1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the natural rubber market is affected by macro factors and is expected to follow the overall trend of the energy - chemical sector. After the holiday, the weather in overseas main producing areas is expected to improve, increasing supply and weakening cost support. Although downstream enterprises plan for short - term maintenance during the holiday and the spot inventory is continuously accumulating, the return of funds after the holiday and the impact of the external market during the holiday may drive the rubber price to fluctuate slightly stronger [104]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, with a 0.6% year - on - year decrease in exports to China. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4.6% year - on - year, with a 24% year - on - year increase in exports to China. The implementation details of the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy were released, expanding the scope of support [5][7]. Market Trends - This week, the domestic rubber futures market declined, while the overseas market rose. For example, the closing price of RU2605 decreased by 1.11% compared to the previous period, and the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 increased by 0.17% [9][11]. Price - Related - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The basis of whole milk - RU05 and the 05 - 09 calendar spread both increased, with a 26.04% and 100.00% increase respectively compared to the previous period [12]. - **Other Spreads**: Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SICOM TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased. The basis of non - standard rubber strengthened, and the spreads between whole milk - Thai mixed rubber and 3L - Thai mixed rubber expanded [17][20][23]. - **Substitute Prices**: The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, continued to rise, providing bottom support for the short - term market price [30]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of both RU and NR decreased. For example, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased by 16.46% compared to the previous period, and the settled funds decreased by 11.80% [33][35]. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weather**: The rainy season in southern Thailand is approaching the end, and the rainfall is decreasing. The rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have basically ended [38][40]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Due to the缓解 of overseas geopolitical tensions, raw material prices have fallen [42]. - **Raw Material Spreads**: The water - cup spread in Thailand has expanded, and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole milk factories has remained stable [46]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: As raw material prices fall, the rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally improved [49]. - **Delivery Profits**: The delivery profit in Hainan has decreased, and the data in Yunnan has stopped updating due to the suspension of tapping [53]. - **Exports**: In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports and a decrease in the exports of smoked sheets, standard rubber, and mixed rubber. The exports to China also decreased month - on - month. In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - month due to a sharp decrease in standard rubber exports, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month. In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. The exports to China rebounded seasonally, with a large increase in standard rubber and latex exports. In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased significantly [60][66][72]. - **Imports**: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber) were 643,600 tons, a 25.98% increase month - on - month and a 14.76% increase year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased year - on - year [78]. - **Demand** - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: During the "New Year's Day" holiday, some tire enterprises planned for short - term maintenance, and the tire inventory continued to accumulate last week [81]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In November 2025, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month with an accelerated growth rate. Passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - month growth rate continued to decline. Tire exports improved slightly month - on - month [84]. - **Road Transport Turnover**: In November 2025, the freight turnover of road transport rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [88]. - **Inventory** - **Spot Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate seasonally. The increase in Qingdao's inventory slowed down compared to the previous period, mainly due to a 7.8% decrease in the warehousing volume of sample warehouses and some tire enterprises' procurement before the festival. The inventory in Yunnan continued to accumulate [94]. - **Futures Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 100,600 tons, a 7.09% increase compared to the previous week, and the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 58,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared to the previous week [100]. This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: As of December 31, there was no data on raw material prices in Thailand due to the holiday. The price of Hainan glue for whole milk production was 15,000 yuan/ton, and the price for concentrated latex production was also 15,000 yuan/ton. As of December 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.201 million tons, a 1.7% increase compared to the previous period [104]. - **Demand**: During the "New Year's Day" holiday, some enterprises planned for short - term maintenance, and most enterprises maintained normal production, adjusting according to their own inventory and order situations [104]. - **View**: After the holiday, the supply in overseas main producing areas is expected to increase, weakening cost support. Although the downstream inventory is accumulating and enterprises are having maintenance, the return of funds and the external market impact may drive the rubber price to fluctuate slightly stronger. The recommended strategies are to wait and see for RU and look for short - selling opportunities when the price is high, and to observe for cross - period and cross - variety trading [104][105].

