Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: With frequent news about bio - diesel, the volatility of edible oils has intensified [2][4]. - Soybean oil: There are insufficient themes for US soybeans, limiting the rebound height [2][4]. - Soybean meal: After the uncertainty is removed, the price may rebound [2][11]. - Soybean: The price will fluctuate [2][10]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][13]. - Sugar: The price is in a low - level consolidation [2][17]. - Cotton: Wait for the end of the adjustment [2][22]. - Eggs: The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [2][26]. - Live pigs: Wait for the verification of peak - season demand [2][29]. - Peanuts: The price will move in a range [2][34]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 8,674 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and night - trading closing price was 8,630 yuan/ton with a 0.51% decrease. Soybean oil's day - trading closing price was 8,016 yuan/ton with a 0.98% increase, and night - trading closing price was 7,996 yuan/ton with a 0.25% decrease [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 18.24% compared to the same period last month. The expected export volume from January 1 - 15, 2026, increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month. The US has lifted the import ban on Malaysia's FGV Holdings. Brazil's 2025 soybean production was estimated at 166.05 million tons, a 14.6% year - on - year increase [5][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2605's day - trading closing price was 2,727 yuan/ton with a 0.44% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 2,722 yuan/ton with a 0.40% decrease. DCE soybean 2605's day - trading closing price was 4,324 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 4,303 yuan/ton with a 0.74% decrease [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 16, CBOT soybean futures rose due to strong domestic soybean crushing and the strength of neighboring corn and wheat. However, Brazil's record - high soybean harvest will limit the upside of soybean prices. Canada and China reached a trade agreement including reducing rapeseed tariffs [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The day - trading closing price of C2603 was 2,281 yuan/ton with a 0.13% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 2,284 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase. The day - trading closing price of C2605 was 2,277 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decrease, and night - trading closing price remained unchanged [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price was 2,280 - 2,290 yuan/ton, and the container first - class grain port price was 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The price in Guangdong Shekou decreased by 10 yuan/ton [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.96 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,350 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,258 yuan/ton [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 25/26 season increased by 22% year - on - year. Brazil exported 291 million tons in December, a 2.9% increase. China imported 44 million tons of sugar in November, a 9 - million - ton decrease [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is - 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The day - trading closing price of CF2605 was 14,590 yuan/ton with a 0.58% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 14,535 yuan/ton with a 0.38% decrease. The day - trading closing price of CY2603 was 20,535 yuan/ton with a 0.63% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 20,525 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot sales basis is stable, and the freight for cotton out of Xinjiang has increased slightly. The price of pure - cotton yarn has declined slightly, and the downstream orders have improved slightly but are still limited [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 3,026 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.50% increase, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,072 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.39% increase [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [27]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,180 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12,800 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 13,060 yuan/ton. The closing price of live - pig 2603 was 12,010 yuan/ton, live - pig 2605 was 12,260 yuan/ton, and live - pig 2607 was 12,885 yuan/ton [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is 0 [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The day - trading closing price of PK603 was 7,830 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease, and PK605 was 7,822 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease. The price of Xingcheng small - Japanese peanuts decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang Baisha peanuts were priced at 3.75 - 3.8 yuan, and Kaifeng large peanuts were 3.5 - 4.0 yuan. In Jilin, 308 peanuts were about 4.6 yuan. In Liaoning, 308 peanuts were 4.5 - 4.6 yuan, and the price of Fuxin small - Japanese peanuts was slightly stronger [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [36].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 19 日 国 泰 君 | | 豆一：震荡 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴光静 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 | wuguangjing@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4324 | （-0.21%） -9 | 4303 | （-0.74%） -32 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2727 | -11 （-0.40%） | 2722 | -12 （-0.44%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1056.25 | +3.25（+0.31%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 289.9 | +0.7（+0.24%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 3085～3150， | 较昨-30至持平； | 现货M2605+ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to inconsistent statements from Indonesia, while stainless steel prices are influenced by contradictions in the mining end, with ferronickel price increases supporting the price center [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 141,350, down 5,400 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,275, down 140 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 1,325,220, down 412,913 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 500,299, down 172,285 compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 146,550, up 50 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,018, up 5 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,400, up 50 compared to T - 1 [1]. Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [2]. - Indonesia plans to cut its 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mining companies are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [4]. - Indonesian officials stated that nickel production in 2026 will be adjusted according to industry demand and smelter production capacity, with the output likely to be around 250 - 260 million tons [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, both indicating a neutral trend [5].

2026 年 01 月 19 日 商 品 研 究 铂：ETF 较大幅度流出，上方承压 钯：跟随区间震荡 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 610. 05 | | 0. 16% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 602. 46 | | 0. 85% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2342. 90 | | -3.02% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2332. 40 | | -3.46% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 469. 35 | | -1.93% | | | | 人民币现货包金 | 441.00 | | 1. 38% | | | 价格 | 纽约兜主连(前日) | 1.846.50 | | -1.02% | | | | 伦敦现货包金(前日) | 1. 804. 00 | | -1.04% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 广铂(千克) | 25.702 | -4.345 | 37 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 19 日 铜：美元走强，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 100,770 | -1.75% | 103660 | 2.87% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,809 | -2.59% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 633,054 | -10,180 | 643,590 | -39,786 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 32,701 | -32,923 | 324,000 | -2,103 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 160,417 | -2,300 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 143,575 | 2,450 | 34.53% | ...

