2025 年 7 月 24 日 锡：佤邦洪灾扰动价格 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 268,540 | 0.01% | #N/A | #N/A | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 34,750 | 2.45% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 69,039 | 5,372 | 15,704 | -1,057 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较 ...

2025 年 07 月 24 日 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 铅：等待供需矛盾发酵，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16850 | -0.30% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2014.5 | -0.02% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 70210 | 35228 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5748 | -594 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 62272 | 20641 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 136798 | 595 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -40 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -25.4 | 0.57 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 2510 contract and hold reverse spreads for 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 [1][8][12]. - The freight rates in early August showed signs of reaching a peak. Attention should be paid to how other shipping companies respond after Maersk and ONE reduced their prices [9]. - It is necessary to observe whether the inflection point of market cargo volume appears in mid - August and the subsequent decline rate [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On July 24, 2025, the EC2508 contract closed at 2,239.7 points, down 1.60%; the EC2510 contract closed at 1,537.0 points, down 2.72%; the EC2512 contract closed at 1,701.8 points, down 1.55% [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 2,400.50 points, down 0.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,301.81 points, up 2.8% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $2,079/TEU, down 1.0% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $2,142/FEU, down 2.4% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In early August, the freight rates of different alliances showed different trends. The static average quote in week 32 was around $3,400/FEU [9]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.36, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 27.17 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - **Weekly Shipping Capacity from China to Europe**: The weekly shipping capacity showed certain fluctuations. The shipping capacity in July - September 2025 was also presented in the table, with the shipping capacity in some periods being 30.0, 27.5, 30.5, etc. (in 10,000 TEU) [7]. - **Monthly Average Weekly Shipping Capacity from China to Europe**: The monthly average weekly shipping capacity from China to Europe in 2024 and 2025 was presented in a chart, showing different levels in different months [6]. 3.3 Macro News - He Lifeng will go to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27th to 30th [3]. - The US has various tariff - related situations with the EU, and the two sides have different stances on tariffs [3]. - US President Trump said that the US and the EU reached an agreement on military aid to Ukraine [3]. 3.4 Forecast for Contracts - **2508 Contract**: In a pessimistic scenario, the 32 - week SCFIS index may fall to between 2,200 - 2,250 points, and the 08 - contract delivery settlement price may be between 2,050 - 2,150 points. In an optimistic scenario, the 32 - week SCFIS index may remain between 2,300 - 2,350 points, and the 08 - contract delivery settlement price may be between 2,150 - 2,250 points [11]. - **2510 Contract**: October is the traditional off - season for the European Line. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach at high prices. Short positions in the 10 - contract should be reduced and observed, and the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads should be held [12].

