195, the futures price is 21870, the basis is 325, the basis rate is 1.49%, and the historical quantile is 9.00% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The SMM alumina index average price is 2520, and the historical quantile is 79.29% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2602)**: The spot price of SMM 1 zinc ingot average price is 23090, the futures price is 23020, the basis is 70, the basis rate is 0.30%, and the historical quantile is 46.04% [1]. - **Tin (SN2602)**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin average price is 344750, the futures price is 339800, the basis is 4950, the basis rate is 1.46%, and the historical quantile is 2.91% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2602)**: The spot price of 304/2B: 2*1240*C: Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 13120, the futures price is 12905, the basis is 215, the basis rate is 1.67%, and the historical quantile is 41.20% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 120360, the futures price is 99500, the basis is 20860, the basis rate is 21.17%, and the historical quantile is 5.35% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SIS605)**: The spot price of SMM East China oxygen - passing SI5530 average price is 9250, the futures price is 8780, the basis is 470, the basis rate is 5.35%, and the historical quantile is 29.30% [1] Precious Metals Series - **Gold (AU2602)**: The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) is 1006.5, the futures price is 1014.2, the basis is - 7.8, the basis rate is - 0.77%, and the historical quantile is 49.80% [1]. - **Silver (AG2602)**: The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) is 16441.0, the futures price is 16420.0, the basis is 21.0, the basis rate is 0.13%, and the historical quantile is not provided [1] Agricultural Products Series - **Soybean Meal (MS605)**: The spot price of Jiangsu Zhangjiagang factory - price: ordinary protein soybean meal is 3030, the futures price is 2745.0, the basis is 285.0, the basis rate is 10.38%, and the historical quantile is 68.10% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (V2605)**: The spot price of Jiangsu: Zhangjiagang factory - price: fourth - grade soybean oil is 8180, the futures price is 7772.0, the basis is 408.0, the basis rate is 5.25%, and the historical quantile is 70.70% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: The delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 8486.0, the futures price is 8430, the basis is 56.0, the basis rate is 0.66%, and the historical quantile is 12.30% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: The spot price of Guangdong Zhanjiang factory - price: ordinary rapeseed meal is 2510, the futures price is 2349.0, the basis is 161.0, the basis rate is 6.85%, and the historical quantile is 78.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: The spot price of Jiangsu: Nantong: factory - price: fourth - grade rapeseed oil is 9420, the futures price is 8847.0, the basis is 573.0, the basis rate is 6.48%, and the historical quantile is 93.10% [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: The flat - hatch price of corn at Xizhou Port is 2280, the futures price is 2189.0, the basis is 91.0, the basis rate is 4.16%, and the historical quantile is 84.80% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: The spot price of Jilin: Changchun: factory - price: corn starch is 2620, the futures price is 2487.0, the basis is 133.0, the basis rate is 5.35%, and the historical quantile is 68.80% [1]. - **Live Pigs (LH2603)**: The spot price of Henan factory - price: live pigs (external ternary) is 11700, the futures price is 11415.0, the basis is 285.0, the basis rate is 2.50%, and the historical quantile is 54.50% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2602)**: The spot price of Hebei Shijiazhuang: average price: eggs is 2960, the futures price is 2876.0, the basis is 84.0, the basis rate is 2.92%, and the historical quantile is 46.00% [1]. - **Cotton (CF605)**: The spot price of Xinjiang: arrival - at - factory price: cotton: 3128B is 15067, the futures price is 14140.0, the basis is 927.0, the basis rate is 6.56%, and the historical quantile is 45.80% [1]. - **Sugar (SR605)**: The spot price of sugar at Liuzhou Station is 5380, the futures price is 5155.0, the basis is 225.0, the basis rate is 4.36%, and the historical quantile is 37.00% [1]. - **Apples (AP605)**: The theoretical delivery price of apples (daily/Steel Union) is 9230.0, the futures price is 9000, the basis is 230.0, the basis rate is - 2.49%, and the historical quantile is 14.10% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ605)**: The spot price of gray dates: first - grade: wholesale price: Hebei (Steel Union) is 8750.0, the futures price is 8400, the basis is 350.0, the basis rate is - 4.00%, and the historical quantile is 74.10% [1] Energy and Chemical Series - **Paraxylene (PX603)**: The spot price of China's main port: spot price (CFR): paraxylene: converted to RMB is 7302.0, the futures price is 7257.0, the basis is 45.0, the basis rate is 0.62%, and the historical quantile is 17.50% [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: The market price (intermediate price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in the East China region is 5082.0, the futures price is 4990.0, the basis is 92.0, the basis rate is 1.85%, and the historical quantile is 19.10% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: The market price (intermediate price) of ethylene glycol (EG) in the East China region is 3623.0, the futures price is 3500.0, the basis is 123.0, the basis rate is 3.51%, and the historical