| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询 务 【2011】1292号 2025年12月19日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | O | 0.00% | | | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 730 | 835 | -105 | -12.57% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9650 | 9650 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差 (SI4210基准) | 380 | 485 | -105 | -21.65% | 元/吨 | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1080 | 1185 | -105 | -8.86% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合钩 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations on various futures varieties, including trends, trading suggestions, and price ranges for each variety [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2601): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Plastic (12605): Expected to show a weak trend [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to rebound from the bottom [3] - Rapeseed Oil (01605): Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - PT2606/PD: Suggest buying on dips [3] Full Variety Daily Reviews Stock Index - The dividend sector rose against the market, and the A - share style is defensive. The market lacks upward momentum due to the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike expectation, and the downside space is also limited. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously. Short - term market trends may be dominated by year - end performance - chasing trading demands, and it is advisable to view the market as volatile and trade quickly if participating [3] Treasury Bonds - There are both positive factors and profit - taking demands, and the bond futures are expected to fluctuate slightly higher. It is recommended to pay attention to the central bank's MLF injection and end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider the market as range - bound. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the 2603 contract and the opportunity to widen the basis [3] Precious Metals - Gold prices are still inhibited in upward momentum but remain strongly volatile. It is recommended to hold long positions. Silver may enter the overbought range, and it is advisable to wait and see. Platinum and palladium may correct in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Steel - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The rebar in May should be watched in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan, and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3350 yuan [3] Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 730 - 800 [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 1000 - 1200 [3] Coke - Coke is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 1500 - 1650 [3] Copper - It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the support at 90000 - 91000 [3] Alumina - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2450 - 2700. Short - term traders can go long on dips [3] Aluminum - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21700 - 22400. It is recommended to go long on dips [3] Aluminum Alloy - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20700 - 21400. It is recommended to go long on AD03 and short on AL03 for arbitrage [3] Zinc - Pay attention to the support at 22850 - 22950, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] Tin - Hold existing long positions and buy on dips [3] Nickel - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 114000 - 118000 [3] Stainless Steel - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12500 - 13000 [3] Industrial Silicon - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] Polysilicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to wait and see [3] Lithium Carbonate - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 98,000 - 102,000. Reduce long positions [3] PX - Conduct rolling low - buying operations [3] PTA - Conduct rolling low - buying operations and low - level positive arbitrage between TA5 - 9 [3] Short - Fiber - The operation is the same as PTA. Compress the processing fee on the disk when it is high [3] Bottle Chips - Sell PR2602 - P - 5500 on rallies. The processing fee on the main contract is expected to be strong in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [3] Ethanol - Sell EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies to obtain time value [3] Pure Benzene - It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] Styrene - It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [3] Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: Wait and see [3] - PP: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [3] - MA: Narrow the MTO of the 05 contract [3] - Caustic Soda: Be bearish [3] - PVC: Be bearish on the rebound [3] - Soda Ash: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3] - Glass: Wait and see [3] - Natural Rubber: Wait and see [3] - Synthetic Rubber: Pay attention to the pressure at around 11200 for BR2602 [3] Grains and Oils -粕类: Narrow - range adjustment [3] - Live Pigs: In a bottom - grinding market [3] - Corn: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Vegetable Oils: The decline has slowed down. The P main contract may test the support at 8200 - 8300 in the short - term [3] - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Cotton: Pay attention to the resistance at around 14050 - 14100 [3] - Eggs: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Apples: It is recommended to exit long positions opportunistically [3] - Red Dates: Buy low and sell high [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including futures, stocks, bonds, and commodities. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements for each sector, offering trading strategies based on the analysis [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory [Daily精选] - Tin: Fundamentals remain strong, with tight tin ore supply and stable demand in some sectors. Prices are expected to remain strong, suggesting a long - position strategy [2]. - LLDPE: Linear in North China is near the risk - free basis. Supply is increasing, and downstream demand has reached its peak. Attention should be paid to the replenishment of the industrial chain [3]. - Coking Coal: The futures rebounded, with spot prices fluctuating. Supply may decrease at the end of the year, and demand is weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [4]. - Oils and Fats: The decline of vegetable oils has slowed due to rising crude oil prices. Palm oil export is weak, while soybean oil may be boosted by crude oil, and rapeseed oil may find support in a certain price range [5]. - Platinum and Palladium: Fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. In the short term, there may be a correction, and a buy - on - dip strategy is recommended [7]. [Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures] - The stock market showed a defensive style, with the dividend sector rising. The four major stock index futures contracts declined. The market lacks an upward driving force, and a cautious waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [9][10][11]. [Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Bond Futures] - Bond futures closed mostly higher. The central bank's operations have made the capital market loose. There are both positive factors and profit - taking demands. A short - term shock - based strategy is recommended [12][13]. [Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals] - Precious metals rose and then fell. US inflation slowed down, and European monetary policies diverged. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, silver to wait and see, and platinum and palladium to buy on dips [14][17][18]. [Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line)] - The SCFIS European line index showed a mixed trend. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19]. [Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper] - Copper prices are oscillating. The probability of interest rate cuts has slightly increased, and inventories are accumulating. A short - term waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [20][24]. - Alumina: The spot price is falling, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. A short - term long - position strategy for bargain - hunting is recommended [25][27]. - Aluminum: The CPI data has strengthened the interest - rate cut logic. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and a long - position strategy for bargain - hunting is recommended [27][30]. - Aluminum Alloy: The social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [33][34]. - Zinc: The zinc price is oscillating. The supply is gradually tightening, and the demand is stable. A short - term waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended, and a cross - market reverse arbitrage position should be held [34][37]. - Tin: The fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to remain strong. A long - position strategy is recommended [38][41]. - Nickel: The low valuation and news have driven the price to rebound. The price is expected to oscillate and repair, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 114,000 - 118,000 [41][44]. - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [45][47]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing slowly. A short - term wide - range oscillation strategy is recommended [49][52]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has fallen due to the expected increase in warehouse receipts. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [53]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is oscillating and rising. The supply and demand are weak, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [54][55]. [Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - Steel] - Steel prices are oscillating within a range. The cost is stable, the supply is decreasing, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [56][57]. - Iron Ore: The futures price rebounded. The supply is increasing, the demand is decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating. A long - position strategy for the 2605 contract and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy are recommended [58][60]. - Coking Coal: The futures price rebounded. The supply may decrease at the end of the year, and the demand is weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [61][64]. - Coke: The futures price rebounded. The second - round price cut has been implemented, and the supply and demand are weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [65][66]. [Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - Meal] - The spot price of soybean meal is falling, and the supply pressure is still there. The price of rapeseed meal is stable, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [67][69]. - Live Pigs: The supply pressure is limited, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the development of the epidemic [70][72]. - Corn: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating downward. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [73][74]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended [76][77]. - Cotton: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price rise has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the resistance level [77][78]. - Eggs: The egg price is mostly stable, and the supply is still abundant. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [80][81]. - Oils and Fats: The decline of vegetable oils has slowed due to rising crude oil prices. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to support levels [82][85]. - Red Dates: The downward trend has slowed, and the price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to consumption and inventory [86]. - Apples: The price is oscillating downward. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. A long - position liquidation strategy is recommended [87]. [Commodity Futures - Energy Chemicals - PX] - PX prices are rising. The short - term upward driving force is limited, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. A rolling long - position strategy is recommended [88][89]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in December and loose in the first quarter. A rolling long - position strategy and a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage strategy are recommended [90][91]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw materials. A strategy similar to PTA and a short - position strategy for high processing fees are recommended [92][93]. - Bottle Chip: The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee is supported. Attention should be paid to device restarts and new device production [94][95]. - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic supply is shrinking, but the long - term supply - demand is weak. A short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and an option - selling strategy is recommended [96]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [97][98]. - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price driving force is limited. A short - term weak - oscillation strategy is recommended [99][100]. - LLDPE: The North China basis is near the risk - free level. The supply is increasing, and the demand has reached its peak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [101]. - PP: The supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. Attention should be paid to the profit of PDH [102]. - Methanol: The spot and basis are both strengthening. The overseas supply is decreasing, and the domestic supply and demand are increasing. A strategy of paying attention to the narrowing of MTO05 is recommended [102][103]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pressure remains, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be weak [103][105]. - PVC: The price has rebounded due to news. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. A short - position strategy on rebounds is recommended [106]. - Soda Ash: The production is high, and the supply is excessive. A short - position strategy on rebounds is recommended [107][109]. - Glass: The spot price has stopped falling, and there is no continuous upward driving force. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [107][109]. - Natural Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The supply and demand are in a stalemate [109][111]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost has fallen, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 11,200 [111][114].

