Report Overview - This report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics [2]. Market Data Commodity Market - From January 5 to January 9, 2026, silver had the highest weekly increase of 9.70% among commodities, followed by coking coal at 7.22%, and aluminum at 6.13%. Polycrystalline silicon had the largest decline of -11.43% [3]. A-share Market - During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 7.92%, the SSE 50 rose 3.40%, and the SHS 300 rose 2.79% [3]. Overseas Stock Market - The Nikkei 225 rose 3.18%, the French CAC 40 rose 2.61%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.35% [3]. Bond Market - The yield of the 2-year Chinese Treasury bond increased by 8.18 bp, the 5-year by 3 bp, and the 10-year by 2.91 bp [3]. Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.88%, the US dollar central parity rate fell -0.23%, and the euro against the US dollar fell -0.95% [3]. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Among 7 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 1 sees a sideways trend. Bullish factors include rising overseas stocks, improved CPI and PPI, policy support, increasing margin trading, and the resonance of fundamental improvement and liquidity easing. Bearish factors include high valuations, potential policy implementation shortfalls, concentrated short - term bullish sentiment, and possible non - interest - rate cuts by the Fed [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 3 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are loose funds, increased entry of institutional investors, and unimproved inflation structure. Bearish factors include concerns about long - term bond supply, strong stock market performance, and expectations of re - inflation trading [4]. Energy Sector - Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the ongoing Middle East conflict, reduced Venezuelan exports, strong US economic data, and geopolitical support for oil prices. Bearish factors are the expected global oil supply surplus in 2026, non - OPEC production expansion, weak winter demand, and limited fundamental improvement [5]. Agricultural Products Sector - Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are strong spot prices, potential seasonal demand improvement, and positive market sentiment. Bearish factors are the expected Brazilian soybean harvest, high domestic inventories, sufficient imports, high feed enterprise inventories, and the resumption of soybean auctions [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are low copper concentrate processing fees, mine strikes in Chile, strong LME spot and high cancelled warrants, government subsidies, and emerging industry demand. Bearish factors are domestic inventory pressure, weak downstream transactions, high - price suppression of consumption, and a decrease in speculative net long positions [6]. Chemical Industry Sector Glass - Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are active mid - stream restocking, reduced daily melting volume, improved spot sales due to rising futures prices, and expected production cuts in Hubei. Bearish factors are high industry inventory, low downstream acceptance of price increases, and weak end - of - year demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 3 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, seasonal demand, and technical upward trends. Bearish factors are margin adjustments, potential index rebalancing selling, and a short - term strong US dollar [7]. Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are stable and rising pig iron production, rising Mongolian coal import prices, pre - holiday steel mill restocking, and expected future supply reduction. Bearish factors are increased Mongolian coal imports, rising domestic coal mine production, and weak downstream demand [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Re bar: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: One red star, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking coal: One red star with one white star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Silicomanganese: Two red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and the market condition is showing on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core View - The steel market has little supply - demand contradiction, with cautious market sentiment, and the trading floor is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to have a strong - side fluctuating trend, considering the supply situation and market policy expectations [4][6] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to buy on dips [7][8] Grouped by Commodity Steel - The steel futures trading floor continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the market sentiment is cautious, with the short - term trading floor continuing the range - bound pattern [2] - The demand for steel in the downstream industries is weak, but the steel exports in December reached a new high [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment decreased seasonally, while the domestic arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the short - term resumption of production is difficult. The steel mills' import ore inventory is still low, and there is still an expectation for winter storage replenishment [3] Coke - The coke trading price increased sporadically, with general coking profit and a slight increase in daily production [4] - The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is at an off - season level, with the steel mills still having a strong intention to suppress prices [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal production decreased slightly, and the spot auction transactions continued to improve, with the terminal inventory increasing slightly [6] - The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased sharply [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The manganese ore spot price increased, and there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory [7] - The iron water production decreased seasonally, and the silicomanganese weekly production and inventory decreased slightly [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rebounded after reaching the bottom. Affected by relevant policies, the price is relatively strong [8] - The iron water production rebounded to a high - level range, and the export demand decreased, but the overall demand is still resilient [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is influenced by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors. Different chemical products show different price trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract opened high and went low, touching the 5 - day moving average. International oil prices are rising, and there is an expected reduction in olefin supply, with good downstream demand [2] - Plastic futures: The main contract closed up in a volatile manner. Cost - end support is strengthening, some spot is tight, and downstream factories replenish stocks as needed [2] - Polypropylene futures: The main contract closed up in a volatile manner. The number of maintenance devices has increased, supply has shrunk, and downstream demand is stable due to pre - holiday order - making [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Spot and futures prices are rising. Cost - end support is obvious due to geopolitical factors, but there is a large inventory and high resistance to destocking in the long - term [3] - Styrene: The main futures contract was sorted out narrowly. Cost - end support is strong, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and exports are improving [3] Polyester - PX and PTA: They continued to fluctuate. The short - term upward drive of PX is weak, but the medium - term outlook is positive. PTA's processing margin has moderately recovered [5] - Ethylene glycol: New domestic devices are about to be put into operation, and overseas devices are shutting down. Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. There is pressure in the short - term, but there may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [5] - Short fiber: Enterprise inventory is low, but downstream orders are weak. Demand will continue to decline, and the price will fluctuate with raw materials [5] - Bottle chip: The operating rate has decreased, inventory has declined, and prices are firm. However, over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The futures market is strong. Overseas device operating rates are low, and port inventory is decreasing. But there are concerns about weakening demand [6] - Urea: The futures market rose strongly. Demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and the market sentiment is positive. The market is expected to be strong in the spring [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: It showed a strong and volatile trend. The operating rate has increased, but demand is weak. There may be arbitrage opportunities in the short - term, and the price is expected to rise in 2026 [7] - Caustic soda: It is operating weakly. The chlorine market is good, but the industry is generally in the red. There is pressure from inventory accumulation [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: It showed a strong and volatile trend. Supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8] - Glass: It is operating weakly. Production capacity is being compressed, demand is insufficient, but there may be long - term low - buying opportunities after the decline [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Pulp: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Sugar: Bullish (represented by three stars) [1] - Apple: Bullish (represented by three stars) [1] - Timber: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - 20 - rubber: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Natural rubber: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Butadiene rubber: Bullish (represented by three stars) [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities, including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber. It provides market conditions, supply - demand situations, and inventory data for each commodity and suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach for investment operations [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly increased, and the spot trading of cotton was average with a decrease in low - basis spot. As of the end of December, the national commercial inventory of cotton was 5.7847 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11011 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.00996 million tons. As of January 8th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 6.969 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.0633 million tons. The policy of reducing the planting area in Xinjiang has been implemented, but the actual reduction is still uncertain. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials remains resilient, but downstream orders are average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the international market, the production data in the first half of December in the central - southern region of Brazil was neutral. The current crushing season is coming to an end, with a seasonal decline in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production. The market's focus has shifted to the production forecast of the next season. Meteorological models show that the rainfall in the main Brazilian producing areas in the first quarter may be lower than the historical average. The sugar - alcohol ratio has significantly adjusted, and the sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 season is expected to decline, resulting in a decrease in Brazil's sugar production. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The sales data was on the positive side, but the significant decline in sales was due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there is a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress has been slow. If the production does not increase later, the futures price will rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price continued to rise. In Gansu, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was high, and the trading was good. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price remained stable. With the start of the Spring Festival stocking, merchants mainly packed their own supplies for the market, and the purchase of farmers' apples was less. Some merchants were looking for high - quality apples, but such supplies were scarce, and the trading volume was average. As of January 8th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03%. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 0.2873 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.37%. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. The quality of apples this year is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the hoarding sentiment of traders and farmers is strong, which may affect the destocking speed. It is advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all increased, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber also rose. The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - reducing period, with the Chinese producing areas fully stopped and the Vietnamese producing areas gradually stopping production. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, while the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise. In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, with passenger cars being weak and commercial vehicles being strong. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate continued to decline. The finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises decreased for all - steel tires and continued to rise for semi - steel tires. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 0.5682 million tons, and the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber increased to 15,100 tons last week, while the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 41,300 tons. In December 2025, China's import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was about 0.9532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.5% and a month - on - month increase of 20.6%. China's automobile export volume was 994,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 73.2% and a month - on - month increase of 21.4%, while the import volume was 30,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 30.4%. Overall, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, rubber inventory is increasing, cost support is strong, the government has reduced leverage, and market sentiment is unstable. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures generally remained stable. Due to weak downstream demand, the short - term upward potential of pulp is limited. The spot price of softwood pulp is 5,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5,350 yuan/ton; the price of hardwood pulp "Golden Fish" is 4,730 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.007 million tons, a cumulative increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, with inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp provides some support for softwood pulp, and the overseas offers for both softwood and hardwood pulp have been raised recently. Paper mills purchase pulp mainly for rigid demand, and the increase in the price of base paper is relatively weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the price increase of downstream base paper. It is advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. The overseas offer has been lowered, and the domestic spot price remains weak, with a short - term decrease in the arrival volume. As of January 9th, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 57,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%. Demand has decreased in the off - season but is still relatively high on a week - on - week basis. As of January 9th, the total log inventory at national ports was 2.69 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The total national log inventory is relatively low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Low inventory provides some support for the price. It is advisable to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Platinum: ★☆☆, implying a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Palladium: ★☆★, showing a relatively stronger bullish bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall precious metals market remains prone to rising and difficult to fall. Gold and silver continue their breakthrough trends, while the volatility of platinum and palladium has decreased, with the potential to challenge previous highs [1] - The 12 - month unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US remained flat at 2.7% in December, in line with expectations, and the core CPI was 2.6%, slightly lower than expected. Trump criticized Powell again, calling for significant interest rate cuts [1] - The situation in Iran is highly tense. Trump has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials. The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran, and Vance is scheduled to meet with the national security team this morning to formulate a strategy against Iran [1][2] - The "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said that the December CPI is unlikely to change the Fed's current wait - and - see attitude. To resume interest rate cuts, Fed officials may need to see new evidence of deteriorating labor market conditions or weakening price pressures [2] - In the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week according to the ADP weekly employment report [2] 3. Summaries by Related Content Macroeconomic Data - US December unadjusted CPI annual rate remained flat at 2.7%, in line with expectations; core CPI was 2.6%, slightly lower than expected [1] - In the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week [2] Fed's Attitude - The 12 - month CPI is unlikely to change