Group 1: Overall Viewpoints - The weekly view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is to short at high levels for the 10th contract and hold the reverse spread between the 10th and 12th contracts [1][4] - In the monthly perspective, September is likely to see a double - decline in supply and demand, with the expected decline in demand exceeding that in supply, putting further pressure on the fundamentals [5] Group 2: Supply Analysis - In the past week, the number of blank sailings in August increased by 1, but due to MSC's practice of replacing small ships with large ones, the overall market capacity remained stable at around 321,000 TEU/week [4][59] - In September, the number of blank sailings remained at 2, and the number of pending voyages decreased from 7 to 4. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity in September was revised up from 299,000 to 314,000 TEU/week, slightly lower than August but higher than July [4] Group 3: Demand Analysis - It is expected that the cargo volume in the first half of August (weeks 31 and 32) will remain resilient, and Christmas orders are likely to be shipped by the first half of August. The inflection point of market cargo volume is likely to occur in the second half of August [4] - In June, China's exports to the US showed a narrowing decline, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Japan maintained resilience [36] Group 4: Price Analysis - For the 2508 contract, the average FAK in weeks 30 and 31 was around $3,350 - $3,400/FEU, corresponding to an SCFIS index of 2,300 - 2,350 points. In week 32, different shipping companies had different price adjustment plans [6] - The market average of spot freight rates and the SCFIS index had certain fluctuations in the recent period, with specific changes in each week's data [13][14] Group 5: Historical Data - The report presents historical freight rate data (monthly) with detailed comparisons of year - on - year and month - on - month changes between different months and years [9] - It also shows the historical monthly spread data between different contract months [10] Group 6: Trade Volume Data - Data on US imports by major countries are provided, including year - on - year and month - on - month changes in June [34] - Asian export trade volume data to Europe, North America, and other regions are presented, with specific volume and change data for different months [40][44]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年07月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期回调，中期震荡 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：短期回调，中期震荡 | 供应 | • | 周内中国甲醇产量增加，恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损失量。数据方面，本期甲醇产量1898825吨，较上周增加29100吨，涨幅1.56%； 行业产能利用率为83.98%，环比涨1.56%。产量增加主要与上周期及本周期恢复装置增加有关，整体上看，恢复增加量远大于检修损失量。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | • | 目前统计下期甲醇计划检修装置减少，恢复装置或将增加，因此市场整体供应量或继续增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • • | 烯烃方面，周内华东烯烃企业负荷稍降，其他企业装置运行稳定，行业周均开工稍有降低。下周中煤蒙大装置预期恢复，烯烃行业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillatory. For butadiene, the short - term price is likely to experience a pullback, but the decline is expected to be limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure remains the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoints - **Supply**: The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber increased significantly this week. The production was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. It is expected that the production will continue to rise next week [4]. - **Demand**: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while that of sample trading enterprises increased [4]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is around 11,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is relatively strong, with upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR spread enters a short - term oscillatory range [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoints - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased this week, with a production of 103,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.99%, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The increase in production was mainly due to the restart of the Shenghong Petrochemical plant [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline this period, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The sample port inventory decreased to a low level for the year, with the latest inventory in East China ports at around 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the butadiene spot price is expected to pull back, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [10][12]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate and production of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations. Some plants have experienced shutdowns and restarts, affecting the overall supply [14][15]. - **Net Imports**: The net imports of butadiene have also fluctuated, affected by factors such as import and export prices and market demand [16]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacities of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have been increasing, with new production capacities put into operation in multiple enterprises in recent years [17]. - **Demand - side - Operating and Maintenance Conditions of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have shown fluctuations, and some plants have planned shutdowns for maintenance [20][21][22]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of ABS and SBS**: The capacities of ABS and SBS have also been expanding. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. In 2024, the SBS capacity increased by 160,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 40,000 tons [26]. - **Inventory - side**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have all shown certain trends of change over time [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber has shown fluctuations, and the operating rates of different plants vary. Some plants have restarted, while others have planned shutdowns for maintenance [35][36]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber have shown different trends over time [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber have shown certain fluctuations [40][41]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber have all shown different trends of change [46][47]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown certain trends of change, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [50][51].

Report Overview - Report Title: Short Fiber and Bottle Chip Weekly Report - Report Date: July 27, 2025 - Analyst Team: Chen Xinchao, He Xiaoqin, Qian Jiayin Industry Investment Ratings - Short Fiber (PF): Short - term, the outlook is oscillating upward due to cost support [8] - Bottle Chip (PR): Short - term, the outlook is oscillating, with a weakening trend in the long - term [5][9] Core Views - Short Fiber: Cost support leads to a short - term oscillating upward trend. Demand is at the bottom and may oscillate at a low level in the short term. The most difficult seasonal period may have passed, with neutral inventory and profits above the cash - flow cost [8] - Bottle Chip: Cost support results in a short - term oscillating market. After production cuts are implemented, there is an expectation of inventory reduction from July to August, and processing fees have room to expand. However, there are still downward pressures in the long - term [9] Summary by Section Bottle Chip (PR) Upstream View Summary - "Anti - involution" policies may increase costs, but have little impact on supply as most bottle - chip devices are less than 10 years old, and the cost gradient among leading enterprises is narrow [12] Valuation and Profit - Current processing fees are between 350 - 400 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively low - to - neutral level and may gradually increase with the tightening of spot supply. Aggregate costs have risen, and export profits are oscillating weakly [49] Fundamental Operating Conditions - Supply: Leading factories have implemented production cuts, and the possibility of further cuts is low. The current operating rate is 79%. If processing fees are restored to the ideal level, restart may be advanced [9] - Demand: Domestic downstream operating rates remain high, and downstream enterprises replenish inventory when prices are low. Sea freight has declined, and the impact on exports from July to August has weakened. There is an expectation of inventory reduction from July to August [9] Inventory - Factory inventory remained flat this week. With the implementation of production cuts, inventory is expected to decrease. The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has declined [54] Device Changes - Production cuts have been implemented as planned. Some factories have carried out maintenance, and there are no planned future maintenance devices for now [60][61] Demand - Downstream operating rates remain high. However, from January to June 2025, the performance of essential consumer sectors such as beverages and edible oils was generally weak. There are still many new production lines of beverage factories to be put into operation this year [70][71] Export - In the short term, exports are affected by sea freight, but the long - term trend is strong. In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 657,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [83] Anti - Dumping Policies - Multiple countries have implemented anti - dumping policies and investigations on Chinese bottle - chip products, which may have an impact on exports [94] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From July to August, the market is in a tight balance, and inventory will accumulate again after September. Supply - side assumptions include the possible continuation of production cuts until the end of August and the commissioning of new devices in September. Demand assumptions are based on a 5% year - on - year increase in the peak season compared to last year, and export demand is expected to recover in August [95][96] Short Fiber (PF) Valuation - The spot, basis, and monthly spreads have weakened. The processing fee on the disk is weak due to rising costs [100][104] Fundamental Operating Conditions - Supply: The operating rate of short - fiber factories remains high. The average operating rate this week was 90.6%, and the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning was 94.7%. It is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the future [8] - Demand: The operating rate of terminal weaving has bottomed out, but yarn production is still reducing due to high inventory. External demand orders will not be reflected until mid - to - late August. Short - fiber inventory is