Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited operability on the market) [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry shows different trends in various sectors. Some are influenced by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and industry maintenance plans [2][3][5]. - Different products have different investment outlooks, with some having potential upward trends and others facing downward pressures [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures opened high and closed low, testing the 5 - day moving average. International oil price increases and supply reduction expectations support the price [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures closed up. For polyethylene, cost support strengthened, and some spot was tight. For polypropylene, more maintenance led to reduced supply, and downstream demand was stable [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures were strong due to rising oil prices, but fundamentals were weak with high inventory and reduced future maintenance [3]. - Styrene futures had a narrow - range consolidation. Cost support from oil prices was strong, and supply - demand was in a tight balance with slightly reduced inventory [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA demand will decline due to maintenance plans, but oil price recovery provides cost support. Terminal demand is weakening, and polyester开工 is expected to decline [5]. - For ethylene glycol, new domestic plants are about to start production, and overseas plants are shutting down. There is short - term pressure, but there may be improvement in the second quarter [5]. - Short fiber demand is weakening as downstream orders are few and profits are thin. It follows raw material price fluctuations [5]. - Bottle chip demand is weakening, and there are maintenance expectations. It is mainly driven by cost [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fluctuated sharply. Overseas supply decreased, but domestic production was high, and demand was entering the off - season. The driving force for price increase weakened [6]. - Urea prices were in a stalemate. Daily production increased, and commercial reserves increased. Short - term prices may decline slightly, but the downward space is limited [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC showed a strong - biased trend. Maintenance decreased, but downstream demand was low. There may be arbitrage opportunities from export tax rebates, and long - term de - capacity is expected [7]. - Caustic soda was in a weak state. Chlorine market was good, but the industry was generally in loss, and there may be production cuts in the future [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was in a weak state. Supply pressure was high, and downstream demand was poor. It should be treated with a high - short strategy [8]. - Glass was also weak. Production was in loss, and demand was insufficient. Supply decreased, and there may be long - term low - buying opportunities [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a comprehensive industry investment rating. For individual products, all are marked with white stars, indicating a short - term balanced state and poor operability, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1]. 2. Core View - The overall market shows mixed trends across different soft commodities. For most products, due to various factors such as supply - demand imbalances, inventory changes, and production progress, the market is in a state of uncertainty, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today. As of December, national commercial cotton inventory increased, and as of January 8, cotton processing volume increased year - on - year. Xinjiang's planting area reduction was less than expected. Spinning mills' raw material demand has resilience, but downstream orders are average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Internationally, the focus is on the Northern Hemisphere's production difference. India's 25/26 sugar production increased, while Thailand's was slower. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. In December, Guangxi's sugar production and sales both decreased. Although there is a strong expectation of an increase in Guangxi's production in the 25/26 season, the progress is slow. The operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. Apple - Apple futures prices continued to rise. In Gansu, procurement was active, and in Shaanxi, prices were stable. During the Spring Festival stocking period, most merchants packed their own goods. As of January 8, national cold - storage apple inventory decreased year - on - year, and the de - stocking volume increased. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. The operation strategy is to wait and see [4]. 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber fell. The global natural rubber supply is in a decreasing period, the domestic butadiene rubber device operation rate increased, and the domestic tire operation rate decreased. Rubber inventories increased. The overall situation is that demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and market sentiment is weakening. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Pulp - Pulp futures were generally stable today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward potential is restricted. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of Chinese pulp ports increased. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, and the external market's quotes for both have increased. Paper mills' pulp procurement is mainly for immediate needs, and the increase in base paper prices is relatively weak. The operation strategy is to wait and see [7]. Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The external market's quotes decreased, and the short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 9, the daily average outbound volume of logs at 13 ports increased week - on - week, and the total port inventory increased slightly. Low inventory provides some support for prices. The operation strategy is to wait and see [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate current investment opportunities [2] Core Viewpoints - The main tone of oil prices is a downward trend in the central level dominated by loose supply and demand [4] - The unilateral trend of fuel oil still mainly follows the fluctuations of the crude oil cost side, and the tense geopolitical situation continues to be a key influencing factor [5] - The tight supply of Venezuelan crude oil may affect the raw material supply of domestic refineries, and the market needs to pay close attention to the arrival situation [6] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - In January 2026, the global crude oil market faces significant inventory accumulation pressure [4] - If the US relaxes sanctions on Venezuela, Venezuelan oil production and exports may increase [4] - Geopolitical risks drive oil prices to rebound, but the short-term upward space of oil prices is expected to be limited [4] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil follows the fluctuations of the crude oil cost side, and the tense geopolitical situation is a key influencing factor [5] - In the high-sulfur market, if there is a supply interruption or trade flow diversion, domestic refineries may increase the use of fuel oil as an alternative raw material for asphalt production [5] - In the low-sulfur market, the supply scale is expected to gradually increase, and the overseas supply recovery brings a loose pressure, making the fundamentals continue to be weak [5] Asphalt - The arrival volume of imported Venezuelan crude oil in January is sufficient, but the supply may be more affected after February [6] - If the supply of Venezuelan crude oil continues to tighten, refineries may turn to higher-priced alternative oil sources [6] - The market needs to closely monitor the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES provides operation ratings for various commodities on January 13, 2026. The ratings are as follows: Threaded steel (★★★), Hot-rolled steel (★★★), Iron ore (★★★), Coke (★☆☆), Coking coal (★☆☆), Silicon manganese (★★☆), Silicon iron (★★☆) [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of range-bound oscillation. The demand for downstream industries is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient, but there is still support below [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is weak, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation still exists. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a strong - oscillation state. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to buy on dips. The silicon manganese has a structural problem in port inventory, and the silicon iron is affected by relevant policies and has certain demand resilience [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillates. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declines, and the inventory accumulates. The demand for hot - rolled steel falls, and the inventory is slowly depleted. The steel mill's profit is marginally repaired, and the blast furnace is gradually restarted. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the range - bound oscillation pattern may continue [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillates. The global shipment decreases seasonally, the domestic arrival volume increases, and the port inventory accumulates. The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the iron - water production is at the bottom, and it is difficult to resume production significantly in the short term. The steel mill's imported ore inventory increases, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation exists. The market sentiment is volatile, and the short - term oscillation is expected [3] Coke - The coke price oscillates downward during the day. The transaction price rises sporadically, the coking profit is average, and the daily output slightly increases. The inventory hardly changes. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillates downward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1520 vehicles. The coking coal mine output slightly decreases, and the spot auction transaction improves. The total inventory increases significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillates. Driven by the futures rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises. There is a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory. The iron - water production decreases seasonally, the weekly output of silicon manganese slightly decreases, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price oscillates. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production rebounds, the export demand decreases, and the secondary demand increases marginally. The supply decreases significantly, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

美国农业部 1 月大豆/玉米供需报告解读 国投期货研究院 2026-1-13 ———— 杨蕊霞 投资咨询号：Z0011333 美国农业部于 2026 年 1 月 13 日凌晨 1 点公布 1 月大豆供需报告。1 月报告为美豆定产报 告，25/26 年度美豆种植面积、单产及总产量在本次报告中予以最终确定。从产量端调整来 看，美豆产量出现一定的小幅上调，报告前市场预计美豆产量将小幅下调，产量端数据略偏 空。美豆平衡表中最大的意外利空来自于美豆出口数据的调整，本次报告将美豆年度出口目 标超预期大幅下调，并使得美豆年度结转库存大幅增加。全球方面，25/26 年度巴西大豆产 量上调，阿根廷维持不变，南美丰产预期得到加强。总体看本次报告利空，报告公布后美豆 价格出现快速回落。 具体来看，24/25 年度美豆平衡表作了小幅修正，主要是将残值从 32 下调至 23 百万蒲，下 调了 9 万蒲，其他项均不变，24/25 年度期末库相应上调 9 百万蒲，从 3.16 上调至 3.25 亿 蒲。25/26 年度美豆平衡表中，种植面积及收获面积均各自上调 10 万英亩，种植面积从 8110 万英亩上调至 8120 万英亩，收获面积从 ...

