Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products from Guotai Junan Futures on September 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, etc. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Palm oil: Supported by US soybean oil, it is advisable to take a long - position at low prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans closed higher, and the outcome of China - US negotiations should be monitored [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Affected by the sentiment of economic and trade talks, it may rebound from an oversold condition [2][13]. - Soybean: It will fluctuate in a rebound [2][13]. - Corn: It will move in a sideways pattern [2][16]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to macro - policies [2][20]. - Cotton: The market is focused on the listing of new cotton [2][24]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is ending, and inventory remains high [2][30]. - Pigs: The weakness of spot prices is hard to reverse, while policies are relatively strong [2][32]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][36]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,422 yuan/ton with a 1.36% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,476 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 0.65% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,392 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase [5]. - **News**: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 742,648 tons, a 2.55% increase from the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in August 2025 increased by 15.76% month - on - month to 990,528 tons [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [12]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,042 yuan/ton with a 1.46% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 3,043 yuan/ton with a 0.26% decrease. DCE soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,939 yuan/ton with a 0.43% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 3,946 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase [13]. - **News**: On September 15, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to harvest pressure and concerns about Chinese demand. As of September 14, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 5% [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both soybean meal and soybean is +1 [15]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,167 yuan/ton with a 1.46% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,169 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,156 yuan/ton with a 0.60% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,159 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [17]. - **News**: The northern corn collection and port price was 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for corn is 0 [19]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The original sugar price was 16.67 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,549 yuan/ton [20]. - **News**: India's monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for sugar is 1 [23]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase, and the night - session closing price was 13,910 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase [24]. - **News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the inventory of high - quality lint was low [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for cotton is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2510's closing price was 3,126 yuan/500 kg with a 2.90% increase, and egg 2601's closing price was 3,369 yuan/500 kg with a 0.51% increase [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for eggs is 0 [30]. Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price was 13,330 yuan/ton, and the Sichuan spot price was 13,100 yuan/ton [32]. - **Market Logic**: The supply in September is expected to increase significantly, and the spot price is likely to decline further. The 7 - month contract may be subject to policy regulation in the short term [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for pigs is 0 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 8,360 yuan/ton [36]. - **Spot Market**: The new - season peanuts are expected to be listed in late September. The prices in various regions are generally stable [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for peanuts is 0 [40].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - PVC is short - term bullish but faces medium - term pressure. Market anti - deflation and anti - involution factors make PVC short - term strong, yet its fundamentals show high production, high inventory, and policy - disturbed exports, leading to medium - term pressure [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - 01 contract futures price is 4921, East China spot price is 4740, basis is - 181, and 1 - 5 month spread is - 303 [1]. [Spot News] - Favorable industrial macro - policies and a rising domestic commodity market drive up PVC prices. Week - long production enterprise maintenance reduces supply, and pre - holiday terminal stocking is expected to slow inventory growth. Cost supports the firm price. East China calcium carbide type 5 PVC is 4700 - 4800 yuan/ton, and ethylene - based PVC is 4850 - 5050 yuan/ton [1]. [Market Condition Analysis] - Short - term: Market anti - deflation and anti - involution factors make PVC short - term strong. Medium - term: "Subsidizing chlorine with soda" results in insufficient production cut incentives, high supply, weak domestic demand, difficult inventory transfer, rising PVC warehouse receipts, and potential export policy disruptions, so the high - production and high - inventory structure is hard to change, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [1]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].

2025 年 09 月 16 日 品 研 究 合成橡胶：短期宏观情绪偏暖，震荡运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,705 | 11,615 | 90 | | | 顺丁橡胶主力 （10合约） | 成交量 | （手） | 51,478 | 52,955 | -1477 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 64,618 | 21,059 | 43559 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 298,395 | 306,525 | -8131 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -5 | 85 | -90 | | | 月差 | BR10-BR11 | | 40 | 45 | -5 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,500 ...