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月19日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月18日 | 12月17日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 772.5 | 765.0 | 7.5 | 0.98% | | | 原木2603 | 778.0 | 769.0 | 9.0 | 1.17% | | | 原木2605 | 785.0 | 778.5 | 6.5 | 0.83% | | | 01-03价差 | -5.5 | -4.0 | -1.5 | | | | 01-05价差 | -12.5 | -13.5 | 1.0 | | | | 03合约基差 | -38.0 | -29.0 | -9.0 | | | | 01合约基差 | -32.5 | -25.0 | -7.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - **Spreads**: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - **Spreads and Positions**: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass and Soda Ash Prices**: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - **Real Estate Data**: Some real - estate data changed [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Apple**: The overall performance of apple-producing areas is sluggish, with the off - season of consumption and high prices suppressing demand. Only the high - quality goods in Gansu have a decent sales speed. It is recommended to close long positions opportunistically [6]. - **Jujube**: The arrival of goods in the jujube sales area is high, but the trading volume is mediocre. The futures price is weak, and the basis is strengthening. If the trading volume picks up during the peak consumption season, it may boost the futures price. Future attention should be paid to the inventory level after the Spring Festival, the planting area in 2026, and early - stage weather forecasts [8]. - **Fats and Oils**: For palm oil, the weak export of Malaysian palm oil restricts its rebound. For soybean oil, although the domestic supply is sufficient, the inventory is expected to decrease due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. For rapeseed oil, the futures price is affected by the movement of crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to whether the rapeseed oil 05 contract can stop falling in the range of 8900 - 9000 yuan [10]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures hit a more than one - month low due to a strong US dollar and a loose supply outlook. The drought in Brazil has improved, which is beneficial for the next sugar - cane season. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain weak due to increased supply [13]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to short - covering. US cotton exports are in a volatile situation. The domestic cotton market has an optimistic long - term outlook but faces short - term constraints from the weak downstream industry. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100 [15]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is gradually rising from a low level. The supply of eggs is still sufficient, and the market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern [17]. - **Meal and Beans**: US soybeans are under downward pressure due to weak demand and a strong harvest expectation in South America. The domestic soybean meal market is in a loose situation, and the long - short spread has limited upward space [19]. - **Corn**: The corn spot market is dull. The market sentiment is loose due to policy auctions and the expectation of increased grain sales. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [22]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is stable, and the southern curing demand provides support. The futures price is under pressure from short - selling. The market may continue to bottom out, and attention should be paid to the development of the epidemic and the potential entry of second - fattening pigs [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of apple 2605 is at 9068 yuan/ton, down 0.59%. The arrival volume at several fruit markets has increased, and the national cold - storage inventory is 752.98 million tons, down 0.73% [1]. - **Regional Cold - Storage Inventory**: Shandong accounts for 33% with 248.36 million tons, Shaanxi 28% with 212.45 million tons, and Gansu 16% with 117.27 million tons [5]. Jujube - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of jujube 2605 is at 8915 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The prices of Cangzhou's spot jujubes have declined to varying degrees, and the basis is strengthening [8]. Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: The export of Malaysian palm oil in December is weak. China's palm oil imports in November reached a yearly high, suppressing the increase of domestic palm oil futures [10]. - **Soybean Oil**: US soybean exports to China are slower than expected, and the South American soybean harvest is expected to be bountiful. The domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but the inventory is expected to decrease [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price is affected by the movement of crude oil prices. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and the basis has a narrow range of fluctuations [10]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of sugar 2605 is at 5102 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. ICE raw sugar is at 14.47 cents/pound, down 1.96%. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming have declined [12]. - **Industry Data**: The national sugar production and sales have decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has also declined [12]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of cotton 2605 is at 13960 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The spot prices are relatively stable, and the basis has declined [15]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory has increased by 28.7% month - on - month, and the import volume has increased by 33.3% [15]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The egg 01 contract is at 3067 yuan/500KG, down 0.81%. The egg - producing area price is at 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.24% [17]. - **Industry Data**: The egg - chicken苗 price has decreased by 1.75%, and the breeding profit is - 22.62 yuan/feather, down 4.64% [17]. Meal and Beans - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is stable at 3100 yuan/ton, and the M2605 contract is at 2747 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is at 2400 yuan/ton, down 0.41%, and the RM2605 contract is at 2340 yuan/ton, up 0.39% [19]. - **Import and Processing Profits**: The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's soybean meal import and processing profit is up 4.6%, and the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's