Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices stabilized, while futures prices rose and then fell. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may reach 10000 yuan/ton; if polysilicon production cuts are large and industrial silicon production cuts fall short of expectations, the price may drop to 7500 yuan/ton. [1] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices continued to rise strongly, with a large premium over the spot average. The supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If production cuts are significant, the futures may remain strong; if not, the high premium may converge to the spot price. [2] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in some regions shows resilience. Tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market was affected by news, with the main contract rising. The fundamentals have not changed much, with both supply and demand being strong. The price may remain strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a pullback. [5] Nickel - The nickel market was affected by Indonesian nickel ore news and macro factors. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price may repair slightly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [7] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market was affected by low valuations and nickel price rebounds. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main operating range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [9] Zinc - The zinc market is affected by macro - level risk aversion. The supply is gradually changing from loose to tight, and the demand has a structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. [13] Copper - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - side concerns. The price bottom has shifted up, and short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by macro events. [14] Aluminum - The alumina market has a pattern of high supply and high inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on December 17 compared to December 16. The basis of various types decreased. [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of most contracts changed significantly, with some showing large decreases or increases. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. The production and operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly, while those in Xinjiang increased slightly. [1] - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly, while the change in warehouse receipt inventory was zero. [1] Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased significantly. [2] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price rose, and the inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. [2] Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1.65%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 12.00%. [4] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and LME inventory increased. [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate and related raw materials increased to varying degrees. [5] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, and the inventory decreased. [5] Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of nickel increased slightly, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel continued to rise. [7] - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel**: The cost of some methods of producing electrolytic nickel changed. [7] - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly. [7] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, while domestic inventories increased. [7] Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. [9] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of some raw materials remained stable, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased slightly. [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [9] - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports decreased significantly. [9] Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.69%, and the import loss increased. [13] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and the operating rates of some downstream industries changed. [13] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased. [13] Copper - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49%, and the premium decreased. [14] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [14] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and the operating rates of some copper - related industries decreased. [14] - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased, while the bonded area inventory decreased. [14] Aluminum Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and the operating rate increased slightly. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Alumina plant inventory, port inventory, and electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased. [17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55%. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various types of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly. [18] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rates of related industries increased. [18] - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly. [18]

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年12月18日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 副自 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3280 | O | 185 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3150 | 10 | રેટ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3260 | 3260 | O | 165 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3084 | 3081 | 3 | 196 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3113 | 3112 | 1 | 167 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3095 | 3090 | 5 | 185 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | 15 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3180 | 3180 | 0 | -75 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 32 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: SPPOMA's production data decline supports the market. Malaysian BMD futures may rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Domestic Dalian palm oil may find support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate between 8200 - 8300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy may reduce industrial use. Brazilian soybean harvest may pressure CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term, but inventory may decrease during the Spring Festival, with limited basis fluctuation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: US crude oil price movements affect the domestic vegetable oil market. Watch if the 05 contract can stop falling between 8900 - 9000 yuan. Spot prices fluctuate slightly [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices are stable, with increased southern pickling demand. December - January prices are uncertain due to potential pandemic impact and secondary fattening. Spot market has some support from farmers' reluctance to sell. The futures market may adjust narrowly [3]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure due to a favorable supply outlook. Brazilian, Indian, and Thai sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic sugar futures are weak due to increased supply, and prices are likely to remain bearish [7]. 