Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the energy market, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas. It assesses the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and investment opportunities in each sector [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC08 contract up 1.76%. The US EIA inventory unexpectedly increased by 712,800 barrels, and OPEC+ continued its rapid production increase strategy, strengthening the supply-demand loosening expectation, especially in the fourth quarter. However, in the third quarter, oil consumption during the peak season supports physical crude oil purchases, and the supply disruption of European diesel leads to expectations of refining profit recovery. The final outcome of the US reciprocal tariffs, postponed to August 1st, is likely to be weaker than in early April. The Middle East geopolitical risks related to the Iran nuclear dispute remain. The report maintains a view that crude oil prices will rise from the bottom and fluctuate strongly in the third quarter, and short-selling strategies should be considered after the peak season's impact weakens [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the rise in oil futures, followed by LU, while FU was relatively weak. For high-sulfur fuel oil, demand from ship bunkering and deep processing was low, and the summer power generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa did not boost it. The supply risk was removed as the Middle East conflict eased, and both the single price and crack spread of FU continued to weaken. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strong coking profit led to limited short-term supply pressure due to the diversion effect, and the strengthening of the Singapore diesel crack spread since late June also provided some support. However, the demand lacked a clear driver, and LU's trend mainly followed crude oil, with the short-term crack spread expected to fluctuate [2]. Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June, with a stocking increase of 24,000 tons. The unplanned increase was the key variable that broke the asphalt destocking pattern. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The continuous high temperature and increased rainfall in many places are expected to delay the overall demand recovery. The sales volume of road rollers increased significantly year-on-year from January to May, and the third quarter is a crucial observation window for asphalt demand recovery. Currently, the single price trend of asphalt mainly follows crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit the upside space of BU [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international market supply is generally loose, and although crude oil has strengthened recently, the LPG price has remained stable. Last week, new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs continued to repair the PDH gross profit. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound rhythm of PDH operating rates. The supply pressure persists in summer, and the decline in import costs limits the upward momentum of the futures price, maintaining a weak and fluctuating trend [4].

| | | 日内价格上行。焦化有提涨预期，利润微薄，焦化日产较年内高位持续回落。焦炭整体库存持续下降，贸易商采购意愿稍有改 善，钢厂采购也略有改善。整体来看，碳元素供应端仍较充裕，下游铁水淡季仍保持较高水平，"反内卷"目前对焦炭行业影 响有限。焦炭盘面维持升水，在库存压力下，焦炭盘面上方压力较大。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年07月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 證硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gt ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月09日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | 女女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，棉花现货交投大多冷清：基差总体持稳，纯棉纱成交依旧偏清淡，下游需求仍旧不足，纺企开机继续下 行，纺企成品库存继续上升，库存压力有所显现。截至6月15号。棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5月底减少33.18万吨，消化仍 然良好，棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。宏观上，美国和越南达成贸易协议，美国将对进口越 ...

★美国商务部长卢特尼克:预计在未来两天内将再发出15到20封关税信件；铜关税将于7月下旬或8月1日实 施,欧盟已表示将开放市场，制药、半导体关税研究将于月底完成。 ★美国财长贝森特:截至目前已收取1000亿美元关税,预计到年底关税收入可能增加至3000亿美元。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 | Millio | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月09日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属回落。上周美国非农数据超预期令市场放弃对7月降息押注，市场焦点转向即将到期的美国关税 政策、特朗普对部分国家加征关税但将最后期限延长至8月1日给各方谈 ...

【铝&氧化铝&铝合金】 今日沪铝震荡，华东现货贴水维持在50元。近期产业淡季负反馈显现，小幅累库，沪铝指数持仓处于近年高位 体现市场分歧大，美国关税政策调整风险下关注多头是否会持续减仓带来阶段性调整。铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波 动，保太ADC12报价稳定在19500元。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元以上但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差维 持在400-500元波动，价差如有扩大考虑多AD空AL个入，此外关注基差机会。近期过剩行业反内卷题材带动氧化 铝期现货上调，今日各地现货指数继续上调10-20元,上期所仓单库存极低需要甚差走低吸引仓单库存流入,期 货月差拉大暂震荡偏强，但国内氧化铝运行产能回升至历史高位，过剩前景下上方空间或有限。 【锌】 关税影响反复，资金倾向落袋为安，进一步入场偏谨慎,日内沪锌加权持仓再降3271手至25万手，资金拥挤度 继续下降，整体暂承压于60日均线。SMMO#锌均价较近月盘面实时升水50元/吨，收盘价07合约较08合约低20元/ 吨,前期Back结构明显走平,侧面印证基本面供增需弱。下游高价接货意愿不足,现货交投清淡。锌延续反弹 空配思路不改。 | | 操作评级 | 2025年07 ...

