Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are oscillating with improved trading volume. The policy may enter a vacuum period, and the impact of the Tangshan production - restriction policy is expected to be limited. Focus on the possible mismatch in the low - inventory environment. Steel prices are currently stable, with support from the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost and upward elasticity depending on market sentiment and demand strength [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, macro policies are mainly positive, and prices are on the strong side. Although the anti - involution policy expectation is uncertain, previous trading logic continues to support prices. The supply is slightly increasing, and inventory is being depleted, but the high inventory still poses a challenge [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the impact of over - production inspection is ongoing, and the market is still betting on "anti - involution". The sixth round of coke price increase is yet to be confirmed. The coking coal supply is tightened, but the price faces upward pressure. The market is volatile, and light - position participation is recommended, with key time points to watch [6]. - For iron ore, the anti - involution sentiment is rising again. The direction of the black sector depends on coking coal. Iron ore supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" policy may have a trend - setting impact. The lower support for iron ore is still effective, and there may be an upward opportunity after adjustment [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts (August 11)**: RB2601 closed at 3319 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan (1.10%); HC2601 at 3461 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan (1.20%); I2601 at 789 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (1.94%); J2601 at 1759.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.73%); JM2605 at 1285 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (2.39%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (August 11)**: RB2510 closed at 3250 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (1.09%); HC2510 at 3465 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan (1.29%); I2509 at 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.82%); J2509 at 1681 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan (1.97%); JM2601 at 1256 yuan/ton, up 36.5 yuan (2.99%) [1]. - **Spread and Basis**: On August 11, RB2510 - 2601 spread was - 69 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 spread was 4 yuan, up 5 yuan. The basis for HC, RB, I, J, and JM had different values and changes [1]. Steel Industry - **Price and Trading Volume**: On Monday, futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices followed suit. The trading volume of building materials trade increased to over 120,000 tons, and speculative demand improved [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Domestic policies may enter a vacuum period. The Tangshan production - restriction policy is mild, and its overall impact on production is expected to be limited [3]. - **Industry Reality**: Last week, hot - rolled coil supply and demand were both weak, while building materials showed strong supply and demand. Steel exports are still at a high level, but the marginal weakening is observed [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Unilaterally, focus on the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost support; for arbitrage, do long on the 01 hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; there are partial profit - taking opportunities for basis, and conduct rolling operations in the spot - futures market [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Situation**: Macro policies are positive, and demand - side factors support prices. The anti - involution policy has an impact on supply and cost. The supply is slightly increasing, and inventory is being depleted, but high inventory remains a problem [4]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The sixth - round coke price increase is yet to be confirmed. Coking coal supply is tightened due to production inspection and natural factors. The market is betting on "anti - involution", but the price faces upward pressure as downstream acceptance of high - priced resources decreases [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The black sector is oscillating, and the direction depends on coking coal. Iron ore supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" policy may have a significant impact. The lower support for iron ore is effective, and there may be an upward opportunity after adjustment [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Consider doing long on the 9 - 1 spread as it has shrunk to a historically low level [6].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 市 市 fat 官 方 网 站 品 有 服 热线 1.40 150. 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn tin No 入 IUI ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/8/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 (美元/盎司) | 伦敦银现 (美元/盎司) | COMEX黄金 (美元/登司) | COMEX日银 (美元/盎司) | AU2510 (元/克) | AG2510 (元/千克) | AU (T+D) (元/克) | AG (T+D) (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/8/11 | 3365. 31 | 38. 05 | 3425. 30 | 38. ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weak - oscillating state [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Categories Price Indicators - **Coal Prices**: The price of Jincheng anthracite remained at 900.00, and Inner Mongolia thermal coal stayed at 630.00 from August 8th to 11th, 2025 [1]. - **Liquefied Gas and Natural Gas Prices**: Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas dropped from 4330.00 to 4130.00, and international natural gas decreased from 11.07 to 10.86 during the same period [1]. - **Methanol Prices**: Most methanol prices remained stable, with only minor fluctuations in some regions. For example, the price in Shandong decreased from 2310.00 to 2300.00, and the price in Taicang dropped from 2375.00 to 2365.00 [1]. - **Associated Product Prices**: MTBE price decreased from 5130.00 to 5030.00, while the prices of other associated products such as acetic acid and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. Supply - **Domestic Production**: Domestic methanol production decreased from 264005.00 to 263205.00, and domestic methanol operating rate dropped from 81.73 to 81.48. International operating rate remained at 71.67 [1]. - **Imports**: The arrival volume remained at 29.54 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 324520.00 and 808400.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained at 230725.00 [1]. Operating Rates of Downstream Products - The operating rates of most downstream products such as MTO, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde remained unchanged [1].