2.4 Meal Industry - US soybeans lack trading highlights, and South American new - crop soybeans have a high yield expectation. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the one - to - five spread is supported, but the upside is limited [9]. 2.5 Corn Industry - Short - term corn supply increase may pressure prices, but farmers' reluctance to sell and low - inventory enterprises' restocking needs limit the decline. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 2.6 Red Date Industry - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. Futures prices are weak, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved consumption during the peak season [17]. 2.7 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. US cotton exports showed a mixed trend. Domestic cotton has a long - term optimistic outlook but faces short - term downstream pressure. The price may face resistance around 14050 - 14100 yuan [21]. 2.8 Egg Industry - Egg prices are rising gradually, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. Supply remains sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 8460 yuan, futures price (Y2605) to 8096 yuan, basis increased by 7.69% [1]. - Palm oil: Spot price in Guangdong dropped to 8380 yuan, futures price (P2605) to 8398 yuan, basis increased by 60.87% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 9570 yuan, futures price (O1605) to 9157 yuan, basis increased by 19.71% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Inter - month spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [1]. - Spreads between different oils also changed, such as the soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different contracts (e.g., 2605, 2603) increased slightly. Spot prices in various regions had different changes, with an overall upward trend in some areas [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - Slaughter volume increased by 2.48%, while some prices (e.g., daily strip price, piglet price) decreased slightly. Breeding profits improved [3]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - Domestic futures prices of sugar showed a weakening trend, and spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased. Import sugar prices also declined [7]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales data changed significantly, with a decrease in production and sales in some areas and an increase in imports [7]. 3.4 Meal Industry 3.4.1 Price and Basis Changes - Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices had different trends, with basis changes. Imported soybean prices were stable, and the basis of some contracts increased [9]. 3.4.2 Market Factors - US soybean is under pressure from South American supply. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and market sentiment affects the spread [9]. 3.5 Corn Industry 3.5.1 Price and Inventory Changes - Corn futures and spot prices decreased slightly, and inventory in some warehouses and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Corn starch futures price increased slightly [10]. 3.5.2 Market Situation - Supply and demand factors, such as farmers' selling behavior and enterprises' procurement, affect the corn market, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 3.6 Red Date Industry 3.6.1 Price and Position Changes - Futures prices of red dates decreased slightly, and spot prices in Cangzhou had different trends. The position and the number of warehouse receipts increased [14]. 3.6.2 Market Situation - Sales area arrivals are high, but transactions are lower than expected. The market is weak in the short - term, with potential improvement during the consumption peak [17]. 3.7 Cotton Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Domestic cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly. ICE cotton futures rose [21]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - Commercial and industrial inventories, import volume, and other indicators changed, with downstream inventory accumulation and marginal profit deterioration [21]. 3.8 Egg Industry 3.8.1 Price and Basis Changes - Egg futures prices decreased, and the basis increased. Egg - related prices (e.g., egg - chick price, culled - hen price) had different trends [23]. 3.8.2 Market Situation - Egg supply is sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - No clear core views are explicitly stated in the provided reports. The reports mainly present various data on different futures and industries including股指期货, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spreads - **IF Spreads**: The IF spot - futures spread was 3.52, up from the previous day. The historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles were 58.90% and 82.70% respectively. For IF inter - delivery spreads, different combinations showed various values and percentile positions [1]. - **IH Spreads**: Similar to IF, IH spreads had specific values and percentile changes compared to the previous day [1]. - **IC Spreads**: The IC spot - futures spread was 897, with high historical percentiles. Inter - delivery spreads also had their own values and changes [1]. - **IM Spreads**: The IM spot - futures spread was 6.26. Inter - delivery spreads showed different magnitudes and percentile positions [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 300, CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 50, and others had their current values, changes, and historical percentiles [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: For different bond futures like TS, TF, T, and TL, their implied repo rates (IRR) and basis had specific values, changes, and percentiles on December 17, 2025 [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Inter - delivery spreads for different bond futures contracts (e.g., current quarter - next quarter, current quarter - far quarter) had their values, changes, and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. also had corresponding data on December 17, 2025 [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Domestic Futures**: On December 17, 2025, domestic futures contracts like AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, and PD2606 had their closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes compared to the previous day [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: Foreign futures contracts such as COMEX gold, COMEX silver, NYMEX platinum, and NYMEX palladium also had their closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of precious metals including London gold, London silver, and others had their values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Basis**: The basis between different spot and futures prices (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold, London gold - COMEX gold) had specific