Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as Trump's tariff policies, seasonal demand, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events, leading to diverse trends in different commodities and financial markets [2][44] - Different commodities and markets show different trends including upward, downward, and oscillatory movements, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors affecting each market 3. Summary by Commodity and Market Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 09 contract down 1.85%. Uncertainties in economic and oil demand remain due to tariff policies, and although the peak - season physical market provides support, the upside space above $70/barrel is limited [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strength order is SC > BU > LU > FU. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks a clear driving force, with both showing weakening trends [18] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market supply is generally loose, and prices are stable. The import cost decline drives PDH margin repair, but the market maintains low - level oscillations in summer [20] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information provided Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals oscillated. Fed officials are divided on interest - rate cuts, and uncertainties before the US tariff deadline may cause risk sentiment to fluctuate, leading to continued oscillations [3] - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. Trump's tariff remarks may further push prices down during the domestic off - season, and short positions are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate strongly. Although there are signs of negative feedback in the off - season, inventory accumulation is not significant. Market risk preference is positive, and attention should be paid to position changes [5] - **Alumina**: The anti - involution theme drives the rise of alumina futures and spot prices. Although it is currently oscillating strongly, the high - level operating capacity may limit the upside space [6] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rebounded following the black - metal market. Although the short - term low - inventory situation leads to intensified capital games, the long - term downward trend is determined by the supply - demand imbalance [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly, but with sufficient inventory and weak upstream price support, short positions are recommended on a light scale [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin recovered most of its gains. Attention is on the low - level fluctuations of LME tin inventory, and short positions from previous highs are recommended to be held [11] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Methanol imports and apparent demand are weak, and port inventory is accumulating. Although planned plant overhauls may support prices, the off - season demand may limit price increases, resulting in range - bound oscillations [22] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by production rumors, PVC is strong in the short term, but long - term price increases are limited due to weak demand and high production. Caustic soda continues to rise, but long - term supply pressure may limit significant price increases [25] - **PX & PTA**: Overnight oil prices fell, causing PX and PTA prices to decline. PX supply - demand improves, while PTA supply - demand eases, and attention should be paid to the plant overhaul rhythm at low processing margins [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by falling oil prices, ethylene glycol oscillated overnight. Although there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, port inventory reduction and improved market sentiment provide some support [27] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Resin**: Prices of short - fiber and bottle - grade resin declined slightly. Short - fiber inventory may increase, and caution is needed regarding the repair space of bottle - grade resin processing margins [28] - **Pure Benzene**: Overnight oil prices fell, and the increase of pure benzene slowed. There are short - term positives in the market, but it will face pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal supply - demand trends should be considered for operation [46] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean good - quality rate is normal, and the domestic soybean meal market oscillates. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade and future weather conditions need to be monitored [32] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices slightly corrected. The MPOB report is more bearish than expected, but long - term, bio - diesel development may support vegetable oil prices. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed may face local dry risks, and domestic rapeseed oil is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [34] - **Corn**: Dalian corn oscillates. The increase in supply due to auctions affects market expectations, and the market may continue to oscillate [36] - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates weakly due to expected increases in India and Thailand's production. The domestic sugar market has low import volumes and light inventory pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton rose slightly. Brazilian cotton harvesting is slow, and domestic cotton has a good inventory digestion but faces off - season pressure. Buying on dips is recommended [39] - **Eggs**: Egg futures declined, and the spot price is stable. The peak - season start time may be delayed, and long - term egg prices may not have bottomed out [38] - **Hogs**: Hog futures rose, but the spot price weakened slightly. Long - term capacity pressure exists, and there is downward pressure on hog prices [37] - **Apples**: Apple futures oscillate. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on new - season yield estimates. A bearish operation strategy is recommended [41] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to oscillate in the short term, following spot freight rates. Geopolitical events may affect the market, and a cease - fire agreement may put pressure on far - month contracts [17] - **Building Materials** - **Glass**: Affected by production rumors and inventory reduction, glass futures rose. Short - term prices may follow macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases depend on real estate policies or supply reduction [29] - **Lumber**: Lumber futures oscillate. The supply of radiata pine is low, and demand shows some improvement, but prices are still weak due to the off - season [42] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp futures rose significantly. Although port inventory is high and demand is weak, the "anti - involution" concept boosts sentiment, and short - term observation or short - term operations are recommended [43] - **Financial Markets** - **Stock Index**: A - shares oscillated upward, and index futures rose slightly. The market is concerned about Trump's tariff policies, and investors are advised to increase their