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宏观金融数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 06:20
Report Summary 1. Market Data and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.03 bp change, DR007 at 1.42 with a -1.44 bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a 19.00 bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a 1.00 bp change [3]. - SHBOR 3M was at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.75 bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.58 with a 0.50 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.76 with a 0.60 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a - 0.50 bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 43.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% with a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities [3]. - This week, 1021 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 612 billion yuan and 409 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [4]. 2. Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.48% to 4606.3, SSE 50 rose 1.36% to 3001.3, CSI 500 rose 1.38% to 7294, and CSI 1000 rose 1.5% to 7483.4 [5]. - Industry sectors generally rose, with automotive, aviation, power grid equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while shipping and small - metal sectors declined [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0729 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 503.4 billion yuan or 17% from the previous day [5]. 3. Futures Contracts and Market Outlook - In the futures market, IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed price increases, but their trading volumes and open interests decreased to varying degrees [5]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies and the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC in South Korea at the end of this month [5]. - Small - and medium - cap stocks with high technology weights may face greater shocks, and risk - hedging tools such as CSI 1000 put options can be considered [5]. - The CSI 300 and SSE 50 indexes are expected to show stronger resilience, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue [5]. 4. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF's premium/discount rates for different contracts were 0.00%, 4.22%, 3.64%, and 2.61% respectively [5]. - IH's were 1.03%, 11.85%, 0.74%, and 0.23% [5]. - IC's were 13.23%, 39.54%, 11.84%, and 10.17% [5]. - IM's were 67.43%, 15.93%, 15.63%, and 13.23% [5].
国贸商品指数日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 05:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday (October 15), the domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with most industrial products falling and most agricultural products rising [1] - For the black series, the steel market lacks positive drivers, the post - holiday supply - demand pattern is weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The price increase pressure persists [1] - For basic metals, market risk preference has declined, but the cost side still supports the medium - term copper price, and short - term copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [1] - For energy and chemical products, international oil prices have hit new lows, and short - term oil prices may fluctuate and repair, but the price center may move down in the medium to long term [1] - For oils and fats and oilseeds, the domestic oils and fats market currently lacks positive support, but there is still upward momentum in the medium to long term. In the short term, grains may continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Commodity Futures Market Performance - Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) rising 4.25%; metals all rose, with silver rising 2.30%; oils and fats and oilseeds mostly rose, with soybeans rising 0.76%; agricultural and sideline products all rose, with corn rising 0.67% [1] - Energy products led the losses, with low - sulfur fuel oil falling 1.90%; non - metallic building materials all fell, with glass falling 1.74%; the black series mostly fell, with iron ore falling 1.46%; basic metals were mixed, with zinc falling 1.17%; chemicals mostly fell, with asphalt falling 1.10%; new energy materials mostly fell, with lithium carbonate falling 0.60% [1] 3.2 Black Series - The five major steel product inventories increased by 8.68% week - on - week to 1.60072 billion tons last week, with the increase much higher than 3.65% in the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 19.5%. The accumulated inventory needs time to digest, exports face new challenges, and steel supply is expected to remain high, resulting in prominent fundamental contradictions and continuous price increase pressure [1] 3.3 Basic Metals - In the copper market, the intensification of Sino - US game has boosted risk - aversion sentiment and weakened global economic growth expectations. The cost side still supports the medium - term copper price, and short - term copper prices are expected to continue high - level fluctuations [1] 3.4 Energy and Chemical Products - International oil prices hit new lows since early May, and short - term oil prices may fluctuate and repair, but the price center may move down in the medium to long term due to the uncertainty of the macro - level [1] 3.5 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - The domestic oils and fats market currently lacks positive support and is in a weak adjustment. The export data of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and there is still upward momentum in the medium to long term. The supply of South American soybeans is expected to be strong, and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are under pressure. In the short term, grains may continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3.6 Index Performance - The Guomao Commodity Composite Index rose 0.98% from October 14 to October 15 [1] - The Guomao Bulk Commodity Index rose 0.15% [1] - The Guomao Non - Metallic Mineral Products Index rose 0.13% [1] - The Guomao Agricultural and Sideline Products Index fell 0.66% [1] - The Guomao Petroleum and Oil Index rose 1.03% [1] - The Guomao Primary Chemicals Index rose 0.04% [1] - The Guomao Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Index rose 0.27% [1]
