BZ&EB周报：短期EB高位震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：短期EB高位震荡 | | • | 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。部分山 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 东地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 | | | • | 纯苯进口：虽然海外库存压力仍然偏大，但是整体进口量下调。26年1-3月纯苯单月进口量平均约43万吨左右。美韩关税仍在，但是后续美亚芳烃物流在 | | | | 春节后可能继续发生，预估影响每个月3-4万吨纯苯。 | | | • | 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 | | | • | 己内酰胺：CPL负 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: February 1, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The prices of domestic and international fuel oils have continued to fluctuate widely recently, and the short-term market has entered a situation where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall. High-sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to remain high, while low-sulfur fuel oil prices have support at the bottom and are unlikely to weaken significantly in the short term. [4] - The recommended trading strategies are: 1) Unilateral trading: Fuel oil prices are in a high-volatility environment in the short term, and there may be further upside potential. 2) Inter-period trading: The inter-period spreads of FU and LU have returned to backwardation and may return to contango after the geopolitical issues cool down. 3) Inter-variety trading: The crack spreads of FU and LU have rebounded slightly in the short term, and the LU-FU spread will continue to shrink in the short term. [4] - The estimated price ranges for FU and LU are 2850 - 2950 and 3200 - 3400, respectively. [4] Summary by Directory Supply - The number of global CDU maintenance units has increased slightly. Although the exports from the Middle East have continued to rise, they have not flowed into Singapore and Malaysia in the short term, and the imports in the Singapore market have not increased significantly for the time being. [4] - Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, global refinery maintenance, and domestic refinery fuel oil production and commercial volumes are presented in the form of charts. [6][13][15] Demand - Data on domestic and international fuel oil demand, including the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, are presented in the form of charts. [17][18] Inventory - Data on global fuel oil spot inventories, including the heavy oil inventories in Singapore, the fuel oil inventories in the European ARA region, the heavy distillate inventories in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventories in the United States, are presented in the form of charts. [20][21][22] Price and Spread - Data on the FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia-Pacific region, Europe, and the United States, as well as the prices of paper and derivatives, are presented in the form of charts. [26][31][32] - Data on fuel oil spot spreads, global fuel oil crack spreads, and global fuel oil paper monthly spreads are presented in the form of charts. [41][42][47] Import and Export - Data on domestic fuel oil import and export, as well as global high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil import and export, are presented in the form of charts. [50][54][57] Futures Market Indicators and Inter-Region Spreads - The prices of Asia-Pacific fuel oil in the week increased significantly, and the trend in the Zhoushan market was in sync. The inter-region spreads of high-sulfur fuel oil narrowed, while those of LU widened. [63] - Data on the inter-region spreads in the spot market, as well as the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts of FU and LU, are presented in the form of charts. [66][73][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core game of nickel and stainless steel lies in Indonesia's nickel policies, with events such as quota adjustments, inclusion of associated minerals in pricing, fines for illegal land use, and suspension of mining operations affecting the market [1]. - For Shanghai nickel, there is a contradiction between high - inventory and marginal inventory accumulation, and an increase in supply elasticity after profit repair. The market has different expectations for Indonesia's nickel ore policies, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely due to the confrontation between hedging and speculative funds. It is recommended to consider options and pay attention to structural opportunities [3][4]. - For stainless steel, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with off - season inventory accumulation. Cost logic supports the bottom of the price range, but the consumption side lacks upward drive. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and the breakthrough in direction depends on the dynamics of Indonesia's quota policies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Indonesia's Nickel Policy Events - **Quota Event**: Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry may adjust the nickel ore quota to 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. If the target quota is implemented, it may turn the oversupply expectation into a shortage and impact high inventories. There is a divergence in expectations between the secondary market and the industry [1]. - **Associated Minerals Event**: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system, which may increase the ore - purchasing cost of the smelting end by about 5% - 10%. However, if the cost can be passed on, the impact on nickel cost will be limited [1]. - **Conflict Event**: Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal land occupation. The fine negotiation process and monopoly issues in the IMIP port may increase market concerns about resource supply [2]. - **Other Events**: Vale suspended its nickel - mining business at the beginning of 2026 but later resumed normal operations. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor leading enterprises and wet - process projects [2]. Market Quotes - **Shanghai Nickel**: Overseas news is emerging one after another, and there is a game between hedging and speculative positions. The price is affected by factors such as high inventory, profit - driven supply increase, and differences in policy expectations. It is recommended to use options for trading and pay attention to structural opportunities [3][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: It faces pressure from off - season inventory accumulation and weak supply - demand fundamentals. Cost logic supports the price, but the consumption side is weak. The price may fluctuate in the short term, waiting for policy - driven breakthroughs [5]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On January 30, China's social inventory increased by 6,622 tons to 69,238 tons, with an increase rate of 10.58%. LME nickel inventory increased by 2,556 tons to 286,284 tons [6]. - **New Energy**: On January 30, the inventory days of SMM's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of nickel sulfate were 5, 9, and 7 days respectively, with a month - on - month change of +0, +2, and +0 days. The precursor inventory increased by 0.1 days to 13.1 days, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.1 days to 7.0 days [6]. - **Nickel - Iron and Stainless Steel**: On January 29, the SMM's full - industry chain inventory of nickel - iron decreased by 10% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons. In December, the SMM's stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.48 million tons, with a year - on - month/ month - on - month change of +1%/ - 7%. On January 29, the social inventory of stainless steel was 952,674 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37% [6]. Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain products through the OSS platform [7]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026 [7]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [7]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [8]. - Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal land occupation, and the final fine amount may be lower than the initial estimate [8]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister said that the 2026 nickel production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the production may be around 250 - 260 million tons [8]. - The IMIP park in Indonesia is facing a monopoly investigation in port storage and logistics, but ship transportation is currently normal [8]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [9]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plans and budgets [9]. - Solvay Investment Group plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala in a few months [9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of Shanghai nickel, stainless steel, and related products, as well as price differentials and profit margins [11]. Graphs - The report includes a series of graphs showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless steel, and related products over different time periods [12][14][15][17][18][20][22][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, hold non - ferrous metals, oil and gas, and rare earths until the US economy faces a recession crisis. The long - end interest rate in the US is likely to rise, and the US economy may overheat. The macro market's political volatility will decline, and the trading will focus on economic and policy factors. Gold is expected to reach around $6,000 per ounce, and silver's high is expected to be around $120 per ounce. Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to Fed rate cuts and supply - demand gaps. The electrolytic aluminum market may have an upward trend, with a global supply shortage [10][35][98]. Summary by Directory Asset Allocation: Macroeconomic Contradictions and Allocation Strategies - The US Treasury drives currency and inflation. The continuous growth of US Treasury debt is backed by GDP. Since 2000, the US government's expenditure/GDP ratio has been rising, and the deficit rate is high. If the stock market has a crisis, it may bring opportunities for commodities. The sensitivity of non - ferrous metals to interest rates has increased since 2020, and the game between the Fed and global commodity inflation has intensified [4][13]. - In 2026, hold non - ferrous metals, oil and gas, and rare earths. The US economy may overheat, and the long - end interest rate is likely to rise. The macro market's political volatility will decline, and trading will focus on economic and policy factors [10][35]. Precious Metals: Where Are Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium Headed? - Gold is at a new starting point. Due to geopolitical risks and dovish Fed expectations, it is recommended to increase gold allocation, focus on unilateral long positions and call option strategies. For silver, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and consider long positions in the gold - silver ratio. In 2026, gold is expected to reach around $6,000 per ounce, and silver is expected to have a high of around $120 per ounce [29][35]. - Platinum and palladium are driven by the precious metals sector. They have strong follow - up elasticity but are also affected by the callback of gold and silver. The current upward trend of platinum is relatively healthy, and there is a possibility of a new high. Palladium may have supplementary upward momentum [36]. Copper: How to Choose the Trading Mode under the Background of Weak Reality and Strong Expectations? - In terms of trading, copper price volatility has declined, and the positions of SHFE and LME copper are at historical highs. The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the spot import loss has narrowed. Globally, the total copper inventory is at a historical high, and the LC spread has narrowed [37][44][48]. - The global copper mine supply in 2025 was lower than expected, and the increase in 2026 is limited. The supply disturbance has increased, mainly due to factors such as reduced ore grades, strikes, and geopolitics. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the refined copper output is expected to increase by 68.75 million tons in 2026 [62][66][69]. - In terms of consumption, high - quality consumption such as AI computing centers and new energy consumption contribute significantly to copper consumption. The "14th Five - Year Plan" in China supports power grid investment, which will drive copper consumption. Traditional industries also show an increase in copper consumption, but there are differences among countries [75][80][92]. - The global refined copper supply will shift from surplus in 2025 to a shortage in 2026. It is expected that the global copper supply will have a shortage of 197,000 tons in 2026, and the Chinese market will have a shortage of 191,500 tons. Copper prices are expected to remain firm in 2026 [95][96][98]. Electrolytic Aluminum: How to Grasp the Contradictions and Rhythms after the Abnormal Breakthrough? - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum market was in a state of shock convergence. In the fourth quarter, the stock - futures linkage opened up the upward elasticity. In 2026, it is expected that the market will continue the upward - looking trend, with a global supply shortage of 420,000 - 760,000 tons. The short - term rhythm needs to pay attention to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, and the risks include macro - recession and over - production in Indonesia [100][101][104]. - Currently, the Shanghai aluminum is in a high - level shock, with a neutral - strong position. The short - term micro - demand is weak, but the macro - risk preference is optimistic, and it has marginal upward momentum [110]. Over - the - Counter Options: How to Use Option Hedging Tools under High Volatility and High Prices? - For long positions, when the price is high, consider replacing with in - the - money call options to retain the upside potential and control the maximum drawdown. You can also use spread options to optimize costs with a capped upside [118][122]. - For selling hedging of inventory, consider buying put collar options to optimize the hedging cost, limit inventory price fluctuations between $100,000 - $120,000, and receive an option premium of $150 per ton [126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on urea is a callback. The macro sentiment has weakened, and the small - scale state reserve release of urea has sent a signal to suppress speculation, so both futures and spot prices are expected to decline in the short term. However, due to the strong expectation of the agricultural demand peak season in 2026, the prices are expected to be stronger in the medium term [2]. - For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, mainly the policy pressure line, and the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton [2]. - The recommended strategies are: short - term weakness and medium - term strength. It is advisable to observe the spot trading volume and go long on dips. The upper pressure for the 05 contract is 1,830 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to take a long position in the positive spread on dips in the medium term; there is no cross - variety strategy for now [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Production Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. The total new production capacity in 2024 was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025 it was 6.64 million tons. In 2026, the planned new production capacity is 6.51 million tons [22]. - **Production**: In the week from January 22 - 28, 2026, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4549 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,100 tons or 2.18%. Next week, the weekly output of Chinese urea is expected to be around 1.47 million tons, with a slight increase. The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily urea output remains at a high level [2][25]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has risen. For example, in the fixed - bed factories in Shanxi, the cash - flow cost and full cost have increased compared with the previous period [27]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state [32]. 3.2 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. The demand for different crops in different regions has different seasonal characteristics [44][45][47]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers show certain trends over time [51][52][53][54]. - **Melamine**: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine also have their own trends [55][56][57]. - **Real Estate - Related**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [58]. 3.3 Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 944,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,100 tons or 0.12%. As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 144,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons or 7.46% [2][65]. 3.4 International Market - The report presents the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [68][69][70][71][72].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 工业硅：上游减产发酵，震荡偏强 2026 年 02 月 01 日 多晶硅：关注现货实际成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面震荡偏强，部分资金交易上游工厂减产的预期，周五盘面收于 8850 元/吨。现货市场价格持稳，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8700 元/吨（环比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 9050 元/吨 (环比+100)。 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面震荡偏强，现货价格持平；多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，现货报价或有松动 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存去库；多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端，上游或大幅减产。据咨询商统计，本周新疆地区开工减少，系新疆某工厂因部分因素大 面积停炉，整体周产环减。具体而言，西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000- 10500 元/吨(折盘面)，枯水期当地开工目前已降至极低位置。新疆地区部分工厂因原料问题亦有减产驱动， 将带来较明显的供给收缩。库存角度，SMM 统计本周社会库存累库 0.2 万吨，厂库库存累库 0.41 万吨，整 体行 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 1 日 棉花：维持震荡偏强走势 20260201 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 国内棉花期货维持偏强震荡的走势，主要受到整体商品市场情绪变化影响，周三受商品情绪乐观情绪 推动再次上冲至 15000 元/吨附近，但是之后随着商品情绪转弱而回落；从基本面来看，近期国内棉花市 场还是缺乏新的驱动。当前国内棉花供应仍充足，而下游的需求处于淡季，下游追高意愿不强，不过回调 的时候点价盘对郑棉期货构成一定支撑；另外，由于外盘近月合约很弱且人民币坚挺，内外棉价差过大令 市场对棉花和棉纱进口增加的担忧依然存在，也继续限制郑棉期价的上涨。关于 2026 年新疆棉花种植面 积下降的预期，阶段性来看也算是交易充分，我们还是倾向于到春节后结合需求情况再去交易未来三年的 目标价格补贴政策和新年度的产量或时间点上更好。维持郑棉期货震荡偏强的判断。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 截至 1 月 30 日当周，ICE 棉花期货波动加大，周一受技术性抛压影响 ICE 棉花跌破 63 美分/磅 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场持稳运行。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4725元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势延续稳定；70g 木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4459元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势由涨转稳。