Report Information - Report Date: January 19, 2026 [1] - Title: Tin: Focus on Resource Stockpiling [1] - Analysts: Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476), Tang Wenhao (Contact, Futures Qualification No.: F03152608) [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on tin resources and suggests paying attention to resource stockpiling. The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 405,240, down 6.41%, and the night - session closing price was 379,400, down 8.42%. The closing price of the LME 3M electronic tin plate was 47,708, down 9.60%. Trading volume and positions of both contracts decreased compared to the previous day [2] - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 9,462, down 64; LME Tin inventory was 5,935, up 10. The LME Tin cancellation warrant ratio was 6.57%, down 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price Difference**: SMM 1 tin ingot price was 414,050, down 11,950; Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 414,500, down 20,500. Various price differences also showed changes [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi decreased by 13,950. The prices of 63A and 60A solder bars decreased by 7,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Macron responded to US tariff threats, not ruling out the activation of the EU's toughest trade counter - measures - Trump said he would impose tariffs on 8 European countries until "fully acquiring Greenland" - Trump said he "persuaded himself" to postpone military action against Iran - The US Supreme Court set next Tuesday (January 20) as the next tariff opinion day [4] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 0, with the range of values being integers from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers insights and analyses on various commodities, including their current market conditions, trends, and influencing factors. It provides price data, trading volumes, inventory levels, and relevant news for each commodity, along with trend strength ratings to assist investors in making decisions. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Comex Gold 2602 decreased, while the trading volume and open interest also declined. The trend strength is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: There are fluctuations in tariff expectations. The prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Comex Silver 2602 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed accordingly. The trend strength is 1 [5]. - **Platinum**: There was a significant outflow from ETFs, putting pressure on the upside. The prices of platinum futures and related spot markets showed different trends, and the trend strength is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: It follows a range - bound oscillation. The prices of palladium futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [24]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on prices. The prices of Shanghai Copper and LME Copper decreased, and the trading volume and open interest also changed. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of Shanghai Zinc and LME Zinc decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 1 [11]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventories limits the price decline. The prices of Shanghai Lead and LME Lead decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [14]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to resource stockpiling. The prices of Shanghai Tin and LME Tin decreased significantly, and the trading volume and open interest also changed. The trend strength is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: It is grinding at a high level. The prices of Shanghai Aluminum and LME Aluminum decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 1 [21]. - **Alumina**: It is in a resonant downward trend. The prices of Shanghai Alumina decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The prices of the alloy decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 1 [21]. - **Nickel**: Repeated statements from Indonesia have disturbed market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in nickel prices. The prices of Shanghai Nickel and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is anchored to the contradictions in the ore end, and the increase in nickel - iron prices supports the center of gravity. The prices of stainless - steel futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot purchases have increased, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances. The prices of lithium carbonate futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - selling positions should be established on rallies. The prices of industrial silicon futures decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the impact of news. The prices of polysilicon futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is relatively high, and caution is advised when chasing the upside. The prices of iron - ore futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: It is in a repeated oscillation. The prices of rebar futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It is in a repeated oscillation. The prices of hot - rolled coil futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The raw material cost has weakened, leading to wide - range oscillations. The prices of silicon ferrosilicon futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [47]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The demand side has tightened slightly, leading to wide - range oscillations. The prices of manganese silicon futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [47]. - **Coke**: Downstream accidents have disturbed the market, leading to high - level oscillations. The prices of coke futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [51]. - **Coking Coal**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The prices of coking coal futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [51]. - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term. The market is affected by factors such as import volume and policy. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [55]. - **Rubber**: It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of rubber futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [60]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The prices of synthetic rubber futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [63]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and spot trading has weakened. The prices of LLDPE futures decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [66]. - **PP**: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support for PP is relatively strong. The prices of PP futures decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [69]. - **Caustic Soda**: The near - month pressure continues. The prices of caustic soda futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trend strength is - 1 [72]. - **Pulp**: It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of pulp futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [78]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices of glass futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [81]. - **Methanol**: It is in an oscillatory operation. The prices of methanol futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [84]. - **Urea**: It is in an oscillatory consolidation. The prices of urea futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [89]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillation. The prices of styrene futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [93]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The prices of soda ash futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [96]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward driving force. The prices of LPG futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [99]. - **Propylene**: After a rapid increase in the spot price, the upward driving force has weakened. The prices of propylene futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [99]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of PVC futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is - 1 [107]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the upward trend has paused. The prices of fuel oil futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [110]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There