铁矿石期货周报 供 应 压 力 增 加 ， 短 期 铁 水 有 望 维 持 高 位 徐艺丹 投资咨询资格：Z0020017 期货从业资格：F03125507 联系方式：020-88818017 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 快速开户 微信公众号 短期观点 品种 主要观点 本周操作建议 上周操作建议 供应：本周全球发运环比小幅回升。全球发运-157.3万吨至3352.7万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2842.1万吨，环比减少 77.3万吨。澳洲发运量2059.3万吨，环比减少110.6万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1797.1万吨，环比减少94.9万吨。巴西发运 量782.8万吨，环比增加33.2万吨。45港口到港量2384.5万吨，环比减少224.8万吨。 需求：日均铁水产量242.18万吨，环比+0.57万吨；高炉开工率83.82%，环比+0.41%；高炉炼铁产能利用率90.79%， 环比+0.21个百分点；钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比+0.87%。 铁矿石（I） 库存：截至6月19日，45港库存13894.16万吨，环比-38.98万吨；日均疏港量环比回升，本周到港量回落叠加疏 ...

本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 苯乙烯主要观点：原油端，受伊以冲突影响延续上涨趋势；周内美国介入与否尚存不确定性，届时不排除局势进一步升级，油价短期波动或剧烈。纯苯端，因原油高位支撑， 纯苯估值比价偏低向上存弹性。基本面看国内纯苯供需双增，下游苯乙烯复产支撑需求但非苯乙烯下游利润堪忧，进口方面船期后续到港有增多，港口库存仍表现出去化不畅的供 需矛盾，价格上方空间或因此受限。苯乙烯在复产下供增需减，上游检修装置回归叠加利润起色刺激意愿，供应压力增大；下游3S在此轮事件中价格跟涨乏力利润承压，叠加国补 和关税影响终端需求并不过分乐观。苯乙烯供需边际或逐步转弱，关注后续库存止降累库节点。短期地缘扰动仍是主要定价因素，原油波动剧烈建议谨慎参与。中期结合苯乙烯基 本面看高价仍存压力，可关注原油共振的高空机会。 期货策略建议：单边暂观望，中期关注原油共振的高空机会 期权策略建议：暂观望 01 纯苯 壹 2025年苯乙烯、纯苯链投产计划 苯乙烯周报 E B ：原油扰动剧烈 ， 关注苯乙烯边际转弱和累库时点 广发期货研究所 化工组 金果实 从业资格：F3083706 投 ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3090 | 3090 | O | 105 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | 215 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3180 | 3170 | 10 | 195 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2987 | 2979 | 8 | 103 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2992 | 2986 | 6 | 08 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 5985 | 2979 | 6 | 105 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3200 | 3190 | 10 | ਰੇਤੇ | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3110 | 3100 | 10 | 3 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 318 ...

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 国君多空头明显减仓 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 总持仓下降 | 中信国君多空头均减仓千手以上 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信国君多空头均减仓千手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信多头大幅减仓 7000 手以上 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 81,541.0 25,313.0 37,469.0 89,544.0 -29,611.0 -11,156.0 -19,814.0 -28,914.0 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 IF IH IC IM 主 ...

| 品种/合约 | 现货价格 | 期货价格 | 星差 | 基差率 | 历史分位数 | 现货参考 | 留注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 (SF509) | 5478 | 5300 | 178 | 3.36% | 81.00% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | | | 硅锰 (SM509) | 5770 | 5616 | 154 | 2.74% | 51.20% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3090 | 2992 | 08 | 3.28% | 47.80% | HRB40020mm:上海 | | | 热卷(HC2510) | 3200 | 3116 | 84 | 2.70% | 51.40% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | 铁矿石 (12509) | 758 | 703 | રેર | 7.79% | 45.00% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | | | 焦炭 (J2509) | 1275 | 1385 | ...