Report Summary Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, US soybean futures prices declined due to limited Chinese purchases, weak US soybean export data, and South American weather pressure. During the week of January 2, the main March contract of US soybeans dropped 2.4%, and the main March contract of US soybean meal fell 3.74% [1]. - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), domestic soybean meal futures prices rose first and then fell, while soybean futures prices rose strongly. After the holiday (January 5 - 9, 2026), it is expected that both Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures prices will fluctuate [1][5]. Detailed Summaries by Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals (December 29, 2025 - January 2, 2026) - Chinese purchases of US soybeans were limited, with a cumulative sales volume of approximately 36.7 tons to China and unknown destinations and 10 tons to Egypt in the week of December 29 - January 2. As of the week of December 18, 2025, China's purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season totaled about 603 tons [1]. - As of the week of December 18, 2025, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were about 85 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 46%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1401 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 47% [1]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [1]. - As of the week of December 31, 2025, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 82%, behind the 93% of the same period last year, gradually approaching the end [1]. - According to the January 2 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 3 - 17, 2026), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and temperatures will be "low first and then high"; in Argentina, precipitation will be less (improving from January 8), and temperatures will be low [1]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Trading volume increased week - on - week. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 20 tons, compared with about 16 tons in the previous week [3]. - Pick - up volume decreased slightly week - on - week. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 18.2 tons, compared with about 18.3 tons in the previous week [3]. - The basis increased slightly week - on - week. The weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 356 yuan/ton, compared with about 353 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 252 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - Inventory increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 103 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 65% [3]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Soybean prices were stable and slightly stronger. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some northeastern regions increased by 40 - 60 yuan/ton week - on - week, remained flat in some inland areas, and the sales price in the sales areas of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 40 - 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. - The state - reserve soybean auction had good results, but the premium decreased. On December 29, the planned auction volume was about 19 tons, the actual transaction volume was about 15.59 tons, the reserve price was 3950 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 4014 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - The trading of soybeans in the sales areas was slow, but attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking demand. As the Spring Festival approached, there was restocking demand in all market segments, and prices may rise [4]. Post - holiday Forecast (January 5 - 9, 2026) - For soybean meal, pay attention to US soybean export demand (Chinese purchases, weekly US soybean export sales reports) and South American weather [5]. - For soybeans, due to the strong pre - holiday policy sentiment but the weak external soybean market, it is expected that the domestic futures market will fluctuate after the pre - holiday rise. Pay attention to the subsequent state - reserve release [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs showed a pattern of being strong first and then weak this week, with the futures price trending strongly. Looking ahead to next week, the spot price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2603 contract price will continue to face pressure [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (12.29 - 1.4) - **Spot Market**: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 21.75 yuan/kg (21.1 yuan/kg last week), the price of live pigs in Henan was 12.45 yuan/kg (12.08 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The supply was tight at the end of the month due to reduced volume from large - scale farms and strong reluctance to sell among small farmers. Demand decreased after the New Year's Day holiday. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.54KG, a 0.2% month - on - month decrease [2]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2603 contract of live pig futures had a high of 11,880 yuan/ton, a low of 11,670 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,795 yuan/ton (11,645 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2603 contract was 655 yuan/ton (435 yuan/ton last week) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (1.5 - 1.11) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is large as the overall slaughter progress in December was fast, and the supply increase was amplified before the winter solstice. After the winter solstice, the shortage of pigs in some social groups led to reluctance to sell, and the entry of secondary fattening increased the price. However, after the New Year's Day, the downstream negative feedback was obvious, and the price accelerated to decline. From the supply perspective, the supply will enter a continuous incremental stage until March 2026. From the demand perspective, the low price in October stimulated demand, and the entry of secondary fattening was continuous, but it also over - drafted the speculative demand for re - stocking. After December, the demand for curing and normal consumption increased, but after New Year's Day, it entered a demand vacuum period, and the price will continue to be under pressure [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11,795 yuan/ton on December 31. During the holiday, the supply from large - scale farms decreased, but the downstream negative feedback was strong, and the price of the spot market dropped rapidly. Pay attention to the change in social sentiment. In January, it may enter a resonance stage between large - scale farms and the social side. The current weight has just started to decline, and the change in feed data is small, indicating the start of active de - stocking. The 3 - month contract will continue to be under pressure. The short - term support level of the LH2603 contract is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,200 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis was 655 yuan/ton; the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 370 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply Data**: This week's average weight was 124.54KG (124.79KG last week). In October, the pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% month - on - month increase; the pork import was 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% month - on - month decrease [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Platinum: Neutral [3] - Palladium: Neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum and palladium have entered a consolidation period and are seeking a more rational price point to restart. The overall volatility of precious metal varieties is expected to decline next week [3][5] - The prices of Guangbo and Guangpalladium retreated significantly this week, but their fundamentals remain unchanged. The capital outflow from the precious metal sector may be due to profit - taking or pre - holiday risk - aversion. After the market sentiment was cooled, platinum and palladium will gradually find a reasonable price [5] 3. Summaries by Directory Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - **Price and Volume**: This week, Guangbo and Guangpalladium followed silver in a significant retreat. The main platinum contract fell 22.08% and the main palladium contract fell 15.33%. Both were heavily reduced in position, with palladium having a larger reduction. The trading volume and position of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts [5][6][8] - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: The spread between London platinum spot and NYMEX platinum main contract converged and inverted, and the spread between NYMEX platinum continuous and main contract was slightly at a discount. The spread between London palladium spot and NYMEX palladium main contract also converged [11][13] - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: There are profit opportunities in platinum and palladium spot - futures positive arbitrage, near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage, and import parity arbitrage [15][17][19][21][23][25] - **Recycling Spread**: As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium declined, the recycling discounts of platinum and palladium converged to - 60 yuan/gram and - 50 yuan/gram respectively [27] - **ETF Holdings**: This week, platinum ETF holdings increased by 1.02 tons (about 32,700 ounces) and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.61 tons (about 19,500 ounces). The growth rate of platinum ETF holdings is rising, and that of palladium is slower but stronger than last week [29] Fundamental Aspect (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Premium/Discount Rate**: In the past month, the overseas forward markets of platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the platinum discount in the domestic market has risen significantly, and the palladium discount structure has returned to near - month > far - month [34] - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: This week, NYMEX platinum inventory increased slightly to 652,800 ounces (about 20.30 tons), and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 55%. NYMEX palladium inventory continued to flow in slightly to 210,000 ounces (about 6.53 tons), and the registered warehouse receipt ratio fell to 67% [35][38] - **China's Import - Export Data**: Since September 2025, platinum exports have surged, and the net inflow has slowed down. Since 2020, palladium has been in a pure import state, and the net inflow increased in November [45] - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: This week, the average supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was 100 kg. The supply - demand balance of London palladium fixing was negative only for 2 days with a small absolute value [47][49]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期偏强 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：短期偏强 | 供应 | • | 本周(20251226-20260101)中国甲醇产量为2051065吨，较上周减少15110吨，装置产能利用率为90.31%，环比跌0.73%。本周国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 多于检修、减产涉及产能损失量，导致本周产能利用率上涨。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量205.11万吨左右，产能利用率90.31% | | | | 左右，较本期微涨。下周计划计划恢复涉及产能多于检修及减产涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率提升，产量增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • • | 烯烃：华东MTO企业负荷仍有降低，青海盐湖MTO装置计划重启， ...

