Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: For RB2601, the closing price was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.32%); trading volume was 883,015 lots, and the position decreased by 11,775 lots to 1,870,449 lots. For HC2601, the closing price was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.24%); trading volume was 337,428 lots, and the position increased by 1,955 lots to 1,369,716 lots [2]. - **Spot Price**: In Shanghai, the spot price of rebar was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Hangzhou, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged. For hot - rolled coils, in Shanghai, the price was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou, it was 3,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2601 was 123 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2601 was 42 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 was - 58 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 was 36 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 [Macro and Industry News] - **Steel Union Weekly Data (September 25)**: Rebar production increased by 0.01 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 9.47 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 9.13 million tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.41 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.14 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties increased by 23.73 million tons [3]. - **Social Inventory in Mid - September**: The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 941 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21 million tons (2.3%), and a year - on - year increase of 129 million tons (15.9%) [3][4]. - **National Steel Production in August**: The national production of crude steel was 7,737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 6,979 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel production was 12,277 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [4]. - **National Economic Data (January - August)**: The added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year; social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year [4]. - **Important Article in 'Qiushi'**: The article emphasizes efforts to rectify low - price disorderly competition among enterprises, government procurement and tendering irregularities, local investment promotion irregularities, promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade, and make up for the short - board of laws and regulations [4]. - **Steel Import and Export in August**: China exported 951.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons (3.3%); imported 50.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons (10.6%) [4]. 3.3 [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4593.49 | ↑0.60 | | 6698.7 | | | | | | IF2510 | 4585 | ↑0.83 | -8.49 | 511.1 | 37193 | ↓5543 | 59117 | ↑154 | | IF2511 | 4571.2 | ↑0.94 | -22.29 | 39.3 | 2872 | ↓1711 | 4008 | ↓466 | | IF2512 | 4562.2 | ↑0.88 | -31.29 | 1103.9 | 80775 | ↓5752 | 154619 | ↑2755 | | I ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the energy - chemical industry have various trends. For example, some commodities like PX, PTA are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium - term; some are in a short - term or medium - term oscillatory pattern; and some show a downward or upward trend [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - Market Data: PX, PTA, and MEG had price increases on September 25. PX's price was up 5 dollars/ton, PTA increased by 65 yuan/ton, and MEG rose by 6 yuan/ton. PX's processing fee decreased by 8.38 dollars/ton, and PTA's processing fee dropped by 14.61 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Dynamics: PX's price was affected by oil prices and downstream demand. Some producers were worried about future weak demand. PTA's load was at 76.8%, and its开工 rate was around 82.7%. MEG's overall mainland China开工负荷 was 73.08%, with a decline of 1.85% [6][8][9]. - Views and Suggestions: PX is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain weak in the medium - term. PTA follows a similar pattern. For MEG, it's recommended to hold a reverse spread on the 1 - 5 month difference and go short on a single - side [11][12]. Rubber - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the rubber's day - session closing price was 15,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day, and the night - session closing price was 15,355 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan. The trading volume increased by 20,816 hands [14]. - Industry News: Typhoon disturbances in production areas were less than expected, and buying sentiment was average. Raw material prices were stable to weak, and the de - stocking of natural rubber inventory was less than expected [15][16]. - Trend: The rubber market is expected to be oscillatory and weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the closing price of butadiene rubber's main contract was 11,545 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The trading volume was 83,685 hands, a decrease of 29,720 hands [18]. - Industry News: As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased by 0.14 million tons. The short - term commodity index was strong, and the synthetic rubber market was expected to enter an oscillatory pattern before the National Day [19][20]. - Trend: The synthetic rubber market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, with a trend strength of 0 [20]. Asphalt - Fundamental Data: On September 26, BU2511's closing price was 3,440 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The refinery's开工 rate was 49.88%, an increase of 2.66%, and the refinery's inventory rate was 27.11%, up 0.37% [21]. - Market News: In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the domestic asphalt's weekly output was 69.