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，纸企出货价格基本稳定，部 分出版订单提货尚未结束，个别成交存在商谈空间；第二，周内华南地区个别产线停机，行业供给有所减量，但部分纸企库存压力仍存；第 三，临近春节，下游订单有限，备货热情一般，经销商多数稳价出货；第四，上游木浆价格走势偏弱，成本面对双胶纸支 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated significantly. Mid - week, aluminum led the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but prices fell in the second half of the week due to the decline of the US stock market and concerns about the overseas AI bubble. The short - term micro - demand for aluminum is still weak, and the dominant factors for non - ferrous metals are capital preference and overseas macro narratives [3]. - Alumina follows the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector, with its price trend converging in a volatile manner. The pattern of oversupply, inventory build - up, and cost collapse remains unchanged, and the mid - term strategy is to short on rallies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Mid - week, aluminum led the non - ferrous sector, with the absolute price breaking historical highs, likely due to stock - futures linkage and ETF market arbitrage. In the second half of the week, prices dropped with the decline of the US stock market and concerns about the overseas AI bubble. In the Friday night session, the decline was relatively moderate [3]. - **Micro - demand**: As of January 29, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 32,000 tons to 800,000 tons compared with last week. As of January 30, the spot discount in East China and South China widened significantly. The weekly output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils continued to decline, and the cumulative year - to - date output in 2026 decreased by 0.15%. The operating rate of aluminum profiles also declined, and the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to fall to a record low [3]. 3.2 Alumina - **Price and Inventory**: Alumina prices fluctuated and converged. On Friday night, prices rose, possibly due to position - closing in other sectors and short - covering in the AO variety. As of January 30, the spot price showed a mild decline, and the inventory continued to build up. The ALD full - scale social inventory reached 5.114 million tons on January 29, an increase of 55,000 tons from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Cost**: The weekly output of alumina decreased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north and south entered the maintenance period this week, and some enterprises planned to cut production in February to reduce supply pressure. Low - cost imported ore will arrive at ports in mid - to - late February, and some enterprises plan to adjust the ore application ratio to control costs [4]. 3.3 Trading - **Price Difference**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina weakened this week. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 150 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from - 153 yuan/ton to - 207 yuan/ton [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased significantly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the trading volume increased slightly [14]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of the main Shanghai aluminum contract declined, and that of alumina decreased slightly and was at a historically low level [20]. 3.4 Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of January 30, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 309,300 tons compared with last week. As of December, the port inventory and port inventory days of Chinese bauxite showed an increase. The bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises also increased in December. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia decreased slightly, while the sea - floating inventory increased slightly. The shipping volume from different ports showed a differentiated trend, and the arrival volume increased [25][30][31]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory of alumina continued to build up, with an increase of 78,000 tons compared with last week. The factory inventory decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, port inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of January 29, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 32,000 tons to 800,000 tons, showing a build - up this week [54]. - **Processed Products**: The spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods increased this week. As of December, the finished - product and raw - material inventory ratios of SMM aluminum profiles increased slightly, while the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly [58][61]. 3.5 Production - **Bauxite**: In December, the domestic bauxite supply increased slightly. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output increased slightly. Imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. The production of bauxite in different provinces showed a differentiated trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [66][67]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina remained stable. As of January 30, the national operating capacity of alumina was 94.1 million tons, a decrease of 400,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from the previous week. The supply - side situation remained loose [72]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. As of January 29, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 858,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous week. The proportion of molten aluminum decreased seasonally [78]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods increased by 2,800 tons this week, the output of aluminum rods decreased by 15,800 tons, and the output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased by 1,400 tons. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 1.5%, and the operating rates of different sectors such as aluminum plates, strips, and foils also declined [84][85]. 3.6 Profit - **Alumina**: In December, the profit of alumina continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union caliber was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while that in Guangxi was relatively better [92]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [107]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 50 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [108]. 3.7 Consumption - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed. In December 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products decreased slightly, by 30,000 tons compared with the previous month. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed a differentiated trend [117][119][121]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing was at a low level, and the monthly output of automobiles decreased compared with the previous month [122].