棉系数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 05:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Xinjiang region's new - cotton harvest expectation is fulfilled. The purchase price of seed cotton first declined and then increased during the festival, generally showing a stable - with - increase trend. Cotton farmers mainly sell at a reasonable price. The downstream textile industry's "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and yarn mills' procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The outer - market US cotton is running weakly, and short - term cotton may continue to be under pressure, but the downside space may be limited. Be cautious about chasing short positions in case of sharp drops [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalog Cotton Futures and Spot Price Changes - On October 15, compared with October 14, domestic cotton futures CF01 rose 5 points to 13270 with a 0.04% increase; CF05 rose 10 points to 13330 with a 0.08% increase; CF01 - 05 decreased 5 points to - 60. In domestic cotton spot, the price in Xinjiang decreased 85 points to 14513 with a - 0.58% change; in Henan, it decreased 113 points to 14755 with a - 0.76% change; in Shandong, it decreased 82 points to 14676 with a - 0.56% change. Xinjiang - main continuous basis decreased 90 points to 1243 [3] Yarn Futures and Spot Price Changes - Domestic棉纱 futures CY rose 35 points to 19325 on October 15 compared with October 14, with a 0.18% increase. The domestic棉纱 spot C32S price index remained unchanged at 20440 with a 0.00% change [3] Outer - market Cotton Price Changes - CT (USD/ lb) remained at 63 with a 0.00% change; the arrival price decreased 0.1 to 73.30 with a - 0.14% change; the US cotton spot 1% quota pick - up price decreased 18 to 12833 with a - 0.14% change; the sliding - duty pick - up price decreased 6 to 13872 with a - 0.04% change [3] Spread Data Changes - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) increased 30; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) increased 12; the domestic - foreign spread (spot) decreased 64 [3] Market Situation in Different Regions - In Xinjiang, the new - cotton harvest expectation is fulfilled. The purchase price of seed cotton first declined and then increased during the festival, generally showing a stable - with - increase trend. Cotton farmers mainly sell at a reasonable price. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is between 6 - 6.15 yuan/kg, and in southern Xinjiang, it is between 6 - 6.25 yuan/kg. The one - price sales quotation of ginning factories is between 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton. The downstream textile industry's "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and yarn mills' procurement is mainly for rigid demand [3] Outer - market Situation - The outer - market US cotton is running weakly. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of US cotton - related data is suspended, the recession concern deepens, and there is no news about the Sino - US tariff negotiation, which drags down the US cotton price [3]
贵金属数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 05:44
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On October 15, the Fed Chair Powell's speech suggesting a potential halt to balance - sheet reduction and not refuting the market's October rate - cut expectation led to a weaker US dollar index, boosting precious metal prices. Gold hit new highs, and silver was supported by high leasing rates. In the short - term, factors like Sino - US trade uncertainty, the ongoing US government shutdown, and a high probability of a Fed rate cut in October will support gold prices. Silver may face adjustment risks if the physical shortage eases. In the long - term, factors such as Fed rate - cut space, global geopolitical uncertainty, US debt issues, and central bank gold purchases will likely push up the long - term center of gold prices [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, London gold spot rose 2.2% to $4197.46/ounce, London silver spot rose 1.1% to $52.44/ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.2% to $4214.90/ounce, CONEX silver rose 3.0% to $51.43/ounce, AU2512 rose 2.3% to 960.34 yuan/gram, AG2512 had 0.0% change at 11533 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 2.4% to 957.30 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 3.8% to 11930 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From October 14 to 15, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread changed by - 23.4% to - 3.04 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread changed by - 1068.3% to 397 yuan/kilogram, the gold TD - London spread changed by - 75.8% to - 0.79 yuan/gram, the silver TD - London spread changed by - 15.6% to - 1412 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio rose 2.3% to 83.27, the COMEX + London ratio fell 0.7% to 81.95, the AU2602 - 2512 spread changed by - 757.4% to - 18.54 yuan/gram, and the AG2602 - 2512 spread had 0.0% change at 24 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.2 Position Data - From October 13 to 14, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 0.25% to 1021.45 tons, the silver ETF - SLV position fell 0.13% to 15733.09127 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold rose 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the non - commercial short position rose 9.43% to 66059 contracts, the non - commercial net long position rose 0.13% to 266749 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver rose 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the non - commercial short position fell 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position rose 1.43% to 52276 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.04% to 75099 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory fell 3.07% to 1030429 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory fell 0.16% to 39660680 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.88% to 515632550 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Other Market Data - From October 14 to 15, 2025, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 99.05, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.22% to 3.48%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.14% to 4.03%, the S&P 500 fell 0.49%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate rose 9.35%, the VIX fell 0.16%, and NYMEX crude oil fell 1.63% [4].