values, changes, and historical percentiles [3]. - **Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, and others had their current values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate had their values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Inventories of precious metals in different exchanges and ETF holdings had their values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European and US West routes) and SCFI (composite, European, US West, and US East routes) had their settlement or freight rates, changes, and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures contracts like EC2602 (main contract) and others had their prices, changes, and percentage changes. The basis of the main contract also had its value and change [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply had a slight change. Shanghai port - related indicators such as port on - time rate, port berthing situation, and monthly export volume had their values and percentage changes. Overseas economic indicators including Eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, and US manufacturing PMI also had their changes [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed continued to cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, improving short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market lacks upward momentum due to the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike expectations [3] - The bond market continued to recover, with ultra - long bonds making up for losses, and the upper - limit expectation of interest rates will not deviate significantly from 1.85% [3] - Precious metals saw value reshaping driven by funds, with silver hitting a new high, but caution is needed due to potential over - bought conditions and regulatory risks [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2601) and methanol (MA2605) are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term; coking coal (JM2605) is expected to rebound from the bottom; palm oil (P2605) is recommended to be shorted on rallies; platinum and lithium (PT2606/PD) are recommended to be bought on dips [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rebounded led by pro - cyclical stocks, but the market lacks upward momentum and has limited downside space. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market continued to recover, with ultra - long bonds making up for losses. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation, and for trading, fast entry and exit with timely profit - taking are advised. For the 10 - year variety, the upper - limit expectation of interest rates will not deviate significantly from 1.85%, and attention should be paid to the support level of T2603 around 107.6 - 107.8. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and end - of - month treasury bond trading. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and seeing, and for the futures - spot strategy, attention can be paid to the positive spread of the 2603 contract and the opportunity to widen the basis [3] - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals saw value reshaping driven by funds, with silver hitting a new high. Unilateral long positions can be held, but caution is needed when chasing highs and timely profit - taking is recommended. For platinum and lithium, it is recommended to take profit on long positions on rallies or lock positions [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract oscillated narrowly, and short - term oscillation is expected [3] Commodity Sector - **Steel**: Steel prices maintained an oscillating range. In May, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to trade in the ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan respectively [3] - **Iron Ore**: With a decline in hot - metal production and an increase in port inventory, iron ore oscillated and rebounded, and it is recommended to view it as oscillating upward, with a reference range of 730 - 800 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coal in the production area continued to decline, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuated with the futures. The futures price rebounded from an oversold level, and it is recommended to view it as an oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 [3] - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts for coke in December was implemented, and the port trading price led the decline. It is recommended to view it as an oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1450 - 1600 [3] - **Copper**: The inventory in three locations increased, and spot trading was average. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the support level of the main contract at 90000 - 91000 [3] - **Alumina**: The price oscillated at the bottom, and short - term volatility may increase. Short - term traders can lightly build long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum**: After the interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21700 - 22400, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price oscillated following the aluminum price, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum narrowed slightly. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20700 - 21400, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and shorting AL03 can be considered [3] - **Zinc**: The center of the zinc price declined, and spot trading improved. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the main contract at 22850 - 22950, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse spread [3] - **Tin**: Fundamentals are strong, and the tin price oscillated at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding previous long positions and buy on dips on pullbacks [3] - **Nickel**: The expected quota in Indonesia decreased, and the price repaired from a low level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 112000 - 116000 [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The price adjusted slightly upward, and the supply - demand imbalance had limited driving force. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12200 - 12800 [3] - **New Energy**: - **Industrial Silicon**: The expectation of production cuts increased, and the futures price rose and then fell. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures continued to rise to a new high, and it is recommended to wait and see with a bullish - oscillating view [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment was stimulated by news, and the price rose sharply. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce long positions appropriately [3] - **Chemical Industry**: - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is tight, and there is support at low levels. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6600 - 7000 in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, with limited driving force. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips; a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 at low levels can be considered [3] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and it is recommended to narrow the processing fee on rallies [3] - **Bottle Chip**: The decline in bottle - chip inventory supports the processing fee, and attention should be paid to the progress of device restart and production. It is recommended to sell PR2602 - P - 5500 on rallies; the main - contract processing fee is expected to be strong in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [3] - **Ethanol**: Domestic supply is gradually shrinking, but the long - term supply - demand expectation is still weak. It is recommended to sell EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies to obtain time value [3] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support level around 6400 [3] - **LLDPE**: The North China region maintained a risk - free basis, and trading weakened. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **PP**: The spot price remained stable, and the basis weakened slightly. Attention should be paid to the expansion of PDH profits [3] - **Methanol**: Both the spot price and the basis strengthened, and trading improved. It is recommended to reduce the MTO spread for the 05 contract [3] - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to take a bearish view [3] - **PVC**: A foreign device was permanently shut down, triggering a sharp rebound in the futures price. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the rebound [3] - **Soda Ash**: Production is at a high level, with prominent over - supply, and there is no continuous driving force for a rebound. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [3] - **Glass**: The spot price temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, with no upward positive driving force. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions [3] - **Natural Rubber**: There is a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the rubber price oscillates in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost side is strong, and BR continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of BR2602 around 11200 [3] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have narrow - range adjustments; the pig market has a sentiment of holding back sales, and it is in a bottom - grinding phase; corn is in a narrow - range oscillation; vegetable oils rebounded in the short - term due to US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, and the P main contract may test the support level of 8200 - 8300 in the short - term; sugar is expected to oscillate weakly; cotton's upward trend slowed down and faces hedging pressure, and attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100; egg prices are mostly stable, with a slight decline in inventory in the circulation link, and are expected to oscillate weakly; apple's stocking is less than expected, and it is recommended to exit long positions opportunistically; jujube's new - year supply decreased slightly, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures products across multiple industries, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each product's market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends are detailed, with corresponding investment strategies proposed based on these analyses. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - Tin: With a strong fundamental outlook, tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand in some areas like South China shows resilience. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips. [2][36][39] - Methanol: The spot and basis are both strengthening, and trading is fair. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after shipping volume decreases. [3] - Coking Coal: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market has rebounded from an oversold position. Short - term rebound is expected. [3][61][63] - Fats and Oils: Affected by US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, vegetable oils have rebounded in the short term. Different types of oils like palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have their own market characteristics and price trends. [4][80][82] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: A - share markets showed a mixed trend. Index futures declined, and the basis of expiring contracts converged naturally. [8][9] - News: Domestic fiscal revenue data was released, and overseas trade frictions emerged. [9][10] - Capital Flow: A - share trading volume was stable, and the central bank conducted net reverse - repo withdrawals. [10] - Investment Strategy: Given the unclear market trend, it is advisable to wait and see. [10] 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures rose across the board, with long - term bonds experiencing significant gains. [11] - Capital Flow: The central bank conducted reverse - repo operations, resulting in net withdrawals. [12] - Investment Strategy: The short - term upward trend is not solid. It is recommended to treat the market as a shock, with short - term trading being cautious. [13] 3.3 Precious Metals - Market: Fed officials signaled a dovish stance, driving the price of precious metals higher. Silver reached a new high. [14][15] - Outlook: Gold is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term, while silver may face regulatory risks due to over - buying. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily in the long term. [16][17] 3.4 Shipping Index (European Routes) - Index: SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends. [18] - Fundamentals: Container shipping capacity increased, while demand in some regions was weak. [18] - Logic: The futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [18][19] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Inventories increased, and spot trading was average. The price is expected to be volatile, with support at 90000 - 91000 yuan/ton. [19][22] - Alumina: The price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, with a reference range of 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton. [23][25] - Aluminum: The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with support at 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [25][28] - Aluminum Alloy: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, with a reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [29][31] - Zinc: The price center has adjusted downward, and the supply pattern is gradually tightening. The price is expected to be volatile, with support at 22850 - 22950 yuan/ton. [32][35] - Tin: The fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to hold long positions. [36][39] - Nickel: The price is expected to recover slightly in the short term, with a reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [39][42] - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a reference range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [43][45] - Lithium Carbonate: The price rose significantly due to news, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce long positions. [47][50] - Polysilicon: The futures price rose to a new