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Data Weekly Report [1] - Author: He Xiaoqin (Senior Analyst), Qian Jiayin (Contact) from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: February 1, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain [15] - Before the Spring Festival, the high - level volatility of PX increases, with limited downside space and a reverse spread of monthly differences. The PTA unilateral trend is strong before the holiday, with a 5 - 9 monthly difference reverse spread. MEG has a clear lower - level support, with limited upside rebound space [3][4][5] Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX monthly spread weakens, with PX internal and external markets generally rising first and then falling, and PXN回调. The gasoline inventory continues to rise, the aromatics blending oil demand is weak, and the aromatics blending oil economy weakens [22][23][28] - The PX - MX spread reached a high of 170 US dollars/ton during the week, and the Asian MX blending oil economy decreased significantly. The toluene disproportionation unit profit improved significantly [41][50] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Domestic production: The domestic production start - up rate is at a historical high. The 800,000 - ton PX unit of Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the domestic unit start - up rate rose to 89.2%. The December PX domestic production was 3.46 million tons [56][61] - Import: In December, the import volume was 930,000 tons. The Asian PX unit start - up rate this week was 81.2% (+0.2%). In November, PX imports from South Korea and Japan continued to increase, while those from Brunei decreased [63] - Inventory: In December, the Longzhong PX inventory was 4.45 million tons (+6) [89] PTA Valuation and Profit - The basis and monthly spread are weak. The PTA price has risen sharply, the basis has increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is weak due to increased supply pressure [96][97][101] - The PTA processing fee has been significantly repaired. The PTA spot processing fee has rebounded to 398 yuan/ton, and the polyester link profit is compressed by the upstream [105][106] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The start - up rate remains at 76.6% without significant change. The 1 - million - ton unit of Sichuan Energy Investment recently restarted, the 2.5 - million - ton unit of Dushan Energy Phase II is expected to be overhauled at the end of January, and the 1.25 - million - ton unit of Zhuhai Ineos is shut down for maintenance [108] - Demand: The terminal orders of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving show differentiation. Export orders are good, but some re - flow orders have not increased significantly. Enterprises are cautious about pre - holiday stockpiling, and most enterprises have taken holidays [4] - Inventory: The total inventory is at a low level, and the inventory accumulation intensity will be relatively large in February [128] MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral price is in a volatile market. The relative valuation continues to decline, and Satellite Petrochemical will switch to produce plastics in February [148][154] - The profit of coal - based units is - 110 yuan/ton (+20). Oil - based units continue to be in a loss pattern, with the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol at - 1217 yuan/ton (-160), the profit of externally purchased ethylene - based ethylene glycol at - 187 yuan/ton (+30), the MTO profit at - 1601 (+20), and the profit of ethane cracking - based ethylene glycol at 366 (+15) [157] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The start - up rate of units has risen to 74.4% (+1.3%). The 500,000 - ton unit of Sinochem Quanzhou and the 500,000 - ton unit of Ningbo Fude have restarted. From January to February, the ethylene glycol import volume will remain at a high level, with a monthly average of over 700,000 tons [166] - Inventory: Attention should be paid to the changes in units in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan. The port inventory data in East China is provided [170][176] Polyester Segment Start - up - The polyester start - up rate is 84.2% (-1.5%). Multiple sets of units have been overhauled, restarted, and some unit loads have been adjusted. The comprehensive polyester load has decreased. It is expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March [182][185] Inventory - The inventory has increased slightly, but the pressure is not great [190][192] Export - From January to December, the total polyester export volume was 14.61 million tons, +13.5%. The total export volume of polyester filament was 4.29 million tons, +10.6%; the total export volume of polyester bottle chips was 6.46 million tons, +10.1%; the total export volume of polyester chips was 1.34 million tons, +21%; the total export volume of polyester staple fiber was 1.7 million tons, +28.2%; the total export volume of polyester film was 0.82 million tons, +15.5% [193] Profit - The losses of filament factories have expanded, while the profits of staple fiber and bottle chips are acceptable [195] Terminal: Weaving, Textile and Apparel Start - up - The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 34% (-15%), and the start - up rate of texturing machines is 53% (-13%). Downstream texturing and weaving enterprises have entered the Spring Festival holiday season [217][219] Orders - Downstream orders are seasonally weak overall, but export orders are eye - catching, especially orders from the United States. Some enterprises reported that recent US clothing orders increased by 14% year - on - year, and Southeast Asian orders have also returned, but the overall order volume has not increased significantly [219] Inventory - The finished product inventory has decreased, and the grey fabric inventory has accumulated again. Weaving enterprises have stocked raw materials until the end of January [220][221] Retail and Export - China's textile and clothing retail: From January to December, it was 135.97 billion yuan, +3.5% [224] - China's textile and clothing export: From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 137.8 billion US dollars, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [230] - Overseas textile and clothing retail: The US and European clothing retail data have risen strongly. In October, US retail was 19.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. In 2025 from January to October, US clothing retail was 180 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In December, UK retail was 6.766 billion pounds, with a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to December, UK retail was 50.6 billion pounds, with a year - on - year increase of 6.23% [234][238] - Overseas textile and clothing inventory: It has declined slightly month - on - month [240]