市场主流观点汇总 2025/10/14 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/10/10 | | 2025/9/30 | 至 | 2025/10/10 | | | 铜 | 85910.00 | 铜 | | | 3.37% | | | 焦煤 | 1161.00 | 焦煤 | | | ...

★鲜有观点流出的费城联储新掌门保尔森暗示：支持今年再降息两次，每次25个基点。 ★埃及、美国、卡塔尔和土耳其四个斡旋方国家领导人签署了《加沙停火协议全面文件》。 ★美东时间10月14日，美国开始实施对中国海事、物流和造船领域301调查的最终措施,严重违反国际法和 国际关系基本准则,严重损害中国企业合法权益。韩华海洋株式会社在美相关子公司协助、支持美国政府对 中国海事、物流和造船业开展301调查并采取措施。 中方对此强烈不满、坚决反对。为维护自身主权、安全 和发展利益。根据《中华人民共和国反外国制裁法》等相关法律法规，经国家反外国制裁工作协调机制批 准,中方决定将韩华海洋株式会社5家美国相关子公司列入反制清单,禁止我国境内的组织、个人与其进行 有关交易、合作等活动。中方敦促美方及相关企业尊重事实和多边经贸规则,遵守市场经济和公平竞争原 则,尽早纠正有关错误做法,停止损害中方利益。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 | Millio | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, providing insights on their supply - demand, price trends, and investment strategies based on current market conditions such as geopolitical events, trade frictions, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] - It also offers views on financial products like stock indices and treasury bonds, considering macro - economic factors and policy directions [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices partially recovered on Monday. Fourth - quarter Brent crude average price is expected to drop from $67/barrel in Q3 to $62/barrel. Short - term, end - of - month APAC meeting and Sino - US talks may affect risk sentiment, and the previously recommended strategy can be temporarily closed [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is expected to follow crude oil's oscillation. High - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support but faces medium - term pressure, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [20] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: OPEC+增产背景下海外伴生气供应压力加剧，沙特10月CP价格下调超出市场预期，LPG缺乏利好支撑而承压 [22] - **Urea**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the domestic supply - demand pattern is loose. The market is likely to continue its weak trend [23] - **Methanol**: The Iran sanctions ship event may reduce imports. Coastal MTO device operation is stable, and port inventory accumulation is less than expected [24] - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Cost support weakens, downstream demand is scattered, and inventory needs to be digested. Prices are under pressure [27] - **PVC &烧碱**: Trade friction may affect PVC exports. PVC supply is high, and it may have a weak - oscillating trend. Caustic soda has a marginal improvement, and the decline of futures prices is expected to be limited [28] - **PX & PTA**: PX price decline drives the polyester industry chain down. Supply is under pressure, and downstream demand is expected to weaken in the mid - to - long term [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production increases, ports accumulate inventory, but the price is at the bottom of the range. Pay attention to Sino - US trade relations [30] - **Short Fibre & Bottle Chip**: Short - fibre prices decline due to raw material and trade friction. Bottle - chip production increases inventory, and demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Glass**: It is in a weak state. After the holiday, inventory accumulates, and supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for low - buying opportunities near the cost [32] - **20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: Demand recovers after the holiday, supply pressure is high, and inventory decreases. It is advisable to wait and see [33] - **纯碱**: Supply is high, demand increase is limited, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It is advisable to short at high - rebound levels [34] - **大豆 &豆粕**: Domestic soybean supply in Q4 is sufficient, but it may be tight in Q1 next year. Wait and see for now, and be cautiously bullish in the long term [35] - **豆油 &棕榈油**: US soybean sales are slow. The supply of South American soybeans and existing domestic inventory can buffer. Palm oil inventory is high. Wait for price bottom - seeking and then go long [36] - **菜粕 &菜油**: Canadian rapeseed harvest nears completion, with good yield. Pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations. Consider short - selling rapeseed - related products in cross - product strategies [37] - **豆一**: Domestic soybeans are rebounding, and imports from the US are affected. Supply may be tight in Q1 next year. Pay attention to policy guidance [38] - **玉米**: Corn futures decline. New grain supply increases, and prices are under pressure. Hold short positions and wait for policy support [39] - **生猪**: Futures prices are under pressure, and the spot price is at the bottom. Pay attention to secondary fattening and the industry's capacity reduction cycle [40] - **鸡蛋**: Near - month contracts are strong, and far - month contracts are weak. Accelerate the elimination of old chickens. Short near - month contracts and go long on far - month contracts [41] - **棉花**: US cotton demand is weak, and domestic cotton supply may increase significantly. Demand is weak. Temporarily wait and see [42] - **白糖**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [43] - **苹果**: Futures prices are high - oscillating. Supply change is small, and cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. Adopt a short - selling strategy [44] - **木材**: Prices are in a correction. Supply is low, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see [45] - **纸浆**: Futures prices rise. Port inventory is high, and demand is average. Pay attention to inventory changes and wait and see [46] - **Stock Indices**: A - share market had a V - shaped recovery. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade relations and domestic policies. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector in the medium term [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices rise. The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The yield curve steepening may end, and long - term bonds are more likely to recover [48]

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月13日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 標網油 | な☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆表现为反弹的态势,价格震荡走强,现阶段企业积极入市收购,国产大豆表现强于进口大豆,价差走 强。进口大豆方面美国新季大豆销售进度慢。今年由于贸易环境的不确定性，中国大豆供应链采购源头转向南 美，对美国大豆尚未进行采购,由于中国的采购体量大,其他国家难以匹敌中国的市场规模,因此美豆出口需 要经受 ...