quantile is 13.00% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spinning)) in the East China market is 6452.0, the futures price is 6410.0, the basis is 42.0, the basis rate is 0.65%, and the historical quantile is 30.60% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2602)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China is 6570.0, the futures price is 6509.0, the basis is 61.0, the basis rate is 0.94%, and the historical quantile is 42.50% [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang, China is 2132.0, the futures price is 2156.0, the basis is - 24.0, the basis rate is - 1.12%, and the historical quantile is 23.40% [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: The market price (mainstream price) of urea (small particles) in Shandong region is 1721.0, the futures price is 1720.0, the basis is 1.0, the basis rate is 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 15.10% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong is 6296.0, the futures price is 6250.0, the basis is 46.0, the basis rate is 0.73%, and the historical quantile is 10.30% [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of polypropylene PP (拉丝 grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang is 6240.0, the futures price is 6158.0, the basis is 82.0, the basis rate is 1.33%, and the historical quantile is 49.70% [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in Changzhou market, China is 4738.0, the futures price is 4420.0, the basis is 318.0, the basis rate is 7.19%, and the historical quantile is 5.10% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: The market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in Shandong market: converted to 100% is 2250.0, the futures price is 2219.0, the basis is 31.0, the basis rate is 1.40%, and the historical quantile is 48.50% [1]. - **LPG (PG2602)**: The market price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou region is 4478.0, the futures price is 447.0, the basis is 4031.0, the basis rate is 11.09%, and the historical quantile is 63.90% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2602)**: The market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong region is 2977.0, the futures price is 2920.0, the basis is 57.0, the basis rate is 1.91%, and the historical quantile is 40.00% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2602)**: The distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) of PetroChina East China is 10700.0, the futures price is 11175.0, the basis is - 475.0, the basis rate is - 4.25%, and the historical quantile is 2.90% [1]. - **Glass (FG605)**: The market price of float glass: 5mm: large plate: in Shahe: Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) is 1028.0, the futures price is 928.0, the basis is 100.0, the basis rate is 10.78%, and the historical quantile is 29.83% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: The market price of soda ash in Chongqing: in Shahe (daily) is 1175.0, the futures price is 1137.0, the basis is 38.0, the basis rate is 3.34%, and the historical quantile is 28.57% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: The Shanghai market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole latex) is 15290.0, the futures price is

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6][7] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices rose and then fell, with stable basis. Steel production and inventory reduction continued, but the inventory structure was still differentiated. The reduction in production supported steel prices, but weak demand limited upward momentum. Steel prices were expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coils in the 3150 - 3350 range. Hold 1 - 5 positive spreads for rebar, exit 5 - month coil - rebar spreads on dips, and consider long - position in the rebar - iron ore ratio on dips [1] Iron Ore Industry - In the short term, it was difficult to form a trend - based decline in iron ore supply - demand contradictions, and high inventory suppressed the price upside. With an increase in steel mill restarts, iron ore prices were expected to rebound slightly. It was recommended to trade the 05 contract within the 760 - 810 range [4][5] Coke Industry - Coke futures oscillated, and the third round of spot price cuts was implemented, with expectations of further cuts. Supply decreased due to pressure on coking profits, and demand weakened as steel mills increased maintenance. Overall inventory decreased slightly, and the supply - demand situation for coke weakened. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected rebound was unlikely to last. It was recommended to take profit on long positions in the J2605 contract [6] Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal futures continued to rebound, and spot auction prices showed mixed trends. Supply from mines improved slightly, but production might continue to decline at the end of the year. Imported coal inventory was increasing. Demand weakened as steel mills increased maintenance and coking profits declined. Overall inventory increased slightly. It was recommended to go long on the JM2605 contract on dips [6] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon futures oscillated, with increased hedging by manufacturers driving up spot prices. Supply decreased slightly, but demand from the steel - making industry continued to contract. Inventory remained high, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent. Prices were expected to fluctuate within the 5400 - 5650 range, and it was recommended to short on price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [7] - Ferromanganese futures oscillated, with the market in a relatively balanced state. Manganese ore provided some support for prices. The key factors were the reduction in production and the expected restocking by steel mills at the end of the year. Prices were expected to remain weak, but the downward space was limited [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions showed various changes, with some prices increasing, some remaining stable, and some decreasing [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and plate billet prices remained stable. Costs and profits of different steel - making processes and in different regions also had different changes [1] Production - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 1.1% to 226.