2025 年 9 月 16 日 沥青：开工再涨，去库放缓 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,411 | 0.53% | 3,445 | 1.00% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,393 | 0.74% | 3,429 | 1.06% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 16,222 | (26,977) | 22,858 | (3,088) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 204,310 | (34,468) | 240,677 | (11,963) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 67360 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of LLDPE is rated as 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook, with a range of [-2, 2] where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [3] Report's Core View - LLDPE is expected to be short - term strong and mid - term range - bound. The short - term strength is due to macro sentiment, improving demand, and relatively low inventory. The mid - term may see a range - bound situation considering factors like supply changes [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The L2601 contract had a closing price of 7232, a daily increase of 0.81%, trading volume of 264,026, and a decrease in open interest of 6135 [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 contract basis was - 152 (previous day: - 89), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 20 (previous day: - 12) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the price was 7080 yuan/ton (unchanged); in the East China region, it was 7160 yuan/ton (up from 7140); in the South China region, it was 7300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] Spot News - LLDPE market prices had small fluctuations of 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Linear futures rose, but while coal - chemical enterprises raised prices, some prices of Sinopec and PetroChina were lowered. Downstream demand was slow, leading to cautious purchasing and poor sales, and no obvious increase in the spot market [1] Market Condition Analysis - Affected by macro sentiment, PE is short - term strong. Demand for PE is improving as the agricultural film industry starts seasonal stockpiling. In September, the maintenance volume is similar to August, and the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in the East China region. Polyethylene social inventory is lower year - on - year, with a slight reduction this week and overall low pressure [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Due to the approaching Fed interest rate meeting and the warming domestic macro - sentiment, the bulk market is strong, driving a short - term rebound in urea. With significant volume in low - price spot transactions on Monday, low - price spot is temporarily stable in the short term, and high - price spot is moving towards low - price spot. So, with a strong macro and increased spot trading volume, short - term urea futures and spot prices are expected to be supported in the oscillation. Medium - term, the downward trend logic remains unchanged. Urea still maintains a high premium, and the high valuation may limit the speculative upside of the market. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: On September 16, the closing price of urea futures was 1,683 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,679 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The trading volume of the urea main contract (01 contract) was 166,237 lots, an increase of 41,590 lots; the open interest was 284,978 lots, a decrease of 15,607 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,613 tons, a decrease of 234 tons; the trading volume was 558.324 million yuan, an increase of 142.652 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was - 43, down 40; the basis of Fengxi - futures was - 143, down 20; the basis of Dongguang - futures was 17, down 20. The spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 48, up 7. [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged. The price of Shandong Ruixing decreased by 20 yuan to 1,600 yuan/ton. The trader prices in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan to 1,640 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi remained unchanged. The supply - side indicators showed that the daily output was 185,090 tons, an increase of 200 tons, and the operating rate was 79.12%, an increase of 0.09%. [1] Industry News - On September 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 191,200 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous day and 1,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 81.73%, a decrease of 3.51% from 85.24% in the same period last year. [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides investment outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and the container shipping index (European line). The outlooks range from bullish to bearish, with different trends and strategies recommended for each commodity [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Expected to be weak in the short term, with a positive spread strategy for the 11-01 contract and a reverse spread for the 1-5 contract. PXN compression positions should be stopped at a profit below $220. The domestic PX operating rate is 87.8% (+4.1%), and several domestic and overseas plants have restarted or are expected to restart. The PTA load is 76.8% (+4%), and future PTA plant restarts and new installations are expected [11]. - **PTA**: Likely to be weak, with a positive spread strategy for the 11-01 contract and a reverse spread for the 1-5 contract. PTA processing fees are in a downward trend, and the polyester load is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, which will have a negative impact on PTA [12]. - **MEG**: Expected to be weak, with a reverse spread strategy for the 1-5 contract. Supply pressure is increasing, and the polyester load is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [13][14]. Rubber - Expected to have a wide range of fluctuations, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is affected by news of new tariff reforms in Mexico, which may increase the pressure on domestic tire exports [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - Facing increasing fundamental pressure and short-term volatility, but with support from macro expectations. The market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with supply growth exceeding demand growth, leading to increased inventory pressure. It is recommended to short at high valuations [20][23]. Asphalt - Showing stable sales, with prices decreasing in the south and increasing in the north. The weekly production decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous week, and both factory and social inventories decreased [25][40]. LLDPE - Expected to have a medium-term oscillatory market. PE demand is improving due to the peak season for agricultural film production, and supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The polyethylene social inventory is relatively low, and the overall pressure is not significant [41][42]. PP - The market may be weak in the short term, but caution is needed when shorting at low levels in the later stage. The market may be oscillatory in the medium term. Short-term demand has improved, but cost support is weak, and supply pressure is increasing [45][46]. Caustic Soda - Expected to be weak in the short term. The market is currently under pressure due to insufficient export profits and high alumina production and inventory. The market is difficult to resonate between futures and spot before alumina starts stocking [49][51]. Pulp - Expected to oscillate. The market is stable, with high port inventories and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory digestion and macro news [55][58]. Glass - The price of glass sheets is stable. The domestic float glass market has mixed price changes, with slow market transactions [60][61]. Methanol - Expected to oscillate in the short term, with pressure from high supply and support from improving fundamentals and anti-monopoly policies. The port inventory has increased significantly [63][66]. Urea - Expected to be weak, with a focus on spot transactions and macro sentiment. Although exports are accelerating, they are unlikely to compensate for the weak domestic demand. The overall inventory has increased [68][70]. Styrene - Expected to be bearish in the medium term. The cost center has shifted downward due to OPEC production increases, and the short-term downward space for pure benzene and styrene has expanded [72][73]. Soda Ash - The spot market has changed little. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high supply and stable demand [74][76]. LPG - Expected to have a short-term narrow and strong oscillation [78]. Propylene - Expected to be weak at high levels in the short term. The PDH operating rate has decreased, and the MTBE and alkylation operating rates have also declined [79]. PVC - Expected to oscillate at a low level. The PVC market has high production and inventory, and exports may slow down due to policy disturbances [88][90]. Fuel Oil - Short-term rebound with increasing volatility. Low-sulfur fuel oil has a slight rebound, and the price difference between high and low-sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [91]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2510 contract is under pressure, while the EC2512 and EC2602 contracts are expected to have wide fluctuations [93].