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2] - The strategy views and investment logics in the report are based on the publicly released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change compared to the closing price of the previous Friday [2] Market Data Commodities - Positive weekly changes were seen in螺纹钢 (2.57%), 铁矿石 (2.23%), 生猪 (2.14%), 白银 (1.44%), 黄金 (1.39%), 棕榈油 (1.15%), 原油 (1.00%), 焦炭 (0.81%), 玻璃 (0.69%), 豆粕 (0.27%), 铝 (0.27%), 甲醇 (0.25%), and 乙二醇 (0.14%) - Negative weekly changes were observed in 铜 (-0.24%), PVC (-0.26%), 玉米 (-1.30%), and PTA (-1.42%) [3] A - shares - Positive weekly changes were recorded in 沪深300 (1.54%), 上证50 (1.21%), and 中证500 (0.81%) [3] Overseas Stocks - Positive weekly changes were seen in 标普500 (1.72%), 纳斯达克指数 (1.62%), and 富时100 (0.27%) - Negative weekly changes were observed in 法国CAC40 (-0.85%), 日经225 (-1.52%), and 恒生指数 (-0.28%) [3][4] Bonds - Negative weekly changes were recorded in 中国国债10 - year (-0.06%), 中国国债2 - year (-0.85%), and 中国国债5 - year (-1.52%) [4] Foreign Exchange - Negative weekly changes were observed in 欧元兑美元 (-0.48%), 美元中间价 (-0.91%), and 美元指数 (-1.49%) [4] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: 6 - month PMI data improved marginally; last week's net financing purchase funds continued to increase; the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting emphasized "anti - involution" in the construction of a unified market, raising expectations for a new round of supply - side reform; industrial shareholder shareholding reductions increased while company buybacks significantly increased; average daily trading volume was 1.44 trillion yuan, slightly higher than last week - Bearish logics: US employment data was strong, reducing short - term interest rate cut expectations; after the small - and medium - cap stocks rose, the market's willingness to reduce holdings was strong; current indices are approaching last October's highs, and valuations are higher than historical averages; Trump pressured countries on tariffs again, increasing uncertainties [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: Monetary policy is expected to be loose, maintaining a relatively loose liquidity environment; government bond supply pressure is controllable, and the issuance rhythm is stable; in the first and middle of the month, the capital market is seasonally loose, and DR007 remains in a low range; weak fundamental recovery supports the bond market - Bearish logics: June PMI rebounded month - on - month, showing economic resilience; long - term bond prices are high, and more momentum is needed to break through previous highs; fiscal policy efforts may drive a phased improvement in economic data [5] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The Northern Hemisphere is still in the peak oil consumption season; crude oil inventories continue to decline; Russia is gradually implementing production cuts; there may be a new round of fiscal expansion due to the US tax - cut bill; oil price downside risks have been largely released after a significant previous decline - Bearish logics: OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and the pace is faster than expected; the Israel - Iran conflict has ended, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to decline; during the autumn maintenance of global refineries, a supply - demand mismatch may lead to a significant increase in crude oil inventories; crude oil supply in North America has increased [6] Agricultural Products Sector Palm Oil - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The US 45Z Act was passed, boosting the demand for biodiesel, soybean oil, and palm oil; India's palm oil imports soared by 61% in June, showing strong demand; institutions expect a decline in Malaysia's palm oil production and an increase in exports in June, with a slight expected decline in inventory; Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July, indicating a strong willingness to support prices - Bearish logics: The arrival volume of palm oil in China has increased, the basis has weakened, and import profits are inverted; global tariff disputes have intensified, and macro risks have dampened market sentiment; oil mills have high operating rates, and the accumulation of soybean oil inventory suppresses the overall performance of oils and fats [6] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The macro - environment has improved, boosting market sentiment and aluminum prices; the recovery of the monthly spread shows strong industrial support under low inventories; the increase in the proportion of aluminum water in the industry delays the accumulation of visible inventories; aluminum ingot inventories remain at a low level, providing support for prices - Bearish logics: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has shown an inflection point of accumulation, weakening the support; the processing fee of downstream aluminum rods has fallen to negative, which may trigger a negative feedback in the industrial chain; high aluminum prices have suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot price has turned to a discount; the demand for photovoltaic components and exports has shown a downward inflection point; terminal demand has entered the off - season, and orders have significantly declined [7] Chemicals Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The spot market has formed a positive feedback, and price increases in areas such as Shahe have driven the sentiment of taking positions in the spot