allocation of technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation [44] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated downward, and bond yields increased. Market risk preference is rising, and the bond market may face increased volatility [45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (Positive Outlook)**: Beans (★★☆), Soybean Meal (★★★), Rapeseed Meal (★★☆), Rapeseed Oil (★★★) [1] - **Sell (Negative Outlook)**: Palm Oil (★★★), Corn (★★★), Live Hogs (★★★), Eggs (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The report provides a daily analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs. It assesses the current market conditions, factors influencing prices, and offers short - and long - term outlooks for each product. Short - term factors such as weather, policy, and trade uncertainties are emphasized, while long - term trends like bio - diesel development and supply - demand fundamentals are also considered [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybeans - Domestic soybeans have stopped falling and rebounded, with prices slightly fluctuating. Northeast China's weather is favorable for soybean growth this week, and policy - driven trading had good results. Future weather and policies need close attention. US soybean优良率 is 66%, in line with market expectations, and future US weather shows no major deviations. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and the Dalian soybean market is currently in a state of oscillation [2][3] Soybean Meal - US soybean conditions are normal, and the domestic oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains high, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. Brazilian premiums have risen significantly, and domestic oil mills' 9 - month shipping procurement progress has reached 70%. With many uncertainties in Sino - US trade and no bad weather in the US for now, the Dalian soybean meal market is expected to oscillate [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract has partially reduced positions, and prices have slightly corrected. The MPOB report shows that production meets expectations, but exports are lower, domestic consumption is higher, and ending stocks are higher than expected. In the third quarter, overseas palm oil is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle. In the long run, bio - diesel development can support vegetable oil prices, so a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - There is still a risk of local dryness in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area, but recent rainfall has alleviated some concerns. CFTG funds hold a net long position in ICE rapeseed, which is at a historical high, and there is a risk of price pressure if funds reduce their positions. The domestic rapeseed oil market is weak, affected by the poor export performance of palm oil in the MPOB report. The rapeseed - related futures prices are under short - term pressure [6] Corn - The Dalian corn market is oscillating. Since July, due to the impact of CNGC auctions, the supply has increased and prices have declined, affecting market expectations. The supply from some grass - roots traders has increased, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong and Northeast China have generally fallen. The corn futures market is likely to continue oscillating [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures have increased in positions and prices, with the main contract hitting a new high. However, the spot price has weakened slightly, and the basis has narrowed significantly. The long - term production capacity pressure remains as the inventory of breeding sows increased in June, indicating a downward pressure on hog prices in the medium - to - long - term [8] Eggs - Egg futures have increased in positions and decreased in price, hitting a new low. The spot price is stable. July is a turning point between the off - season and peak season for egg prices, but this year's peak season may start later due to the late Mid - Autumn Festival. The 8 - month futures contract still has a premium of nearly a thousand yuan over the spot. In the long run, the long - term egg price has not bottomed out due to insufficient capacity reduction [9]

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyolefins (including propylene and polyethylene): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyester (including PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Chlor - alkali (including PVC and caustic soda): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows a mixed performance with different trends for each product. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and policy expectations, while others are influenced by macro - market sentiment and cost factors [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol futures market rebounds. MTO device operation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declines, import demand weakens, and port inventory accumulates. Some olefin failures in the northwest lead to inventory build - up of supporting methanol. There are many planned methanol device overhauls, which support the market, but demand is weak in the off - season, so the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] Urea - The urea futures market is strongly oscillating. Rainy weather boosts agricultural fertilizer demand, supply - demand improves marginally, and enterprise inventory decreases. Port inventory accumulates rapidly. The latest Indian tender price boosts market sentiment. In the short - term, the market is strongly oscillating, but later, agricultural demand will enter the off - season, and new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures rise, but the increase is weaker than other chemicals due to weak fundamentals. The polyethylene market sentiment improves slightly, but there is limited upward momentum. Polypropylene standard products follow the futures price increase, but non - standard product demand is weak [4] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is strong due to high oil prices and improved spot trading. Port inventory accumulation slows down, and downstream purchasing improves. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, but pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate based on seasonal supply - demand trends, conduct monthly spread band trading, and consider short - selling at high prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures rise significantly, driven by the sharp increase in the price of general benzene. The cost increase improves market trading sentiment, and the futures price increase drives factories to raise prices, with good trading volume [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise slightly, and the monthly spread is weak. PX load decreases, PTA load increases, and PTA supply - demand eases. Ethylene glycol inventory decreases, and the price is strong. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices rise slightly with raw material prices. Short - fiber inventory may increase, and bottle - chip enterprises cut production [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is strong due to real - estate rumors, but downstream orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulates. New production capacity is released, and domestic demand is weak. Caustic soda continues to rise, with reduced enterprise operation and inventory, but long - term supply pressure remains [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures rise significantly due to real - estate rumors and industry inventory reduction. Soda ash is strong in the macro - environment, but inventory pressure is high, and long - term demand is expected to decline [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] - Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, similar to fuel oil) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (One star, bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a judgment of a moderately bullish trend for crude oil in the third quarter, but the upside space for Brent crude above $70 per barrel is limited. For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the unilateral and crack spreads are weakening. The asphalt fundamentals are weakening, and its upside space is restricted. LPG is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - Crude oil futures continued to be strong, with the SC08 contract rising 0.54%. Last week, the US EIA crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by 7.07 million barrels. Although OPEC+ is increasing production and the global oil inventory is accumulating, the peak - season demand for refined oil in the third quarter, the relatively small impact of macro - level tariffs, and the increased frequency of Houthi ship attacks in the Red Sea support the price. The report maintains a judgment of a moderately bullish trend for crude oil in the third quarter, but the upside space for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, crude oil led the rise in refined oil futures, with the strength order being SC>BU>LU>FU. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the demand for ship bunkering and deep - processing is weak, and the demand for power generation in the Middle East and North Africa in summer fails to boost it. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply benefit from the diversion effect due to the decline in coking profit has disappeared, and the demand lacks a clear driver, with the crack spread declining [2] Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory started to accumulate in late June. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase in cumulative shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The overall demand recovery is expected to be delayed. The asphalt price mainly follows the direction of crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit its upside space [3] LPG - The international market supply is generally loose, and the price is stable. The new maintenance last week led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH gross profit. The supply pressure continues in summer, and the upside power of the futures price is limited, so it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★, with a certain upward trend [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Coke: ★☆★, showing a certain upward trend [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon manganese: No rating provided - Silicon iron: ★☆★, showing a certain upward trend [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, low inventory and positive market sentiment may keep the futures prices strong in the short term, while the focus is on terminal demand and relevant policies at home and abroad [2] - Iron ore prices may remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of increased price fluctuations [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are mainly driven by the trend of thread steel and may have some upward momentum in the short term [4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices mainly follow the trend of thread steel and are expected to have some upward space [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: This week, both apparent demand and output decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline slowly [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Demand and output declined, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly [2] - Overall: Low inventory and high iron - water production result in little negative feedback pressure on the market. The focus is on the demand - bearing capacity in the off - season [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments decreased significantly after the end of the quarterly volume rush, while domestic arrivals rebounded, and there is little pressure on port inventory accumulation in the short term [3] - Demand: Apparent demand for steel weakened slightly in the off - season, and there is still some pressure on iron - water production reduction [3] - Macro: High expectations for the upcoming important meeting and reduced external trade uncertainties have boosted market sentiment [3] Coke - Supply: Coking production has declined from the annual high, and overall inventory has continued to decrease [4] - Demand: Purchasing intentions of traders and steel mills have slightly improved [4] - Price: The price is mainly driven by the trend of thread steel and may have some upward momentum in the short term [4] Coking Coal - Supply: The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, and the closure of the Sino - Mongolian port during the Naadam Festival has improved the transaction of Mongolian coal [6] - Demand: Iron - water production remains high in the off - season, and the procurement is mainly on - demand [6] - Price: The price is mainly driven by the trend of thread steel and may have some upward momentum in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - Supply: After continuous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly output has begun to increase, and inventory on the balance sheet has started to rise [7] - Price: The price has broken through the 6750 resistance and is expected to have some upward space [7] Silicon Iron - Supply: Supply has continued to decline, and inventory on the balance sheet has decreased, but production - end inventory has started to accumulate [8] - Demand: Overall demand is fair, with stable export demand and increased production of magnesium [8] - Price: The price is mainly driven by the trend of thread steel, and the expectation of electricity price adjustment has enhanced the upward momentum [8]

国投期货研究院 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月10日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，布伦特09合约涨0.21%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期增加707万桶，与 API库存表现类似,但汽油表需单周表现强劲对市场构成支撑。OPEC+增产政策下全球石油累库趋势 延续，但三季度油品旺季需求对现实端供需构成支撑，宏观面关税冲击力度或最终小于4月初版本， 近期胡赛在红海袭船频率增加亦带来地缘溢价支撑,我们暂时维持三季度原油震荡偏强判断,但布 伦特突破70美元/桶的空间亦受限。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属震荡，黄金相对偏强。美联储6月会议纪要显示官员对降息看法分化，多数官员倾向于保 持观望。特朗普继续对多国发出贸易信函,其中巴西面临50%的高额关税。关税执行截止日前不确定 性仍强，风险情绪可能反复，责金属或延续震荡。 （铜） 隔夜伦铜在MA60日均线暂寻支撑，联储会议纪要显示经济前景的不确定性有所减弱但仍居高不下， 月底是否采取行动以实体指标为本。特朗普继续释放关税消息，市场整体反映偏冷，暂倾向 "TACO"交易情绪。美国关税落地意味着物流迁移结束，美国铜市区域化特点将更 ...