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. As of September 25, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories increased by 0.9%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 1.8% [33]. - Trend: The asphalt market has a slow - moving shipment, and the spot is under pressure. Its trend strength is 0 [21][30]. LLDPE - Fundamental Data: On September 26, L2601's closing price was 7169 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The 01 - contract basis was - 79 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 40 yuan [34]. - Spot News: This week, the domestic PE market price slightly decreased. Supply increased due to some plants restarting and imported goods arriving. Demand from industries like agricultural film and hollow products slightly improved [34]. - Market Analysis: In the short - term, the commodity sentiment improved, leading to a rebound in PE. In the medium - term, it may be in an oscillatory range due to factors like demand improvement in the agricultural film industry and inventory pressure relief [35]. PP - Fundamental Data: On September 26, PP2601's closing price was 6898 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The 01 - contract basis was - 198 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 43 yuan [39]. - Spot News: This week, the domestic PP market declined and then consolidated, with a price drop. Low - melt copolymer had a larger decline [40]. - Market Analysis: Short - term demand improved, but the cost was weak. It's recommended to be cautious when short - selling at a low level, and the medium - term may be an oscillatory market [40]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the 01 - contract futures price was 2537 yuan/ton, the cheapest deliverable 32 - caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 100 yuan [43]. - Spot News: Shandong's 32 - caustic soda's weekly average price decreased by 3.73%, and 50 - caustic soda's weekly average price dropped by 2.28%. Low - degree caustic soda's inventory increased [44]. - Market Analysis: Shandong's 32 - caustic soda spot is under pressure, but there are optimistic expectations from future alumina production. The market may be in a wide - range oscillation [44][45]. Pulp - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the pulp's day - session closing price was 5060 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 52,784 hands, and the position decreased by 7473 hands [49]. - Industry News: From January to August 2025, pulp imports increased by 5.0%. Supply was abundant, and port inventory was high. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [50][51]. - Trend: The pulp market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [48]. Glass - Fundamental Data: On September 26, FG601's closing price was 1270 yuan/ton, up 3.08%. The 01 - contract basis was - 100 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 113 yuan [53]. - Spot News: On September 26, the domestic float glass market price mainly increased, and the market shipment accelerated [53]. - Trend: The glass's original - sheet price is stable, and its trend strength is 1 [52][54]. Methanol - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the methanol's closing price was 2356 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 109,826 hands, and the position decreased by 15,683 hands [56]. - Spot News: The port's methanol market was slightly weak, and the inland market declined. The port's inventory decreased but remained high [58]. - Trend: The methanol market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, with a trend strength of 0 [56][59]. Urea - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the urea's closing price was 1674 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 97,407 hands, and the position increased by 1736 hands [61]. - Industry News: On September 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased by 5.29 million tons. Before the National Day, the urea futures may enter an oscillatory pattern [62]. - Trend: The urea market is expected to be oscillatory before the National Day, with a trend strength of 0 [63]. Styrene - Fundamental Data: On September 26, styrene's 2511 contract price was 7152 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The non - integrated profit was - 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton [64]. - Spot News: The macro - sentiment was weak, and the downstream's restocking willingness was low. The port's inventory was expected to accumulate [65]. - Trend: The styrene market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term, with a trend strength of 0 [64]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Data: On September 26, SA2601's closing price was 1315 yuan/ton, up 1.15%. The 01 - contract basis was - 115 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 89 yuan [69]. - Spot News: The domestic soda ash market was weakly stable and oscillatory. Supply was high, and demand was for rigid needs. The inventory decreased [69]. - Trend: The soda ash's现货 market has little change, and its trend strength is - 1 [67][70]. LPG and Propylene - Fundamental Data: On September 26, PG2510's closing price was 4380 yuan/ton, up 1.27%. PL2601's closing price was 6372 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The PDH开工率 was 69.5%, an increase from last week [72]. - Market News: On September 25, the price of 10 - month CP paper goods for propane decreased by 3 dollars/ton, and for butane also decreased by 3 dollars/ton [76]. - Trend: The LPG market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and propylene is expected to be weak at a high level in the short - term. Both have a trend strength of 0 [72][75]. PVC - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the 01 - contract futures price was 4935 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4760 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 175 yuan [78]. - Spot News: The domestic PVC spot market was oscillatory. The supply increased, and the inventory accumulated. The market sentiment was dull [78]. - Market Analysis: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [78]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Data: On September 26, FU2510's closing price was 2969 yuan/ton, up 1.64%. LU2510's closing price was 3366 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The Singapore FOB price of high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 0.13%, and low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.70% [80]. - Trend: The fuel oil market is oscillatory at a high level and entering a short - term adjustment. The low - sulfur fuel oil has a strong upward movement, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market rebounded strongly. Both have a trend strength of 0 [80]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Fundamental Data: On September 26, EC2510's closing price was 1173.0, up 3.99%. The SCFIS for the European route was 1254.92 points, with a weekly decline of 12.9% [82]. - Trend: The container freight index (European line) is expected to be strong in the short - term [82].

