点、见解及分析方法、并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下、报告内窗仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达较难见并不构成所述品种买卖的出 价或向价，投资者据此投资，风险营担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有、未经广发期货书面授权、任何人不得对 本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 最新位 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 全历史分位数 | 11.90 | IF期现价差 | 3.52 | 58.90% | 1.68 | 82.70% | | | | | | | | | | | | ■期 ...

| 铁矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 | | | 徐艺丹 | | Z0020017 | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 782.5 | 772.6 | 9.9 | 1.3% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 830.4 | 824.9 | 5.5 | 0.7% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 836.3 | 830.9 | 5.4 | 0.6% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 829.5 | 824.1 | 5.4 | 0.7% | | | 01合约基差:卡粉 | -1.0 | -4.4 | 3.4 | 76.4% | | | 01合约基差:PB粉 | 46.9 | 47.9 | -1.0 | -2.1% | 工/肥 | | 01合约基差:巴混粉 | 52.8 | 53.9 | -1.1 | -2.1% | | | 01合约基差: 金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may have a short - term rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Dalian palm oil futures may seek support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate in the 8200 - 8300 range [1]. - Soybean oil: With uncertain biodiesel policies in the US and upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest, CBOT soybean oil is under pressure. In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but with the approaching Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports in Q1, domestic factory soybean oil inventories may decrease, and basis quotes are expected to have limited fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the decline in US crude oil prices and subsequent events, the domestic vegetable oil market was first dragged down and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to whether the rapeseed oil 05 contract can stop falling in the 8900 - 9000 yuan range [1]. Pork - Spot prices are stable, and with the increasing demand for southern curing, the downside support is stronger. There is high uncertainty in the December - January market due to the possible impact of the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening pigs. The spot market has a sentiment of holding back sales, which supports the market. The futures market rose on the news of tariff increase on European pork imports but then fell as the actual tariff was lowered and the impact of imported pork on domestic supply is limited. The futures market will continue to adjust narrowly [3]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are in a bearish pattern due to the favorable export conditions in Brazil and the expected increase in sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand. In China, the sugar - pressing speed in the main producing areas has accelerated, and the futures market price is weakening due to increased supply. The market is expected to remain weak [7]. Meal - The US soybean market lacks trading highlights, and the South American new - crop soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, which suppresses the US soybean price. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. Although there is speculation about delayed soybean clearance and a sentiment of supporting prices, the upward space is limited, and there is a risk of decline [9]. Corn - In the Northeast, the grass - roots have a sentiment of supporting prices, and the prices in the producing areas are stable. In the north port, the supply has increased, and the price has slightly decreased. In North China, farmers sell when the price is high and hold back when the price is low. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises purchase on demand, and feed enterprises have a slightly lower willingness to pay for new orders. In the short term, the increase in corn supply will put pressure on the price, but the price decline is limited due to the grass - roots' price - supporting sentiment and the need for low - inventory enterprises to replenish stocks. The market will fluctuate narrowly [10]. Red Dates - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. The price in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market is firm, while that in the Guangdong Ruyifang market has slightly declined. The futures price is weak, the spot price is stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved transactions during the consumption peak, and the downward momentum is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the inventory level after the Spring Festival and the planting area and early - stage weather in 2026 [17]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. The US cotton export sales showed a decrease compared to the previous week and the four - week average. The US cotton market will remain volatile. In China, although the market expects a decline in the Xinjiang planting area next year, the downstream industry is weak, with increasing finished - product inventories and deteriorating spinning enterprise profits and cash flows. However, the rigid demand for cotton raw materials by spinning enterprises remains, so the downside space of cotton prices is limited, but there is pressure above. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100 [21]. Eggs - Egg prices are gradually rising from a low level, leading to a sentiment of holding back sales among farmers. The number of newly - laying hens is decreasing, but the overall inventory improvement is not obvious. With favorable storage conditions due to the recent cooling, egg supply remains sufficient. The market transaction is okay, with increased buying sentiment in low - price areas and high inventory pressure in high - price areas. All links are actively clearing inventory. The egg market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On December 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8460 yuan, down 0.59% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8096 yuan, down 0.93%; the basis of Y2605 was 364 yuan, up 7.69%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25964 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8380 yuan, down 0.59%; the futures price of P2605 was 8398 yuan, down 0.92%; the basis of P2605 was - 18 yuan, up 60.87%. The import cost in Guangzhou Port for May was 8848.4 yuan, down 0.77%, and the import profit was - 450 yuan, down 2.02%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 950 [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan, down 0.83%; the futures price of O1605 was 9157 yuan, down 1.59%; the basis of O1R05 was 413 yuan, up 19.71%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 3386 to 3336 [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread was 68 yuan, down 15%; the palm oil 05 - 09 spread was 102 yuan, down 15%; the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread was 13 yuan, down 68.29%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at 80 yuan; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 520 yuan, up 3.35%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1110 yuan, down 2.63%; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1061 yuan, down 6.35% [1]. Pork - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 315, up 215% from the previous day. The price of live - hog 2605 was 11955 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the price of live - hog 2603 was 11435 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 520, up 10.34%. The main - contract position was 167381, up 6.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 823 [3]. - **Spot**: In Henan, the price was 11750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; in Sichuan, it was 12100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 11200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 12410 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hunan, it was 11260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Hebei, it was 11650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 231951, up 2.48%; the weekly strip price was 18 yuan, down 0.17%; the weekly piglet price was 16.5 yuan/kg, down 2.94%; the weekly sow price was 32.46 yuan, down 0.03%; the weekly slaughter weight was 129.63 kg, down 0.15%; the weekly cumulative breeding profit was - 163 yuan, up 2.59%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 241 yuan, up 7.21%; the monthly number of fertile sows was 39900000, down 1.12% [3]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5215 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5139 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 14.76 cents/lb, down 0.61%. The 1 - 5 spread was 76 yuan/ton, down 3.8%. The main - contract position was 487935, up 1.35%. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remained unchanged at 611 and 1490 respectively [7]. - **Spot**: In Nanning, the price was 5320 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; in Kunming, it was 5245 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The Nanning basis was 181 yuan, down 12.56%; the Kunming basis was 106 yuan, down 16.54%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4094 yuan/ton, down 0.8%; outside the quota was 5188 yuan/ton, down 0.82% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1050000 tons, down 23.24%; the cumulative national sugar sales was 350000 tons, down 42.53%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 133900 tons, down 73.87%; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi was 89400 tons, down 68.63%. The national cumulative sugar - sales rate was 33.5%, down 24.75%; the cumulative sugar - sales rate in Guangxi was 66.77%, up 20.05%. The national industrial inventory was 700000 tons, down 7.4%; the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 44500 tons, down 80.43%; the industrial inventory in Yunnan was 12600 tons, up 110%. The sugar import volume was 750000 tons, up 38.89% [7]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 3100 yuan, down 0.32%; the futures price of M2605 was 2756 yuan, down 0.76%; the basis of M2605 was 344 yuan, up 3.3%. The spot basis quote was m2605 + 280. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans in February was 38, up 140.7%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 23830 [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2410 yuan, up 0.42%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2331 yuan, down 1.19%; the basis of RM2605 was 79 yuan, up 92.68%. The import crushing profit for Canadian rapeseed in January was 476, down 7.57%. The number of warehouse receipts was 0 [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - one contract was 4090 yuan, unchanged; the basis was - 150 yuan, unchanged. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract was 3739 yuan, down 1.16%; the basis was 211 yuan, up 26.35%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 17034 [9]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread was - 110 yuan, down 10%; the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan, down 25.45%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.73, down 0.27%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.84, up 0.12%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 690 yuan, down 2.82%; the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 425 yuan, up 1.67% [9]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 was 2206 yuan, down 0.63%; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan, down 0.44%; the basis was 74 yuan, up 5.71%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 33 yuan, down 83.33%. The bulk grain price in Shekou was 2410 yuan, down 0.41%. The north - south trade profit was 30 yuan, unchanged. The CIF price was 2120 yuan, down 0.1%; the import profit was 290 yuan, down 2.65%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 421, down 59.48%. The number of warehouses decreased from 2146100 to 2098833, down 2.2%. The number of warehouse receipts was 54440, down 0.87% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2512 yuan, up 0.4%. The spot price in Changchun was 2590 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2800 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 78 yuan, down 11.36%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan, up 18.6%. The 01 - contract spread between starch and corn was 306 yuan, up 8.51%. The profit of Shandong starch enterprises was - 8 yuan, down 233.33%. The number of warehouses decreased from 287376 to 286198, down 0.41%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2500 [10]. Red Dates - **Futures**: The price of red dates 2601 was 8830 yuan, unchanged; the price of red dates 2605 (main contract) was 8915 yuan, down 0.56%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9235 yuan, down 0.48%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 85 yuan, up 37.04%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 320 yuan, down 1.59%. The position was 175737, up 1.68%. The number of warehouse receipts was 982, up 11.21%; the effective forecast was 1145, up 0.97%; the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 2127, up 5.45% [14]. - **Spot**: The price of top - grade red dates in Cangzhou was 9650 yuan, down 0.21%; the price of first - grade red dates was 8600 yuan, unchanged; the price of second - grade red dates was 7200 yuan, unchanged. The basis of top - grade red dates to the main contract was 135 yuan, up 28.57%; the basis of first - grade red dates to the main contract was 885 yuan, up 5.99% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13925 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13930 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 63.46 cents/lb, up 0.52%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 200%. The main - contract position was 731267, up 2.48%. The number of warehouse receipts was 3482, up 8.85%; the effective forecast was 3898, down 3.08% [21]. - **Spot**: The arrival price of 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 1

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Red Dates**: The "weak reality" of high inventory and weak consumption of red date old stocks, combined with the new - season's production cut being less than market expectations, has led to a loosening of cost support. The recent market in the sales area shows more arrivals and less shipments, with no obvious peak - season characteristics. The short - term red date market will experience wide - range oscillations at low levels. Future attention should be on the absolute inventory level after the Spring Festival, the planting area in 2026, and early - stage weather forecasts [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot prices are stable, and with the increasing demand for curing meat in the South, the downward - support capacity has strengthened. The market from December to January is highly uncertain. On one hand, the recent increase in the epidemic may suppress the spot market; on the other hand, the second - round fattening may support prices. Although the monthly slaughter volume has increased month - on - month, it is lower than market expectations. The spot market is expected to continue to bottom out. Under the pattern of loose supply and demand, the futures market lacks the driving force for continuous upward movement. Attention should be paid to whether the outbreak of the epidemic will lead to early slaughter and over - draw the supply after the New Year [4]. - **Meal Products**: The US soybeans lack trading highlights, and China's demand has been fully traded. South American new - season soybeans are being planted smoothly with good hydro - thermal conditions, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strong. Early - sown soybeans will be listed in January, continuously suppressing US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and with the implementation of auctions, the space for speculating on supply shortages has narrowed. Recently, the market has been speculating about the extension of soybean customs clearance time, and the auction results are good, providing support for the 1 - 5 positive spread. In the short term, there is a sentiment of holding up prices in the spot market, but the spot pressure still exists. There is no driving force for unilateral trading, and the room for the positive spread to continue to strengthen is limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline [7]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: In the Northeast, the grass - roots have a sentiment of holding up prices, and the prices in the production areas are relatively stable. Traders are more willing to sell due to the decline in futures prices, and the volume of grain arriving at the northern ports has increased, with prices slightly decreasing. Attention should be paid to the continuity of the arrival of grain at the northern ports. In North China, the sale of grain changes with price fluctuations, and the number of arriving vehicles is acceptable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is increasing slowly, and they purchase on demand. The demand of feed enterprises has increased, and the procurement of forward orders has begun to increase. In the short term, the increase in the volume of grain on the market has led to a weakening of the futures market. However, the increase in the volume of grain is limited, the grass - roots sentiment of holding up prices still exists, the continuity of the increase in the volume of grain on the market may not be maintained, and enterprises with low inventory still need to replenish their stocks, so the downward range is limited. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of grain sales and the inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: For palm oil, due to the potential concerns of an increase in year - end inventory to 2.9 million tons and a slowdown in exports, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market has been oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to whether the Malaysian palm oil can stop falling and rebound after finding support around Friday. The overall view is that the near - term market is weak and the long - term market is strong. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market has been oscillating downward, with a short - term downward trend breaking through the previous support level. Affected by the decline of Malaysian palm oil, the Dalian palm oil still has the pressure to weaken further, seeking support in the range of 8,200 - 8,300 yuan. For soybean oil, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to finalize the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) next year. Processors cannot obtain clear information in the short term, which may reduce the enthusiasm for large - scale production of biodiesel and the industrial consumption of US soybean oil, dragging down the CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, the National Grain and Oil Trading Center plans to auction 513,800 tons of imported soybeans, with an actual transaction of 323,100 tons. The average transaction price is 3,852.08 yuan/ton, and the transaction ratio is 62.88%. However, the amount of soybeans released is currently limited. As January approaches, the Spring Festival stocking will soon start, and the factory's soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to decrease, supporting the basis quotation. For rapeseed oil, the postponement of the final decision on the 2026 RVO by the EPA has led to a decline in the US soybean oil futures price, dragging down the domestic vegetable oil market, including rapeseed oil. The market is still digesting the news of COFCO's purchase of Canadian rapeseed, increasing concerns about future supply pressure. The market sentiment is weak, and the rapeseed oil price has fallen below the previous low. Attention should be paid to the support at 9,000 yuan for the 05 contract [12]. - **Sugar**: The ICE raw sugar futures closed down because the weather in Brazil is favorable for the growth of sugarcane in the next season. Although the production in Brazil has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, the expectation of a loose supply remains. Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, and its impact on the market is limited. Overall, the loose supply outlook is still an important factor restricting the rebound of raw sugar prices, and the price will maintain a bearish pattern. In the domestic market, the sugar - making rhythm in the main production areas has accelerated. Affected by the increasing supply, the futures market price has weakened, and sugar - making groups have slightly lowered their prices. The new sugar has entered the market, but the market trading atmosphere is still tepid, and the spot trading is average. Currently lacking positive factors, the price has no power to rebound and is expected to remain weak [14]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures closed down due to weak exports and the prospect of increased supply. The US cotton export sales have decreased. The overall US cotton market will maintain an oscillating trend. In the domestic market, the market expects a decline in the planting area in Xinjiang next year, with an optimistic long - term outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, with the inventory of downstream finished products continuing to accumulate, and the profit and cash flow of textile enterprises gradually deteriorating. However, the overall pressure on the downstream industry is still acceptable, and textile enterprises have a certain resilience in their rigid demand for cotton raw materials. There is still limited downward space for cotton prices, but the constraints on cotton prices are increasing, and there is certain pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14,050 - 14,100 [17]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices have shown a trend of gradual recovery from a low level. Affected by this, farmers generally have a sentiment of holding back sales, resulting in a continuous decrease in the slaughter volume of old hens. Combining with the data on the replenishment of chicken seedlings in the early stage, it can be inferred that the number of newly - laying hens is also decreasing, but the overall improvement in inventory is not obvious. Coupled with the recent cooling, which is conducive to egg storage, the supply of eggs is still relatively sufficient. Currently, the positive factors in the market are not strong, and the sales in high - price areas are slow, with prices falling. The expectation of price increases in low - price markets has increased, and the trading volume has improved. The sales speed varies in different markets, and prices are adjusted stably. According to the latest survey data of Mysteel's egg team, on December 16, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.94 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous day, a decrease of 1.05%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.31 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous day, a decrease of 2.24%. The trading link mainly focuses on selling goods, and the sales in some high - price areas are slightly slow. However, the market sentiment of expecting price increases has increased, stimulating the sentiment of holding back sales in some production areas and the enthusiasm of terminal buyers to replenish stocks. Considering the sufficient supply of eggs, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Red Dates - **Futures Prices**: The prices of red date 2601, 2605 (main contract), and 2609 have all decreased, with decreases of 1.62%, 0.66%, and 0.59% respectively. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 170.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.61% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates have decreased by 0.92%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively. The basis of special - grade and first - grade red dates in Cangzhou relative to the main contract has decreased by 22.22% and 7.74% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: The position decreased by 1.89%, the warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the effective forecast increased by 47.46%, and the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 22.09% [1]. Live Pigs - **Futures Prices**: The main - contract basis decreased by 31.03%, the price of live pig 2605 increased by 0.21%, the price of live pig 2603 increased by 0.40%, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 3.33%. The main - contract position increased by 1.29%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in Henan remained unchanged, those in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton, those in Sichuan remained unchanged, those in Liaoning decreased by 150 yuan/ton, those in Guangdong remained unchanged, those in Hunan increased by 50 yuan/ton, and those in Hebei decreased by 50 yuan/ton [4]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 0.33%, the weekly carcass price remained unchanged, the weekly piglet price decreased by 2.94%, the weekly sow price decreased by 0.03%, the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.15%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 2.59%, the weekly purchased - piglet profit increased by 7.21%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [4]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 0.32%, the price of M2605 increased by 0.69%, the basis of M2605 decreased by 2.63%, the basis quotation of Jiangsu spot decreased, the import crushing profit of Brazilian February shipments decreased by 22.9%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 0.83%, the price of RM2605 increased by 0.77%, the basis of RM2605 decreased by 48.10%, the import crushing profit of Canadian January shipments increased by 1.18%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the price of the main soybean - one contract decreased by 0.97%, the basis of the main soybean - one contract increased by 21.05%. The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the price of the main soybean - two contract decreased by 0.63%, the basis of the main soybean - two contract increased by 16.78%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal increased by 6.54%, the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 3.77%, the oil - meal ratio of spot decreased by 0.79%, the oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 1.53%, the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 4.41%, and the 2605 price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 0.24% [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 and the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.36% and 1.29% respectively, the basis decreased by 23.91%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.50%, the bulk grain price in Shekou decreased by 0.41%, the north - south trade profit increased by 105.26%, the CIF price decreased by 0.86%, the import profit increased by 2.94%, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 34.16%, the position decreased by 0.86%, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2.34% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 0.44%, the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged, the basis increased by 14.29%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.38%, the 01 contract price difference between starch and corn decreased by 1.05%, the starch profit in Shandong decreased by 53.85%, the position increased by 0.22%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.47%, the price of Y2605 decreased by 0.61%, the basis increased by 3.05%, the basis quotation remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.82%, the price of P2605 decreased by 0.96%, the basis increased by 20.69%, the basis quotation increased, the import cost of Guangzhou Port in May decreased by 0.99%, the import profit increased by 1.68%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 2.23%, the price of OI605 decreased by 1.33%, the basis decreased by 21.59%, the basis quotation remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2.02% [12]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean oil decreased by 16.67%, the 05 - 09 spread of palm oil decreased by 15.49%, the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 14.58%, the spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 2.54%, the 2601 price difference between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 2.54%, the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 13.64%, and the 2601 price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 6.21% [12]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 1.49%, the price of sugar 2605 decreased by 1.42%, the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.54%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.95%, the main - contract position increased by 12.09%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the effective forecast remained unchanged [14]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 0.37% and 0.66% respectively. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased by 35.29% and 44.32% respectively. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) decreased by 0.86%, the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) decreased by 0.87%, the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) and Nanning decreased by 1.34%, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) and Nanning decreased by 31.33% [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 23.24%, the cumulative national sugar sales decreased by 42.53%, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 73.87%, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 68.63%, the national cumulative sugar sales rate decreased by 24.75%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased by 20.05%, the national industrial inventory decreased by 7.40%, the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 80.43%, the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 110.00%, and the sugar import volume increased by 38.89% [14]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 260

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月17日 厂发期货 GE FUTURES 钢材产业期现日报 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 碳跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | 190 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3150 | 0 | 60 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3260 | 3260 | 0 | 170 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3081 | 3074 | 7 | 199 | | | 些纹钢10合约 | 3112 | 3103 | ರಿ | 168 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3090 | 3083 | 7 | 190 | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3240 | 30 | 16 | | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3180 | 3170 | 10 | -74 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月17日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | 1.85 | 8.31 | 89.30% | 68.9096 | -3.39 | 43.80% | H期现价来 | -0.12 | 39.60% | 期现价差 | IC用现价差 | | | | | | 8 88 | 7.04 | 99.10% | 93.70% | 7.38 | 92.80% | IM期现价差 | 8.06 | 95.00% | 次月-当月 | -19.40 | -1.60 | 20.90% | 23.40% | | | | -48.00 | 零月-当月 | 21.30 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, improving short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market is still affected by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations and is in a state of shock and correction [3] - Market sentiment has improved, and interest rates have declined slightly. The performance of Treasury bond futures is differentiated, with large expected fluctuations [3] - The US non - farm payroll data is relatively weak. Precious metals rebounded after a decline during the session, with platinum and palladium showing a strong trend [3] - The iron ore inventory at ports has increased as iron - making output has decreased, and iron ore has rebounded in shock [3] - The second round of coke price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trade price has led the decline [3] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Carbonate lithium (LC2605) is expected to fluctuate strongly; Styrene (EB2602) is expected to fluctuate weakly; Coking coal (JM2605) is expected to rebound from the bottom; Palm oil (P2605) is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] All - Variety Daily Reviews and Operation Suggestions Stock Index Futures - Affected by concerns about Asia - Pacific market liquidity, stock index futures have corrected across the board. With the current market trend unclear, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see [3] Treasury Bond Futures - The market sentiment has warmed up, and interest rates have declined slightly. The performance of Treasury bond futures is differentiated. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for positive arbitrage and basis widening opportunities in the 2603 contract [3] Precious Metals - Due to the relatively weak US non - farm payroll data, precious metals rebounded after a decline during the session. It is recommended to buy after a correction for gold; be cautious about silver entering the overbought zone; and maintain a low - buying strategy for platinum and palladium [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2602 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Steel and Iron Ore - With iron - making output at a low level, it is recommended to go long on the January rebar - to - iron - ore ratio. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate upwards, with a reference range of 730 - 800 [3] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal is expected to rebound from an oversold position, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150, and it is recommended to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Coke is expected to rebound in shock, with a reference range of 1450 - 1600, and it is also recommended to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread [3] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the support at 90000 - 91000. Aluminum prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. For other non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are provided according to their fundamentals [3] New Energy - Carbonate lithium is expected to be strongly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. Polysilicon is oscillating at a high level, with a reference range of 50000 - 60000 [3] Chemicals - Different chemical products such as PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc. have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product, such as short - term high - level oscillation, reverse spread, etc. [3] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate narrowly. Hog futures are in a bottom - grinding market. Corn is expected to adjust in shock. Oils are expected to be bearish in the short term. Sugar is expected to decline in shock. Other agricultural products also have corresponding price trends and trading suggestions [3]

