Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is affected by the weak and volatile crude oil market, and its price has declined. The supply side of PTA has shrunk, and its processing fee has continued to be low. The industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. With the end of the peak season, the market is worried about the impact of the trade war on textile and clothing demand, and the PTA operating rate may further decline. It is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remains low, and the arrival volume at ports within the week is still limited. Overseas imports of ethylene glycol are expected to decline, while domestic device commissioning has put continuous pressure on the price of ethylene glycol. As the polyester peak season is coming to an end and the crude oil fundamentals are weak, polyester is expected to operate weakly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price dropped from 443.8 yuan/barrel on October 16, 2025, to 432.6 yuan/barrel on October 17, 2025, a decrease of 11.20 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased by 27.39 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0186. CFR China PX decreased by 3, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 9. The PTA main futures price dropped by 54.0 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price dropped by 15.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 7.8 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 36.8 yuan/ton. The MEG main futures price dropped by 86.0 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha decreased by 8.2 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased by 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain and Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 84.62%. The PTA operating rate decreased by 0.63% to 77.58%, the MEG operating rate decreased by 0.66% to 65.84%, and the polyester load remained unchanged at 89.38% [2]. Polyester Filament - The prices of POY150D/48F and FDY150D/96F decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton and 45.0 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of DTY150D/48F increased by 20.0 yuan/ton. The POY cash flow remained unchanged at 126, the FDY cash flow increased by 30.0 to (199), and the DTY cash flow decreased by 35.0 to 191. The long - filament sales rate decreased by 25% to 67% [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 15 yuan/ton, the cash flow remained unchanged at 381, and the short - fiber sales rate decreased by 3% to 84% [2]. Polyester Chip - The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton, the chip cash flow remained unchanged at 46, and the chip sales rate decreased by 137% to 188% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPG market shows a divergence between weak propane and strong butane, with the valuation of domestic PG rising. Although the CP price dropped significantly at the beginning of the month, the continuous increase in upstream crude oil production and the oversupply in the market led to a weak performance of chemical products. However, the PG valuation has been repaired this week. Overall, there are few short - term positive factors for PG, and its price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts on the disk, as well as macro and geopolitical risks [4][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Product Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various energy and chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical products. For example, the current price of LPG is 4,220 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.12%, a weekly increase of 3.69%, a monthly decline of 0.59%, and an annual decline of 9.48% [3] 3.2 LPG Market Analysis - **Supply**: It is bearish. Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 550,100 tons (a 1.27% increase). The commercial volume of domestic gas was 221,700 tons (a 1.79% increase), industrial gas was 211,700 tons (a 0.14% decrease), and ether - after C4 was 180,400 tons (a 0.73% increase). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 560,000 tons (no change). Some manufacturers in South China and North China increased the commercial volume [4] - **Demand**: It is neutral. In October, the combustion demand for LPG is in the off - season. In the deep - processing of C4, the demand for n - butane is insufficient, and the device profit loss intensifies. In the deep - processing of C3, the demand for alkanes is weak, and the operating rate has decreased [4] - **Inventory**: It is bullish. Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 184,100 tons (a 3.56% decrease), and the port inventory was 3.1804 million tons (a 3.01% decrease). The domestic LPG market storage capacity utilization rate decreased this week, with a slight increase in inventory in Shandong and Central China, and a relatively smooth inventory reduction in East and South China [4] - **Basis and Position**: It is neutral. The weekly average basis in East China is 200.40 yuan/ton, in South China is 345.00 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 173.00 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts is 2,300 lots, a decrease of 12,227 lots [4] - **Chemical Downstream**: It is bearish. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are 68.76%, 54.89%, and 45.27% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are - 433 yuan/ton, - 187 yuan/ton, and - 86 yuan/ton respectively [4] - **Valuation**: It is bullish. The PG - SC ratio is 1.33 (a 10.71% increase), and the PG main - secondary monthly spread is 137 yuan/ton (a 75.64% increase) [4] 3.3 Market Trend Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated upwards, with a fluctuation range of 4,040 - 4,270 yuan/ton. Affected by the bearish pressure of crude oil, the international LPG market also dropped significantly. After the National Day holiday, the disk gap - opened lower and then oscillated at a low level. Due to the increase in domestic supply and weak fundamentals, both spot and futures prices declined, but the futures rebounded in the second half of the week, and the basis weakened [7] 3.4 LPG Futures Price and Spread Overview - The report provides the current values, week - on - week and month - on - month changes, and scores of LPG futures prices, monthly spreads, and cross - month spreads. For example, the current value of PG01 is 3,935 yuan, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.98% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.04% [11] 3.5 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - The report lists the maintenance plans of Chinese main refineries, local refineries, LPG factories, and PDH devices, including the refinery name, location, processing capacity, maintenance device, maintenance capacity, start time, and end time [13][14] 3.6 Price and Spread Charts - The report includes various price and spread charts, such as CP propane and butane prices, FEI propane and butane prices, MB propane and butane prices, propane - butane spreads, and ratios between propane/butane and WTI/Brent [15][23][27] 3.7 Inventory and Production Data - The report presents data on LPG imports, exports, port inventories, refinery inventories, production, and self - use, as well as charts showing the trends of these data [146][152][168] 3.8 Deep - Processing Profit Data - The report provides data on the deep - processing profits of alkanes and olefins, including PDH to propylene/PP/PP powder profits, MTBE profits, and alkylation oil profits, as well as the operating rates of relevant devices [191][204][210] 3.9 Research Center Introduction - The Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures has a team of 6 members with professional backgrounds in finance, statistics, and chemical engineering. The team members have rich experience in industry fundamentals and spot - futures research in the energy and chemical sector, and have won many awards [217]

| | | | | | | | Hart Article Fix | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/20 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 | | | 1000 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on butadiene rubber is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests a unilateral "oscillatory upward" trend and an arbitrage strategy of "long BR, short NR/RU" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of butadiene provide some support, and the profit has improved. The valuation of cis - butadiene rubber has recently been repaired. However, attention should still be paid to the impact of changes in production start - up and inventory clearance progress on the spot trading rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec's high - cis butadiene rubber price was cumulatively reduced by 300 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's main sales companies reduced the price by 500 yuan/ton. The cost situation of cis - butadiene rubber has slightly improved. Due to device maintenance, Sinopec's short - and medium - term circulation resources are expected to decrease. Affected by macro news and downstream price - pressing purchases, the spot negotiation price has declined. At the end of the cycle, the price of the cis - butadiene rubber futures and spot markets rebounded rapidly [7]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was 102,200 tons (-2.36%), with a capacity utilization rate of 65.79%; high - cis butadiene rubber production was 30,000 tons (0.18%), with a capacity utilization rate of 74.82%. Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants were in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or restart, affecting production volume [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but there are differences in shipment performance [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.99%; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. There is concern about the inventory increase due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels and sufficient expected imports in October [3]. 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - The BR cross - variety spread and month - to - month spread, as well as the seasonality analysis of RU - BR, NR - BR, and BR - SC, are presented in the report. The RU - BR spread was 3,770 yuan/ton (-7.94%), the NR - BR spread was 1,300 yuan/ton (15.04%), and the BR - SC ratio was 0.52% [3][12]. 3.5 Cost and Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 124 yuan/ton, and by C4 extraction was 1,816.55 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 158 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 1.39% [3]. 