1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Grains and Oilseeds - The domestic soybean inventory pressure is acceptable, and the soybean meal inventory remains low. Although the开机 rate has improved, there is no inventory pressure for soybean meal for now. The basis has improved slightly this week. The follow - up supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, but the support from US soybeans is strengthening. The Brazilian premium is also expected to be strong before the US soybean import is expected to open. The futures price may follow the US soybean to correct in the short term, but the space is limited. It is recommended to place low - level rolling long orders [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of live pigs maintains an oscillating structure. The slaughter weight of live pigs is slowly declining, and the reluctance to sell among farmers has increased recently, which has boosted the enthusiasm for second - fattening and supported the price this week. The demand side shows no obvious signs of improvement, and the market price is expected to remain mainly oscillating. There is still breeding profit currently, but the market is cautious about expanding production capacity. The market has no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward driving force is also not strong [3][4]. Corn - The current corn supply varies with the rhythm of traders. Northeast traders have tight inventories and are reluctant to sell, keeping the price firm. North China traders take profits after the corn price rises to a high level, and the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants has recovered on the weekend, with the price remaining stable with partial declines. The profit of downstream deep - processing has recovered, and the operating rate has increased slightly, while the inventory remains stable. The breeding end purchases as needed for rigid demand replenishment. However, the narrowing price difference between wheat and corn and even parity has increased the substitution for feed use, limiting the increase in corn prices. In the long term, the tight supply of corn, low import volume, and increasing breeding consumption support the upward movement of corn prices. In the short term, the tight supply supports the corn price, but the concentrated listing of wheat restricts the upward rhythm. The expansion of the minimum - price policy procurement range supports the price, and the overall corn market remains in an oscillating and slightly strong state with limited amplitude. Attention should be paid to the subsequent wheat market and policy situation [6]. Sugar - The sugar production data in Brazil in late May increased year - on - year, and the weather in India and Thailand is favorable for sugarcane growth. The global supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected that raw sugar will maintain an oscillating and weak pattern. Currently, the negative factors in the market have been fully reflected in the price trend. If there are no new negative factors to drive the market, the possibility of a sharp decline in sugar prices is small. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern this week, with a reference range of 5650 - 5800 [10]. Oils and Fats - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures oscillate around 4100 ringgit. Due to concerns about the slowdown in export growth in the first 20 days, the futures price has slightly declined after rising. It will repeatedly test the support at 4100 ringgit in the short term. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level stagnant and declining trend. In the short term, it is expected to pull back and seek support at 8500 yuan. Affected by the oscillation of Malaysian palm oil, it may break through 8500 yuan and further decline to the range of 8300 - 8350 yuan. For soybean oil, crude oil has entered an oscillating adjustment state after a sharp rise on the 13th, and the supply in the Strait of Hormuz has not been interrupted, so the upside space of crude oil is limited at present, which affects the trend of vegetable oils as biodiesel raw materials. In the short term, the CBOT soybean oil main contract in July oscillates below 55 cents. In the domestic market, this is the season with the lightest demand. As schools are on holiday, the demand for oils and fats from canteens and small restaurants around schools has significantly decreased. The high factory operating rate and high soybean oil production have led to inventory accumulation. If the futures price enters a stagnant and adjusting trend, the spot basis quotation will be supported; if the futures price rises again, the spot basis quotation will be dragged down and may decline to some extent [12]. Cotton - The market driving force is still weak. The operating rate of the industrial downstream continues to decline, and the finished - product inventory continues to rise. However, the weakening force is still not strong. The basis of old - crop cotton remains relatively firm, with only a small number of adjustments in the basis in some areas, while the mainstream price remains unchanged. There is still support for cotton prices, and the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the macro and industrial downstream demand [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is still relatively abundant. The sales speed of low - priced eggs is acceptable, while that of high - priced eggs is average. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, with a slight decline in the later period [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2509 is 3067 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.32%); the basis of M2509 is - 127 yuan, up 10 yuan (7.30%); the spot basis in Guangdong is m2509 - 140; the crushing profit of Brazilian imports in August is 188 yuan, up 27 yuan (16.8%); the warehouse receipt is 26001, unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2581 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.35%); the futures price of RM2509 is 2679 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%); the basis of RM2509 is - 8 yuan, up 4 yuan (5.77%); the spot basis in Guangdong is rm09 - 90; the crushing profit of Canadian imports in November is - 30 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 31.25%); the warehouse receipt is 25824, down 30 (- 0.12%) [1]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 4259 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.61%); the basis of the main soybean contract is - 299 