2025年6月23日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 812.0 | 798.0 | 14.0 | 1.75% | | | 原木2509 | 797.5 | 794.0 | 3.5 | 0.44% | | | 原木2511 | 794.0 | 791.5 | 2.5 | 0.32% | | | 7-9价差 | 14.5 | 4.0 | 10.5 | | | | 9-11价差 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | 18.0 | 6.5 | 11.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -62.0 | -48.0 | -14.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -47.5 | -44.0 | -3.5 | | | | 11合约基差 | -44.0 | -41.5 | -2.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 730.0 | 730.0 | 0 | ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 免费声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但厂发期货对这些信息的能确性及完整体不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人 员的不同观点、见解及分析方法。并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。 在任何情况下。 报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,题权归广发期货所有,未经 构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价。 投资者据此投资, 广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为广发期货。 6 关注微信公众号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 些业期现日报 | 品中 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7347 | 7399 | -55 | -0.70% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7415 | 7462 | -47 | -0.63% ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Zinc - The zinc market is in a long - term supply - side easing cycle. If the mine - end growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, after the "rush to export", if the tariff policy leads to insufficient terminal consumption resilience, the center of zinc prices may move down. In the long - term, a short - selling approach is recommended, focusing on the TC growth rate and marginal changes in downstream demand. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21000 - 21500 [2]. Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices do not have a clear and smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectation restricts the upside space. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate. The "rush to export" demand has advanced subsequent demand, and the real demand side may face pressure in Q3. The US copper import tariff policy is a major uncertain variable. The main contract is expected to move between 77000 - 79500 [5]. Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. Considering the pessimistic demand expectation, pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm. A short - selling approach is recommended at 260,000 - 265,000 based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is under continuous pressure from industrial overcapacity and weak consumption. In the short term, the fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in a range. The main contract is expected to move between 118000 - 124000. Pay attention to the short - term disturbances from news [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak state. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the overall demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short term, the fundamentals are still under pressure. Pay attention to the steel mill's production - cut rhythm. The main contract is expected to move between 12400 - 13000 [12]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose. The medium - term support is around the cash cost of 2700. For electrolytic aluminum, the LME inventory decline and low domestic inventory support aluminum prices, with the support level around 20000. However, there is still a possibility of adjustment under the conditions of LME warehousing, domestic inventory accumulation, and weakening demand [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still under pressure. In June, there may be an oversupply situation. The market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract expected to move between 56000 - 62000. Pay attention to the upstream dynamics [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 585 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.32 [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; imports were 2.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.40%; exports were 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 75.76%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 58.60%, 55.12%, and 59.00% respectively. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.24% to 7.96 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.60% to 12.7 million tons [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.36% to 78400 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 1206 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.06 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%; imports were 25.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production was 75.82%, and that of recycled copper rod production was 29.03%. The domestic social inventory increased by 0.76% to 14.59 million tons, the bonded - area inventory increased by 7.71% to 6.43 million tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.11% to 10.08 million tons, the LME inventory decreased by 3.99% to 9.92 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.78% to 19.99 million tons [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.42% to 263300 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 452.13% to 80.99 US dollars/ton. The import loss was - 10123 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.12 [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, tin ore imports were 13449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%; SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%; refined tin imports were 2076 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.04%; exports were 1770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. The SMM refined tin average operating rate was 61.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.25% to 120625 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 was - 193 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was - 2926 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [9]. - **Cost and New - Energy Material Prices**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 4.16% to 120887 yuan/ton. The battery - grade nickel sulfate average price decreased by 0.67% to 27400 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In May, China's refined nickel production was 35350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; imports were 8832 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.30% to 25693 tons, the social inventory increased by 0.02% to 39383 tons, the LME inventory increased by 0.76% to 205140 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.44% to 699972 tons [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.78% to 12700 yuan/ton. The basis difference increased by 23.73% to 365 yuan/ton [12]. - **Raw - Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remained unchanged at 60 US dollars/wet ton, and the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.32% to 921 yuan/nickel point [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 179.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.64% to 53.42 million tons, and the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.83% to 33.02 million tons [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.24% to 20720 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 180 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 0.79% to 3750 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, etc. showed different degrees of change. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.39% to 44.90 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.59% to 34.5 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.08% to 60400 yuan/ton. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 447.37% to 1040 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%; demand was 83960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83%. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.49% to 97637 tons [15].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年6月23日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | F期现价差 | -73.04 | -70.35 | 1.60% | 2.40% | | | | | | | H期现价差 | -32.00 | 1.60% | -38.32 | 0.60% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -51.11 | -52.08 | 17.60% | 18.80% | IM期到价差 | 1.20% | -211.79 | -213.97 | 5.00% | | -44.80 | 5.80% | 次月-景月 | -2.80 | 0.40% | -75.60 ...

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月23日 | | | | 寇帶斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13950 | 13950 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | 50 | -80 | 130 | 162.50% | | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13850 | -100 | -0.72% | 元/吨 | | 非标价差 | -150 | -180 | 30 | 16.67% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 48.05 | 48.30 | -0.25 | -0.52% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 57.75 | 57.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶 ...