| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 能 | ☆☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | な女女 | | | 多晶硅 | ななな | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜震荡收阳,尾盘短线交投情绪波动大。与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整 数关有阻力。隔夜美盘铜价创高,美 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月24日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价震荡，布伦特09合约收平。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降316.9万桶，成品油方面 汽油库存下降、馏分燃料油库存增加。美日贸易协议达成，美国对日本对等关税比例自初始版本的 25%下调至15%，但美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍有不确定性,相关利空风险短期大于俄乌、 伊核相应的地缘风险，油价或转为承压震荡为主；随着8月底、9月初伊核、俄乌谈判最终期限的临 近,8月地缘博弈或再次加剧,届时原油市场有望再度获得支撑。 【贵金属】 隔夜黄金回落，白银相对平稳。消息称欧美接近达成贸易协议，欧盟官员称基准关税为15%，美方尚 未予以确认。特朗普称将对大部分国家征收15%至50%的简单关税。美国关税政策截止日前市场不确 定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降，贵金属宽幅震荡为主，高位不宜追涨。 【铜】 隔夜铜价高位震荡，美盘铜价创高，美伦价差走扩至3000美元以上，但LME0-3月贴水52美元。美国 对亲密盟友关税在15%附近,对次围国家在19%附近。近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关 阻力强。 (铝) 隔夜 ...

| Milli | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月24日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属上涨。鲍威尔发表简短讲话未提及货币政策，白宫和美联储的对抗令美联储独立性问题继续受到 关注。近期宏观情绪积极,商品亢奋轮动上涨,贵金属跟随,金银比仍有向下空间。美国关税政策截止日前 市场不确定性仍强,风险情绪易反复,贵金属宽幅震荡为主,不宜追涨。 ★关税 -- 1美国财长贝森特:8月1日对所有国家来说都是一个"较为硬性的最后期限"。欧盟贸易谈判与 俄乌制裁谈判分开进行。日本的谈判进展非常顺利。②加拿大安大略省省长：电力出口税仍在考虑之中。③ 韩国考虑做出痛苦让步,以避免被美国全面征收关税。④特朗普:与菲律宾达成贸易协议,将对菲律宾征收 19%的关 ...

| Milli | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月24日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属上涨。鲍威尔发表简短讲话未提及货币政策，白宫和美联储的对抗令美联储独立性问题继续受到 关注。近期宏观情绪积极,商品亢奋轮动上涨,贵金属跟随,金银比仍有向下空间。美国关税政策截止日前 市场不确定性仍强,风险情绪易反复,贵金属宽幅震荡为主,不宜追涨。 ★关税 -- 1美国财长贝森特:8月1日对所有国家来说都是一个"较为硬性的最后期限"。欧盟贸易谈判与 俄乌制裁谈判分开进行。日本的谈判进展非常顺利。②加拿大安大略省省长：电力出口税仍在考虑之中。③ 韩国考虑做出痛苦让步,以避免被美国全面征收关税。④特朗普:与菲律宾达成贸易协议,将对菲律宾征收 19%的关 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 【国投期货|新品种】铂把系列（二）：全球铂金供需格局 点有成金 1 、全球铂金供需格局 1.1 全球铂金供应集中度高、弹性差 USGS数据显示，南非、津巴布韦、俄罗斯是全球铂金的主要供应国,2024年南非铂金产量同比下滑4%至120 吨，占全球铂金总产量的71%，津巴布韦和俄罗斯铂金产量各自占全球总产量的11%，其他国家产出总占比只有 8%。 长期趋势、新项目执行不达预期,矿山枯竭与停产持续制约供应,全球铂金主产国产出弹性不足。2024年 全球铂金量下滑：巴西Eskom一季度限电、津巴布韦电力中断、Stillwater重组、Impala在加拿大的生产提前下 降等因素共同拖累当年铂产量。 ta 160 140 120 100 氧 主,120 20 71% 0 图 1: 全球铂矿主产国供给弹性差 图 2:2024年全球铂矿产量结构 图 5:2024年全球铂金分地区分领域消费结构 资料来源:资利氏铂金年刊、国投期货 资料来源:资利氏铂金年刊、国投期货 资料来源:USGS、国投期货 资料来源:USGS、国投期货 按照贺利氏（Heraeus）与SFA(0xford)合作完成的2025年销金年刊数据， ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 铂把系列(三):全球把金供需格局 点有成金 1 、全球锂金供需格局 1.1 锂金供应集中度高、弹性差 USGS数据显示，俄罗斯、南非、加拿大、美国是全球把金的主要供应国，2024年俄罗斯和南非的贺金产量 分别占全球总产量的43%和41%，加拿大和美国铝金产量分别占9%和5%，其他国家把金总产量占比近2%。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 图 2:2024年全球把矿产量结构 图 3: 全球把金矿产量与回收量 1.2 锂金全球平衡 其他国家, 世 100 80 俄罗斯, 60 43% 40 20 南非,41 0 俄罗斯 南非 图 1: 全球把矿主产国供给弹性差 资料来源:USGS、国投期货 资料来源:USGS、国投期货 Heraeus的金年刊数据，2024年全球把金总产量同比增0.7吨至25.6吨，其再生比例为28.5%。具体看，2024 年全球肥金矿产量同比增0.6%至183.4吨，2025年Impala Canada产量下降和Stillwater重组拖累下，预计纪金 矿产量同比下降5%至174.8吨。2024年纪金回收量同比仅下降0.6%至73.1吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Platinum and palladium are important members of the platinum - group metals (PGMs), with high demand in practical applications. Their resource distribution is concentrated, and the supply chain has an "oligopoly" structure, which is easily affected by various factors [1][14]. - The platinum - group metal industry chain includes upstream mining, mid - stream processing and recycling, and downstream terminal applications and investment. Each link has its own characteristics and development trends [14]. - The demand for platinum and palladium in different terminal applications varies. For example, palladium is more common in gasoline engine exhaust treatment, while platinum is superior in diesel engine exhaust catalysts. The application of platinum and palladium in emerging industries such as hydrogen energy is expected to grow [41][48]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Variety Overview 3.1.1 Natural Properties - Platinum (Pt) and palladium (Pd) are silver - white metals, belonging to the platinum - group metals (PGMs) along with ruthenium, rhodium, iridium, and osmium. Platinum has a crustal content of five - hundred - millionths, and palladium has a crustal content of one - hundred - millionth [1]. - Platinum has a high melting point, good ductility, excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, high density, and is chemically inert. It is mainly used in industrial catalysts, jewelry, electronics, etc. Palladium has a relatively lower melting point, can adsorb gases like hydrogen, is corrosion - resistant, and is mainly used in the catalyst field [2][4]. 3.1.2 Distribution and Classification of Platinum - Group Resources - Platinum - group metals exist in nature in the form of natural elements and complex ores. Platinum deposits are generally related to ultramafic rocks and can be formed through magma action, hydrothermal processes, and exogenous deposition [5]. - Platinum - group metal ores can be divided into primary deposits and exogenous sand deposits. The primary deposits can be further divided into vein platinum deposits mainly composed of platinum - group metals and copper - nickel - type deposits hosted in ultrabasic rocks [5]. - Global platinum - group metal resources are mainly concentrated in five regions: South Africa's Bushveld Complex, Russia's Norilsk - Talnakh region, the US's Stillwater Complex, Zimbabwe's Great Dyke, and Canada's Sudbury [11]. 3.2 Platinum - Group Metal Industry Chain 3.2.1 Upstream Mining - The platinum - group metal supply chain has an "oligopoly" structure. Most of the raw material supply and smelting are in the hands of a few integrated mining and smelting producers [14]. - In 2024, the global PGMs resource was estimated to exceed 100,000 tons, and the reserves exceeded 81,000 tons. South Africa's PGMs reserves were 63,000 tons, accounting for nearly 80% of the global total [21]. - The production of platinum and palladium mines is facing bottlenecks due to factors such as resource oligopoly, declining ore grades, rising mining costs, and strict environmental policies. In 2024, the global palladium mine production was 190 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.65%, and the platinum mine production was 170 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.02% [25]. 3.2.2 Platinum - Group Material Supply and Recycling - Global precious metal multinational groups such as Umicore, Johnson Matthey, Heraeus, and Tanaka dominate the platinum - group metal material processing and recycling fields [30]. - As high - grade resources become scarce, secondary resources of platinum - group metals are becoming increasingly important. However, domestic recycling enterprises face fierce competition, and the supply of secondary resources is becoming increasingly tight [30]. 3.2.3 Terminal Applications - **Automotive Exhaust Catalysts**: Palladium is more common in gasoline engine exhaust treatment, while platinum is superior in diesel engine exhaust catalysts. The choice of platinum - group metals in catalysts depends on catalytic effect, cost - effectiveness, availability, and exhaust emission standards [41]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is more suitable for high - end jewelry markets due to its high density, good ductility, and chemical stability. Palladium has limited use in jewelry due to its hardness and tendency to darken [45]. - **Other Industrial Applications**: Platinum and palladium are widely used in chemical industry, glass manufacturing, electronics, medical, hydrogen energy, and other fields. Their application in emerging industries such as hydrogen energy is expected to grow [46][48]. 3.2.4 Investment Channels - Platinum can be invested in through physical products (platinum bars, platinum coins), financial products (platinum futures contracts, platinum ETFs), and platinum - related stocks. The investment demand for platinum is increasing, especially in the context of high gold prices [50].