Group 1: Paper Pulp Price Data - SP2601 futures price was 5472, with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly increase of 1.41% [1] - SP2605 futures price was 5452, with a daily decrease of 0.70% and a weekly decrease of 1.17% [1] - SP2509 futures price was 5202, with a daily increase of 0.77% and a weekly increase of 0.66% [1] - Spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, with no daily or weekly change [1] - Spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5250, with a daily and weekly increase of 1.35% [1] - Spot price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, with a daily increase of 1.72% and a weekly increase of 0.73% [1] - Chilean Silver Star's foreign - market quotation was 720, a monthly decrease of 2.70% [1] - Brazilian Goldfish's foreign - market quotation was 510, a monthly increase of 4.08% [1] - Chilean Venus's foreign - market quotation was 620, with no monthly change [1] Group 2: Paper Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a monthly decrease of 6.09% compared to May [1] - The shipment volume of paper pulp to China in May 2025 was 140 tons, a monthly increase of 3.30% compared to April [1] - The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp had certain fluctuations [1] Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for paper pulp [2] Inventory - As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper - pulp ports in China was 204.8 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period, with a monthly decrease of 2.7% [2] Group 3: Paper Pulp Valuation Data - On August 11, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 48, with a quantile level of 0.796; the Silver Star basis was 648, with a quantile level of 0.89 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.546; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 32, with a quantile level of 0.61 [1] Group 4: Market News Supply - side - Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase for the Asian market in August 2025, and its commodity paper - pulp output in the next 12 - month operating cycle will be about 3.5% lower than its annual nominal capacity [1] - Asia Symbol announced a 150 - yuan/ton increase in the order - receiving price of broad - leaf pulp, only supplying long - term contract customers [1] Strategy - Paper - pulp futures are expected to run strongly [2]

国内白糖工业库存 巴西糖配额外进口利润 投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/8/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团白 | | 地区 | 2025/8/11 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | / 报 糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 6010 | 0 | 0 | 332 | 2 | | 吨价现 | | 昆明 | 5825 | 0 | -100 | 247 | 2 | | いで賞 | 云南 | 大理 | 5700 | 0 | -140 | 162 | 2 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 6090 | 0 | 100 | 312 | 2 | | 数 盘 | | SR09 | 5678 | -2 | | | | | 据 面 | | | | | SR09-01 | 105 | -2 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the natural rubber industry is bearish. The industry may maintain a volatile performance in the short - term due to factors such as improving weather in production areas leading to increased supply, slightly decreasing mid - stream inventory, and narrow - fluctuating downstream operating rates, along with changeable sentiment in the commodity market [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market currently lacks a clear driving force and is in a weak and volatile state. The supply in production areas is gradually increasing as the weather improves, the mid - stream inventory has a slight decline, and the downstream tire production capacity utilization rate fluctuates within a narrow range. The overall commodity market sentiment is changeable, and there is no obvious trading logic in the short - term [3][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply situation varies in different regions. In China, Yunnan's supply decreased slightly due to rainfall, while Hainan's supply increased but was still below the seasonal average. In Thailand, the supply increased significantly, putting pressure on raw material prices. In Vietnam, the supply increased steadily seasonally, and the glue price was firm. Overall, the supply factor is bearish [3]. - **Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the next period. The demand factor is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.4% to 128.9 million tons. The inventory factor is neutral [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR main contract spread both widened this week. The basis factor is neutral [3]. - **Profit**: The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 decreased, the theoretical production profit of Hainan domestic state - owned concentrated latex increased, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex improved. The profit factor is neutral [3]. - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is still relatively high. The valuation factor is bearish [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: There are disturbances from the state reserve dumping policy and domestic macro - policy sentiment. The macro and policy factor is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: Due to the improving weather in production areas, the upstream supply is gradually increasing. The mid - stream inventory has a slight decline, and the downstream operating rate fluctuates within a narrow range. The commodity market sentiment is changeable, and there is no obvious logic. It may maintain a volatile performance in the short - term [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, the long - RU2601 short - RU2509 arbitrage should gradually take profit around 1000 [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: This week, natural rubber futures fluctuated weakly. As of August 8, the RU main contract closed at 14,575 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan/ton (+2.85%) for the week, and the 20 - day rubber main contract closed at 12,465 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton (+2.00%) for the week [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded. The RU2509 contract accelerated the position transfer, and the total position of RU + NR continued to decline. The RU - NR spread rebounded, and there may be reverse arbitrage opportunities [9][17][24][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: The precipitation in production areas has decreased, which is conducive to the increase in rubber supply [40]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In June, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 4.739 million tons (+2.95%) [63]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In June, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 4.652 million tons (+8.04%) [73]. - **China's Imports**: From January to June, China imported 3.1257 million tons of natural rubber (+26.47%). In July 2025, China imported a total of 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 4.709 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.8% [86][93]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Qingdao also decreased [102][109]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly in the next period [110][111]. - **Downstream Tire Inventory**: The inventory of semi - steel tires in Shandong is at a high level [120]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In June, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year. In July 2025, the sales volume of heavy trucks was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% [128][138]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to June, China exported 4.71 million tons of tires (+4.5%). In June, the export volume and amount of rubber tires decreased year - on - year [139][146]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and Thai latex rebounded [148].