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★★★ [1] - 豆油: ★★★ [1] - 棕榈油: ★★★ [1] - 豆粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜油: ★★★ [1] - 玉米: ★★★ [1] - 生猪: ★★★ [1] - 鸡蛋: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - 农产品市场各品种表现分化，短期需关注天气、政策和经贸谈判等因素指引，中长期部分品种受产能影响存在价格压力 [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean and Its Products - 国产大豆主力合约减仓价格止跌反弹，东北产区天气利于生长，政策端购销双向交易成交好；进口美豆产区天气未来一周利于生长，短期关注天气和政策 [2] - 美国大豆优良率正常，未来两周产区降雨波动、温度略低，特朗普政府税率威胁执行推迟，连粕震荡，国内油厂压榨量高、豆粕库存上升，中美贸易不确定多，大连豆粕先以震荡对待 [3] - 棕榈油增仓上涨，豆油减仓震荡，6月马来西亚棕榈油产量降、需求增、库存降，关注MPOB报告和欧洲及黑海葵花籽天气，三季度海外棕榈油处增产周期，长期植物油逢低多配，短期关注政策和产区天气 [4] Rapeseed and Its Products - 菜粕低开高走小涨，菜油为植物油板块最弱，基本面围绕外盘菜籽产区天气和经贸谈判，国外产区天气风险降低菜籽承压，菜系单边趋势不明显，菜粕弱势震荡，菜系油粕比短期有向上波动空间 [6] Corn - 大连玉米震荡，市场聚焦阶段性供应，7月受中储粮拍卖影响供应上量价格走低，基层贸易商增加供应，山东现货增加，南北港库存攀升，需求疲软，玉米期货或继续震荡 [7] Livestock Products - 生猪期价回落，现货稳定，前期盘面上涨现货下跌后基差收窄，6月能繁母猪存栏上升，中长期猪价有下行压力 [8] Eggs - 鸡蛋主力08合约减仓反弹，7月为淡旺季转折点但今年中秋晚旺季或延后，现货报价稳定，8月合约对现货升水近千元，关注旺季启动和升水收敛，长期产能去化不足蛋价未见底 [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the energy market, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas. It assesses the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and investment opportunities in each sector [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC08 contract up 1.76%. The US EIA inventory unexpectedly increased by 712,800 barrels, and OPEC+ continued its rapid production increase strategy, strengthening the supply-demand loosening expectation, especially in the fourth quarter. However, in the third quarter, oil consumption during the peak season supports physical crude oil purchases, and the supply disruption of European diesel leads to expectations of refining profit recovery. The final outcome of the US reciprocal tariffs, postponed to August 1st, is likely to be weaker than in early April. The Middle East geopolitical risks related to the Iran nuclear dispute remain. The report maintains a view that crude oil prices will rise from the bottom and fluctuate strongly in the third quarter, and short-selling strategies should be considered after the peak season's impact weakens [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the rise in oil futures, followed by LU, while FU was relatively weak. For high-sulfur fuel oil, demand from ship bunkering and deep processing was low, and the summer power generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa did not boost it. The supply risk was removed as the Middle East conflict eased, and both the single price and crack spread of FU continued to weaken. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strong coking profit led to limited short-term supply pressure due to the diversion effect, and the strengthening of the Singapore diesel crack spread since late June also provided some support. However, the demand lacked a clear driver, and LU's trend mainly followed crude oil, with the short-term crack spread expected to fluctuate [2]. Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June, with a stocking increase of 24,000 tons. The unplanned increase was the key variable that broke the asphalt destocking pattern. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The continuous high temperature and increased rainfall in many places are expected to delay the overall demand recovery. The sales volume of road rollers increased significantly year-on-year from January to May, and the third quarter is a crucial observation window for asphalt demand recovery. Currently, the single price trend of asphalt mainly follows crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit the upside space of BU [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international market supply is generally loose, and although crude oil has strengthened recently, the LPG price has remained stable. Last week, new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs continued to repair the PDH gross profit. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound rhythm of PDH operating rates. The supply pressure persists in summer, and the decline in import costs limits the upward momentum of the futures price, maintaining a weak and fluctuating trend [4].