锡:高位加速,警惕价量 点石成金 2026年开年第二周首个交易日,沪锡2602主力合约增仓涨停,涨至37.6万高位,创出2022年3月8日由俄乌 冲突紧张升温激励的短线拉涨行情以来的高点。去年年底，锡市交易资金积极活跃，年线涨幅"翘尾"明显, 综合认为价格持续上涨反映的是近年以低邦锡业整顿为核心的长期供应犹动题材的蓄势爆发以及对智算半导体 主流投资题材布局追逐共同带来的战略金属溢价。从去年11月底沪锡加权突破30万元整数关以来，国内锡市累 计涨幅已达25%、接近2022年顶部位置。强量价映射下,资金配置抢跑情绪昂扬,短线尽管暂未有明显转折信 号,但建议警惕锡市价格顶部风险。 安如泰山 信守承诺 1、长期锡消费结构依托电子焊料高需求增速 沪锡涨至30-35万区间，高价特点明显，12月中国有色金属工业协会锡业分会发表《倡议书》，上周中国电 子行业材料锅焊料分会发表《关于共同营造健康理性的焊锡市场环境的倡议书》反映了锡价、银价原材料价格 快速上涨对焊料生产企业的负面压力。 ITA资料显示，2025年全球电子焊料用锡占比达到34%、光伏焊料占比 12%、工业焊料占比7%；其他消费领域，锡化工（16%）、马口铁（11% ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 棉花: 美棉产量下调，报告偏多 USDA 棉花月度报告解读 2025/26年度供需数据调整情况: 美国农业部1月份的报告中，美棉产量下调幅度高于市场预期，全球产量调整幅度较小，全球棉花需求稳中咯 增,最终期末库存有所下调，报告影响偏多。 25/26年度全球产量下调7.7万吨，其中印度产量下调10.8万吨，美国产量下调7.7万吨，土耳其产量下调4.4万 吨,中国产量上调21.8万吨,全球产量仍处于相对偏高的位置,供给或仍相对宽松。美国产量在从929磅/英亩 下调至856磅/英亩，收获面积从7.37百万英亩上调只7.8百万英亩，播种面积从9.3百万英亩小幅下调至9.28百 万英亩，最终美棉产量下调7.7万吨。 25/26年度全球消费环比上调6.8万吨，其中中国消费上调10.9万吨只849.1万吨，全球消费总体持稳。 25/26年度棉花进口环比上调0.5万吨，其中土耳其进口下调2.1万吨，印度进口上调4.3万吨，其余主要进口国 均未作调整。全球出口上调0.6万吨，其中澳大利亚出口上调4.4万吨，印度出口上调2.2万吨。 全球25/26期末库存环比下调32.4万吨,其中中国期末库存上调10.9万吨 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Research Institution: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group - Report Date: January 13, 2026 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, there is little change in the long - short ratio of commodities. The factor strength of the precious metals sector remains high, the energy sector rebounds slightly, and the black and agricultural product sectors decline slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors are relatively strong in the cross - section, while the black and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak. The comprehensive signal of each variety has different trends, including long, neutral, and short signals [3]. Summary by Related Content 1. Commodity Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: The time - series momentum of gold drops slightly but remains in a relatively strong range, and the trading volume of silver continues to increase marginally [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector continues to rise, and the term structure differentiation expands [3]. - **Black Metals**: The time - series momentum of the black sector drops slightly marginally. The momentum of rebar decreases, while that of coking coal and coke increases [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The short - cycle momentum cross - section differentiation of the energy and chemical sector expands, and PTA is at the long end of the cross - section. The term structure of the chemical sector shows differentiation [3][2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Except for corn, the short - cycle momentum of agricultural products drops slightly [3]. 2. Strategy Net Value and Factor Analysis - **General Situation**: In terms of strategy net value, different factors have different trends. For some varieties, the supply factor, demand factor, inventory factor, and spread factor show different degrees of strength or weakness, and the synthetic factors also have corresponding changes. The comprehensive signals include long, neutral, and short [5][13][15]. - **Methanol**: The supply factor strengthens by 0.33% last week, the demand factor rises by 0.05%, the inventory factor increases by 0.04%, the spread factor strengthens by 0.32%, and the synthetic factor rises by 0.30%. The comprehensive signal this week is long. The import volume of methanol decreases, the demand is neutral, the inventory releases a long signal, and the spread is neutral to short [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply factor has a 0.00% return last week and 0.39% monthly return, the demand factor is - 0.04% last week and - 0.07% monthly return, the inventory factor is 0.00% last week and 0.97% monthly return, the spread factor is 0.00% last week and 1.79% monthly return, and the synthetic factor is - 0.01% last week and 0.84% monthly return. The comprehensive signal is neutral. The supply is short, the demand is neutral, the inventory is long, and the spread is neutral [13]. - **Lead**: The demand factor weakens by 0.04% last week, the synthetic factor drops by 0.01%, and the comprehensive signal this week is short. The supply is short, the inventory turns neutral, and the spread is neutral [13]. - **Float Glass**: The supply factor strengthens by 1.03% last week, the demand factor rises by 1.09%, the inventory factor weakens by 0.02%, the profit factor drops by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor rises by 0.81%. The comprehensive signal is neutral. The supply is neutral, the demand turns neutral, the inventory is long, and the profit is short [15]. 