and futures markets; the expectation of seasonal improvement in demand in the second half of the year has increased, and the marginal improvement in apparent demand is evident; prices are at a low level, and there is a need for valuation repair - Bearish logics: Warehouse receipts in Hubei are suppressing the futures market, and the high - inventory pressure has not been alleviated; the glass produced by previously ignited production lines is gradually coming onto the market, slightly increasing supply pressure; the sustainability of inventory hoarding by the trading end is questionable, and there may be another round of destocking after the mid - stream replenishment; the weak trend in the real estate sector has not changed clearly, and insufficient terminal orders are suppressing demand elasticity [7] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the rising debt risk have increased the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset; global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, and the willingness to further increase holdings in the future is high; there is a potential downward revision risk in non - farm payroll data and a possible rebound in the unemployment rate, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts; high uncertainty in trade policies and the trend of anti - globalization support safe - haven assets - Bearish logics: The tariff negotiation has been postponed to August 1st, leading to a temporary rebound in market risk appetite; the US dollar index may rebound after a continuous decline, suppressing the price of gold; the easing of the Middle East situation has weakened the geopolitical premium, and speculative long - positions have taken profits [8] Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: Downstream coking and steel enterprises are replenishing inventories periodically, and coking coal trading is good; the "anti - involution" policy has raised expectations for supply - side reform, boosting market sentiment; the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is low, and prices have rebounded; the inventory at ports and mines has decreased well, and spot prices are stable with a slight increase - Bearish logics: Previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the marginal increase in supply is suppressing price increases; after the spot price rebounds, the pressure from hedging positions appears, and the basis repair may limit the upward movement; after the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the futures market has priced in the expected price increase; the rebound is a repair of low valuations, and further upward movement requires improvement in demand [8]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 隔夜国际油价上行，布伦特09合约涨0.62%。 美国EIA库存超预期增加712.8万桶,OPEC+延续快速 增产策略强化年内特别是四季度的供需宽松预期。但从三季度时间窗口来看,一方面石油旺季消费 对原油实货采购构成支撑，欧洲柴油的供应犹动引发炼化利润修复预期；另一方面，已被延期至8月 1日执行的美国对等关税最终博弈结构大概率弱于4月初水平,围绕伊核争端的中东地缘风险亦未彻 底消除,我们对三季度原油价格仍持底部抬升、震荡偏强判断,空头策略需等待旺季影响弱化后再 行介入。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，保太ADC12报价稳定在19500元，基差走低存在一定期现套利机会，交割 品牌溢价成交。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元以上但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差维持在400- 500元波动，价差如有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。 隔夜贵金属回落。上周美国非农数据超预期令市场放弃对7月降息押注，降息暂时落空后市场焦点转 向即将到期的美国关税政策，特朗普对部分国家加征关税但将最后期限延长至8月1日给各方谈判提 供了缓冲，同时他表示拟对铜加征50 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides operation ratings for various commodities: 3-star ratings (★★★) for Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Silicomanganese, and Ferrosilicon; no clear indication for Coking Coal and Manganese Silicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of short - term oscillation. The market is concerned about terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies. The steel market is cautious due to uncertainties in policies and demand. The iron ore market's upward movement depends on more policy support. The coke and coking coal markets face upward pressure due to inventory. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets follow the rebar trend with limited fundamental improvement [2][3][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillated today. Rebar's apparent demand increased, production rose, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production remained high, and inventory accumulated. Iron - water production decreased but stayed high. From the downstream perspective, infrastructure recovery lacks sustainability, real - estate sales are low, and manufacturing is resilient. The market is cautious due to policy uncertainties and "anti - involution" expectations, and it will oscillate in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated today. Global shipments decreased after the end - of - quarter rush, while domestic arrivals rebounded, and port inventory increased. Steel apparent demand was stable at a low level, and steel mills' profitability was okay. There is still some production - cut pressure. The market sentiment improved, but further price increases need more policies. Iron ore's short - term trend will follow steel products [3] Coke - The coke price oscillated during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but coking profits are thin, and daily production declined. Inventory decreased, and both traders' and steel mills' purchasing improved. The carbon supply is abundant, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact. The coke futures price has a premium, and there is upward pressure due to inventory [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated upward during the day. Coking coal mine production increased, the spot auction market improved, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. The carbon supply is abundant, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact. The coking coal futures price has a premium, and there is upward pressure due to inventory [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price oscillated upward during the day. Inventory decreased due to previous production cuts, but weekly production increased, and on - balance - sheet inventory rose. Manganese ore inventory is increasing in the long - term, and the current inventory is low, with mines having a stronger willingness to hold prices. The price of Comilog's oxidized ore increased slightly. The silicomanganese market follows the rebar trend, and there is significant pressure at the 6750 level [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated during the day. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was around 30,000 tons, with limited marginal impact. Magnesium production increased, and secondary demand was stable at a high level. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, market trading was average, on - balance - sheet inventory decreased, but production - end inventory increased. Some producers may use a trading model to help with inventory reduction. The ferrosilicon market follows the rebar trend, and there is limited driving force for continuous price rebound [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and cost factors, resulting in different price trends and investment outlooks [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range due to supply reduction expectations and low downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials in the off - season. Attention should be paid to macro - aspects and Iranian shipping [2] Urea - The short - term urea market will be mainly in a strong and oscillating trend due to improved supply - demand and positive news. In the later stage, it awaits new policy guidance [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures lack direction in the short term. The polyethylene market is dull, and the polypropylene market is in a strong off - season atmosphere [4] Pure Benzene - On the first listing day, the pure benzene price rose slightly. It is under short - term inventory pressure, with expected seasonal improvement in the second half of the third quarter and pressure again in the fourth quarter. Different trading strategies are recommended [5] Styrene - The styrene futures price declined. The cost - end support weakened, and there is obvious supply pressure and high inventory, with poor spot trading [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices oscillate narrowly. PX supply - demand improves, while PTA supply - demand becomes looser. Ethylene glycol oscillates at the bottom. Short - fiber may face inventory accumulation, and caution is needed for the repair space of bottle - chip processing margins [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC futures may oscillate at a low level due to supply increase and weak demand. Caustic soda shows a strong trend in the short term but faces supply pressure in the long term [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices rose, but the high - inventory and weak - demand pattern persists, with limited upward space. Soda ash has inventory pressure, and its price is expected to have limited significant increase [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report As of the week ending July 6, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, flat with market expectations and the previous week, but lower than 68% in the same period last year. The emergence rate was 96% and the flowering rate was 32%. The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market expectation of 73%, up from 73% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year, with a silking rate of 18%. The growth of US corn continued to improve. In the next two weeks, rainfall in most US soybean-growing areas will fluctuate slightly around normal, and temperatures will be slightly below normal, with rainfall forecasts down significantly from previous weeks. As it has entered the weather trading window, investors should closely monitor the driving changes brought by weather changes from July to August. With no severe weather changes in the US for now, there is still some room for future price increases [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Data**: The good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, the emergence rate was 96%, and the flowering rate was 32%. The good-to-excellent rate remained flat compared to the previous week, while the emergence rate and flowering rate showed certain changes compared to the previous week and the same period last year [1]. - **Corn Data**: The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than market expectations and the previous week, and also higher than the same period last year. The silking rate was 18%, indicating that the growth of US corn continued to improve [1]. - **Weather Outlook**: In the next two weeks, rainfall in most US soybean-growing areas will fluctuate slightly around normal, and temperatures will be slightly below normal. Rainfall forecasts have decreased significantly compared to previous weeks. It has entered the weather trading window, and investors should pay close attention to weather changes from July to August [1].