3.6 Device Operation Analysis - Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants are in different states of operation, maintenance, or shutdown. For example, many butadiene plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi and Sierbang are in a shutdown state, and some butadiene rubber plants like Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical are under maintenance [3][11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - High demand stimulates downstream to increase lithium carbonate purchases, driving social inventory reduction. The increase in lithium carbonate production may suppress futures prices. In the short - term, supply - demand mismatch pushes up prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,350 with a rise of 350; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,100 with a rise of 350 [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 846 with a rise of 17; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 1100 with a rise of 50; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 1825 with a rise of 70; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) average price is 6400 with a rise of 265; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) average price is 7550 with a rise of 300 [1][2] Futures Contracts - Carbonate lithium 2510 closing price is 75,300 with a 2.23% increase; carbonate lithium 2511 closing price is 75,700 with a 2.55% increase; carbonate lithium 2512 closing price is 75,860 with a 2.4% increase; carbonate lithium 2601 closing price is 75,780 with a 2.32% increase; carbonate lithium 2602 closing price is 75,540 with a 2.39% increase [1] Price Differences - Electric - industrial grade lithium carbonate price difference is 2250; electric carbon - main contract price difference is - 2350 with a change of - 410; near - month - first continuous contract price difference is - 160 with a change of 40; near - month - second continuous contract price difference is - 80 with a change of 60 [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 132,658 with a decrease of 2143; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 34,283 with a decrease of 464; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 57,735 with a decrease of 2030; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,640 with an increase of 350; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 30,686 with an increase of 230 [2] Profit Estimation - Cash cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 74,442, and the profit is - 2159; cash cost of purchased lithium mica concentrate is 77,485, and the profit is - 7190 [3] Technological Breakthrough - Chinese researchers solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. The research team developed an anion regulation technology, and the results were published in the journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" [3]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Current paper product demand remains stable, with no obvious rebound in paper prices. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [12] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The inventory showed a narrow - range de - stocking trend [12] - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26 - year Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle and high - quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On October 17, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5152, 4856, and 5214 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 0.35%, - 0.91%, and - 0.50%, and week - on - week changes of 0.94%, 1.42%, and 1.32% [6] - The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5500, 5000, and 4250 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 0%, 0%, and 0%, and week - on - week changes of - 0.36%, - 0.99%, and 0% [6] Outer - market Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - market quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Japanese (unclear name), and Chilean Venus were 700, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 2.78%, 3.92%, and 0% [6] - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 2.75%, 3.87%, and 0% [6] Supply - side Data - In August 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 61.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 125.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.88% [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [6] - On October 16, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp was 23.2 tons, and the domestic production of chemi - mechanical pulp was 23.4 tons [6] Inventory Data - On October 16, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 207.4 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.7 tons [6] Demand - side Data - In October 2025, the production of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard was 20.3, 7.9, 28.08, and 34.5 tons respectively [6] Valuation Data - On October 17, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 144, and the Silver Star basis was 644, with quantile levels of 0.866 and 0.878 respectively [6] - The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221, and the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with quantile levels of 0.285 and 0.555 respectively [6]

Group 1: Market Data and Performance - DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a 0.56bp increase, DR007 at 1.41 with a 1.40bp decrease, GC001 at 1.22 with a 15.00bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.46 with a 2.00bp decrease [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.10bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.02bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.59 with a 0.82bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.82 with a 1.85bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a 3.00bp increase [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 6331 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase operations, with 10210 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, 8000 billion yuan of 91 - day term repurchases, and 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6979 billion yuan [4] - This week, 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2538 billion, 910 billion, 435 billion, 2360 billion, and 1648 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [5] - The CSI 300 closed at 4514 with a 2.26% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2968 with a 1.70% decrease, the CSI 500 at 7016 with a 2.98% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 7185 with a 2.92% decrease [5] - IF当月 