2025年10月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡，关注需求持续性 | 4 | | 工业硅：弱势震荡 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注政策实际落地节点 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,160 | -110 | -1,020 | 260 | -820 | 60 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,630 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On October 19, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined. IF dropped by 1.55%, IH by 1.16%, IC by 2.06%, and IM by 2.22%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, and IC decreased, while that of IM increased. [1][2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. There are positive signals in Sino - US trade relations, and the Chinese government has carried out relevant policy deployments. [6] - In September, the number of newly opened margin trading accounts in the market reached a record high this year. The margin trading balance in the A - share market increased significantly in the third quarter. The A - share market closed lower overall, with most sectors falling. [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Index Futures Data**: The closing prices of various index futures contracts declined. For example, the closing price of IF2510 was 4539.6, down 1.55%; IH2510 was 2983, down 1.16%; IC2510 was 7064, down 2.06%; IM2510 was 7230.2, down 2.22%. The trading volume and positions of different contracts changed. For instance, the trading volume of IF2510 decreased by 11149, and its position decreased by 23420. [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 15958 lots, IH by 12901 lots, IC by 13852 lots, and IM by 41160 lots. The total positions of IF decreased by 9025 lots, IH by 5962 lots, IC by 6464 lots, and IM increased by 8741 lots. [2] - **Basis**: The basis of different index futures contracts varied. For example, the basis of IF2510 was 25.37, IH2510 was 15.23, IC2510 was 47.93, and IM2510 was 44.72. [1] - **Positions of the Top 20 Members**: The long and short positions of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts changed. For example, in IF2510, the long positions decreased by 13612, and the short positions decreased by 13264. [5] 2. Trend Strength and Important Drivers - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral view. [6] - **Important Drivers**: There were positive signals in Sino - US trade relations, including a video call between Chinese and US economic and trade leaders and statements from US President Trump. The Chinese government carried out relevant policy deployments, such as the State Council's research on reducing logistics costs and other matters. [6] 3. Margin Trading and A - share Market Conditions - **Margin Trading**: In September, the number of newly opened margin trading accounts in the market was 205,400, a record high this year. The margin trading balance in the A - share market increased from 1.85 trillion yuan at the end of the second quarter to 2.39 trillion yuan at the end of the third quarter, a single - quarter increase of 29.19%. [7] - **A - share Market Closing**: The A - share market closed lower overall, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. Most sectors fell, and only a few concepts such as cross - strait integration, Hainan, and duty - free shops rose. The trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan, the same as the previous day. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the futures trends of various black - series commodities, indicating that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations; logs will fluctuate repeatedly. The cost provides bottom support for silicon iron and manganese silicon, while the expectations for coke and coking coal are volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 771.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the position increased by 9,848 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped by 4.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) rose by 1.0 yuan/ton, etc. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,037 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%); the trading volume was 854,671 hands, and the position decreased by 35,070 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,204 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.16%); the trading volume was 487,804 hands, and the position increased by 16,084 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed accordingly [8]. - **News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 16, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 2.24 million tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.45 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 6.36 million tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 18.59 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 6.29 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 18.46 million tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 73.74 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 24.58 million tons, and the total increased by 139.96 million tons. In early October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.032 million tons, a 7.5% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.75 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.875 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month; 19.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.961 million tons, an 8.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month. In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a 3.3% decrease month - on - month, and imported 500,000 tons of steel, a 10.4% increase month - on - month [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [10] Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost provides bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][12] - **Fundamentals**: For silicon iron 2511, the closing price was 5,458 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; for silicon iron 2601, it was 5,430 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2511, the closing price was 5,716 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; for manganese silicon 2601, it was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [12]. - **News**: On October 17, the prices of different grades of silicon iron and silicon manganese in various regions were reported. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of silicon manganese showed different changes. An Inner Mongolia silicon iron plant carried out maintenance on two furnaces, with one recently restarted and the other expected to restart around the 25th. Steel mills such as Jinshenglan and Hegang had price adjustments and procurement volume changes for silicon iron and silicon manganese. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in ports decreased [12][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][17][18] - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2601, the previous day's closing price was 1,179 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton (-0.5%); for coke J2601, it was 1,676 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton (0.2%). Spot prices and various spreads also changed [18]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [19] Logs - **Trend**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][20] - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [22]

期 货 研 究 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6292 | 4402 | 4003 | 6036 | 435 | | 涨跌 | -84 | -54 | -86 | -56 | -10.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.32% | -1.21% | -2.10% | -0.92% | -2.44% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -28 | -58 | -82 | -12 | -2.4 | | 前日收盘价 | -38 | -56 | -79 | -14 | -2.1 | | 涨跌 | 10 | -2 | -3 | 2 | -0.3 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | ...

