国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内国内浮法玻璃产线略有波动，西北一条产线复产点火，涉及产能600吨。截至2026年1月29日，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296 | | --- | --- | | | 条(19.95万吨/日），其中在产213条，冷修停产83条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.1万吨，与22日持平。 | | | 浮法玻璃行业开工率为71.96%，比22日+0.34个百分点；浮法玻璃行业产能利用率为75.7%，与22日持平。本周（20260123-0129）浮法玻璃行 | | | 业平均开工率71.86%，环比+0.24个百分点；浮法玻璃行业平均产能利用率75.7%，环比持平。 | | 需求 | 深加工： 截至20260115，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.3天，环比+7.9%，同比+86.4%。目前来看，随着春节脚步临近，加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In the week of January 26 - 30, 2026, US soybean futures prices fluctuated. The price increase was due to a weak US dollar and dry - hot weather in Argentina, while the decline was caused by the strong harvest pressure in Brazil, a mediocre US soybean export sales report, a rebound of the US dollar, and improved weather in Argentina. There was no report of large - scale US soybean export orders this week. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 30, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans fell 0.3% and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal fell 2.17% [1]. - In the same week, domestic soybean meal futures prices first rose and then fell, while soybean No.1 futures prices fluctuated and reached a new phased high. The price movement of soybean meal was affected by a slight increase in US soybeans (due to dry - hot weather in Argentina), a strong rebound in domestic rapeseed meal (due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade), and the sentiment of the domestic commodity market. The price movement of soybean No.1 was mainly affected by the domestic commodity market sentiment. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 30, the main m2605 contract of soybean meal rose 0.58%, and the main a2605 contract of soybean No.1 rose 0.41% [2]. - Next week (February 2 - 6, 2026), it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will likely continue to move within a range. For soybean meal, the dry - hot weather in the Argentine production area has eased but there are still concerns, which is expected to support the soybean price. The expected harvest in Brazil will limit the price rebound space, and attention should be paid to the harvest progress. In addition, attention should also be paid to the US soybean export situation. For soybean No.1, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The northeast production area is expected to gradually enter the holiday mode, while the sales area still has pre - holiday stocking demand. The futures price should be monitored in terms of the overall commodity market sentiment and policy sentiment [7]. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean net sales decreased month - on - month, which is a negative factor. In the week of January 22, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipment was about 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 89%. The cumulative export shipment was about 20.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 38%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 820,000 tons (compared to about 2.45 million tons the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 0 (compared to 900,000 tons the previous week). The total was about 820,000 tons (compared to about 2.46 million tons the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 230,000 tons (compared to 1.3 million tons the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 9.65 million tons [2]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week - on - week, which is a positive factor. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for March 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - The Brazilian soybean harvest is faster than last year, and the yield is slightly increased, which is a negative factor. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 4.9%, compared to 2% the previous week and 3.9% the same period last year. The harvest in Mato Grosso is progressing smoothly, the harvest speed in Paraná has slightly increased, and the harvest work in other states is also advancing or has started. The estimated 2025/26 soybean yield in Brazil is 181 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons compared to the forecast on December 22 [2]. - The weather forecast for the main soybean - producing areas in South America shows that in the next two weeks (January 31 - February 13, 2026), precipitation in the main Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be uneven, with some areas having more precipitation, some less, and some being normal. In terms of temperature, most areas will be normal, but the temperature in Rio Grande do Sul will be higher. In the main Argentine soybean - producing areas, precipitation will be less (with an increase around February 6 but then a decrease), and the temperature will be high first and then low. Currently, the dry - hot weather in the Argentine production area has eased from February 7 - 9, but there are still concerns later. There are also concerns about dry - hot weather in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil, so the weather in the production areas still has some positive impacts. Attention should be paid to the persistence of adverse weather [4]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, mainly due to an increase in basis trading. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 310,000 tons, compared to about 190,000 tons the previous week [5]. - The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, affected by pre - holiday stocking. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 194,000 tons, compared to about 188,000 tons the previous week [5]. - The basis of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 349 yuan/ton, compared to about 347 yuan/ton the previous week and about 349 yuan/ton the same period last year [5]. - The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 820,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 111% [5]. - The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to increase next week. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.3 million tons (compared to 2.1 million tons the previous week and 210,000 tons the same period last year due to the Spring Festival holiday), and the operating rate was about 63% (compared to 58% the previous week and 6% the same period last year). Next week (January 31 - February 6, 2026), the soybean crushing volume in oil mills is expected to be about 2.37 million tons (compared to 470,000 tons the same period last year due to the Spring Festival holiday), and the operating rate will be 65% (compared to 13% the same period last year) [5]. Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Market - The price of soybean No.1 is stable with a slight upward trend. In the northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas is in the range of 4,300 - 4,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the inner - pass areas, the purchase price of clean soybeans is in the range of 4,980 - 5,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 - 160 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of northeast edible soybeans is in the range of 4,720 - 4,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [6]. - Farmers in the northeast production area are reluctant to sell, and the state - reserve purchase is gradually completed. The spot price in the northeast production area remains high and firm, with less remaining grain, and farmers are still reluctant to sell. The soybean auctions on various platforms have been well - traded. Some branches of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation have announced the completion of the direct purchase of soybeans from individual farmers in 2025 [6]. - The soybean market in the inner - pass areas has pre - holiday restocking demand. Traders in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and other places have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing, mainly for rigid - demand restocking before the Spring Festival [6]. - The demand in the sales areas is still supported by the Spring Festival factor. Although the downstream market's acceptance of the rising price of northeast soybeans is average and the trading is slow, as the Spring Festival approaches, the market trading may improve [6].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：底部成本支撑，价格走势震荡 | 现货利润 （周） | 盘面利润 | 仓单数量 | 样本企业库存（周） | | 表需 | 日均铁水产量 （周） | 高炉产能利用率（周） | 出口数量 | 进口数量 | 周产量 | | 条 目 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （周） | （张） | | | （12月） | | | （12月） | （12月） | （周） | | | | -25 00 . | . | 8560 | 6 . | 17 . | 44 . | . | 85 . | 3 . | 1 . | 9 . | | | | | 00 | | 79 | 52 | ...