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 9.52%); the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3690 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean No. 2 contract is 3750 yuan, down 14 yuan (- 0.37%); the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract is - 60 yuan, up 14 yuan (18.92%); the warehouse receipt is 19811, down 316 (- 1.57%) [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract basis is 505 yuan, down 135 yuan (- 21.09%); the price of live pigs 2507 is 13335 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.60%); the price of live pigs 2509 is 13895 yuan, up 135 yuan (0.98%); the 7 - 9 spread is 560 yuan, up 55 yuan (10.89%); the main contract position is 76202, down 84 (- 0.11%); the warehouse receipt is 750, unchanged [3]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan is 14400 yuan, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 14500 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Sichuan, it is 13650 yuan, down 100 yuan; in Liaoning, it is 13950 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 15490 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Hunan, it is 13910 yuan, unchanged; in Hebei, it is 14300 yuan, up 100 yuan [3]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2509 is 2409 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.17%); the basis is - 29 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 16.00%); the 9 - 1 spread is 120 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.69%); the price of Shekou bulk grain is 2460 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%); the north - south trade profit is 9 yuan, up 10 yuan (1000.00%); the CIF price is 1927 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.12%); the import profit is 533 yuan, up 12 yuan (2.35%); the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning is 16, down 132 (- 89.19%); the position is 1818031, up 12153 (0.67%); the warehouse receipt is 216521, unchanged [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 is 2701 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.04%); the spot price in Changchun is 2720 yuan, unchanged; in Weifang, it is 2940 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 19 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 5.00%); the 7 - 9 spread is - 87 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.33%); the starch - corn futures spread is 292 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 1.02%); the profit of Shandong starch is - 88 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 12.82%); the position is 254743, down 14605 (- 5.42%); the warehouse receipt is 24233, unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5573 yuan, up 47 yuan (0.85%); the price of sugar 2509 is 5720 yuan, up 62 yuan (1.10%); the price of ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.53 cents/lb, up 0.18 cents (1.10%); the 1 - 9 spread is - 147 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 11.36%); the main contract position is 368972, down 15708 (- 4.08%); the warehouse receipt is 27669, down 610 (- 2.16%); the effective forecast is 0 [10]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning is 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.17%); in Kunming, it is 5855 yuan, unchanged; the basis in Nanning is 310 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 14.36%); in Kunming, it is 135 yuan, down 62 yuan (- 31.47%); the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4393 yuan, down 42 yuan (- 0.95%); outside the quota is 5578 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.98%) [10]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8450 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.60%); the futures price of Y2509 is 7736 yuan, unchanged; the basis of Y2509 is 714 yuan, up 50 yuan (7.53%); the spot basis in Jiangsu in June is 09 + 240; the warehouse receipt is 17552, unchanged [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The current price in Guangdong is 8820 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.23%); the futures price of P2509 is 8382 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.05%); the basis of P2509 is 438 yuan, up 24 yuan (5.80%); the spot basis in Guangdong in June is 09 + 300; the import cost of Guangzhou Port in September is 8898 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.24%); the import profit is - 516 yuan, down 25 yuan (- 5.09%); the warehouse receipt is 540, unchanged [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 9920 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.20%); the futures price of O1509 is 9397 yuan, up 46 yuan (0.49%); the basis of O1509 is 523 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 4.74%); the spot basis in Jiangsu in June is 09 + 180; the warehouse receipt is 100, unchanged [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13495 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.22%); the price of cotton 2601 is 13515 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 0.11%); the price of ICE US cotton main contract is 66.76 cents/lb, up 0.19 cents (0.29%); the 9 - 1 spread is - 20 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 300.00%); the main contract position is 524982, down 936 (- 0.18%); the warehouse receipt is 10532, down 75 (- 1.62%); the effective forecast is 303, down 5 [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 14775 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 0.07%); the CC Index of 3128B is 14891 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 0.08%); the FC Index of M: 1% is 13438 yuan, unchanged; the basis of 3128B - 01 contract is 1269 yuan, up 19 yuan (1.52%); the basis of 3128B - 05 contract is 1249 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.32%) [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of egg 09 contract is 3662 yuan/500KG, down 11 yuan (- 0.30%); the price of egg 07 contract is 2936 yuan/500KG, down 3 yuan (- 0.10%); the basis is - 691 yuan/500KG, up 55 yuan (7.39%); the 9 - 7 spread is 726 yuan, down 8 yuan (- 1.09%) [14]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price is 2.93 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan (1.92%); the price of egg - laying chicken chicks is 4.00 yuan/feather, down 0.10 yuan (- 2.44%); the price of culled chickens is 4.44 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan (- 2.63%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.24, down 0.09 (- 3.86%); the breeding profit is - 33.26 yuan/feather, down 5.38 yuan (- 19.30%) [14].