2025 年 10 月 20 日 集运指数（欧线）：现货变化不大，地缘问题反复 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 | | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2510 | 1,096.9 | -1.36% | 1,580 | 9,024 | -1,036 | 0.18 | 0.24 | | | EC2512 | 1,654.7 | -0.50% | 29,837 | 25,659 | -139 | 1.16 | 1.05 | | | EC2602 | 1,472.0 | 3.09% | 5,161 | 9,438 | 7 9 | 0.55 | 0.59 | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | 530.7 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the A-share market declined overall, with defensive sectors outperforming. The growth sectors led the decline, mainly due to Sino-US trade frictions and the emerging credit risks of US regional banks, which suppressed risk appetite. Although economic data in September exceeded expectations, the market continued to price marginal changes. Since October, external black swan events have made the market sentiment extremely sensitive, amplifying market fluctuations [1]. - The current core drivers are the development of external geopolitical situations and the extent of domestic policy support. The Fourth Plenary Session started at the beginning of this week, and the core content of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be announced on the closing day of the meeting on October 23. If the content exceeds expectations, it may trigger speculative trading in related themes. Regarding external geopolitics, there are signs of easing in Sino-US relations. If the news of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents is confirmed as the APEC meeting in South Korea approaches in late October, risk appetite may recover. After last week's adjustment, the market is expected to stabilize this week, but the upward space depends on whether positive Sino-US news can materialize [2]. - Key factors to watch include China's September production and consumption data, Q3 GDP data, the progress of Sino-US relations, and the performance of the US stock market [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [3]. - **Trend Strategy**: Buy on dips. The core trading ranges for the IF2511, IH2511, IC2511, and IM2511 contracts are expected to be between 4361 - 4586 points, 2890 - 3023 points, 6715 - 7165 points, and 6852 - 7313 points respectively [3]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Re - enter the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.4%, and most major domestic indices declined. Among them, the ChiNext Index and the Small and Medium - sized Board Index led the decline, falling by 5.71% and 5.77% respectively. In terms of sectors, the banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors had the highest gains, while the electronics, media, and automotive sectors led the decline [1][8][12][14]. - Since 2025, most domestic indices have risen, with the ChiNext Index leading the way with a 37.1% increase [10]. 4.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, the IC contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude [17][20]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures have rebounded [19][21]. 4.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of October 17, the price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 14.15 times, 11.95 times, 33.44 times, and 45.68 times respectively [24][25]. 4.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The share of newly established equity - biased funds and the margin trading balance in the A - share market are provided in the report, and last week, the capital interest rate dropped, and the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) for this week is wide - range fluctuations. It's necessary to pay more attention to supply - side changes, especially the shipping schedule delays from late November to December caused by port congestion in Europe, which potentially benefit the 2512 contract. The 2512 contract is recommended to be traded with a wide - range fluctuation strategy, and the 2602 contract can also be considered for low - buying opportunities, mainly through 02 - 04 positive spreads for rolling long positions [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Spot Freight and Spot Index Tracking - The average market freight for 43 weeks was 1108 dollars for 20GP and 1812 dollars for 40GP. The SCFIS European Line index on October 13th was 1031.80 points, and it's expected to be around 1100 points on October 20th. The freight of the PA alliance loosened in late October, falling to 1300 - 1500 dollars/FEU [12][14][15] Seasonal Freight Trends of Major Global Routes - The SCFI and NCFI show the seasonal freight trends of major global routes, including Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - Mediterranean, Shanghai - North America, etc [17][18][20] Demand Side China's Export Perspective - In September 2025, China's US - dollar - denominated export year - on - year growth rate rebounded to 8.2%. Exports to the EU, Africa, and ASEAN remained strong, with the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the