the Fed's current wait - and - see attitude. To resume interest rate cuts, Fed officials may need to see new evidence of deteriorating labor market conditions or weakening price pressures, which may require at least a few more months of inflation data [2] Geopolitical Situation - The situation in Iran is highly tense. Trump has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials. The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran, and Vance is scheduled to meet with the national security team this morning to formulate a strategy against Iran [1][2] Precious Metals Market - Precious metals are generally prone to rising and difficult to fall. Gold and silver continue their breakthrough trends, while the volatility of platinum and palladium has decreased, with the potential to challenge previous highs. Attention is focused on US PPI and retail sales data tonight [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Alumina: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Tin: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows complex trends, with different metals affected by various factors such as geopolitics, supply and demand, and cost [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Wednesday saw Shanghai copper increase positions and fluctuate at a high level, with the market competing around 105,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was at 103,915 yuan. Futures warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 27,000 tons to 149,300 tons. Attention is on the impact of the Iran geopolitical situation on precious metals trading sentiment [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell again. Spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 80 yuan, - 240 yuan, and 60 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods widened to - 200 yuan. Short - term bullish sentiment in precious and non - ferrous metals is still strong. The fundamentals deviate to some extent, and speculation should be cautious. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, in a state of significant surplus. The average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan has dropped to around 2,600 yuan. The spot price of alumina is under pressure, and short - selling can be considered when the basis is low [2] Zinc - Funds continue to flow into the zinc market, and the capital congestion degree further increases. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumer side, and the divergence between bulls and bears increases. The zinc price has recovered all the declines in 2025, and the callback pressure is gradually increasing. Short positions can be considered above 24,800 yuan/ton, and the support at 23,000 yuan/ton should be watched during the callback [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. The inventory of pure nickel increased by 2,000 tons to 59,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 855,000 tons. The short - term market is dominated by policy sentiment, and downstream buyers can buy at low prices [6] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin hit the daily limit for the second time this week. The spot tin price adjusted to 485,500 yuan, and the warehouse receipts increased by 862 tons to 7,107 tons. High prices suppress demand, while supply remains stable. Short - term attention should be paid to the silver market rhythm, and holding short - call options until expiration can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate dived and then rebounded during the session. The sales strategy of upstream brine plants is changing. The overall demand maintains strong resilience. The market inventory increased for the first week, but the downstream inventory decreased rapidly. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, but short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon maintains a volatile trend, with weak supply and demand fundamentals. The overall spot price of industrial silicon is stalemate, and the futures price follows the volatile trend [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased positions and fluctuated. The price of polysilicon M - type re - feed material is 51,000 - 58,500 yuan/ton. The trading logic of polysilicon has changed, and the market sentiment has significantly cooled down. Participation should be cautious [10]

过剩压力加剧， 重心继续下移 国投期货2026年铁矿石年度策略 El 3 国投期货研究院 黑色金属高级分析师 韩惊 Z0016533 20260114 //////// 走势回顾 · 2025年初受澳大利亚飓风的影响，供应阶段性趋紧，价格维持高位震荡。此后随着全球主要矿 山产能稳步释放、国内终端需求复苏偏弱以及外部贸易摩擦扰动，铁矿石价格进入下行通道。 下半年在"反内卷"政策预期升温的推动下,矿价曾跟随黑色系整体反弹，但上方始终受供应 增长的压制，下方则有高铁水产量的支撑，铁矿价格也在反弹过后转入窄幅区间震荡。 2025年铁矿石走势回顾 数据来源： Wind，国投期货整理 圳川 海外需求预计温和复苏 · 2025年海外生铁产量小幅下滑，近两年除了印度产量仍能保持增长外，目韩等其余主要生铁生 产国的产量相对低迷。展望2026年，美联储仍处于降息通道，但降息的次数和幅度将受到制约， 较难出现大规模宽松的情况，而我国钢材出口在价格优势仍存的情况下，预计仍将保持一定韧 性。我们预计2026年海外生铁产量增长0.5%，折合铁矿需求增加350万吨左右。 全球除中国外高炉生铁产量季节图 (万吨) 4200 4000 380 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and current investment value [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment timing [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish tendency but low market operability [1] - Corn: ★★★, demonstrating a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Pig: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Egg: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, pig, and egg, and provides corresponding investment ratings and strategies [1][2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are undergoing a correction after reaching a high, with profit - taking at the peak. Short - term policy increases grain supply, but the supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, and demand is cautious. Attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the USDA report, US soybeans are in a weak oscillation. China's soybean imports reached a record high last year. Domestic oil mills' production is increasing for peak - season demand. The probability of ENSO neutrality in Q1 is 75%, and the focus returns to US soybean exports and South American weather. If the South American weather