Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain strong, with the iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon markets likely to follow the trend of steel in the short term, and all are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and market sentiment [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures continued to strengthen. Thread apparent demand decreased month - on - month, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly accumulated. Hot - rolled coil demand remained resilient, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly decreased [2] - Pig iron production increased and remained at a high level. Under the low - inventory pattern, the negative feedback pressure in the off - season was not significant. In June, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. Domestic demand remained weak overall, while exports remained relatively high [2] - Multiple departments called for "anti - involution", and the Yajiang project improved demand expectations. Market sentiment was optimistic, and industrial products at low levels all rose. The futures market is expected to remain strong [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures continued to rebound, and the basis narrowed at a low level recently. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month this period, stronger than the same period last year. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions increased significantly, while shipments from Australia decreased [3] - China's port arrivals declined from a high level this period, and there was no obvious pressure on port inventory accumulation in the short term. On the demand side, steel mills had no motivation to cut production in the short term, and pig iron production rebounded more than expected last week [3] - At the macro level, the "anti - involution" and the upcoming important meeting boosted market sentiment, and the Yajiang project strengthened market expectations for future major projects. It is expected that iron ore will be strong in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices rose significantly during the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, and coking profits are meager. Coking daily production slightly increased after continuous decline. Coke inventory decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness increased [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and downstream pig iron production remains at a high level in the off - season. The "anti - involution" currently has limited impact on the coke industry. The coke futures price is at a premium and is expected to continue to rise in the short term [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The output of coking coal mines slightly decreased, the spot auction market improved, transaction prices continued to rise, and terminal inventory increased [6] - Total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month, and production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue to destock in the short term. The "anti - involution" currently has limited impact on the coking coal industry. The coking coal futures price is at a premium and is expected to continue to rise in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices opened higher and then slightly adjusted. Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level decreased, the weekly production recovery rate was slow, and both futures and spot demand improved. It is judged that inventory will mainly continue to decline [7] - In the long - term, manganese ore inventory is gradually increasing, which exerts great pressure on prices. In the short - term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines' willingness to support prices has increased. Spot manganese ore prices have risen following the futures market. Affected by the "anti - involution", market expectations for demand - side policies have increased. Silicon manganese mainly follows the trend of thread, with a relatively small increase [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices opened higher. Pig iron production increased to over 242. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand was acceptable [8] - Ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, market trading volume was average, and on - balance inventory decreased fluctuantly. Affected by the "anti - involution", market expectations for demand - side policies have increased. Ferrosilicon mainly follows the trend of thread, with a relatively weak increase [8]

| | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月21日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 烧碱 | な女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | РХ | 女女女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 短纤 | な女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 文文文 纯碱 | | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | な女女 | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 受政策端利好消息提振，日内甲醇盘面偏强运行。进口到港量大幅回升,港口快速累库 ...

| 能源 日报 | /// > 国経期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年07月21日 | 操作评级 | | | | 高明宇 首席分析师 | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | | F0302201 Z0012038 | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | 李祖智 中级分析师 | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | | F3063857 Z0016599 | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价反弹,SC09合约日内涨2.57%。伊拉克能源官员声明称近期无人机袭击已导致库尔德斯坦无油产 量减少14-15万桶/天，欧盟通过第18轮对俄罗斯能源制裁方案,供应担忧有所升温。但考虑到近期原油现货升 贴水及月差均未进一步走强,或显示强现实因素对油价的上行驱动减弱,7月贸易战的利空风险依然存在，油价 短期或难以突破震荡格局。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油 ...