EU rising to 14.2% [26] Asia's Export to Europe Perspective - From January to August 2025, the cumulative container trade volume from Asia to Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) was 13.18 million TEU, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.7% [4] Asia's Export to North America Perspective - In January 2025, the container trade volume from Asia to North America was 2.1188 million TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [33] US Import Volume Weekly Tracking - The data shows the weekly container import volume of the US from the world, India, China, etc., updated to October 9th [36][37][38] Supply Side Supply Chain Risk Events - Events include the Middle East geopolitical situation, European port operation efficiency, and Southeast Asian extreme weather. For example, Tropical Storm "Ramil" may affect port operations in South China Sea areas [45][46][47] Shipping Schedule Table - The weekly average capacity in November remained around 300,000 TEU/week (excluding 2 pending voyages), with a month - on - month increase of 16.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. There are many pending voyages in December, and the capacity may be significantly revised later [4][50] Dynamic Capacity - In the past week, the speed of 8,000 - 11,999TEU container fleets was around 15 knots, and the idle capacity of 8 - 11,999TEU container fleets was 14 ships as of October 10th [59] Turnover Efficiency - Data shows the congestion situations of ports in China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America, and Asia [61][63][65] Static Capacity - In the past three months, the top ten liner companies received new 12,000+TEU container ships, with some deployed on European, American, and Latin American routes. In the next three months, they are expected to receive 18 new 12,000+TEU container ships [74][75][76]

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views LPG - This week, LPG's civil price declined due to international oil prices and a loose domestic supply - demand pattern; import costs dropped as FEI and CP decreased. The contract rebounded from previous lows. In the short - term, chemical demand is weak, and supply is affected by macro and policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to macro factors, import costs, and international geopolitical situations [3]. Propylene - This week, domestic propylene prices declined due to changes in supply and demand. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened significantly. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will improve, but the loose pattern will continue. Propylene prices are expected to remain weak with limited downside [4]. Summary by Directory LPG - Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices, including those of civil gas and other types, generally declined this week. Import gas prices also showed a downward trend, and the basis of various types of LPG changed significantly [7]. - The US - Far East freight dropped sharply, and the spreads between FEI and CP showed opposite trends. Propane prices weakened significantly [14][23]. LPG - Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly due to the substitution of cracking raw materials. Canadian propane shipments decreased slightly. Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and other Middle Eastern countries' LPG shipments showed different trends. China's LPG imports decreased, and the total LPG commodity volume increased slightly [32][40][59]. - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 55.0 tons (+1.3%), with civil gas at 22.2 tons (+1.8%). Propane imports decreased by 12.9 tons [62][71]. LPG - Demand & Inventory - The开工 rates of PDH and MTBE decreased slightly. In terms of inventory, LPG refinery and port inventories were at a high level year - on - year and mainly decreased month - on - month (except in Shandong) [77][86][96]. Propylene - Price & Spread - Upstream prices of the propylene industry chain generally declined, and propylene prices also decreased. The prices of downstream products in the propylene industry chain showed different trends, and the profits of some products changed significantly [107][109]. - International and domestic propylene prices both showed a downward trend, with international prices having a slight correction from high levels and domestic prices running weakly [110][118]. Propylene - Balance Sheet - The开工 rates of the propylene industry chain changed this week, with some devices having decreased开工 rates. The supply and demand of propylene in the national balance sheet showed different trends in different months, and the inventory decreased slightly [128][130][131].