1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, mainly due to the increment brought by the rising volatility of the agricultural products sector. Meanwhile, the trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased along with the decline of implied volatility. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a relatively low level recently, and buying options for price reversal trading can be considered [5]. - The options of contracts such as soybean meal, corn, starch, iron ore, liquefied gas, polypropylene, PVC, plastic, palm oil, soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean oil, styrene, ethylene glycol, eggs, live pigs, and log 509 are about to expire. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks when changing contracts [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, mainly due to the increment from the agricultural products sector. The trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased, and their implied volatility also declined. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a recent low [5]. - The options of certain contracts are about to expire, and attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the overall market this week was 8,808,344.8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. The open interest was 8,996,228, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%. Among them, the trading volume of the agricultural products sector increased by 2.45%, that of the energy and chemical sector increased by 0.17%, that of the black sector increased by 0.4%, and that of the precious metals sector increased by 1.26%. The trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased by 1.82%. The open interest of the agricultural products sector decreased by 0.1%, that of the energy and chemical sector decreased by 0.55%, that of the black sector decreased by 0.19%, and that of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors increased by 0.41% [6]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.55 Various Option Market Data - For each type of option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), detailed data on trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, at - the - money volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew are provided, including data for this week, last week, and their changes [12 - 44]. 3.3 Chart Analysis No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the monthly perspective, September is likely to see a double - decline in supply and demand. The decline in September's capacity compared to August has widened to 6.2%, but it is still significantly smaller than the decline in the same period in 2024. The current decline in capacity may be less than the decline in demand, and the fundamentals are expected to face further pressure. - Strategically, it is advisable to hold short positions for the October contract as appropriate and add short positions at high prices. The upper pressure level is referred to as 1400 - 1500 points. For the 2512 contract, in terms of unilateral valuation, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. It is recommended to focus on the opportunities to expand the spreads of the 10 - 12 reverse spread and the 12 - 04 positive spread in the medium to long term. [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - In the past week, August's capacity was revised down from 325,000 to 314,000 TEU/week. In week 34, there were 3 new blank sailings, and the capacity in week 34 was revised down from 342,000 to 309,000 TEU. - In September, the number of undetermined sailings increased by 1 to 2, and the number of blank sailings increased by 1 to 6. The average weekly capacity was revised down from 308,000 to 294,000 TEU/week. The decline in September's capacity compared to August widened to 6.2%, but it was still significantly lower than the decline in the same period in 2024. - In October, there are 6 undetermined sailings and 4 blank sailings. Excluding undetermined sailings, the average weekly capacity is 289,000 TEU/week, but its reference value is currently limited. [4][5][61] 3.2 Demand - Since week 32, the decline in freight rates has led to an increase in the willingness of downstream customers to hold goods and wait. Since week 34 (the third week of August), the booking rate has slowed down significantly month - on - month, and the cargo - collecting pressure of some shipping companies with extra sailings has increased. [5] 3.3 Price - The average FAK in week 34 (the third week of August) was about $2,750/FEU, and it is expected that the average FAK in week 35 (the last week of August) will be around $2,500/FEU. From the supply - demand pattern, the downward trend of freight rates in September remains unchanged. - The SCFIS European Line Index on August 11 was 2,235.48 points, and it is subjectively expected to be around 2,050 points on August 17. [6][16] 3.4 Historical Freight (Monthly) - It shows the freight rates from 2009 - 2024 and the month - on - month and year - on - year changes between different months, such as the comparison between June and February, December and April, etc. [11] 3.5 Global Main Route Freight Seasonal Trends - It presents the seasonal trends of freight rates on major global routes through the SCFI and NCFI, including routes to Europe, the Mediterranean, North America, South America, etc. [23][25] 3.6 Demand - Side Analysis - In July, the total volume of US imported containers was 2,732,039 TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 5.8% and a month - on - month increase of 14.7%. The import volume from different countries and regions showed different trends. - In June, China's export decline to the US narrowed, and exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Japan maintained resilience. [35][36] 3.7 Supply - Side Analysis - In terms of ship schedules, there have been changes in capacity from August to October, including new blank sailings and changes in undetermined sailings. - Regarding dynamic capacity, the speed of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container fleets has fluctuated upwards, and the number of idle 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000+ TEU container fleets has increased. - In terms of static capacity, in August, the top ten liner companies received 3 new 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, all from the OA Alliance and deployed on the US routes. There were no new 17,000+ TEU ships delivered in August. [61][65][91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the supply at the uppermost end has marginally eased and there is some coking coal inventory accumulation in certain segments, the overall fundamental level of coking coal remains moderately tight. Coupled with the upward - repaired profit of coke, the relatively high output of downstream hot metal, and the relatively high - pitched macro - level expectations, the short - term deep decline space for coal - coke prices is limited [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal - Coke Weekly Outlook 3.1.1 Supply - The marginal decline in upstream raw coal production has narrowed. Fenwei's raw coal production decreased by 2310 tons week - on - week to 8.5664 million tons. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, the traffic volume at the three major ports remains at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [3] 3.1.2 Demand - The downstream and speculative sectors continue to adopt a cautious attitude. This week, the online auction failure rate has further increased, and the quotes of some high - priced resources have been successively lowered. However, the hot metal output still remains at a relatively high level, and the coking profit has been repaired after six rounds of price increases [4] 3.1.3 Macro - News of additional anti - dumping duties on steel products (from Japan and South Korea) and tariffs (from the United States on steel and aluminum) has impacted the future downstream export demand expectations [5] 3.2 Coal - Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 8.5664 million tons (- 2310 tons); independent coking plants' daily average 65,380 tons (+ 280 tons); FW clean coal 439,360 tons (+ 350 tons); steel mill coking plants' daily average 46,730 tons (- 70 tons) | | | Demand | Hot metal output 240,660 tons (+ 340 tons) | Hot metal output 240,660 tons (+ 340 tons) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 301,000 tons; mine raw coal - 64,000 tons; mine clean coal + 120,000 tons; independent coking - 72,000 tons; independent coking - 110,000 tons; steel mills - 95,000 tons; steel mill coking - 29,000 tons; ports - 30,000 tons; ports - 219,000 tons; FW ports - 69,000 tons | | | Profit | Commodity coal 433 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton); coking enterprise average profit 20 yuan/ton (+ 36 yuan/ton) | | | Warehouse Receipt | Zhongyang Gengyang 1308; Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1191 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1557 | [8] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Coking Coal Supply - **Weekly**: The output data of FW raw coal, 523 sample mines' daily average clean coal output, and FW clean coal output are presented, showing their trends from 2022 to 2025 [11][12][14] - **Monthly**: The monthly output data of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal from 2019 to 2025 are presented [16] - **Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance**: The customs clearance volume data of Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports, as well as the total customs clearance volume of the three major ports from 2021 to 2025 are presented [18][20][21][23] 3.3.2 Coking Coal Inventory - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines decreased by 1690 tons week - on - week to 187,180 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 150 tons week - on - week to 111,890 tons [29] - **Ports**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 255,490 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 218,500 tons [31] - **Coking Plants**: The inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants are presented, including overall data and data by region and capacity [34][36][38] - **Steel Mills**: The inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their coking plants are presented, including overall data and data by region [39] 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Coke Supply - **Capacity Utilization** - **Coking Plants**: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking plants, including overall data, data by capacity, and data by region, are presented [42] - **Steel Mills**: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants from 2019 to 2025 is presented [44] - **Output** - **Coking Plants**: The daily output data of 230 independent coking plants and all - sample independent coking enterprises from 2019 to 2025 are presented [46] - **Steel Mills**: The daily output data of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants from 2019 to 2025 are presented [48] 3.4.2 Coke Inventory - **Coking Plants**: The inventory data of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants from 2019 to 2025 are presented [50] - **Steel Mills**: The inventory, average available days, and inventory by region of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants are presented [51][53][54] - **All - sample Aggregation**: The total coke inventory data from 2019 to 2025 are presented [56] 3.4.3 Coke Demand - The hot metal daily output data of 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the coke supply - demand difference [58] 3.4.4 Coke Profit - The data of coking plant's ton - coke average profit, ton - coke futures (main - continuous contract) profit, and the prices of some types of metallurgical coke are presented [61][62] 3.5 Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.5.1 Coking Coal Futures - The futures market data of coking coal 2509 and 2601 contracts from August 11 - 15, 2025, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented [65] 3.5.2 Coke Futures - The futures market data of coke 2509 and 2601 contracts from August 11 - 15, 2025, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented [67] 3.5.3 Coal - Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 are presented [71] 3.5.4 Coal - Coke Spot - The spot prices of some types of coking coal and metallurgical coke are presented [74] 3.5.5 Coal - Coke Basis - As of August 15, the basis of Mongolian coking coal is - 39 yuan/ton, and the basis of coke is - 172.5 yuan/ton [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large number of upstream factories resume production, the disk trend follows coking coal futures, but the fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high positions and take profits at low positions in the short - term, and not hold positions for a long time. The expected disk range next week is 8500 - 9100 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon factories are recommended to conduct selling hedging [6][8]. - For polysilicon, with more event disturbances next week, the idea is mainly to go long on dips. The expected disk range next week is 50000 - 60000 yuan/ton. After digesting the negative impact of the second batch of registered brands this week, it is recommended to take profits on the