Report Overview - The report provides a weekly preview of key economic events and their potential impacts on the futures market from September 15 - 19, 2025 [2][3][5] Key Economic Events and Their Impacts September 15 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities at 09:30, and the report's impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation at 10:00, releasing macro - economic data such as fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and total retail sales of consumer goods. If 1 - 8 months' urban fixed - asset investment growth is slightly lower than the previous value, 8 - month total retail sales of consumer goods growth is slightly higher, and 8 - month industrial added value growth is basically the same as the previous value, the impact on relevant futures prices will be neutral. Expected 1 - 8 months' cumulative year - on - year growth of urban fixed - asset investment is 1.4% (1 - 7 months was 1.6%); 8 - month year - on - year growth of above - scale industrial added value is 5.7% (7 months was 5.7%); 8 - month year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods is 3.8% (7 months was 3.7%); 8 - month surveyed unemployment rate is expected to be 5.2% (7 months was 5.2%) [4] September 16 - The US Department of Commerce will release US August retail sales at 20:30. Expected August retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value was 0.5%); expected core retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value was 0.3%). A slightly lower retail sales monthly rate will mildly help gold and silver futures prices rise but mildly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices [5] - The Federal Reserve will release US August industrial output at 21:15. Expected August industrial output monthly rate is 0% (previous value was - 0.1%). A slightly higher industrial output monthly rate will mildly help non - ferrous metals futures prices rise but mildly suppress gold and silver futures prices [8] September 17 - The US Department of Commerce will release August building permits and new housing starts at 20:30. Expected August annualized total of building permits is 1.37 million (previous value was 1.362 million); expected August annualized total of new housing starts is 1.4 million (previous value was 1.428 million) [9] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 20:30, expected to cut the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% [10] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 12 at 22:30. If the inventory continues to increase, it will suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [11] - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) will release the global metal supply - demand report, and its impact on relevant non - ferrous metals futures prices should be noted [12] September 18 - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision, monetary policy statement, and economic forecast summary at 02:00, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. There is a 93.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut to 4% - 4.25%, and a very slight possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. If the monetary policy statement and Powell's speech imply continuous 25 - basis - point rate cuts on October 29 and December 10 (US Eastern Time), it will help commodity and index futures prices rise but suppress Treasury bond futures prices [13] - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% [14] - The US Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 at 20:30. Expected number is 270,000 (previous value was 263,000). A slightly higher number will mildly suppress industrial product futures prices (except gold and silver) but mildly help gold and silver futures prices rise [15] September 19 - The Bank of Japan will announce the interest rate decision at 11:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield target unchanged [16] Other Factors to Note - Pay attention to domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials for their impacts on the futures market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Later, be cautious about short - selling at low levels for PP, and it may be a volatile market in the medium - term [1] - Short - term demand improves month - on - month, but the cost side remains weak. Supply pressure will increase in the future, but there are also positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 6913, with a daily decline of 0.43%. The trading volume was 255,093, and the open interest increased by 19,156. The 01 - contract basis was - 193, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 23 [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PP in North China was 6700 - 6860 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6920 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6690 - 6900 yuan/ton yesterday [1] 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market declined slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Futures fluctuated at a low level, weakening cost support. Traders actively sold goods, and downstream demand was weak [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Short - term demand improves, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase due to the resumption of maintenance devices and new capacity expansion. However, there are positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 15 日 铝：突破上行 氧化铝：偏弱运行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21120 | 205 | 425 | 470 | 920 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21075 | l | ー | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2701 | 22 | 99 | 80 | 251 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 165717 | 58832 | 64182 | 72845 | -2606 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 209277 | 4695 | 11884 | -15660 | 1377 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 2 ...