3. Performance Data | Variety | Last Week's Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | General (First Table) | 0.33 (Supply), 0.05 (Demand), 0.04 (Inventory), 0.32 (Spread), 0.30 (Synthetic) | 0.38 (Supply), 0.48 (Demand), 0.43 (Inventory), 0.32 (Spread), 0.60 (Synthetic) | | General (Second Table) | 1.03 (Supply), 1.09 (Demand), - 0.02 (Inventory), - 0.21 (Profit), 0.81 (Synthetic) | 2.13 (Supply), 2.96 (Demand), 0.39 (Inventory), 0.25 (Spread), 0.14 (Profit), 2.13 (Synthetic) | | General (Third Table) | 0.00 (Supply), 0.00 (Inventory), 0.51 (Spread), 0.24 (Synthetic) | 0.00 (Supply), - 0.68 (Inventory), 0.83 (Spread), 0.18 (Synthetic) | | Iron Ore | 0.00 (Supply), - 0.04 (Demand), 0.00 (Inventory), 0.00 (Spread), - 0.01 (Synthetic) | 0.39 (Supply), - 0.07 (Demand), 0.97 (Inventory), 1.79 (Spread), 0.84 (Synthetic) | | Lead | - 0.04 (Demand), - 0.01 (Synthetic) | Not fully detailed | | Float Glass | 1.03 (Supply), 1.09 (Demand), - 0.02 (Inventory), - 0.21 (Profit), 0.81 (Synthetic) | Not fully detailed | 4. Sector Momentum and Other Data | Sector | Momentum Time - series | Momentum Cross - section | Term Structure | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Metals | 1.46 | 0.33 | 1.1 | 0.33 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 0.85 | - 2.49 | 0.83 | 0.92 | | Energy and Chemicals | - 0.38 | 0 | 1.03 | 1.46 | | Agricultural Products | - 0.6 | 0.81 | 1.83 | - 1.82 | | Stock Index | 0.06 | 0.78 | - 0.25 | 1.37 | | Precious Metals | 1.01 | Not provided | Not provided | 0.56 | [6]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in Iran drive up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to significant inventory pressure and supply surplus in Q1 2026 [2] Precious Metals - International gold and silver hit new highs. Geopolitical chaos and concerns about the Fed's independence make precious metals easy to rise and hard to fall [3] Copper - Overnight copper prices rose. Sentiment from Powell's possible prosecution and market spread logistics support copper prices. A previous option strategy can still be held [4] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum briefly broke through 25,000 yuan and then fell. It's important to see if it can stabilize above 24,800 yuan. Aluminum producers can consider selling hedging [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It follows aluminum price fluctuations passively. Scrap aluminum is tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum will be weaker than usual [6] Alumina - Domestic operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, with a significant surplus. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures face resistance at 3,000 yuan [7] Zinc - Domestic and imported ore TC are low. Supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. Consumption is picking up after the holiday. It is expected to fluctuate between 23,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Bullish sentiment is strong in the Shanghai lead market. The cost of recycled lead is rising, providing support. It is expected to fluctuate between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is active. Stainless steel production is expected to increase in January. The short - term is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10] Tin - Overnight, Shanghai tin continued to rise. The market gives high premiums to semiconductor consumption and geopolitics. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11] Lithium Carbonate - It hit the daily limit again. Demand is expected to surge in Q1. The inventory situation is complex, and the futures price is strong but with high short - term uncertainty [12] Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate. Consider short - selling if it breaks through 9,000 yuan/ton [13] Polysilicon - The cancellation of export tax rebates boosts short - term demand, but the market sentiment is weak. The price is seeking cost support [14] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices were weak at night. Demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and inventory is changing. Iron ore supply is strong, and demand is weak. Both are expected to fluctuate [15][16] Coke and Coking Coal - Both prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season [17][18] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon prices fell. The manganese ore inventory has a structural problem. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, and demand has some resilience. Both suggest buying on dips [19][20] Group 2: Chemicals Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The cancellation of export tax rebates may stimulate pre - shipment. The impact on spot freight rates needs further observation [21] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil follows crude oil. Geopolitical risks affect high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur supply is expected to increase [22] Asphalt - Crude oil rebounds, but asphalt futures are weak. Pay attention to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [23] Urea - The futures price is firm. Production is increasing, and demand is picking up. The price may decline slightly in the short - term [24] Methanol - Overseas supply is low, and domestic production is high. Demand is weakening, and the driving force for price increase is weakening [25] Pure Benzene - Import is sufficient, and the port inventory is high. It is affected by oil prices in the short - term and has difficulty in de - stocking in the long - term [26] Styrene - Crude oil price increase supports the cost. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is rising [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Supply is supported. Polyethylene has cost support, and polypropylene has reduced production due to more maintenance [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is weak. It may have export - driven arbitrage opportunities. Caustic soda is weak, and the industry may face profit compression [29] PX and PTA - Polyester demand will decline, but oil price rebound provides support. PX has a strong long - term expectation, and PTA's processing margin is moderately repaired [30] Ethylene Glycol - Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. It is under pressure in the short - term and may improve in Q2 [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber demand is weakening, and bottle - chip demand is turning weak. Both follow raw material prices [32] Group 3: Building Materials Glass - It is weak. Supply is shrinking, and demand is insufficient. Consider buying on dips after a long - term decline [33] Rubber - Natural rubber supply is decreasing, and synthetic rubber supply is increasing. Demand is slowly recovering. The strategy is to go long on natural rubber and wait and see on butadiene rubber [34] Soda Ash - It is weak. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Consider short - selling on rebounds [35] Group 4: Agricultural Products Soybeans, Bean Meal, and Bean Oil - USDA data shows an increase in soybean supply. Bean meal may follow the weak trend of US soybeans. Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by supply, policy, and weather [36][37] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The US Department of Agriculture report is bearish on rapeseed. The market expects the improvement of China - Canada relations to put pressure on rapeseed prices [38] Domestic Soybeans - Spot prices are rising. Supply is tight at the grassroots level, but demand is cautious. Pay attention to policies and the spot market [39] Corn - Northeast spot prices are firm. US corn prices fell after the USDA report. Dalian corn futures are expected to fluctuate widely [40] Livestock and Poultry - Pig prices are oscillating. Supply pressure is high before the Spring Festival, and a second bottom is possible in the medium - long term. Egg prices may strengthen in H1 2026 due to supply and demand changes [41][42] Cotton - US cotton prices are strong due to reduced production. Zhengzhou cotton is adjusting. Demand is stable in the off - season [43] Sugar - International sugar production varies by country. Domestic sugar may rebound weakly due to production expectations [44] Apples - Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. The market focuses on demand, and the high price and poor quality may affect inventory clearance [45] Wood and Pulp - Wood prices are low. Supply and demand are weak, and low inventory provides some support. Pulp prices are limited by weak demand, and inventory is increasing [46][47] Group 5: Financial Products Stock Index - The Shanghai Composite Index had a 17 - day consecutive rise. A - share trading volume hit a record high. The stock index futures are expected to be strong [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose on January 12. A bull - flattening trend between 10 - 30Y is expected [48]

Intel 国投期货 原油: 供需宽松主导全年，价格中枢下移 国投期货研究院 根据IEA评估，2025年全球汽油需求预计达到2740万桶/目的峰值并在随后年份步入下滑通道： 郑若金 Z0011388 2026年1月 11/11/1 国投期货 需求展望 The Station the was and the 川川 历年布伦特原油价格走势 美元/桶 布伦特均价 ——近十年累计平均值 —— 近二十年累计平均值 ----自1976年以来累计平均值 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 数据来源：BP，路透，国投期货 % 汽油需求：全球需求达峰，区域分化明显 图:全球汽油需求 国新能源汽车销量及渗透率 图：美国汽油表观消费量 汽油消费增速 = 用消费 28 10% 5% 26 24 202 ZOZ coz ZOZ coz ZOZ ZOZ ZOZ ZOZ 202 ＞ 从 ...