Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View of the Report - The current market liquidity remains abundant, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high. Under the influence of internal and external positive factors, market sentiment is good, and stock index futures may continue to run strongly. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short-term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward movement. The market risk appetite is still high, and the gold price may be disturbed in the short term, but the probability of an interest rate cut in September is still high, providing support for the gold price, which is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term. The silver price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, but will be mainly based on fundamental logic in the medium term. The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September boosts the copper price, while the domestic copper downstream demand is weak, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly. The recent decline in the US dollar index, but the pressure on the downstream demand of aluminum, leads to the weak operation of the aluminum price. The production and inventory of alumina both increase, with a weak fundamental situation, but the rainy season in Guinea reduces the bauxite shipment volume, and considering the anti-involution market may continue, attention can be paid to the opportunity of laying out long positions in the far month. The zinc price is under great pressure due to the increase in inventory and the recovery of supply. Considering the potential risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, short selling should be cautious, and the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions can still be continuously concerned before the peak season. The macro-optimistic sentiment cools slightly. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remains stable, and the demand side performs generally. The nickel price runs in a wide range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes. It is recommended to focus on short-term trading and wait for the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions. In the long term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure. The macro-optimistic sentiment cools slightly. The price of raw material nickel iron rises steadily, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and steel mills resume production one after another after profit repair. Attention should be paid to the actual production situation of steel mills. The stainless steel futures run in a volatile manner in the short term, dominated by the macro situation. It is recommended to focus on short-term trading, wait for the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions, and pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage between futures and spot. Fundamentally, tin is still in a situation of weak supply and demand. After a full correction, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price. The supply of industrial silicon in the southwest and northwest regions resumes, with great hedging pressure and strong market sentiment. The polysilicon has an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits. The resource end of scrap steel is frequently disturbed, and the short-term replenishment volume of the downstream is large, with limited subsequent replenishment space. The cost of electric furnace valley electricity provides a short-term support range for rebar, and the upward driving force follows coal. The upward driving force of hot-rolled coil follows the cost support anchored by coal, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The near-month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity in the far month. The anti-involution in ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is long-term, and in the short term, it is mainly affected by macro positives, with prices showing a strong trend. The glass still has a weak reality but strong expectations, with a pattern of near weakness and far strength. The soda ash still has a weak reality, affected by supply disturbances and macro positives, also showing a pattern of near weakness and far strength. The high-level meeting mentioned "anti-involution", and the market expects a bull market similar to the supply-side reform in 2015. Although it cannot be compared in all aspects, since it cannot be falsified in the short term at the trading level, short positions on the market should be temporarily avoided, and industrial customers should seize the opportunity of premium to establish positive arbitrage positions between futures and spot. The logic of coke is the same as that of coking coal, and the opportunity of selling hedging when the futures price has a premium should be mainly grasped. The MPOB report is less bearish than expected, and the production in August may be affected by heavy rainfall, with a short-term positive expectation difference. Indonesia's official announcement of implementing B50 next year brings a long-term "strong expectation" for palm oil. The expected reduction in soybean arrivals, the peak consumption season in the fourth quarter, and the opening of the export trade flow bring the expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, leading to a revaluation of soybean oil. The USDA's reduction of the new crop area in August and the Sino-US trade relationship lead to the firmness of the CBOT soybean price and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybean exports, supporting the upward movement of soybean oil from the raw material cost side. The reduction in the production of rapeseed in Russia and Ukraine and the less-than-expected increase in the production of sunflower seeds in the Black Sea region support the price of rapeseed oil in the new crushing season. The Ministry of Commerce's preliminary ruling that Canadian rapeseed is dumped will increase the customs duty deposit from August 14, bringing the expectation of a significant reduction in subsequent rapeseed supply. Cotton increases in positions and rises in the short term, dominated by the logic of a short squeeze in the near month. The height of the 01 contract is limited, and attention should be paid to the time window from the end of July to the beginning of August and the release of the sliding duty quota. White sugar runs strongly, with the bottom divergence rebound of raw sugar and the peak season demand, but the height is limited, and attention should be paid to the range fluctuation between 5600 - 6000. The supply and demand of old crops tend to be tight, but the pressure of warehouse receipts is large, and the expected rebound space of C09 is limited. Considering the expected selling pressure of new-season corn during the autumn harvest and the reduction in planting cost, a bearish view is maintained for the C11 and C01 contracts. The supply and demand balance sheet of new-season US soybeans is tight. Under the current Sino-US trade policy, the expectation of the Brazilian premium remains firm. Under the expectation of an increase in import cost, MO1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, but currently, the pressure on the domestic spot is still large, and the low basis restricts the increase of the futures price in the short term. Overall, the idea of buying on dips should be adopted. The external quotation of pulp is raised, with the price of Brazilian pulp increasing by $20 per ton in August, and the domestic inventory shows a reduction; but the recent decline in commodity futures is expected to lead to a volatile operation. The fundamentals of the log spot have improved recently, mainly reflected in the increase in the external quotation and the reduction of domestic port inventory; however, the delivery pressure in Chongqing restricts the motivation of log bulls to take delivery, and it is expected to fluctuate between 810 - 840 yuan/m³. The near-month contract of live pigs is dragged down by the spot and is relatively weak. The inventory will gradually recover in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the weight reduction and consumption situation. There are peak season expectations for the 11 and 01 contracts. The meeting between the US and Russia has not reached an agreement yet, but the progress is good; OPEC+ continues to increase production; the peak consumption season in Europe and the US has reached its peak, and there is a weakening trend later. The short-term supply and demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent, following crude oil; the cost disturbance and the recovery of demand balance each other, with limited fluctuations. The rainfall in the domestic rubber-producing areas causes disturbances, and the raw material cost provides strong support; the inventory reduction speed is slow; and the state reserve conducts a large amount of dumping. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the fundamental situation of crude oil remains loose; the fundamental situation of synthetic rubber is severe, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand; BR runs stably in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance situation of butadiene rubber plants. The supply of PTA has shrunk, and the crude oil price has slightly declined. The downstream load of polyester has decreased to 88%. The PTA port has a slight reduction in inventory, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The coal price has slightly increased. The overall performance of the commodity sentiment has slightly weakened. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants has been postponed, the supply side has shrunk, and the market expects a reduction in future arrivals. The short fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, and the maintenance of short fiber factories has increased. Under the condition of a high basis, the cost of short fiber is closely followed, and there is no independent market in the market currently. The price of pure benzene has slightly declined, the shipment of styrene is active, and the crude oil price has weakened. The operating load of styrene plants has recovered, and the basis of styrene has significantly weakened. The export sentiment has slightly eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, with limited upward space; there is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. The macro sentiment is warm; there are many maintenance operations; the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price fluctuates weakly. The maintenance support is limited; the orders are mainly for rigid needs; the macro situation is warm, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The macro sentiment is warm; the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period; the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, with the futures price fluctuating strongly. The spot is about to enter the peak season; the spot price has fallen to a low level; the coking coal price has risen again, and the macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the fundamental situation of crude oil remains loose; the market expects a reduction in future arrivals. The supply of short fiber has shrunk, and the downstream load of polyester has decreased. The PTA port has a slight reduction in inventory, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The coal price has slightly increased, and the overall performance of the commodity sentiment has slightly weakened. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants has been postponed, and the supply side has shrunk. The short fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, and the maintenance of short fiber factories has increased. Under the condition of a high basis, the cost of short fiber is closely followed. The price of pure benzene has slightly declined, the shipment of styrene is active, and the crude oil price has weakened. The operating load of styrene plants has recovered, and the basis of styrene has significantly weakened. The export sentiment has slightly eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, with limited upward space; there is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. The macro sentiment is warm; there are many maintenance operations; the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price fluctuates weakly. The maintenance support is limited; the orders are mainly for rigid needs; the macro situation is warm, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The macro sentiment is warm; the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period; the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, with the futures price fluctuating strongly. The spot is about to enter the peak season; the spot price has fallen to a low level; the coking coal price has risen again, and the macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, the supply of crude oil is abundant, and the synthetic rubber market is severe, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid needs. PTA supply contracts, crude oil prices fall slightly, polyester downstream load drops to 88%, PTA port inventory decreases slightly, and polyester replenishment willingness is low. Coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment weakens, overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance is postponed, and supply contracts. Short - fiber warehouse receipt registration is low, factory maintenance increases, and with a high basis, cost follows closely and there is no independent market. Pure benzene prices fall slightly, styrene shipments are active, crude oil prices weaken, styrene plant load recovers, and the basis weakens significantly. Urea export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient with limited upside, but there is anti - involution and cost support below. Macro sentiment is warm, there are many maintenance operations, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and prices fluctuate weakly. Maintenance support is limited, orders are for rigid needs, macro is warm, and futures prices fluctuate strongly. Macro sentiment is warm, maintenance decreases, downstream enters the off - season, supply pressure increases, and futures prices fluctuate strongly. Spot is about to enter the peak season, spot prices are low, coking coal prices rise again, and macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, the supply of LPG is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand has a repair expectation; the warehouse receipts have reached a new high, and attention should be paid to the main contract delivery and the spread between September and October. The signal of the peak of the freight rate of the European container shipping line appears; the European ports are still congested; and there are many additional ships in August. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock index futures may continue to run strongly due to abundant market liquidity and positive factors [1] - Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are reminded [1] - Gold price may be disturbed in the short term but has support from the expected interest rate cut in September [1] - Silver price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term and follow fundamental logic in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price may fluctuate strongly due to the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and weak domestic downstream demand [1] - Aluminum price runs weakly due to the pressure on downstream demand [1] - Alumina has a weak fundamental situation, but the rainy season in Guinea and the anti - involution market bring opportunities for long positions in the far month [1] - Zinc price is under pressure from inventory increase and supply recovery, and short - selling should be cautious [1] - Nickel price runs in a wide range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes [1] - Stainless steel futures run in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [1] - Tin provides an opportunity of going long at a low price after a full correction [1] Black Metals - Rebar is supported by the cost of electric furnace valley electricity, and the upward driving force follows coal [1] - Hot - rolled coil is slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward driving force follows coal - anchored cost support [1] - Iron ore has an upward opportunity in the far month, although the near - month is restricted by production cuts [1] - Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon prices are expected to be strong due to long - term anti - involution and short - term macro positives [1] - Glass and soda ash show a pattern of near weakness and far strength [1] - Coke and coking coal: attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling hedging when the futures price has a premium [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil has a short - term positive expectation difference and a long - term "strong expectation" [1] - Soybean oil is re - valued due to the expected inventory reduction in the fourth quarter and cost support [1] - Rapeseed oil is supported by production reduction and supply reduction expectations [1] - Cotton is affected by the short - squeeze logic in the near month, and attention should be paid to the time window and quota release [1] - White sugar runs strongly but with limited height [1] - Corn: C09 has limited rebound space, and C11 and C01 are bearish [1] - Soybean: MO1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and a dip - buying strategy is recommended [1] - Pulp is expected to fluctuate due to price increase and inventory reduction [1] - Log is expected to fluctuate within a certain range due to improved fundamentals and delivery pressure [1] - Live pigs' near - month contracts are weak, and there are peak - season expectations for 11 and 01 contracts [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and its related products (fuel oil, LPG) are affected by OPEC+ production increase and market demand trends [1] - Rubber (natural rubber, BR rubber) is affected by factors such as rainfall, inventory, and supply - demand fundamentals [1] - PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Urea has limited upward space due to export and demand, but has support below [1] Other - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may peak, with congested ports and additional ships [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - During the new crushing season alternation period, the supply is diversified, the competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar intensifies, and it is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [3] - If Brazil's production exceeds expectations or India relaxes exports, raw sugar may test the previous low again [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - In the domestic market, on August 18, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 6040 yuan/ton with no change; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong it was 6050 yuan/ton with no change [3] - SR09 was 5736, down 4; SR01 was 5672, up 8; SR09 - 01 was 64, down 12 [3] Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.2015, up 0.0020; the exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [3] - The ice raw sugar主力 was 16.47 with no change; the London white sugar主力 was 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 was 66.13 with no change [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA production decreased slightly, and port inventory increased by 20,000 tons this week. The spread between PX and naphtha expanded to $260, and the weak benzene price restricted the further increase of PX production. The spread between PX and MX recovered to around $140, and the repair of short - process profit was the main driving force for the recovery of PX load. Polyester downstream load remained at around 88%, and the inventory of polyester factories