closed at 4540 with a 1.6% decrease, IH当月 at 2983 with a 1.2% decrease, IC当月 at 7064 with a 2.2% decrease, and IM当月 at 7230 with a 2.3% decrease [5] - IF trading volume was 169431 with a 10.4% increase, IF open interest was 265794 with a 3.3% decrease, IH trading volume was 89212 with a 16.9% increase, IH open interest was 97922 with a 5.7% decrease, IC trading volume was 172400 with a 8.7% increase, IC open interest was 246587 with a 2.6% decrease, and IM trading volume was 290913 with a 16.5% increase, IM open interest was 364222 with a 2.5% increase [5] - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 2.22% to 4514.2, the SSE 50 fell 0.24% to 2967.8, the CSI 500 fell 5.17% to 7016.1, and the CSI 1000 fell 4.62% to 7185.5 [5] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, only banking (4.9%), food and beverage (0.9%), and transportation (0.4%) rose last week, while electronics (-7.1%), media (-6.3%), automobiles (-6%), communication (-5.9%), and machinery and equipment (-5.8%) led the decline [5] - Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 21038 billion, 23147 billion, 18835 billion, 17526 billion, and 17598 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 1132.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5] Group 2: Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade policies, market risk appetite may fluctuate [6] - As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel [6] - Key time points to watch include the APEC ministerial meeting from October 29 - 30 and the APEC leaders' summit from October 31 - November 1, so the stock index market may be clearer by the end of the month [6] - Before that, the strategy should focus on risk avoidance, the CSI 300 and SSE 50 may be more resilient, and long - position investors in stock index futures can consider using options for risk hedging [6] Group 3: Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount for the next - month contract is 4.52%, the current - quarter contract is 3.85%, and the next - quarter contract is 2.73% [7] - IH premium/discount for the next - month contract is 1.33%, the current - quarter contract is 0.96%, and the next - quarter contract is 0.34% [7] - IC premium/discount for the next - month contract is 14.77%, the current - quarter contract is 13.04%, and the next - quarter contract is 10.75% [7] - IM premium/discount for the next - month contract is 13.16%, the current - quarter contract is 13.71%, and the next - quarter contract is 12.72% [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The LPG market is oscillating weakly, and its low valuation is expected to be restored [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content International Market - The previous working day's CP converted RMB propane was around 3,512.916 yuan/ton, and butane was around 3,370.98 yuan/ton. Due to tight butane supply and demand, the price difference between CP propane and butane has disappeared, so the butane price trend is stronger than that of propane [4]. - Affected by tariff policies, the international market prices fluctuated widely, and the average price ended up falling. The market's concern has risen again, and Chinese importers generally turned to purchasing US resources, causing the discount of non-US resources to China to remain high. As the external market prices fell to relatively low levels, it attracted buyers. Coupled with the strong demand from Sinopec in China, it promoted the recovery of market buying interest and the prices stabilized and rebounded [4]. East China Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4,570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. This week, the East China civil gas market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a general overall atmosphere. In the later part of the week, due to the increase in Shandong's supply and the impact of warehouse receipts, the prices continued to decline, and the negative effects were transmitted southward. Jiangsu's shipments became sluggish, and the prices fell again [4]. - In terms of imported gas, there were limited vessel arrivals at the docks this week, and importers were clearly willing to support the market. The prices were high in the early stage, but as the Shandong prices fell, it affected the shipments at Jiangsu docks. With the decline of domestic gas prices widening the price difference, the imported gas prices showed signs of loosening in the later part of the week. By Thursday, the imported propane price was around 4,650 yuan/ton, and the imported proportional gas price in Zhejiang was between 4,500 - 4,550 yuan/ton [4]. South China Region - The average price of the civil gas market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4,570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a decline of -0.44%. This week, the price center of the South China civil gas market continued to decline. The price of etherified C4 increased at low prices and fell at high prices, and the final average price decreased slightly [4]. - Affected by the decline of both international oil prices and the LPG external market, the market's bearish sentiment increased, and the overall price center moved down. Although the arrival discount remained high and importers were strongly willing to support the prices, the downstream demand continued to be weak. In terms of industrial gas, due to the improvement in demand in the Zhanjiang area, the inventory pressure was relieved, and the prices rebounded at low prices. In the Guangxi area, there was an expectation of subsequent supply increase, and the prices declined from high levels. The prices in the Guangzhou area also decreased. After each unit adjusted the prices according to its own situation, the regional