| 业期现日报 【2011 1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 纪元菲 20013180 | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品科 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 8150 | 8150 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 童美(通室SI5530星准) | 725 | 790 | -65 | -8.23% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 8700 | 8700 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 475 | 540 | -65 | -12.04% | | | 新疆99硅 | 7600 | 7600 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 975 | 1040 | -65 | -6.25% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2507-2508 | ...

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 王凌辉 Z0019938 | | | | | | | 员知 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月19日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月18日 张跃 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | | 8400 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8350 50 0.60% | | ...

| 业期现日报 【2011 1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 纪元菲 20013180 | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品科 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 8150 | 8150 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 童美(通室SI5530星准) | 725 | 790 | -65 | -8.23% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 8700 | 8700 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 475 | 540 | -65 | -12.04% | | | 新疆99硅 | 7600 | 7600 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 975 | 1040 | -65 | -6.25% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2507-2508 | ...

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3090 | 3100 | -10 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | O | 221 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 191 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2979 | 2980 | -1 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2986 | 2986 | 0 | 104 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2979 | 2978 | 1 | 111 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | 92 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3100 | 3110 | -10 | 2 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月20日 曹剑兰 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表 达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行压何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 798.0 | 795.5 | 2.5 | 0.31% | | | 原木2509 | 794.0 | 795.0 | -1.0 | -0.13% | | | 原木2511 | 791 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices showed a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties such as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and the uncertainty of Trump's policies. Some in the market believe that the current oil price has factored in a risk premium of about $10, and potential supply disruptions may push the oil price to break through further. - From a macro and fundamental perspective, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but anticipates two rate cuts this year, potentially stimulating the economy and boosting crude oil demand. Also, the largest decline in US crude oil inventories in a year last week supported the strong - side oscillation of oil prices. - In the short - term, the high - level oscillation trend is likely to continue, but market risks have increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the long side. Resistance levels are $75 - 76 for WTI, $78 - 79 for Brent, and 580 - 590 yuan for SC [51]. Methanol - Amid geopolitical conflicts, there is a strong sentiment for long - side allocation in the market. For ports, the import forecast has been revised down. If Iranian supply is interrupted, it may lead to the shutdown of supporting MTO plants or profit squeezing, potentially reducing production and alleviating the supply - demand contradiction at ports. It is necessary to monitor the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. - In the inland area, prices have slightly weakened, with the increase driven by the futures market. On the supply side, plant restarts have led to an increase in production, while demand is in the off - season, limiting the room for valuation expansion. A short - term positive spread strategy is recommended [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, recent开工 has declined, and the capacity utilization rate in Shandong has dropped to 83%. Although some production may resume as costs decline, the driving force for caustic soda is limited. The main alumina plants in Shandong have continuously lowered their purchase prices, weakening the drive for the spot market. Non - aluminum demand is weak, and inventory is not an effective driving factor. The current caustic soda spot price is falling, and it is recommended to wait and see [57][58]. - For PVC, the short - term contradiction has not intensified further, and the price has strengthened due to the sharp increase in energy prices under geopolitical conflicts and the macro - sentiment. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent as the domestic real - estate sector is in a downward trend, dragging down terminal demand. With fewer maintenance plans in June and new plant startups in June - July, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a mid - term short - selling strategy [58]. Styrene - Market fluctuations mainly follow changes in crude oil and styrene futures. With downstream public tenders and low styrene inventory in commercial tanks, and the strong - side movement of oil prices, pure benzene's price only slightly followed due to its own supply - demand structure. Styrene port inventory has been declining, and spot supply is limited. Geopolitical factors have driven up crude oil prices, strengthening the near - term basis. Although integrated styrene plants have restarted, most of the supply is for contract fulfillment, resulting in limited market - flowing goods. - It is necessary to pay attention to the possible weakening of styrene's supply - demand balance due to high profits. Styrene's valuation is likely to be restored through price declines considering pure benzene's inventory and import pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - side opportunities from the resonance of raw material prices in the medium - term [65]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - The sharp increase in oil prices has suppressed costs. Propylene and methanol have strengthened, while coal prices have shown a weak oscillation, compressing profits to a record low. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, inventory is differentiated (PP inventory accumulates, while PE inventory decreases). - Dynamically, there are many short - term PP maintenance plans, but new production capacity has been put into operation smoothly, leading to an increase in output. PE's start - up rate has increased, and more maintenance in mid - to late June may alleviate inventory accumulation. Demand is affected by the off - season and US tariffs, and the end of national subsidies at the beginning of the month has affected the demand for PP small household appliances. For PE, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for PP, a mid - term short - side strategy can be considered, while paying attention to the start - up situation of marginal production capacity (MTO, PDH) [68]. Urea - The core drivers are the concentration of exports and the sentiment boost caused by international geopolitical events, which are demand - side dominated. The Israel - Iran conflict has pushed up international prices, and the expected increase in exports has stimulated domestic buying sentiment, driving both futures and spot prices to rebound. - Secondary drivers include the high daily production on the supply side with potential support from local maintenance and the short - term positive impact of inventory reduction. Although industrial demand is weak and the agricultural sector is cautious, it has not reversed the upward trend. A cautiously bullish approach can be maintained in the short - term, and long positions can be established at low levels based on the export and inventory reduction logic. However, strict risk control is required as the basis has narrowed after the rapid price increase, and the futures market has shown over - buying signals [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Middle - East geopolitical news has continued to affect oil prices, and the significant reduction of 1.1 billion barrels in EIA crude oil inventories has supported oil prices, which are expected to remain strong in the short - term. Although PX supply has increased recently and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, the market is worried about raw material supply due to the escalation of Middle - East geopolitics, and the short - term supply - demand of PX is relatively tight. PX09 is expected to be strong in the short - term; it is recommended to wait and see on the 9 - 1 month spread of PX; and reduce positions at low levels for the strategy of narrowing the PX - SC spread. - **PTA**: PTA supply has increased significantly recently, and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, so the supply - demand is gradually weakening. However, due to the tight spot circulation and the rigid demand replenishment of some polyester factories, the short - term basis of PTA is still strong, but there is an expectation of decline. Affected by the strong oil prices and the tight supply - demand of PX, PTA is expected to be supported strongly in the short - term. TA is expected to be strong in the short - term, pay attention to the pressure above 5000 yuan; look for reverse - spread opportunities above 200 for TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply - demand structure of MEG in June is still good. Although the supply of Saudi goods is expected to increase, the arrival of North American goods is limited, so both implicit and explicit inventories are expected to decrease. However, short - term demand is weak, and with the restart of MEG plants such as those in Saudi - China, Hengli, and Henan Coal Industry, the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose. Affected by the rising oil prices due to the Middle - East situation and the shutdown of some Iranian plants, MEG is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure around 4600 yuan for EG09 in the short - term. - **Short - fiber**: The current supply - demand of short - fiber is generally weak. Due to the strong backwardation structure of PTA, the spot processing fee of short - fiber has been significantly compressed. Short - fiber factories plan to cut production in July. With low inventory in short - fiber factories and strong raw materials, the absolute price of short - fiber is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the processing fee is expected to be restored. The strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; focus on expanding the low - level PF processing fee on the futures market and pay attention to the implementation of production cuts later. - **Polyester Bottle - chips**: June is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. According to CCF, since the end of May, Sanfangxiang has shut down 1 million tons of polyester bottle - chip production capacity, and other major bottle - chip manufacturers also plan to cut production at the end of June and early July. The supply - demand of bottle - chips is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound from the bottom. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; the main - contract processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at the lower end of the range [79]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price and Spread Changes**: On June 20, compared with June 18, Brent rose by $2.15 to $78.85, a 2.80% increase; WTI rose by $0.22 to $75.36, a 0.29% increase; SC rose by 15.50 yuan to 574.50 yuan, a 2.77% increase. Various spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also showed significant changes [51]. - **Month - to - Month Structure**: There are data on the month - to - month structures of USDL, Gasoil, WTI, Dubai, RBOB, etc., showing the price differences between different contract months [1][6][8]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On June 20, compared with June 18, MA2601, MA2509, and related spreads such as MA91 and the regional spreads of methanol all showed price and spread changes. For example, MA91 spread increased by 11 to 28, a 64.71% increase [54]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10% to 36.735%, methanol port inventory decreased by 10.09% to 58.6 million tons, and methanol social inventory decreased by 7.52% to 95.4%. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises also changed, with the upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate increasing by 3.06% to 77.44% [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of products such as Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed. For example, SH2509 decreased by 10 to 2288, a 0.4% decrease [57]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Caustic soda and PVC开工 rates, overseas quotations, export profits, and inventory data all showed changes. For example, the caustic soda industry开工 rate decreased by 2.6% to 85.7, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% to 35.5 million tons [57][58]. Styrene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as styrene in the spot and futures markets changed. For example, styrene's East - China spot price rose by 90 to 8100, a 1.1% increase [62][63]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of domestic pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS changed, and inventory data of pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products also showed changes. For example, styrene's start - up rate increased by 2.1% to 73.8, and styrene port inventory decreased by 11.5% to 9.3 million tons [65]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and related spreads, as well as spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE changed. For example, L2601 rose by 37 to 7399, a 0.50% increase [68]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories, as well as the start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises, changed. For example, PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83% to 49.9 million tons, and PP装置开工率 increased by 2.1% to 78.6 [68]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of urea futures contracts, spot prices in different regions, and various spreads changed. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 11 to 1725, a 0.63% decrease [72]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and production enterprise order days changed. For example, domestic urea daily production decreased by 0.54% to 20.13 million tons, and domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49% to 113.60 million tons [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as POY, FDY, and DTY in the polyester industry chain, as well as various spreads and processing fees changed. For example, POY150/48 price decreased by 10 to 7130, a 0.1% decrease [79]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as MEG inventory and arrival expectations, changed. For example, PTA开工率 increased by 2.9% to 82.6, and MEG port inventory decreased by 2.8% to 61.6 million tons [79].

| 碳酸锂产业期现日报 GS | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月20日 | | | | 林嘉旎 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 电池级碳酸锂均价 | 60450 | 60450 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | SMM 工业级碳酸锂均价 | 28850 | 58850 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM电池级氢氧化锂均价 | 59170 | 59420 | -250.0 | -0.42% | 元/吨 | | SMM工业级氢基化铝均处 | 53170 | 53420 | -250.0 | -0.47% | 元/吨 | | 中日韩CIF电池级碳酸锂 | 8.05 | 8.05 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/千克 | | 中日韩CIF电池级氢氧化锂 | 8.15 | 8.15 | 0.00 | 0.00% ...

| | 尿素 | UR2509 | 验证 | 约压力位调整到1780-1800 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | bX | PX2509 | 自身供需偏紧叠加成本端偏强,短期PX走势偏强 | 短期偏强,关注7000以上压力及油价走势;PX- SC价差做缩策略低位减仓。 | | | PTA | TA2509 | 供需逐步转弱但成本端偏强,PTA偏强震荡 | 短期偏强,关注5000附近压力;TA9-1滚动反套 操作 | | 能源 | 短纤 | PF2508 | 工厂减产预期下,加工费存修复预期 | PF单边同PTA:PF盘面加工费低位做扩为主 | | 《工 | 瓶片 | PR2509 | 需求旺季,瓶片存减产预期,加工费或触底反弹,PR跟随成本 波动 | PR单边同PTA: PR主力盘面加工费预计在350- 600元/吨区间波动,关注区间下沿做扩机会 | | | 乙醇 | EG2509 | 伊朗乙二醇装置停车,提振乙二醇上涨 | 短期EG09关注4500-4550压力 | | | 苯乙烯 | EB2507 | 短期能源扰动盘面震荡反复,关注中期矛盾 | 建议暂观望:中期关 ...

| 79.50% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF509) | 5478 | 5310 | 168 | 3.16% | 5750 | 5584 | 166 | 52.90% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 2.97% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 104 | 3.48% | 3090 | 2986 | 50.00% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢(RB2510) | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 87 | 3190 | 52.30% | 热卷(HC2510) | 3103 | 2.80% | | | | | | 57 | 755 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 698 | 8.10% | 46.10% | 1374 | -27 | 焦炭 (J2509) ...