still healthy [8] Inventory - Downstream enterprises have replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure has been relieved [115] Profit - With the decline in costs, most profits have been restored, but polyester chips are still in a loss - making state [123] Downstream Situation - The inventory pressure of polyester yarn is relatively large, and the operating rate is decreasing. Terminal enterprises have replenished inventory, but yarn inventory is still accumulating [131][133] Weaving Operating Rate - The terminal operating rate has bottomed out and is rising [144][147]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PX: Unilateral trend weakens, pay attention to PXN profit hedging and locking, and future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [3] - PTA: Unilateral trend weakens, the industry can hedge at high prices, and pay attention to the 01 contract long PX short PTA [4] - MEG: Short at high prices, with limited upside space for the unilateral price [5][6] - Polyester: The possibility of further large - scale production cuts is decreasing, and the overall load is expected to recover in August [4][174] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX forward curve shifts up as a whole, and profits are repaired. PXN rises, and gasoline cracking spreads decline, with Asian aromatics blending demand weakening [16][28][34] - Aromatic valuations rise as a whole, toluene disproportionation profits are acceptable, and the PX - MX spread remains high [45] Supply and Demand - In June, PX domestic production increased to 3.19 million tons, and this week's operating rate was 79.9% (-1.2%). Future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [57][65][66] - In June, the import volume was 770,000 tons. South Korea's PX exports to China in May were 30,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons, and China's imports from Saudi Arabia continued to be low [68][70] Inventory - In June, Longzhong's monthly PX inventory decreased to 4.35 million tons (-160,000 tons) [87] PTA Valuation and Profit - Spot supply increases, mainly conduct basis reverse hedging and monthly spread positive hedging operations. PTA processing fees are at a relatively low level, and pay attention to the compression position of PTA processing fees under high valuations [98][107] Supply and Demand - This week's PTA operating rate remained at 79.7%. In August, pay attention to the maintenance and restart of multiple devices, and the new 3 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang Hailun Petrochemical is expected to start [111][118] - In June, the export volume was 260,000 tons, and it is expected to recover in July - August. Port inventory continues to rise, and the cumulative amplitude of total inventory is lower than expected [119][134] MEG Valuation and Profit - Unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, and monthly spreads decline, with limited downward space. MEG's relative valuations to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics have all rebounded to the highest level this year, and profits in each link have been significantly repaired [148][153][155] Supply and Demand - Import volume: 620,000 tons in June, expected 630,000 tons in July, expected below 600,000 tons in August, and expected to recover in September. Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol plant operating rate increased to 74%; the total domestic ethylene glycol load was 66% (-1.37%) [5] - The reduction of filament factories has limited impact on the overall polyester operating rate. The current visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has continued to rise month - on - month [6][167] Polyester Supply and Demand - This week's polyester operating rate was 88.7% (+0.2%), and large - scale production cuts are expected to come to an end. The overall load is expected to recover in August [171][174]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term asphalt valuation is expected to be neutral to weak due to mediocre fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market caused by tariff policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [4][5] - In terms of strategies, consider partial profit - taking for reverse spreads in the inter - period and for short - cracking in the inter - variety [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 28.8%, a 4.0% week - on - week decrease. The average weekly domestic asphalt processing profit was - 524 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. Next week, there is an expected slight increase in supply in some areas [4] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers purchase low - price asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north and south markets has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure. In Shandong, continuous rainfall has hindered terminal demand, while in East China, some terminal projects are under concentrated construction, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt has increased by 0.2% to 15.8% [4] - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil. The average weekly domestic asphalt price was 3784 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The price fluctuation range was 3764 - 3794 yuan/ton, and the range expanded. Prices rose in 2 regions, fell in 4 regions, and remained stable in 1 region [5] 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by various factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different advantages, such as no need for crude oil quotas and exemption from consumption tax [8] - **Futures**: Data on futures prices, trading volume, and open interest are presented, including the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC [12] - **Spot**: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, along with the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [13] - **Spread**: The basis and month - to - month spreads in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta are presented [17][20] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [23] - **Downstream Shipment**: From July 16 - 22, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.5 tons, a 0.2% week - on - week increase. The capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises was 14.5%, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease and a 2.5% year - on - year increase [28] 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports (from countries like South Korea and Singapore). Key indicators include inventory, production profit, and maintenance plans [29] - **Output, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From July 18 - 24, 2025, the domestic weekly asphalt output was 51.7 tons, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease and a 12.1% year - on - year increase. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 0.1% [32] - **开工率 (Operating Rate)**: Data on the weekly operating rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [34][36][38] - **Inventory**: Data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of raw materials in the production areas is prone to rise and difficult to fall, with strong cost support. The downstream demand is average, and the acceptance of high prices is limited, resulting in light overall trading. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a potential impact on the supply of natural rubber. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of anti - involution, the market sentiment was bullish last week. However, considering the impact of regulatory control measures on leading varieties and the overall market sentiment, it is expected that rubber may follow the overall market atmosphere and may have a narrow - range correction [76]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [5]. - In the first half of 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% to 5.58 million vehicles, with a 7.3% year - on - year decline in June to 1.01 million vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles rose to 15.6%, and hybrid electric vehicles accounted for 34.8%, while the total market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 37.8% [6]. - Thailand and Cambodia had a border conflict on July 24, with both sides accusing the other of opening fire first [7]. - In June 2025, global light - vehicle sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 7.73 million vehicles. The annualized sales volume after seasonal adjustment rose to 93 million vehicles/year. Trade frictions affected major markets such as the US and Western Europe, while the Chinese market maintained strong sales [8]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise. On July 25, 2025, the closing price of RU2509 was 15,585 yuan/ton, up 5.23% this week; the closing price of NR2509 was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5.09%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 178.90 cents/kg, up 5.30%; and the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 332.70 yen/kg, up 2.56% [10][11]. Basis and Monthly Spread - As of July 25, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 250.00% and a year - on - year increase of 88.33%. The 09 - 01 monthly spread was - 765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.16% and a year - on - year increase of 35.17% [14]. Other Spreads - Cross - variety/cross - market spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On July 25, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2,265 yuan/ton, up 6.09% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year [22][23]. - Non - standard basis spreads: The spreads of Thai mixed rubber to RU, Malaysian mixed rubber to RU, 3L rubber to RU, and African No. 10 rubber to RU changed. For example, the Thai mixed rubber to RU spread was - 485 yuan/ton on July 25, 2025, with a large month - on - month change [24][26]. - Light - dark color spreads: The spread between whole - milk rubber and Thai mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L rubber and Thai mixed rubber narrowed [31]. Substitute Prices - Due to policy factors and the border conflict, the price of synthetic rubber rose, but RU rose more, widening the spread between synthetic rubber and RU. On July 25, 2025, the price of China's mainstream butadiene rubber was 12,200 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,450 yuan/ton [34]. Capital Movements - The long - short position ratio of RU was relatively low, and the funds settled were neutral year - on - year. The long - short position ratio of NR rose rapidly, and the funds settled increased rapidly. On July 25, 2025, the long - short position ratio of RU was 6.98, and that of NR was 16.72 [36][37]. Supply - Weather in Thai production areas: The temperature in southern Thailand rose, and rainfall continued to ease. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was high year - on - year, and rainfall in Hainan increased significantly month - on - month [40][41]. - Raw material prices: The raw material procurement prices continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. On July 25, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 50 baht/kg, and the price of Thai glue was 55.3 baht/kg [44][45]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber decreased, while the spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex plants and that for whole - milk rubber plants increased [53][54]. - Upstream processing profits: This week, the rubber processing profits recovered. On July 25, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was 108 yuan/ton [56][57]. - Rubber imports: In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [60][61]. Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: This week, the overall tire capacity utilization increased slightly. The inventory of some sample tire enterprises increased slightly. On July 25, 2025, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23% [64]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In June 2025, the exports of full - steel and semi - steel tires decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Passenger car sales maintained high growth, and heavy - truck sales improved significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [67][68]. Inventory - Spot inventory: As of July 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.2891 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 795,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 493,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [69]. - Futures inventory: On July 25, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,000 tons, and the futures - spot inventory was 210,800 tons [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be in a volatile pattern. For butadiene, the short - term price is expected to correct, and in the long - term, it will re - enter a weak pattern after the macro sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View Supply - The production capacity of previously restarted high - cis butadiene rubber plants was released, and the load of an individual plant in North China increased. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber this week was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. Yanshan Petrochemical's butadiene rubber plant has produced high - grade products after restarting. It is expected that the production of domestic butadiene rubber will continue to increase next week [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline in the next cycle. At the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises was lower than expected, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase from the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. Due to the influence of macro news and rising raw material costs, the spot and futures markets were expected to be strong, the supply price increased significantly, and some arbitrageurs actively tried to buy, resulting in a slight decrease in the inventory of sample producers and an increase in the inventory of sample traders [4]. View - In the short term, the futures price of butadiene rubber is expected to pull back from a high level and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term. On Friday night, with a large number of speculative funds leaving the market, the commodity index fell from a high level, and synthetic rubber followed suit. In addition, with the strengthening of the basis, the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market is expected to be released, bringing supply - side selling pressure to the spot market. In the medium term, butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate mainly due to three reasons: the anti - involution policy is still in progress, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; the overall rubber sector is supported by fluctuations, and the raw material prices in Thailand have stabilized; the fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry chain have improved marginally, with the inventory of synthetic rubber sample enterprises decreasing slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the tight supply of port goods due to the low arrival volume of butadiene in July [4]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. When the main BR2509 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (the monthly holding cost is about 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity, which will increase the pressure on the upper space of the futures market. The theoretical lower limit of the valuation is 11,500 yuan/ton, as butadiene is expected to support the butadiene rubber price from the cost side [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, it is relatively strong, with the upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and the lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no strategy for inter - delivery spread trading, and the NR - BR price difference will enter a volatile range in the short term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View Supply - Some plants restarted operation this week, increasing the domestic butadiene supply. The output this period was 103,400 tons, a 2.99% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a 2.04% increase from the previous period. The increase