is stable, soybean meal prices will follow the weak trend of US soybeans [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean oil is strong due to positive biodiesel expectations, although the USDA report cut its biodiesel use. Palm oil had a short - term price correction after Indonesia's B50 policy stance. The current rise is driven by demand expectations and policies, but supply factors like South American soybean harvest and Malaysian palm oil inventory should also be considered, with a range - bound view [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products declined today as the market focuses on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. There are expectations of a “loosening” of China - Canada rapeseed trade policies. Coastal oil mills' Australian rapeseed is not yet processed, and inventories are falling. If China - Canada relations do not improve as expected, rapeseed prices may rebound. This week, rapeseed prices are expected to be weak [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are in a weak oscillation, and US corn is still seeking a bottom. Policy - based grain supply is increasing, but overall inventory is low, and sellers are reluctant to sell. Downstream enterprises are starting the Spring Festival stocking. The main driving factors are unclear, and futures will be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [7] Pig - The pig futures market is rising with increased positions, and the 03 contract hit a new high. Spot prices are stable. The strength of the macro and commodity markets is spreading to the pig market. However, due to increased supply, pig prices may hit a second bottom next year. Attention should be paid to the game between pre - Spring Festival supply and demand [8] Egg - Egg spot prices are slightly stronger, and the Hebei price is rising. The futures market is weak. Chicken - chick replenishment from August to December last year decreased by about 10% year - on - year, leading to a low number of new - laying hens in H1 2026. Egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in H1 2026. With pre - Spring Festival demand and supply reduction, egg prices are expected to rise. For H1 2026 contracts, a long - at - low strategy or a long - near - short - far strategy is recommended [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - Geopolitical risks are driving up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus and the lack of confirmed conflicts. Precious metals remain bullish, and various commodities and financial products show different trends affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations. [2][3] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: US December CPI data boosts market expectations for a rate cut in April. API shows a significant weekly inventory build. Geopolitical tensions in Iran drive up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus in Q1 2026. [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows crude oil price movements. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand as a substitute for asphalt if Venezuelan heavy - oil supply is disrupted. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to increase, with a weakening fundamental outlook. [22] - **Asphalt**: Iranian geopolitical tensions lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, but asphalt's price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil. [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US December CPI data and Iranian tensions make precious metals bullish. [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper shows signs that support domestic refined copper exports. Chile raises its copper production target. [4] - **Aluminum**:沪铝 tests historical highs, but the break - through is unconfirmed. High profits prompt aluminum plants to consider selling - hedging. [5] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rise, but high prices may have a negative impact on downstream consumption. [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**:沪镍 falls, while stainless - steel market activity is high. Inventory changes show different trends for pure nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel. [10] - **Tin**:沪锡 trading is driven by increased funds. Indonesian tin exports are significant, and option trading amplifies price fluctuations. [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is active. Upstream sales strategies change, and demand remains strong. Inventory changes vary among different sectors. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: It has a weak supply - demand situation. Reduced production in the north is not enough to offset weak demand from downstream industries. [13] - **Polysilicon**: Prices continue to decline. The market trading logic has changed, and caution is advised. [14] Steel - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a bullish - oscillating trend. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream iron - water production may bottom - out and rebound. [17][18] - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Both suggest a strategy of buying on dips. They are affected by factors such as raw material prices, inventory, and demand from the iron - making industry. [19][20] - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern. Demand is weak, and supply is gradually recovering. [15] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is in a stalemate. Production increases, and downstream demand shows mixed trends. Short - term prices may decline slightly, but the downward space is limited. [24] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical factors cause significant price fluctuations. Overseas supply is low, but domestic demand is weakening, and the driving force for price increases is weakening. [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Cost - driven short - term price increases, but the fundamental situation is weak, and long - term de - stocking is difficult. [26] - **Styrene**: Cost - support is