油脂数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 05:41
Report Summaries 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating suggests a range-bound market with a recommendation to wait and see [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current situation of the global oil and fat market, including spot and futures prices, inventory levels, and production and export data from major producers. It also highlights policy changes in Indonesia and the production progress of soybeans in Brazil and the United States [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On October 15, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9420, 9260, and 9200 respectively, each down 80 from the previous day [1] - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: Prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu on October 15, 2025, were 8420, 8520, and 8590 respectively, each down 30 from the previous day [1] - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: Prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu on October 15, 2025, were 10150, 10190, and 10470 respectively, each down 30 from the previous day [1] Futures Data - **Bean - Palm Main Contract Spread**: On October 15, 2025, it was - 1070, up 20 from the previous day [1] - **Rapeseed - Bean Main Contract Spread**: On October 15, 2025, it was 1680, down 39 from the previous day [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 500; soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 850 to 26294; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained at 7590 [1] International Market Conditions - **India**: In September 2025, total vegetable oil imports were 1639743 tons, slightly down from August. Palm oil imports decreased significantly, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports increased [2] - **Indonesia**: Plans to raise the crude palm oil (CPO) export tax from 10% to 15% to fund the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel. B50 is in the final testing stage, with full - scale testing expected in Q2 2026 and official implementation in the second half of the same year [2] - **Malaysia**: In September 2025, palm oil production was 184.12 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 1.06%. From October 1 - 10, 2025, production increased by 6.59% month - on - month. Exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.9% (ITS) and 19.4% (AmSpec) compared to the previous month [2] Domestic Market Conditions - **Soybean Production**: As of October 11, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 11.1%. As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the harvest rate was 19% [2]
工业硅数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 03:37
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon market show both supply and demand increasing. The continuous resumption of production by large northwest manufacturers drives up industrial silicon output. On the demand side, affected by the resumption of production in Qinghai and the ramping - up of new capacities in other regions, the production schedule of polysilicon in October is expected to increase. With the organic silicon production schedule in October being basically stable, silicon prices may fluctuate [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Content Futures Market - SI2510: Closing price is 8660, change rate is 1.23%, and open interest is 1183 [1] - SI2511: Closing price is 8570, change rate is - 0.12%, and open interest is 142381 [1] - SI2512: Closing price is 8945, change rate is - 0.28%, and open interest is 112415 [1] - SI2601: Closing price is 8875, change rate is - 0.34%, and open interest is 124630 [1] - SI2602: Closing price is 8885, change rate is - 0.34%, and open interest is 22957 [1] Spot Market - In the East China region: 553 (non - oxygen - passing) price is 9300 with no change; 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9400 with no change; 421 price is 9700 with no change; 441 price is 9650, up 200; 3303 price is 10550 with no change; 553 (flux - passing) price is 9450 with no change [1] - At Huangpu Port: 421 price is 10100 with no change; 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9300 with no change [1] - At Tianjin Port: 421 price is 9850 with no change; 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9600 with no change [1] - In Sichuan: 421 price is 9750 with no change [1] - DMC price is 11300 with no change; 107 glue price is 11500, down 2000; polysilicon (dense material, per kilogram) price is 51.25 with no change; average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21050, up 50 [1] Price Spread - SI2510 - SI2511 spread is 90, up 120; SI2511 - SI2512 spread is - 375, up 10; 421 spot - 553 oxygen - passing spot spread is 300 with no change; basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) is 830, down 50 [1] Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt - Total warehouse capacity is 280,000 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts yesterday was 42684, and today it is 42090, a decrease of 594 [1] Industry News - The environmental impact assessment public participation first - phase information of the 90,000 - ton organic silicon product project of Jiangxi Fuxin Organic Silicon Technology Co., Ltd. was released on the Jiujiang government website [1]
有色金属数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 03:37
IC ERING 2 3500 FEE 3 1 30 V 贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 方 网 官 www.itf.com.cn | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC EN .. | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 中金属数据日报 | | | 方冒起 | 国贸期货研究员 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 2025/10/16 | | | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | | | 价格指标 15:00期货价格 | 现货价格 | 变化 (%) | 变化 (%) 图表 | | | 制 10553. 5 | 10600 | -0.16 | -2. 44 LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | | 锌 2924. 5 | 3049 | -2.24 | -3.69 | | | LME 2725.5 品 | 1940 | -0. 84 | 1500000 -1. 43 | | | (美元/吨) | | | | | | 镍 15110 | ...