Report Overview - **Date**: July 24, 2025 - **Publisher**: Guotai Junan Futures - **Subject**: Agricultural Commodity Research Morning Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Boosted by macro factors, but beware of sentiment reversal [2][4] - **Soybean Oil**: Monitor Sino-US trade progress, relatively weak among varieties [2][4] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by concerns over substitution, the futures market is adjusting downward [2][9] - **Soybean No. 1**: Adjusting downward following the soybean market [2][9] - **Corn**: Focus on the spot market [2][12] - **Sugar**: Monitor the sugarcane crushing progress in Brazil [2][17] - **Cotton**: Fluctuating with the sentiment of the commodity market [2][22] - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives early, and the sentiment for culling hens declines [2][29] - **Hogs**: Strong macro sentiment, waiting for end - of - month confirmation [2][31] - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [2][35] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil futures prices showed fluctuations, with the day - session closing price at 8,994 yuan/ton (up 0.76%) and the night - session at 8,952 yuan/ton (down 0.47%). Spot prices remained stable, and the basis in Guangdong was 6 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: Indonesia's May palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons, and exports soared. Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the previous month [5][6]. Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The day - session closing price of soybean oil futures was 8,074 yuan/ton (down 0.02%), and the night - session was 8,062 yuan/ton (down 0.15%). Spot prices in Guangdong dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was 186 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade progress, which will affect the price trend of soybean oil [2][4]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - **Fundamentals**: For DCE soybean meal 2509, the day - session closing price was 3,095 yuan/ton (up 0.62%), and the night - session was 3,041 yuan/ton (down 1.78%). For DCE soybean No. 1 2509, the day - session was 4,217 yuan/ton (up 0.09%), and the night - session was 4,193 yuan/ton (down 0.85%). Spot prices in different regions had various changes, and the trading volume and inventory of soybean meal also changed [9]. - **News**: On July 23, CBOT soybean futures fell due to good weather in the Midwest and news that China may reduce soybean meal consumption [9][11]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: Corn futures prices declined slightly. The day - session closing price of C2509 was 2,321 yuan/ton (down 0.17%), and the night - session was 2,315 yuan/ton (down 0.26%). Spot prices in different regions had different trends [12]. - **News**: The northern corn collection and port prices remained stable, while the container collection prices decreased slightly. The prices in the northeast and north China had different changes [13]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.18 cents/pound (down 0.08%), the mainstream spot price was 6,040 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures主力 price was 5,834 yuan/ton (up 11). The basis was 206 yuan/ton (down 11) [17]. - **News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern sugarcane crushing progress was slow, but the MIX increased significantly year - on - year. Different institutions had different forecasts for the global and domestic sugar supply and demand situation [17][18][19]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: Cotton futures prices declined slightly. The day - session closing price of CF2509 was 14,180 yuan/ton (down 0.32%), and the night - session was 14,140 yuan/ton (down 0.28%). Spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [22]. - **News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was light, the cotton yarn market trading was weak, and the ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly [23][24]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg futures prices rose. The closing price of egg 2508 was 3,613 yuan/500 kg (up 1.03%), and that of egg 2510 was 3,403 yuan/500 kg (up 0.18%). Spot prices in different regions increased [29]. - **News**: The peak season for eggs arrives early, and the sentiment for culling hens declines [2][29]. Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices in different regions declined, while the futures price of LH2509 was 14,590 yuan/ton (up 210). The trading volume and open interest of different contracts increased [31][34]. - **News**: Currently in the off - season for consumption, the spot price is weak. The macro sentiment is strong, but the premium on the futures market has increased. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of LH2509 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Peanut futures prices showed different trends. The closing price of PK510 was 8,142 yuan/ton (up 0.02%), and that of PK511 was 7,972 yuan/ton (down 0.33%). Spot prices remained stable, and the basis in different regions was positive [35]. - **News**: The raw material procurement in different regions has basically ended, and the market is mainly trading inventory. The new peanut drought has been slightly alleviated [36].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][5] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][12] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][12] - Coke: Bullish after the second price increase, with a trend strength of 1 [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish due to supply policy constraints, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16] - Steam coal: Stabilizing with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][20] - Logs: Fluctuating with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][24] Core Views - The report provides daily investment outlooks and trend strengths for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. Analyses are based on fundamental data, macro and industry news [2][4][7] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Movement**: Futures closed at 812 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-1.34%); import and most domestic ore spot prices declined [5] - **Macro & Industry News**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Price Movement**: RB2510 closed at 3,274 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.31%); HC2510 closed at 3,438 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [8] - **Macro & Industry News**: In June, total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, up 5.4% year - on - year. A new round of ten key industries' stable growth work plans will be released soon. Weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products [9][10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Movement**: Futures prices of both declined, while spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased [12] - **Macro & Industry News**: On July 23, prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions increased. Some changes in production and procurement of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese occurred [13][14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Movement**: JM2509 closed at 1,135.5 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton (8.30%); J2509 closed at 1,707.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.59%) [16] - **Price & Position**: Northern port coking coal quotes and CCI metallurgical coal index showed price changes. On July 23, there were changes in long and short positions of JM2509 and J2509 contracts [16][17][18] Steam Coal - **Price Movement**: ZC2507 had no trading on the previous day, previous opening was 931.6 yuan/ton, closing at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21] - **Fundamentals**: Southern port and domestic origin quotes of steam coal were provided. On July 23, there were no changes in long and short positions of ZC2507 [22] Logs - **Price Movement**: There were declines in closing prices of 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts, with fluctuations in trading volume and open interest [25] - **Macro & Industry News**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [27]