inter - period positive spread of PS2511 and PS2512 opportunistically, and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea. Polysilicon downstream wafer factories are recommended to conduct buying hedging [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The disk showed a volatile trend, and the spot price increased. It closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was reported at 8700 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 150), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was reported at 9000 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 100) [2]. - Polysilicon: The disk had a wide - range shock and was generally strong. It closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday. There was partial spot trading in the downstream, but the transaction price did not show obvious improvement [2]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The start - up in the southwest region continued to rise, and some factories in Xinjiang resumed production but at a slow pace. The inventory of futures warrants decreased compared with last week, with a warrant inventory increase of 0.1 million tons this week. The social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - Demand side: The short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production of polysilicon increased, and the weekly production of organic silicon also increased. The aluminum alloy had rigid demand orders, and the export market was inactive [4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output remained high. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang reduced production. The polysilicon production schedule in August is expected to reach 130,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased [4]. - Demand side: After a brief repair of wafer profits, the output increased. The short - term wafer inventory was relatively low, and some wafer factories increased production. The price increase of some wafers and battery cells was accepted, but there was no information on the price increase and transaction of components [5]. Market Data Charts - The report provides a series of charts, including the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and warehouse transaction prices of industrial silicon, domestic industrial silicon social inventory, factory inventory, monthly start - up rate, monthly output, profit calculation, export and import volume, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio, prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, polysilicon spot price, production and year - on - year change, industry start - up rate, import and export volume, industry profit calculation, single - crystal wafer export volume, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity, domestic DMC average price trend, industry monthly start - up rate, production and monthly year - on - year change, factory inventory, export volume of primary - form polysiloxane, industry profit calculation, price seasonality of recycled aluminum ADC12, industry monthly start - up rate, average profit calculation, and domestic automobile monthly sales seasonality [9][11][12][15][18][22][23][24][27]

1. Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week's pulp outlook is slightly bullish. International pulp mills' production cuts and product conversions support the current pulp prices from falling, and the increase in foreign market prices further boosts market sentiment. However, the demand market is currently slow to follow up. Whether pulp prices can continue to rise or surge significantly depends on the shipment status and production fluctuations in the demand-side base paper market. Additionally, macro - policy stimuli can also affect the price fluctuations of pulp futures. It is recommended to monitor port inventory levels and base paper demand [75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of August 14, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 536,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons or 10.5%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1.375 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 0.7%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 18.0%. The total inventory of major sample ports was 2.099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons or 2.5% [6]. - Brazil's Suzano announced a reduction of nearly 500,000 tons in commodity pulp production over the next 12 months, equivalent to about 1% of the global demand for 40 million tons of hardwood pulp [6]. - China's pulp imports in July 2025 were 2.877 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The cumulative imports for the year were 21.455 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.5% [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the basis for coniferous pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 544 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93% but a year - on - year increase of 29.52%. The basis for Russian Needle was - 6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 110.34% and a year - on - year increase of 80.00%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.70% and a year - on - year increase of 22.22% [12]. - As of August 15, 2025, the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 220 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.84%. The 01 - 05 month - spread was 30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36.36% [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp decreased. As of August 15, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.78% but a year - on - year increase of 57.14%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 83.33% [24]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp improved. As of August 15, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 36.74 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a year - on - year increase of 81.82%. The import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was 87.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 769.10% and a year - on - year increase of 123.39% [28]. - The price of coniferous pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Pine, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, 6,150 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, and 5,300 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Russian Needle increased by 1.53% month - on - month [29]. - The price of broad - leaf pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Birdie, and Broadleaf were 4,200 yuan/ton, 4,200 yuan/ton, 4,150 yuan/ton, and 4,150 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases ranging from 2.44% to 2.94% [36]. - The price of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 4,900 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged month - on - month [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - In June 2025, European port pulp inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while global pulp shipments in May increased month - on - month [41]. - In June 2025, the performance of pulp imports continued to diverge. Coniferous pulp imports decreased by 6.07% month - on - month, while broad - leaf pulp imports increased by 10.96% month - on - month [45]. 3.3.3 Demand - The capacity utilization rates of some finished paper products showed an upward trend. As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 72.58%, 63.50%, 56.27%, and 57.18% respectively [49]. - The prices of finished paper products were generally weak. As of August 15, 2025, the average prices of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper decreased to varying degrees month - on - month [50]. - The profits of finished paper products weakened [61]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 235,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.02%. The warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory warehouse) was 19,200 tons, remaining unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 42.05% [66]. - Overall, port inventory was at a medium level for the year, and the inventory of major domestic ports showed an upward trend this period. Qingdao Port's inventory decreased, while Changshu Port's inventory increased [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium price is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend for about a month due to supply disturbances and potential demand growth. If downstream demand strengthens in September, lithium prices are likely to continue rising [3]. - The price of the futures main contract is expected to range between 85,000 and 95,000 yuan per ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Price Trends - The prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2511 contract closed at 86,900 yuan/ton, up 9,940 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 10,800 yuan/ton to 82,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The SMM spot-futures basis (2509 contract) rose 520 yuan/ton to -4,220 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was -310 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton week-on-week. The 2509 - 2511 contract spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: After Yichun Times stopped mining, the lithium carbonate price strengthened. There are concerns about long - term production halts in smelting enterprises after using up equity and inventory ores. In Qinghai, mining license renewals and potential over - production issues may lead to production uncertainties in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Demand**: In August, the downstream production schedule demand is expected to improve significantly. The production schedule of cathode materials shows an 8.8% month - on - month increase for iron - lithium and a 9.2% increase for ternary materials. This week, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 216,000 units, down 11.84% week - on - week but up 0.93% year - on - year, with the growth rate significantly narrowing [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with the inventory at 142,000 tons, down 162 tons week - on - week. The number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 23,500 tons [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - **Outlook**: Due to the time needed for maritime replenishment of ore exports, lithium prices will likely remain strong for about a month. If downstream demand strengthens in September, a supply - to - demand procurement concern will form, and lithium prices are expected to stay strong [3]. - **Single - sided Trading**: The futures main contract price is expected to range from 85,000 to 95,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - period Trading**: In the short term, due to supply shortages, a positive spread arbitrage is recommended. In the long term, with a negative long - term contract basis and an expected increase in warehouse receipts, a reverse spread arbitrage is suitable [5]. - **Hedging**: As prices are expected to rise, upstream enterprises are advised to set prices for sales and not to sell for hedging. Downstream enterprises are not advised to buy for hedging because the spot price is significantly lower than the futures price [5].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week (8.11 - 8.17), the spot market for live pigs saw prices fluctuating. The futures market showed weak fluctuations. Next week (8.18 - 8.24), the spot price of live pigs is expected to run weakly, and may hit a new low this year. The price of the LH2509 futures contract will gradually return to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March contract [1][2][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review (8.11 - 8.17) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs fluctuated. The 20KG piglet price in Henan was 33.1 yuan/kg (last week: 35.1 yuan/kg), the live pig price in Henan was 13.88 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), and the national 50KG binary sow price was 1611 yuan/head (last week: 1614 yuan/head). The supply was relatively loose, and the demand led to an increase in slaughter volume. The average slaughter weight was 124.03KG, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% [1] - **Futures Market**: The price of the live pig futures LH2509 contract showed weak fluctuations, with a high of 14030 yuan/ton, a low of 13800 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13825 yuan/ton (last week: 13930 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 55 yuan/ton (last week: - 50 yuan/ton) [2] 2. Next Week's Market Outlook (8.18 - 8.24) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will run weakly. The supply pressure in the second half of August is large, and the demand increment is limited. The spot price may hit a new low this year [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract will gradually return to the industrial logic, and the basis will gradually turn to a contango delivery structure. Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March contract. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week's basis was 55 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was - 120 yuan/ton [9] - **Supply**: This week's average weight was 124.03KG (last week: 124.04KG). In June, the pork production was 529.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%; the pork import was 8.