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term price center of synthetic rubber is expected to move up, and it will enter a volatile phase in the medium term. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to be strong, but there is still high - supply pressure in the medium term [2][4][7]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View 3.1.1 Supply - In January 2026, China's expected output of cis - butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, a growth of 10,100 tons compared to December 2025. One plant is planned for maintenance in the next month, with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons/year. Some other plant maintenance plans may be cancelled, and a 30,000 - ton high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Dushanzi Petrochemical is planned to stop production throughout 2026 [4]. - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. Due to strong expectations of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation is temporarily invalid. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost supporting the lower - end valuation [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the rigid - demand aspect, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to continue weak operation from December 26, 2025, to January 1, 2026. Some enterprises arranged regular maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, and the end - of - month production schedule decreased. Some enterprises continued to control production, so the overall capacity utilization rate may decline slightly [6]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains high, so the substitution demand is also high. Thus, the overall demand for cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. Affected by factors such as the cost boost, the expected strong market in the first and middle of January, and pre - holiday stocking, some production enterprises significantly reduced inventory, while sample trading enterprises' inventory increased [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton (dynamically moving up following the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually narrows [5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View 3.2.1 Supply From December 19 to 25, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 112,500 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. Some plants were shut down, and the Dongming plant restarted after a temporary short - stop. Next week, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises is about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of output from the Dongming Petrochemical plant [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the reduction of cis - butadiene rubber plant maintenance, the rigid - demand procurement volume of synthetic rubber for butadiene is expected to remain high [9]. - In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand [9]. - In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand for butadiene maintains rigid - demand procurement with little change [9]. 3.2.3 Inventory From December 25 to 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene inventory fluctuated slightly. The total sample inventory decreased by 0.13% month - on - month compared to last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 4.58% month - on - month, while the sample port inventory increased by 3.23% month - on - month. Traders expect imports to decrease in January [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [12]. - To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene rubber, and cis - butadiene rubber, the butadiene industry is also in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [14]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals 3.4.1 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output: The weekly output and daily operating rate data of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber from 2020 to 2025 are presented, and the operating status and future plans of various enterprises' plants are also provided [47][48]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross - profit rate data of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber from 2015 to 2026 are presented [49][50][51]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export quantity data of cis - butadiene rubber from 2015 to 2025 are presented, as well as the weekly apparent demand data from 2020 to 2026 [52][53][54]. - Inventory: The weekly enterprise inventory, trade - enterprise inventory, and SHFE futures inventory data of cis - butadiene rubber are presented [57][59]. 3.4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand The inventory and operating - rate data of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand for cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the temporary tightening of pit - mouth supply, the prices of thermal coal at the pit - mouth and ports have stabilized and rebounded [3]. - The domestic supply contraction of thermal coal has expanded, and it is in the seasonal production - reduction period at the mine end at the end of the month [5]. - The total power coal demand shows different trends in different sectors, with a decline in metallurgical and construction coal consumption and a rapid increase in heating and other coal consumption in November [45]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal Fundamental Data - The prices of thermal coal at the pit - mouth and ports have stabilized and rebounded due to the temporary tightening of pit - mouth supply [3]. 3.2 Power Coal Supply - **Domestic Supply**: As of December 26, the output of 462 sample domestic mines was about 3.6428 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.4%, and the capacity utilization rate also decreased week - on - week. The 462 samples involve a production capacity of 2.11 billion tons, accounting for about 65% of the total production capacity of national thermal coal mines. In November 2025, the total raw coal production was 426.793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The production in Shaanxi increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [5][7][8]. - **Global Supply**: The total global port coal departure volume decreased slightly week - on - week, while the departure volume from Australian ports increased. The total amount of coal floating to China decreased slightly, and the amount of Australian coal increased month - on - month affected by the departure volume. As of December 26, the main arrival volume of thermal coal this week was 1.07997 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 119,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 191,390 tons [15][18][21]. 