Report Information - Report Title: All-variety Spread Daily Report [3] - Date: December 17, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, GF Futures Research Institute [3] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Futures price is 5558, spot price is 5482, with a basis rate of 1.39% and a historical quantile of 64.50% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Futures price is 5736, spot price is 5810, with a basis rate of 1.29% and a historical quantile of 39.60% [1] - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Futures price is 3081, spot price is 3280, with a basis rate of 6.45% and a historical quantile of 71.30% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Futures price is 3246, spot price is 3270, with a basis rate of 0.74% and a historical quantile of 28.40% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Futures price is 761, spot price is 832, with a basis rate of 9.38% and a historical quantile of 55.40% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price is 1581, spot price is 1515, with a basis rate of 4.39% and a historical quantile of 88.32% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Futures price is 1139, spot price is 1068, with a basis rate of 6.70% and a historical quantile of 42.10% [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2602)**: Futures price is 91920, spot price is 91700, with a basis of -220, a basis rate of -0.24% and a historical quantile of 27.70% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: Futures price is 21630, spot price is 21845, with a basis of -215, a basis rate of -0.98% and a historical quantile of 4.79% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Futures price is 2541, spot price is 2788, with a basis of 247, a basis rate of 9.72% and a historical quantile of 82.15% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2601)**: Futures price is 23030, spot price is 23110, with a basis of 80, a basis rate of 0.35% and a historical quantile of 70.20% [1] - **Tin (SN2601)**: Futures price is 320620, spot price is 320500, with a basis of -120, a basis rate of -0.04% and a historical quantile of 46.87% [1] - **Nickel (NI2601)**: Futures price is 112290, spot price is 112350, with a basis of 60, a basis rate of 0.05% and a historical quantile of 53.33% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2602)**: Futures price is 12870, spot price is 12320, with a basis of -4750, a basis rate of -4.72% and a historical quantile of 92.48% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Futures price is 100600, spot price is 95850, with a basis of -4750, a basis rate of -4.72% and a historical quantile of 6.60% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: Futures price is 835, spot price is 8365, with a basis of 7530, a basis rate of 9.98% and a historical quantile of 56.14% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2602)**: Futures price is 964.7, spot price is 971.4, with a basis of -6.8, a basis rate of -0.69% and a historical quantile of 0.30% [1] - **Silver (AG2602)**: Futures price is 14649.0, spot price is 14666.0, with a basis of -17.0, a basis rate of -0.12% and a historical quantile of 59.20% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Futures price is 2777.0, spot price is 3060, with a basis of 283.0, a basis rate of 10.19% and a historical quantile of 67.90% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Futures price is 7872.0, spot price is 8290, with a basis of 418.0, a basis rate of 5.31% and a historical quantile of 72.10% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Futures price is 8410.0, spot price is 8460, with a basis of 50.0, a basis rate of 0.59% and a historical quantile of 35.40% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM2605)**: Futures price is 2359.0, spot price is 2500, with a basis of 141.0, a basis rate of 5.98% and a historical quantile of 75.90% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI2605)**: Futures price is 9063.0, spot price is 9540, with a basis of 477.0, a basis rate of 5.25% and a historical quantile of 90.50% [1] - **Corn (C2603)**: Futures price is 2202.0, spot price is 2290, with a basis of 88.0, a basis rate of 4.00% and a historical quantile of 76.70% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: Futures price is 2502.0, spot price is 2650, with a basis of 148.0, a basis rate of 5.92% and a historical quantile of 74.70% [1] - **Live Hogs (H2603)**: Futures price is 114

曹剑兰 原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月17日 数据来源:海关总署、木联数据、Wind、广发期货研究所。清仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表 达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或调价,投资者揭此报资,风险营担,本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,做权归 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行压何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 | ZOO 19556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月16日 | 12月15日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 761.5 | 753.5 | ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月17日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | 1.85 | 8.31 | 89.30% | 68.9096 | -3.39 | 43.80% | H期现价来 | -0.12 | 39.60% | 期现价差 | IC用现价差 | | | | | | 8 88 | 7.04 | 99.10% | 93.70% | 7.38 | 92.80% | IM期现价差 | 8.06 | 95.00% | 次月-当月 | -19.40 | -1.60 | 20.90% | 23.40% | | | | -48.00 | 零月-当月 | 21.30 ...