两缔期货和期权将于7月22日在郑州商品交易所上市，我国基础化工品期货再添新成员。 一、丙烯行业背景: 景气下行、结构行过剩 安如泰山 信守承诺 丙烯期货上市策略前瞻 化工新品种 过去五年我国丙烯产能快速扩张，2020年到2024年，五年间我国丙烯产能增加2912万吨，年复合增速 14.3%。2020-2024年中国丙烯消费年均复合增长率为8.5%，远低于丙烯产能年均增达，供需增速差的存在，导致 两烯市场供需矛盾呈现明显的加剧之势，丙烯行业景气下行，行业呈结构性过剩的格局。 二、上半年运行情况:供需失衡、价格下跌 图 1: 中国丙烷、混烷脱氢装置开工率及毛利对比 资料来源：卓创资讯，国投期货 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 上半年丙烯面临供应、需求、成本三方面压力,导致价格持续下行。原料端原油和丙烷价格下跌,成本支 撑下滑。供应端，多套新装置投产，带动产量快速增长。据统计，上半年国内丙烯新增产能548.5万吨，国内丙 烯行业总产能达到7574.8万吨。1-6月份国内丙烯总产量3057.9万吨，同比增长13.16%。PDH装置上半年阶段性的 开工率持续下滑，5月中旬以后开工有所提升，但同比仍然明显较低,尽管如此， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report From July 14th to July 18th, the US inflation data was mixed, with the CPI in June higher than expected and the PPI lower than expected. The independence of the Federal Reserve attracted market attention, and the US dollar index continued to rise weekly. Globally, stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. In China, exports increased year - on - year in June, imports turned positive, and new social financing and RMB loans increased year - on - year. The gap between M2 and M1 narrowed. The stock, bond, and commodity markets all rose weekly. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds. The market has high expectations for the industry structural optimization brought by the "anti - involution" policy, and the atmosphere in the risk - asset market is positive. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in policy expectations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance - **Global Stock Market**: Most global major stock markets rose. Asia - Pacific markets led the gains, European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index remained low weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: The impact of tariffs on US inflation was reflected in the data. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds showed a divergent trend. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 1BP weekly to 4.44%, and the bond market declined weekly. Globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: The US economy remained resilient, the US dollar index rose weekly by 0.60%, most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate declined slightly [16]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The EU's new round of sanctions on Russia lowered the price cap on Russian oil, causing international oil prices to decline weekly. The prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals rose, and precious metals fluctuated at high levels [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: Policy expectations continued to ferment, and major A - share broad - based indexes generally rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. Growth - style stocks performed prominently. Among sectors, communication and medicine led the gains, while comprehensive finance and real estate underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% weekly [21]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 120.11 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively stable, and the bond market fluctuated slightly upward weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [22]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market continued to rise weekly. Among major commodity sectors, oils and fats led the gains [23]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook The market has strong expectations for the industry structural optimization brought by the "anti - involution" policy, and the atmosphere in the risk - asset market is currently positive. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in policy expectations [24].

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ななな | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 能 | な☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 文☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜增仓拉涨至7.97万,国内工业品交投气氛感染沪铜,同时周末国内社库去库快,SMM社库周一大减2.47 万吨至11.86万吨；钢联社库口径则减少1.89万吨在12.55 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold and silver are both given a ★★★ rating, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities at present [1] Group 2: Core Views - Today, precious metals are oscillating with a slight upward trend. Recently, global geopolitical risks have cooled down, risk sentiment is positive, the US economy is resilient, and a work plan for stabilizing growth in key industries such as non-ferrous metals in China is about to be introduced. Industrial products are rising excitedly in rotation, there is insufficient upward driving force for gold, and there is still room for the gold-silver ratio to decline. The uncertainty before the deadline of US tariff policy remains high, risk sentiment is prone to fluctuations, and precious metals are mainly in an oscillating and wait-and-see state [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Content Tariff - The US Commerce Secretary is confident of reaching an agreement with the EU, and small countries need to pay a 10% benchmark tariff starting from August 1st. The EU is preparing a retaliatory plan under the tough US trade stance. Trump has increased pressure on the EU, with the minimum tariff possibly rising to 15%-20%. The US-Japan trade agreement is still within the "realm of possibility", and the Pakistani Finance Minister is in the US to promote the signing of a trade agreement [2] Fed - Trump believes that high interest rates are "killing the real estate market" and has reiterated that interest rates should be lowered to 1%. An insider said that Treasury Secretary Bessent advised Trump not to remove Powell. Waller refused to comment on whether he would hold a different opinion at the July meeting and said he would accept if the president asked him to be the Fed Chairman. Goolsbee is "slightly worried" that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation and expects interest rates to drop significantly in the next year [2] Iran Nuclear Negotiations - Iran has agreed to hold a new round of negotiations with three European countries at the deputy foreign minister level in Istanbul on the 25th. Putin met with a senior advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader to discuss the Iran nuclear issue. Trump reiterated that all three Iranian nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. Currently, the market has digested the impact of the tariff issue. The US - EU tariff problem remains intense, and there are positive signals from trade agreements after the visit to Japan. The market shows no concern about the potential dollar liquidity pressure from Powell's situation and US fiscal debt issuance. With stable external macro - liquidity, the market has strong expectations for China's "expanding domestic demand" and "anti - involution" policies, and the short - term risk preference is expected to remain oscillating strongly, waiting for clearer macro - policies [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 1.33% last week. Agricultural products and precious metals had larger increases of 1.44% and 1.29% respectively, while black, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous metals rose 1.06%, 0.69%, and 0.37% respectively. The inflow of funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][5] - **Individual Varieties**: Among individual varieties, crude oil, rapeseed meal, and industrial silicon had the highest increases of 3.52%, 3.38%, and 3.33% respectively. LPG, urea, and lead had larger declines of 2.48%, 1.58%, and 1.49% respectively [1][5] 3.2 Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: The market continued its strong trend, with silver performing prominently. Silver futures rose more than gold due to the dollar's decline, increased macro - easing expectations, and the improvement of industrial products' prices boosting silver's industrial attributes. Gold maintained a high - level oscillation supported by safe - haven demand and weak inflation data, benefiting from the continuous expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: They continued the oscillating and strengthening pattern. Main varieties like copper and aluminum rebounded slightly due to low inventory and overseas supply disruptions. The demand for non - ferrous metals is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, and the electrolytic copper market still has medium - term support [2] - **Black Metals**: Steel prices rebounded significantly under cost support and production - limit rumors. Iron ore and coking coal prices also strengthened. The market's pessimistic sentiment about steel fundamentals has eased, although the actual terminal demand still needs further observation [2] - **Energy**: Crude oil prices rose slightly, supported by geopolitical tensions (especially in the Middle East) and the demand during the summer travel season. Concerns about global supply tightening and the decline in US crude oil inventories further promoted the stabilization and recovery of oil prices. Domestic energy varieties such as fuel oil and crude oil futures continued to rebound [3] - **Chemicals**: The market was generally firm, and some varieties continued to recover. The stabilization of crude oil at the cost end drove the sentiment of the entire chemical industry to improve. Products like PVC and PTA benefited from downstream replenishment and the decline in industry operating rates, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not fully improved, and short - term price fluctuations are still uncertain [3] - **Agricultural Products**: They rose slightly this week. Rapeseed meal rebounded due to the relief of import pressure and the decline in domestic oil mill operations. The oil and fat sector oscillated at a high level under international market influence. Corn and wheat stopped falling and rebounded due to the relief of inventory pressure and weather speculation. Policy support for food security and planting structure adjustment will continue to affect the market [3] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with an average return of around 0.4%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 1,549.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.82%. The total trading volume decreased by 34.33% [34] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a return of 0.39%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 2.43%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of - 0.45%, and the silver fund had a return of 1.81%. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 1,617.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.59%, and the total trading volume decreased by 16.30% [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the current market situation and future expectations [2][3][4] - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as international policies, economic data, supply and demand relationships, and seasonal patterns, and the trends of different products vary [15][16][20] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices declined, with Brent 09 contract down 1.98% and SC09 contract up 2.3%. After the EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia, oil prices first rose and then fell. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the oil price trend has shifted from strong to volatile [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Under the OPEC+ production increase path, there is an expected increase in the supply of high - sulfur heavy resources. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel oil producing areas is limited, and demand lacks drive. FU cracking continues to decline. LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than that of SC since mid - July, and its cracking has also declined [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, refinery production is expected to decline significantly compared to July. Social inventory has slightly increased, while factory inventory has decreased significantly. Overall, supply increase resilience needs to be observed, demand remains weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices, with the BU price showing an upward trend [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists, and overseas prices continue to fluctuate weakly. Import costs have declined, but PDH margins remain stable. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the domestic gas price is under pressure at the top. The market is in a summer off - season pattern, and the futures price fluctuates weakly [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The recent macro - sentiment is positive, and precious metals are relatively stable. Due to high uncertainty in US tariff policies, precious metals are mainly in a volatile state, and the gold - silver ratio still has room to decline [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Last Friday, LME copper rose close to $9,800, and SHFE copper's main contract shifted to 2509. The domestic copper industry's capacity regulation space is limited. The previous 2508 option portfolio expired this week [4] - **Aluminum**: Affected by the news of the upcoming ten - key - industry growth - stabilization plan, non - ferrous metals are generally strong. Aluminum ingot and billet inventory accumulation is not smooth, and SHFE aluminum may maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term [5] - **Zinc**: Black prices have rebounded, and the market sentiment has improved. The import window is closed, and the external market drives the internal market up. However, downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and supply is expected to increase. The SHFE zinc term structure has flattened, and it is still considered a rebound - under - pressure situation [8] - **Lead**: Both domestic and foreign inventories have increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries is affected by tariffs. The price has declined. However, the cost support is strong. The price has stopped falling at 16,800 yuan/ton and may face resistance at the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel has rebounded, and the market trading is active. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. Technically, SHFE nickel still has room to rebound, and short - selling opportunities are awaited [10] - **Tin**: LME tin has been volatile, and SHFE tin is supported at 260,000 yuan. The main contract has shifted to 2509. Social inventory has increased. High - level short positions from the previous period are held [11] - **Other Metal - related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows SHFE aluminum and is in a strong - volatile state, but trading is inactive. Despite weak industrial demand, scrap aluminum supply is tight, and it may be more resilient than aluminum prices [6] - **Alumina**: On Friday night, alumina prices rose sharply. Supply - side policy expectations have strengthened, but domestic operating capacity has reached a historical high, and there is a possibility of mine restart in Guinea. After the sharp rise driven by expectations, there is a risk of correction [7] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: As of July 15, about 7% of US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought. The US - India trade agreement and Indonesia's potential B50 biodiesel plan have boosted US agricultural product prices. In China, oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean - meal inventory is increasing. The price of soybean meal is mainly guided by US soybean - producing area weather [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil)**: Palm oil has risen strongly, and soybean oil has followed. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending ratio and the competitiveness of its palm oil in the export market have pushed up prices. Long - term, a long - at - low strategy is recommended for vegetable oils [37] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed exports may be affected by Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to be volatile in the short term, and factors such as weather, policies, and biodiesel should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn rose on Friday night. Cofco's increased auctions have affected market expectations, and the auction success rate of US - imported corn was low. Dalian corn futures may continue to bottom - oscillate [40] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig prices have rebounded slightly. However, the overall supply is abundant in the medium - term, and the industry can participate in short - hedging at high prices [41] - **Eggs**: Large - sized egg prices have strengthened slightly, while small - sized egg prices have weakened. Cold - storage eggs are being released, suppressing price increases. Long - term, the egg - price cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has risen continuously, but there are concerns about a potential short - squeeze. Pure - cotton yarn prices have increased, but downstream procurement is still cautious. Attention should be paid to the impact of the textile - industry growth - stabilization plan [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar is in a downward trend, and the Brazilian production outlook is negative. In China, sugar imports are low, and domestic sugar sales are fast. The uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased, and sugar prices are expected to be volatile [44] - **Apples**: Apple futures are volatile. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and prices have increased year - on - year. The market is focused on new - season yield estimates, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [45] - **Wood and Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood futures have rebounded significantly. Spot prices are stable, and due to low inventory and historical - low prices, there is an expectation of price increase. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the upward momentum is insufficient [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures have continued to rise. Port inventory has decreased, but domestic imports are still high. Demand is in the traditional off - season, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares have increased in volume and oscillated higher. US economic data has been positive, and policies have boosted market risk appetite. Foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese economy, and a strategy of increasing technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures have oscillated. The market has fully priced in the expectation of monetary easing. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is still strong, and most airlines may raise prices in early August. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [20] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Methanol imports have increased significantly, and port inventory has accumulated rapidly. Domestic producers are planning autumn maintenance, but some may postpone it due to good profits. Demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream - device changes [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Domestic pure - benzene production has increased slightly, and port supply is abundant. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, but pressure in the fourth quarter. A month - spread band - trading strategy is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Main - port inventory has increased significantly, and the basis has weakened, dragging down the futures market [27] - **Polypropylene and Polyethylene**: The cost - side oil price is volatile. Polyethylene supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Polypropylene has some support from ongoing maintenance, but downstream demand is still sluggish [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Affected by the news of backward - capacity elimination, PVC has shown a strong trend. Caustic soda is also strong, but there are concerns about long - term supply increases and weak downstream acceptance [29] - **PX and PTA**: PTA's processing margin is low, and demand is weak, which drags down PX. There are expectations of PTA processing - margin repair [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production has declined, and port inventory has decreased. The price has strengthened, and a short - term long - position strategy is recommended [31] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chips**: Short - fiber production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. Bottle - grade chips production has decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. The short - fiber spot processing margin has repaired, while the bottle - grade chips processing margin has oscillated [32]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/ bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/ bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, implying a bullish/ bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆★, indicating a short - term balance in the bullish/ bearish trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balance in the bullish/ bearish trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is still dominated by the "anti - involution" concept, and substantial policy measures are yet to be implemented. After a significant rebound, the fluctuations of relevant varieties have intensified, and the rhythm may be repeated. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1] - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to follow the fluctuations of finished steel products, with attention to the risk of amplified fluctuations [2] - Coke and coking coal are expected to follow the trend of steel products and may maintain an upward trend in the short term [3][5] - Silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy follow the trend of thread steel, but their price increases are relatively weak [6][7] Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures rose and then fell, continuing to rebound. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel dropped significantly, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils slightly rebounded, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly decreased. Iron - making molten iron production increased and remained at a high level. With low inventory, the market's negative feedback pressure is small [1] - In June, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. Domestic demand remained weak overall, while exports remained at a relatively high level [1] Iron Ore - On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore decreased slightly month - on - month, and the domestic arrival volume was at a high level, with a possible phased decline later. Port inventory decreased under high - throughput conditions and there was no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory in the short term [2] - On the demand side, terminal demand was weak during the off - season. Steel mills had profits and lacked the motivation for active production cuts. Iron - making molten iron production resumed this week and could remain at a relatively high level in the short term [2] Coke - The first round of price increases for coking was fully implemented, and there were still expectations of further price increases. Profits were meager, and daily coking production slightly increased after a continuous decline. Overall coke inventory slightly decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders increased [3] Coking Coal - The output of coking coal mines slightly decreased, the spot auction market improved, transaction prices continued to rise, and terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month, and production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. There was a high probability of continuous inventory reduction in the short term [5] Silicon Manganese - Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level decreased, but weekly production began to rebound, and the inventory reduction rate was likely to decline. In the long - term, manganese ore inventory fluctuated and increased. In the short - term, the current inventory level was low, and the price - holding intention of manganese mines increased [6] Silicon Ferroalloy - Iron - making molten iron production increased to over 242. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand remained stable at a high level. Overall demand was okay. Silicon ferroalloy supply continued to decline, market transaction levels were average, on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decrease, but production - end inventory began to increase, mainly due to the decrease in warehouse - receipt inventory [7]