国投期货 韩泽文 期货从业号: F03108100 投资咨询号: Z0021517 5 天 日期 标的物价格 标的涨跌幅 当月IV 次月IV 2025/10/13 3.101 -0.35% 16.92% 17.65% 2025/10/14 3.1 -0.03% 17.38% 17.48% 2025/10/15 3.138 1.23% 16.01% 16.36% 【50ETF】 近1年 当月IV分位数 60.40% 63.20% 54.20% 近2年 当月IV分位数 当月合约距离到期还剩 70.70% 72.80% 64.80% 近1年 次月IV分位数 56.90% 55.60% 51.00% 近2年 次月IV分位数 71.00% 69.50% 64.40% 2025年10月15日 金融期权波动率 0% 10% 20% 30% ATM IV(M1) ATM IV(M2) ATM IV(Q1) ATM IV(Q2) ATM IV期限结构 今日 昨日 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2022/10/13 2023/3/10 2023/8/7 2024/1/3 2024/ ...

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: Not explicitly stated, but implied positive trend [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not explicitly rated [1] - Zinc: Not explicitly stated, but implied bearish trend [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: Not explicitly rated, but implied bearish trend [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: Not explicitly rated, expected to fluctuate [1][9] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated, recommended to be cautious [1][10] Core Views - The prices of different non - ferrous metals show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - economic situation, and policy expectations [2][3][6] - Some metals like aluminum and copper have specific trading strategies based on their market performance and fundamental factors [2][7] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper prices rose during the day, with the spot price at 85,235 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium was 90 yuan, and the Guangdong premium was 40 yuan on the last trading day. The option portfolio strategy is continued [2] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded slightly, with the East China spot premium at 30 yuan. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically flat year - on - year. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and rods increased moderately during the National Day, and the inventory decreased in the past two days. The spot premium and discount improved. The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will test the previous high resistance [2] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continues to fall by about 10 yuan. The current index price is approaching the cash - loss production cut level in Shanxi and Henan [2] Zinc - On Wednesday, the LME zinc spot delivery day, the 0 - 3 month premium declined from a high level, the zinc spot export window opened, and the LME zinc inventory stopped falling and rebounded. The extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets converged. The fourth - quarter Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the domestic consumption peak season is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is weakly operating, and the market trading is light. After the interest - rate cut, the long - position cashing - out tendency is prominent, and the Sino - US friction increases uncertainty. The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with limited downstream demand recovery in the traditional peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up at 281,000 yuan, and the spot tin was reported at 281,700 yuan, basically at par on the last trading day. There is no new news about the resumption of Burmese ore supply, and the domestic leading production capacity that was under maintenance is gradually resuming production this month [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The Sino - US friction affects market risk preference in the short term. The overall inventory level is still high, and there may be a short - term correction risk. Technically, it is weakly operating [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fell slightly. In October, the production capacity in the Xinjiang production area continued to be released, and the production rate in the southern production area remained stable. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest production area from late October to early November. The cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price significantly rebounded, driven by policy - related news. However, the fundamentals lack positive factors, with the spot price narrowly fluctuating, high - price resistance in the market, and expected production increase in October. The risk of inventory accumulation is rising, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The mid - term outlook for crude oil remains bearish, and attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US talks during the APAG meeting at the end of the month on risk sentiment [2]. - Precious metals have a solid long - term upward logic, but in the short term, due to over - bought signs, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For most commodities, factors such as Sino - US trade frictions, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes have significant impacts on their prices and market trends [2][3][20] Summary by Categories Metals - **Copper**: Prices fell overnight. The market expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates this month. The previous options combination strategy is continued [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate, and the upside space should be viewed with caution [5]. - **Alumina**: Supply is in obvious surplus, and it will mainly operate weakly [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Whether the price difference with Shanghai aluminum can continue to narrow remains to be observed [7]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory increased slightly. Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: LME lead inventory increased, and Shanghai lead has short - term downward pressure, with support at 16,800 - 16,900 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel operates weakly, and the center of gravity tends to move down [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai and LME tin prices fell. Short positions can be held against 290,000 yuan, or call options with an exercise price of 300,000 yuan for the 2511 contract can be sold [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price rebounded slightly, but there is a short - term callback risk [11]. - **Polysilicon**: After approaching the lower end of the range, the futures price rebounded significantly, but the upside space is still limited [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In October, the risk of inventory accumulation is relatively high, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price fluctuated. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke**: The price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price mainly fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price mainly fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19]. Energy - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight, they followed the decline of crude oil - related varieties. High - sulfur fuel oil may face medium - term supply pressure, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [21]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand remains in a tight balance. The far - month contract is more under pressure [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: There is a lack of positive support [23]. - **Urea**: The market demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [24]. - **Methanol**: The main contract fell. Attention should be paid to port inventory changes and the impact of Sino - US trade disputes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price fell. The industry valuation is low, and the impact of oil prices should be noted [25]. - **Styrene**: Some local producers cut prices, and downstream procurement is cautious [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply pressure increases, and the prices are under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may fluctuate weakly, while caustic soda's downward range is expected to be limited [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The prices continued to decline. PTA's supply - demand outlook is weak [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is at the bottom of the range, and the downward resistance increases. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade relations [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a supply shortage in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to wait and see [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Oils are expected to be more resilient in the long - term. It is advisable to go long after the price bottoms out [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to use rapeseed - related products as a short - side configuration in cross - competitor strategies. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: Domestic soybeans continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to policies and fundamentals [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price rebounded at the bottom. The bottom is approaching [39]. - **Pigs**: The futures price rebounded with reduced positions. There is upward support for next year's second - half contracts [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price rebounded with reduced positions. The near - month contracts should be shorted, and the far - month contracts can be longed [41]. - **Cotton**: The demand for US cotton is expected to remain weak. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international market supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated at a high level. It is advisable to maintain a short - side thinking [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price continued to correct. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price rose. Attention should be paid to port inventory changes [46]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: After initially digesting the price - increase expectations, the market is expected to return to fluctuations. The focus will be on the actual implementation of price support in November [20]. - **Stock Index**: The market sentiment fluctuates between risk - aversion and optimism. The medium - term allocation should focus on the technology growth sector, but attention should be paid to possible sector rotations [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market will gradually enter the repair stage. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [48].

国投期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2025/10/14 有色板块持仓量截面分化 商品本周小幅空头占比增加,主要表现 为黑色和化工板块因子强度回落。目 前,截面偏强的板块是贵金属,截面偏 弱的是化工和黑色板块。具体来看,黄 金时序动量边际上升,但白银动量边际 转弱,截面差异逐渐缩窄。有色板块持 仓量因子边际回升,截面上的铜偏强。 黑色板块,焦煤焦炭长周期动量因子回 CTA 落,铁矿持仓量维持低位。能化板块截 面动量分化扩大,乙二醇和PTA在截面 上偏弱。农产品方面,豆油棕榈油短周 期动量因子维持低位,豆粕动量截面偏 导航。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 供給 | -0.19 | -0.43 | | 語求 | -0.18 | 0.06 | | 库存 | -0.37 | -0.03 | | 价差 | 0.25 | -0.13 | | 大类累加 | -0.37 | -0.52 | 用 策略净值方面,上周供给因子走低O. 19%,需求因子走弱0.18%,库存因子下 行0.37%,价差因子走强0.25%,合成因 子下行0.37%,本 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] Report's Core View The chemical industry is generally weak. Various chemical products are facing different challenges such as increased supply pressure, weak demand, and price declines. Each product's market situation is affected by factors like production capacity changes, downstream demand, and cost pressures [2][3][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are down. Supply pressure has increased after some major plants in Shandong resumed production, and downstream demand has not improved significantly [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices are under pressure. New polyethylene plants are planned to start production, and downstream demand for both is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices continue to decline, and the market is affected by high imports and expected demand decline [3]. - Styrene futures prices are down, and downstream purchasing sentiment is not positive [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling. PTA supply is expected to increase, and terminal demand is expected to weaken [5]. - Ethylene glycol prices are at the bottom of the range, and there is a supply - contraction expectation due to Sino - US trade tensions [5]. - Short fiber prices are down, but the spot is firm due to limited new capacity and improved downstream demand [5]. - Bottle chip production is increasing inventory, and demand is expected to weaken after the holiday [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are volatile. The high - import and high - inventory situation has been disrupted, and further changes need to be monitored [6]. - Urea supply is high, and demand is weak. The domestic supply - demand pattern is loose, and the market is likely to remain weak [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak. New production capacity is increasing supply, and trade frictions may affect exports [7]. - Caustic soda futures prices are weak. There is a regional supply difference, and the decline in futures prices is expected to be limited [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak. Supply is high, and demand growth is limited [8]. - Glass prices are down. Inventory pressure is high, and the market is in a weak situation [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★☆★ [1] - Timber: Not rated in a clear star system in the given content - Natural Rubber: Rating not clearly defined in a standard star system in the given content - 20 - number Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, due to various factors such as supply - demand imbalances, weather conditions, and market sentiment, most commodities in the soft - commodity market are facing different degrees of price pressure, and the recommended operation strategies are mainly to wait and see [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - The price of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, and the spot price of cotton remained stable. The purchase price of new cotton was 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the theoretical cost was 13500 - 14400 yuan/metric ton. The price of pure - cotton yarn was weak, and the peak season was not prosperous. Since mid - September, the continuous decline of Zhengzhou cotton has had a negative impact on the purchase price. The new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US trade relations. Temporarily wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, the price of US sugar decreased significantly. In the international market, Brazil's sugar production will remain high, and India and Thailand are expected to increase production. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar continued to decline. The sales rhythm was fast this year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. The market focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. The rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the sugar production is expected to be good. It is expected that the sugar price will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. In Shaanxi, the price of early - picked Fuji remained high, and the late - maturing Fuji had poor coloring due to heavy rainfall. The price of high - quality goods in the northwest was higher than last year, and the spot market was bullish. However, the supply - side lacked positive drivers, and the storage volume of new - season Red Fuji apples was expected to increase. The cold - storage inventory might be higher than expected, and the price faced pressure. Maintain a bearish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The prices of RU, MR, and BR continued to decline, and the market sentiment was weak. The domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubber were stable with a slight decline. The global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded last week. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased. The tire operating rate decreased during the National Day holiday. The inventory of full - steel tires increased, and that of semi - steel tires decreased. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. Demand is gradually recovering, supply pressure is large, spot inventory is decreasing, cost drive is weak, and trade frictions are escalating. Wait and see [5] Pulp - The pulp futures price increased. The spot price of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp remained stable. As of October 10, 2025, the inventory in Chinese ports increased. The pulp supply was relatively loose, and the demand was average. Downstream paper mills continued to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. Temporarily wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price continued to decline, and the spot price remained stable. In October, the price of New Zealand radiata pine increased. The domestic spot price was weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased. The demand was in the peak season, but the growth was not sustainable. The inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was small. The supply - demand situation improved, but the demand - side lacked positive factors. Wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans (Domestic): ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides insights into supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies for each product [2][3][4] - The report suggests that while some products face supply and demand challenges, others show potential for price increases or are in a state of weak oscillation. Investors are advised to pay attention to policy changes, international trade relations, and seasonal factors [6][7][8] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are in a consolidation state after a rebound. The recent auction had a 66.3%成交 rate with an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. Domestic soybeans are stronger than imported ones, and the price difference is widening. Concerns about US soybean export demand may pressure US soybean prices [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of domestic soybean meal futures decreased by 1.16% today. As of October 10, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 812 million tons, showing an increase. Domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a shortage in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations worsen. US soybean sales are slow, and relevant policies are delayed. It is advisable to wait and observe [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil followed the general decline of most commodities today. However, from the perspective of the oil - meal ratio, oils are still stronger than meals. The US soybean price is expected to be pressured by weak demand. The Malaysian palm oil market has weak demand and inventory pressure, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. It is recommended to buy oils at low prices after the price bottoms out [4][5] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures declined today and were among the top decliners in the oil - seed sector. The macro - economic sentiment has a greater impact than the fundamentals. Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply is abundant, and rapeseed is not cost - effective in the demand side. It is recommended to use rapeseed as a short - position in cross - competitor strategies. Canadian rapeseed prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the domestic rapeseed market will likely oscillate weakly [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are oscillating widely at the bottom. The new corn harvest in the northeast may lead to a price decline, but the winter wheat price increase may have an impact. The corn price is currently weak at the bottom, and a policy - based bottom is approaching [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures market rebounded with increased positions. The decline of the spot price has slowed down, and some areas have seen a price rebound. Although the current price is at the bottom historically, there are no obvious bullish factors in the fundamentals. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, which will support the futures contracts of the second half of next year [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs has mixed trends, with some areas rising and others falling. The futures market shows a rebound in the near - term contracts and a decline in the far - term contracts. The mid - term egg price bottom has not been determined, and the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old hens. It is recommended to hold a short position in the near - term contracts and a long position in the far - term contracts [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency with poor trading floor operability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish inclination with low trading floor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, meaning a bearish bias and limited operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the bearish pressure from OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of oil demand persists. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, and short - term attention should be paid to the impact of the Sino - US talks at the APAC meeting at the end of the month on risk sentiment [2] - The absolute price of fuel oil is suppressed by the bearish factors of crude oil and is expected to follow a weak and volatile trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively stable short - term supply - demand structure, but its medium - term outlook is under pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [2] - The supply - demand of asphalt remains in a tight balance. The cracking spread rebounds as asphalt follows the decline of crude oil but with a limited drop. There is a slight inventory build - up expected at the end of 2025, and the far - month contracts are more pressured [3] - The basis of liquefied petroleum gas has been repaired. With OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of associated gas overseas intensifies. The actual demand in the combustion end has not significantly increased during the traditional peak season, and there is a lack of positive support [3] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - During the Asian session, international oil prices fell again, with the SC11 contract dropping 0.64% intraday. Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 4.3%, and the inventory build - up speed has accelerated compared to the first half of the year [2] - New risk - aversion sentiments are triggered by the US government shutdown and the potential resurgence of the Sino - US trade war. Supply may be tightened periodically due to attacks on Russian energy facilities and the risk of sanctions on Russia and Iran. However, the Gaza cease - fire agreement is a new attempt at global geopolitical reconciliation [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is suppressed by the bearish factors of crude oil and is expected to be weak and volatile [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively stable short - term supply - demand structure because of damaged Russian refinery capacity and tightened export expectations. But its medium - term outlook is under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase and potential conflict alleviation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to overseas supply surplus and loose domestic export quotas [2] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt remains in a tight balance. The cracking spread rebounds as asphalt follows the decline of crude oil but with a limited drop [3] - There is a slight inventory build - up expected at the end of 2025. The support from the asphalt fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4, and the far - month contracts are more pressured [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The basis has been repaired as the futures are relatively stronger than the spot. US propane exports have decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume is at a low level [3] - Refinery inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have declined. With OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of associated gas overseas intensifies [3] - The actual demand in the combustion end has not significantly increased during the traditional peak season, and there is a lack of positive support [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with a bullish/ bearish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★, same as above [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is under pressure in the short term due to weak demand, negative feedback in the industrial chain, and macro - environment factors. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Coke and coking coal have support at previous lows, and silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have relatively stable demand and supply situations. External factors such as trade frictions and tariff policies need continuous attention [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. During the long holiday, terminal demand decreased significantly month - on - month and remained weak year - on - year. Production decreased slightly, and inventory increased significantly. The recovery of post - holiday demand needs further observation. With the decline of steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain keeps fermenting. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the steel export in September remained high. The market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of bilateral games and domestic demand stimulus policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month but was stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume rebounded significantly and reached a new high this year. The iron - making water output decreased slightly but remained resilient at a high level. After the National Day, steel mills have a certain restocking demand, but the pressure of future production cuts is increasing. The negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain is strengthening, and the market sentiment has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade [3] Coke - The coke price rebounded after reaching the bottom during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. The profit level is average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. After pre - holiday restocking, downstream enterprises are mainly consuming inventory, and the purchasing intention of traders is general. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water provides support for raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The futures price has a slight premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded after reaching the bottom during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction turnover decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. The terminal inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines actively reduced production efficiency, resulting in a decrease in output. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water provides support for raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The futures price has a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated during the day. The demand side, with high - level iron - making water production. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated during the day. The demand side, with high - level iron - making water production. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].