in output was mainly due to the restart of Shenghong Petrochemical's plant [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remained high, maintaining a high year - on - year demand for butadiene. With the resumption of butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase. For ABS, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with no significant increase. For SBS, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained at a rigid level with limited price changes [5]. Inventory - From July 17 - 23, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly by 1.07% week - on - week, and the overall inventory fluctuation was limited. The inventory of sample ports decreased by 21.50% week - on - week, reaching a record low for the year due to reasons such as weather - related delays in some ship arrivals and limited imports in July, resulting in tight tradable volumes in the main port storage areas [5]. View - In the short term, as commodities correct and trading volume weakens, the spot price of butadiene is expected to decline. However, the decline is expected to be limited as the arrival volume of butadiene in July is expected to be low, and port prices may remain resilient. In the long term, the supply pressure of butadiene is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is expected to re - enter a weak pattern after the macro sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals Capacity - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude of expansion being slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. Supply - side (Capacity and Maintenance) - Many plants have new production capacity coming on - stream from 2024 to 2025, with a total of 380,000 tons in 2024 and 860,000 tons in 2025. There have also been multiple plant maintenance events, affecting production capacity utilization [10][12][15]. Demand - side - The production capacity of downstream butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber has been expanding, and new plants have been put into operation. The production capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased, with significant capacity increments in 2024 and 2025 [17][26]. Inventory - side - The weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have shown different trends over time, with the current port inventory at a low level due to factors such as limited imports and weather - related delays [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals (Butadiene Rubber) Supply - The production and operating rates of butadiene rubber have changed. Some plants have restarted, and some have planned maintenance. The production cost, profit, and import - export volume of butadiene rubber also have corresponding trends [36][37][41]. Demand - The demand for butadiene rubber is mainly related to the tire industry. The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown different trends over time, which will affect the demand for butadiene rubber [51][52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the coming week (July 28 - August 1), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the China - US economic and trade talks in Sweden. The domestic spot market is accumulating inventory as expected, with limited marginal changes. With little change in fundamentals and improved sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate and wait for new guidance. For domestic soybeans, the spot market is stable, and the growth of new soybeans is good, so the futures market will continue to focus on technical fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Soybean Market (July 21 - July 25) - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week and were at the lower end of expectations, with a neutral - to - bearish impact. In the week of July 17, the 2024/25 US soybean export shipments were about 360,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 30%, and the cumulative export shipments were about 46.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipments to China were 0, and the cumulative shipments to China were about 22.48 million tons (about 23.9 million tons in the same period last year). The current - year (2024/25) weekly net sales were about 160,000 tons (about 270,000 tons in the previous week), and the next - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 240,000 tons (about 530,000 tons in the previous week), with a combined total of about 400,000 tons (about 800,000 tons in the previous week), at the lower end of the expected range (350,000 - 850,000 tons). The weekly net sales to China in both the current and next crop years were 0 [2]. - **US Soybean Good - to - Excellent Rate**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans decreased week - on - week and was lower than expected, with a slightly bullish impact. As of the week of July 21, the good - to - excellent rate was 68%, compared with 70% in the previous week, 68% in the same period last year, and a market expectation of 71% [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Data**: As of the week of July 25, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery decreased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week, with little impact [2]. - **US Soybean - Producing Area Weather**: According to the July 26 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (July 27 - August 9), the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher than normal, and the temperature will be "high first and then low", with a neutral impact [2]. Domestic Futures Market (July 21 - July 25) - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The price of domestic soybean meal futures first rose and then fell. The rise was due to strong domestic market sentiment, reaching a new high since mid - April. The fall was affected by news such as "regulating pig production capacity" and "reducing soybean meal substitution", but these were long - term policy directions, and the news had limited impact on the market. The main reason was the excessive short - term upward pressure and the need to correct the rapid price increase. The weekly decline of the main soybean meal contract m2509 was 1.15% [1][2]. - **Soybean Futures**: The price of domestic soybean futures fluctuated. The spot market was stable, with little change in fundamentals, and the market trend was mainly driven by technical factors. The weekly increase of the main soybean contract a2509 was 0.84% [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market (July 21 - July 25) - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 25, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 138,500 tons, compared with about 132,500 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 25, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, compared with about 185,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. As of the week of July 25, the weekly average basis was about - 167 yuan/ton, compared with about - 160 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 80 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of July 18, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 870,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 10% and a year - on - year decrease of about 25% [4]. - **Soybean Crushing Volume**: The weekly soybean crushing volume decreased slightly week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of July 25, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.24 million tons (2.31 million tons in the previous week and 1.97 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 63% (65% in the previous week and 56% in the same period last year). Next week (July 26 - August 1), the oil mills' soybean crushing volume is expected to be about 2.37 million tons (2.07 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 67% (59% in the same period last year) [4]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market (July 21 - July 25) - **Soybean Prices**: Soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In the Northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans was 4,240 - 4,340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; in the Inner Pass region, it was 5,140 - 5,280 yuan/ton, also unchanged; in the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was 4,660 - 4,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - **New Bean Growth in the Northeast**: New soybeans in the Northeast were growing well, mostly in the flowering and pod - setting stages. The trading of old soybeans was slow, and most transactions were for replenishing inventory out of necessity. Some traders were waiting for the new soybeans to be listed after clearing their inventory [5]. - **Demand in Sales Areas**: It was the off - season for demand, and the demand in sales areas was weak. Due to the hot weather, the production and preservation of soy products were difficult, which suppressed the demand for soy products. Many soy product factories stopped or limited production due to slow sales, and were cautious in purchasing raw soybeans. Dealers in many places said that the sales of domestic soybeans were slower than in the same period last year [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - 本周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.0%，较上周环比+1.4%，但周五夜盘商品普遍大幅下跌，下周烧碱预计走势偏弱，短期承压，长期旺季需求仍有期待 [5]。 - 氧化铝利润扩张但库存累库，山东主要氧化铝企业烧碱库存中性偏高，非铝需求支撑偏弱，出口方向支撑较强但新产能投放影响价格高位补库动力 [5]。 - 山东边际装置成本计算显示09合约估值中性偏高，建议空单持有，09合约下方支撑2400 [5]。 2.2 PVC - 短期走势偏弱，下半年供应端减产驱动不足，高产量、高库存结构难以缓解，市场后期仍会做空氯碱利润 [7]。 - 2025年出口市场竞争压力增大，内需与地产相关的下游制品需求同比仍偏弱，企业备货意愿低 [7]。 - 基差走弱，月差走弱，仓单持续上升，估值偏高，建议空单持有，09合约上方压力5300，下方支撑5080、5000 [8][9]。 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 烧碱价格及价差 - 山东最便宜可交割品价格约2594元/吨 [13]。 - 2025年1 - 6月烧碱累计出口203万吨，同比增加49.3%，下半年出口需求预计持续向好，但需关注贸易商和下游囤货节奏 [23]。 - 出口对高度碱的支撑体现在50碱 - 32碱价差上，目前价差66元/吨，低于蒸发成本，利空烧碱 [27][37]。 - 山东 - 华南套利空间持续走弱，现货下跌使华南贸易商囤货需求偏弱，套利空间难大幅扩张 [28][32]。 3.2 烧碱供应 - 市场结构为产量上升，库存上升，结构偏弱，本周国内烧碱产能利用率84%，较上周环比+1.4%，全国20万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存40.84万吨（湿吨），环比上调6.38%，同比上调4.29% [40]。 - 需关注7 - 8月的检修规模，2025年烧碱实际产能扩张将弱于预期，产能增幅或在2%左右 [44][45]。 - 成本端液氯近期反弹使整体利润状况尚可，电价下滑对烧碱成本影响较大，液氯价格补贴影响企业综合利润 [49][51]。 - 耗氯下游如环氧丙烷、环氧氯丙烷、二氯甲烷、三氯甲烷等开工和利润回升，液氯进一步下行空间有限 [59][65][70]。 3.3 烧碱需求 - 氧化铝开工、库存、利润环比上升，装置复产产量上升，下半年关键看氧化铝投产能否带动新一轮需求扩张，需关注魏桥100万吨、文丰三线160万吨、广西广投100万吨投产时间 [75][77][78]。 - 纸浆行业产能扩张持续，但终端需求淡季，成品纸行业开工同比偏低 [79][85]。 - 粘胶短纤开工回升，印染开工下滑，短期需求稳定；水处理行业开工环比下滑；三元前驱体行业开工稳定 [90][92][94]。 3.4 PVC价格及价差 - PVC基差走弱，后期或阶段性走强，9 - 1月差震荡偏弱 [102]。 3.5 PVC供需 - 本周PVC生产企业产能利用率在76.79%，环比减少0.80%，同比增加3.46%，2025年7 - 8月西北检修逐渐增多，且有较多产能要投产，预计7 - 8月有110万吨集中产能投放 [107][108][109]。 - 西北一体化装置利润尚可，氯碱产业链以碱补氯加大了PVC因亏损大规模减产的难度，西北氯碱一体化装置始终有利润 [111][114]。 - PVC生产企业去库，社会库存累库，下游管材开工下滑，型材、薄膜开工上升，整体同比偏弱 [115][116]。 - 2025年1 - 6月出口累计196.05万吨，单月出口环比下降27.61%，同比去年同月增加21.03%，后期出口或受政策干扰 [127]。 - 大量无风险套利或导致后期仓单大量上升 [128]。