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View Glass - The medium - term adjustment may not be over, and the market still faces pressure. The previous policy proposals and peak - season expectations triggered a rebound, but factors such as weak basis, delivery, and high inventory have led to a market decline. The forward 01 contract has a large premium, causing short - term disturbances, but the market remains under pressure before the delivery pressure ends [2]. 纯碱 - The short - term trend is weak and volatile, and the downward pressure persists. The previous overcrowded short positions in the futures market led to a short - squeeze rally. The strengthening basis during the short - term decline is unfavorable for futures prices. The supply side is not actively reducing production, and the market is under pressure [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - As of August 14, 2025, there are 296 glass production lines in China (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass is 159,600 tons, unchanged from July 7th. The daily loss of float glass is 40,450 tons, and the weekly loss is 283,150 tons, both unchanged from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting capacity of cold - repaired lines is 11,680 tons/day, the total daily melting capacity of ignited lines is 12,110 tons/day, the potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,000 tons/day, the potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting capacity of 8,630 tons, and the potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [10][11][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day. Short - term production reduction space is limited, but there may be a certain - scale production cut in the fourth quarter if demand is poor in the third quarter [17][18]. Demand - The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days, a 2.7% increase from the previous period and a 1.55% decrease year - on - year. The deep - processing orders in the southern region have not improved significantly, and the deep - processing profit is still low. Attention should be paid to the phased restrictions on deep - processing operations in some northern regions [2]. Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 63.426 million heavy cases, a 2.55% increase from the previous period and a 5.94% decrease year - on - year. The inventory days are 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period. The overall sales rate in North China has increased, but the inventory has increased. In Central China, the downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, and the inventory has continued to rise [2]. Price and Profit - The market price has slightly declined this week, with a slower decline rate. The price in Shahe is around 1,140 - 1,180 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton), in Central China's Hubei region it is 1,040 - 1,140 yuan/ton (down 40 - 80 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, some large manufacturers' prices are 1,240 - 1,280 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [24][28]. - The spot market is weaker recently, the basis has slightly weakened, and the inter - month spread is weak. The profit from petroleum coke is about 87 yuan/ton, and the profits from natural gas and coal fuels are about - 171 and 92 yuan/ton respectively [30][33]. Strategy - Single - side: Weak and volatile, with upper pressure at 1,100 - 1,150 and lower support at 1,000 - 1,030. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Short - term, buy soda ash and sell glass [2]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market has good transactions, and the price is oscillating strongly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 18.5 - 19 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous period [51][53]. Capacity and Inventory - Recently, supply has been reduced, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. There are 408 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day, unchanged from the previous week and a 16.71% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory days are about 25.32 days, a 5.98% decrease from the previous period, with a narrowing decline rate [54][55][59]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed operation, and the operating rate has increased. This week, the domestic soda ash production is 761,300 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate is 87.2%, up from 85.4% last week. Some plants are under maintenance or have reduced production loads, and some have plans for future maintenance [3][64][66]. Inventory - The inventory is about 1.894 million tons. The light soda ash inventory is 760,000 tons, an increase of 42,400 tons from the previous week, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 1.1338 million tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [4][68]. Price and Profit - Market quotes have been lowered, and the reduction by traders is greater than that by manufacturers. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1,280 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The profit from the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 9 yuan/ton, and the profit from the ammonia - alkali method in North China is 34.4 yuan/ton [78][80][84]. Strategy - Single - side: Weak and volatile, with upper pressure at 1,300 - 1,330 and lower support at 1,180 - 1,200. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Short - term, buy soda ash and sell glass [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: August 17, 2025 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views LPG Section - Short - term valuation is reasonable, and the market will move in a range. Domestic civil gas supply and demand remain loose, with prices showing weak and narrow fluctuations. Ether - post C4 prices are in an upward - trending pattern. In the next week, civil demand will remain seasonally weak, and the short - term boost to the overall chemical end's operating rate is limited [3]. Propylene Section - Supply and demand are tightening, and prices have certain support. Although the supply will increase after the restart of some devices, there is still a large supply - demand gap in Shandong in August and September, and price support is expected to remain [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Part - Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices: Except for Shandong domestic gas, the price centers have all been adjusted upwards. For example, the prices of East China and South China civil gas and imported gas have increased to varying degrees [7][10]. - Regional quotes, discounts, and freight: The Panama Canal has slow passage, resulting in high freight rates; FEI discounts have narrowed; the arbitrage window from the US Gulf to the Far East has improved compared to last week [19]. - Propane prices: Some propane price indices have changed, such as the AFEI index increasing by 2.39% to 524.00 USD/t [32]. LPG Part - Supply - US propane shipments: Shipments to Japan and South Korea have significantly decreased on a week - on - week basis. Shipments to China this week are 50,000 tons, and Kpler statistics show that next week's shipments will increase significantly [3][45]. - Canadian propane shipments: There is no significant change in shipments [46]. - Middle East LPG shipments: Overall shipments have decreased compared to last week, and shipments to India have declined from a high level, while shipments to China have decreased [47][53]. - Imports of China, India, Japan, and South Korea: India's imports have increased, while China's imports have declined [60]. - LPG commodity volume: The total commodity volume is 521,000 tons (-1.6%), of which the civil gas commodity volume is 216,000 tons (-0.6%) [3][61]. - Propane commodity volume: China's propane supply this week is 62,690 tons, a 10.35% week - on - week increase. Domestic refinery commodity volume has decreased by 2.66%, and the international ship arrival volume is 583,000 tons [75]. LPG Part - Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate has increased, while MTBE operating rate has decreased for 3 consecutive weeks after 8 consecutive weeks of increase [78]. - LPG domestic refinery inventory: The week - on - week change is small [82]. - LPG terminal imported cargo inventory: Shandong and South China (excluding Fujian) have accumulated inventory, while other regions have reduced inventory [96]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - Propylene industry chain operating rate: The overall operating rate of the industry has changed slightly. For example, the operating rate of PDH has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 76.33% [107]. - Propylene industry chain prices: Upstream prices such as Brent and WTI have slightly decreased; propylene prices in different regions have different trends, with Shandong prices first rising and then falling, and East China prices rising slightly [110]. - Propylene industry chain profits: Some profit indicators have changed, such as MTO profit increasing by 75 yuan/ton to - 304 yuan/ton [4]. Propylene Part - Balance Sheet - Propylene national balance sheet - Supply: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene supply is expected to be 524,000 tons, with a 4.01% increase in the weighted operating rate [129]. - Propylene national balance sheet - Demand: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene demand is 524,000 tons, with a - 0.22% change in the weighted operating rate [130].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Rebar & Hot-Rolled Coil [1] Report Date - August 17, 2025 [2] Analyst Information - Senior Analyst: Li Yafei [2] - Investment Consultation Number: Z0021184 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment has eased, and steel prices are oscillating [3] Logic Summary Market Sentiment - The coking coal exchange has imposed position limits again, and the Economic Daily has published an article stating that anti-involution will not drive up general prices, leading to a缓和 in market sentiment [5] Macroeconomic Factors - **Overseas**: US PPI has soared by 3.3% year-on-year, with the month-on-month increase reaching a two-year high, indicating increased producer pressure. The expectation of an unexpected interest rate cut in September has been revised [5][9] - **Domestic**: The anti-involution trading has cooled off. The Politburo meeting on July 30 removed the word "low-price" from "low-price disorderly competition" compared to the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting on July 1. The statement "promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity" has been changed to "promote capacity management in key industries", emphasizing the optimization of market competition order and the regulation of corporate disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations [5][8] Black Industry Chain - Steel demand remains stable during the off-season, with decent profits and low inventories. The daily consumption of scrap steel has rebounded, while the decline in hot metal production is slow, resulting in an ineffective negative feedback transmission [5][11] Section Summaries Rebar Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3320 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3188 (-25) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 132 (+5) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -81 (-8) yuan/ton [14] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low. Additionally, demand is in the off-season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [17][20][21] - **Inventory and Production**: High profits have stimulated steel mills to resume production, leading to an accumulation of steel inventories. The production of long and short process rebar and their corresponding inventories are also presented [23][24] - **Production Profit**: The expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 226 (-63) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 207 (-42) yuan/ton. The valley electricity profit of East China rebar was 126 (-54) yuan/ton [29][33] Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3460 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3439 (+11) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 21 (-1) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was 7 (+8) yuan/ton [35] - **Demand**: Demand has weakened month-on-month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off-season. The internal and external price spread has converged, closing the export window [36][39][40] - **Inventory and Production**: Speculative demand has declined, leading to a faster accumulation of hot-rolled coil inventories. Production has also decreased [42][44] - **Production Profit**: Similar to rebar, the expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the hot-rolled coil spot profit was 200 (-31) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 308 (-6) yuan/ton [46][48] Variety Spread Structure - Opportunities for the expansion of the cold-hot spread and the medium plate - hot-rolled coil spread are worth noting [49] Variety Regional Difference - The regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil are presented [58][59][60] Cold Rolled Coil and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium plate are provided [62][63]