rapeseed meal import and processing profit is up 6.72% [19]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The corn 2603 contract is at 2190 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The corn starch 2603 contract is at 2493 yuan/ton, down 0.28% [22]. - **Market Situation**: The supply and demand of the corn market are relatively balanced in the short term, but the market sentiment is affected by policy auctions and the expected increase in grain sales [22]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of pigs 2605 is at 11880 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The spot prices in various regions have increased to varying degrees [26]. - **Industry Data**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses is 239692, up 3.34%, and the number of fertile sows is 39900000, down 1.12% [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the report Summary by Categories Black Series - 72 silicon - iron qualified blocks: The price in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5592, up 0.29% and 57.10% compared to some reference [1] - 6517 silicon - manganese: Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipts price data is presented with a 5.60% increase and other related data [1] - HRB400 20mm rebar in Shanghai (RB2605): The spot price is 3277, up 0.09%, and the futures price and other relevant data are provided [1] - Q235B 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in Shanghai (HC2605): There is a 19.60% change in relevant data [1] - 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port (iron ore 12605): The spot price is 849, down 1.41%, and there are other related data [1] - Quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke A13, S0.7, CSR60, MT7 at Rizhao Port (J2601): The price and related information are given [1] - S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi (JM2605): The spot price is 1127, and there are other data about price changes and historical quantiles [1] Non - ferrous Series - Copper (CU2602): The spot price is 92600, the futures price is 92240, and the basis is - 360 with a basis rate of - 0.39% and a historical quantile of 17.50% [1] - Aluminum (AL2602): The spot price is 21955, the futures price is 21730, and relevant data such as basis and basis rate are provided [1] - Alumina (AO2601): There are price and related data including a historical quantile of 79.51% [1] - Zinc (ZN2601): The spot price is 23030, the futures price is 23060, and other relevant information is given [1] - Tin (SN2601): The spot price is 332000, and relevant price - related data are presented [1] - Nickel (NISEOJ): The spot price is 113940, and there are data about basis and historical quantiles [1] - Stainless steel (SS2602): The spot price is 12920, the futures price is 12420, and relevant data are provided [1] - Lithium carbonate (LC2605): The spot price is 106160, down 8.11%, and other data are given [1] - Industrial silicon (215605): There is a 6.42% change in relevant data [1] Precious Metal Series - Gold (AU2602): The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's AU (T + D) is 974.7, the futures price is 980.5, and relevant basis and basis rate data are presented [1] - Silver (AG2602): The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's AG (T + D) is 15463.0, the futures price is 15521.0, and relevant data are provided [1] Agricultural Products Series - Soybean meal (M2605): The spot price is 2747.0, and relevant price and basis data are given with a historical quantile of 68.50% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2605): The spot price is 7802.0, and relevant price - related data are presented [1] - Palm oil (P2605): The spot price is 8368.0, and relevant data are provided [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM605): The spot price and relevant data are given [1] - Rapeseed oil (Ol605): The spot price is 9420, and relevant data are presented [1] - Corn (C2603): The spot price is 2290, and relevant price - related data are given [1] - Corn starch (CS2601): The spot price is 2499.0, and relevant data are provided [1] - Live pigs (H2603): The spot price is 11325.0, and relevant price - related data are presented [1] - Eggs (JD2602): The spot price is 3020, and relevant data are given [1] - Cotton (CF605): The spot price is 14978, and relevant data are provided [1] - Sugar (SR605): The spot price is 5102.0, and relevant data are presented [1] - Apples (AP605): The spot price is 9000, and relevant data are given [1] - Red dates (CJ605): The spot price is 8500, and relevant data are presented [1] Energy and Chemical Series - p - Xylene (PX603): The spot price is 6818.0, the futures price is 6862.0, and relevant data are provided [1] - PTA (TA605): The spot price is 4748.0, and relevant data are presented [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2605): The spot price is 3645.0, and relevant data are provided [1] - Polyester staple fiber (PF602): The spot price is 6280.0, and relevant data are presented [1] - Styrene (EB2602): The spot price is 6495.0, and relevant data are provided [1] - Methanol (MA605): The spot price is 2174.0, and relevant data are presented [1] - Urea (UR605): The spot price is 1710.0, and relevant data are provided [1] - LLDPE (L2605): The spot price is 6476.0, and relevant data are presented [1] - PP (PP2605): The spot price is 6279.0, and relevant data are provided [1] - PVC (V2605): The spot price is 4708.0, and relevant data are presented [1] - Caustic soda (SH603): The spot price is 2250.0, and relevant data are presented [1] - LPG (PG2602): The spot price is 4528.0, and relevant data are presented [1] - Asphalt (BU2602): The spot price is 2952.0, and relevant data are provided [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2602): The spot price is 10700.0, and relevant data are presented [1] - Glass (FG605): The spot price is 936.0, and relevant data are provided [1] - Soda ash (SA605): The spot price is 1147.0, and relevant data are presented [1] - Natural rubber (RU2605): The spot price is 15320.0, and relevant data are provided [1] Financial Series - IF2512.CFE: The spot price is 4550.4, the futures price is 4552.8, and relevant data are provided [1] - IH2512.CFE: The spot price is 2995.0, and relevant data are provided [1] - IC2512.CFE: The spot price is 7100.8, and relevant data are provided [1] - IM2512.CFE: The spot price is 7272.4, the futures price is 7275.4, and relevant data are provided [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2603): The spot price is 102.45, and relevant data are provided [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2603): The spot price is 105.87, and relevant data are provided [1] - 10 - year bond (T2603): The spot price is 108.04, and relevant data are provided [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2603): The spot price is 127.02, and relevant data are provided [1]