尿素数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 03:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic supply - demand situation of urea remains loose, and the recent market still has a downward trend. The market is mainly affected by macro and cost - side positives and weak domestic demand negatives, and is generally in a state of waiting while fluctuating [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The price of pulverized coal is 465.00, the price of smokeless small pieces is 920.00, and the price of natural gas is 3700.00 on October 15, 2025, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, and 20.00 respectively compared to the previous day [1] Price - On October 15, 2025, the prices in Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Shandong, and China FOB remained unchanged from the previous day, while the price in Shanxi increased by 10.00 to 1470.00. The prices of Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR also remained unchanged [1] Inventory - On October 15, 2025, the factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory remained unchanged at 144.39, 41.50, and 4050.00 respectively [1] Supply - On October 15, 2025, the 5 - day production was 199400.00, the overall开工率 was 85.24, the coal - based开工率 was 89.41, and the gas - based开工率 was 73.39, all remaining unchanged from the previous day [1] Demand - On October 15, 2025, the remaining待发订单 was 7.00, the复合肥开工 was 25.50, the melamine开工 was 65.47, and the formaldehyde开工 was 34.49, all remaining unchanged [1] Profit - On October 15, 2025, the profit of fixed - bed was - 327.00, the profit of water - coal slurry was 142.00, and the profit of natural gas was - 225.00, all remaining unchanged [1] Related Products - On October 15, 2025, the price of liquid ammonia was 2050.00, the price of compound fertilizer was 2450.00, the price of melamine was 5050.00, and the price of methanol was 2160.00 (down 10.00 from the previous day) [1] Futures - On October 15, 2025, the结算 price was 1604.00 (up 2.00 from the previous day), the基差 was - 60.00 (down 3.00 from the previous day), the涨跌幅 was 0.12 (up 0.31 from the previous day), the成交量 was 6117987.00 (down 23124.00 from the previous day), the持仓量 was 322686.00 (up 694.00 from the previous day), and the仓单量 was 6493.00 (down 77.00 from the previous day) [1]
日度策略参考-20251015
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 12:36
Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but beware of the recurrence of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Treasury bond prices are affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, suppressing the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver prices may fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to continuous disturbances in copper - mine supply and improved macro - liquidity, despite the suppression from global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to have limited downward space as they approach the cost line, although the fundamentals are weak with increasing production and inventory [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces callback risks due to the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions and repeated risk - aversion sentiment. Zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. in the non - ferrous sector are affected by various factors such as trade uncertainties, policy changes, and inventory levels, and their prices are expected to fluctuate or be under pressure in the short term [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil, soybean oil, and other varieties are affected by factors such as policies, reports, and inventory, and their prices have different trends. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and tariff policies, with different price trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Treasury bonds: Affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, the upward space is limited [1]. - Gold: Prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Despite trade - friction suppression, prices are expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited as it approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Faces short - term pressure, but the opening of the export window may support the domestic price if the LME inventory continues to decline [1]. - Nickel: Prices are mainly affected by the macro - situation in the short term, with high - inventory pressure. Short - term trading is recommended, and there is still pressure from primary - nickel surplus in the long term [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is a risk of callback in the non - ferrous sector, but there are still opportunities to go long at low levels in the long term due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Black metals - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand, and high inventory [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal, the short - term is in a wait - and - see state [1]. - Coking coal: The price is still in the process of bottom - seeking, but it is not suitable to chase short positions for now [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The Indonesian B50 policy may have a negative impact on near - month contracts, and the MPOB September report is expected to support prices [1]. - Soybean oil: The reduction of raw materials and oil - mill压榨 reduction support the price due to factors such as China's rare - earth export restriction and the expected reduction of US soybean ending stocks [1]. - Rapeseed oil: There is no new driving force, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term with the new - cotton listing [1]. - Sugar: The original - sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels in the domestic market [1]. - Corn: New - season corn is under selling pressure, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, geopolitical situation, and demand seasonality [1]. - Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and US tariff threats [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan's construction rush is likely to be falsified [1]. - Rubber: Affected by factors such as US tariffs, supply increase, and weak market atmosphere [1]. - BR rubber: The raw - material fundamentals are loose, and the downstream trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The domestic production has decreased due to unit maintenance [1]. - Ethylene glycol: The port inventory is low, but the price is under pressure due to imports and device commissioning [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory devices are gradually returning, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened [1]. - Styrene: The export sentiment has eased, and there is support at the cost end [1]. - PF: The price fluctuates strongly due to factors such as reduced market - price center and increased downstream demand [1]. - PVC: The price fluctuates weakly due to factors such as reduced maintenance and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Calcined alumina: The short - term price is bearish, and the medium - term is bullish [1]. - LPG: The upward momentum is limited due to factors such as OPEC production increase and high domestic inventory [1]. Shipping - Container shipping (European line): The price may rebound at a low level, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].
商品期权数据日报-20251015
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 09:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the data of commodity options on October 15, 2025, including the main contract prices, price changes, historical volatility, implied volatility, and the main at - the - money IV and its percentile of various commodities. [5][9][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Historical Volatility - Multiple commodities' historical volatility data (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) are provided, such as for furnace aluminum (20860, 0.00%, 14.58%, 9%, 8%, 8%, 9%), PVC (4692, - 0.59%, 19.21%, 11%, 11%, 19%, 18%), etc. [5] Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data show the main at - the - money IV of different commodities, like for polycrystalline silicon (41%, 73%, 13%, 48%), propylene (14%), urea (18%, 53%), etc. [9] Main At - the - Money IV Percentile - The main at - the - money IV percentile value is presented, but specific details are not clearly shown in the text. [13]