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 1.0% to 798.0 tons. Rebar production increased by 1.6% to 181.7 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.4% to 291.9 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8% to 1294.8 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 5.6% to 452.5 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.6% to 390.7 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 18.8%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.5%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 2.7%, while that for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased by about 0.5%, and the 05 - contract basis of different powders also decreased slightly. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased by 0.5%, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price remained unchanged, and the Platts 62% Fe price increased slightly [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 2.8% to 2646.7 tons, and the global shipment volume decreased by 3.6% to 3464.5 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% to 11054.0 tons [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 1.8% to 313.5 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 4.9% and 3.0% respectively [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.8% to 15512.63 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 8724.0 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% to 21.0 days [4] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes, with the 01 and 05 contracts decreasing slightly. The coking profit increased slightly on a weekly basis [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and contracts also had different changes, with the 01 contract increasing by 2.7% and the 05 contract increasing by 1.0%. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1.5% on a weekly basis [6] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5% to 63.0 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3% to 46.5 tons [6] Demand - The pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 0.4% to 900.5 tons, with different changes in the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports [6] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 0.4 to - 0.2 tons, an increase of 88.1% [6] Coking Coal Industry Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with the Shanxi coking coal price remaining stable and the Mongolian coking coal price decreasing slightly [6] Overseas Coal Prices - Overseas coal prices showed various changes, with the FOB price of the same ship remaining unchanged and the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port increasing by 1.3% [6] Supply - The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 0.3% to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal production decreased by 0.1% to 438.2 tons [6] Demand - The coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5% to 63.0 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3% to 46.5 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The coking coal inventory showed various changes, with the clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increasing by 5.2%, and the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports showing different trends [6] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions increased slightly, with price increases of 0.4% - 0.6% [7] Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different changes, and the production profits also had different trends [7] Manganese Ore Supply - Manganese ore shipment volume decreased by 25.0% to 80.1 tons, arrival volume decreased by 3.4% to 74.8 tons, and desilting volume decreased by 8.6% to 59.2 tons [7] Manganese Ore Inventory - Manganese ore port inventory decreased by 0.7% to 448.3 tons [7] Production - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 6.1% to 10.0 tons, and the production rate decreased by 6.6% to 30.3%. Ferromanganese weekly production decreased by 0.5% to 188 tons, and the production rate decreased by 3.4% to 35.6% [7] Demand - Ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.5% to 18.8 tons, and ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.3% to 112 tons. The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.24%, and the blast furnace operation rate decreased by 0.24% [7] Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 16.3% to 65.7 tons, and the inventory - available days decreased by 2.5% to 15.4 days. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.74% to 38.5 tons, and the inventory - available days remained stable [7]