| 11/2 | > 國技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月23日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 影丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | 女女女 | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | 女女女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | ★☆★ | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 | 绅碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 女女女 | 丙烯 | な女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货日内窄幅波动，小幅收跌。宏观消息 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 铂把系列(一)：品种概况与产业链 点有成金 1 、铂锂品种概况 1.1 铂锂的自然属性 钩和把是具有银白色光泽的金属，与铠、钉、钱、钦共同构成铂族金属（PGMs），铂族金属属于贵金属。 实际应用中，铂和兜需求量高于其他PGMs成员。铂族金属中铂、肥是主要金属，铂在地壳中的含量为亿分之 五，把在她壳中的含量亿分之一，钉、铣、绒、绒4个元素在地壳中的含量都只有十亿分之一。 图 1: 铂把在元素周期表中的位置 | 族 周期 | IA | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 红色表示放射性元素 | | | 非金属 | 金属 | | | | | | | | | 1 H | | | | | | 注e的表示人造元素 | | | | | | | | | | | 2 He | | 1 | 氢 | IIA | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global platinum supply is highly concentrated with low elasticity, and the output of major producers is insufficient. In 2024, the global platinum output declined, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2025. The demand for platinum in different regions and fields varies, and the global platinum market has a supply - demand gap [1][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Global Platinum Supply Pattern - **Supply Concentration**: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output decreased by 4% year - on - year to 120 tons, accounting for 71% of the global total. Zimbabwe and Russia each accounted for 11%, and other countries accounted for 8% [1] - **Supply Constraints**: Long - term trends, sub - optimal new project implementation, mine depletion, and shutdowns have continuously restricted supply, resulting in insufficient output elasticity of major global platinum producers. In 2024, factors such as power outages in Brazil and Zimbabwe, restructuring in North America, and early production decline in Canada dragged down platinum output [1] - **Production and Recycling in 2024**: The global platinum output in 2024 was 195.9 tons. The global mined platinum volume decreased by 567 kg year - on - year to 155.9 tons, and the global recycled platinum accounted for 20.4%, with the recycling volume increasing by 3% year - on - year to 39.97 tons [4] - **Production Forecast for 2025**: It is expected that the global mined platinum volume will decline by 4% year - on - year to 150.1 tons in 2025 due to the decline in South African output and the restructuring of Stillwater in North America. The catalyst recycling volume is expected to improve significantly, but the US tariff on cars may drag down the US platinum recycling volume [4] 1.2 Platinum Global Balance - **Consumption Regions and Fields**: The main consumption regions of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. China's demand accounts for 26% of the global total, with industrial demand being the largest. Western Europe and North America account for 20% and 18% respectively, with automotive catalyst demand being the largest. Japan accounts for 9%, mainly in automotive catalysts and jewelry. India's industrial demand is small, but its automotive catalyst and jewelry demand are increasing, and it may exceed Japan in the future [6] - **Demand in 2024**: In 2024, the global demand for platinum group metals decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons. Automotive industry demand decreased by 3% to 63.4 tons, jewelry demand decreased slightly by 0.3 tons to 38.3 tons, industrial demand remained flat at 63.4 tons, and hydrogen energy demand increased slightly by 0.3 tons to 2 tons, accounting for 1% [11] - **Global Platinum Balance Table**: The table shows the changes in mine production, recycling, total demand, and supply - demand balance of global platinum from 2017 to 2025f. The supply gap is expected to widen in 2025 [13]