【行业新闻】 业 服 务 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,875 | 12,100 | -225 3695 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 125,082 | 121,387 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 48,591 | 49,351 | -760 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 750,681 | 730,033 | 20647 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 125 | -100 | 225 | | | 月差 | BR08-BR09 | | 35 | 15 | 20 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,700 | 11,800 | -100 | | | | 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,750 | 11,800 | ...

2025 年 7 月 24 日 | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 69,380 | -3,500 | 2,960 | 4,980 | 10,260 | -2,180 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 1,334,159 | 215,933 | 856,045 | 984,034 | 1,074,672 | 1,330,037 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 362,054 | -49,584 | 21,436 | 35,159 | 5,100 | 338,929 | | | 盘面 | 2511合约（收盘价） | 68,620 | -3,180 | 2,780 | 4,540 | 9,820 | -3,220 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 241,623 | 96,022 | 189,075 | 211,042 | 209,167 | 241,338 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 132,094 | 12,267 | 24,068 | 37,73 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, price, profit, inventory, and raw material costs. It also mentions relevant macro and industry news, and provides trend intensity indicators for industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For industrial silicon, Si2509's closing price was 9,525 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan compared to T - 1. Its trading volume was 1,681,997 lots, and the open interest was 334,776 lots. For polysilicon, PS2509's closing price was 50,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 975 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 1,246,241 lots and an open interest of 165,641 lots [2]. - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 10,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan from T - 1. The price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10,300 yuan/ton, also up 300 yuan. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 1,676 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan from T - 1. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186 yuan from T - 1. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 18.1 yuan/kg, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.7 million tons, with a decrease of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 5. The enterprise inventory of industrial silicon (sample enterprises) was 17.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons compared to T - 5. The industry inventory (social + enterprise inventory) was 72.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.50 million tons compared to T - 5. The futures warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 25.1 million tons, unchanged from T - 1. The manufacturer inventory of polysilicon was 24.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 5. The price of silicon ore in Yunnan was 320 yuan/ton, also unchanged compared to T - 5. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 5 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On July 21st, the Guizhou Energy Bureau issued the "Guizhou Province Power Demand Response Trading Scheme", which clarifies market participants, trading varieties, and price mechanisms. Market participants include industrial and commercial adjustable loads, energy storage, virtual power plants, and electric vehicle charging facilities, etc. [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

Report Overview - Date: July 24, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro sentiment dominates the margin, while fundamentals determine elasticity [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the trend may fluctuate widely [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the upstream resumption of production progress [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: An industry meeting is held, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 123,370 yuan, down 160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,900 yuan, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and other indicators also showed corresponding changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel iron project entered the trial - production stage; some nickel smelters in Indonesia resumed production, and a cold - rolling mill planned to stop for maintenance [4][5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,380 yuan, down 3,500 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators. The price of raw materials such as lithium spodumene concentrate also changed [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; the EU plans to ban non - electric vehicle purchases for rental companies and large enterprises from 2030 [10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,525 yuan, down 130 yuan; the closing price of the PS2509 contract was 50,080 yuan, up 975 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Guizhou Energy Bureau issued a power demand response trading plan [14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [15]

贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6860 | 4784 | 4436 | 6432 | 503.7 | | 涨跌 | 6886 | -10 | -11 | -38 | -0.6 | | 涨跌幅 | -26 | -0.21% | -0.25% | -0.59% | -0.12% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | 昨日收盘价 | 84 | 4 | 0 | -10 | 16.7 | | 前日收盘价 | 96 | 10 | -6 | 8 | 10.4 | | 涨跌 | -12 | -6 | 6 | -18 | 6.3 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | | 金/吨） | | | | 金/桶) | ...