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年12月24日 | 最新值 | 全历史分位数 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | 9.80% | F期现价差 | -49.33 | -2.51 | 5.2096 | H期现价差 | -1.92 | -0.09 | 52 40% | 46.20% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | -123.59 | 11.40% | 1.40% | IC期现价差 | 8.87 | 10.0096 | 3.80% | IM期现价差 | -195.02 | -16.74 | 次月-当月 | -17.20 | -1.60 | 27.8096 | 26.20% | | | 零月-当月 | -27.4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It details the changes in total positions, the performance of the main contracts, and the significant changes in the top twenty seats for each type of futures [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - Total position significantly increased, with a rise of 7033 hands on December 23, and the main contract 2603's position increased by 5860 hands [1][6]. - Among the top twenty long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 45337 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest long - position increase of 2376 hands, while Guoxin Futures had the largest long - position decrease of 511 hands [6]. - Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 37772 hands. Guotou Futures had the largest short - position increase of 2884 hands, and Guoxin Futures had the largest short - position decrease of 417 hands [8]. IH (SSE 50) - Total position remained stable, with a decrease of 1324 hands on December 23, and the main contract 2603's position decreased by 668 hands [1][11]. - Among the top twenty long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 9138 hands. Dongzheng Futures had the largest long - position increase of 664 hands, and Everbright Futures had the largest long - position decrease of 453 hands [11]. - Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 13836 hands. Guotou Futures had the largest short - position increase of 468 hands, and Guotai Junan Futures had the largest short - position decrease of 559 hands [12]. IC (CSI 500) - Total position slightly decreased, with a decrease of 1024 hands on December 23, and the main contract 2603's position decreased by 2042 hands [1][17]. - Among the top twenty long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 40391 hands. Haitong Futures had the largest long - position increase of 562 hands, and CITIC Futures had the largest long - position decrease of 1355 hands [18]. - Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 42442 hands. JPMorgan Chase Futures had the largest short - position increase of 495 hands, and CITIC Futures had the largest short - position decrease of 1621 hands [20]. IM (CSI 1000) - Total position slightly increased, with a rise of 2002 hands on December 23, and the main contract 2603's position increased by 1396 hands [1][23]. - Among the top twenty long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 50408 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest long - position increase of 890 hands, and Everbright Futures had the largest long - position decrease of 323 hands [23]. - Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 70065 hands. Haitong Futures had the largest short - position increase of 953 hands, and CITIC Futures had the largest short - position decrease of 1448 hands [25].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View Supply - side, geopolitical tensions in Thailand and Cambodia have not eased, affecting local raw material supply, and domestic production areas are accelerating the suspension of production, so there is still support at the bottom of rubber prices. Demand - side, the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises will support overall capacity utilization, but enterprises will maintain production control in the short - term due to rising production and sales pressure. Market - side, considering the achievement of annual tasks, some agents still have moderate replenishment behavior, but it is the seasonal off - season, and actual market transactions are mainly for just - in - time needs. The market will continue to run weakly. Overall, rising port inventories and the off - season will limit the upside of rubber prices, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 23, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,850 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.34%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.64%. Other spot prices also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.00% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 1.40 to 478.60, a decrease of 0.29%; Indonesia's production decreased by 2.90 to 186.10, a decrease of 1.53%; India's production increased by 4.40 to 89.40, an increase of 5.18%; China's production decreased by 7.70 to 113.50. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires decreased by 0.18 to 71.39%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 0.07 to 64.14%. In November, domestic tire production increased by 387.70 to 10,182.80 million pieces, an increase of 3.96%, and tire export volume increased by 484.00 to 5,657.00, an increase of 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: On December 23, the bonded area inventory increased by 16,339 to 515,227 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 to 58,968 tons, a decrease of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View The market is trading the situation of high production in 2026 and weak reality. Polyolefins are being short - sold with increased positions. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to see a decline in costs and a compression of profits, and the price center will further decline. For PP, supply increases while demand decreases, the valuation of marginal devices remains low, and inventory decreases slightly. For PE, both supply and demand are weak, some full - density devices are switching from LLDPE to HDPE production, the marginal supply of standard products is decreasing, but prices are continuously falling, there is no speculative demand in the industry chain, and inventory has increased this week [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 23, the closing price of L2601 increased by 60 to 6,246 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.97%. The L15 spread increased by 4 to - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.41% [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia increased by 20 to 6,020 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The North China LL basis decreased by 20 to - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00% [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE devices decreased by 0.25 to 83.9%, a decrease of 0.30%. The weighted operating rate of PE downstream decreased by 0.55 to 42.5%, a decrease of 1.28% [4]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 1.72 to 48.8 tons, an increase of 3.65%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 53.71 to 0.0 tons, a decrease of 100.00% [4]. Group 3: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View On December 23, methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. In the port area, although the arrival volume in December is still high, due to gas restrictions and device failures in Iran, the import volume in the far - term is expected to decrease significantly. Although there is still inventory accumulation pressure in December, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. In the inland area, the transfer price in Inner Mongolia has decreased. The supply side will maintain production due to the recovery of enterprise profits from falling coal prices. The demand side will see a slight recovery in traditional downstream operating rates and new MTO capacity put into operation. The inland supply - demand pattern is expected to stabilize, and prices will mainly fluctuate narrowly [6][7]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 23, the closing price of MA2601 increased by 14 to 2,130 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.66%. The MA15 spread increased by 13 to - 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.33% [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.83 to 39.114 tons, an increase of 10.86%. Methanol port inventory decreased by 1.56 to 121.9 tons, a decrease of 1.26% [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.99 to 77.63%, an increase of 1.29%. The operating rate of externally - purchased MTO devices increased by 1.51 to 86%, an increase of 1.79% [6]. Group 4: PX - PTA - MEG - Polyester Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **PX**: In the short - term, without obvious negatives and with the support of geopolitics, PX may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern was tight from November to December, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Strategies include reducing positions on rallies, not chasing high prices, taking a long - position in the medium - term at low prices, and a positive spread for TA5 - 9 at low levels. - **MEG**: Supply is still abundant, and the supply - demand outlook is weak. It is expected to run weakly in the short - term. Strategies include a bearish spread for EG5 - 9 and holding the seller of EG2605 - C - 4100. - **Short - fiber**: Supply remains high, demand is seasonally weak, and prices are driven by raw materials. Strategies are the same as PTA, and short - fiber processing fees should be shorted on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: On December 23, the spot price of PX in RMB increased by 19 to 7,363 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.3%. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 22 to 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.4% [8]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA spot price increased by 70 to 4,955 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.4%. The PTA05 - PTA09 spread increased by 4 to 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.3% [8]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The EG2605 futures price decreased by 112 to 3,623 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.0%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 16 to - 81 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.6% [8]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The price of polyester chips increased by 15 to 5,630 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.3%. The cash flow of POY150/48 increased by 7 to - 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4% [8]. Group 5: Glass - Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, demand has shrunk overall, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Prices will continue to fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to short on rallies after the technical rebound of the futures. - **Glass**: Spot prices are under pressure, demand in the north has weakened significantly, and there are concerns about future demand. The futures market is also under pressure. The 01 contract will continue the delivery logic in December, and the 05 contract is expected to be weak before positive drivers appear [9]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On December 23, the North China glass quotation decreased by 10 to 1,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97%. The 01 basis of glass decreased by 17 to 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.17% [9]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The North China soda ash quotation remained unchanged at 1,300 yuan/ton. The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 8 to 183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.19% [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 to 82.74%. Soda ash plant inventory increased by 0.5 to 149.93 tons, an increase of 0.33% [9]. Group 6: PVC - Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure on supply and demand. Although some regions have inventory reduction and downstream procurement enthusiasm, inventory levels are still high. Prices are expected to be bearish next week, especially in the East China region where supply is expected to increase. - **PVC**: The futures market is boosted by the macro - environment, but demand is weak. It is in the traditional off - season, and both domestic and export demand are poor. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and price rebounds are limited [10]. Summary by Directory - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: On December 23, the market price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 80 to 4,420 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.8%. The SH2605 futures price increased by 35 to 2,324 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.5% [10]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The FOB price of East China ports remained unchanged at 370 US dollars/ton. The export profit increased by 76.2 to 251.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 43.4% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 to 88.5%. The operating rate of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased by 3.7 to 31.4%, a decrease of 10.5% [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 1.4 to 22.7 tons, a decrease of 5.7%. PVC total social inventory decreased by 0.7 to 51.1 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [10]. Group 7: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View On December 23, international crude oil continued to rise. Tensions between the US and Venezuela may escalate, and the Russia - Ukraine situation remains uncertain, which will continue to affect crude oil prices. Although inventory data has not improved, the demand for refined oil products is expected to pick up during the Western holidays. Overall, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars/barrel, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [11]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 23, Brent crude oil increased by 0.31 to 62.38 US dollars/barrel, a growth rate of 0.50%. The Brent M1 - M3 spread increased by 0.06 to 0.84 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 7.69% [11]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The NYM RBOB price increased by 0.10 to 174.32 US cents/gallon, a growth rate of 0.06%. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 0.34 to - 3.15 US cents/gallon, a decrease of 12.10% [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.33 to 14.83 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.16%. The US diesel crack spread increased by 0.99 to 33.63 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.05% [11]. Group 8: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. Spring maintenance plans are being introduced, and with the support of rising oil prices, the downside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,300 - 5,600 yuan/ton. - **Styrene**: As industry profits recover, supply has increased. But demand is weakening as downstream industries are in the off - season and losses are expanding. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upside of prices is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6,300 - 6,700 yuan/ton [13]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 23, the price of Brent crude oil (February) increased by 1.91 to 62.38 US dollars/barrel, a growth rate of 3.2%. The pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 2 to 124 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.6% [13]. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by 60 to 6,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 1 to - 57 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.7% [13]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.3 to 27.30 tons, an increase of 5.0%. The operating rate of styrene increased by 1.0 to 69.1%, an increase of 1.5% [13]. Group 9: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View Urea futures prices are rising, but spot prices are stable, and the market is mainly fulfilling previous orders. On the supply side, although the operating rate has decreased slightly due to some gas - based device shutdowns, daily production remains at a relatively high level, and supply pressure will increase after the resumption of some devices. On the demand side, agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weakening. Coal prices support urea prices from the cost side. In the short - term, the futures rebound is mainly driven by export expectations, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand weakness will dominate prices. Urea prices are expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to whether the futures main contract can hold above 1,730 yuan/ton, as well as device resumption and downstream demand [14]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 23, the 01 contract of urea futures increased by 10 to 1,649 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.61%. The 01 contract - 0

| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 壬洋辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年12月24日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田阳 | 12月23日 | 12月22日 | 张跌幅 | 张跃 | | | | | | | | | 8320 | 8320 | 0 | 0.00% | 现价 | 江苏一级 | Y2605 | 7994 | 8002 | -8 | -0.10% | 期价 | | 甚差 | Y2605 | 326 | 318 | 8 | 2.52% | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏5月 | 05 + 500 | 05 +500 | 0 | ﺗ | | 28264 | 仓单 | 26264 | 2000 | 7.61% | 标相温 | | | | | | | | 12月23日 | 12月22日 | 张跌幅 | 涨跌 | 8370 | 8270 | 100 | 1.21% | ...