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent decline in bond futures provides a good opportunity to enter the market. The current stabilization of the bond market is supported by three factors: the central bank's determination to maintain stability through large - scale open - market operations and month - end bond purchases; the stabilization of the capital market and the weakening of the capital rotation effect between the stock and bond markets; and the attractiveness of bond yields for institutional funds after previous adjustments [8]. - In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the new normal of the declining marginal benefits of land finance and debt - driven economic growth, and potential trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are favorable for bond futures, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue under the support of a loose - money cycle [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views - **Weekly Market Review**: The market moved sideways this week. The bond market was less correlated with the stock and commodity markets. There were rumors of large banks buying 7 - and 10 - year bonds, and expectations of the central bank restarting bond purchases were strong. The central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of 3 - month term repurchase operations on Thursday. The market expects another 6 - month term repurchase operation this month, and the total operation amount in August is likely to exceed the 900 billion yuan of maturing amounts. The 3M term repurchase rate was rumored to have been cut by 5bp. Liquidity was abundant, with overnight funding rates falling below 1.3%, and short - term bond varieties benefited more than long - term ones [4]. - **Market Data**: The report provides the closing prices, weekly price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various bond futures contracts such as TL2509, TL2512, etc. For example, TL2509 closed at 119.320 with a weekly increase of 0.24%, and its trading volume was 48,964,100 with a decrease of 18,078,900 [5]. Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (quantity and price), various interest rates (such as reverse - repurchase rates, inter - bank lending rates, etc.), deposit reserve ratios, and bond yields (both domestic and US bonds). These charts show the historical trends of these indicators over different time periods [10][15][18]. Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - **Basis**: The report shows the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, including the basis of the current quarter contracts [41][43]. - **Net Basis**: It presents the net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current quarter contracts [50][55]. - **IRR**: The internal rate of return (IRR) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current quarter contracts is provided [58][61]. - **Implied Interest Rate**: The implied interest rates of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current quarter contracts are shown [64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon (SI): Oscillating [8][9] - Polysilicon (PS): Oscillating [10] - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Bullish [87] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is expanding due to continuous resumption of production in factories in the northwest and southwest regions, while downstream polysilicon and silicone production has increased. The resumption of supply will impact the supply - demand balance, and the futures price is expected to be weak in the short term [9]. - For polysilicon, the national weekly production has increased, downstream silicon wafer production is on the rise, but market sentiment has cooled. The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. - Regarding lithium carbonate, the mine - end production halt has been confirmed, and if there is rectification and resumption after compliance, considering the large downstream inventory and supplementary supply from surrounding mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. Market sentiment may trigger downstream stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The current values, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals such as the US Dollar Index, exchange rate, Shanghai and London copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented. For example, the US Dollar Index is 98.267, with a daily increase of 0.18%, a weekly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 9.42%. Industrial silicon is priced at 8710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.64%, a weekly increase of 2.47%, and an annual decrease of 20.71% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 8.35 tons, a 6.16% increase from the previous week, and the number of open furnaces is 270, an increase of 8 from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Sichuan has all increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream polysilicon and silicone weekly production has increased. Polysilicon weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week, and silicone DMC weekly production is 5.12 tons, a 7.11% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.16 tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week; the industry inventory is 43.99 tons, a 0.92% decrease from the previous week; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.17 tons, a 0.52% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9100 yuan, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 120 yuan, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. In major production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 567, 86, and 187 yuan respectively, with changes of - 25, + 52, and + 37 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the expansion of supply and hedging pressure [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Production**: The national weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is 1.09, 0.45, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with a 1.02% increase in Inner Mongolia and no change in the other three regions [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.58GW, a 6.24% increase from the previous week, and the factory inventory is 17.78GW, a 1.93% decrease from the previous week [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 27.34 tons, a 0.87% decrease from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 10860 tons, a 13.13% increase from the previous week [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41323 yuan, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 3878 yuan, an increase of 461 yuan from the previous week [10]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national high - yield is 1.96 tons, a 13.25% increase from the previous week. Lithium extraction from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes has all increased, with weekly productions of 11182, 4410, and 2442 tons respectively, and increases of 5.25%, 35.07%, and 20.18% from the previous week [87]. - **Import**: In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.7 tons, a 16.31% decrease from the previous month and a 9.63% decrease from the previous year. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 42.76 tons, a 17.25% decrease from the previous month and an 18.15% decrease from the previous year [87]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of iron - phosphate - based materials decreased by 10.87% to 6.17 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.99% to 9.46 tons. The weekly production of ternary - based materials increased by 8.66% to 1.75 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.36% to 1.66 tons. In June, the production of new energy vehicles was 226.77 million vehicles, a 0.14% decrease from the previous month, and the sales volume was 132.92 million vehicles, a 1.68% increase from the previous month [87]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.24 tons, a 0.49% increase from the previous week. The lithium - salt factory inventory decreased by 1.85% to 5.10 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1.84% to 9.14 tons. The warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 239.57% to 1.88 tons [87]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased lepidolite is 75753 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 7557 yuan/ton, a 422 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased spodumene is 68214 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is 1863 yuan/ton, a 212 - yuan decrease from the previous week [87]. - **Investment View**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term due to the mine - end production halt and potential downstream stocking [87].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-8-11 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 油脂：等待两份报告带来新指引 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 棕榈油观望； 豆油偏多； 菜油中性 | （1）马来棕榈油7月高频数据显现增产但8月强降雨对产地产量不利；（2）后续豆油供应下降预期；（3）菜籽低库存已充分计价。 | | | | 需求 | 棕榈油菜油 中性；豆油 偏多 | （1）印尼棕榈油出口大增、马来出口减弱；（2）美生柴存不确定性，印尼B50落地有难度，生柴支撑有所减弱；（3）未来旺季利好豆油消费。 | | | | 库存 | 菜油棕榈油 中性偏空； 豆油偏多 | （1）国内棕榈油逐渐累库；（2）豆油库存预计达阶段性高点，有去库预期；（3）国内菜油库存高位去化。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the urea industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitudes are expected to be between - 5% and 5% [4][84] 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is influenced by a mix of long and short factors. Macro - level factors, cost, and export prospects are positive, while domestic demand is negative. Therefore, the market is expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Urea production was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons (1.94% week - on - week). The weekly average daily production was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 3700 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 81.98%, a decrease of 1.62% week - on - week. Some provinces saw production and capacity utilization changes. Overall, the supply factor is neutral [4] - **Demand**: The urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Shandong Linyi was 930 tons, a decrease of 200 tons (17.70% week - on - week). The pre - received order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.53 days, an increase of 0.41 days (6.70% week - on - week). The demand factor is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The port sample inventory was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (2.03% week - on - week). The total enterprise inventory was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons (3.24% week - on - week). The inventory factor is neutral [4] - **Basis/Spread**: The UR spread had a narrow - range oscillation this week, and the factor is neutral [4] - **Profit**: The theoretical profit of urea sample enterprises had a narrow - range fluctuation. The theoretical profit of coal - fired fixed - bed process was - 167 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), that of the new coal - water slurry process was 282 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week), and that of the gas - fired process was - 185 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). The profit factor is bullish [4] - **Valuation**: The full cost of the fixed - bed process is about 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton, and that of the new coal gasification process is around 1400 - 1500 yuan/ton. The valuation factor is neutral [4] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an expectation of anti - involution policy, and the cost - side support is relatively strong. The macro and policy factor is bullish [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, also wait and see [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The domestic urea market first rose and then declined this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped to 1740 - 1780 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. After the export policy was announced, the market trading sentiment cooled down, and the short - term market may decline slightly again [6] 3.3 Urea Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Supply Data**: The report presents data on daily urea production, weekly production of large and small particles, production from coal and natural gas sources, and the capacity utilization rate over multiple years [28][30] - **Downstream Agricultural Demand**: Data on corn, wheat, and rice prices, as well as pre - received order days, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, and compound fertilizer prices are provided [45][48] - **Downstream Industrial Demand**: Information about the capacity utilization rate and production of formaldehyde, production of melamine, capacity utilization rate of melamine, national building materials and home furnishing index, and vehicle urea price is presented [54][58] - **Inventory and Export Situation**: Data on factory inventory, port inventory, Guangxi inventory, downstream enterprise inventory, compound fertilizer inventory, and export volume are shown [65][71] - **Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on fixed - bed cost, coal - water slurry cost, natural gas - fired cost, and their corresponding profits over multiple years [77]