3.3 Power Coal Demand - **Electricity - Related Demand**: Affected by the cooling in the north, the electricity coal consumption increased week - on - week. As of December 30, 2025, in terms of electricity, the average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week totaled 6.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 140,000 tons, and the average coal supply totaled 6.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons. The average daily consumption of eight coastal provinces was 2.131 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons and a week - on - week increase of 14,000 tons. The average daily consumption of 17 inland provinces was 3.981 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 160,000 tons and a week - on - week increase of 122,000 tons. Although the average coal consumption increased slightly, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces still increased, and the inventory of power plants in 17 inland provinces was high with a slow - down in coal consumption rate [28][31][37]. - **Other Demands**: The blast furnace operation rate increased week - on - week, providing weak support for metallurgical demand. The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker increased slightly week - on - week. The chemical coal demand remained stable in the short term [26][29]. 3.4 Power Coal Demand Substitution - The total social power generation decreased, and both thermal and hydropower generation declined. The utilization of wind and water energy decreased month - on - month [39][42]. 3.5 Total Power Coal Demand In November, the coal consumption for metallurgy and construction decreased, while the coal consumption for heating and other purposes increased rapidly [45]. 3.6 Power Coal Inventory - As of December 26, the inventory of sample thermal coal enterprises' mines was 303,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 351,000 tons. The inventory in northern ports increased, and the market demand for thermal coal in ports has slightly eased recently [48][51]. 3.7 Power Coal Transportation - The short - term supply - demand structure of transportation capacity remains in a loose pattern, and the outbound volume has rebounded from a low level. The thermal coal freight index fluctuates at a low level, and the upward support is limited [56][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain [15] - The cost - driven PX market has strong support, and the long - spread position should be held; the PTA market is in a high - level oscillation range with cost - driven strength and the long - spread position should be maintained; the MEG market is suitable for range operation with a weak mid - term trend and a short - spread position [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX price fluctuates and the curve near - end is flat; the 05 - 9 month spread strengthens, while the 1 - 5 spread weakens [17][19] - PXN expands due to weak naphtha demand, and the aromatics blending oil demand is weak [24][27] - The aromatics blending oil economy weakens, the PX - MX spread hits a new high, and the overseas MX isomerization economy improves [38][42][46] - The profitability of STDP units at home and abroad recovers, and the enthusiasm for starting work is restored [48] Supply and Demand, Inventory - The domestic PX operating rate is at a historical high. The 100 - million - ton PX device of Dalian Fujia is restarting, and the Asian overall operating rate is 79.5% (+0.6%) [53][55] - In November, PX imports were 820,000 tons, with an increase in imports from South Korea and Japan and a decline from Brunei [60] - In November, Japan's aromatics production and inventory declined; South Korea's aromatics export and inventory data show certain trends [71][78] - In November, the long - term PX monthly inventory accumulated by 50,000 tons to 4.07 million tons [85] PTA Valuation and Profit - The PTA price rises significantly, the basis rebounds steadily, the basis and month - spread of the 1 - 5 contract change, and the warehouse receipt volume decreases marginally [87][91] - The processing fee rebounds from the bottom, the overall price of the polyester chain moves up, and the downstream follow - up increase is limited [93][94] Supply and Demand, Inventory - The PTA operating rate stabilizes at 71 - 72%. The 2.5 - million - ton device of Xin凤鸣 Phase I and the 1.2 - million - ton device of Zhongtai Chemical are restarting [96] - In November, PTA exports were 360,000 tons, with significant increases in Egypt, Oman, and India [99] - The PTA inventory decreases marginally [114] Position - The long - position holdings of Morgan Qiankun in PTA increase, and foreign - funded seats increase their long - position holdings to 154,000 lots (+40,000 lots) [118][120] MEG Valuation and Profit - The MEG month - spread declines, the basis weakens, and the single - side price trend is weak [132] - The relative valuation continues to decline, and the trend continues until active production cuts [136] - The coal - based device profit is - 217 yuan/ton (+43), and the oil - based device continues to be in a loss pattern [138] Supply and Demand, Inventory - In 2026, many MEG production projects are put into production. The domestic MEG operating rate is 72% (+2%), and the weekly supply is about 400,000 tons [128][144] - In November, MEG imports were 580,000 tons, lower than market expectations. Overseas multiple devices reduce their loads, and imports are expected to decline [146][149] - The MEG port inventory continues to rise [154] Polyester Segment Operating Rate and Inventory - The current polyester operating rate is 89.5%. The production reduction of the three major polyester filament factories is about 2.819 million tons. The polyester load in January is adjusted from 89% to 88%, and is expected to be 84% in February [161] - During the New Year's Day, the sales volume