was optimistic. The main production - reducing factories in polyester were concentrated in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties. With the recent improvement in sales and inventory reduction, and the recovery of PTA price, the load of the weaving end increased slightly [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Coal prices recovered, and MEG prices also recovered. The macro - sentiment weakened slightly, and the chemical industry followed the weakening sentiment of commodities. Overseas MEG plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, was continuously postponed, which might have a significant impact on the market outlook and boosted MEG prices. The later arrival volume of MEG decreased. Polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price increased from 486.3 yuan/barrel on August 15th to 486.5 yuan/barrel on August 18th, with an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC spread increased from 1182.0 yuan/ton to 1210.6 yuan/ton, with an increase of 28.55 yuan/ton. PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3345 to 1.3424, with an increase of 0.0079. CFR China PX price increased from 827 to 833, with an increase of 6. PX - naphtha spread increased from 256 to 261, with an increase of 5 [2]. - PTA主力期价 increased from 4716 yuan/ton to 4746 yuan/ton, with an increase of 30 yuan/ton. PTA spot price increased from 4660 to 4670, with an increase of 10 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee decreased from 214.0 yuan/ton to 184.7 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 29.2 yuan/ton. Disk processing fee increased from 260.0 yuan/ton to 260.7 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton. PTA仓单数量 decreased from 44709 to 41907, with a decrease of 2802 [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 4369 yuan/ton to 4346 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 23 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (91.73) yuan/ton to (91.92) yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton. MEG内盘 decreased from 4462 to 4441, with a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain Starting Conditions - PX starting rate remained at 80.38%. PTA starting rate remained at 77.67%. MEG starting rate increased from 55.22% to 56.93%, with an increase of 1.71%. Polyester load increased from 86.88% to 87.30%, with an increase of 0.42% [2]. Product Performance - In polyester filament, POY150D/48F price remained at 6770, POY cash flow decreased from 41 to 39, with a decrease of 2. FDY150D/96F price increased from 7095 to 7100, with an increase of 5. FDY cash flow increased from (134) to (131), with an increase of 3. DTY150D/48F price remained at 7955, DTY cash flow decreased from 26 to 24, with a decrease of 2. Filament sales increased from 36% to 46%, with an increase of 10% [2]. - In polyester short - fiber, 1.4D direct - spun polyester short - fiber price decreased from 6555 to 6550, with a decrease of 5. Polyester short - fiber cash flow decreased from 176 to 169, with a decrease of 7. Short - fiber sales decreased from 49% to 40%, with a decrease of 9% [2]. - In polyester chips, semi - bright chip price increased from 5785 to 5800, with an increase of 15. Chip cash flow increased from (44) to (31), with an increase of 13. Chip sales increased from 54% to 70%, with an increase of 16% [2]. Device Maintenance An East - China supplier's 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [2].

Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Domestic PTA production decreased slightly, and PTA port inventory increased by 20,000 tons this week [2] - The spread between PX and naphtha expanded to $260, and the weak benzene price restrained the further increase of PX production [2] - The spread between PX and MX recovered to around $140, and the repair of short - process profit was the main driving force for the recovery of PX load [2] - The downstream load of polyester remained at around 88%, and the inventory of polyester factories was optimistic [2] - The main polyester production - cut factories were concentrated in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties [2] - With the recent improvement in production and sales, inventory reduction, and the recovery of PTA price, the load of the weaving end increased slightly [2] Data Summary Spot Price and Change - PTA spot price increased from 4650 to 4660, up 10 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4468 to 4462, down 6 [2] - 1.4D straight - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6505 to 6555, up 50 [2] - Polyester staple fiber basis decreased from 165 to 160, down 5 [2] - 9 - 10 spread decreased from 82 to 94, down 12 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, up 6 [2] - 1.4D straight - spun and imitation large - chemical spread increased from 805 to 855, up 50 [2] - East China water bottle chip increased from 5882 to 5893, up 11 [2] - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip increased from 5882 to 5893, up 11 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip increased from 5982 to 5663, up 11 [2] - External - market water bottle chip remained at 770, unchanged [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 409 to 414, up 4.46 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10300, unchanged [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3795 to 3745, down 50 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16300, unchanged [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15050 to 15080, up 30 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1298 to 1254, down 44.49 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained at 7060, unchanged [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 387 to 381, down 6.54 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber remained at 7330, unchanged [2] Industry Load and Production and Sales - Straight - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, down 0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from - 19.00% to 62.00%, up 43.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) decreased from 66.00% to 65.00%, down 0.01 [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, down 0.06 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of pulp are strongly driven, but commodity futures are weak. It is expected that pulp futures will fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: On August 18, 2025, SP2601 was 5476, down 0.90% day-on-day and up 0.07% week-on-week; SP2511 was 5308, down 0.23% day-on-day and up 0.08% week-on-week; SP2509 was 5200, down 0.84% day-on-day and down 0.04% week-on-week [1] - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week; Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged day-on-day and up 0.95% week-on-week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged day-on-day and up 1.20% week-on-week [1] - Foreign offers: Chilean Silver Star's foreign offer was 720, down 2.70% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510, up 4.08% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month-on-month [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month-on-month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - Import volume in June 2025: Coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month-on-month compared to May; Broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month-on-month compared to May [1] - Shipment volume to China in May 2025 was 140 tons, up 3.30% month-on-month compared to April [1] - Domestic production: Broadleaf pulp and Chemimechanical pulp showed fluctuations in different periods [1] - Supply-side news: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commercial pulp production in the next 12 months will be about 3.5% lower than its annual nominal capacity; Asia Symbol announced a 150 yuan/ton increase in the acceptance price of broadleaf pulp, only for long-term contract customers; pulp foreign offers decreased in volume and increased in price [1] Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the prices of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp overall [2] Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, an increase of 5.1 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% month-on-month increase, showing an inventory accumulation trend [2] Pulp Valuation Data - On August 18, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was -6, with a quantile level of 0.68; the Silver Star basis was 544, with a quantile level of 0.857 [1] - On August 18, 2025, the import profit of Coniferous pulp Silver Star was -34, with a quantile level of 0.547; the import profit of Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 18, with a quantile level of 0.653 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The market has basically digested the suspension of lithium mines in Jiangxi, and the spot price has risen. If the scope of production cuts does not further expand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 84,600 yuan/ton, up 1,900 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1,900 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 89,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.86%; lithium carbonate 2510 is 89,280 yuan/ton, up 4.64%; lithium carbonate 2511 is 89,240 yuan/ton, up 4.67%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 89,240 yuan/ton, up 4.86%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 89,040 yuan/ton, up 4.95% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 978 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,385 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,185 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 7,700 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 8,850 yuan/ton, up 410 yuan/ton [1][2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 4,640 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 20 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 60 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 142,256 tons, down 162 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 49,693 tons, down 1,306 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 48,283 tons, up 124 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 44,280 tons, up 1,020 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 23,555 tons, up 70 tons [2] Production Profit - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 82,343 yuan/ton, and the profit is 1,069 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 86,253 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 4,968 yuan/ton [2] Company News - Ganfeng Lithium announced on the evening of August 12 to jointly develop the Pozuelos - Pastos Grandes salt lake basin in Argentina with Lithium Argentina AG, with a planned annual production capacity of up to 150,000 tons of LCE lithium products [2] - Albemarle's lithium plant in Chile resumed normal operation after an accident last week [2] - Jiangte Motor announced on August 13 that it has multiple mining and exploration rights in Yichun, with lithium ore resources of over 100 million tons. The Qikeng lithium mine, with a mining license, has an ore resource reserve of 72.93 million tons at a Li20 average grade of 0.44%, and 126.67 million tons at a Li20 average grade of 0.39% [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - Methanol prices in many domestic regions increased slightly. In the northwest main production area, enterprise inventories were low, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, leading to higher auction transaction prices. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth new order transactions in the afternoon, with some enterprises halting sales and raising prices, pushing up spot prices. However, downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and procurement became more rational after previous low - price replenishment. The market trend depends on downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday [1]. - Specific price changes: prices of Sichuan - Chongqing LPG decreased by 135 to 4130, international natural gas decreased by 0.31 to 10.52, and prices in domestic regions such as Taicang, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong decreased by 20 [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production decreased by 600 to 271075, and the domestic start - up rate decreased by 0.19 to 83.92, while the international start - up rate remained unchanged at 71.67 [1]. - The arrival volume and enterprise inventory remained unchanged at 35.80 and 293688 respectively, and the port inventory remained unchanged at 925480 [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained unchanged at 240800 [1]. Downstream Start - up - The start - up rates of most downstream industries remained unchanged, such as the MTOH start - up rate at 83.89, the dimethyl ether start - up rate at 5.33, etc. [1]. Associated Product Prices - Dimethyl ether prices increased by 20 to 3320, acetic acid prices increased by 40 to 2200, while MTBE AP prices decreased by 30 to 5020 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall spot market is stable, with an increase in both the number of second - fattened pigs being sold and the sales volume. The monthly growth rate of pig slaughter reaches its peak in October, and the weight is gradually decreasing but still has room to fall. The weight reduction of pigs in farming is not obvious, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the near - month contracts remain weak. It is recommended to continue holding the 9 - 11 reverse spread [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Price and Basis - On August 18, 2025, the national average live pig price was 13.4 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. Among different regions, prices in various provinces showed different changes, such as 13.68 yuan/kg in Henan, down 0.13 yuan/kg; 14.93 yuan/kg in Guangdong, down 0.7 yuan/kg [2]. - The basis between different regions and LH2509 also varied, with the basis in Henan being 40, up 55; in Guangdong being 690, down 185 [2]. Futures Contract Price - LH2509 was priced at 13,640 yuan, down 185; LH2511 was 13,820 yuan, down 125; LH2601 was 14,160 yuan, down 65. The spread between LH09 - 11 was - 180, down 60; the spread between LH11 - 01 was - 340, down 60 [2]. Pig Slaughter and Weight - According to Yongyi data, pig slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The average weight of slaughtered pigs this week was 127.82 kg, up 0.02 kg from last week (a month - on - month increase of 0.02%) and 1.65 kg more than the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.31%) [2]. Piglet Market - This week, the average selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 484 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from last week. As the piglets purchased now cannot be sold before the Spring Festival, farmers' enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has decreased, and the piglet price has started to decline, showing a weak trend in the short term [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the prices of glass and soda ash declined [2] - Recently, market sentiment has been volatile. Macro - policies are mostly positive, and the anti - involution logic is long - term, with strong expectations. However, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and the industry is still facing oversupply. So, the upward price space is limited. Especially with the approaching delivery of the 09 contract and the shift of the main contract, prices are weaker in the near term and stronger in the long term [2] - Glass supply is stable, but demand is weak. After the price decline, speculative demand disappeared, and inventory accumulated. Recently, there are strong expectations of supply disturbances for soda ash, but fundamentally, soda ash supply has returned to a high level. Due to the production cut of photovoltaic glass, direct demand has weakened, and the overall oversupply pressure is prominent, so prices are also difficult to rise. Industrial customers can focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash Futures Data (August 19, 2025) - **Soda Ash Futures Contracts** - Closing prices for January, May, and September contracts are 1212, 1308, and 1030 respectively; for fine soda ash, they are 1386, 1442, and 1272. The price changes are 1, - 1, - 16 for soda ash and - 9, - 8, - 21 for fine soda ash. The change rates are 0.08%, - 0.08%, - 1.53% for soda ash and - 0.65%, - 0.55%, - 1.62% for fine soda ash [1] - For spreads, the closing spreads of 5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1 for soda ash are - 96, 278, - 182; for fine soda ash, they are - 56, 170, - 114. The spread changes are 15, - 17, - 1 for soda ash and 13, - 12 for fine soda ash [1] - **Spot Prices** - Spot prices for soda ash in different regions are 1190, 1150, 1230, 1050; for fine soda ash in different regions are 1350, 1250. The basis for the main contracts are - 62, - 22, 18, - 336, - 36, - 136 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends going long on oils and fats as the bullish drivers are temporarily difficult to disprove [2] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price, inventory, production, and export data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and points out that due to the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the supply of rapeseed may be tight; the production and export situation of palm oil in Malaysia is complex; and the production of US soybeans has both high - yield expectations and area reduction [1][2] Summary by Related Content Price Data - **Palm Oil**: On August 15, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9710, 9640, and 9300 respectively, while on August 18, they were 9440, 9370, and 9570, with a one - price change of 270 [1] - **Soybean Oil**: On August 15, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8660, 8780, and 8760 respectively, and on August 18, they were 8710, 8830, and 8810, with a one - price change of 50 [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: On August 15, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9900, 10080, and 10160 respectively, and on August 18, they were 10030, 9950, and 10290, with a one - price change of 130 [1] Futures Data - The spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts changed from - 926 to - 1068, a decrease of 142; the spread between rapeseed and soybean main contracts changed from 1310 to 1223, a decrease of 87; palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 1420, and soybean oil warehouse receipts increased from 14840 to 15310, an increase of 470 [1] Supply and Demand Information - **Rapeseed**: The Ministry of Commerce preliminarily ruled that there was dumping of imported Canadian rapeseed. From August 14, 2025, importers need to pay a 75.8% deposit. The procurement of domestic distant - month rapeseed is slow, and the supply may be tight. The estimated arrival volume in August is about 200,000 tons, and the average monthly arrival volume from September to October is about 130,000 tons [2] - **Palm Oil**: Bloomberg's July MPOB estimate shows that production increased 8.3% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports increased 3.2% to 1.3 million tons, local consumption was 250,000 - 450,000 tons, and inventory increased 10% to 2.23 million tons. In Malaysia, from August 1 - 5, production decreased 17.27% month - on - month; from August 1 - 10, exports increased 23.3% (ITS) and 23.7% (AmSpec) compared to the same period last month [2] - **Soybean**: The USDA report increased the yield per acre of US soybeans to 53.6 bushels/acre but decreased the planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a production decrease of 43 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The weather in the next two weeks is favorable for yield, and as of August 10, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68% [2]