price difference narrowed, and currently, production and sales were basically balanced [4]. Shandong Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4,450 yuan/ton; in terms of etherified C4, the market average price decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 4,370 yuan/ton, a decline of -0.64% [4]. - This week, the Shandong civil gas market first remained stable and then declined, and the price center clearly moved down. At the beginning of the week, although the warehouse receipt resources were gradually flowing out, compared with the refinery resources, the prices were not significantly impacted, and it relied on the strong support of downstream chemical demand, showing a stable trend. However, as the unexpected increase in the refinery's external supply in the province affected the market, the supply of civil gas resources in the market gradually increased, while the downstream demand did not improve further. The situation of oversupply in the market became more prominent. In the middle and later stages, the market was under pressure and the prices decreased. The low level of the international LPG market increased the market's wait-and-see sentiment. At the end of the week, the market was competing to sell goods, and the trading atmosphere improved limitedly under the sentiment of buying on rising and not on falling. The prices fell to a new low for the year [4]. Futures Market - The closing price of the domestic futures market's main contract increased by 120 yuan/ton to 4,268 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a rise of 2.89%. The settlement price increased by 58 yuan/ton to 4,199 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.40%. The open interest increased by 2,324 lots to 170,702 lots, a rise of 1.38% [4]. - The price differences between different contract months and varieties also showed different degrees of changes, such as the PG2511 - PG2512 price difference increased by 1 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.78%; the PG2511 - PG2601 price difference increased by 24 yuan/ton to 237 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.27% [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view can be extracted from the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Historical Volatility - For furnace aluminum, the main price is 20975, and the price of PVC increases by 0.48%. The historical volatilities HV20, HV40, HV60, and HV120 are 10.75%, 10%, 8%, and 18.26% respectively [5]. - For Shanghai zinc, the main price is 21940, and the price of plastic decreases by 0.25%. The historical volatilities are 14.99%, 0.30%, 16.54%, and 12% respectively [5]. - For other commodities such as copper, methanol, gold, etc., similar historical volatility and price change data are provided [5]. Implied Volatility - For polycrystalline silicon, the main flat - value IV is 39% and 69% [9]. - For propylene, the main flat - value IV is 17% and 5% [9]. - Similar implied volatility data are given for other commodities like urea, short - fiber, etc. [9]. Main Flat - Value IV Quantile No detailed data summary is provided in the given content for this part. Historical Trends - For industrial silicon and iron ore, historical trends of main closing price, main flat - value implied volatility, and HV60 are presented from 2024 - 10 to 2025 - 08 [12]. - Similar historical trend data are also shown for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, crude oil, and rubber [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - Due to high macro - policy uncertainty, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market - Domestic PVC powder market prices had a narrow - range adjustment today, with mainstream markets seeing small increases and decreases, and price fluctuations mostly within 0 - 10 yuan/ton. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and overall spot trading was light. The prices of 5 - type calcium carbide materials were as follows: in East China, the mainstream spot cash self - pick - up price was 4560 - 4670 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 4620 - 4690 yuan/ton; in Hebei, the spot cash delivered price was 4440 - 4550 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it was 4570 - 4610 yuan/ton [1] 2. Futures Market - The futures market was weak in last night's session and showed a slightly stronger oscillation today. Traders' early fixed - price quotes changed little, and some basis quotes strengthened slightly, but high - price transactions were difficult [1] 3. Price Changes - Coal ash (Q5500) increased from 728 to 736, with a change of 18; Fengli Jixue futures increased from 4677 to 4694, with a change of 17; FAS Houston increased from 551 to 571, with a change of 20 [1] 4. Basis - The basis in East China decreased from - 97 to - 114, a change of - 17; in South China, it decreased from - 17 to - 34, a change of - 17; in another area, it decreased from - 117 to - 134, a change of - 17 [1] 5. Profit - The profit of Shandong calcium carbide method remained at - 1240, and that of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method remained at - 969 [1] 6. External Market - CFR China remained at 706, and CFR Southeast Asia remained at 649 [1] 7. Operating Rates - The operating rate of calcium carbide method increased from 82.13% to 82.94%, a change of 0.81%; the operating rate of ethylene method increased from 79.75% to 81.9%, a change of 2.15%; the total operating rate increased from 81.42% to 82.63%, a change of 1.21% [1] 8. Inventory - East China's inventory increased from 48.84 to 50.27, a change of 1.43; South China's inventory increased from 4.93 to 5.43, a change of 0.5; social inventory increased from 53.77 to 55.7, a change of 1.93 [1]