is light, and the inventory is expected to accumulate again. The equity inventory of filament (POY/FDY) is 5 - 10 days [165][171] Export and Profit - From January to November, the total polyester exports were 13.3 million tons, +14.7%. The export growth rates of various polyester products are different [173] - The losses of filament factories expand, while the profitability of staple fiber and bottle chips is acceptable [175] Terminal: Weaving, Textiles and Apparel Operating Rate and Order - The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 60% (-2%), and the texturing machine operating rate is 79% [196] - Domestic orders weaken, and raw material inventory increases. The weaving end has weak new orders, and the坯布 inventory accumulates again [199][201] Retail and Export - From January to November, the retail sales of Chinese textile and apparel were 1.3597 trillion yuan, +3.5% [202] - From January to November, the cumulative export of Chinese textile and apparel was 137.8 billion US dollars, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [208] Overseas Market - The retail data of textile and apparel in the US and Europe show strong growth. The US clothing retail in January - September 2025 was 160.7 billion US dollars, +7.5% [212][214] - The UK clothing retail in January - November was 43.8 billion pounds, +6% [216] - The overseas textile and apparel inventory declines slightly month - on - month [218]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market will generally fluctuate in a bullish manner within the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Price - This week, the closing price of the active contract of US soybeans was 1046 cents per bushel, a decline of 25.75 cents per bushel. The reasons were that China's purchase reached 80% of the commitment with a slower pace, and there was no large - scale drought in South America. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American weather, and biodiesel policy progress [8]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at 295.9 dollars per short - ton, an increase of 11.5 dollars per short - ton. The slowdown in China's purchase due to holidays and reaching 80% of the committed purchase volume raised concerns about subsequent demand [13]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil rebounded slightly, closing at 49.32 cents per pound, an increase of 0.12 cents per pound. The reasons were the stability of the oil market and soybean meal bearing the downward pressure of soybeans [17]. - As of December 26, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was 11.31 dollars per bushel, basically unchanged [20]. - As of December 26, the price of soybeans in Iowa was 9.9 dollars per bushel, a weekly increase of 0.1 [22]. - On January 2, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, dropped by 0.47 to 135.76 reais per bag [24]. - As of January 2, the spot price of soybeans at Brazilian ports dropped by 0.48 to 142.14 reais per bag [26]. 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained flat, with a drought rate of 70% compared to 66% last week [29]. - In Brazil, precipitation in the southern region will be relatively high in the next two weeks, while in the central - western region it will be slightly low. The precipitation in the main producing areas will be slightly low in the next two weeks. In the second week, precipitation in Mato Grosso will be lower year - on - year, in Paraná it will be normal in the second week after being low in the first week, and in Rio Grande do Sul it will be high in the second week [31][36][39]. - In Argentina, precipitation will be low in the next two weeks, and in the next week, it will be low in the central and southern regions [46][48]. - As of the week of December 27, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was 97.9%, approaching the completion of sowing [50]. 3.3 Demand Factors - As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.33 dollars per bushel, down from 2.45 dollars last week [53]. - On December 19, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 919,400 tons, up from 721,200 tons last week [55]. - On December 26, the weekly export inspection volume was 750,300 tons, down from 929,300 tons last week [57]. - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 1,055,600 tons, down from 2,396,000 tons last week (the week of December 19) [59]. - The sales of US soybeans for the next year were 0 tons, the same as last week [61]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China in the week of December 26 was 135,400 tons, down from 386,000 tons last week [63]. 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.026, remaining in the La Nina range [66]. - The cost of soybeans in Brazil is expected to rise next year, and the soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US are expected to increase slightly. The US soybean planting cost continues to rise, while the Brazilian soybean cost has decreased year - on - year [68][70][72]. - As of December 23, the net long position of soybeans was 143,300 lots, down from 179,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 86,100 lots, up from 56,700 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 5,900 lots, compared with a net long position of 5,300 lots last week [74][76][78].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2026 年 01 月 04 日 工业硅：上游减产节奏仍需留意 多晶硅：1 月关注上游减产情形 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面重心上移，现货价格持平；多晶硅盘面区间震荡，现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面重心上移，部分资金炒作工业硅工厂减产挺价，节前收于 8860 元/ 吨。现货市场价格持稳，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8700 元/吨（环比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 8950 元/吨(环 比+100)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，波动放大，节前盘面收于 57920 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场 来看，上游报价坚挺，下游刚需补库，亦有高价签单情况。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存累库；多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅累库。据咨询商统计，本周新疆、内蒙地区开工增加，西南地区开工 减少，整体周产小幅环增。具体而言，西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000- 10500 元/吨，枯水期当地开工目前已降至极低位置。月度来看，12 月份 ...