was a slight rebound at night, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The prices of low - sulfur fuel oil futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [110]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is frequent news about bio - diesel, leading to increased fluctuations in the oil market. The prices of palm oil futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [138]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is a lack of positive news about US soybeans, limiting the rebound height. The prices of soybean oil futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [138]. - **Soybean Meal**: With the uncertainty removed, the price may rebound. The prices of soybean meal futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is + 1 [144]. - **Soybean**: It is in an oscillation. The prices of soybean futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [144]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The prices of corn futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [147]. - **Sugar**: It is in a low - level consolidation. The prices of sugar futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is - 1 [151]. - **Cotton**: Waiting for the end of the adjustment. The prices of cotton futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [156]. - **Egg**: The sentiment for the far - month contracts has weakened. The prices of egg futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [160]. - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the confirmation of peak - season demand. The prices of live - pig futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [163]. - **Peanut**: It is in an oscillatory operation. The prices of peanut futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [168]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of container freight index futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [112]. Paper Products - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short positions should be closed at an appropriate time. The prices of offset printing paper futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is - 1 [129]. Fibers - **Staple Fiber**: It is in a short - term oscillatory market, and the processing margin is at a low level. The prices of staple - fiber futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [126]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term oscillatory market. The prices of bottle - chip futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [126]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: It is mainly in a short - term oscillation. The prices of pure benzene futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [134].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market is currently in a state of weakening trends, with the spot prices of softwood pulp following the decline of the futures market. The hardwood pulp market has also shown signs of weakness, and the downstream demand is sluggish, intensifying the bearish sentiment [1][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of the pulp main contract in both the day and night sessions decreased compared to the previous day. The trading volume and open interest increased, while the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The net position of the top 20 members increased [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of silver star - futures main contract decreased, while the basis of goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) increased. The month - spread of SP03 - SP05 also increased [3] - **Spot Market**: Different pulp varieties have different prices. For example, the domestic price of northern softwood pulp is 5700 yuan/ton, and the international price of silver star is 710 US dollars/ton [3] Industry News - Last week, the decline in the futures market led to a decline in the spot price of softwood pulp. The hardwood pulp market also showed signs of weakness. The downstream demand is weak, with low purchasing willingness, and the bearish sentiment is intensifying. Attention should be paid to whether the futures market can stop falling and stabilize, whether the low - price rumors in the hardwood pulp market will become a general price - reduction behavior, and whether there are changes in the downstream's willingness to replenish stocks at low prices [4] Paper Product Market - The mainstream price of 70g natural white offset paper is 4450 yuan/ton, and the average price of 70g high - white offset paper is 4750 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous working day. Factory production has not increased, and the market supply is abundant. The high pulp cost squeezes the industry's profit, and paper mills are determined to maintain prices. The market demand from consumers is weak, and it is difficult to effectively transmit the price downstream. Traders generally adopt a fast - turnover strategy, and there are price concessions in regional transactions. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and pulp price changes [5]

2026 年 01 月 19 日 短纤：短期震荡市，加工费低位运行 20260119 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260119 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6382 | 6384 | -2 | PF02-03 | -18 | -10 | -8 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6400 | 6394 | 6 | PF03-04 | -44 | -144 | 100 | | | 短纤2604 | 6444 | ୧୧38 | -94 | PF主力基差 | 55 | 76 | -21 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 193449 | 137521 | 55928 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 455 | 6.470 | -15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 196310 | 189825 | 6485 | 短纤产销率 | 76% | ...

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium: Spot Purchases Surge, Monitor Supply - side Disturbances" and was released on January 19, 2026 [1] 2. Analysts - The analysts are Shao Wanyi (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015722, Email: shaowanyi@gtht.com) and Liu Hongru (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0023466, Email: liuhongru@gtht.com) [1] 3. Fundamental Data Tracking 3.1 Futures Contracts - For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 146,200 yuan, with a change of - 17,020 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 591,523, with a change of 160,267 compared to T - 1; the open interest is 416,133, with a change of - 27,809 compared to T - 1 [2] - For the 2607 contract, the closing price is 146,940 yuan, with a change of - 17,460 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 135,025, with a change of 31,447 compared to T - 1; the open interest is 118,444, with a change of - 12,300 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Basis and Other Price Differences - The basis of spot - 2605 is 11,800 yuan, and spot - 2607 is 11,060 yuan; the basis of 2605 - 2607 is - 740 yuan; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 3,500 yuan; the difference between spot and CIF is 44,754 yuan [2] 3.3 Raw Materials and Lithium Salts - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,980 yuan, with a change of - 80 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,835 yuan, with a change of - 100 yuan compared to T - 1 [2] - The price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 158,000 yuan, with a change of - 1,000 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 154,500 yuan, with a change of - 1,000 yuan compared to T - 1 [2] 3.4 Downstream Products - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 55,475 yuan, with a change of - 240 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) is 191,850 yuan, with a change of - 500 yuan compared to T - 1 [2] 4. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 159,477 yuan/ton, down 783 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 158,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 154,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan/ton [3] - In 2025, the installed capacity of large - scale battery energy storage systems in Germany increased from 2.3GWh to 3.7GWh, a 60% increase, and the current total installed capacity of battery energy storage is close to 25GWh, with nearly 20GWh being household energy storage systems [3][4] 5. Trend Strength - The trend strength of carbonate lithium is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the trend strength value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]