strengthened, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Rising oil prices are beneficial to the market. Supply and demand show different trends for each product. [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may strengthen in the long - term with potential de - capacity. Caustic soda is in a weak state, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration may be compressed. [29] - **PX & PTA**: Geopolitical risks drive up prices, but downstream demand is weakening. [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations, and the long - term outlook is still under pressure. [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Demand for both is weakening in the short - term. Cost is the main driving factor, and long - term over - capacity is a pressure. [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is bearish. South American weather and US soybean exports are important factors to watch. [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The market is affected by bio - diesel expectations and supply - side factors. It is expected to be range - bound. [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The US Department of Agriculture report indicates a loose supply - demand situation. The market is affected by Sino - Canadian relations and inventory levels. [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybean prices are回调. Supply is tight at the grassroots level, but demand is cautious. [39] - **Corn**: The US corn harvest is large, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. It is expected to fluctuate widely. [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The futures market is oscillating. Short - term supply pressure is high, and long - term prices may form a double - bottom pattern. [41] - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to strengthen in the first half of 2026 due to reduced supply and increased demand. [42] - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is bullish, but the domestic market is in the off - season. Demand is stable, and the planting area policy in Xinjiang is uncertain. [43] - **Sugar**: International sugar production shows different trends in different countries. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to increase, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. [44] - **Apple**: Apple futures prices rise. The market focus shifts to demand, and the high - quality fruit supply is tight. [45] - **Wood & Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is in the off - season. Low inventory provides some support. [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices are stable. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. [47] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share markets are expected to be range - bound and strong. Geopolitical situations need to be closely monitored. [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures show a bullish - flattening trend. The strategy of flattening the yield curve is recommended. [49] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: Maersk's price cuts indicate a weakening market. The 04 - contract valuation lacks a clear anchor, and far - month contracts are under pressure due to the expected resumption of Red Sea shipping. [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report The USDA's January cotton monthly report is bullish as the US cotton production is下调 more than expected, the global production is slightly adjusted, the global cotton demand increases slightly, and the ending stocks are下调. Although the global cotton supply may still be relatively loose, the surplus pressure has decreased, and the low price of US cotton may drive a slight rebound. The planting situation in the Northern Hemisphere should be monitored in the medium term [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: The global production in the 2025/26 season is下调 by 77,000 tons. India's production is下调 by 108,000 tons, the US production is下调 by 77,000 tons, and Turkey's production is下调 by 44,000 tons, while China's production is上调 by 218,000 tons. The US yield per acre is下调 from 929 pounds to 856 pounds, the harvested area is上调 from 7.37 million acres to 7.8 million acres, and the planted area is slightly下调 from 9.3 million acres to 9.28 million acres [1]. - **Consumption**: The global consumption in the 2025/26 season is环比上调 by 68,000 tons, with China's consumption上调 by 109,000 tons to 8.491 million tons, and the overall global consumption remains stable [1]. - **Imports**: The global cotton imports in the 2025/26 season are环比上调 by 5,000 tons. Turkey's imports are下调 by 21,000 tons, and India's imports are上调 by 43,000 tons, while the other major importing countries remain unchanged [1]. - **Exports**: The global exports are上调 by 6,000 tons. Australia's exports are上调 by 44,000 tons, and India's exports are上调 by 22,000 tons [1]. - **Ending Stocks**: The global ending stocks in the 2025/26 season are环比下调 by 324,000 tons. China's ending stocks are上调 by 109,000 tons, India's ending stocks are下调 by 261,000 tons, the US ending stocks are下调 by 66,000 tons, and Australia's ending stocks are下调 by 43,000 tons [2]. Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: The total global production in the 2025/26 - January is 26.004 million tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 208,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Consumption**: The total global consumption in the 2025/26 - January is 25.891 million tons, an increase of 68,000 tons compared to the previous month and a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Imports**: The total global imports in the 2025/26 - January are 9.527 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Exports**: The total global exports in the 2025/26 - January are 9.53 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Ending Stocks**: The total global ending stocks in the 2025/26 - January are 16.217 million tons, a decrease of 324,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year [3].