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2512 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信多空头各减仓超 3000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2512 | 总持仓明显下降 | 前二十席位减仓为主 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2512 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信多空头均减仓逾 1000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2512 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信多空头均减仓 7000 手以上 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -24,245.0 -11,717.0 -22,568.0 -35,409.0 -7,327.0 -8,002.0 -8,257.0 -18,274.0 -40,000 -35,000 -30,000 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views The reports mainly present the latest data and changes in various futures markets, including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping index futures, without explicitly stating a unified core view. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Difference Data**: On December 19, 2025, the IF spot - futures price difference was -2.39, with a change of -0.72 from the previous day; the IH spot - futures price difference was -3.52, with a change of 0.96; the IC spot - futures price difference was 0.16, with a change of -8.80; the IM spot - futures price difference was 3.00, with a change of -1.12. Different cross - period price differences and cross - variety ratios also showed corresponding changes and percentile positions [1]. Bond Futures - **Basis and Price Difference Data**: On December 18, 2025, the TS basis was 1.6446, with a change of -0.0070; the TF basis was 1.6650, with a change of -0.0545; the T basis was 1.7139, with a change of -0.0421; the TL basis was 1.5917, with a change of 0.4139. Various cross - period price differences and cross - variety price differences also had corresponding changes and percentile positions [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Price Data**: On December 19, 2025, domestic futures closing prices showed that the AU2602 contract was 980.50 yuan/gram, up 0.08%; the AG2602 contract was 15521 yuan/kilogram, up 0.06%. Foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions also had corresponding changes [3]. Container Shipping Index Futures - **Index and Price Data**: On December 19, 2025, the SCFIS (European route) settlement price index was 1510.56, up 0.10%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 924.36, down 3.76%. Futures prices such as EC2602 (main contract) decreased, and the basis (main contract) was -158.0, with a change of 31.2. Fundamental data on capacity supply, foreign trade - related indicators, overseas economy, and OECD leading indicators also showed corresponding changes [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the reports [1][3][4] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations. The current decline in steel apparent demand restrains the upward price drive, but steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction provide bottom - end support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is gradually weakening, with the iron ore valuation under pressure. The strategy is to go long on the Iron Ore 2605 contract when the price is low and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industries - Both the coke and coking coal futures markets have shown over - decline. The short - term strategy is to bet on a rebound and go long on the Coke 2605 and Coking Coal 2605 contracts when the price is low [4] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Steel prices generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3280 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar increased from 3084 yuan/ton to 3125 yuan/ton. The basis of steel weakened [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel production increased, such as the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar rising by 5 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coils decreased, with the profit in East China dropping from - 24 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output slightly increased by 0.1%, while the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.0%. The rebar output increased by 1.6%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, the rebar inventory decreased by 5.6%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.6% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.8%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.5%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 2.7%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types increased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder rising from 834.8 yuan/ton to 842.5 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis of most iron ore types decreased [3] Supply - The global iron ore shipping volume increased by 6.6% week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 9.8%. However, the national monthly import volume decreased by 4.3% [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2%, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.4%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased by 4.9% and 3.0% respectively [3] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.3%, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.7%, and the available inventory days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industries Coke - Coke futures showed a strong rebound during the day and oscillated at night. The second round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 12, and there is still an expectation of further cuts in the short term. The supply side has a delayed adjustment in coke prices compared to coking coal, and the demand side is affected by steel mill losses and reduced pig iron output [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal futures had a strong rebound during the day and oscillated at night. The spot auction prices of coking coal became mixed, and the supply side faced issues such as poor coal mine shipments and a slight decrease in daily output. The demand side was affected by steel mill losses and reduced pig iron output [4]