high, but the supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [51][53] - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a reference range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. [53][54] 3.6 Black Metals - Steel: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with 5 - month contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils focusing on the 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton and 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton ranges respectively. [55][57] - Iron Ore: The price is expected to rebound, with a recommended long - position strategy for the 2605 contract in the 730 - 800 yuan/ton range. [58][60] - Coking Coal: The price has rebounded from an oversold position, and short - term rebound is expected. [61][63] - Coke: The price has rebounded from an oversold position, and short - term rebound is expected. [64][66] 3.7 Agricultural Products - Meal: The US soybean market lacks highlights, and the domestic soybean meal market has pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of a decline in the 1 - 5 positive spread. [67][69] - Live Pigs: The market has a sentiment of withholding sales, and it is necessary to pay attention to the development of the epidemic. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures price is expected to adjust narrowly. [70][71] - Corn: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm and downstream replenishment. [72][74] - Sugar: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to be weak. [75] - Cotton: The US cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic price increase is expected to slow down. It is necessary to pay attention to the resistance level at 14050 - 14100 yuan/ton. [76][78] - Eggs: The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [79] - Fats and Oils: Affected by US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, vegetable oils have rebounded in the short term. Different types of oils have their own market characteristics. [4][80][82] - Red Dates: The new - year supply has a slight reduction, and the demand needs to be released. The futures price is expected to be weak, and the spot price is stable. [84] - Apples: The market is light, and it is recommended to close long positions. [85] 3.8 Energy Chemicals - PX: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at a low level. It is recommended to buy on dips in the 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton range. [87][88] - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the medium - term is expected to be loose. It is recommended to buy on dips in the 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton range and consider a long - position strategy for the TA5 - 9 spread. [89][90] - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw material. It is recommended to take a similar strategy as PTA and reduce the processing margin on rallies. [91][92] - Bottle Chip: The inventory decline supports the processing margin. It is necessary to pay attention to the restart and commissioning of devices. It is recommended to sell the PR2602 - P - 5500 option on rallies. [93][94] - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic supply is shrinking, but the far - month supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell the EG2605 - C - 4100 option on rallies. [95][97] - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand is weak, and the price has limited downward space. It is expected to fluctuate in the 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton range. [98] - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price has limited upward drive. It is expected to fluctuate in the 6400 - 6700 yuan/ton range. [99][100] - LLDPE: The trading has weakened, and it is recommended to wait and see. [101][102] - PP: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the PDH profit. [102] - Methanol: The spot and basis are strengthening, and the 05 contract can be considered for long positions after shipping volume decreases. [3][103][104] - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. [104][105] - PVC: The price has rebounded due to news, but the supply - demand is still in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to go short on rallies. [106] - Soda Ash: The supply is excessive, and the price has no continuous upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies after a rebound. [107][109] - Glass: The spot price has stabilized, but the market still has pressure. It is recommended to close long positions. [107][110] - Natural Rubber: The price is expected to fluctuate in the 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton range, and it is recommended to wait and see. [110][113] - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 11200 yuan/ton for the BR2602 contract. [113][115]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - The fundamentals of both LLDPE and PP show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Polypropylene has high maintenance levels on the supply - side with an expected increase later, and its inventory is still higher than usual. The overall valuation is moderately low. For polyethylene, the operating load is gradually rising, and the upstream inventory is still high year - on - year [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures fluctuated upwards, with the basis being relatively firm. In the port area, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple device shutdowns, but shipments are still fast. In the inland area, both supply and demand are increasing. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at low prices after the shipment decreases [4][5]. PVC & Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the supply - demand situation still has pressure, with high inventory levels. The price is expected to be weak. For PVC, the supply pressure remains this week, and the demand is sluggish. Although there are expectations of increased exports, the overall supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to go short on PVC after a rebound [8]. Glass & Soda Ash - For soda ash, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and the price is in a downward trend. After a technical rebound, short - term long positions can be closed, and short positions can be taken after a rebound. For glass, the spot price is stable, but the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with the 01 contract following the delivery logic and the 05 contract remaining weak in the short - term [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 in the short - term and should be treated with low - buying. PTA may fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term, and low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are recommended. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value. Short - fiber follows the raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee on the disk should be shorted when it is high. For polyester bottle - chips, it is recommended to sell PR2602 - P - 5500 [11]. Natural Rubber - The supply - side is supported by rising overseas raw material prices due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia. The demand - side has limited improvement in production capacity utilization. The market is in a short - term stalemate between long and short forces, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15000 - 15500 [13]. Urea - Affected by the news of India's new round of tenders, the urea price stopped falling and rebounded. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to bottom - out and rebound in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 1650 - 1700 [15]. Crude Oil - After a rebound, the crude oil price is affected by geopolitical factors such as the situation between the US and Venezuela and the US - Russia talks. The inventory shows a slight reduction, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Brent crude oil should be monitored at the level of 60 dollars per barrel [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - For pure benzene, the short - term supply - demand is weak, but there are expectations of improvement later. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600. For styrene, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short - term [19]. LPG - The LPG price shows certain fluctuations. The inventory and operating rates of upstream and downstream are changing. The overall market situation needs to be further observed [21]. Group 3: Summaries by Catalog Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 and L2605 of LLDPE decreased, while PP2601 slightly increased and PP2605 slightly decreased. The basis and spreads of various varieties also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased, and social inventory decreased. PP enterprise inventory slightly increased, and trader inventory decreased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate was stable, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased. PP device operating rate increased, and powder operating rate decreased [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis was relatively firm. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [4]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory increased, port inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates increased slightly, and some downstream operating rates also changed [5]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **PVC**: - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of PVC increased. The basis and spreads had corresponding changes [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply pressure remained, and demand was sluggish. There were expectations of increased exports [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: - **Prices**: Prices in different regions and forms had different trends. The export profit increased slightly [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply - demand pressure remained, with high inventory levels [8]. Glass & Soda Ash - **Glass**: - **Prices**: Spot prices in different regions were stable, and futures prices had minor changes [9]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased [9]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices had small fluctuations [9]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply - demand was bearish, with reduced demand from the float and photovoltaic ends [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as crude oil and naphtha, and downstream polyester product prices all had different degrees of change [11]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory was expected to increase [11]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, changed [11]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: Spot prices of natural rubber increased, and the basis and spreads changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory increased [13]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply was affected by the overseas situation, and demand was limited by the slow recovery of tire production and the weakening of replacement demand [13]. Urea - **Prices**: Futures prices increased, and spot prices in different regions had different trends [15]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased [15]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply was abundant, and demand was affected by environmental inspections and the limited impact of India's tenders [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different trends, and the spreads between different varieties and months also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: EIA inventory decreased slightly [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Prices**: Pure benzene and styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and the spreads and cash - flows had corresponding changes [19]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene port inventory was stable, and styrene port inventory decreased [19]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries decreased [19]. LPG - **Prices**: Futures prices of LPG had different trends, and the basis and spreads changed [21]. - **Inventory**: Refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased [21]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream refinery operating rate increased, and some downstream operating rates also changed [21].

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 | | | 日 272.00 288.00 -16.0 -5.56% 山东 199.5 188.40 -11.1 -5.56% 万/立方米 江苏 74.23 68.24 -6.0 -8.07% 需求: 日均出库量 (問題) 12月12日 12月5日 涨跌 涨跌幅 地区 单位 中国 6.66 -0.20 -3% 6.46 万/立方米 3.39 196 山东 0.05 3.44 2.71 江苏 -0.21 2.50 -8% 原木主要港口库存(万方) 原木日均出库量(万方) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/11/1 2022 - 2023 - =2024 = =2025 -2023 =2022 =2024 2025 辐射松4米中A:CFR价(美元/JAS立方米 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 220 870 =2022 -202 ...

目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2512 | 总持仓保持稳定 | 国君多头减仓超 2000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2512 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2512 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信多空头均减仓逾 1000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2512 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君中信多空头均大幅减仓 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -28,826.0 -8,742.0 -18,652.0 -38,174.0 -628.0 -1,896.0 2,748.0 -9,704.0 -45,000 -40,000 -35,000 -30,000 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-8 ...

| 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 12 | 0.22% | 56.70% | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5558 | 5546 | 52 | 0.90% | 5810 | 5758 | 35.60% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐 (SM603) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 196 | 6.36% | 3280 | 3084 | 71.00% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | ટર | 3270 | 28.90% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3245 | 0.77% | 热卷(HC2605) | | | | | | ୧୦ | 9.03% | 768 | 54.00% | 铁矿石 (12605) | 837 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 50 | 3.30% | 1581 | 折算价 ...