王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20765 | ୧୦ | -20 | 220 | 370 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20800 | l | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2664 | 10 | -41 | 97 | 145 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 146073 | 38157 | -81565 | 40886 | -23293 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 220640 | -674 | -29538 | -14059 | 13756 | | | | LME铝3M成交量 | 18169 | -1061 | -2784 | 1266 | ...

2025 年 09 月 26 日 豆粕：阿根廷恢复出口关税，反弹震荡 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3929 | +39 （+1.00%） | 3942 | +12 （+0.31%） | | 货 期 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2601 | 2967 | +45（+1.54%） | 2956 | -5（-0.17%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1012 | +3.5（+0.35%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 273.3 | -2.6（-0.94%） | | n a | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2950～3000， 较昨+10或+20或持平； 平； 12-1月M2601+50， | 较昨持平或 ...

2025 年 09 月 26 日 铅：库存持续下降，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17090 | 0.15% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2002.5 | 0.18% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 46256 | 2927 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 4762 | 174 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 62847 | 1776 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 159664 | -466 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -10 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -40.08 | 2.05 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -30 | 5 | 进口升贴水（美 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous rise of the US dollar restricts the upward movement of copper prices. The strong US economic data increases the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 82,710 with a daily increase of 3.44%, and the night - session closing price was 82,380 with a decrease of 0.40%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk was at 10,276 with a decrease of 0.43% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 334,893, an increase of 283,166 from the previous day, and the open interest was 238,523, an increase of 66,079. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 42,366, a decrease of 4,722, and the open interest was 296,000, an increase of 6,048 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 27,662, an increase of 243, and the LME copper inventory was 144,425, a decrease of 350. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 7.89%, a decrease of 0.24% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread decreased by 0.18, the保税 - zone warehouse receipt premium decreased by 4, and the Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 1,300. Many other spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US second - quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. The strong data increased the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path [1]. - **Industry**: In August, China's refined copper imports were 30.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. Congo was the largest supplier. Freeport declared force majeure at its Indonesian Grasberg mine, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower for copper and 6% lower for gold than the July 2025 estimate [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 09 月 26 日 锌：下方支撑 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 国 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22045 | 0.85% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2922.5 | 1.14% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 158280 | 48547 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10392 | 1957 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 131286 | -10581 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 217087 | 1804 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -55 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 40 | 0 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴 ...

2025 年 9 月 26 日 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1.铁合金在线：9 月 25 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5400-5450，青海 5250-5350，甘肃 5300- 5400（-50），内蒙 5350-5400；75#硅铁：陕西 6150-6200，宁夏 6000-6100，青海 6000-6100， 甘肃 6000-6050，内蒙 6100-6150（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 FOB：72#1050-1070， 75#1120-1150（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#北方报价 5650-5750 元/吨；南方报价 5750-5800 元 /吨。（现金出厂含税报价） 2.铁合金在线：山东某钢厂日照公司敲定硅铁采购价为 5680 元/吨现金，较上一轮跌 60 元/吨，量 550 吨。山东某钢厂硅锰定标 5870 元/吨承兑含税到厂，采购量 1000 吨。山东某钢厂硅锰定标 5950 元/ 吨承兑含税到厂，采购量 3100 吨。 3、铁合金在线：据本网调研统计，内蒙地区 9 月在产硅铁企业 12 家，在产矿热炉 72 台，9 月硅 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including market data and macro - industry news. It shows that lithium carbonate production continues to increase and the market is in an oscillatory state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 74,040, with a change of 1,160 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 342,719, down 2,502 from T - 1; the open interest was 261,141, up 487 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 74,000, with a change of 1,140 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 85,570, down 1,336 from T - 1; the open interest was 178,347, down 8 from T - 1. The warehouse receipt volume was 40,309, up 560 from T - 1 [1]. - **Base - related Data**: The spot - 2511 was - 290, down 1,260 from T - 1; the spot - 2601 was - 250, down 1,240 from T - 1; the 2511 - 2601 basis was 40, up 20 from T - 1; the electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,250, unchanged from T - 1; the spot - CIF was 6,772, down 132 from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 856, unchanged from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,875, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750, down 100 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500, down 100 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,678 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week's lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, an increase of 153 tons from last week. The industry inventory was 136,825 tons, a decrease of 706 tons from last week [2]. - **Project News**: The 10,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project of the green comprehensive development and utilization of Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet was officially put into production on September 20 - 24, 2025 [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].