铁矿石周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind富宝资讯： 、 国泰君安期货研究所 资料来源：Mysteel、iFind、Wind、富宝资讯、国泰君安期货研究所 3 -10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 元/吨 铁矿05-09合约 2205-2209 2305-2309 2405-2409 2505-2509 2605-2609 铁矿石周度观点：现实预期博弈，矿价震荡运行 | | | 当周值 | | 上周值 | | | 去年同期值 | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供 应 | 全球发运 | 2978 . | 30 | 2929 . | 90 | 2283 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 1 日 生猪：旺季需求不及预期，抛压将加速 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（1.26-2.1） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 27.35 元/公斤（上周 27.35 元/公斤），本周河 南生猪价格 12.68 元/公斤（上周 13.28 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1559 元/头（上周 1559 元/ 头）。供应端，集团企业增量出栏，南北方散户仍有惜售情绪，出栏意愿增量；需求端，下游屠宰旺季亏 损，旺季虽至，宰量缓慢增量。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.33KG（上周 124.5KG）， 出栏均重环比下降 0.14%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2603 合约最高价为 11530 元/吨，最低价为 11150 元/吨，收盘价为 11220 元/吨（上周同期 11565 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2603 合约基差为 1460 ...

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：基本面供需双弱，情绪面占主导 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 国内供应，产地部分煤矿产量继续提升，叠加前期因安监影响停减产的煤矿恢复正常，供应端继续增量，中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产量 周环比增加14.67万吨至1234.29万吨，产能利用率周环比上升1.02%至85.87%。。进口方面，本周甘其毛都口岸通关车数维持高位运行，中国煤炭资源 网统计本周（1.26-1.29）甘其毛都口岸通关4天，日均通关1457车，较上周同期环比增加281车。 ➢ 2、需求： ➢ 焦炭首轮提涨于上周落地，涨后预计平稳运行，焦化厂心态普遍偏保守，且对炼焦煤的补库已接近尾声，进一步追高采购的意愿不强。本周全国日均 铁水产量为227.98万吨，较上周下降0.12万吨，铁水产量降至低位，对原料的刚性需求减弱。 。 ◆ 3、库存： ➢ 本周各环节焦煤总库存环比增35.3万吨，本周仍处冬储补库周期，坑口库存下 ...