| 集运产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月23日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 集运指数 | | | | | | | 结算价指数 | 12月22日 | 12月15日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SCFIS (欧洲航线) | 1589.20 | 1510.56 | 78.6 | 5.21% | 点 | | SCFIS (美西航线) | 952.10 | 924.36 | 27.7 | 3.00% | | | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 12月19日 | 12月12日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SCFI综合指数 | 1506.46 | 1397.63 | 108.8 | 7.79% | 点 | | SCFI (欧洲) | 1533 | 1538 | -5.0 | -0.33% | 美元/TEU | | SCFI (美西) | 1992 | 1780 | 212.0 | 11.91% | 美元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel maintains production cuts and inventory reduction, with the production dropping by 6.7% from the high level. The inventory reduction is decent under the impact of production cuts, but the inventory structure is still differentiated. Rebar has better inventory reduction and runs at a relatively low inventory level, while hot-rolled coil has slow inventory reduction after production cuts and maintains a year-on-year high inventory pattern. Production cuts support steel prices, and combined with the stabilization of coking coal prices, steel prices repair upwards from the low level, but the demand is weak and the upward driving force is insufficient. Overall, it is judged to maintain a range-bound trend. It is expected that rebar will remain in the range of 3000 - 3200, and hot-rolled coil will remain in the range of 3150 - 3350. Rebar maintains good inventory reduction, and the 1 - 5 positive spread can continue to be held. The acceleration of plate production cuts is expected to accelerate the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coil, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar in May should be exited at low prices. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is still weak. In May, iron ore rises to repair the discount. Considering the low level of hot metal, one can try to go long on the ratio of rebar to iron ore at low prices [1]. Iron Ore - Yesterday, the 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, showing weakness when rising. The spot price was basically stable compared with the previous trading day, and buyers were cautious. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipments in this period decreased slightly month-on-month but still remained at a high level in the same period of history. The year-end volume rush by the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and the absolute value was at a high level in the same period of history. According to the shipment calculation, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. On the demand side, the hot metal production continued to decline month-on-month, and the overall level dropped to a relatively low level in history. How to digest the hot-rolled coil inventory and the resilience of off-season demand will determine the downward space of hot metal. Based on the current hot-rolled coil inventory and the historical inventory-to-sales ratio, the downward space of hot metal is relatively limited. In terms of inventory, the inventory on Monday increased significantly month-on-month. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level, the port clearance volume will decline under production cuts, and iron ore will still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern, but the marginal inventory accumulation space will be less than before. The subsequent BHP negotiation results will determine when to trade the high-inventory contradiction. Looking forward to the future, the key lies in the BHP negotiation situation, the hot metal trend, and the steel mill restocking expectation. In the short term, it is difficult for the iron ore supply - demand contradiction to form a trend of decline, and there is obvious suppression from high inventory above the price. It is expected to maintain a range-bound trend, with the range referring to 730 - 820. Strategically, it is recommended to mainly conduct short - term operations in the range of the 05 contract and try to short at around 800 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures rebounded, rising during the night session and then falling back. On the spot side, the third round of price cuts for coke landed on December 22, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. The port price fell in advance and is currently stable. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market showed mixed trends, and the auction prices of various coal types showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding. Coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, putting pressure on coking profits and leading to a decline in production. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, the hot metal production declined, the steel price oscillated at a low level, and there was a willingness to suppress the coke price. In terms of inventory, coking plants accumulated inventory, while ports and steel mills reduced inventory. The overall inventory decreased slightly in the middle position, and the coke supply - demand weakened. The coke futures fell in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the decline space of coking coal. Strategically, there is an expectation of a short - term rebound, and one can go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices (starting from the J2604 contract, the delivery deduction price for wet - quenched coke is 110 yuan/ton) [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures continued to rebound, rising during the night session and then falling back. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal turned to mixed trends, and the Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with the futures. Recently, the auction failure rate began to decline, and the trading improved. Traders restocked cautiously, and the thermal coal market continued to decline. On the supply side, coal mine shipments worsened, the daily output decreased slightly, coal mines accumulated inventory again due to unsalable products, and the coal mine output may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imports, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with the futures. Mines rushed to ship at the end - year high - clearance level. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, the hot metal production declined, coking profits declined, production started slightly, and the market's restocking demand weakened as it declined. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants and coking enterprises reduced inventory, while coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports increased inventory. The overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. Policy - wise, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants remains the main tone, and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission requires central enterprises to consciously resist "involution - style" competition. Strategically, there is an expectation of a short - term rebound, and one can go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures oscillated. On the supply side, the ferrosilicon production decline widened last week, and the production increase was mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Qinghai. Manufacturers' losses continued to deepen, and they tried to relieve the supply - demand contradiction through passive production cuts and conversions. In terms of steel demand, the hot metal production continued to decline month - on - month. The inventory contradiction of steel plates was somewhat relieved, but the inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level. The hot metal will continue to reduce production, and the downward space may be limited. In the short term, the ferrosilicon demand in steelmaking will maintain a contraction pattern. In terms of non - steel demand, the ferrosilicon spot price stopped falling and stabilized, stimulating some restocking demand, but downstream buyers had a low acceptance of high prices. The metal magnesium supply did not decrease, supporting the ferrosilicon demand. In terms of exports, overseas is approaching Christmas, and the export order transactions are okay, but the acceptance of high prices is insufficient. In addition, the re - export trade from Russia and North Korea still has an impact. On the cost side, the semi - coking coal price decreased slightly, and the price in cost - advantageous areas was relatively competitive. Looking forward to the future, the ferrosilicon supply - demand contradiction still needs to be resolved, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. However, the subsequent demand improvement expectation is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. The production cuts have already digested the price impact, and attention should be paid to the semi - coking coal price fluctuations. In the short term, it is expected that the price will oscillate in a range, with the range referring to 6400 - 5650 [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: Yesterday, the main contract of ferromanganese futures oscillated. On the supply side, the production in the main production areas decreased slightly month - on - month. Production in cost - advantageous areas was relatively stable, and there was still an expectation of new capacity release in some areas in Inner Mongolia recently. The two major production areas maintained production cuts and maintenance. On the demand side, the hot metal production declined month - on - month. The high - inventory contradiction of hot - rolled coils still has room for production cuts, but it is relatively limited after calculation. The overall steelmaking demand will maintain a contraction trend, and steel mills have a strong tendency to suppress prices. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still remained at a high level. The insufficient production cut strength led to a limited month - on - month decline in inventory, and the supply - demand contradiction was still prominent. On the cost side, the manganese ore price was firm. Some foreign mines' quotes for January increased, and the electricity price remained stable. In the short term, manganese ore provided certain cost support. Overall, ferromanganese is in a state of oversupply in its own market but relatively balanced in the overall market. The manganese ore provides certain support for the ferromanganese price. The subsequent key lies in the production cut amplitude and the raw material restocking expectation of steel mills during the year - end winter storage. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has been priced in, and there is no clear signal for a trend - like rebound. It is expected that the price will still run weakly in the future, but the trend - like decline is limited. Strategically, one can consider short - term operations, trying to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions remained stable or slightly decreased, while futures prices increased slightly [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained stable. The cost of steel production in some regions increased slightly, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in some regions improved, while the profit of rebar in some regions also improved [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production and the production of five major steel products decreased. The rebar production increased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil production decreased significantly. The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil decreased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building material trading volume increased, while the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased slightly. The apparent demand for rebar increased, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types were basically stable or slightly decreased, and the basis of the 05 contract and the spreads between different contracts decreased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ores at Rizhao Port and some price indexes were basically stable or slightly decreased [4]. Supply and Demand - The arrival volume and global shipments of iron ore decreased, and the demand indicators such as hot metal production, port clearance volume, and national pig iron and crude steel production decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased, the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke prices showed a downward trend, with some contracts rising slightly. Coking coal prices were relatively stable, with some varieties showing small fluctuations [6]. Supply - Coke production decreased, and coking coal production from sample mines decreased slightly [6]. Demand - The demand for coke, mainly from hot metal production, decreased. The demand for coking coal was affected by the decline in coke production [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased slightly overall, with different trends among coking plants, ports, and steel mills. The coking coal inventory increased slightly overall, with different trends in different sectors [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Spot Price and Spread - The main contract prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese increased slightly. The spot prices of ferrosilicon were basically stable, and the spot prices of ferromanganese increased slightly in some regions [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit improved. The manganese ore price was firm, providing certain cost support for ferromanganese [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased, and the ferromanganese production in the main areas decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking decreased due to the decline in hot metal production [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, but the inventory level was still relatively high [7].