| 11/11/2 > 国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月13日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F03107558 Z0021515 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 下半年以来全球石油累库4.3%,其中原油累库3.9%（在途及浮仓为主）、成品油累库5.1%，累库速度较上半年 有所加快。四季度OPEC+进一步增产及石油需求李节性转弱带来的空头压力仍未结束,美国政府停摆、中美贸易 战卷土重来又引发新的避险情绪,俄罗斯能源设施遇袭及俄罗斯、伊朗被制裁风险会带来供应的阶段性收紧, 但加沙停火协议亦为全球地缘和解作出新的尝试. 预估四季度布伦特原油均价将自三季度的67美元 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market closed up 0.46% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. Due to the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation, the commodity market may be under pressure in the short term [2]. - The US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish statements from Fed officials, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals, which may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Non - ferrous metals may be under pressure due to trade tensions despite supply disturbances. Black metals are likely to face pressure with weak demand and increasing external trade frictions. Energy prices may oscillate weakly due to inventory increases and geopolitical factors. Chemical products may be affected by trade frictions and oil price drops. Agricultural products may face supply shortages if the trade war persists [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.46% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rose 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [2]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Tin, copper, and coking coal led the gains with increases of 4.1%, 3.37%, and 3.11% respectively. Pigs, eggs, and crude oil had larger declines of 8.38%, 7.64%, and 3.71% respectively [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The losses from the US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish Fed statements, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals. With the rising risk of the Sino - US trade war, the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Supply disturbances made the sector perform strongly during the holiday, but the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation led to large declines in previously strong varieties. Supply remains tight, but terminal consumption has slowed, and inventories are accumulating. The sector may be under pressure in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: During the long holiday, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production decreased slightly, and inventories increased sharply. With high - level molten iron, weakening steel mill profitability, and increasing external trade frictions, the sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and geopolitical factors may have a negative impact on oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. - **Chemical Products**: For building materials, trade friction may be unfavorable for PVC exports, and PVC may oscillate weakly. Polyester products may be affected by trade friction and oil price drops, facing cost collapse and weak demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Possible US tariff increases may affect domestic soybean supplies in the first and second quarters of next year. If the trade war lasts, the overall supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year. Oils and fats may be under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty caused by the US government shutdown [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Precious Metal ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.94% - 2.99%. The total net asset value of gold ETFs was 1,773.72 billion yuan, with a 1.66% increase. The total net asset value of all commodity ETFs was 1,853.72 billion yuan, with a 1.83% increase [38]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical futures ETF had a - 1.28% return, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a - 0.29% return, the non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a 3.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a 2.61% return [38].

1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 | 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月13日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属延续强势上涨。 上周中东地缘局势发生变化，第一阶段加沙停火协议正式生效令责金属一度出现 调整,但是随着关税博弈的重启,贵金属重拾涨势。近期金价和银价不断刷新历史新高,疯狂涨势以美国政 府停摆、美联储降息以及独立性问题为催化,但核心是特朗普激进政策下美元信用体系受到冲击以及全球政 治经济格局的割裂。上周五特朗普对华的再一次关税威胁是对于全球乱局和不确定性前景的进一步验证，贵 金属中长期上行逻辑稳固,重心抬升趋势将会延续。周末美方释放愿意理性谈判的软化信号，全球股市和大 宗商 ...

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 10 月 13 日 大类资产运行周报（20251006-20251010） 中美贸易摩擦预期再起 风险资产回落 全球大类资产表现情况：美元指数上涨 股债商品回落 10 月 6 日—10 月 10 日当周，美国总统特朗普发出关于关税的威胁发言，市场对贸易摩擦预期 升温。美元指数周度收涨。股债商品皆出现不同幅度回落。综合来看，以美元 计价，债＞商品＞股。 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | -0.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -2.30% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.51% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.73% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | -0.33% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 1.13% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn -2.20% | | | 021-68767839 | ...

| 《八 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年10月13日 | 操作评级 | | | 曹凯 首席分析师 | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | | F03095462 Z0017365 | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | | 白糖 | なな女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | 女女女 | | | F0285606 Z0003096 | 20号胶 | な☆☆ | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，受到中美贸易冲突可能加剧的影响，上午开盘大幅低开，随后情绪有所修复。棉花现货基差稳中略有下 调；2025/26年度喀什手摘双29，双30杂3内现货报价在GF01+1250上下，疆内自提。2025/26年度新棉收购主流均价空间较窄, 整体以6-6.3元/公斤为主，新棉理论成本13500-14400公定不等。纯棉纱价格稳中偏弱，走货气氛 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Pure Benzene: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bearish [1] - Polypropylene: Bearish [1] - Plastic: Bullish [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic Soda: Bullish [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bearish [1] - Short Fiber: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish [1] - Bottle Chip: Bullish [1] - Propylene: Bearish [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as oil prices, trade frictions, and supply - demand relationships, with different product trends varying [2][3][5] - Some products are facing supply pressure, while others are influenced by demand changes and cost fluctuations Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices decline due to lower oil prices and weak demand [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices are under pressure, with supply increase expectations and inventory digestion pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is affected by oil prices and trade frictions, with a complex market situation [3] - Styrene futures prices continue to decline, with supply increments exceeding demand improvements [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are weak but the impact of trade frictions is weakening, and long - term supply - demand is under pressure [5] - Ethylene glycol's downward space depends on the energy market, and there are trading suggestions for spreads [5] - Short fiber prices decline slightly, and bottle chip may face weakening demand [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rise due to potential import reduction, and the market may be strong in the short term [6] - Urea supply is high, and the demand is weak, with a likely weak market [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may have a weak and oscillating trend due to trade frictions and supply pressure [7] - Caustic soda may oscillate strongly with supply pressure relief and potential downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices oscillate, with an oversupply situation in the long term [8] - Glass prices are weak, with high inventory and cautious operation suggestions [8]