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2026年02月01日 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind富宝资讯： 、 国泰君安期货研究所 ◼ 宏观面：国内宏观："三条红线"约束减轻，房地产市场预期改善，宏观环境整体偏暖。 ◼ 基本面：黑色产业链：钢厂冬储补库，炼钢原料低位买盘仍在。钢材供需格局宽松，但成本有支撑价格宽幅震荡。目前钢材减产 去库，为后续正反馈创造条件。 ◼ 上行风险：黑色商品对宏观刺激脱敏，上行突破依靠成本推动，比如：政策约束煤炭供给收缩；铁矿石供给端突发扰动等；依靠 钢材需求无法形成流畅正反馈行情； ◼ 下行驱动：复产后钢材矛盾累积引发产业链负反馈；铁矿高库存流动性释放，现货带领期货下跌； 国内宏观：《求是》杂志提及改善和稳定房地产市场预期 | 2026/1/30 | | | 供应（万吨） | | | | | | | 需求（万吨） | | | | | 库存 | | | | 现货 | 主力 | 05-10 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 1 日 花生：估值略高 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 报告导读： 现货市场，花生价格稳定。截至 1 月 29 日全国通货米均价 8027 元/吨，较 1 月 22 日跌 18 元/吨、 跌幅 0.22%。全国花生供应充足，部分基层、粮贩等库存较多，仍有惜售心态，产区整体上货量一般，当 前销售进度慢于往年同期。春节临近，下游食品企业刚需备货，整体走货有所加快，但行情持续时间短， 目前基本已进入尾声；全国油厂开机率下滑，部分工厂已停止采购与压榨等，油料需求预期降低。 期货市场，1 月 30 日当周，花生期货上涨。花生主力合约（PK2603）最高价 8114 元/吨，最低 7974 元/吨，收盘价 8066 元/吨（前一周收盘 7988 元/吨）。 （2） 花生市场展望 花生现货年前有效交易时间有限，整体购销氛围清淡。产区基层上货量维持低位，持货商低价出货积 极性不高，贸易加工利润受限，优质货源供应偏紧，质量参差的货源价格混乱，部分加工厂已停工观望； 商品米旺季效应不明显，多数市场销量未有明显提升， 贸易商维持理性观望 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium: Capacity Compensation Policy Implementation and Spot Purchasing Surge May Stabilize Lithium Prices" - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Analysts: Shao Wanyi, Liu Hongru 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - This week, the carbonate lithium futures prices dropped significantly, but the core logic of strong reality and expectations remains unchanged. The supply side is expected to contract marginally as some lithium salt plants plan for phased maintenance, while the demand side shows the characteristic of "not being in the off - season" and remains at a high level. After the price correction, the downstream replenishment willingness has significantly increased. The capacity price policy announced on Friday gives the market a clearer expectation, which may increase the economic viability of independent energy storage systems and potentially raise the project IRR. However, the potential negative feedback risk of demand needs continuous tracking. Currently, the absolute level of lithium prices has fallen to a relatively low level, and the downstream replenishment willingness will support the market. Attention should be paid to the changes in market funds next week [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week, the carbonate lithium futures prices declined sharply. The 2605 contract closed at 148,200 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 33,320 yuan/ton, and the 2607 contract closed at 148,860 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 33,780 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 10,500 yuan/ton to 160,500 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2605 contract) strengthened by 7,700 yuan/ton to - 1,780 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quotation was - 1,350 yuan/ton, strengthening by 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2605 - 2607 contract spread was - 660 yuan/ton, strengthening by 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - Domestic lithium salt plants are gradually entering the seasonal maintenance phase, and the overseas mining cost has increased significantly. Overseas Simga Lithium announced on January 26 that it has resumed mining operations, and it is expected to produce output around March according to the mining progress. The domestic weekly carbonate lithium production was 21,569 tons, a decrease of 648 tons from the previous week [3]. Demand - Short - term demand is relatively strong, and the power terminal is waiting for recovery. The actual production reduction of cathode material plants is limited, and the demand for export rush continues to be released, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. In 2025, the newly added installed capacity of new energy storage projects was 62.24GW/183GWh, a year - on - year increase of 47%/80%. On Friday evening, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Price Mechanism on the Power Generation Side". This week, the total winning bid scale of energy storage projects was 2.15GW/2.31GWh, a week - on - week decrease of 70.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 47.58%. According to information providers, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate batteries in February decreased by 9% month - on - month, and that of ternary batteries decreased by 15% month - on - month, with a smaller decline than the same period last year [3]. Inventory - This week, the carbonate lithium inventory continued to decline, with the industry inventory at 107,482 tons, a reduction of 1,414 tons from the previous week, and the inventory was transferred downstream. This week, 1,325 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 30,211 lots [4]. 3.3 Market Strategy - Unilateral: High - level fluctuations are expected, and the price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 145,000 to 170,000 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: Referring to the downstream pre - holiday replenishment rhythm, take profit on long - short spreads at an appropriate time. - Hedging: Due to large price fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to hedge with options at an appropriate time [7].

2026 年 2 月 1 日 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮镍与不锈钢的核心博弈在于印尼镍政策方面，基于事件的角度： 1）配额事件：印尼能矿部表示配额将根据行业需求进行调整，目标或削减至 2.5-2.6 亿吨镍矿配额。 点评：2024-2025 年的配额量确实超过实际冶炼刚需量，2026 年对需求的重新梳理和配额的重新审视仍 在进行中，目前仍在等待具体政策落地前的真空期，预计一季度或将明确具体政策。如果放眼到长周期， 印尼防止过剩和挺价的心态是明确的，前期低价矿吸引冶炼的红利周期结束，在冶炼端产能过剩后，政策 面或出现周期性的转向。如果 1-12 月目标配额落地，那么矿端紧缺可能倒逼冶炼端减产，从而将过剩预 期扭转为紧缺，并对存量的高库存形成冲击，这也是二级市场对上方仍有想象的核心锚点。不过，从印尼 下游政策的角度来看，若矿端采取激进的"一刀切"方式，易于激化与下游外资冶炼企业的矛盾，产业普 遍认为印尼难有绝对的政策，更关注动态的利益。因此，二级市场和产业双方在印尼 ...