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a state of caution due to the game between supply constraints and trade uncertainties. Macro risks have eased, and the supply shortage logic persists, providing long - term opportunities for bulls. Attention should be paid to the development of trade frictions. [6][10] - For aluminum, it is still testing the 21,000 - yuan level. The market is worried about the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions. In the short - term, the price shows a convergent oscillation. In the long - term, there is a bullish view on the unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit. [78] - Regarding alumina, it is necessary to focus on whether the bottom has been found below 2,800 yuan. The spot market is weak in the short - term, but it has entered the cost - valuation support test phase. [79] Summary by Directory Copper Industry Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME and COMEX copper has increased. COMEX copper price volatility is around 27%, and SHFE copper volatility is around 25%. [16] - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has flattened, the spot discount of LME copper has narrowed, and the near - end structure of COMEX copper has changed from B to C. [18][22] - Position: The positions of SHFE and international copper have decreased, while the position of COMEX copper has increased. SHFE copper position decreased by 47,700 lots to 530,600 lots. [23] - Capital and Industry Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, and the net long position of CFTC non - commercial has also decreased slightly. [29] - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, and the bonded - area copper premium has declined. [32][34] - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. [35][37] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has recovered, while that of SHFE copper is at a historically low level. [38] Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrate has increased year - on - year, the port inventory has decreased, and the processing fee has remained weak. [41] - Recycled Copper: The import and domestic production of recycled copper have increased year - on - year. The scrap - refined copper price difference has narrowed, and the import loss has also decreased. [42][47] - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has decreased, and the processing fee is at a low level. [51] - Refined Copper: The production and import of refined copper have increased year - on - year, and the spot import loss has narrowed. [54][55] Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises has rebounded in September, and the operating rate of wire and cable has increased marginally. [58] - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods is at a historically low level, while that of copper tubes has recovered. [60][62] - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. [63] - Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventory of copper rods has increased, while that of wire and cable has decreased. [66] Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of copper is good, and grid investment is an important support. The grid investment has accelerated, and the cumulative investment from January to August reached 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. [71][73] - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: The production of air - conditioners has resumed growth, and the production of new - energy vehicles is at a historically high level. [74] Aluminum and Alumina Industry Trading End - Term Spread: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina has strengthened, and the near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has narrowed. [82][85] - Volume and Position: The position of SHFE aluminum and alumina main contracts has increased slightly, while the trading volume has decreased slightly. [88] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum and alumina has declined. [93] Inventory End - Bauxite: The port inventory and inventory days of bauxite have increased. The inventory of alumina enterprises has continued to accumulate, the port shipping volume and floating inventory have decreased, and the out - port and in - port volumes have also declined. [98][103][104] - Alumina: The social inventory of alumina has increased, and the price has continued to decline. [79] - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum has decreased, and the spot premium has changed from discount to flat or premium. [78]

2025年10月19日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 棕榈油：产地去库进程偏慢，关注下方支撑 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库进程偏慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情暂好，豆系缺乏有效驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易事件不确定，低位震荡 | 8 | | 豆一：震荡 | 8 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 13 | | 白糖：低位震荡 | 19 | | 棉花：预计期价短期偏震荡 | 26 | | 生猪：二育刺激效果不及预期 | 33 | | 花生：面临供应压力 | 39 | 棕榈油：产地季节性减产尚未到来，印度买盘暂因排灯节放缓，缺乏有效驱动和故事的情况下，棕榈 油 01 合约维持小幅震荡，周跌 1.90%，关注减产季下方支撑。 豆油：巴西产情良好，大供给环境下豆油难以出现独立驱动，跟随油脂板块震荡为主，同时跟随中美 经贸关系波动，豆油 01 合约周跌 0.82%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：MPOB 报告证实马来 9 ...